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EBC Rhode Island Chapter Program:

Update from Rhode Islands


Environmental & Energy Leadership
Welcome

Alan Shoer

Vice Chair, EBC Rhode Island Chapter

Partner, Adler Pollock & Sheehan P. C.

Environmental Business Council of New England


Energy Environment Economy
Introduction

Dorian Boardman
Program Chair and Moderator

President, Boardman Ecological Services

Environmental Business Council of New England


Energy Environment Economy
Update from Rhode Island
Department of Environmental Management
Janet Coit

Director
Department of Environmental Management
State of Rhode Island

Environmental Business Council of New England


Energy Environment Economy
Update from Rhode Island
Office of Energy Resources
Carol Grant

Commissioner
Office of Energy Resources
State of Rhode Island

Environmental Business Council of New England


Energy Environment Economy
Update from Rhode Island
Coastal Resources Management Council
Grover Fugate

Executive Director
Coastal Resources Management Council
State of Rhode Island

Environmental Business Council of New England


Energy Environment Economy
Land water
storage changes Ocean currents change
Ice melts into
Land can Warm water the ocean
rise or sink expands

(IPCC, 2001)
Sea-level rise rates since the Last Glacial
Maximum

mwp-Ia

Rate of SLR (mm/yr)


mwp-Ib

Global delta initiation


(Stanley and Warne, 1994)

U.S. Atlantic, U.K.


wetland initiation;
barrier island stability
(Shennan and Horton, 2002;
Engelhart et al., 2009)

Thousands of 14C years before present


(SLR rate based on Fairbanks, 1989; ice extent from Dyke, 2004)
Global variability in SLR
Loss of the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet can
cause up to 25% more
SLR on the U.S. coast.

(Eric Steig)

(Bamber et al., 2009)


Question-Does 6.6 seem to be a high
estimate of SLR?
Just released this week Global High Estimate is 2.5 meters.
Regional adjustment and additional .5 meters
Total 3 meters
Conversion 9 feet 10 inches.
Astronomical High Tide 2 feet, that is the better part of 12 feet.
Three Threats the Plan will Address

Sea Level Rise


Storm effects
Erosion
These forces interact in a synergistic fashion adds
to their destructive force.
For example one foot of sea level rise jumps the recurrence level so that the once in one
hundred year storm now has a return probability of one in fifty. Two feet and that jumps once
in 25 years and 5 feet is like having a once 100 year storm once a day.
Flood Zones(2009, left and 2013, right) Misquamicut Barrier

2-3 ft reduction in Base


Flood Elevation (BFE)
Assumption on the profile of the eroded
dunes, does not match our actual observations.

Under estimate of the wave conditions at


the end of the transects, 4 m significant wave
height (FEMA), present study (7 m).

Too few transects to represent spatial


variability in the study area (violates FEMA
guidance).

1 D wave model (FEMA) cannot capture 2-


D wave processes (STWAVE).
STWAVE predictions in flooded areas
Misquamicut area, Winnapaug pond - Quonochontaug pond

NACCS resolution at a coastal inlets


New HR mesh for the entire RI; NOAA's
Office for Coastal Management project
Visualizations
Maps flooding from a
25, 50, 100-year
storm, PLUS Sea
Level Rise
A future look of future
flooding risk

Applications
Day-to-Day operations
Long term
planning/financing

StormTools:
Maps of Storms+Sea Level Rise
Cautionary note: Astronomical High Tides or wind driven
tide events, that occur throughout the year can add as
much as 2 feet to a normal tide. Thus if you are
concerned about building impacts and you want to know
what one foot of SLR will do your structure you may want
to look at the 3 foot maps to assess impacts.
StormTools:
Maps of Storms+Sea Level Rise

Also provides flooding depth at


specific points

http://www.beachsamp.org/maps/stormtools
PROJECTING FUTURE SHORELINE CHANGE

Our approach; present three scenarios:

Historic rate of change + uncertainty in shoreline position


(Ea)

Exponential rate of Shoreline Change + uncertainty in


shoreline position (Ea)

Low Scenario rate of shoreline change doubles by


2100

High Scenario rate of shoreline change increases by


2.5X by 2065 (1 m of SLR) (Moore et al., 2007; Anderson et al., 2015)
CERI Building Blocks
Water levels (100 yr or specific storm event) for flooding, with or without SLR,
available from STORMTOOLs.
(http://www.beachsamp.org/resources/stormtools/)
Wave estimates (100 yr) for flood inundated areas, with and without SLR
based on state of the art wave models.
Shoreline change (erosion/accretion) estimates based on most recent 2016 RI
CRMC shoreline change maps.
Damage functions by structure or infrastructure type based on data from
superstorm Sandy (2012) (US Army Corp of Engineers(ACOE)/FEMA)).
Location/identification of individual structures and infrastructure from E911
and town and state data bases.
CERI Application Case Example - Eastern end of Matunuck Beach
URI Ocean Engineering, Senior Design Class (2015-2016)
Army Corp Engineers-North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal
Study (NACCS) Structure Type
A B

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Total Damage: 100 yr (left) and 100 yr with 5 ft SLR (right)
Total water level, Charlestown,100 yr surge, dunes intact
and eroded

Dunes Dunes
Intact eroded
Projected shoreline
erosion (red),
exponential high,
2100, Charlestown,
RI
Total water level, Charlestown,100 yr surge, 7 ft
SLR, dunes eroded

7 ft
SLR
No SLR
CERI BFE (left panel) and FEMA BFE (right panel)
The Problem with the FEMA maps
Actuarial based system- in todays world that is like driving down 95 only
using your rear view mirror.
Current code requires 1 foot of freeboard above base flood elevation (BFE)
We are expecting 1 foot of SLR in 20 years
That means when you reach the end of your 30 year mortgage you are
below BFE
FEMA is $23 billion in debt and headed towards full actuarial rates
So do you build for todays world or tomorrows?
Warwick 100-yr Storm, 7 ft SLR
Maximum Structural Damage (% value)

White dots
below new
MSL

Black dots,
eroded
shoreline,
2100
Wind Protocol http://callcarefirst.com/for-home/wind-damage/

1. Location of Structure

2. Structure Type

3. Surface Roughness

4. Distribution

5. Wind Gust Speed

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Results: Damage from Wind Structures in Damage State 1 with most likely wind
damage of 10%

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Results: Damage from Wind Structures in Damage State 2 with most likely wind damage of
30%:

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Structures in Damage State 3 with most likely wind damage of
Results: Damage from Wind 60%: 2 story, Gable Roof, Wood Frame, 6d Nails, Toe-nail

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EXPOSED RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES: COMBINED
21 COASTAL COMMUNITIES

Scenarios
Rank SLR 3 ft SLR 5 ft SLR 7 ft 100 YR STORM SURGE
1 South Kingstown Westerly Westerly Warwick
2 Westerly South Kingstown South Kingstown Barrington
3 Narragansett Newport Warwick South Kingstown
4 Charlestown Narragansett Narragansett Warren
5 Tiverton Warren Newport Westerly
Coastal Property Guide
Informs Landowners and Buyers

Coastal features
CRMC water type classifications
FEMA flood zones
Flood insurance, program/premiums
Coastal hazards: sea-level rise and
erosion
Shoreline protection structures
Coastal hazards: storms & floods
Existing buildings
Septic system requirements
Structural resilience
http://www.beachsamp.org/
coastalpropertyguide/
FORTIFIEDTM
Retrofit/Build to Reduce Potential Damage

Focus on Key Components


Roof, walls, windows, doors, equipment
The right products and installation
Proper elevation

https://www.disastersafety.org
The Plan and Tools
CRMC SLR
Guidance (2016)
Sea Level Rise (SLR) 1 ft 2035
2 ft 2050
7 ft 2100
Steps for Addressing Coastal Hazards in Coastal
Development Planning
1. Establish project design life for
proposed project.

2. Determine how Acting Forces


may constrain the project site and
Access Site.

3. Examine how the project and


Acting Forces may impact coastal
resources and public access over its
design life.

4. Identify design alternatives to


avoid or minimize resource impacts
and risks to the project.

5. Finalize project design and


submit permit application.
Building Tools in Partnership
Open Discussion
Moderator: Dorian Boardman, Boardman Ecological Services

Panelists:
Janet Coit
RI Department of Environmental Management
Carol Grant
RI Office of Energy Resources
Grover Fugate
RI Coastal Resources Management Council

Environmental Business Council of New England


Energy Environment Economy
EBC Rhode Island Chapter Program:

Update from Rhode Islands


Environmental & Energy Leadership