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Gradual Release of Responsibility Planning Template

Standard(s) and Objectives

Develop a probability model and use it to find
probabilities of events. Compare probabilities
from a model to observed frequencies; if the
agreement is not good, explain possible sources
of the discrepancy
Students will be able to apply basic probability
and statistics to determine the theoretical sample

Skills and Practices

Students will need basic understanding of algebra and
probability calculations. Students will already
understand graphing data and determining averages
such as mean, median, mode, and range

Reason abstractly and quantitatively.

Construct viable arguments and critique the
reasoning of others.
Model with mathematics.
Use appropriate tools strategically.
I Do (Model / All Teacher)

Provide example to calculate probability model. Set up data set of 60 tails and 40 heads for a normal coin. Ask
what the probability is for the next flip to be a head. Explain the distribution is always 50/50 no matter the
history due to the potential outcomes. Add in how a 6 sided di works as well in a way that it relates. Ask if we
were to roll the di six times theoretically how many of each value will we get.

We Do (Joint Responsibility)
Introduce a 52 card deck. Ask how what the probability is for each card. How do we know? For each value?
For each suite? If we randomly draw 13 cards, how many 7s will we expect to get? How many hearts? What
can we say about 3.25?

You Do (Guided Practice)

Provide handout of the rectangle broken into four parts. Tell students to group with a partners and to assume
that if this was the bottom of a box and you dropped 40 balls into the box, how many would you expect to
land on each section? Students must explain their answers

You Do (Independent Practice)

Students will perform the below dart task. Students will hopefully be able to apply the what they have
attempted from the group work.

Differentiated Instruction
To assist students that are struggling, a final class discussion will be had that is based on student answers to
the independent work. This will allow students to relate to the answers that others had given and allow for the
class to build on this to better understand by seeing other ways to get the answer or to get from a point they
are stuck on to the answer.
An option for students that have gotten through the task quickly may be given another similar task where they
solve the same question with an actual dart board.

Dart Throwing
In a dart throwing activity, points are awarded based upon where the dart hits within the target. The
diameter of the inner circle is 4 meters. The diameter of the outer circle is 8 meters.
100 darts hit randomly within the target. Based on theoretical probability, how many points would be
earned with these 100 hits?