You are on page 1of 8

Forecast for the Rest of February and the Next Two

Months
As we head into this weekend, Maine and New England and California will have
one heck of a story to tell. California has seen incredible amounts of precipitation. In
both frozen and liquid form. Especially the snowfall, in the mountain chains of Eastern
California.Seven plus feet of snow has fallen in the state of California, during their
extended period of coastal storm hits. 3 winter storm systems, in one week. First we
had winter storm Niko, back on February 8th. Even NYC and Northern New Jersey saw
some significant snowfall. Central/Southern New Jersey, The Delmarva’s and Philly
were spared the worst. Then we had winter storm Orson. This system brought
significant ice accrue for the extreme portions of the Northern Mid Atlantic and Heavy
snowfall for most in the New England region. We then had winter storm Pluto. That
system is currently exiting the region, as of this writing. Maine was most impacted,
with very high snowfall rates at times. It was an active week full of winter storms for
the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. Now it looks like we will see a significant
warm up through the end of February. Then we turn our attention to early March and
beyond.
*All my works cited for these images will be on a separate page at the end of
this article*
Weather Outlook for the Rest of February
Analog Years that I will use as a forecast guide the rest of this February:
1988,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,2002,2001,2003,2008 and 2009.
By looking at the current and forecasted NAO, I was able to determine what past
years would be good weather analogs for my forecast. These years are the most
similar to what has occurred this month and what may occur. Also keep in mind, that
these analog years are off of 1981-2010 base analog data. It is also looking like the
NAO will go positive as we head into the rest of February. Eventually though, the NAO
does gradually go back to it’s negative phase. It does look like the NAO will have a bit
of a roller coaster type of phasing. It will go from positive to negative back to positive
in a short span of time. Below is my thinking in terms of precipitation amounts and
temperatures, for the rest of February.We
The Blues indicate colder weather (on average)for the second half of the month and
the Yellows indicate warmer weather(on average) for the second half of the month.
This does not mean Northern areas of the nation will see no snow during the second
half of February. Areas that have no color, will see around average temperatures.

The greens indicate more precipitation(on average)for the second half of the month..
The brownish/yellowish colors indicate less precipitation(on average)for the second
half of the month. Areas that have no color, will see around average precipitation.

Weather Outlook for March
March usually comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. Also, March is known for some
pretty powerful winter storms. This is the month in which we have a higher sun
angle(less snowfall during winter storms) and we(most of us) are looking forward to
spring. March looks like we will have a positive AO.This means a more northerly storm
track. In this map below, you can see that
As you can see, the red area is below average heights and the yellow area is above
average heights. Storm Tracks will most likely be north, especially with this type of
setup. For the Lower 48, this means much of the colder air will be locked up in the
Northern Plains and Northern New England. So do not expect much snow in the Mid
Atlantic or the central/southern plains. However, there is always that potential for
some snow. You want a Negative AO and NAO if you are a Northeast Snow Lover.
With a Negative AO and NAO, You get southern storm tracks, that can ride up the east
coast and bring snow. Below are my weather outlook maps for March.

The Blues indicate colder weather (on average)for the month of March and the
Yellows indicate warmer weather(on average) for the month of March. Areas that
have no color, will see around average temperatures.
The greens indicate more precipitation(on average)for the month of March. The
brownish/yellowish colors indicate less precipitation(on average)for the month of
March. Areas that have no color, will see around average precipitation.
Weather Outlook for April
As the saying usually goes, April showers bring may Flowers. Well, too much rain is not
a good thing. Anyways, it looks like during this month we will still have an AO in a
positive phase that is going negative. This means that we will start to see more
precipitation in southern areas of the United States. Dry Air looks to take hold across
the U.S. West though. Below is a general diagram(credit to weatherbell will be at the
end of article)of what the upper part of the atmosphere may be doing in April.

As you can see, the red area is below average heights and the yellow area is above
average heights. We will be in the process(according to this weather model) of
switching to a negative AO. This means that storm tracks will start to gradually shift
south. Below are my weather outlook maps for April.

The Blues indicate colder weather (on average)for the month of April and the Yellows
indicate warmer weather(on average) for the month of April. Areas that have no color,
will see around average temperatures.
The greens indicate more precipitation(on average)for the month of April. The
brownish/yellowish colors indicate less precipitation(on average)for the month of
April. Areas that have no color, will see around average precipitation.

All in all, there will some interesting times ahead (weather wise) for the Lower 48. I
will track every MAJOR winter storm and low pressure storm complex, that may
impact the nation. If you have any questions, comments or concerns you can check me
out on Twitter @CristCacewx and on Facebook(just search Crist Cace weather). As I
always like to say… Stay safe and weather aware!
-Written By Crist Cace

Works Cited
Bastardi, Joe, and Ryan Maue. "WeatherBELL Models | Premium Weather Maps."
WeatherBELL Models | Premium Weather Maps. Weather Bell, n.d. Web. 16 Feb.
2017.
"Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation." ​Climate
Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate
Prediction Center, n.d. Web. 16 Feb. 2017.
"CPC - Monitoring & Data: Daily North Atlantic Oscillation Index." ​CPC - Monitoring &
Data: Daily North Atlantic Oscillation Index. N.p., n.d. Web. 16 Feb. 2017.
Sco, Nc. "Global Patterns - Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations (AO & NAO) | State
Climate Office of North Carolina." G​ lobal Patterns - Arctic & North Atlantic
Oscillations (AO & NAO) | State Climate Office of North Carolina. N.p., n.d. Web.
16 Feb. 2017.
Team, ESRL Web. "Physical Sciences Division." ​ESRL News. N.p., n.d. Web. 16 Feb.
2017.