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# ?

## A Refresher on Probability and

Statistics

IENG 455
Feng Yang
West Virginia University

## Relationship between Probability

and Statistics
Probability

Population Sample

Statistics
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Basic Concepts
Population a collection of all units of interest. (people,
products, )
Sample a subset of a population that is actually observed.
Variable a measurable property or attribute associated
with each unit in the population.
Parameters numeric characteristics of the population
defined for each variable of interest.
An Example:
Consider a lot of 100 items in manufacturing
Population: 100 items Sample: a subset of 10 items
Variable X: defectiveness of products
1 If the item is defective
X
0 Otherwise
Parameters: Defective rate of the lot
(number of defectives/number of lots)
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## Probability & Statistics

Nature of Probability
Deduction: given the population and its parameters we draw
inferences about a sample. General A Particular
e.g. Given that the population contains 5 defectives, we
compute the probability that a random sample of 10 items
drawn from this lot contains one defective.
Nature of Statistics
Induction: given a sample we draw inferences about the
population A Particular General

## e.g. Take a random sample of 10 items, estimate the unknown

number of defectives in the lot from the observed number
of defectives in the sample.
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Probability Basics
Random experiment a specific procedure
whose outcome is uncertain.
Random variable X a numeric quantity whose
value is determined by the outcome of a random
experiment.
Sample space S the collection of all possible
outcomes of a random experiment.
Event E any collection of outcomes contained in
the sample space.
Probability of an event the relative likelihood
that it will occur when you do the experiment
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## Example: Product Quality

Random experiment: randomly draw 10 items
from the population and test them.
Random variable Xi ( i = 1, 2, , 10 )
1 If the item is defective
Xi
0 Otherwise
Sample space S = { 0, 1 }
Event E: e.g., the sample of 10 items contains 1
defective.
Probability of an event: the probability that a
random sample of 10 items contains 1 defective.
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P{ X i 1}
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Random Variables
Quantifies the random outcome
Assigns a numerical value for every outcome of the experiment
Probabilistic behavior described by distribution function
A RV can only take values in its sample space ( X S ).
Examples of sample spaces:
1. Toss a coin: S = { H, T }
2. Roll a single die: S = { 1, 2, , 6 }
3. Count the number of customers entering a store during one
day: S = { 1, 2, 3, }
4. Observe the lifetime of a car battery: S = [0,)
(hours)
6. Measure the outdoor temperature: S = [23, 104]
(Fahrenheit )
Discrete vs. Continuous RV.
Discrete can take on only certain separated values
Continuous can take on any real value in some range 7

Discrete Distributions
Let X be a discrete RV with S = { x1, x2, x3, }
Probability mass function (pmf)
p(xi) = P(X = xi) for i = 1, 2, 3, ...
Toss a die: S ={1,2,,6 }
pmf
P( X 1) 1 / 6
P( X 2) 1 / 6 1/6

P ( X 6) 1 / 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 x

## The statement X = xi is an event whose probability of

happening is measured by the pmf
Can express pmf as numerical list, table, graph, or formula
Since X must be equal to some xi, and since the xis are all
distinct, p ( xi ) 1
all i 8

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Discrete Distributions (contd)
Cumulative distribution function (cdf)
F ( x ) P{ X x}
all i such
p ( xi )
that x i x

3/6
Toss a die:
Properties of discrete c.d.f.
0 F(x) 1 for all x
As x , F(x) 0; As x +, F(x) 1
F(x) is nondecreasing in x
F(x) is a step function continuous from the right with jumps
at the xis of height equal to the pmf at that xi
Some discrete distributions
Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson Distribution
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Continuous Distributions
Now let X be a continuous RV with sample space
S = [ xL, xU ] (Possibly limited to a range bounded on left or right or both.)
Observed Xs are denser in regions where f (x)
is high
The height of a density, f(x), is not the
0 x probability of anything it can even be > 1

## Probability density function (pdf) is a function f(x) with the

following three properties:
f(x) 0 for all real values x
The total area under f(x) is 1: f ( x) dx 1
For any fixed a and b with a b, the probability that X will
fall between a and b is the area under f(x) between a and b :
P( a x b) f ( x) dx
b

a
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Continuous Distributions (contd.)
Cumulative distribution function (cdf) - probability that the
RV will be a fixed value x:
F (x) P( X x)
x
f ( t ) dt

f(t) F(x)
1

F(x)

x t x
Properties of continuous cdf is
0 F(x) 1 for all x
As x , F(x) 0; As x +, F(x) 1
F(x) is nondecreasing in x
F(x) is a continuous function with slope equal to the
pdf: f (x) = F(x)
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## Some Continuous Distributions

Uniform 1
a xb
f ( x) b a
pdf 0 elsewhere

1
Exponential exp( x / ) x0
f ( x)
pdf 0 elsewhere

1 ( x )2
Normal f ( x) exp[ ] - x
2 2 2 2
pdf

## Others: Lognormal, Gamma, Triangle, Weibull

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Parameters of a Distribution
Expected value / Mean (measure of center)
Discrete RV: E( X ) xi p ( xi )
all i

Continuous RV: E( X ) x f ( x) dx

## Discrete RV: 2 Var( X ) E( X ) 2 ( xi ) 2 p( xi )

all i

Continuous RV: Var ( X ) E( X ) ( x ) f ( x) dx
2 2 2

## Standard deviation (SD)

SD( X ) Var ( X )
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## Parameters of a Distribution (contd)

Percentiles of a continuous RV

x
F ( x) P( X x) f ( t ) dt

F ( ) P( X )
f(t) F(x)
1

t = F -1() x

## For 0 1, the 100th percentile is defined as

F -1 ( )
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What is Statistics?
Statistics Sample
Population X
X 1 , X2 , X 3 ,

## Performance of interest: random output X

X ~ a certain unknown distribution
Collecting data: draw samples
Summarizing and exploring data.
Drawing conclusions and making decisions based on data.
(Estimate parameters of population or infer something
about them based on the sample.)
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Sampling
Random sample is a set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d)
observations of size n from the population:
X1, X2, , Xn
Sample statistic a numeric function of the sample data
h(X1, X2, , Xn)
Used to estimate population parameters
Sample statistics are random variables themselves.

## Sample Statistic Population Parameters

1 n
Sample mean X Xi
n i 1
Mean = E(X)

1 n
Sample var. S2 ( X i X )2
n 1 i 1
Variance 2 = Var(X)

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Distribution of a Statistic
A sample statistic is a RV and thus have its own distribution, called the
sampling distribution.
Some sampling distribution results
Draw i.i.d obs. (X1, X2, , Xn) from an population (distribution) with
unknown parameters and 2.
pdf of t-dist.
Sample mean and variance:
(a) E ( X ) Var ( X ) 2 / n
(b) E ( S 2 ) 2
(c) X
~ Students t-distribution
S/ n

X
P t n 1,1 / 2 t n 1,1 / 2 1
0
S/ n t n 1,1 / 2 t n 1,1 / 2
S S
P X t n 1,1 / 2 X t n 1,1 / 2 1
n n 18

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Point Estimation and CIs
S S
P X t n 1,1 / 2 X t n 1,1 / 2 1
n n
CI for the population mean

S S
[LCL, UCL] X t n 1,1 / 2 , X t n 1,1 / 2
n n
where tn-1,1- is the 100(1-th percentile of the students t distribution with
n-1degree of freedom (Excel function TINV can be used to compute tn-1,1-

## 100 (1 )% confidence interval (CI) for the parameter

An interval that contains (covers) the unknown population parameter with
specified probability 1
A sample statistic h(X1, X2, , Xn) that estimates (in some sense) a
population parameter, such as mean, variance,
Point estimates of parameters carry little information.
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Prediction Intervals
CI: estimated interval for the mean of population.
A C.I. is a measure of the error; its length will shrink to 0 as we get more
data
X
~ Students t-distribution
S/ n
S S
[ LCL, UCL ] X t n 1,1 / 2 , X t n 1,1 / 2
n n
Many practical applications call for an interval estimate of an individual
(future) observation sampled from a population rather than of the mean of
the population.
e.g., a company buying a new machine would like to estimate the
performance of that machine --- not the average performance of all the
machines produced by the manufacturer.

## Assume that the population

distribution for RV X is
approximately normal
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Prediction Intervals (contd)
Suppose that a random sample X1, X2, , Xn from an
approximately normal distribution N(, 2), where and
2 are both unknown parameters.
Estimate the interval such that with probability 1- a
random outcome X will fall within it
Prediction Interval (PI)

1 1
X t n 1,1 / 2 S 1 , X t n 1,1 / 2 S 1
n n

## PI tries to capture what will actually happen in the future

The width of PI will stabilize as we get more data
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CI & PI X
~ Students t-distribution
S/ n

## Dist. Of X pdf of t-dist.

0
tn 1,1 / 2 tn 1,1 / 2
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Example
Lets assume that the time it takes for a pumpkin candle to burn
itself out (burning time) is normally distributed. I bought 10
candles, burned them, and found that the sample mean of the
burning time is 5 hours, and the sample standard deviation is 1.2
hours.
RV X: candles burning time.
n = 10
X 5 hours
s = 1.2 hours
Q1: Provide a 95% confidence interval for the mean of the
burning time of candles.
S S
[ LCL, UCL ] X t n 1,1 / 2 , X t n 1,1 / 2
n n
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Example (contd)
Q2: Now I bought another candle, please write down the
interval estimate such that with probability 0.95 the burning time
of this particular candle will fall into that interval.

1 1
X t n 1,1 / 2 S 1 , X t n 1,1 / 2 S 1
n n

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Summary Statistics
1. Take a random sample: independent and identically
distributed (i.i.d) observations of size n
X1, X2, , Xn
Stochastic System
Random output of X ~ a 2. Calculate sample statistics (functions of RVs X1, X2, ,
certain distribution with Xn), such as sample mean X and sample variance S2
UNKNOWN parameters ---- A sample statistic itself is a random variable.

X
~ Students t-distribution
S/ n

## 3. Based on sample statistics, make inferences of the

Examples of RV X: UNKNOWN distribution of X.
Selling price of a stock
next year CI P X tn1,1 / 2 S X tn1,1 / 2 S 1
Commute time from
n n
home to school

PI P X tn1,1 / 2 S 1 1 , Xn1 X tn1,1 / 2 S 1 1 1
n n

(Assuming that X ~ Norm)
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