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CE 334: Transportation Engineering II

Trip Generation

Gopal R. Patil
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay,
Mumbai

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Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)

The city or the region under consideration for


demand model is divided into smaller areas called
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)
Guidelines on Creating TAZs
Homogeneous socio-economic characteristics
Minimum intra-zonal trips
Physical, political, and historical boundaries observed
Use census tract boundaries whenever possible

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Trip Generation

Trip Generation is the first step in classic four-stage


Demand Models
Answers to a question, how many trips produced by and
attracted to a Traffic Analysis Zone?

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Basic Definitions

A Trip in transport modeling is a travel from an


origin to a destination
Home Based Trip: One of the trip ends is home
(place of residence)
Example: A trip from home to office
Non Home based trips: None of the trip end is
home
Example: A trip from office to Shopping Mall

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Trip Productions and Attractions

Trip Production: Home end of a home-based (HB)


trip or the origin of non-home-based (NHB) trip
Trip Attraction: Non-home end of a HB trip or the
destination of a NHB trip

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Trip Productions and Attractions

Home-based Trips
Production Attraction
Residential Non-residential
Production Attraction
Area Area

Non-home-based Trips
Production Attraction
Non-residential Non-residential
Attraction Production
Area Area

= Origin
= Destination
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Classification of Trips

Trip Purpose
Work
Compulsory Trips
School
Shopping
Social and recreation
Discretionary Trips
other

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Classification of Trips

Time of Day
Peak hour
Off-peak hour
Person Type
Income (different income levels; e.g., low, middle,
high)
Car ownership (0, 1, 2, 3 or more cars)
Household size and structure

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Typical Trip Chain

1.Home-based work trip

Home Work

2.NonHome-based
shopping trip

3. Home-based
shopping trip Market
123 :Tour or Trip Chain
(home-based)

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Factors Affecting Trip Generation

Trip Production
No of workers in a household
No of Students
Household size and composition
The household income
Some proxy of income such as number of cars, etc.
Accessibility
Trip Attraction
Land use
Commercial space
Number of employees
accessibility
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Trip Generation Models

Trip Rates
Growth factor models
Based on extrapolation from existing condition
Regression Models
Explanatory Variables are used to predict trip generation
rates, usually by Multiple Regression
Cross - Classification / Category Analysis
Average trip generation rates are associated with different
trip generators or land uses as a function of generator or
land use attributes
Models may be TAZ, Household, or Person - Based

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Trip Rates

Trips are obtained from trip rate tables or


charts prepared using historical data of
different places
For example, Trip Generation handbook
prepared by Institute of transportation
engineers (ITE) using data from the USA

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Trip Rates
Trips

Trips
Number of Persons Number of Vehicles

Easy and minimal data requirements (+)


Can result in different values of trip generation for
different known factors (-)

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Growth Factor Model

Based on extrapolation from existing condition


=
is the number of future trips in zone
is the number of current trips in zone
is a growth factor
Not easy to estimate
Usually
, ,
=
, ,

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Growth Factor Model

In a simple form


= .

: population
: Income
Easy method but very simplistic
Usually used to estimate trips in external zones

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Regression Method

Statistical methodology that utilizes the relation


between two or more quantitative variables so that
one variable can be predicated from others
The general form of a trip generation model is
= (1 , 2 , , )
A multiple linear regression model will of the
following form:
= 0 + 1 1 + 2 2 +, , + +, .
Where, 1 , 2 , , are predictor variable

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Zonal Based Regression

Trips produced or attracted in a zone is a function of


socioeconomic characteristics of households in that
zone
Two forms of variables:
Aggregate, that is, zonal total (eg. Zonal population, total
number of cars, etc)
Heteroscedasticity (larger zones have larger variance)
Zonal average (avg. HH income, avg. HH car ownership,
etc)

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Zonal Based Regression

Can only explain the variation in trip making behavior


between zones (zones need to be homogeneous and
small)
Model should not be developed by mixing aggregate
and average variables
Models with very high intercepts may be rejected

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House Hold Based Regression Model

Trips per household is a function of household


socioeconomic variables (HH size, HH income, HH
cars)
Zonal characteristics do not influence the trip
predictions
Intra zonal trips are not ignored
More accurate and better representation than the
zonal based model

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House Hold Based Regression Model

Eg. = 0.84 + 1.211 + 0.92


= trips per HH
1 = number of workers in the HH
2 = number or cars
Zone based models are useful for trip attraction whereas
House hold models are popular for trip productions

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Non-linear Relationship

Some factors that influence trip generation can have


non linear relationship
Couples with two
kids and one adult
6 Couples with
Couples without
one kid
5 kids
Trips per HH

4
3
1 car 1 worker
2
1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of persons in HH
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Non-linear Relationship

Two approaches to linearize the non-linear


relationship
Variable transformation (logarithm, power, etc)
Use of dummy variables: The independent variables
with non-linear relationship is divided into several
intervals

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Use of Dummy Variables

= 0 + 1 1 + 2 2
1 = number of workers in the HH
2 = number or cars
The variable 2 can be divided into car ownership of
0, 1, and 2 or more (needs two dummy variables)
The resulting model with two dummy variables
= 0 + 1 1 + 2 1 + b
2 z2
1 = 1 if HH with one car; 0 otherwise
2 = 1 if HH with two or more car; 0 otherwise

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Use of Dummy Variables

8 2 or more cars
7
1 cars
6
Trips per HH

0 cars
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of Workers in HH

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Aggregation (Zonal Total)

Zonal models: Trips at zonal level are readily


available
Household models
Linear Models: aggregation is straight forward
Consider = 0.91 + 1.441 + 1.072
Trips for zone, i => 1 = (0.91 + 1.441 + 1.072
= Number of households in zone
1 = Average number of workers per HH
2 = Average number of cars per HH

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Aggregation (Zonal Total)

Model with Dummy Variables


Model, = 0 + 1 1 + 2 1 + b 2 z2
Aggregation
= (0 +1 1 ) + 2 1 + 2 2
1 = number of HH with one car
2 = number of HH with two or more cars

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Category Analysis (Cross-classification)

Conceptualize population segment according to key


trip generation variables (car ownership, income and
household structure )
All households are assigned a household group
If four household sizes (1, 2, 3, and 4 or more) and
three car ownership groups (0, 1, and 2 or more), we
have 12 household groups (cells)
The trip rates are estimated for each group (cell)
Trip generation rates for household are assumed to
remain reasonably stable over time

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Pros and Cons

Pros
Grouping is independent of the zoning
No prior assumption about the relationship between
response and predictor variable (Linear, monotonic,
etc)
Cons
Extrapolation not possible
Large sample size required
Grouping of variables is arbitrary

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An Example

Sample Rates using Cross-


classification Number of Households
Car Ownership Car Ownership
HH Size 0 1 2 or more HH Size 0 1 2 or more
1 0.12 0.94 1 50 200
2 or 3 0.60 1.38 2.16 2 or 3 30 150 450
4 1.14 1.74 2.6 4 20 100 600
5 1.02 1.69 2.60 5 5 50 300

Total number of trips produced in the zone ,


T = 0.12 x 50 + 0.94 x 200 + .. + 2.60 x 300 = 992 trips per day

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Thank You!

Questions ???
Comments ???

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