1/17/2017 WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?

|TheNational

FanswaveTurkishflagspriortowhattheorganiserssaidwasafootballmatchagainstterrorisminIstanbul.(APPhoto)

WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?
FaisalAlYafai

Follow@FaisalAlYafai

December26,2016 Updated:December27,201609:40AM

Related Ayearthatwontendishow2016issometimesperceived.Ayearof
surprisesbothpoliticallyandculturally,itwillsoonbeconsignedtohistory,
evenastheconsequencesofitsmoststartlingeventstheretakingof
Aleppo,theelectionofDonaldTrumponlybegintobeunderstood.

If2016wasayearofsurprises,2017willbe,intheMiddleEast,ayearof
decisions.Ayearwhengovernmentsintheregionwillhavetomakehard,
binarychoicesandtodosoinaworldwherepowerfulcountrieshave
Russiaseconomyis alsobecomeincreasinglyhardheadedabouttheirpriorities.Themain
weakfearisPutinsonly
weapon
questioninmanycapitalcitieswillbe:whatmattersmore?

WhyPutinsironfist
policywillnotworkin
Turkey
Dozenskilledin
BaghdadasFrancois
HollandevisitsIraq
USneedstorebuild
tieswithGulfAraballies
asTrumppresidency
begins
Nowempowered,Iran
willtakeabolder
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/whatshouldthemiddleeastdoin2017
Syriaistheaxisaroundwhichthisquestionwillrevolve.If,asnowseems
inevitable,theAssadregimeretrenchesitselfalongthewesternstripfrom
DamascustoAleppo,manycountrieswillhavetodecidewhatmatters
moretothem,opposingabloodyregimeormakingapragmaticalliance.
ManyofthebiggestMiddleEasternstates,includingTurkeyandEgypt,are
alreadysignallingtheirintentions.
Turkey,morethanmost,willfaceabinarychoice.Thedayswhenits
president,RecepTayyipErdogan,wasvehementlyantiAssadappearto
havepassed,forgottenastheSyrianrefugeecrisissettledinlargepartin
TurkishcitiesandKurdishmilitiassawtheirchancetocarveoutastatelet
alongtheTurkishborder.
1/7
1/17/2017 WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?|TheNational
approachintheregion Ankarawillthereforehavetochoose:eitheritcanworkwiththeSyrian
regimetohalttheattemptatKurdishstatehoodinnortheastSyriaand
defeatISIL,oritcancontinuetosupportthepatchworkofrebelgroups.
Alreadyitappearstobepreferringtheformerandpublicreactiontothe
shockingvideolastweekofISILmurderingtwoTurkishsoldiersmay
cementthatdecision.

AsimilarquestionwillariseonIran.IfDonaldTrumpcomesintoofficein
WashingtonandismuchharderonIranashisappointmentofJames
MattisasdefencesecretarysuggestsmanyintheGulfwillapplaud.

AyearofMrTrumpmayweakenIran,causingitatfirsttorampupits
proxywarsintheregion,but,eventually,tocoolthemdownasitsfinances
arestretched.Thequestionthenwillbe:whatmattersmore?CanIranbe
tamed,assomeintheGulfwouldprefer,ormustitbeincorporatedin
somecapacity?ThisquestionoverIranisnotgoingaway.Theconditions
foritsaskinghavenotyetmaterialised,but,dependingonwhathappensin
Washingtoninthecomingmonths,theymaysoon.

Thosearethehardquestions.Therewillalsobemucheasierones.On
ISIL,therewillbenoneedforchoices,simplybecausethereisnoroomfor
negotiationwiththegroup.Theonlyquestionwillbehowtobestdegradeit
andhowtoprepareforthenextstageofISILs"jihad",oncetheyare
forcedoutoftheirstrongholds.

Allofthesequestionswillrequirecarefulpolicyandcoordinationamong
neighboursandallies.Therewill,inevitably,betradeoffs.Buttheyalso
ariseatatimeintheMiddleEastwhenothersaroundtheworldaremore
hardheadedintheirpriorities,inparticulartheUnitedStatesandRussia.

ForRussia,2016wasitsfirstfullyearofopenlybackingtheSyrianregime
indeed,thefirsttimeformanyyearsthatithasputsomanyresources
behindagovernmentnotpreviouslypartoftheSovietUnion.Russiasrole
inSyriahasbeendecidedlyhardheaded:ithasignoredinternational
normsanditsstandingintheWestfornarrowpoliticalgain.

ItistooearlytoguesswhatMrTrumpwilldo,buttheindicationsarethat
hewill,too,besimilarlyhardheaded.AmericasfocuswillbeonMosulin
IraqandRaqqainSyriaandlittleelse.DespiteMrTrumpsbelligerence
towardsChina,itseemstheoneregionheisunwillingtopickafightwithis
thisone.

Thathardheadednesswillruboff.Ifthereweredaysoryearsof
idealismintheMiddleEastaftertheArabSpring,theyarenowforgotten.

Syria,LibyaandYemenhavebecomenarrowsecurityproblemstobe
solved,notplacestopractisepostrevolutionarynationbuilding.Themore
expansiverolesthatEgypt,TurkeyandSaudiArabiaonceimaginedfor
themselveswillhavetotakeabackseattosecurityandfinancialstability.

Somewillseethatasacounselofdespair.ButthewarsoftheMiddleEast
haveprofoundlychangedpolicycalculations.Noproblemswith
neighbours,asTurkeysforeignministeroncesuggested,hasgivenwayto
problemseverywhere.

IftheearlyyearsofBarackObamaspresidencywerecharacterisedby
hopeandthepossibilityofchangeintheMiddleEast,thefirstyearsofMr
Trumpspresidencywillmeanretrenchmentandanarrowfocusinthe
regionscapitals.ItisaprofoundironyofhistorythatitisinpartduetoMr
ObamasactionsoverIranandinactionoverSyriathattheregionfinds
itselfinthatposition.

http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/whatshouldthemiddleeastdoin2017 2/7
1/17/2017 WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?|TheNational

falyafai@thenational.ae

OnTwitter:@FaisalAlYafai

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