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Factor in our legendary stellar customer care, and it's clear why Innovyze is the premier choice for top utilis, government agencies, and engineering organizations worldwide, Innevyze’ {alk 826 608 6868, enalaneeBinoyrecems or vist us at wwwinnowyze.com Innayae, ne allother marks ae te propery of Tri TE @esri =~__Inside Insighi MIGHAEL J, MeGUIRE Infrastructure and Financial Planning Versus Dystopia e's talk about water rates and drought problems. If nothing else, droughts bring inca sharp focus how resilient a water utility's rae structure is. Ifyou can'r collect enough money to operate during atime of shortage, you have to step back and think of other rate constructs. Then there isthe adequacy ‘of our collective infraserucres to mect the needs of ou customers during good times and drought times. We moet these challenges or we are out of business California is ground zero forthe continuing debate on new water rate structures, «specially increasing block rates (also called tiered pricing). Charging more for higher rates of water use seems like a logical thing to do these days. Thirty years ago, it was considered revolutionary. In those days, the more you used, the less you paid per unit ‘of water. asked Kelly Salt (page 32} t0 write an article about a court case in California that is making ita lot rougher for water silities co use tered water eats, Kelly isa great writer who explains the intricacies ofthe legal landscape in language that I as an engineer, can understand. Gass etal (page 42) verite about the basics of constructing a rate system that will provide sufficient revenscs for water uiliies even during a severe drought. Not only «do they explain the theory, they also provide examples that bring the important issues to light. Tiger et al. (page 51) tackle the rough subject of nonresidential water users and how se can understand ther effect on the overall financial health ofa uly “Mose important, are shey paying their fair share ofthe needed utility revenue? Leighton et al. (page 61) tell us hove the AWWA Asset Management Committee views key practices ofthis critical topic. ‘Our colleagues in Germany are facing similar problems to those of US water utilities decreasing water use and the need for financial stability. Oelmann et al (page 20) explain that financial stability is all about halancing high fied costs with an essentially variable pricing structure, (Chastain: Howley ta. (page 24) describe the smart analytics needed to prevent water loss and maximize revenue This is whete the maintenance of infrastructure along with a robust asset management system pays aff, One utility identified annual revenue losses of $2.6 million caused by leaks and other water losses. With the implementation ‘of « management system, ahour half ofthat amount could be recovered. Then tere is the apocalypse. Maxwell (page 16) writes about a dystopian future for Southern California and North Ameria that should scare the living heck ut of everyone who reads it, The problem is that the scenatios included inthis month's Market Outlook are not far from the realm of possibility. Whatever we do as water professional, we need £0 rake sure that che world he describes doss not come to pas. Incidentally this article is an abridged version ofthe prologue of Maxwell’ excellent book, The Future of Water—A Starling Look Ahead, which I recommend to everyone. All of the peer-reviewed artiles are interesting this month, but want to bring one in particular to your arention. Good etal. (page 74) present the state of knowledge of engineered nanomaterials production and release, environmental fate and trans port, detection in aquatic environments, and removal in drinking water treatment 1s put through our Water Express process—a fast track through peer review. Submission ro acceptance took only 32 days. Kudos to our technical editors and reviewers and tothe students who came up with the idea to do this work This sa longer eeview article and npc 10SS42} 26 18.0056 AN american Woter Works Assocation imbiny Raaalh Joum-Amsricin ister Woks Asaciaton (SSN 0002 ‘Wan iepelaned monty by he Aeeren err WoeWE BUILD LEGACIESWN Pe Rm UL cd Association Pee Crs nn features Seay UU Finance 32 Structuring Tiered Water Rates Under Conflicting Court Decisions: Interpreting the California Constitution A California coure recently ruled thac a city’s tered race structure violated the proportionality requirements of the state ccnstitution. This article guides water agencies on using tered rates asa Conservation and water resource ‘management rool while complying wich varied interpretations of the California Constitution Kelly J Salt 42 Developing Drought Rates: Why Agencies Should Prepare for a Not-So-Rainy Day Reserves alone eannot solve long-term revenue shortages associated with drought conditions. Implementing drought rates requires identifying how water should be allocated, analyzing costs, deteemining how revenue should he recovered, and identifying how customers will be affected Siajay Gaur, Akbar Alikhan, and Joe Crea 51 ABetter Understanding of Nonresidential Water Customers Through Analysis This article proposes methods of analysis thar ean be used to understand and project nonresidential customer water use, ‘including key account progeams, water use plateaus, and meter rightsizing, Four ‘urban water urlities in North Carolina ‘were analyzed as par ofthis work ‘Mary Tiger, Christine Boyle, Sadi Eskaf, Jeffrey Hughes, and Renee jutras Open Access Peer-Reviewed Articles ‘An expended summary ofeach peasrevened artes plished inthe prt eton of cual AWWA. The fltext of ach atcle ie published onl anne 61 Committee Report: Business Practices to Help Utilities. Manage Assets By implementing the asset manage ment business practices described in this article, utilities can addeess the ‘concerns cited in the 2015 State ofthe Water Industry Report, address asset renewals and replacements, better maa- age resourees, and improve the public’s lnderstanding of the value oftheir AWWA Asset Man semen Committe 68 Fairmount Water Works: Celebrating 200 Years of Beauty and Ingenuity This “Spotlight On...” article describes the evolution of the Fairmount Wat Works in Philadelphia, Pa, froma lite-saving water provider to a vibrant ‘educational center, Karen Young and Dionne Watts-Williams ‘lpr reigned articles from 1990 to preset are aval ree of charge. ? Write for the Journal ural AWWA’ erent eeoting peer reviewed ad eer tie. Frid submission gules atCurb r The Clow is a single-story beauty that's perfect for the safety of any sized family Its unique powder paint costing makes it an eco-friendly and durable addition to the neighborhood. When compared with wet painted hydrants, Clow’s powder coating has better chip resistance, gloss retention and zero VOCs. Combine this durability with being 100% recyclable and you've got a hydrant that will stand out on any street comer. Reliable safety has never looked so good. ¢ CLOW VALVE CO. “sussenimemien siiAmerican Water Works Association ease peer-reviewed articles PORE RS EE ERRE 76 78 Short-Term Forecasting Analysis for Rapid Analysis of Disinfection Municipal Water Demand Efficiency Through Computational A linea eransfer function (LTF) Fluid Dynamics E forecasting model was used for ELPaso, Computational lal dynamics was used 74 Tex. to generate monthly fequeney to inform a reduced-order, epregated- Implications of Engineered jouto-sample simulations of water flow model of chemical reaetions and Nenometeriels in Drinking demand for periods when actual demand inactivation, serving to provide a rapid Want sauees was knoven. The accuracy ofthe ITF valuation of cisinection efficiency. The rise asctaee he oo projections was measure escinark ude a alae with pysieal ape lowed ofegnerd ranomatral erormance was ana oles Soamcsa anda ba led coco fate and eranspore, detection in ag Thomas M, Fullerton Jr, Jie Zhang, Andres B. Tejada Martin envizonments and removal in drinking Aleiandro Ceballos and Adam G, Walke and Qiong Zhang ‘etection methods and source 77 79 feeuetassuues Comparison of Selected Parameter Set Points: An Effective Kelly D. Good, Laren EB Differential-Producing, Ultrasonic, Solution for Real-Time Data Analysis Steven S. Klar, Megan F. Leite, ‘and Magnetic Flow Meters f eT Se This research investigated thre designs _of simple paramttcrsct points asa solu of Venturi meters, a wedge flow met tion for event detection as pate of online 75 YVecone meter, magnetic flow meter, and water quality monitoring, The results Required Cx T Value for Slog Virus an ultrasonic Hlow meter; tested accuracy of two significant staies are presented Inactivation at Full Scale and head loss; and determined longevity each evaluated sophisticated event dete tnd ie cycle cost tiom systems and set-point analysis ing The required fre chlorine C x T (concentration times time) value for LJolnony B. Prettyman, ‘log virus inactivation was measured at Michael C.Jobnson, afullscale water recycling plant theough and Stevew L, Barfuss a suite of racer chlorine decay, and ‘irue-seeding rests on a baffed-channel actual utiligy data and simlated water ‘quality incidents, Katie Umberg and Steven Allgeier Phelps,RELIABILITY Ultities are concerned with the safe operation and stopping ability of their vehicles. Without properly selected, installed and maintained brakes, the risk of life and property loss greatly increases. Gate valves in water distribution systems are no different; only the mast reliable gate valves should be used. That's why water utities prefer Muellor’s 350psi A-236' all-ductile iron resilient wedge gate valve. This triple-isted gate valve is AlS-compliant, easy to handle, and has 2 pressure-assist wedge geometry. These unique features combine to assure a rapid seal when i's needed most. Improved ste safety, aligns valve box and eliminates acaptor + No addtional inventory required ‘Meets the increasing demands of higher water main pressures + Eliminates the need for ant-otation bolts + Less torque required to seal For more information about Mueller or to learn more about the 350psi ductile iron gate valve, call 1.800.423.1323 or visit www.muellercompany.com. MM) 2emross ou Download the 350psi ue Fre op Today, z : ee Mueller Co.) sear vove coy 220. Mateo, Le Re ReeTTS) ETUC David E, Bracciano Regulatory Delays: Starting te Sound Like a Broken Record 16 Market Outlook ‘A Future Water Dystopia ‘Water Worldwide New Water Pricing Models Respond to Decreasing Demand in Germany Tech Talk Outsmarting Costly WaterLoss Culprits People in the News ‘Sustainable Water Management Conference Industry News Media Pulse AWWA Section Meetings Future AWWA Events Product Spotlight Buyers’ Resource Guide List of Advertisers ttre ds eserinp ass te ge Robert M. Clark Joseph A. Coeeuvo, CChuistopher 5. Crockett Daniel E, Giammar “Thomas E:T. Gillogly Richard W. Gullick ‘Charles D. Her Karl G. Linden Darren A. Lytle Joan A, Oppenheimer Christine A. Owen Theresa R. Sliko John E. Tobiason etc eo pee) "AVA the and or wer wot ae eae Davi LaFrance Chit Execute Oficer acl, iberr, Drees atin ‘Mary A Pum Soe Manage“ EiriTHE Q46 SERIES, ES Our 046 Series monitoring systems are economical to purchase, economical to maintain, and provide long term accuracy and reliability for all your monitoring needs! Freechlrine Disated Open wore Combined chaie Suspended Sls Conductivity Total herine eds site Diol Crone suerte Disab sue Twriy Permanganate Disahed Ammonia DE) Toxic & Combustible Ue Transmitter eee acs 800-959-0299 wwwaanalyticaltechnology.comOpen Channe DAVID 8. LaFRANGE, CHEF EXECUTIVE OFFIGER Who Knew Where the Path Would Lead? one knew exactly where the path would take us. Ir started so simply, with 24-page AWWA report tiled Dawn of the Replace ‘ment Ena: Reinvesting in Drinking Water Infrastructure (May 2001) Fifteen years ago, that report prophesied that “over the next 30 years, infrastructure replacement needs will, compete with compliance needs for limited [financial] resources” (page 24). We are now halfway toward that ‘original time horizon and, to date, the projection is nothing short of spot on ‘The Daw of the Replacement Era report initiated the conversation that buried infrasteucture—specif cally the water pipes beneath our feet: ‘commiinities well, bu the useful life of those pipes is not infinite. AWWA started signaling to water utilities that, ifthey were to protect public health and continue to provide high-quality water servic, they needed to has served our reinvest in these critical assets ‘The logic was flawless and, to a knowledgeable water professional, perhaps obvious—but it was not obvious to everyone, And so, since the time of that report, the paths the water sector has taken include use of sur vey and mapping technology to inventory and locate the buried infrastructure, building sophisticated asset management strategies and models, and clevating the sakers Inthe fourth quarter of 2008, the economy took a tuen for the worse, and another new path began—one where utilities had no other choice bur to slow and te prioritize their capital projects. This path was frustat ing for many reasons, not the least of which was that it «did not help solve the bottom-line message of the Datew of the Replacement Era report utilities needed to invest more in their buried water pipes And then ewo new forks in the pach appeared, one after the other. The frst was the quantification of the ‘growing and staggering price tag to replace America’s buried warer pipes. To pet more realistic daca on the scope of the US water infrastructure investment needs, in 2011 AWWA commissioned an important study that produced the groundbreaking report, Buried No Longer: Confronting America's Water Infrastructure Challen; years, mare tha awareness of ths inevitability ¢o decision ‘The report's conclusion: over the next 25 31 crillion was needed to repair and ‘expand drinking water infrastructure. “The second fork in the pach then presented itself Knowing that the costs were not going to go away, and knowing thar access to low-cost capital was key to keeping the impact on ratepayers as low as possible, AWWA started advocating for a federally funded, low: incerestrate loan program, “The low-interesttateinfrastracture-funding program Iknoven as the Water Infrastructure Financing Innoy Act (WIFIA) was signed into law in June 2014 as part of the Water Resources and Reform Development Act. WIFIA, provides low-interest federal loans for up to 49% of the costs for drinking water, wastewater, stormovater, and water ruse projects. However, as it was originally writen, the law prohibited ing the remaining 51%, taking away the mose cost-effective tool for most communities that will seek WIFIA loans. Since the passage of the law, AWWA, along with 4 number of other water sector organizations, has worked to remove the ban on tax-exempt bonds in WIFIA. At AWWA’ 2015 “Water Matters” Fly-I water leaders cook pare in more than 400 meetings with congressional leaders and staff on the issue, urging them to “Free WIFIA” from the budgetary red tape. ‘Those efforts were proved successful last month, December 2015, when Congress passed and President Obama signed into law a transportation bill containing 4 provision cha lifts thar ban on the use of tax-exempt bonds with WIFIA loans, And now, by removing the ban, Congress has freed WIFIA to do its pat in addressing, America’s tillion-dollar water infrastructure challenge. "Now that we have freed WIFIA to do its important work, the path has its next fork: WIFIA must be funded. Rest assured that AWWA, its members, and many others ‘who have worked on WIFIA fora long time— including the National Association of Clean Water Agencies, the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies, and the Wa ter Environment Federation—are now focused on asking ‘Congress to provide funding for both WIFIA loans and state revolving fund programs in fiscal year 2016. The truth is, when the Dawn of the Replacenrent Ena report was published, we did not know we would end up passing a law for low-cost financing, And while there is more to do, and the infrastructure challenge remains, we are glad that we followed the paths leading to WIFLA. So, to quote Yogi Berra, the lesson here is that if you ‘come to a fark in the path, you should take i. exempt bonds from hLetter__ to the Editor. WATERBORNE DISEASE INTHE DEVELOPING WORLD As ¢ representative of an institutional subscriber of your journal, I would like co make a small but impor: tant comment to the excellent article by Biler eta, “The LifePump Innovation for Developing Countries” (2015, Vol. 107, No. 5, pp. 48-54), The authors point to a UNICEF publication claiming that unclean drinking water causes about 1.5 million diaetheal deaths per annum. This corresponds to 10 ry day. ment is not accurate, hows jumbo jer crashes es The sta unbygienic conditions, only a fraction of children's er because in diartheal episodes (perhaps 15 t0 25%) are actall strictly waterborne. The remaining 75 washable, and thus preventable, by effectively organizing household water supply and sanitation, which ultimately ‘enables cleanliness and proper hygienic practices and the very low endemicity of diarrheal diseases we enjoy in oss & Valdmanis 2006). This very common error, even amongst specialists developed world (Cairn and qualified physicians, i imporrant ro recognize because repeated diarrheal bouts before a childs first birthday is @ root cause of under-nutrition, Developed ‘countries eradicated under-nutrtion to a large degree by developing water supply and sanitation infrastructure Under-nutrtion i tll che number-one contributor of mortality in children young (Paunio & Acharya 2008). Mikko Paunio Medical Counselor Ministry of Social Affairs and Health Finland Helsinki, Finland Traps do ogi $942;jwwa 2016 108.0088 REFERENCES Calmeroes, Salman, 2006, Water Supp, Sentation end Hygiene Promaton Disease Control Prontes in Dovelopng Counees (2nd ed Oxford rivers Pres, Oso, UX Worl an, Washington. Pun, M.& Acharya, A, 2008 Environment Health an Chid ‘Sunvval Epiomlagy, Economics, Expeiones. Evironment and Daparmomt, The Word Bank Washington \sThe Journal AWWA weleamas commants and feedback 2 journal@swne.org, From 30 hours to just 3. Nene aes Ig er ene a heel tk Pea ee PA ne ae Peo CT aC Ln Cao Kamstrup Water Metering React et this QRcode or visiDG Beater eee 7 J. ALAN ROBERSON, Regulatory Delays: Starting to Sound Like a Broken Record his columa is appearing in the Janvary 2016 issue of Journal AWWA, and the start of the new ake stock past (hope rear can be a time to and look back at th fully to lara from it) and forward to the future hopefully to apply the lessons learned from the pas). Inthe drinking water regulatory arena, both the past and the future look pretty similar in that most regulations are delayed, final publica tion dates are uncertain (more delays), and water systems face challenges in planning for any creat ‘ment modifications or improvements. And clarity and certainty in the drinking water regulatory arena are notin the eards for the future Given the current poliieal climate in Washington, D.C., and the upcoming 2016 presidential elec: who really knows how the budgets for the Us Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) will fare over the next five to 10 years? The past decade has not heen kind to the budget of USE PA's Office of Groundwater and Drinking Water (QGWDW), both in terms of hudget dollars and the number of full-time equivalents (FTEs) From a dollar perspective, OGWDW's budget has decreased by 1.9% over the past decade, which does not sound like a lot but doesn’e eake into account a decade of inflation (Cooper 2015}, In the same time frame, the number of FTEs has and this is more signfican for the drinking water regulatory schedule as fewer people are working on the regulations. An add sional contribution to the delays has been the decreased by 11.7" administration's focus on ether environmental n and Waters of the United States, leading to less ofa focus on rules such as the Clean Power Pl drinking water regulations In working on this column, 1 went back and reviewed some of my regulatory updates from the past couple of yeats, including a March 2014 column on the regulatory delays at that time (Roberson 2014). Berween 2014 and the present (approximately two years), every regulatory action has slipped anywhere from one to four yeats. From my own point of view, it's interesting to nore thar the schedules for proposed and final regulations have been slipping presty consistently for the last four to five years. These delays arc nothing new, but its becoming problematic for ime to take my own predictions for the schedule for any regulatory action seriously, and i's not going to get any hetter in the future Ie’ also interesting t0 note that che last new national primary drinking water regulation wasalmost three years ago—the Revised Total Coliform Rule that was published in the Federal Register on Feb. 13, 2013 (78 FR 10269). And ie nor completely clear ‘when the next new national primary drinking water regulation (of a revision of an existing standard) is oing to come out, but you can sce another one of my “crystal ball” regulatory predictions later in this col- uum, It should also be noted that no regulation for a new" contaminant has come out of the regulaeary development process in the 1996 Safe Drinking Water ‘Act (SDWA) amendments. Not that Iam a proponent for more national drinking water regulations, but these ‘wo observations prompt the question of how well the SDWA regulatory development process is working and Whar measures one might use to determine whether ies ‘working (or not) That's a topic for a future column. REGULATORY STATUS REVIEW As a quick review, the 1996 SDWA amendments man- dated two regulatory processes ‘+ The Contaminant Candidate List (CCL) and Regulatory Determination are for a new contam inant. USEPA is required to publish a CCL every five years and to make decisions known as regi latory determinations on at least five contami- nants every five years, These decisions are not -essarily binary yes/no, buc rather a decision could he that more research is needed or that guidance is more appropriate than a regulation. If USEPA makes a positive regulatory determina on, then a proposed rule must be published 24 months after that decision. A final rule must be published 18 months after the proposal, but the USEPA administracar can ask for a nine jonth extension on that deadline ‘+ The Six-Year Review process mandates that USEPA evaluate all existing drinking wacer regula- tions every six years on the basis of any new health effects, analytical methods, occurrence, and treatment dara, and to determine whether a revi- sion to the regulation is warranted. Ie should be noted that USEPA doesn't have any deadlines for the proposed or final revisions once it makes the decision to revise a regulation, ‘The twa processes are the foundation for developing and revising national primary drinking water regula- tions. Both processes are consistently making their ‘way through OGWDW and are driven hy the respec: tive SDWA deadlines, and progress is being made in meeting those deadlines. In 2016, USEPA is expected ta publish the proposed Fourth Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR 4) the final Third Regulatory Determinations, the final Fourth Drinking Water Contaminant Candidate List (CCL), as well as the ‘Third Six-Year Review. And that’s a fair amount of regulatory activity ina single year Table 1 presenes my latest “crystal ball” regulatory predictions, which [am surmising at chis point will con tinue to move forward in USEPA’ regulatory develop: ment process. Keep in mind thae it’s difficult for me to take my own predictions seriously anymore hecause of the continuous slippages, and Table 1 also assumes no ‘major changes resulting from the 2016 elections. Each ‘of the regulations has its own hack story that I have summarized in the following paragraphs. CMR 4. The proposed UCMR 4 ended up being published in late 2015, as it appears that the Office of Management and Budget waived its tradicional review ‘of regulations. This is another iteration of the rule- makings to fll ehe occurrence data gaps in CCLs, USEPA held a UCMR 4 stakeholder meeting in June 2014 to provide stakeholders with some details on contaminants being considered for UCMR 4 (79 FR 30787). This proposal listed 11 analytical methods for 530 chemical contaminants/groups, consisting of 10 cyanocoxins/groups: wo metals; eight pesticides plus ‘one pesticide manufacturing by-product; three bromi- nated haloacetie acid groups of disinfection by-products (DBPs}; three alcohols; and three semivolatile organic chemicals. The final UCMR 4 is antieipated to he pub- lished in late 2016 or early 2017, and UCMR 4 moni toring is anticipated to start in January 2018. Long-term revisions tothe Lead and Copper Rule (LCR). A National Drinking Water Advisory Council (NDWAC) Lead and Copper Rule Working Group met throughout 2014 and 2015 to develop recommenda: tions for the long-term LCR revisions. The final meeting of the working group was held June 24-25, 2015, and al report was completed soon thereafter. The TABLE 1 Roguiatory predictions ate Proposal | Final Four Uneeglted Gonuminant | 2016 | 2007 ‘Monitoring ile (UCM) Long'Ter Revsionstowsetad | 2017 | 2018/2010 ‘an Copper tale ‘Compounasevoes)" Stsontlum ita postive regulatory | 2018 | 2019-2020, \kermination mak) sanoroxins ams_| ams ae pepe he ator pai ah et ay ha ay mean puso wl bereport was sent ro the full NDWAC for review at its seeting on Nov. 17-19, 2015. The working group pro- cess has heen slaw as a result ofthe breadth and depeh of the issues being discussed, such as developing inven tories of lead service lines, lead service line replacement, ‘optimized corrosion control, how in-home sampling right be revised, corrosivity of water for new/replaced ‘copper plumbing, ete. After NDWAC approval (some time in late 2015 or early 2016), USEPA will have ¢9 assess how the recommendations could be incorporated into the proposed revisions. USEPA's assessment could take a year or more, $0 the proposed revisions are not likely to be published until 2017 at the earliest. Perchlorate, Perchlorate has been moving slowly through the regulatory development process since is positive regulatory determination in February 2011 (76 ER 7762), USEPA is expected 10 initiate the peer-review process by the end of 2015 on the revised physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PHPK) model developed to address recommendations provided by the Perchlorate Advisory Panel of Science Advisory Board in 2D13. Its hoped that the release ofthe PBPK mode! will provide some indication of che maximum contaminant level that may be proposed by USEPA, but there also isthe possi- bility that che PBPK model may show chat a perchlorate rile would nat meet the eriteria in SDWA Section 1414(b)(1\A)(il for “a meaningful opportunity for health risk reduction” for a regulation for a nev contam- inant. A proposed perchlorate rule is “projected” to be published in 2017, whichis why the regulatory schedule shown in Table 1 includes questions marks. Carcinogenic volatile organic compounds. Carcino: genie volatile organic compounds (eVOCs) were iden- tified in 2011 as potentially being the frst regulation by groups resulting from USEPA’s 2010 Drinking Water Strategy (USEPA 2011). Regulating by groups hhas turned out go be a concept that initially sounded ood but is turning out to be more challenging to develop than originally anticipated. 1,2,3-trichloro: propane (TCP) was originally anticipated co he a river for this tule, but the lacest data compilation from UCMR 3 shows only approximately 1.3% of the systems with concentrations above USEPA reference concentration (Eaton 2015}. This low percentage will likely make ie challenging to demonstrate that a regu: lation meets the SDWA criteria for “a meaningful opportunity for health risk reduction” for a regulation for a new contaminant. USEPA is waieing on small: system monitoring data for 1,2,3-TCP ea see whether the occurrence increases, but there isa real chance that USEPA may nor move forward with the VOC rule, which is why the regulatory schedule shown in ‘Table | contains questions marks. ‘Strontium. On Oct. 20,2014, USEPA published the pre liminary Thied Regulacory Determinations (79 FR 62716), As a reminder, in this notice, USEPA made one positive preliminary determination for strontium and four prelimi- nary negative determinations for 1,3-dinitrobenzene, dimethoate, terbufos, and rerbufos sulfone. The esti- mated publication date for the final Third Regulatory Determinations has slipped into early 2016. Serantium has some significant health effect issues that need to he resolved efore USEPA maves forward ‘with a proposed or final scrontiaum regulacion. Treat: ment questions also need to be resolved before the final regulation. Ultimately, USEPA would have to prove that 4 strontium regulation would “present a meaningful ‘opportunity for health risk reduction.” In 2014, AWWA published a briefing paper on the potential regulatory implications for strontium ro pro- vide some contextual information for utilities that might be concerned with compliance with a potential strontium rule in the future (AWWA 2014). stron- rium regulation would potentially affect many small ‘groundwater systems, If the forward with a strontium regulation, then USEPA has to propose the strontium regulation within 24 monchs ‘of the final determination (early 2018}, and then pub. lish the final regula proposal, noring char the USEPA administrator can ‘grant itself a nine-month extension af the deadline for the final rule (into late 2019 or early 2020}, ‘Cyanotoxins. Cyanocoxins have jumped up om the regu lacory priority lis since Toleda’s (Ohio) “do nor drink” ‘order in August 2014 and USEPA’ Jane 15, 2015, release of health advisories for two eyanotoxins (USEPA 2015a} For children under school age (younger chan six), the 0-day health advisory levels are 0.3 pg/L. for microcys: tin and 1.6 pg/L for cylindrospermopsin. For children six and older and adults, the 10-day health advisory levels are 0.7 ya/L for microcystin and 3.0 yal fr eylindro: spermopsin, Cyanotoxins (asa group) were listed on the Draft CCL that was published in early 2015, and a number of eyanotoxins will almost certainly be incluced in UCMR 4 that will be proposed in 2016. ‘Simultaneous with the health advisories, USEPA released some relatively detailed monitoring, treatment, and communications recommendations for water sys~ tems (USEPA 2013b). Over the summer of 2015, there |was quite a it of variation in how states were using, these numbers, and what actions systems took if con- centrations increased above these numbers is sill unclear. Many systems have been concerned about the implementation of these health advisories, particularly ‘with level of quantitation for the ELISA method in a laboratory (0.3 pail.) being exactly at the 10-day health nal decision is to move jon within 18 months after theadvisory level. AWWA has developed a new eyanorox: ins resource community webpage that inchides a cyano- Water Utility Manager's Guide to Cyanotoxins (compiled in conjunc tom with the Water Research Foundation), which provides an overview of the many complex technical toxin treatment calculator, as well sth issues surrounding cyanotoxins (AWWA 2015). ‘On Aug. 7,2015, President Barack Obama signed inte lave the Drinking Water Protection Act (PL. 114-45), Which amends the SDWA with the inten ro contral har ful algal blooms in drinking water. The legislation required USEPA to develop and submit a plan to Congress by Nov 5,2015,to evaluate harmful eyanotoxins risk to human health and to recommend feasible treatment options £0 mitigate any adverse public health effects. The aw also requites USEDA to publish a ist of harmfal eyanotoxins, ‘summarize their known adverse health effects, and issue health advisories for the ones of greatest concern. There are sill ots of analytical method, accurtence, and treat ment questions for eyanotoxins that need to be resolved before a national regulation is developed. Given the focus in Congress and at USEPA, regulations addressing eyanotoxins ether asa group oF individually, are likely at some point in the future. Cyanotoxins were listed on the Draft CCL4 and are likely o be included on the LICMR 4. On the basis of the UCMK 4 data, USEPA, could move them forward in the eegularory development process with the fourth round of regulatory determina: tions that is scheduled to be finalized in 2021. A pro: posed cyanotoxins rule could be proposed two years later in 2023, and the final rule approximately ewo years after the proposal in 2025. OF course, the USEPA admin istrator could always move forward with an “emergency regulation” if cireumstanees warrant it, RECOMMENDATIONS ‘So what's a water system supposed to do with all of these delays and the resultant uncertainties? IFT were in charge of planning or engineering at a water system, and I was looking ata plan’ reatment modification ar expan- sion, [would plan for maximum flexibility. If posible one should leave space for potential advanced treatment processes such as ozone or granular activated carbon or tuleraviolet light, and build tees and valves wich blind flanges in case such advanced treatment processes need t0 bbe added in the future. les not clear to me what the next ‘contaminant du jour” is going to be, and any water system manager and planner needs to plan for flexibiliey when ‘making decisions bout treatment Yb. processes Even with potential administration changes resulting. from the 2016 presidential election, the environmental statutes, such as the SDWA and the Clean Warer Act. will remain on the books, and USEPA will still be tasked with the implementation of those laws. So withoue specific environmental legislation from Congress, USEPA will still have to perform the required by the various environmental statutes. How ver, priorities and budgers could change under a new administration and a new Congress. _J.Alan Roberson is the director of federal relations for AWWA in Washington, D.C, He can be reached at sroberson@anwa.org. Tupi cong 10.5942. 2016, 108.0030 REFERENCES 18 F782, 201. rinking Water: Repuatry Determination on Porhlorato.tps/Tederalregistorgava/011-2603(aceassod Now 13,208) 785 106202. Nationl Pinar Drinking Water Requltions: Rev sion tothe Total Coform Rul. tp:edarshapter, tevlor2012 31205 eccosced Nov. 13, 2018, 79FR20TE, 2014, Nate of Public Mowing and WotinarRovisions to ‘th Unrgulated Contaminant Merstaring Rule UCHR) for Puc Water Syston. 7aFRG2TIG, 24 Announcement fPrlinary Regulatory Deterina: ‘infor Contaminants onthe Thi Drinking Water Contaminant Candidate Uist hep federaogister gow/a014 24582 fac cessed N13 25, AWWA 2015, Cyanotaxins Resource Carma aia awe oral ‘esourcessuolswater-knonledgeseyancosns.asox accessed oer 1,208 AWWA, 2014 The Patent Regultory Impistios of Sram, wa: aua oriperls/Mlasiegreidaeuments/2016WW stroniumoratingpaper pt accessed Oct 1, 7015, Cooper T, 218 Parsonel communication Eaton, A, 2015, Personal communication PL 144,205 ring WeterPatucton Act opdingp gutsy pkg PLAW-114pbiSeomant dahl accessed No. 3 018) Robarson, JA, 204, Fa Yards for Delay of Game, Journal AMWA, 108518 (March 2014 USEPA, 018 2016 Oring Wet Hoa ioe for Tuo Oyarobact ‘al Tex hunnopa gustoroductonlosA16 Oe rentyanbine fact shoo 205 pe second Ost 205) USEPA 201, Recormendation fo Publi isa Systoms to Manage Cjanatoxine in Denking ata hxpwt2.opa govt ‘iowfies/2015o8ocumentsyanotocn management inking ‘str pet accessed Oc 2015) USEPA 2011, Basic Guessone and Answers on Regulating by Groupe hip ator apa govlawsragerulerogesdealéweretgy) uplosdFactShootOrinkingWatrStratoay_VOCs pa accoseod Sopt 0 2015) De atAT | 106 + JOURNAL AWA | JANUARY 20615A Future Water Dystop Editor’ note: The following article was condensed and adapted from the prologue to Sieve Maxwell’ 2001 book, The Future of Water: A Startling Look Ahead, Published by AWWA, Maxwells book highlights a broad range of future water resource challenges and how we need to adapt technological and policy approaches to address these confounding issues. “To underline th severity of this challenge, this excerpt is a fctional look at ome possible future water scenario + was late October, in the year 2111. As the early sun streamed into his bedroom window, Joe awak ened to another hot, sweaty morning, in one of the still populated areas of northwest Los Angeles. As his wife rolled aver and threw off the sheer, Joe lay in bed for a few minutes, reflecting on the events of the past few weeks before dragging himself ro the water room, Today he was going to find out if he was one of the lucky ones or ifhe was one of the guys who would be lai off, as his company continued to cut back its West Coast water trading presence, ‘They didn't have much reason to stay in L.A. these {days anyway, thought Joe. The las few family members that he and his wife Ellen had in the area had recenely picked up and moved back to the booming Cleveland~ Buffalo corridor, where a good bit of US manufacturing was now concentrated. And many of their long-term friends had long since migrated back to the Midwest or found jobs with the North American government in the ‘Winnipeg area. In the water room, Joe flipped on the solar fan, then relieved himself into the urine recycler. He heard the ulerasonie distillation tank kick in behind the wall—the low sound that, much to her consternation, always ‘woke up Ellen. Joe listened as the tank disgorged a pint ‘or so of clean water into the column above the sink, A few seconds later, he could heat the concentrated by- product stream discharge through the filter and into the crystallization reactor in the basement, Joe rubbed his eyes and tried o remember what day it was. Tuesday—his day for a shower. He jumped into the moisture compartment, sealed the door and hit the “wet” button so thar he could lather up. A couple min- utes laces, he hie the “rinse” burton and Iusuriated in a full 30-second stream of nice hot water (ir had been sunny all day yesterday, and the water in the rooftop. tank was stil nise and warm). “OK, honey, you can get up now," said Joe as he stepped out of the compartment and started to dry off with his nanosorb wipes. Then he threw on some shorts, and went into the kitchen, pulled outa bottle of fresh REWater, and mixed up some milk for his morning, cereal. “Non-Fossil—100% Recycled—Save Our Continent” said the label on the side of the bortl. JJoe knew that it was probably going to be trouble at the office today. He'd been wrestling back and forth in, his mind for several weeks about what to do when the time came. As a water trader, he knew the situation was only getting worse, and there was no longer much sense in pretending thar much of a market remained in theL.A. area. There just wasn’e that much trading activity poing on anymore. Joe chewed on his cereal. Ie was only about two hun dred years ago, he thought, that this whole place was just, «big pile of sand, with maybe afew palm erees. And it ‘may not be too long before it's just pile of sand again. ‘We eame in and dumped some water on it, and almost ‘overnight it became one of the most heavily populated and concentrated centers of economic power anywhere in the world, or for that matte, in the history of the world Dut those days are over. That was sort of a mirage. Now, Joe worried, Souchern California seemed to be dying almost as quickly as it had been built. An armed insurrection in Colorado in the late 2050s had event: ally led to the landmark Supreme Court case in 2066 that cue California's share of the declining Colorado River lows, and soon thereafter the massive Southern California economy began to decline, And after the protracted drought and the huge popsilation losses of the 2080s, many of the area cities decided they could no longer afford to provide the public with water, and they shu down many of the water distribution systems in the Inland Empire. Thankfully Joe’: home was in the Hollywood Hills area—one of the few that still had a ‘centralized water distribution system of sorts albeit in 4 state of ominous distepa Extensive water pipelines from the Northwestern United States and Canada were built during the middle years of the century to ery to maintain irrigation in the Central Valley and to support other population centers in the American Southwest. However, as problems worsened, Americans had finaly recognized what skep- ties had been saying for decades: the southwestern oasis had been a mirage from day one. With rising seas, Los Angeles experienced wide-seale seawater intrusion into its key coastal freshwater aqui fers, exacerbating the surface water shortages that were already a tightening noose around the city’s neck. Rising sca levels pretty much killed the coastal communities Then the ill-fated effort zo take down the Hoover Dam in the 2080s caused vast and unforeseen ecological impacts downstream and farther depressed the econ ‘omy-—and perhaps more important, the general mood— ‘of Los Angeles. 1 was sort of like historical swing of the pendulum, thoughe Joe—but opposite to the way it bad swang a hundeed and fifty years earlier, when the rpew dam buoyed the development of Southern Califor pia, and an American vietory in World War I brought the United States out of the Great Depression, By the late 2090s, the rich people were beginning £0 have water eucked into cheit neighborhoods from the north. As the oasis of heautiful gardens and golf ‘courses dried out and decayed, the basin was once ‘more gradually turning back ino a desert. Joe remem: bered once when he had been able to fly into L.A. from 1 meeting back east; he had looked down as they came in above the virtual ghost-own areas of eastern San Bernardino and Riverside counties, From che ain, Los Angeles was starting to resemble a mummified skele- ton; the freeways looked like aging, britle bones push- ing out against a stretched and drying skin, As more people let for Vancouver, Ketchikan, Winnipeg, and beyond, some of their abandoned homes were being taken over by immigrants arriving from farther south in Mexico and Central America, ‘The once-blooming desert cities of Phoenix, Tueson, and Las Vegas also fell into decay quite quickly: once the major reservoirs began to decline, and a couple of the key pipelines were shu down, they couldn't hope to survive. Other smaller southwestern cities dependent on ‘external water sources were turing into ghost towns by the end of the century—reminiscent of the time, «wo ‘centuries earlier, when the gold and silver veins ran dry. Aer the nationalization of the energy industry, the Southwest became even less habitable; a ban on ait- conditioning and widespread water shortages essen tially left no alternative to northward migration. [As the climate slowly dried across the southern United States, agricultural fertiligy—and later, large seg- ments of the human population—started slowly but surely £0 migrate to the north. As the winters shortened, the forests of the American West were decimated, first by pine beetles and later by massive wikdland fires that attacked the weakened forests Infact, the western skies were so darkened with smoke for many years in the late ‘century that some seientists even predicted a long-term reversal in the warming trend, ‘Winter snowpack declined, and with that many of the western cites saw their primary source of water decline. Year after year the streams ran dry by midsum: mer, reservoirs dipped, and fires overran the ecosystem. In earlier days, glacial melt had helped supplement the river flow in dey years, bus now the glaciers were mostly gone as well In some regions sufficient water still ran, bu reservoirs ‘covildn’ he bul fase enough ea store the spring runoff Water storage capacity started to become the key driver behind commerce and demographies. Most of the Rocky “Mountain-area population was beginning to migrate toward the Midwest of into Canada by the end of the ‘century for just this reason. The net resul was that ‘experts were predicting that by the year 2120, the demo- ‘graphic center of the North American continent would be located somewhere just southeast of the capital of Winnipeg-—a huge shift in bodies ro the north ‘The major financial institutions were among the first to truly understand and recognize the eventual eco: nomic impact of the warming climate and the vsing, seas, Several of them helped to underwrite the forty- niners—the firms that led the great “Ice Rush” of Greenland in 2049, wo hundred years afte the gold rush, The big financial firms hegan to withdraw from. ‘wanes? OUTLOOK | 1004 + JOURNAL AMWA | JAnUARY 2956 17[New York City with several firms moving their peo ple to Cleveland in 2061. Joe's own employer moved to Buffalo a couple of years later. The eco nomic power and cultural dominance of the major Eastern cities began to decline, while what had long been called the *rust belt” cit ies enjoyed a measured revitalization, Te wasn’t much of a surprise, mused Joe, as Ihe downed his lat few sips of coffee and started to dress for work, when the United States finally “invaded” Canada in 2083. ‘Actually, ic wasn’t so much an invasion as a friendly takeover. The president of the United States at the time, Jon-Michae! Simpson, was from northern Vermont and of partly French-Canadian ancestry, He'd called his Canadian counterpart eo tell him of the impending action, and then made a rare di tal holographic address to the nation prior to sending, troops over the harder on a warm Sunday evening. Despite a few isolated pockets of token resistance in the Great Plains region, the American soldiers quickly took command of the key water and energy resources in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. Once these c cal resources were secured, the United States and an agreeable Canadian prime minister sat down at a negoti- ating table in Minneapolis and decided thar—acting, together with the combined military and economic resources of the United States and the natural resources ‘of Canada—they would form che dominant political entity in the new world order Ir later turned our thar Canadian premier Roland Garth, weeks easier, had essentially asked the United States to invade his country—to do what many practical people in hoth countries realized should be dane in order for them both to better survive in the rapidly changing geopolitical balance. Compared with other more fragile ‘water-and energy-based coalitions chat were emerging in other corners of the world, the Canadians and the Americans meshed quite well. Between them, they had. the wealth of warer and natural resources and the inge- rity and drive to build a commanding politcal pres: ‘ence, For decades, the North American population had teen gradually migating north and toward the center of the continent. The migrants sensed that a central lacus might provide them some level af protection in the faeare and looked over their shoulders: Winnipes was declared the capital in 2091, Winnipeg could probably be a pretty livable place if we had to move there, thought Joe. It still gor a litle cold in the middle of the winter, bur it was pleasant most of the year and was still a comfortable thousand miles or so from the deserts encroaching from the south. ‘The Canadian water and energy resources were extensive, enough eo support the continent's popula tion for a while, but the North American long-range planners were beginning to realize that they would eventually need more, With that in mind, they had begun, actually many years before, to eye Central ‘Africa—the world’s poorest and economically most dysfunctional area. The northern half of “Africa was basically unpopulated by the beginning of the twenty-second century Many of its original people were gone; the ‘more resourceful fled the continent ‘entirely, while most of those from the more impoverished countries perished during the interminable erek southward ‘The southern tip of Africa also dried and then politically disintegraed during the lat: ter half of the century, with the wealthier peo- ple moving north. Nows the steamy and formerly backward center of the continent held an allure as one fof the world’ richest sources of water and minerals— and many predicted it would become a key ceanomic and finan center of the future, Kinshasa as a key economic center of the world—who would have guessed that a hundeed years ago, Joe asked hhimsclf. And all just because it happens ro have a lot of water. Nowadays, Joc and Ellen had gotten comfortable using about 20 gallons of water per day. Joe’ grandta ther, on the other hand, even inthe drought of the 2030s, had used close to 200 gallons a day. But no matter how much they used, water was still expensive: they were spending a ot more on water these days than on food. If ‘water elimbs above $7 a gallon, Joe thought, we can’t afford to stay here—even if | do manage to keep my job for a while longer We'te already spending almost $150 a day on i, We'll simply have to follow the eroved and move to where the jobs are—where the water is. Why did humans ever decide they wanted to live inthis place anyway, Joe wondered. All you've got co do is just, Took outside and you can see that it's going to turn back into one big desert. Ie was a pretty inhospitable desert ‘when those first folks showed up, to0. And now they're actually talking about turning off the Vancouver pipeline. Joc and Ellen both knew here was no way they could afford to have their water erucked i, like the remaining ‘wealhy families dowa in Hancock Park were doing. Maybe those idiots who are talking about opening up. 1 water resort on the moon aren as crazy as everybody thinks they ace, Joe mutzered under his breath, as he got 1p co head to the office, Maybe I should se if there hr ing. OK, maybe not the moon, but Joe was increasingly thinking about following a couple of his buddies, and ‘moving to Northern Canada, or maybe even to Africa There were good water jobs in both places. Thar's where the water i; that’s where the opportunities ate his friends hha said. That’s where the future is. One of these days, 1 really am going to have co sit down and talk with Ellen about all ofthis. She wanes to get the kids out of here, anyway. But not today. “Bye, honey, I'll see you conight.” Jo said, as he slipped out the door and into the heat.‘es this scenario sound a litle crazy and a litle scary? Seary—eertainly. Crazy—we don't know. Hopefully, our furure will not turn into this kind of dystopia Maybe it will urn ouc chac with smarter water con servation systems and with wiser water management policies, che California lifestyle thar we know today ‘can remain vibrant, Maybe in 100 years, California’s economy will be driven by a vast array of solar panels, in the Mojave Desert. Perhaps the Central Valley of California will be retuened to its original state, and people will buy most of theit food from the Midwest, acknowledging that rain-fed agriculture is more sus tainable, Mayhe millions of rooftop harvesting systems ‘will collect rainwaters and direct them through the home's internal uses and then onto extensive vegetable gardens in the font yard. Perhaps 100 years from now, desalination powered by the waves will help provide ‘enough freshwarer to keep homes and industry function- ing just fine. Perhaps well have g ‘grass that can be irrigated with seawater, so the children ‘of the furure can play on grass, nor plastic. Maybe storm waters will he collected and delivered to distributed neighborhood water treatment plants eather than evn: ning unused to the ea, Perhaps the word “waste” itself weccally modified will fade from our vocabulary, and we will ee in every thing a resource—a possibilty. Perhaps. The availability and the price of water will increasingly come to dominate economic, political, and social trends in the future, Unlike other commodities, water i ifi- nitely renewable, but its supply is essentially fixed, and ‘we have no substitutes whatsoever for the critical role that water plays in each of our lives. And no matter how many people end up living on this small planet, we are always going to have exactly the same amount of water —Steve Maxwell is managing director of TechKNOWLEDGEy Strategie Group, 2 Boulder, Colo ‘based management consultancy specializing in transaction advisory services and strategic planning forthe water Industry. He writes the annual Water Market Reviews comprehensive summary of trends and developments te world water industry, and isthe author of The Furare ‘of Water: A Starling Look Ahead (AWWA 2011), from whicl this content is adapred. Maxwell bas advised dozens of water firms on strategy and transactional issues, ‘and can be reached at (303) 442-4800, maxwell@tech- strategy.com, or vis Twitter: @emaxwell water Inups d.og/10.5942fawwa.2016.108.0022 ROSEDALE PRODUCTS INC. Multiple application, easy-to- bag filters. eee ree na See Poet eer) Se 800.821.5378 - RosedaleProducts.comWater : PAUL D. REITER, Worldwide coum coorpinaror MARK OELMANN, CHRISTOPH CZICHY, AND NORBERT JARDIN ater utilities in Germany and many ‘other Northern European countries are being confronted with significant decreases in drinking water demand, This isnot a short-term problem and the reasons are diverse, hur the consequential challenges are manifested in a rather simple problem: the eost an c -e not aligned, Today German w stantial revenue losses. To avoid vtliies in Germany have needed to significantly adjust their pri this economic challenge, there also are physical/opera tional problems within supply nerworks associated price spiral, growing number of warer ing models to the new situation. In addition to with a decreasing water demand, especially if the sup- ply necwork has heen designed to cope with a substan- tial increase during the lifetime of the system. Longer retention times can cause hygienic problems and result ina temperature increase, a higher vulnerability for corrosion, and a possible deterioration of customer acceptance of drinking water DECREASING DRINKING WATER DEMAND IN GERMANY ‘The drinking water demand in Germany has decreased significantly compared with previous decades. Consumption per capita per day (including houscholds and small commercial customers) declined from 147 L in 1991 t0 122 L in 2014—a decrease of 17% (BDEW 2015}. In addition, industrial demand fell New Water Pricing Models Respond to Decreasing Demand in Germany from 1,17 billion m? in 1991 to 0.64 billion min 2013 (BDEW 2013), ‘There are a number of reasons for this development. First of al, declining birth rates in Geemany have led to a reduced water demand. In addition, and as seen all over the world, urbanization and therefore densifi- cation is particularly pronounced in Germany. While the population is shrinking in more rural settlements, especially in che eastern part of the country, economic centers—e.g,, cities like Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg, for Cologne—are attracting more and more people, with higher densities and lower per-capita tion rates Ar the same time, the industrial sector in Germany has undergone a structural change, resulting in fewer manufacturing companies and more service providers that use significantly less water. In addition, a variety of efficiency improvements for household appliances have noticeably reduced domestic demand present-day dish washing machines are very econom terms of water use. These efficiency gains have been accelerated by European Union directives aimed at forcing the limitation of water use to reduce the con- sumption of energy needed to heat water for various domestic purposes. washers alin ‘THE TECHNICAL/OPERATIONAL CHALLENGE FOR WATER UTILITIES Drinking water supply systems are uswally designed for lifetime periods of more than 50 years, for whichswater demand has to be planned on the basis of assumed demographic changes, with the water demand for households and industries as the main design parameters. IFthe water utility and system planners subscantially overestimate future water demand, this ‘ill cause severe problems within the drinking water network, whereas the effects on the requirements for raw water could he far less pronounced, ‘To illustrate the importance of accurate predictions ‘of water demand, the comparison berween different studies of renowned institutes in Germany ate instruc tive, These insticures predieted in 1975 a significant inerease of the water demand for houscholds in Germany for the year 2000 in the range between 193 and 219 Iped (Wrieke 8¢ Korth 2007). On the basis of these projections, most of the drinking water usiliies’ supplies were planned. The actual consumption in Germany for 2000 was 136 Iped. In addition to this, the future number of drinking water customers was in most cases significantly overestimared. By combining these ewo factors, a substantial mismatch hetween the planned capacity of the whole supply system and actual drinking warer demand has been created, result ing in considerably longer retention times in drinking, ‘water pipes and even stagnation in parts of the water distribution network. The most severe concerns regarding these longer retention times are possible hygienic problems and corrosion, Asa result of longer retention times in pipes, the {question was raised about whether the frequency of harmful bacteria was increased because these bacteria concentrations are associated with stable biofilms in the pipes affected by the demand for tap water. The answer to this question has heen demonstrated in investigations focusing on the effects of longer reten: tion times and elevated temperatures on the colony ‘numbers at the end of an 80-km-long transmission pipeline. The results of this study show that there was no difference in calony numbers as a result of different retention cimes (herween 60 and 150 hy) and tempera- ture (20°C up to 36°C), The biofilm in this transmis: sion pipeline is stable enough to avoid a significant transfer of free hactetia from the biofilm into the free flowing water (Wricke & Korth 2007). The situation is completely different in cases in which no stable biofilm occurs—e.g. after flushing oF disinfecting parts of the water distribution system. In these eases, stagnation of water in the pipes might result in increased colony numbers in the drinking water at the tap. Longer retention times or stagnation in parts ofthe supply system can also induce corrosion of unprotected cast-iron or iron pipes. Depending on the local situa tion, a complete depletion of oxygen is possible, result: ing in a reduction of ferric to ferrous iron, which subse {quently can be once again oxidized as soon as the water is oxygenated-—e.g., when the water is drawn from the tap—resulting in rusty water. In addition to this pro: cess, corrosion products as a result of elevated retention times ean be transported into other parts of the water distribution network, forming sediments there that can be resuspended during periods of elevated veloc 8s during the morning, when water consumption rap- idly increases compared with nighstime use dentifying areas of stagnation in the network—either with measurements in critical parts of the network or by using hydraulic modeling—is key in finding the most appropriate solution for avoiding hygienic problems and corrosion, Typical measures as a result ofthese investigations are to shut down areas of stagnation, change pipes and/or pipe material, develop adapted flushing plans, and use corrosion inhibitors. Disinfee tants may also deteriorate the stability of biofilms, so care must be taken in using disinfectants, as biofilms are an important part of the microbial balance in water distribution networks ‘THE FINANCIAL CHALLENGE FOR WATER UTILITIES ‘Warer utilities in Germany are increasingly under pressure hecause of the trend in decreasing water demand. Their main service is the provision and maintenance of the water supply system. The necessary infrastructure has a utilization period of several decades. Hence, up to $0% of total costs are fixed and cannot really be influenced by the wacer utility. However, the vast majority of German utilities have a revenue structure that does not match their cost struetute; on average, only around 23% of their revenue is fixed—ie,, independent from the actual water demand (VKU 2015} ‘The problem of a fundamental mismatch between cst and revene structure becomes abvious in times of demand decreases. Since utilities suffer from substantial revenue losses because of high prices per cubic meter, the most obvious solution seems to be a rate increase. However, raising the price per eubie meter further increases incentives for customers to save water. AS a consequence, a price spiralis being initiated (Oclmann ‘8 Gendries 20122), Although it might seem paradoxical at first the prob- lem is also relevane for usiiies that have a stable water demand because of a growing population and corre spondingly high levels of building activities. The chal- Tenge for these utilities lies in a reduced demand per connection. With growing numbers of connections, fixed casts increase while revenues do not necessarily rise ro the same extent. In such a situation, utilities have to increase water ates to cover the higher costs ‘SOCIAL IMPACTS OF CONTINUOUS PRICE INCREASES ‘A continuous increase of water rates may become problematic from another point of view. Empirical WATER WORLOWIDE | 1963 + JOURNAL AWA | JANUARY I0H6 2Tstudies show thar the price elasticity of water demand varies significantly among customer groups. Single fi pile options to save water in times of increasing prices For example, water-efficient bathroom and kitchen taps, rainwater utilization systems, wells for internal nily homes and commercial customers have mult: supply, or closed water eyeles can help reduce exter nal water demand, Consequently, customers who are not able to respond to rate increases will have a continuously rising propor- tion in financing the water supply system. For this rea son, pricing models that neglect the actual cost struc- ture by charging very low fixed charges and high prices per cubic meter may lead to utilities that are vulnerable to the downward spiral described here. SOLUTION: ADJUSTING PRICING MODELS. ‘The solution lies in adjusting the existing pricing model to reach a higher concordance of cost and reve: nue structure. As discussed earlier, the fived costs of water utilities can be as high as 80 Hence, a significant increase of fixed charges along with a fandamental decrease of the price per cubic meter is necessary In Germany, the common basis for caleula coral costs ing the fixed charge isthe size of the water meter. This creates a major problem when adjusting the pricing model, because in many regions around 95% of all customers use what is called a Qn 2.5 meter, implying a potential water delivery of 2.6 m /hous Single-Family homes, apartment buildings with 30 or more household, oF commercial customers can be connected ro the water supply system by using this specific meter size. This het- cerogeneity of different customers using the same meter will ereatea great burden for some and much relief for ‘other customers when increasing the fixed charge. A customer ina single-family home will have to pay signi- ficantly more compared with the current situation, whereas the opposite holds true for a customer in a ing. large apartment bus DESIGN OF A NEW PRICING MODEL For this reason, an adjustment of the pricing model has had to accompany a change of the calculation hase for the fixed charge. The new calculation base has to fulfill ewo requitements, Fest, co comply with the prin ciple of equivalence, it has ro represent a customer's probable use of the water supply system. Second, it has to allow the utility «certain degree of flexibility in designing the new pricing structure in such a way that financial burden and relief for different customer ‘groups are balanced during the transition phase. For domestic customers, the calculation base “number of dwelling units in a residential building” (Oelmann 8 Gendeies 20126} proved to be necessary and sufficient to date, This approach takes into account that a single family home does not use the same amoune of water as, an apartment building with 20 units; therefore, the nec ‘essary infrastructure to provide service is much smaller. Accordingly, it seems inappropriate for a sin= gle-family home to pay the same fixed charge asa res- dential building with 20 apartments. At the same time, because of economies of scale, the cost af pro viding the infrastructure for supplying the apartment FIGURE 1 caleulation bese Standing charge per residential building Iystration of digrossve pricing schome that uses the numberof dwelling units ina building as the ‘Linear =Digressive dm ix ih “ee at x ea ee st nacre a nro gna)building with water is not 20 times higher than for the single-family home. Following this loge, the pricing scheme uses fixed ‘charges but on a diminishing scale, labeled as “digres- sive” in Figure 1, which illustrates the basic idea of tsing che number of units in a residential building as the calculation base. ‘This new pricing scheme meets the two require: ments mentioned earlior. First, the levels of fixed ‘charges take into account that the costs for providing the necessary infrastructure are higher for larger build: ings, but ac dhe same time inerease digressively racher than linearly. Second, determining the structure of the fixed charges in accordance with the building struc~ ture of the service area allows utilities co keep finan- cial burdens and relief balanced. In contrast, nondomestic customers (eg, commercial ‘customers, municipal customers, hospitals) pay the same price per cubic meter as domestic customers, but ata different fixed rate. The fixed charge depends on the annual demand according to which customers are assigned to a corresponding demand class. “Through establishing demand classes for nondomestic ‘customers, the two requirements mentioned earlier are ‘met. On the one hand, customers can be billed a higher amount according tothe probable extent to which they use a utility’ infrastruceure This is of particular impor tance for nondomestic customets with highly heterogenic ‘demand scructuces. On the other hand the savings for ‘customers with a high water demand, induced by a sig- nificantly reduced price per cubie mete are compensated through adequate fixed charges, resulting in moderate financial burden and relief CONCLUSION As deserihed in this article, ane of the key challenges for water utilities in adjusting pricing models thereby reaching « higher concordance of cast and revenue structure, is co keep financial burdens and reliefs balanced. The consulrancy company MOcons, which is owned by two of the authors, has supported German uailities in more than 25 supply regions in adapting theie pricing modelss one of the company’s key discoveries is the fact that every area has its own demand structure In Germany there is simply no blueprint 10 be used for a utility wanting to adjust is pricing model. Using the same prices in two different service areas will gener ate fundamentally different results with regard to finan cial burden and relief of individual customer groups. Adjusting pricing models to a changing environment ‘of decreasing demand is not an easy task, but definitely fan urgent one for many utilities im Germany. Cost cav= erage is a fundamental necessity for any economic activity—water included. A positive outgrowth of these rate-restructuring processes is that further price increases in a scenario of already high prices per eubie meter of water will eventually strengthen the incentives for customers to save water. The discussion of a lack of alignment between cost and revenue structures is by no means restricted to German utilities, Although general conditions for pricing warer might differ from country to country, the pricing structure ‘mismatch in countries with falling consumption will be challenging and a story to watch in the near furure. Mark Oclmann i. professor of water and energy ‘economies at Hochschule Rubr-West (University of Applied Sciences) and director of the Enorgy and Water “Management program, Mellnghofer Strasse $5, Bldg 35, 45475 Muclhein are der Rubr, Germanys mark. ochmann@hs-rubrwestde, He isa managing partner of ‘MOcone and has been involved inthe development of new water pricing models for German water wlites for neatly 10 years. Oclmairn eared a PED i economics fron the University of Cologne, Germany Christoph Czichy isa managing partner of MOcons sind ta research assistant atthe company. Norbert ‘Jardin is head of the Planning Deparement at Rubreerband, «omproft water ntility that is responsible for water mansgenene within the catchment area ofthe River Rub, Esse, Germany. Paul D. Reiter (column coordinator to whom correspondence may be addressed) is president of ReiterIWS Ltd. aed is« visiting professor at Nia University of Architecture and Technology in China. He cat be contacted at ReiterIWS@ gmail.com. 8.0024 Trepp. 4Rfawwa 20 REFERENCES [EW (German Aetciton of Water and Every Induties, 208, Wiaesoraton im Uberbck won tdowdaintarnet ti 2578 ‘S0SSHCBECZSERCIEOSCBAR/SHaesserfkton 2-20 508496temichotaoBereeh®zOMsia0205 po (accoscod November 08) ‘Winschots- una Verlogsgsotachat Gas urd Wassar mb, Bonn. ‘clan M8 Genie, , 2012, Auf dam Weg au ener neuen us Sch int Waeeereserger, ang und Datergenerierng. gf Wassor/Abnassor 587-8E2. ‘Gelman, M & Genis, , 2012, Au dam Weg au ener neuen Tarimodel in ger deutschen Vlsservotsrgung Tol: Medel und Unsetzung. gut Wassr|Abwasse 1538956. KU (Astociton of Local Uisias 2018. Wesssrreze und — gobliven-Foktochack VKU-Braschre, Brin, risks 8: Kort, A, 2007. Auswirkangendemerafshor Entwictungon au io Weeserersorgung,Enegia/Woesr Prov 1030. [WATER WORLOWIDE | 1964 + JOURNAL AWA | JANUARY 2EN6 23__Tech cl Senceeee ‘ANDREW CHASTAIN-HOWLEY. JOLYNIN REYNOLDS, AND PAM KENEL & Outsmarting Costly Water-Loss Culprits he continuing water crisis in California, drought in the western United States and (Canada, and water main breaks and flood- ing across North America all emphasize the need for effective water distribution system manage: iment ro achieve system resilieney—fiscal soundness, asset health, and sustainable, flexible operations that ‘can respond to system shocks and changing regula tions. Water utilities of all sizes are turning to smart analytics—data analyties that enable users to make better-informed decisions—to visualize their systems, identify real and apparent losses, and vastly improve data as well as operations management. ‘THE ADVENT OF SMART ANALYTICS ‘Smart analytics is « powerful cool that enables system visualization, improves and automates data collection and reporting, and provides more accusate analysis of metered dats, More utilities and communities are employing smart rechnologies, such as advanced meter: ing infrasteucture (AMI) and high-speed data networks, that increase the quality of data and the speed at whieh (o/iofs 71175) © system communications occu. Bur even utilities that employ mobile or manal meter-reading methods can benefit from smart analytics, WATER-LOSS REDUCTION Regardless of the data source, a smatt-analyties plat form helps users eliminate information silos across a system-from treatment plant operations to diseribu sion operations, billing, customer service, and manage- ment, Use of smart water analytes helps utilities val date and integrate data, offers a comprehensive view of their systems and supports strategic decision-making if utilities use the information gainfully. In the ease of waterloss reduction, utilities ean apply smart analytics co theit own data to © conduct detailed cost-benefit analyses throughout the organization, + generate district-level leak visualization and targeting, * improve customer billing and metering, and + improve analysis of system infrastructure degradation.Retail metering systems degrade overtime. The auto: mated analyses produced by the integrated analytics typi cally recalculate monthly (although the time-step could vary] and provide inforn individual meters. Driving this process are uilityspecific test results and knowledge gleaned from the billing sys- tem regarding age and volume of water that has passed through a spectie meter. A unique degradation calcula tion is included in the analytics engine t allow more accurate representation of the failure characteristics. This calculation is important because it helps a utility decide whether and when 10 repair or replace its meters. Usilties have much to gain from improved data man. agement. Becoming smart about mitigating costly waterloss culprits begins with understanding and vali dating data. Reporsing and storing the right data is par amount and requires a utility ta establish and adhere to best-practice protocols for collecting data, as well as to ‘understand how to simplify and use that information. Data management and analyties help utilities target per formance and equipment-improvement programs across departments and operations. Ultimately, this informa: sion leads to berter planning and forward-thinking capi tal investment decisions, All of these benefits lead to better water resource management. sation on the risk of failure for DISCOVERING THE KEYS TO REDUCED WATER AND REVENUE LOSS ‘Smart use of daca analyties ean help utilities capture a timely return on investment, as exemplified by the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority (FKAA). FKAMS 2014 Water and Revenue Loss Management Plan placed data management at the center of its mitiga on strategy, This included more accurate spatial ep. resentation of water loss issues such as the risk of meter degradation and failure and where to target Teakage-detection operations. With a daily average demand of 17.4 mil gal, FKAA provides potable warer ro the entice Florida Keys. The service population of approximately 80,000 in Monroe County, Fla., doubles during the peak season. FKAA transports potable water to the Keys via @ 180-mi transmission pipeline and 690 mi. oF additional pipeline that delivers water to each customer. High pressure (250 tbfie2, maximum) is required to transport the potable water over long diseanees. FKAA has about [50,000 meters: 10,000 AMI meters that automatically teansmit data ¢o collectors up to every 15 min, 40,000 meters that are read monthly using a drive-by system, and a small number of manually read meters FKAA worked with Black & Veatch to develop its 2014 plan, harnessing, che company’s analytics engine! to evaluate areas of water loss and revenie, as wel as for system enhancement previously unexplored optios by FKAA. Detailed analytics and best practices for seducing water loss constituted the core of the plan, ‘Aralylesholp water utiles manage water meter data and prodt Combined with geospatial mapping, asics visually convey the statue of nvidia water meters arose a enti ot. lowing [Meters with an slovatd ik offal re shown ine n00 tayo ack vote oz raplacement programs Which yielded baselines and recommendations for future action to reduce identified water loss ‘Ongoing implementation includes monthly updating ‘of system input volumes and hilled meter data in dis crete portions of the system. The analyties engine auto. matically analyzes and updates water losses in pre- in the distribution system. Targeted actively reduces water losses in the defined arcas wit leakage detectio prioritized areas. [As parc of the plan, FKAA conducted a water audit to understand system losses and recovery path: ways. The audit revealed that the utility was losing approximately $2.6 million/year because of leaking, ‘Applestion of ear analytics in the Foi Keys axel how sccountng resulting insignificant savings. Detailed analysand best practices for eduting water loss constituted the core of the oda Keys Aqueduet Authority's 2014 Water and Revenue Loss Management Pan which yielded baselines and recommendations for future action o reduce Matied wate loss. Poo cures ik an THON TAU | 106 + JOURNAL AWWA | JANUARY 2018 25infrastructure, meter inaccuracies, unauthorized consumption, and system data-handling errors The recommended management modifications would enable FKAA to recover about 45% of its lost revenues and water savings, result ing in $1.2 million saved annually. By ing in these management modifications to reduce water and revenue losses, FKAA would reduce water losses from approximately 72 to 40 gal per connection per day. ‘CONCLUSION ‘Through application of smare analytics, utilities ean Improve the data used to calibrate water-loss aceount= ing, resulting in significant savings as demonstrated by FKAA, Better system management practices translate #0 sustainable functions—an essential mode of operation in the current taxing operational environment, ENDNOTE VASSETSGOM lack Vc, Kanai Kan Andrew Chastain-Howley (10 whom correspondence may be addressed) is a director with Black & Veatch, 1300 Summit Ave., Ste. 400, Fort Worth, TX 76102 USA; Chastain-bowleya@bv.com. He specializes in water lose reduction and water demand management, and bas 24 years of experience in the field of water loss control and water conservation. Chastain-Howley received his BSe degree from St. Andrews University St. Andrews, Scotland, and bis MSe degree from Camborne School of Mines, Redruth, England. He bas worked ‘across North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Australia for numerous government agencies and private entities i reducing their water losses. Jolynn Reynolds is the manager of Compliance and Planing at the Florida Keys Aqueduct Autority in Key West, la, Pam Kenel is ¢ solution lead for Smart Integrated Infrastructure for Black & Veatch, with a focus on water resources ard planing, She is based in the Washington, D.C., metro area, Trapt cl on/ 10.542 2016108025 oe Hungerford & Terry...An innovative leader AAS As still setting the standards in water treatment since 1909 ethics that only an employee owned ‘company can provide = Filtration systems to remove iron, manganese, arsenic, and radium High efficiency ion exchange systems to remove nitrates, perchlorate, ‘chrome-6, color, and hardness ~ Condensate polishers Forced draft and vacuum degasitiers = Complete demineralizers New *Plug-8-Play’, law cost, pre-engineered fitration systems HA&qT builds water treatment systems that work flawlessly and last a lifetime. For treatment suggestions, design assistance, sample specifications, typical designs, lab analysis, ‘r pilot testing contact: Hungerford & Terry, Inc. 226 Atlantic Avenue, Clayton, NJ 08312 www.hungerfordterry.com + sales@hungerfordterry.com + P; 856-881-3200 + F: 856-081-0859Peopl in the ARE eee EEE EEE eee The Society of Women Ensners (SE) ard daclye ry eto of oper “mnater asm County Publi Uy Distt PUD) No.1 Sheleon Wash) withits Emerging Leader award fore pact on SWE ad te copeering communiyThe nerd ecopnved Gry for er encrosiy ad tai a her pub I prvatesand professional pees Ivf edacang he pbc aout wae fear cones From nal 100 romina tons only To were selected forthe bono tons wth more han 3000 employes srmanaton eleted forts swan einen ete sgt on stern aod orrecnloy poston, demonsetes icin and personal ommendations trom nde pcs. Gray heen th Mason Coun DUD Nov sine 2008 set from a small ‘The Water and Wastewater Equipment Manufacturers Association (WWEMA) named Bill Decker, vice-president and gen. eral manager of the Equipment and Services Group at Aqua-Aerobic Systems, as recipient of the 2015 James C. Morriss Member Achievement award. The award is presented each year to a WWEMA member for significant contributions to the mission of the association and to the benefit of the water and wastewater industry. Decker was recognized for his outstanding service ro WWEMA through- out the year, including his contributions as vice-chairman of its Marketing & Member Services Committee, serving on its Legislative & Regulatory Committee and its Investment Committee, and his efforts as a founding member of the Industrial Council. In October 2015 the National Water Research Institute hosted its Clarke Prize Conference in Huntington Beach, Calif, which included presentations by representa tives from water agencies, universities, eg latory agencies, and consulting firms. “W. for Everything and the Transformative ‘Technologies co Improve Water Sastainabiligy” was delivered by Clarke Prize recipient John 6. Crittenden, director of the Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems and Hightower Chaie and GRA Eminent Scholar in Environmental ‘Technologies in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta) REELS (CHM has named Pater Niool as president of its warer husiness, Nicol succeeds Gt Melntyre, who is overseeing all global busi ness operations, serving as president of Global Business Groups. In his new role, Nicol is responsible for all water activities within CHM. He previously served as CH2M's global water business development and client sector director, in which he was primarily responsible for leading and grow. ing CH2M's international warer business and for leading the focus on public-private partnerships. With more than 35 years of experience, all spent at CH2M, Nicol has played roles in numerous water and waste water projects in Canada and around the ‘world and is involved in numerous industry and advocacy organizations Grundfos Pumps Corp. has appointed Anthony Sellers as vice-president of finance for the company’s Americas region. He will be responsible forall financial activities for [North and South America. Sellers has held finance and accounting positions in various large corporations, inchiding Pentair. He ‘most recently served as vice-president and chief financial officer of finance at Segwerk North America. Azia Ahmed has joined Gannett Fleming as 4 senior project manager based in the Richmond, Va., office. As a key member of the water/wastewater practice, he is responsible for leading integrated teams to plan, desiga, and construct municipal facilites in the region. He joins the Gannett Fleming team from Phoenix, Ariz. With over 18 years of experience in water and wastewater engineering, Ahmed is a presenter and published author on che topic of water and wastewater system planning, design, and optimization. He PEOPLE WHE NEWS | 1081 + JOURNALAMWA | JANUARY 201627served as vice-president of AWWA'S Climate Change Committee and contribut: ed co the update of AWWA’s Manual MSO, Water Resources Plansiing. He has heen a contributor to Journal AWWA on climate change and has presented topics at state and national conferences ranging from water and wastewater infrastructure plan= ning to drinking water process and design. 4. Stoven Paquette has been appointed director of the water practice for the US region of WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff, In his new position, he will be responsible for managing the operations of the firm’s ‘water practice, which provides a range of water and wastewater engineering services ‘to municipalities, government agencies, and utility companies. He will be based in New York City, N.Y. Paquette has 30 years ‘of senior management experience at major consulting engineering organizations. Before joining WSP I Parsons Brinckerhoff, he was national sales manager ac a global infrastrucrure engineering company, where he also served as national water and wastewater business-line leader. He founded and served as president of Groundwater Technology Gavernment Servives, a national firm providing water and wastewater consulting services to government client. Susan Gilbert has joined Carollo Engineers a8 a senior vice-president. She will help implement Carollo’s strategie plan, ‘working with clients across the country to implement, procure, and execute solutions to water needs. As a professional engineer with more than 30 years of water engineering expertise, Gilbert has extensive experience with alternative delivery for cer utilities, regulatory agencies, water system modeling, master planning, infrastructure design, and water swarer and wastew v . Ginert Continualy trusted with protecting projects all over the word from n prevention also extends tothe water and wastewater Industie. Leaders in Corrosion Prevention call 281-821-3385 visit: www.densona.com ‘e-mail: info@densona.comBuchart Horn has promoted W. Scott Loeteher to associate vice-president of the firm’s architectural division. He will be responsible for developing and carrying ‘out a strategy for growing and demon strating the expertise af the division. Loereher, who joined Buchart Horn in 1995, has most recently served the com- pany in the role of principal and director ‘of design. In thar capacity, he was instrw mental in working with design principals to ensure that every project would adhere to the firm’s design philosophy. Fluid Corporation Systems (FCS) has. named Graham Mattison as its new North American technology manager for its line ‘of wireless remote monitoring products. In this le, Mattison will manage all aspects of pre- and post-sale technology ‘support for customers in the United States and Canada, FCS created the position in response to a grawing demand for its wireless utility monitoring products, which help utilities and property managers reduce nonrevenue water and conserve resources, Mattison joined FCS in 2013 as national sales manager to introduce the new line of utility resource monitoring equipment. Before that, he served in a number of technical sales management positions for manufacturers of utility monitoring hardware and software technologies ‘The members of the Water and Wastewater Equipment Manufacturers Association (WWEMA) has elected new officers for 2016: * Chair Tammy Bernier, president, Dupecon Corp. + Chair-Elect Mark Turpin, vice- president and chief markering officer, Parkson Corp. * Vice-Chair Thacher Wort president, Schreiber LLC * Treasurer John Dyson, commercialization manager, De Nora Water Technologies + Immediate Past Chair Frank Rebor, president, Smith & Loveless Ine. ‘Thrve members have been newly elected to the 2016 hoard of disectors: © John Collins, vice-president of sales and hie operating officer, JOM Industries ‘+ Marwan Nesicolaci, senior vice- president of global sales, De Nora ‘Water Technologies {day Sivigny, produci'markering manages, Flowserve Corp. In addition, WWEMA membership has re-elected Bill Decker, vice-president and general manager of the Equipment and Services Group at Aqua-Aerobie Systems, and Mike Dimitriou, president of WRT, to serve second terms on the board, The membership also has confirmed two mem: bers who were appointed in 2015 to serve ‘unfulfilled germs on the hoard: TR Gregg, director of business development and marketing at Huber Technologies, and Nachen Myers, vice-president of munici pal sales at SUEZ Environnement. Carus Group announced the promotion of Dave Kuzy, who had served as its president and chief operating officer, o the position of chief executive officer (CEO). Effective Jan 1, 2016, Kuzy succeeds Inga Carus as CEO of the 100-year-old company. Carus will con tinue to serve as the company’s chain, a posi tion she has held since 2013, She has been swith Carus Group for 23 years, the last 10, as CEO, Carus says she has been planning this transition for some time, and will focus more attention on growth initiatives for Carus as well as on personal endeavors, Kuzy joined Carus Group with more than 25 years of leadership experience in opera- tions, sales, marketing, produet and business ‘management, and strategie planning. He most recently worked for Albemarle Corp. as vice-president, efinery catalyst. Kuzy held leadership positions at Engelhard Corp. (now BASE), Mallinckrodt Specialty Chemical Co., and Goodyear Tite and Rubber Co, Joseph T.Pershin, Englewood, Colo. Lawrence A. Youell, Avon, Ills Life Member Award 2013; Silver Water Drop Award 2013 Information in the People in the News section is published sbout and for AWWA marbars. Loorener 2»\. | SUSTAINABLE American Water Works | Water Management Conference Association Ay\ New England The American Water Works Association invites you to attend the Sustainable Water Management Conference The 2016 Sustainable Water Management Conference brings together water settr organizations to develop relevant, current sessions tha wate professionals need tobe efcient now, Sustainable water management encompasses @ multe of ntereated tops and requires abroad and incusve approach Workshops March7 Poster Session and Networking Reception March 8 Technical Program March 8-10 I'm coming to Sustainable to learn about. To view the full agenda and ‘a Economic aproah to managing your water calenges workshop descriptions, go to Sareea ere a Acting efectvey nthe ae uncertainty ‘a Iregtation of water esurces and planning across al scars ‘v0WAwelemesthe US Endowment for Forestry nd a Tons and approaches for advancing source water protection Communities, the Water Research Foundation an the Alan fr Water ficiency a5 return echnical Workshops cosponsors, withthe US. Environmental Potion ‘Workshops provide in-depth, hands-on comprehensive eaming opportunites. Agency as conference partner. New his er, he Worksop regstratons require a separate ee Associaton of State Drinking Water Administrators ion ieee ine. -MONO01~Communicating Watershed Ecosystem Services Using Collaborative Learning and Mental This event provide you vaiable networking Models ree ee == Is Sle * Be : onsei eve —— ery Ge sty {ery—Town of Cary Groensborocity of Greensboro, OWASA Orange Water end Sewer ‘ethonty, BWC Fayetorile Publ Works Commlanin sities colcted between 18 and 26% of her tal etal venue fom ess than 1% of ‘hale customors nies oar 209 (ly 202 sane 2013) can target theie analysis and com munication efforts to just a few dozen customers in order to gain significane insight into a large share ‘of their customers and operations. Figure 4 is a snapshot of a dash: hoard af top 10 nonresidential cus- comers ereated for one of the utili- ties, with data for one specific customer displayed. This particular customer has 12 meters, and the dashboard tracks the monthly usage and billed amouns for each meter ‘over the past two years. It also sums the total revenue from base and val umecrie charges and displays the maximum and average monthly usage for each meter. Even without knowing the business ofthis particu- lar nonresidential customer, mitch can be learned by looking at the dashboard, The data show that there was some significant peak shaving between the summer of 2011 and 2012. vatility could use an analysis Tike this to follow up with the cus tomer to learn whether the summer: time peak shaving was in response 0 weather conditions or whether the customer invested in efficient cech- nology or changed its business oper ations in a way that will ikely affect furure peak demands. Additionally, meter #73449722 (green) experi enced an abnormal one-time increase in water use in August 2012, Ifa utility tracks this information on a regular basis it could help this evs omer determine whether there was a leak. For example, if this dash board were tracked on a monthly basis, the utility might also see that meter #7279736 (red) experienced an abnormal peak in June 2013. It would be worth following up to find out whether this is a sustained change or is expected ro only be tem= porary. IFtemporary the utility could ask the customer whether the change was intentional and how long the customer expects that higher demand to continue. Equally interesting would be significant deop-offs in one Plateauing customers. Of course, one-month anomalies are notnecessarily real and sustained change, and they are nor the kind of change that will either signifi- cantly inerease or decrease the amount of water the utility sells ‘The research team next analyzed the hilling records to identify non- residential customers chat had sig- nificant and sustained change in rotal water use between 2009 and 2013 (a period that falls immedi- ately after a major drought in North Carolina and into the recov- ery phase of the Great Recession). ‘These customers stabilized their water use at the new level for many months, demonserating a new “plateau” of water use. To conduct this analysis, the authors developed an algorithm to detect significant and sustained changes in the 12-month running, averages of water use for ef omer, as shown in Figure 5. foun- ation was caleulated for each prem ise as the running average of their first 12 months of water use, marking the level of use inthe hefore period. ‘The final 36 months of water use were then used co calculate 24 differ- ent running averages. Each premise’s plateau was then calculated as the average of those final 24 running averages, marking a sustained level of h cus use inthe after period, Plateaus were caleulaced only ifthe final 24 runoing averages were relatively steady Nonresidential customers were identified a6 “up-plateau” custom: crs if they increased their average water use by at least 25% berween 2009 and 2013 and sustained the ‘This analysis helps detect real and sustained change in a customer's water use, With nonresidential cus: tomers, the change is most likely due to a structural change (enw ten ant, operational changes, renovation, ‘new equipment) eather than a behav ioral change, These changes can affect Although in most cases nonresidential water customers make up a small portion of the number of utility customer accounts, their demand on water resources is significant. new average for at least 36 months at the end, In other words, the pla teau for the customers was at least 25% greater than the foundation, as displayed in Figure 5. This increase may he due sa an increase in pro: duction or a change in ownership. Conversely, nonresidential custom. ers were identified as *down-pla teau” customers if they decreased their average water use by at least 25% and maintained thar new pla- teau at the end, The sustained drop in use could perhaps be due to a decrease in production or an invest iment in water efficiency future water use and revenue projections. In the case of OWASA, this methodology was used to specifi cally identify more than 700 plateau ing commercial customers. These cus: somers were nearly equally split becween up-plateau and down-plateau ceastomers, as shown in Figure 6. Uleimarely, the impact of an up-plateau or down-plaveau customer con the utiley’s water resources and revenues depends on the sarting and ending points ofthat customer’ water use, OWASAS 321 down-plateau cus: tomers had nearly ewice the impact on declining demand compared with the eee FIGURE 4 Screenshot of a “top ten” dashboerd oar —_— Bee ee alae ae Lith ead 1004 + JOURNAL AWWA | JANUARY 016 57impact the 390 up-plateaw customers of che 390 up-plateau customers used had on inereasing demand. In other in increased warer use, as shown in words, although there were 69 fewer Figure 7. In total, the up-plateau cus down-plateau customers than up- comers used 7.5 mil gal less per year plateau customers, theit total sus- than che down-plateau customers, tained decreases in water use were resulting ina significant net decline early twice the roral sustained in water use (and therefore reve- reases in water use oftheiecountes nes) among OWASN's nonresiden- parts In fact, the six largest down- tial customers. plateau customers at OWASA con- Taken across a utility, hese trends served almost as much water as all are important and may represent a FIGURE 5 Determining *plateauing” customers from water use recards i2mont nnn avrages ata, average ant 2a months of running averages = Founda, average of rst fz months Benoit Up-Patans Example of Dow Plateau TEST INDETONAST BNET WHO SM ‘A foundation” average was caculsted from customer ft 12 months of water us, ‘hating tet Belore period The inal 36 manne of water Use oawean 2009 snd 20) ‘ore hn aed act rnning averages tat showed wha customers wre FIGURE 6 Number of nonresidential customers with significant and sustained changes in use between 2009 and 2013 SSeS ERa] ase i ll ore nonresidential customers increased water se than decreased. large-scale response to a utility pol iey oF price, Ie would be useful for a utility to contact the biggest new plateau customers to understand the reasons behind the changing de mands and determine whether a change in price ar policy is war ranted, Even without directly con- ‘acting a representative of these non- residential customers, a utility could use readily available secondary daca 10 understand the types of customers thac are plateauing, For example, a utility ean profile those customers by incorporating tax parcel data to identify the age, size, ownership changes, and other defining charac teristics of the plateauing nonresi- dential customers, [Mining water use data from billing records can ensure metor 0 for nonresidential customers. Billing, records can be used to make sure that customers are being billed appropri ately, particularly if rates vary by meter size. Because the meter size of nonresidential customers varies 50 ‘much, an annual review of dental customers’ hilling eecords can be used to track the average and ‘maximum water ase of each meter against its potential. Each meter size is ated to have a mawimum flow rate. For example, AWWA’ Mo Water Meters—Selection, Installation, Testing and Maintenance displays hata I-in, meter is rated for a max imum flow of $0 gpm, while a 2-in meter’s maximum flow rate is 160 gpm (AWWA 2012), Usilties can compare the flow rate through nonresidential meters by plocting all of their meters of a par ticular size on a graph and displaying, each meter average monthly use and ‘maximum monthly use throughout 2 year. This graph would then identify ‘outliers in terms of meters that have abnormally high flow rates in com parison with other meters ofthe same size. For example, in Figure 8, which displays the average and maximum ‘monthly warer use in all-in. meters at one utility, three meters stand out as having much higher water use (hus flow rate) than the other Linmeters. Having identi Vidual meters, che utility could then smaller meter sizes chan what the underused for three years in a row. sdtheseindi- erroneously charging rates for were four meters that appeared to he chock to see whether the meters were customer is actually wsing, Potentially the oversized meters may sized inappropriately for the demand Although they are difficult o see not be registering all of the water levels of those customers, or whether in Figure 8, oversized meters are an that flows theough them. the meter sizes were recorded inac- issue at this particular utility as wel ccurately in the billing software. Both After excluding zero-consumption CONCLUSIONS AND problems present different challenges meters, it was noted that 38 meters RECOMMENDATIONS. and potential lost revenues for the at this utility may he oversized. Fach This article is not meant ro recount utility. Undersized water meters are of the 38 meters used hetween I and every metric that can be tracked and likely ¢o wear out more quickly asa 100 gpm throughout the year: Ina used on noneesidential customers. result ofthe increased flow rate, and single year, this could likely mean Previous reports (Boyle et al. 2011, they may nor be recording water that a business sar empty or a pro- _ Viekers et al. 2013) have introduced flows accurately over time. Inaccu- cess was unused. However, extending _metries such as peaking ratios and rate records in the hilling software the analysis to multiple years ean percent revenue from base charges may result in los revenues ifthe util- identify chronically underused that are just as insightful ro track for ity isundercharging the customer by meters. In ehis particular utility there nonresidential customers as for FIGURE 7 Cumulative water use changes of plateauing customers ‘changes in Annual Average Vater Use—mi gal ‘customers who doun-plaeaued 6d soo. much gester degre than these who up-plateaued, FIGURE 8 Average use versus meximum use by 1-in, meters to aid in meter right-sizing a imum volume poesibe ‘Maximam Monn Tota Vtune—1,000 ge! 2 25 2 35 1 as 3 ‘Average Monthy Tol Volume—1,000 gal TIGER ETAL | 181 = JOURNAL AWWA | JANUARY 2016 58residential customers. Further, this report is nar meant co benchmark water use and revenue of the stud= ied utilities. The purpose of these findings is to illustrate how tracking nonresidential customers! water use ‘useful for utilities in improving data accuracy and categorization Although it is challenging to gen cralize nonresidential customers, this article shows that there is valve in tracking the water use and revenue This analysis helps detect real and sustained change in a customer's water use, and these changes can affect future water use and revenue projections individually overtime, using key met- rics, can contribute significantly toward water resource management and financial planning, and how to subelassify nonresidential customers fo target outreach and planning cfforts. Finance directors and water resource planners can use this type of analysis to understand erends in cus tomer water use and response to price and nonprice conservation signal. ‘This understanding can assist in fore- casting revenue and resources. Fur- thermore, the analysis used in this study could bea service thatthe util ity provides to its key accounts. By erecting anomalies or simply giving month-by-month comparisons for their meters, a usiity’ nonresidential ‘customers cam better understand their fown water use. They may see the ut as more of a partner with whom they can work on theit warer demands, rather than as a monopoly water provider that simply charges them for a resource that is vital for their business success. Customer ser- vice representatives can form rela tionships with the utiiey’s largest accounts and work alongside them as they plan co make significant changes in operations that will affect their Additionally this analysis is useful for utilities in managing ther billing database. Running business incelli= gence on billing records ean help ensure that nonresidential customers are billed accurately. These metrics and method of analysis ean also be trends of nonresidential customers to help forecast customer behavior ‘This type of analysis ean help utili- ties improve pricing schemes and business practices better align with water use trends and utility objec tives for financial stability and cus [ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mary Tiger recently joined the Orange Water and Sewer Authority as sstainability manager. Previously she served as the chief operating officer ofthe Environmental Finance Center ai The Univesity of North Carolina and asthe utility conservation coondinatr for Loveland Water and Power in Colorso. With more than 10 years of experience in the water industry, the bas led multiple applied research projects om ater conterostion strategies, pricing, and sustainability, Se ca be reached at the Orange Water and Sewer ‘Authority 400 Jones Ferry Road, Carrboro, NC 27510 USA; smtiger@owssa.rg. Christine Boyle isthe founder and president of Valor Water Amalytis Inc, Sen Franceca, Calif. Shadi Esa senior project director a the Envisormental Fnance Centr at The University of North Carolina «a Chapel Hil Jeffrey Hughes is director, EFC at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Renée Jutras isthe lead data analystlengineer at Valor Water Analytics be, San Francisco, Calif elon 59422016 108.0020 REFERENCES AUNWA 2012}. Manual of Water ‘Suppl Pracias, M6. Water Motors— Selection fasta, Testing and Maitonance AWB, Denver Bove, Est, S: Tiger, MW: & Hughes, “4X, 2007 Mining Weter Big D3 Intrm Poe anéCommuneston ‘Swategies ourne AWA, S188 Economie Developmen liance ot Fayette & Curberlan Coun, North Corona 205 Indusrias Suman. \worthencalianes conindusties! (accessed March 2018, Envicnmanta Finance Contr at The ‘Universi of North Carlin ad he Nort Carling Loague of Mancpaites, 2118 Water & Wastewater tos and Rate Structures in North Carona. ws ele sog une odulstesinafesegune ‘eduflegNCLM_EFC_Annol Rates_ Report 206 pf (accessed March 2816) ‘Greensboro Partmershi, 2018. Community Profle. wvevgreonsbocoperership comleconome-devalmentat ‘amt acsesse0 March 2015, Maupin. MA; Kenny, J: Hutson, SS. Lovelace, JK: Baber NL: Linsey, KS. 2014. Emote Use of Water ne Und States in 2010 Cris 1605 US Geclogical Survey, Reston Vo i oiorgiostsxertas, Moralas, NA. Hoaney P04. ‘lssficston, Beneherarkng, ane Hydreacenemic Madoing ot Noncesicental Water User, Jounal AWWA 06:25, di r/105842jovra.204 106 010, ‘range County Economie Davalaprens, 2015. ‘range County Community Profi. warn ‘gownorangene coniug-contont ‘pleds/011/10Comerarty tia ‘eb accesses Moreh 8) Vickers, A; Tiger MW & Esk, 2019.4 ‘uid Customer WaarUseIacators for Conseradon and Financia Planning. sunt Dene Wortington, AC, 201 Commercialand Industrial Water Demand Estimation Theoretical and Methodological Guiatns fo: Appi Ecos esearch. Gin Unversity, Soutoon, Oi, Ausrainfrastructure/finance AWWA ASSET MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE Committee Report: Business Practices to Help Utilities Better Manage Assets lesshanlatering portrait f the water stor was revealed in AMUWHS 2015 Sate ofthe Water Industry Report The report Showed thatthe helth ofthe sector decid sighly when omparcd with 2014 results. Additionally the soundnes ofthe is expected to devine forthe next ive years. Why the 12015 report desis major concers, mos of which can be traced back ro key business practcs. TWADORESS GAPE FOUND INA Advancements in see nanagerct focus on improvement. By implement ing asst management busines practices described inthis article, wis 2015 AWWA STUDY, UTILITIES can successfully address the concerns cited in the 2015 State of the Water CAN USE BEST PRACTICES, Industry Repore as well as uncover costelfective ways to address asset exavtes, ano resounces ‘ten and ec Bes mane nur ea aca TOHELP IMPROVE THER ASSET er sem, Ue cn ake unique approach and focs on improving MANAGEMENT STRATEGES. diferent practices to maintain the health and soundness of thelr opera tion-there is ao single solution ora one-sizesitvall appeoach that applies downward so THE CURRENT STATE OF ASSET MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AN summary of asset management practices was presented in one report dlescribed existing practices and future plans of US and Canadian water utilities with respect co chose practices cover xilty operations. The report AWWH ASSET MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE | 986% = JOURNAL AWWA | JANUARY 3088 61showed that the main drivers for IDENTIFYING SERVICE LEVELS. improved asset management prac- ‘The core mission of utilities isco tices were the need to upgrade, provide quality levels of service repair and replace aging infrastrue-acceprable ro their customers. Utili- ture, as well as the ability to better tes new to advanced asset manage determine capital investments, effec- ment are not often unsure about tive maintenance strategies, and how ro establish service-level goals, budgets (Bernstein 2013), but rather are ensure about whieh The core mission of utilities is to provide quality levels of service acceptable to their customers. Members of the AWWA Asset goals should be set and measured. Management Committee were asked Service levels typically include tech to rate the most important business nical service levels, such as ma practices uriliies could adope. They break rates, the amount and dura selected the following: identifying tion of unplanned interruptions, and levels of service; consideration and customer service levels that include ‘management of assct risks; condition call-hold simes and the number of assessment for evaluating an asset's camplaines received. Service-level remaining useful life;development of goals for health and safety (e.g. strategic asset management plans; number of accidents) and che envi investment decision-making or busi-_ ronment (eg. greenhouse gas emis. ness cases that consider environmen- sions) are also ineluded for a more |, and financial costs and balanced approach, ind asset replacement plan- According to research (NWC ning. The following sections describe 2014, Ofwar 2010), utilities in examples of the progress made in England and Australia have heen cach of these areas. required to monitor their perfor- mance using multiple service levels for many years. An annual report in rn Canada also captured information ) ‘on the performance of utilities an a variety of measures [AECOM 2013). In the United States, the QualServe benchmarking report compiled util ‘ty performance data on many of the same measures (AWWA 2014). The Albuquerque (N.M.) Water Author- ity's performance plan provides a ood example of how performance data were used asa guide to opera tional performance improvement (the cover of the plan is pictured on this page). Although there are other hs utilities that have similar approaches, = the eurrent state of setting and mea ‘Aaity can sat servietevel goals suring service-level standards in the ‘and report ite performance annually North American water utility sector tothe public remains almost enteely voluntary. A report establishing key perfor mance goals for disribucion systems showed that the most important goals of the project included the fol lowing: maintaining chlorine resi ual for water quality integrity, main taining pressure for hydraulic ‘integrity, and limicing the number of main leaks and breaks for infra structure integrity (Friedman et al 2011). Another report nored 13 pet= formance indicators for drinking water assets “that should he consid= ered as the bare minimum in devel oping an asset management pro gram" (Oxenford et al. 2012), The creation and use of service standards has improved performance and driven a better understanding aod support for utility operations within their respective communities. Since 2011, Toho Water Authority. (2014) in Kissimmee, Fla.,has reported quar tery service levels for water, waste- water and reclaimed water services to its board of supervisors in six key categories: infrastructure reliability, ‘organizational responsiveness, regula tory compliance, customer service, financial performance,and workforce initiatives, Each category has six to eight key performance indicators with an overall call-up indicator for the service-level category. Simple green, yellow and red graphics indicate areas in which improvements are needed. Another comprehensive approach t0 planning and monitoring performance ‘was created by San Francisco Public Uilties Commission (Calit) (SEPUC 2011). les Strategic Sustainability Performance on Goals and Objectives, Fiscal Year 2010-2011 report tracked hundreds of key perfor mance indicacors and covered six categories: customers, community, environment and natural resources, governance and management, infra- structure, and workplace. ‘THE ROLE OF RISK MANAGEMENT ‘According to the Water Research Foundation’s Asset Management Knowledge Portal, “risk manage- ‘ment isthe most importane concept related co the management of watertility assets.” The AWWA Asset Management Committee ranked “assessing the risk of asset failure” as one of the most important asset management topies. ‘The risk of failure as it relates to infraseructure assets is an integral part of asset management for high= performing utilities. Asset-based risks are typically defined in terms of like- ihood or probability of failure (related to the condition of the asset) and the consequence of a failure. Annual rsk costs can be quantitied for budgetary and life-cycle costing purposes hy multiplying monetized ‘consequence of failure estimates by the estimated annual probability that the failure will occur, A framework for risk management was described in the Australian/New Zealand Standard for Risk Management, Standard ASINZS 4360, which focused on the following: identifying risks, evaluating those risks, and con sidering risk mitigation or treatment options (SA. 1999). In ord to jus- tify mitigation, ie becomes helpful ro ‘quantity risk costs that can chen lead {0 business ease evaluations on the effectiveness of risk reductions, Many utilities focus their risk management efforts on water pipe, which is the largest proportion of net asset valve to the utility. The most cost-effective maintenance strategy for most distribution pipes is reactionary. Repair costs and social impacts associated with leaks and breaks are generally dwarfed by costly proactive approaches of physical condition assessment and pipeline replacement. This is nor the case for frequently breaking or higher-consequence pipes, such as larger-diameter distribution or ‘ansmission mains or pipes manu- factured using materials chat are more prone to catastrophic failures, One report compiled and analyzed costs associated with 30 large ameter pipes across North Amer- ica. After monetizing the various consequences, the report indicated the average failure costs were close fo $2 million with half of those Inspections con uncover preblems such 2 this pipe thet was out of aignment being societal costs (Gaewski & Blaha 2007), Tn Oregon, Porttand Water Bureaw's approach to risk management of pipes focuses on high-consequence crossings of major highways railroad lines, and pipes on bridgess the pho: tograph on this page isan example of how an above-ground road-crossing pipe that was out of alignment was ‘caught during an inspection, The esti mated average consequence of two previous failures, one under a major highway and the other on a bridge vera railroad line, was $2.5 million {Leighton 2014). As a result, condi tion assessment, valve exercising, and valve installation on those pipes became a priority for the Portland Water Bureau, ‘The Metropolitan Sewer District (MSD} of Greater Cincinnati (Ohio) was another utility that applied risk management across the organ ‘The intent of its effort was to cap. tute high risks in three categories: corporate, operational, and physical assers (IWA & WSAA 2012). MSD developed a risk register to track risks and risk mitigation efforts Additionally, MSD prioritized capi tal projeets and changed the fre quency of maintenance activities partly because of the risk to the util ity and its community USING CONDITION ASSESSMENT ‘TO IMPROVE DECISION-MAKING Assets fail in many ways. Armed with condition assessment knowl- edge, utilities can make better deci- sions about asset renewals or replacements, which in ura can save valuable financial resources that can then be allocated co address more critical needs. The approach by which condition assessment is used should be thoughe of as reducing the range of uncertainty in risk assess- ments, and helping identify factors affecting asset condition applied across a wider suite of like assets Utilities should consider ways to incorporate existing data (e.g, leak detection programs) into their deci sion-making processes for long-term replacement planning. Assessing the condition of water pipes can be challenging and poten tially expensive, Many utilities acknovrledge that replacing pipes in ood condition as part of a routine replacement program [on the basis of age alone} is not sustainable of prac- tical, Some utilities prefer an “assess and address” approach that deploys appropriate condition-assessment inspection tools to determine the like- Iihood of faire. This information is ce the remaining useful life, Once the assessment is then used to esti AWWH ASSET MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE | S86 = JOURNAL AWWA | JANUARY 3016 63‘By measuring the remalning wall tikness an educted delsion canbe made on whetha 10 replace the sot. completed, appropriate renewal options, such as repair, rehabilita tion, replacement, re-inspestion, oF no action, can be considered as part of am asset management plan, Some inspection tools are rela tively new ro che marker. Buc cere is po silver-bullet inspection tool that provides all the data needed ro estab- lish the remaining useful life of a pipe (Faber 2014). However, there are several tools that can target var- ‘ous pipe-material failure modes fe Teaks, gas pockets, cracks, broken reinforcing components, wall loss) an aid in managing the pipeline and help make defensible decisions. is confidence in the data hased on the resolution required. False positives and false negatives are a concern when using new technologies. Appro- priate piloc testing is vital and should he performed with data validation and a prior understanding of the sc entific principles employed when evaluating various technologies for condition assessment, Ultimately the desired outcome of a pipeline cond ton assessment project is to cost effectively mitigate risks associated swith potential failures and to under: stand when and where repairs and replacements of weak links in the system should occur. The risk of failure as it relates to infrastructure assets is an integral part of asset management for high-performing utilities. Improvements in technology are also making it possible, for example, for utilities to measure changes in pipe wall thickness as potential indica- tor for pipe corrosion failure (see the photogeaph on this page The key to using condition assess: ment for risk-based decision-making Funding condition assessment can also be a challenge. eis likely to be new addition so a utility’s budge, and budget review hoards may be unfa smiliar withthe technology and justi fication. However, several tilities have documented that they have been able to employ the assess-and-address approach for Sco 10% of capital replacement (Hunc ec al. 2014, Pure Technologies 2013). Additionally, several utilities have been able to use capital, as opposed to opera tional, budgets for pipeline-condition assessment and repair (Coghill eal 2014), Using this approach, projects are regarded as extending the useful life of assets, which previously may have had zero hook value on the basis of their age. ASSET MANAGEMENT PLANS ‘The AWWA Asser Management ‘Committee ranked the development ‘of asset management plans (AMPs) as ‘one ofthe most important asset man- gement topics because of its per ceived value in helping utilities ca ture knowledge and plan fucure efforts. Authors in one report described the business practice of the Portland Water Bureau in creating tactical AMPs and noted, “[AMPs] are hest efforts to create strategies, and quantify resources for future planning efforts (bringing all the departments together)” (Leighton & Letteney 2014). As a result, hundreds of ree ‘ommended strategies were developed for preventive and reactive mainte recommend actions, nance, repair, and replacement prac tices. As part of the initiative to develop AMPs, asset management staff provided guidance, tools, and training to AMP developers. A work- ing group of AMP leaders met monthly to share information and facilitate the education process, The Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (Laurel, Md.) also iden tified and added asset management strategies and investment needs 10 its annual budgeting process. les AMP included levels of service perfor- mance, business risks, and failure modes analysis (Vitagliano 2014). In Edmonton, Alta., Canada, EPCOR Utilities’ approach to AMPs w. create them at the enterprise level, the system! sset level, and the sub- asset level. EPCOR’s distribution- mains AMP included information on asset inventory, management of data,failure analysis, and replacement plans (Yanitski 2014) BUSINESS CASE ANALYSIS Making better capital investment decisions through business case evaluations is hecoming a key com- ponent for advanced asset manage- ment programs, particularly when the value of water infrastructure is underappreciated; the photograph ‘on this page is an example of how risk analysis helps in determining asset replacement, Within the water sector, best practices emphasize the ned for business cases. Guidelines for ‘optimized decision-making, which considered the life-cycle cost af the assets, as well as the benefits and ccosts of both qualitative and quan titative alternatives, were created by the Iuternational Infrastructure Management Manual 2001 Edition (NAMS 2001) and updated by sub- sequent iterations of the manval Qualitative and quantitative factors introduce the concept of evaluating more than just the economic consid= crations of what can he considered a triple-bortonvline approach of eval- uating the economic, environmenta and social project impacts. Multi-riteria scoring and a mone- tized risk-based approach are two approaches that have been used for business-ease evaluations within the sector. The Public Usilties (Ohio) (Campanella 2015) and the Portland Water Bureau (Leighton 2015) are examples of util ties with rigorous monetized risk-based olumbus Department of approaches. Meanwhile the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (N.Y.) and the City of Virginia Beach (Va) have both adopred sophisticated, multi-criteria scoring ap- proaches (Hyer 2015} The monetized risk-based ap proach includes assigning costs for financial as well as environmet and social consequences, and mul plying the consequences by the prob- ability of those failures to determine a risk cost. Risk costs for project alternatives of risk costs between unlike projets are then compared t0 ‘business case an be used to determine when anol asst should be repteced select the appropriate project to complete, A good source for under standing the specifies of the meth odology is the Portland Water Bureau Busine ‘ase Development Guidebook (Brainich 2010), While guidance exists on the approach, there ate no set values to use for social and environmental costs, leaving utilities responsible for developing and defending eheit cal culations. The process of assigning. monetary values can be challenging, mainly because the values may vary from community ta community. Nevertheless, the science behind monetizing triple-bottom-line factors is growing within the water industry and in most industries as a whole, As the practice grows, utilities are pub lishing theie work for others to ref: nereasing the ability for utili ties ro compare the costs and benefits ‘of potential projects and to gain a better understanding of what invest ments will bring greater value The multi-criteria approach includes identifying key project cri- teria and defining a range for each criterion (e.g. one to five). The pri mary advantage of a multi-riteria approach lies in is simplicity, allow ing for relative comparisons between project alternatives based on a num- ber of factors, Care must be taken when applying a multi-criteria approach methodology. If there are too many «riple-bowam-line criteria “65Example break rate forecast used with service level standarés FIGURE 1 to establish efecive useful nes of pipe assets brea te Baee¢ on ADP * Ero] | —Etroerecr ei noon neu Bo de gx & SBSERERRSGSba Ree Se: oe ‘considered, the weight of each crite rion may become diluted. Addition ally the ability to compare costs with non-monetary criteria is, by nature subjective and stops short of actualy monetizing the relative differences between alternatives Both approaches are key compo- nents of an asset management pro gram and, when applied appropri- ately, are essential tools chat support ‘consistent, transparent, and effective selection of capital projects EVALUATING AN ASSET'S USEFUL FE Another key practice of asset man- agement is determining the timing of replacing assets, which requires est rating an asset’ effective useful life (EUL). BULs can vary greatly because of many factors. One pipe say have an EUL of 50 years, while another can last as long as 200 years Often assumed, EULs can be quite uncertain, which is reflected on the national level by the wide range of public water system infrastructure reeds predictions: AWWA claims $1 trillion for the next 25 years (AWWA 2014), and the US Environmental Protection Agency predicts $384.2 billion berween 2011 and 2030 (USEPA 2013). Uncertainty about ie ‘05 ne ie i EULs also affects the reliability of long-term financial planning, Various approaches are available to assess the physical condition of pine and can help estimate a pipe’s EUL. Condition assessment costs are decreasing but are still not common place for many utilities. However, the absence of physical condition dara is nor an obstacle for water main replacement planning. Main break data can be used as an indica tor af condition. Therefore, trends and estimates of EULs can be made that allow utility managers to create long-term financial plans (Figure 1) Physical condition assessment and statistical analyses are not competing approaches but rather complementary Numerous technical sessions and vari fous presenters outlined methods that ‘combine physical condition assessment with statisical techniques co estimate or validate EULs. The presenters de- seribed replacement planning, models that can function with lite to no reli- ance on data and advanced methods of deploying descripeive and predictive statistical techniques on tility specific data (Vanrenterghem Raven & Vause 2014, Helgeson & Vanrenterghem Raven 2013, Miller 2013), Improving the ability to determine EULs using condition or perfo data will advance utilities closer to the ideal vision of health and sound- ness. Replacement decisions based solely on assumed EULs can lead 10 higher life-cycle costs as a result of premature replacement or excessive pipe failures before their planned replacement. deal, investment deci= sons should be made using statistical analysis, which may drive new eff ciencies and wiser spending as well as ‘offer ways ro improve replacement and renewal planning, CONCLUSION There isno one way to advance in asset management. However, utilities ‘can make improvements using some ‘of the key practices deseribed in this article, especially when addressing, immediate needs, working within a budget, and responding appropri= ately to the concerns expressed in the AWWA 2018 State of the Water Industry Report. ‘ABOUT THE AUTHORS. ‘This article was prepared by the following members of the AWWA ‘Asset Management Committee: Jeff Leighton (chair), Kurt Vause (vice-chair), Celine Hyer (secretary), Annie Vanronterghem Raven, Kevin Campanella, and Jobn J. Galleber. Leighton (to whom correspondence may be addressed) is. sonar engineer in charge of the Asset Management Group at the Portland Water Bureau, 1120 SW 5th Ave, St. 4600, Portland, OR 97204 USA; jeffleighton@portlandoregon.go2: He oversees risk management, condition assessment, asset replacement forecasting, asset management plans, and business case development efforts for Portland Water Bureau, Vause is @ principal at streamlineAM, Anchorage, Alaska. Hyer is vice president of Arcadis US Inc (Tampa, Fla.). Vanrenterghem Raven is managing director of InfiaPLAN (New York, N.Y). Campanella isa utilities planning leader at Burgess & Niple Inc