OIL SPLL RISK ASSESSMENT

TASK FORCE REPORT

BY

STATE OF FLORIDA
AND

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERAI.S MANAGEMENT SERVICE

OCTOBER

1989

INTRODUCTTON

On

June L6, 1988, the Secretary of the Interior and State of Florida covernor Bob Martinez agreed to the formation of two task forces to analyze issues concerning exploratory drilling for oil
anrl craq crn the Y*" OUtef Continenf al Shel f qnrrl-h nf /OCs) rvsu^r / 260 nofth

latitude off southwest Florida. The DrilIing Impact Assessment Task Force (DIATF) was asked to analyze all potential impacts of exploratory drilling operations on south Ftorida coastal and marine resources. The Oi1 Spill Risk Assessment Task Force (TF), from which this report has been prepared, was asked to analyze the potential for oiI spills occurring from explcratory dril1:-ng .l-io<.
meteorological information, the methods available to model the fate and transport of an oil spill should one occur, and the This report is based :nethods to reduce risks from an oil spi}l. on these analyses.
Tha rrn: I q
an1- irr.i trurEo, qvs!v iha uraw.i qi-'i 66 6lrrain=I r--YSlUOl F^-fr^rrhi(1 UUgOIIUYIqPTI!U and allu

outli-ned in a Terms of Cooperative Agreement (see Appendix A). The general charge to the TF was to review and try to reach a consensus on the level of information necessary and the approach used to assess the risks of oil spills for exploratory dril-ling south of 260 north latitude in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

q..t.rrrr.f rrro

and rtrsnons i h'i .l i t j es Of the TF wef e

This task force and report deal strictly with exploratory drilling activities. There was no attempt to specifica-1Iy address developmenf. and production activities in this area of the OCS. Therefore, many of the assumptions made while developing this report, ds well- as assumptions made in conjunction with the DIATF, will not apply to OCS oil and gas development and production, should they occur. The TF acknor*ledges that risks (number and volume of potential spills) associated tqith development and production are greater than those associated with exploration.
GoaIs

The goals of the task force, outlined in the Cooperative Agreement, were to provide the Secretary of the Tnterior and the Governor of Florida with an estimate of oil-spi1l risks to the environmental resources of the South Florida area; to provide an additional forum for addressing the irrformatj"on needs and technical issues concerning potentiat oil-spilt risks from exploratory drilling off southwest Fiorida; to try to reach a consensus on a method for oil spill risk assessnent and measures available t.o mitl.gate risk; and to advise the Secretary of the fnterior and the Governor of Florida on issues related to oi1-

r:

spill risks.

RESULTS OF

Section 3 OIL SPILL RISK ASSESS}IENT

ilODELING

results of the 27 year simulation and the 'rwith eddy currents" sj-mulation have been reported in the tables in Appendices c and D, respectively. These are sulnmary tables which report the freguency and time of contact from hypothetical spiIls to environmental resources and coastal boundaries. The tables have been prepared to present results as a function of season/ and time, i.e., 3,10, and 30 days within the life of each
The

traJ eccory.

tables can be used to show the freguency of contact, in percent (the number of contacts to a resource divided by the number of launches). In addition the tables can be used to show the shortest time it took a hypothetical- spill to contact a particular resource. These data are also reported for each Iaunch point, each season, and annually. The simulations can be used to answer questions about the risk to the study area from oCS exploratory operations. Given the i.nformation about the conponents of each simulation and the formatofthetab1es,thesesimu1ationsshouldanSwermany guestions posed by the reviewer. In the i-nterest of summarizLng the resul-ts, this section will pose questions and ans!/er therir based on the results of the simulations. This is not meant to imply that these are the only or most important questions or that the answers are exhaustive. The goal is to illustrate the use of the simulation and nresent some of the information contained within.
These
USING THE TABLES

Tables in Appendix C summarize the frequency and time of contact of hypothetj-cal spi11s to environmental resources or land segments for the 27 year simul-ations. Frequencies are in percent (i.e., the number of times that a resource was contacted divided by the total number of launches) and are given for 3-,, l0-, and 3O-day periods. These tables present modeling results from the fu1I 27-year wind record over all seasons (annual) or from the 27 years of the specific seasonal winds as indicated (vrinter, spring, sunmer or fa1l). Results are also summarized in both annual" and seasonal tabLes for each of the four individual l-aunch points.

In addition to the frequency of contact to resources, the tables also show the shortest time that it took a hypothetical spill to contact a particular resource. Time to first contact (shown in days and hours) is presented for annual and seasonal results and for each individual launch point.

Launch Points

Hypothetical oiI spi1ls \{ere reLeased from four launch points, discussed in Section 2,
nnrri

dS

Howel-l Hook Map Area Block 573, Iocated approximately 170 miles WNW of Key West. (25 . 4o N lati€uae, 84 . 4o 'w 'l .|.rrrio\
Prrl 'l ev Ri dcre Man Aroa Rl nr.k 715 , located approximately 115 miles WNW of Key West. (25 .2o N latitide, 83.45o li

longi-tude)
3.

PuIley Ridge Map Area Block 643, located approxinately 75 miles NW of Key West. (25.30 N latitude, 82.70 w
I nnrri f rrdo\ NNW of Key 'l nnn i l-rrrl o \

Pulley Ridge Map Area Block 954, located about 35 niles west . (25. o3o N latitude , 82.030 w

Seasons

variability in occurrence and abundance of floral and faunal species, ds rsel1 as climatic conditions, two primary seasons - winter (November through February) and summei, (May throug'h August) were identified. tttransitiontt months and should not trulyfhe remaining months are be considered spring or fa1r. However, for purposes of presentation of rnodel results, this report defines spring as March and April, and fall as
Based on seasonal September and October.

Land and Envi.ronmental Resources

rn conjunction with the DTATF, the.resources of environmental concern in the study were identified. Resources were categorized and mapped as either rtlandrr or coastal boundaries (the Florida nainland) or Itenvironmental resources.rt Environmental resources are those not found on the mainland and include areas such as the Dry Tortugas, the Florida Keys, seag:rass beds, coral .reefs, etc. Appendix B contains figures illustrating the environriental resources and land segments and their specific locations.
The coast of Florida's mainland was divided into 35 land segTments, each approxim4tely 5 rniles in length. Dividing the land segments into short segrnents allows the analyst to determine what area along the coast and land-based environmentaf l:esources were contacted.

TAUNCI{ POINT SPSCIFTC

On

a ena-i

an annual basis the following land segments show cont.act frorn
ri n l:rtnnh nni ni

LAUNCH POINT 573

Within 3 Days: Within 10 Days:

-No land segment contacts. -Land segrments 27 (Monroe County) and 29 (Dade County) have a 32 probabitity of
nanf r a{-

-Land Segnnents 28 and 30 (Dade County) have 2eo probability of contact. -Land segrments 23-25 (Monroe County) have a <lt probability of contact. -A11 other land segments (22 segments) show contact.

a

0

Within 30 Days:

-Land segrent 27 (Monroe County) has a .i
nrolrah.i Plvpq!r!4u).
1

+,,

-Land seqm€nts 28 and 29 (Dade County) have 3Z probability of contact. -Land seqrnent 30 (Dade County) has a 32 probability of contact. -Land segrment 26 (Monroe County) has a LZ -Land segirnents 13 (Lee County) through 25 (Monroe County) have a <1? probability of
nnn'f- a nlnnnl: ni nrn.|.ralri'l I/!vlqvr+ruJ ii-rz nf v! nnntrnr vvlluqvu.

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42
a

.

-A11 other land segments (L2 segnents) show 0

to first contact from launch point 573 was 90 hours (3.7 days) to land segment 30 (Dade County). Others with contact ranged from 90 hours to 560 hours (27.5 days) to land segment (Lee County).
Tinre
:

15

TAUNCH POINT 643

within 3 Days: Within l-0 Days:
Within 30 Days:

-No nraiirland contacts where shown.

-Lahd segrrnent 28 (Dade County) has a
nrnlrehi IJr vlqvlr
14 i

-AI1 other 29 land seqments showed 0 contact. -Land seg-nents 27 (Monroe County) and 29 (Dade County) have a 2Z probability of
contact.
57

#rr v! a€ vvlt u( 9J ^^n+'a6t.

<1e;

-Land segrments 28 and 30 (Dade County) a 1t probability of contact.

showed

-Land Segments 2, 3, 7-L4, 16, 20, 22, 24-26 showed a <14 probability of contact. -The renaining 9 land segments showed 0
-nn? 2 ^l

Time to first
County)
.

contact from launch point 643 was 237 hours (9.9 days) to land segnnent 28 (Dade County). Others with contact ranged up to 720 hours (30 days) for Land SegTment 3 (Hillsborough
I.AUNCE POINT 7 L5

within 3 Days: within 10 Days:

-No mainland contacts were recorded. -Land seg:nent 29 (Dade County) showed a lt probability of contact. -Land seg-ments 26 and 27 (Monroe County) and 28 and 30 (Dade County) showed a <12 'l
nralr=1.

-The remainingi 25 land segrments showed 0 contact.

IJ!VVqV!!!UJ

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i f rr v! ^€

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--

within 30 Days:

-Land segnnents 27 (Monroe County) and 29 (Dade County) showed a 4Z probability of -Land segrment 28 (Dade County) shovred a 3eo probability of contact -Land segrment 30 (Dade County) showed a 22 probability of contact. -Land segment 26 (Monroe County) showed a 1? probability of contact. -Land segments 15 (Lee County) through 25 (Monroe County) showed a <L? probability of contact. -The remaining 14 land segments shovred 0 contact
-nni
2

-r

Time to first con'Eact vras L53 hours (6.4 Days) for land segment 29 and 156 hours (6.5 days) fol' Ian segment 30, bo*uh Dade County. Others with contact ranged up to 7O2 hours (29.2 Days) for land segi-ment L5 (Leg County) .
LAUNCH POINT 964

Withj-n 3 Days:

-No contacts to land segments.

5B

within 10 Days:

-Land segments 1B-21 (Cotlier County) showed a <1t probability of contact. -The remaining 26 lanC segments showed O contact.

within 30 Days:

-Land segments 27 (Monroe County) and 28-30 (Dade County) showed a 1? probability of contact. -Land segTments 2 , 6-2L, 25, and 26 showed a <13 probability of contact. -?he renaining 7 land segments showed 0 contact.

contact from launch point 964 was !I7 hours (4.9 days) to tand segment 19 (Collier Count.y) . Land segirnent 18 (Collier County) showed first contact in 1-32 hours (5.5 days). Others with contact ranged up to 690 hours {28.7 days) for land
Time to first
segment

2 (Hil-l-sborough County) .

59

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Percenl Contccl of 0il Spills Wiihin 30 Dcys to Lcnd S.gnnenls cncl Select ,Invironmentcl Rescurces frorn All Lcunch Sites fcr All Secsons (39,296 Trcjectcries).

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Bcse Mcp Showing ?elctionship cf Cocstline io LcnC Segrnents cnd, Select fnvtronmentcl Resources

PERCENT CONTACT OF OIL SPILLS TO ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

(ALL

LAUNCHES/ALL SEASONS/39,296 TMJECT0RTES)

Time
ENV

I RONMENTAL

RESOURCES

Contact % Hi ts % Hi ts Davs Hours 3 Davs 10 Davs
23.0 552
AF

First

% H'its

30

Davs
<1

1. 28N. Lat.-N. Boundary 2. 80l,l. Long.-E. Boundary 3. Upper - L.C. 4. Middle - L.C. 5. Lower - L.C.

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10. Submerged Sea Grasses

6. Dry Tortugas 7. Lower Keys 8. Upper Keys 9. Florida Reef Tract

11. Lobster Habitat 12. Tort. Shrimp Sanctuary 13. Tampa Bay - Stl 14. Sarasota - Sl,l 15. Char'lotte Harbor - S1.l
16. Cape Ramano/Naples 17. Cape Sable - SW 18. Dry Tortugas - Sl,l
Lower Keys 20. Lower Keys

21.6 519 13.5 3?4

5.9 0.6 L.? 2.5 1.4 3.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.5

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05 141 15 30 60 33 75 27

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PERCENT CONTACT OF

OIL SPILLS

TO

ALL
LAND STGI'1ENTS

LAND SEGHENTS LAUNCHES/ALL SEAS0NS/39,296 TMJECT0RIES

Ti me F'i rst

Davs

Contact %Hits %Hits Hours 3 Davs 10 Davs
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2. Land Segment 2 3. Land Segment 3 4. Land Segment 4 5. Land Segment 5 6. Sarasota & Charlotte 7. Land Segment 7 8. Land Segment 8 9. Land Segment 9

1. Hillsborough

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28.6 30.0 0.0

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465 300
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330
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16. Collier 17. Land Segment t7

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26. Land Segment 27. Land Segment 28. Dade 29. Land Segment 30. Land Segment 31. 32. 33. 34. 35.

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