LPS Mortgage Monitor

June 2010 Mortgage Performance Observations

Data as of May, 2010 Month-end

June 2010 Mortgage Performance Package Data as of May 31, 2010 Data released June 15, 2010 Outline / Agenda

• •

Delinquency and Foreclosure: Inventory figures for May 2010 including longer-term trend analysis.
Geographic Analysis: Inventories and trends at the state level. Newly delinquent loans and delinquency migrations (roll rates) – focus on first time delinquent borrowers with historical trends and static pool performance.

Cure rates and performance post-cure.


Modification and other loss mitigation activity – volumes and recidivism rates
Foreclosure trends: Covering foreclosure starts and foreclosure sales, volumes and percentages.

Origination analysis – Attributes / performance with FHA and Jumbo focus

Lender Processing Services

2

Total Delinquencies increased from April to May Total Delinquencies (excluding Foreclosures) = 9.20% Month over Month Increase of 2.3%, Year over Year Increase of 7.9%

Lender Processing Services

3

Foreclosure inventories remained stable in May May Foreclosure Rate = 3.18% Year over Year Increase of 13.5%

Lender Processing Services

4

Delinquent and Foreclosure inventories continue to stabilize but have yet to show annual declines

Lender Processing Services

5

Stabilization in delinquencies and foreclosures is at extremely high historical rates

Lender Processing Services

6

90 Day Default % increased slightly from March/April level level of 0.49% to 0.50%

Lender Processing Services

7

LPS Servicing Database 1st liens – Non-Performing Loan Counts Extrapolated Assuming Market Share = 70% Servicing and 40% REO Early stage delinquencies are back on the rise

Lender Processing Services

8

Delinquency and Foreclosure Rate Table Ranked based on Non-Current %

Lender Processing Services

9

Total Non-Current (including Delinquencies and Foreclosures) by State National Average = 12.38%

Lender Processing Services

10

Change in Total Non-Current by State in the last 6 months: Decline of 6.49% nationally Alaska is the only state that experienced an increase (2.5%) – 27 states are performing worse than national.

Lender Processing Services

11

Volume of loans rolling into early stage delinquency has increased with “New 30s” reverting back to 2009 levels New REOs declined from all time highs

Loan counts are not extrapolated
Lender Processing Services

12

Approximately 583k loans were current at the beginning of January and are at least 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure as of May month end (Prior years are: 873k in 2009, 543k in 2008, 235k in 2007 and 136k in 2006)

Extrapolated to the US market using 70% coverage ratio.
Lender Processing Services

13

New problem loans are still elevated in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California

Lender Processing Services

14

First-time 60 day delinquencies have declined significantly from 2009 levels

Lender Processing Services

15

Far more loans are still in late stage delinquency or foreclosure 12 months after a firsttime 60 day default

Lender Processing Services

16

Overall volume of loans curing to current declined to a 6 month low

Loan counts are not extrapolated
Lender Processing Services

17

Cure rates from all stages of delinquency declined, with the exception of 6+ month delinquent cures which are dominated by HAMP conversions

Loan counts are not extrapolated
Lender Processing Services

18

A higher percentage of loans that cured in February and March remained current vs. prior month cures

Lender Processing Services

19

Deterioration rates continue to increase after the sharp decline in March while improvement rates dropped back to the range experienced over the last 5 years 4.1% of loans deteriorated in status vs. 1.7% that improved

Lender Processing Services

20

After a 2 month drop in February and March, deterioration ratios rapidly reverted back to 2008 to 2009 levels Approximately 2.5 Loans deteriorated for every 1 Improved

Lender Processing Services

21

OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report shows modification activity back on the rise as HAMP Trial Period Plans are converted to permanent modifications

Data from Q1 2010 OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2010-69a.pdf
Lender Processing Services

22

90+ Delinquency Rate by Modification Quarter: The performance of modifications is steadily improving

Data from Q1 2010 OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2010-69a.pdf
Lender Processing Services

23

Short-sale activity is on the rise but Deeds in Lieu remain limited

Data from Q1 2010 OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2010-69a.pdf
Lender Processing Services

24

Foreclosure starts increased slightly in May. Total foreclosure starts for 2010 are at 767k (vs. 851k for the same period in 2009 and 596k in 2008)

Loan counts are not extrapolated

*As servicers continue to identify ways to assist borrowers there may be instances where the process impacts the month to month figures.
Lender Processing Services

25

Foreclosure Starts – Nevada and Florida are still the hot spots

Lender Processing Services

26

Foreclosure sale rate (as a percent of total loans) = 0.21%

Lender Processing Services

27

Production by Origination Month – January 2007 to December 2009 by Product FHA is 28.4% of origination for 2009 vs. 24.0% for 2008 and 5.7% in 2007

Loan counts are not extrapolated
Lender Processing Services

28

The percentage of originations relative to active loans has declined drastically in Florida and Michigan

Lender Processing Services

29

May 2010 Month-end data: Conclusions

• Delinquencies and Foreclosures remain stable, but elevated vs. historical levels. • Early stage delinquencies are on the rise again as the seasonal improvement period has expired. • First time 60 day delinquencies have declined from the extreme levels of 2009 with higher percentages remaining in serious delinquent status after 12 months. • Cure rates (most notably, early stage cures) have dropped back down to the levels experienced over the prior 2 years, though higher percentages are remaining current in the immediate term post-cure. • OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report shows that modification activity remains high with performance improving by vintage of modification. • Foreclosure starts increased slightly in May with the total for the year still significantly higher than experienced in 2008. • Foreclosure sales declined from historic highs, but as with all other delinquency statistics, still remain elevated. • Originations increased slightly in May but still remain very low – viewed as a percentage of total active loans, regional differences are becoming apparent.

Lender Processing Services

30

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful