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Paper Title
Modeling the Existence of Basic Offspring Number on Basic Reproductive Ratio of Dengue without Vertical Transmission
Authors
Hamidah Nasution, Herman Mawengkang, Syahril Pasaribu
Abstract
Dengue fever is a flavivirus of the family flaviviridae and transmitted to human after biting the infected vectors. The main vectors of dengue are Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. There are four serotypes of dengue virus, viz. DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. The dengue virus, one of the virus that causes classical dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is primarily found in the tropical and subtropical regions. Indonesia with the tropical climate has become an ideal land for dengue virus transmission. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from asymptomatic infections or mild illness, to the more severe forms of infection such as dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. The transmission of virus between mosquito can occur in two mechanisms, viz., horizontally and vertically. If the infected mosquito bite a human susceptible such that the human is infected, then this kind of transmission is called horizontal. The vertically transmission can occur from infected female mosquitoes to next generation. In this paper we build what is called Basic Offspring Number (Q0) based on the rate of change of aquatic mosquito and the total rate of change of mosquito population. Mathematical model is formulated to estimate the dynamics of the spread of disease dengue associated with basic offspring number Q0 (how the contribution of basic offspring number on basic reproductive ratio R0). The result shows that the existence of Q0 is significant toward R0.
Keywords
Dengue, vertical transmission, basic offspring number, basic reproductive ratio, mathematical modeling..
Citation/Export
MLA
Hamidah Nasution, Herman Mawengkang, Syahril Pasaribu, “Modeling the Existence of Basic Offspring Number on Basic Reproductive Ratio of Dengue without Vertical Transmission”, June 16 Volume 4 Issue 6 , International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication (IJRITCC), ISSN: 2321-8169, PP: 21 - 26
APA
Hamidah Nasution, Herman Mawengkang, Syahril Pasaribu, June 16 Volume 4 Issue 6, “Modeling the Existence of Basic Offspring Number on Basic Reproductive Ratio of Dengue without Vertical Transmission”, International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication (IJRITCC), ISSN: 2321-8169, PP: 21 - 26

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Volume: 4 Issue: 6 21 - 26

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Modeling the Existence of Basic Offspring Number on Basic Reproductive Ratio

of Dengue without Vertical Transmission

**Hamidah Nasution Herman Mawengkang Syahril Pasaribu
**

Department of Mathematics Department of Mathematics Medical Faculty

State University of Medan University of Sumatera Utara University of Sumatera Utara

Medan, Indonesia Medan, Indonesia Medan, Indonesia

Hamidah_mat67@yahoo.com hmawengkang@yahoo.com

Abstract— Dengue fever is a flavivirus of the family flaviviridae and transmitted to human after biting the infected vectors.

The main vectors of dengue are Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. There are four serotypes of dengue virus, viz. DEN-1,

DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. The dengue virus, one of the virus that causes classical dengue fever (DF) and dengue

haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is primarily found in the tropical and subtropical regions. Indonesia with the tropical climate has

become an ideal land for dengue virus transmission. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from asymptomatic infections or mild

illness, to the more severe forms of infection such as dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. The transmission

of virus between mosquito can occur in two mechanisms, viz., horizontally and vertically. If the infected mosquito bite a

human susceptible such that the human is infected, then this kind of transmission is called horizontal. The vertically

transmission can occur from infected female mosquitoes to next generation. In this paper we build what is called Basic

Offspring Number (Q0) based on the rate of change of aquatic mosquito and the total rate of change of mosquito population.

Mathematical model is formulated to estimate the dynamics of the spread of disease dengue associated with basic offspring

number Q0 (how the contribution of basic offspring number on basic reproductive ratio R0). The result shows that the

existence of Q0 is significant toward R0.

**Keywords- Dengue, vertical transmission, basic offspring number, basic reproductive ratio, mathematical modeling..
**

__________________________________________________*****_________________________________________________

**I. INTRODUCTION female mosquitoes to next generation. In this study, we used a
**

model SIR (susceptible, Infected and Recovered) and in

Dengue fever (DD), Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and particular we notice the aquatic phase at Ae. aegypti.

Dengue Shock Sindoroma (SSD) are infectious disease caused Further modeling of dengue dynamic is helpful to examine

by the dengue virus. The dengue virus has four serotypes, the aquatic and adult mosquito control [5, 6]. Ref. [13] propose

namely DEN-TYPE I, DEN-TYPE II, DEN DEN-TYPE III and an optimal control technique based on biological control to

TYPE IV ([4]). The spread of dengue virus occurs when there is reduce the fertile female mosquitoes. Another control for

an interaction between the host and vector. In this case the mosquito using sterile insect release and habitat modification is

spread of dengue virus in the human body is called the proposed by [8] and [12]. Ref. [2] address a mathematical

mosquito vector. Model epidemiology is a formal framework to model that captures the essence of dengue transmission, from

convey ideas about the components of the host-vector which they derive the main parameter related to the intensity of

interactions. The mathematical model can also be used to dengue transmission, called the Basic Reproduction Number.

predict, understand and develop strategies to control the spread Recently, [3] present a mathematical model for the dengue

of infectious diseases by helping to understand the behavior of disease transmission and finding the effective way of

the system with a variety of conditions [1]. Through controlling the disease. They use multiobjective optimization to

mathematical models we are able to predict the condition find the optimal control strategies.

where dengue disease may become epidemic or not by In this study, we develop a mathematical model that uses

examining the behavior of each parameter on a mathematical existing models of SIR (susceptible, infected and recovered),

model constructed. and determining the equilibrium point and especially in the mosquito vector, which will be considered the

the basic reproduction number. mosquito population when in aquatic. With the aquatics phase,

Dengue virus is transmitted from an infected human to a the model of the mosquito vector is ASI (Aquatic, susceptible

female Aedes mosquito by a bite. The mosquito, which needs and Infected). Furthermore, through this model will be built a

regular meals of blood to feed their eggs, bites a potentially model to determine the Basic Offspring Number (Qo) by

healthy human and transmit the disease. Therefore the existence observing the aquatic compartment and the rate of change of the

of mosquitoes is very important in the spread of this virus. One total population of mosquitoes. Basic Offspring Number (Qo) is

way to handle the transmission of the virus is through the a number that represents the number of mosquitoes are born to

control of mosquito populations [12]. Because until now there each adult mosquitoes over a period of time. Then we will

is no vaccine for all four serotypes of the virus even though construct Reproductive Ratio number (Ro) and associate it with

many efforts have been made to find the vaccine. [14]. Basic Offspring Number (Qo). Next we will analyze the

The spread of the virus in the mosquito vectorr can occur by relationship between Qo and Ro through simulation.

two mechanisms, i.e horizontally and vertically. Horizontally

transmission occurs when an infected mosquito bites a human

vulnerable and Vertically transmission occurs from infected

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International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication ISSN: 2321-8169

Volume: 4 Issue: 6 21 - 26

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II. MODEL FORMULATION

??? ??? ?ℎ ??

In the model of SIR, the human population is divided into = ??? − − ?? ??

three sub-population that is susceptible human (?ℎ ), Infected ?? ?ℎ

human (?ℎ ) ,and recovered human (?ℎ ) , with total human ??? ?? ? ?

population: ?ℎ + ?ℎ + ?ℎ = ?ℎ . The human population is

= ?? ℎ ? − ?? ?? (1)

?? ℎ

assumed to be constant, with the birth rate (?ℎ ) and the

mortality rate (?ℎ ) are the same. The mosquito population is with conditions :

divided into three subpopulations, namely aquatic mosquitoes ?ℎ = ?ℎ + ?ℎ + ?ℎ ??? ?? = ?? + ?? (2)

(?? ), susceptible mosquitoes (?? ), and infected mosquitoes Where :

(?? ), with a total population of mosquitoes: ?? + ?? = ?? . ?ℎ is the total number of human population

The proportion infections of human susceptible (?ℎ ), by

?? is the total number of mosquitoes population

mosquitoes infected (?? ), per day is the ratio between chances

?ℎ is the death rate of the human population

of transmission of the dengue virus from mosquitoes to humans

(?ℎ ) by the total number of human (?ℎ ) multiplied by the ?? is the death rate of the mosquitoespopulation

average mosquito bites on humans per day (b) and the number ?ℎ is the birth rate of the human population

?? b is the biting rate of the mosquitoes population

of infected mosquitoes (?? )is expressed as follows: ℎ ?ℎ ?? . ?ℎ is the transmission probability of dengue virus from

?ℎ

Human susceptible (?ℎ ) , move into humans infected (?ℎ ) . mosquito to human population

Humans are naturally infected die as much as ?ℎ ?ℎ . ?? is the transmission probability of dengue virus from human

The proportion infection of mosquito susceptible (?? ), due population to mosquitoes population

to the biting infected humans (?ℎ ) per day is the ratio between ?ℎ is the recovery rate of human population

chances of transmission of the dengue virus from humans to k is the fraction of female mosquitoes hatched from all eggs

mosquitoes (?? ) by the total number of human (?ℎ ) multiplied ?? is the average oviposition rate

by the average mosquito bites on humans per day (b) and the C is the mosquito carrying capacity

number of humans infected (?ℎ ) is expressed as follows:

???

? is the average aquatic transition rate

?? ?ℎ . The next step is the sensitive mosquitoes infected ?? is the average aquatic mortality rate

?ℎ

mosquitoes move into (?? ) and susceptible mosquitoes that die

naturally as ?? ?? . Schematically, the pattern of spread of The total number of populations both human and mosquitoes

dengue disease between host (human) and vectors (mosquitoes) populations were assumed constant. We obtain ?ℎ = ?ℎ .

are illustrated in the following diagram compartment:

III. ANALYSIS OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Analysis of fixed point on the system of differential

Oviposition equations are often used to find a solution that does not change

over time. In this sub-chapter sought a fixed point of Eq. (1) in

areas that have biological significance called Ω, with:

Ω = (?ℎ , ?ℎ , ?ℎ , ?? , ?? , ?? ∈ ℜ6+ , (?ℎ + ?ℎ + ?ℎ ≤ 1; ?? +

?? ≤ 1} (3)

**Fixed point on the model SIR-ASI six-dimensional is very
**

important, because these points are the base for determining the

basic offspring number ( ?0 ), basic reproduction ratio ( ?0 ),

point endemic and stability of each fixed point.

The fixed point of the system of differential equations (1) is

?? ?? ?? ??

obtained by determining : ℎ = 0, ℎ = 0, ℎ = 0, ? =

?? ?? ?? ??

Figure 1. Flow diagram of human- vector model SIR–ASI ??? ???

0, = 0 ??? = 0. (4)

?? ??

Fig 1. Shows the mosquito population growth rate of

aquatic mosquitoes which is influenced by multiplying the From these results it will be obtained three types of

proportion of births of female mosquitoes of all eggs hatched equilibrium point in Ω, ie elimination of mosquito populations

(k), the average rate of oviposition (?? ) , chances between (?0 ), disease-free-equilibrium point(?1 ) and endmicequilibrium

mosquitoes carrying capacity and the total number of point (?2 ). This article only discusses the equilibrium point?0

mosquitoes. Based on the Fig. 1 system of differential and ?1 .

equations for each compartment can be expressed as:

A. Equilibrium ?0 (?ℎ , ?ℎ , ?ℎ , ?? , ?? , ?? ) = E1 (?ℎ , 0,0,0,0,0)

??ℎ ??ℎ ?? ?ℎ

= ?ℎ ?ℎ − − ?ℎ ?ℎ The fixed point ?0 indicates that there susceptible human

?? ?ℎ population, the number of susceptible human population

??ℎ ?? ? ? ?ℎ = ?ℎ . This means that the total human susceptible ?ℎ equal

= ℎ?? ℎ − ?ℎ ?ℎ − ?ℎ ?ℎ

?? ℎ to the sum total of human ( ?ℎ .). The ?0 point that the

??ℎ

= ?ℎ ?ℎ − ?ℎ ?ℎ conditions of equilibrium occurs when the entire human

?? population is free from dengue disease, and also shows there is

??? ?? no population of mosquitoes, so that at ?0 no virus and

= ??? 1 − ?? + ?? − ??? − ?? ??

?? ? infected cells.

22

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International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication ISSN: 2321-8169

Volume: 4 Issue: 6 21 - 26

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

By analysis E0, will be elaborated basic offspring number ? ?

(?0 ), it represents the number of mosquitoes born from each

? ? − ? +?? ? =0 (15)

? ?

adult mosquitoes during the period the productivity of adult

mosquitoes. The method used to find ?0 is the next generation ?? ? ?

We find that ?1 = 0 ??? ?2 = . The eigenvalues

(? +? ? )? ?

matrix. In this case it is assumed that ?? = ?? + ?? .

obtained have the maximum value and the value of these into

Furthermore, differential equations compartment of view on

basic offspring number (?0 ). So the basic offspring number

the mosquito population:

??? ?? (?0 ) from ?0 is:

= ??? 1 − ?? + ?? − ??? − ?? ?? ??? ??? = ?? ?

??

??? − ?? ?? .

?

(5) ?0 = (? +??)? (16)

? ?

??

Assuming that ? = 0 and ?? = 0 , then (5) becomes:

??

? The value of Q0 Eq. (16) depends on aquatic parameters

0 = ??? 1 − ? ?? + ?? − ??? − ?? ?? ??? 0 = and adult. If the aquatic transition rate value (?) is greater,than

?

??? − ?? ?? (6) ?0 value is greater too, and existence of mosquitoes in the field

increases. The basic offspring number value is very important

Suppose that ?1 is the interaction of aquatic mosquitoes and to the existence of DFE. If Q0>1 then there must be

adult mosquitoes in ??? and ?2 is the interaction of equilibrium point ?1 (DFE).

mosquitoes aquatic and adult mosquitoes in ??? , then ?1 and

B. Desease Free Equilibrium point (DFE)

?2 is the moving rate between compartments of??? and ???

then : ?1 (?ℎ , ?ℎ , ?ℎ , ?? , ?? , ?? ) =

?? ?(???? − ??? − ?? ??

?1 = ??? (1 − )?? ; ?2 = 0 ; (7) ?1(?ℎ , 0,0, ,

? ??? ?

?1 = ??? + ?? ?? ; ?2 = −??? + ?? ?? (8) ?(? ?? ? −?? ? −? ? ? ?

The Jaobian matrix of (7) and (8) : , 0) (17)

?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ?

− ??? (1 − ) ? + ?? 0

?= ? ? ??? ? = (9)

0 0 −? ?? The equilibrium point E1 shows that the human susceptible

population (?ℎ ) are exist, aquatic mosquito population and

Let t=0, then ?? = ?? = 0 then: mosquito populations susceptible are exist. But the point

?0 = (?ℎ = ?ℎ , ?? = 0, ?ℎ = 0, ?? = 0, ?? = 0 ??? ?? = 0 remains E1 shows that there is not virus or infected cells.

(10) From the analysis of equilibrium point E1 we construct the

Subtitute Eq. (10) to Eq. (9) : basic reproduction ratio. The basic reproduction ratio is

0 ??? denoted by R0. The R0 is defined as the number of secondary

?= (11)

0 0 cases or cases both produced by one patient infected and can

transmit the disease. The method used to determine the basic

and reproduction ratio is the next generation matrix with ?0 =

?(?? −1 ) is spectral radius or the greatest eigenvalue of K=

1

0 ?. ? −1 .

? +?

? −1 = ?

?

1 (12) The Basic Reproduction ratio (R0) is derived by equation

compartment dengue virus infected. In this case

(?+? ? )? ? ?? ?ℎ ??? ?? where:

??ℎ ?? ℎ ?? ?ℎ

= − ?ℎ ?ℎ − ?ℎ ?ℎ (18)

?? ?ℎ

1

0 ???

=

??? ?ℎ ??

− ?? ??

0 ??? ? +? ?

Let ? = ?? −1 = ? 1 then ?? ?ℎ

0 0

(?+? ? )? ? ?? The secondary infection from (17) :

?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ℎ ?? ?ℎ ??? ?ℎ ??

?= (? +? ? )? ? ?? (13) ?1 = ;;?2 = (19)

?ℎ ?ℎ

0 0

and the primary infection (17):

Using linear algebra operations, eigenvalues of matrix K

?1 = ?ℎ ?ℎ + ?ℎ ?ℎ ; ?2 = ?? ?? (20)

can be determined by calculating the det ? − ?? = 0. Where I

is the identity matrix, then:

?? ? ?? ? The Jacobian matrices of (18) and (19) are

? 0

??? (? +? ? )? ? ?? − = 0

?? ℎ ?ℎ

0

0 0 0 ? ?ℎ ?ℎ + ?ℎ 0

?= ??? ? = (21)

?? ? ?

−?

?? ? ??? ??

0 0 ??

??? (? +? ? )? ? ?? (14) ?ℎ

0 −?

Thus: Substitute Eq. (16) to Eq. (17) we get

23

IJRITCC | June 2016, Available @ http://www.ijritcc.org

_______________________________________________________________________________________

International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication ISSN: 2321-8169

Volume: 4 Issue: 6 21 - 26

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

?ℎ

1 0.000046

?2 = (?ℎ = ?ℎ , ?ℎ = 0, ?ℎ = 0, ?? = ? 1 − , ?? = ?ℎ

?0 0.75

?? 1

?ℎ

1− , ?? = 0 0,083-0.25

?? ?0

(22) ??

0.02-0.09

??

0.01-0.47

??

0 − 11.2

Substitute (22) to (21), we find : ?

0-0.19

??

1

0. 75

0 ??ℎ 0 b

0-1

? +?

? = ??? ?? (1−?1 ) ??? ? −1 = ℎ ℎ 1 (23) Sources : ([11]; [7]; [10]; [15])

? ? ?ℎ

0

0 0 ??

Next, we show simulation of basic offspring number (?0 )

Le K= ?. ? −1 , then : with oviposition rate (?? ), and basic offspring number (?0 )

versus aquatic mortality rate (?? ) in interval [0.01,0.50], and

?? ℎ aquatic transition rate are different.

0 ??

?= 1

??? ?? (1− )

(24)

?0

0

? ? ?ℎ (? ℎ +? ℎ )

**Using linear algebra operations, eigenvalues of matrix K
**

can be determined after calculating the det ? − ?? = 0 .

Where I is the identity matrix, then:

1

?? (1− )? ? ? 2

?0 ℎ ?

? ? = 2 ?? (25)

?ℎ (? ℎ +? ℎ )? ?

(a)

1

?? (1− )? ? ? 2

?0 ℎ ?

?0 = 2 (26)

?ℎ (? ℎ +? ℎ )? ?

The basic reproduction ratio (R0) is :

1

?? (1− )? ? ? 2

?0 ℎ ?

?0 = 2 (27)

?ℎ (? ℎ +? ℎ )? ?

**The ?0 value at (27) depends on the parameters of
**

mosquitoes and humans. Multiplication coefficients and (b)

quadratic transmission from mosquito bites rate ?ℎ ?? ? 2 ,

explains that the new cases of dengue fever occur only when a Figure 2. .(a) Baisc offspring number vs Oviposition rate; (b)

mosquito succeeded in transmitting the dengue virus to Basic Offspring Number (Q0) vs Aquatic Mortality (?? )

humans when mosquitoes bite humans had been infected and

susceptible. Or susceptible mosquitoes bite humans infected The Fig 2a, shows ?? value proportional to the value of

with dengue virus then mosquitoes become infected and ready ?0 , it means that if the ?? value increases, the value of ?0 is

to transmit dengue virus to other humans [9]. increases too. The Fig (2b) shows that if the ?? value increases

then the ?0 value is decreased or if the ?0 value increases then

the rate of mortality of aquatic is getting smaller.

IV. SIMULATION This simulation illustrates the relationship between the

basic reproductive ratio (?0 ) with a mortality rate of

For each sub-population, here are some parameters and mosquitoes (?? ) and bite mosquitoes per day (b). In this case

values to get the results of this simulation : the value of aquatic transition rate (η) is still varied.

TABLE I. PARAMETERS VALUE

Parameter Nilai

24

IJRITCC | June 2016, Available @ http://www.ijritcc.org

_______________________________________________________________________________________

International Journal on Recent and Innovation Trends in Computing and Communication ISSN: 2321-8169

Volume: 4 Issue: 6 21 - 26

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

mosquito transition into adult mosquitoes (η), the greater the

value Q0. The greater the value of Q0 existence of mosquitoes

in the field increases. The values of basic offspring number is

very big contributed on fixed point disease-free-equilibrium

(DFE). Because of the existence of the disease-free-

equilibrium is determined by a of basic offspring number Q0. If

?0 > 1 then the point remains disease free equilibrium must

exist.

To determine of the ?0 , we use of compartments taken only

on subpopulations infected on the host and vector are

?ℎ ??? ?? , with next generation matrix method, matrix K

obtained indicate dengue virus transmitted indirectly. This

(a) means that dengue virus can not be transmitted from human to

human or from mosquito to other mosquito. Then from the

matrix K expressed a mosquito can infect humans by ??ℎ over

1

a period of time , then a person is infected can transmit the

??

1

??? ?? (1− )

?0

infection as much mosquitoes during the time

?ℎ

1

period of .

? ? (? ℎ +? ℎ )

The ?0 value, was also influenced by a number Q0, where

the relationship between Q0 and ?0 provides several

possibilities, among others:

**(b) 1. If the basic offspring number (Q0)<1, then R0<1, meaning
**

that if on the field does not exist the mosquito then dengue

Figure 3. (a) Basic Reproductive Ratio (R0) vs mortality rate of disease can not be transmitted because there is no vector.

mosquitoes (?? ) and (b) Basic Reproductive Ratio (R0) vs bite 2. If the basic offspring number (Q0)>1 and R0<1, meaning

per day (b). that there are mosquitoes on the field but did not transmit

the dengue virus. It also shows that the presence of

The existence of AedesAegyptimosquitoes population mosquitoes is not always transmit the disease, as shown in

greatly influence the spread of dengue disease. Basic offspring the fixed point disease free equilibrium.

number (?0 ) is a number that indicates the amount of aquatic 3. If the basic offspring number (Q0)>1, and the basic

mosquito born of adult female mosquitoes during the period reproduction number (R0)>1, meaning that the mosquito

the productivity of adult mosquitoes, its threshold indicates the population is on the field, the existence of R0 is also

existence of mosquitoes in the field. If (?0 )> 1, then there is nothing to suggest that during the course of infection has

the possibility of dengue virus becoming endemic, but if produced more than one secondary cases. This condition

(?0 )<1, there would be no mosquito or in other word endemic also shows the endemic state. So endemic conditions arise

condition may not occur. Hence, given a simulation between when the value of ?02 > 1

the basic reproduction ratio(?0 )and the basic offspring number

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Volume: 4 Issue: 6 21 - 26

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26

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