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13-02-2017 Weekly Derivatives Synopsis

PARTICULARS Last Closing Previous Week % Change Index Outlook


NIFTY SPOT 8794 8741 0.6 Derivatives: Last week, Nifty maintained its uptrend through a
NIFTY FUTURES 8809 8754 0.6 3.27% rise in open interest, indicating long build up. Nifty Put call
BANKNIFTY SPOT 20214 20197 0.1 ratio currently stands at 1.12, which is placed close to the
overbought condition. Technically, last week, the index saw
BANKNIFTY FUTURES 20273 20256 0.1
consolidation in the range of 8720-8820 after a smart up-move and
NIFTY PCR 1.12 1.08 3.7
formed Doji candlestick pattern which indicates uncertainty.
NIFTY PCR-VOL 1.01 1.02 -1.0
Technically, 8890-8920 will act as strong resistance for the next
NIFTY OI(In Mn) 23.62 22.87 3.3 week whereas 8530-8540 will act as support. Index is trading above
BANKNIFTY OI(In Mn) 2.9 2.8 3.6 all the major moving averages, indicating uptrend. Thus, any dip
INDIA VIX 13.17 13.12 0.4 around 8650-8600 can be used for buying for the target of 8890-
NIFTY HV 13.43 15.17 -11.5 8920 for the short term.
Nifty Basis Points 15.8 13 21.5

Nifty OI Trend Nifty Fut Vs Pcr


8900 1.40
9,000 30
8800 1.35

8700 1.30
8,800 25
1.25
8600
1.20
8,600 20 8500
1.15
Nifty OI (Mn.)

Nifty

8400

PCR
1.10
8,400 15 8300
1.05
Nifty

8200
1.00
8,200 10 8100 0.95
8000 0.90
8,000 5
7900 0.85
7800 0.80
7,800 0

2-Feb
4-Feb
6-Feb
8-Feb
10-Feb
3-Jan
5-Jan
7-Jan
9-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
2-Jan
3-Jan
4-Jan
5-Jan
6-Jan
9-Jan
10-Jan
11-Jan
12-Jan
13-Jan
16-Jan
17-Jan
18-Jan
19-Jan
20-Jan
23-Jan
24-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
30-Jan
31-Jan
1-Feb
2-Feb
3-Feb
6-Feb
7-Feb
8-Feb
9-Feb
10-Feb

Nifty PCR
Nifty OI Nifty

Sectoral Activity
14
1. Last week, Capital Goods, Pharma, FMCG, and Metals stocks saw
12
open interest addition. Top names included CROMPGREAV,
10
SIEMENS, TORNTPHARMA, LUPIN, COLPAL, BATAINDIA,
8
HINDALCO, and SAIL
Open Interest %

6
2. Cement stocks saw open interest unwinding on the back of short
4
covering, especially in ACC, GRASIM, and AMBUJACEM.
2
3. From the Pharma space, TORNTPHARMA, CIPLA, and DRREDDY
0 have seen short build up.
Finance
Banking

Media
Realty
Metals

Others

Infrastructure
Capital_Goods

FMCG

Automobile
Power

Index
Pharma

Cement
Oil_Gas

Fertilisers

Technology
Textile

Telecom

-2 4. From the Banking space, stocks such as UNIONBANK and PNB


-4 saw short build up whereas DCBBANK, SOUTHBANK, and
-6 IDFCBANK saw short covering.
5. This week, stocks to watch out from the index heavyweights
Sectors would be HINDUNILVR, ASIANPAINT, and SBIN on the long side
while LUPIN, POWERGRID, and NTPC can be on the short side.

ACMIIL | Retail Research | Weekly Derivative Synopsis


Stocks to Watch Out (Weekly)
Long Build-up Short Build-up
Symbol Price OI Change% Price Change % Symbol Price OI Change% Price Change %
TITAN 432.90 20% 13% UNIONBANK 142.85 60% -11%
JUSTDIAL 429.45 10% 13% TORNTPHARM 1256.00 62% -4%
IGL 1025.50 42% 5% AMARAJABAT 876.30 45% -4%
CROMPGREAV 71.45 37% 5% SAIL 62.00 20% -6%
Long Unwinding Short covering
Symbol Price OI Change% Price Change % Symbol Price OI Change% Price Change %
IFCI 30.90 -6% -3% DCBBANK 136.70 -23% 5%
NHPC 30.20 -2% -2% INFRATEL 317.40 -21% 6%
ORIENTBANK 126.15 -2% -3% JPASSOCIAT 13.50 -16% 3%
SYNDIBANK 70.80 -1% -3% ACC 1489.00 -16% 5%

Weekly Recommendation
MCDOWELL-N (CMP-2360.8): The stock futures has seen open interest addition last week to the tune of 9% along with
positive price action, indicating long build up. Technically, the stock on the daily scale has seen a flag pattern breakout with
volumes, closing above its 200 DMA. The stock can be bought around 2290-2310 with a stop loss of 2240 on closing basis for
a target of 2450-2470 in the short term.
Target: 2470 Stop Loss: 2240

Nifty Options Snapshot


80
From the OI Concentration (Feb Series),
maximum addition of open interest on
70
the call options front exists at the strike
60 prices of 8800 and 9000 (with nearly
48.65 lacs and 68.90 lacs shares
50
outstanding). This indicates that these
OPEN INTEREST (In Lakh)

40
levels would act as the resistance zone
30 on the upside. On the Put options
front, maximum addition of open
20
interest is at the strike prices of 8700
10 and 8500 (with nearly 47.57 lacs and
0 61.48 lacs shares outstanding
8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 respectively), indicating a stronger
STRIKE PRICE support zone on the downside.
CE PE

ACMIIL | Retail Research | Weekly Derivative Synopsis


FII Stats (5 Days Trend)
(Rs. Cr.) 10-Feb 09- Feb 08-Feb 07- Feb 06- Feb

INDEX FUTURES 243 600 603 -39 170


INDEX OPTIONS 852 1373 -258 -111 1615
STOCK FUTURES 76 -165 -797 -586 -505
STOCK OPTIONS -274 150 -47 10 61

FII Open Interest Activity (Long & Short Ratio)


Date Index Fut: Long/Short Index Option: Long /Short Index put: long /Short Stock Fut Long/Short
03-Feb 2.84 1.12 2.45 0.82
06-Feb 2.58 1.19 2.45 0.81
07-Feb 2.52 1.19 2.33 0.80
08-Feb 2.65 1.13 2.31 0.78
09-Feb 2.78 1.11 2.52 0.78
10-Feb 2.85 1.12 2.51 0.78

NIFTY VS INDIA VIX (Last 31 Days Trend)


8,900 17
8,800
8,700 16
8,600
8,500
15
8,400
Nifty

8,300

VIX
14
8,200
8,100
8,000 13
7,900
7,800 12
2-Feb

4-Feb

6-Feb

8-Feb

10-Feb
30-Dec

1-Jan

3-Jan

5-Jan

7-Jan

9-Jan

11-Jan

13-Jan

15-Jan

17-Jan

19-Jan

21-Jan

23-Jan

25-Jan

27-Jan

29-Jan

31-Jan

Nifty VIX

Observation: Any Rise in India Vix this week would lead to either side movement in the index. As per the above chart, India Vix has strong
support at around 12.00 and the resistance stands at 15.50.

Weekly Advance Decline Ratio (Nifty Stocks)


Advances 31
Declines 20
Unchanged 0

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ACMIIL | Retail Research | Weekly Derivative Synopsis