Produk Sepeda Anak

Periode Demand Perusahaan Demand Pesaing 1 Demand Pesaing 2 Periode
1 128923 68330 21917 1
2 63386 33595 10776 2
3 137518 72886 23378 3
4 208774 110652 35491 4
5 115098 61003 19566 5
6 104917 55607 17836 6
7 39663 21022 6743 7
8 163803 86817 27846 8
9 48997 25969 8330 9
10 156026 82695 26524 10
11 159700 84642 27149 11
12 203619 107920 34615 12
13 123600 65509 21012 13
14 182728 96847 31063 14
15 240684 127564 40915 15
16 168339 89221 28617 16
17 217734 115401 37014 17
18 201857 106986 34315 18
19 78852 41793 13405 19
20 182655 96809 31051 20
21 224757 119123 38208 21
22 240391 127409 40866 22
23 286413 151801 48689 23
24 341981 181252 58135 24
25 194475 103073 33060 25
26 245885 130321 41800 26
27 300882 159470 51149 27
28 217462 115257 36968 28
29 247972 131427 42154 29
30 323193 171295 54941 30
31 281364 149125 47831 31
32 346511 183653 58905 32
33 289824 153609 49269 33
34 249808 132400 42466 34
35 271518 143907 46157 35
36 293389 155498 49875 36
37 313361 166227 53316 37
38 342022 181274 58142 38
39 305806 162079 51986 39
40 326417 173003 55489 40
41 432623 229293 73544 41
42 323132 171262 54931 42
43 368271 195186 62604 43
44 393085 208338 66823 44
45 334299 177181 56829 45
46 271690 143998 46186 46

47 357234 189337 60728 47
48 312142 165438 53063 48
49 274669 145577 46693 49
50 341214 180846 58005 50
51 404995 214650 68847 51
52 297958 157920 50652 52
53 342659 181612 58251 53
54 380477 201656 64679 54
55 400138 212076 68022 55
56 412381 218565 70103 56
57 470604 249423 80000 57
58 419773 222483 71359 58
59 451719 239414 76790 59
60 390071 206740 66310 60

Produk Pompa Sepeda Produk Sepeda Anak (+NPM x
Demand Perusahaan Demand Pesaing 1 Demand Pesaing 2 NO
237430 46946 95513 Harga Produk
324805 64222 130662 Periode
164346 32495 66113 1
316066 62494 127147 2
91123 18018 36657 3
294124 58156 118320 4
291143 57566 117121 5
220736 43645 88797 6
317064 62691 127548 7
308616 61021 124150 8
236953 46852 95321 9
243994 48244 98154 10
299126 59145 120332 11
287612 56868 115700 12
253139 50052 101832 13
382459 75621 153855 14
269471 53281 108402 15
326878 64632 131496 16
377399 74621 151819 17
306885 60679 123453 18
407146 80503 163786 19
306213 60546 123183 20
431460 85310 173567 21
307818 60863 123829 22
347299 68670 139711 23
348768 68960 140302 24
356609 70510 143456 25
395106 78122 158943 26
461077 91166 185481 27
415653 82185 167208 28
447465 88475 180005 29
388494 76815 156283 30
389764 77066 156794 31
478060 94524 192313 32
460086 90970 185082 33
439006 86802 176602 34
454269 89820 182742 35
502386 99334 202099 36
494855 97845 199069 37
405821 80241 163253 38
362978 71770 146018 39
504557 99763 202972 40
471498 93227 189673 41
475795 94076 191402 42
487013 96294 195915 43
512125 101259 206017 44

498852 98635 200677 45 416501 82352 167549 46 490569 96997 197345 47 601794 118989 242088 48 520921 102999 209555 49 512704 101374 206249 50 527617 104323 212249 51 503007 99457 202349 52 568471 112400 228683 53 498839 98632 200672 54 614466 121495 247186 55 607172 120052 244252 56 585118 115692 235380 57 499535 98770 200952 58 59 60 .

000 475.000 Demand (Data G) PIG P2G Periode Demand (Data C) PIC 129523 68930 22517 1 238030 47546 63986 34195 11376 2 325405 64822 138118 73486 23978 3 164946 33095 209374 111252 36091 4 316666 63094 115698 61603 20166 5 91723 18618 105517 56207 18436 6 294724 58756 40263 21622 7343 7 291743 58166 164403 87417 28446 8 221336 44245 49597 26569 8930 9 317664 63291 156626 83295 27124 10 309216 61621 160300 85242 27749 11 237553 47452 204219 108520 35215 12 244594 48844 124200 66109 21612 13 299726 59745 183328 97447 31663 14 288212 57468 241284 128164 41515 15 253739 50652 168939 89821 29217 16 383059 76221 218334 116001 37614 17 270071 53881 202457 107586 34915 18 327478 65232 79452 42393 14005 19 377999 75221 183255 97409 31651 20 307485 61279 225357 119723 38808 21 407746 81103 240991 128009 41466 22 306813 61146 287013 152401 49289 23 432060 85910 342581 181852 58735 24 308418 61463 195075 103673 33660 25 347899 69270 246485 130921 42400 26 349368 69560 301482 160070 51749 27 357209 71110 218062 115857 37568 28 395706 78722 248572 132027 42754 29 461677 91766 323793 171895 55541 30 416253 82785 281964 149725 48431 31 448065 89075 347111 184253 59505 32 389094 77415 290424 154209 49869 33 390364 77666 250408 133000 43066 34 478660 95124 272118 144507 46757 35 460686 91570 293989 156098 50475 36 439606 87402 313961 166827 53916 37 454869 90420 342622 181874 58742 38 502986 99934 306406 162679 52586 39 495455 98445 327017 173603 56089 40 406421 80841 433223 229893 74144 41 363578 72370 323732 171862 55531 42 505157 100363 368871 195786 63204 43 472098 93827 393685 208938 67423 44 476395 94676 .000 475.000 75.Produk Sepeda Anak (+NPM x 60) Produk Pompa Sepeda (+NPM x 60) Perusahaan Pesaing 1 Pesaing 2 NO Perusahaan Pesaing 1 450.000 Harga Produk 65.

334899 177781 57429 45 487613 96894 272290 144598 46786 46 512725 101859 357834 189937 61328 47 499452 99235 312742 166038 53663 48 417101 82952 275269 146177 47293 49 491169 97597 341814 181446 58605 50 602394 119589 405595 215250 69447 51 521521 103599 298558 158520 51252 52 513304 101974 343259 182212 58851 53 528217 104923 381077 202256 65279 54 503607 100057 400738 212676 68622 55 569071 113000 412981 219165 70703 56 499439 99232 471204 250023 80600 57 615066 122095 420373 223083 71959 58 607772 120652 452319 240014 77390 59 585718 116292 390671 207340 66910 60 500135 99370 .

000 Rp61.350.000.700.250.000.025.425.000 174167 25 Rp87.000 Rp21.250.175.000.857.800.000 Rp13.825.000.000 Rp115.000.000 Rp98.437.000.000 Rp41.127.950.785.000 Rp102.000 1 Rp58.475.862.000 164386 23 Rp129.706.631.000 159543 30 Rp145.937.475.000.250.000 Rp56.175.687.000 Rp300.000 192002 46 Rp122.022.600.666.000 .650.282.000 192913 36 Rp132.155.034.000 89397 10 Rp70.000.000 Rp61.453.000.464.124.907.000 Rp40.050.000 Rp114.000 P2C 2 Rp28.679.550.975.100.000 66713 5 Rp52.876.000 Rp180.000 124750 12 Rp91.525.000 177202 38 Rp154.650.125.882.000 Rp0 167808 32 Rp156.445.600.000 Rp250.000 Agregat Pesain 152419 21 Rp101.000 95921 13 Rp55.597.400.000 Rp95.000.000 37257 7 Rp18.327.300.350.875.991.704.000 Rp123.000.000 180605 33 Rp130.800.543.105.000.153.025.000.802.000.000.218.000 185682 37 Rp141.000 96113 3 Rp62.000 Rp108.950.000 Rp72.850.000 Rp83.000 Rp94.000 186081 31 Rp126.122.000 132096 20 Rp82.753.481.050.375.350.000 Rp83.500.000 127747 6 Rp47.100.278.530.000.318.350.000 Rp43.000 Rp20.000 Rp200.000 Rp26.000 Rp160.000 Rp90.025.000 163853 42 Rp145.000 118920 8 Rp73.000 102432 17 Rp98.000 Rp35.614.135.450.000 Rp80.274.233.650.875.500.050.700.000.000 190273 45 Rp150.000 Rp52.675.020.000 140311 27 Rp135.898.000 Rp140.000 Rp120.650.670.000 Rp55.950.000.650.000 Rp150.000.482.000 Rp80.271.000 Rp75.161.064.550.789.925.750.000 Rp60.449.158.000 Agregat Perusaha 131262 4 Rp94.300.250.577.750.000.000 Rp50.000 Rp100.327.900.000 Rp100.725.050.000 Rp100.683.925.000.199.000 128148 11 Rp72.350.400.793.000 Rp104.295.000 Rp82.950.000 140902 28 Rp98.750.179.000 144056 29 Rp111.417.850.497.000 123783 24 Rp154.700.400.852.000 Rp38.000 116300 16 Rp76.918.000 124429 26 Rp110.750.550.000 98754 14 Rp82.000 146618 43 Rp165.840.724.000 109002 19 Rp35.000.000 Rp0 120932 15 Rp108.900.000.981.292.475.250.020.100.600.325.967.000.700.000 Rp69.000.000 Rp16.000 Rp67.000 199669 41 Rp194.000 Rp108.000 Rp114.302.000 Rp109.000 156883 34 Rp112.225.850.000 Rp80.000 203572 44 Rp177.925.987.500.455.000.157.000.000.900.118.800.000 Rp72.000.285.125.000 117721 9 Rp22.000 Rp46.400.000 157394 35 Rp122.975.883.410.NPM x 60) Konversi ke Nilai Uang Pesaing 2 Periode Sepeda Perusahaan Sepeda Pesaing 75.000.100.000 202699 40 Rp147.000 Rp200.032.758.000 Rp90.000.000 Rp65.450.625.667.646.000 183342 39 Rp137.400.103.000.100.400.000 124053 22 Rp108.250.011.303.000 Rp131.000 Rp53.000 Rp144.000.295.000 Rp111.000 154455 18 Rp91.575.000 Rp68.890.050.783.000.275.690.000 Rp96.225.

000 Rp99.000 244852 60 Rp175.543.000 210155 53 Rp154.357.504.000 201277 49 Rp123.250.000 Rp137.041.025.000 212849 55 Rp180.024.550.268.650.000 242688 52 Rp134.125.000 Rp104.000 Rp114.466.000 202949 56 Rp185.000 Rp140.687.050.100.766.337.144.505.000 Rp157.193.750.100.000 168149 50 Rp153.816.700.225.000 Rp127.550.616.231.300.82 0.332.000 201272 58 Rp189.733.000 206617 48 Rp140.000 229283 57 Rp212.83 .650.000 Rp150.000 Rp133.875.750.850.950.450.000 Rp135.079.000 201552 Proporsi 0.000 Rp91.000 247786 59 Rp203.925.000 Rp130.517.871.447.167.900.075.841.641.300.950.000 Rp119.196515 47 Rp161.351.045.300.898.975.000 206849 54 Rp171.801.900.550.000 235980 Jumlah Rp7.000 197945 51 Rp182.800.484.350.000 Rp5.925.100.000 Rp114.

000 Rp16.000 Rp117.000.005.850.385.900.000 Rp31.750.639.000 Rp49.000 Rp130.335.050.250.675.160.325.000 Rp73.000.000 Rp26.625.000 Rp43.000 Rp25.300.000 Rp93.575.590.000Rp25.352.575.797.000 Rp116.000 Rp114.850.405.000 Rp103.100.400.898.000 Rp17.000 Rp20.900.000 Rp54.000 Pesaing Rp13.675.190.000 Rp31.967.845.157.426.000 Agregat Perusahaan Rp10.125.275.000 Rp10.357.532.397.231.000 Rp11.885.423.000 Rp250.000 Rp208.750.620.395.290.740.000 Rp17.845.751.000 Rp28.859.056.915.226.000 Rp143.455.660.000 Rp10.757.373.000 Rp196.015.000 Rp14.000 Rp140.796.110.325.218.585.920.000.965.073.000 Rp100.000 Rp32.275.239.183.000 Rp0Rp29.081.838.000 Rp5.307.000.491.000 Rp23.570.583.417.000 Rp125.000 Rp182.835.000 Rp13.300.000 Rp48.790.399.920.204.000.000 Rp174.125.490.942.460.064.686.000 Rp14.500.000 Rp94.323.600.914.300.000.505.921.774.000 Rp21.951.390.700.000 Rp105.825.075.000 Rp30.295.000 Rp102.602.070.216.795.308.000 Rp26.191.000Rp20.343.000 Rp152.600.000 Rp13.500.327.000 Rp23.300.000 Rp22.000 Rp22.000.720.481.000Rp19.000 Rp120.075.000.386.900.000 Rp133.678.610.718.627.841.000 Rp114.550.000 Rp127.950.000 Rp29.482.000 Rp4.357.000 Rp144.794.040.694.440.721.225.000 Rp10.000 Rp112.000Rp23.582.000 Rp21.000.875.000 Rp26.000 Rp50.451.550.000.112.000Rp27.000 Rp24.000 Rp25.000 Rp20.000 Rp55.966.500.609.945.000.503.781.700.874.000.866.000 Rp13.990.000 Rp14.514.000 Rp58.710.580.500.000 Rp178.060.625.485.170.000 Rp31.008.000 Rp180.675.780.575.000 Rp100.000.775.000.750.000 Rp126.763.961.675.075.000 Rp43.000.445.150.706.425.185.000 Rp60.000 Rp15.900.225.058.990.000 Rp72.137.995.000.000 Rp32.000 Rp75.840.190.945.000 Rp101.112.000.733.000 Rp107.000 Rp11.358.203.000 Rp17.300.000.475.372.009.100.030.569.286.300.890.411.424.525.944.060.000 Rp18.644.000 Demand Rp100.000 Rp157.475.219.391.000 Rp160.471. Konversi ke Nilai Uang Pompa Angin Perusahaan Pompa Angin Pesaing Agregat Perusahaan Agregat Pesaing Rp15.000 Rp173.125.697.574.000 Rp73.350.000 Rp160.000 Rp40.000.327.190.000 Rp141.900.000 Rp127.000 Rp20.799.025.000 Rp53.000 Rp155.380.000 Rp22.900.000.613.000 Rp13.100.078.350.869.826.190.000 Rp20.000 Rp128.000 Rp87.000 Rp84.825.000 Rp21.000 Rp200.000 Rp15.650.000 Rp88.000 Rp79.000 Rp133.000.850.000 Rp20.750.370.000 Rp125.000 Rp30.000.000.869.000 Rp128.575.295.000 Rp36.752.000 Rp19.026.000 Rp90.525.000 Rp60.000 Rp158.000 Rp92.005.857.000 Rp64.720.095.000 Rp115.050.475.000.000 Rp156.615.575.208.000 Rp17.899.032.450.493.775.000.845.000 Rp20.675.700.000 Rp7.730.804.850.000 Rp66.869.000 Rp15.000 Rp170.000 Rp114.690.135.400.125.898.043.000.425.000 Rp80.810.525.000 Rp0 Rp16.000 Rp156.425.370.000 Rp16.365.000 Rp13.000 Demand Rp42.750.900.648.925.784.000 Rp20.000 Rp12.000 Rp186.083.775.862.000 Rp15.873.000 Rp172.000 Rp66.000.000 Rp20.935.485.975.000.291.949.725.848.301.550.941.000 Rp13.350.801.000 Rp30.485.566.000.986.000 Rp17.950.935.368.000.440.000 .000 Rp21.218.000.000 Rp181.793.900.713.000 Rp200.000 Rp21.000Rp28.075.124.600.629.000Rp22.435.000 Rp65.000 Rp136.575.220.000 Rp32.000 Rp115.151.000.000 Rp133.000 Rp18.848.170.000 Rp19.975.069.000 Rp14.500.035.300.632.352.490.566.000 Rp74.963.000 Rp29.325.000 Rp82.000 Rp300.087.945.525.000 Rp85.000 Rp98.835.023.000 Rp24.000 Rp17.000 Rp14.000.806.750.487.000 Rp110.000 Agregat Rp19.000 Rp18.000.000 Rp90.000 Rp150.700.000 Rp152.772.590.125.708.385.000 Rp80.000 Rp22.750.000.397.746.090.795.977.000 Rp33.554.000 Rp19.525.694.099.140.000 Rp22.000 Rp124.572.475.000 Rp75.000 Rp13.800.590.781.205.359.645.388.000 Rp18.925.160.000.234.000 Rp170.211.000 Rp218.605.320.047.000 Rp18.070.000 Rp37.000 Rp123.000 Rp114.000 Rp19.123.843.000 Rp160.000 Rp111.025.313.150.835.

900.321.420.463.000 Rp155.290.450.400.000 Rp114.000 Rp23.531.000 Rp34.734.300.000.000 Rp192.030.380.000 Rp217.155.800.400.000 Rp26.486.725.000 Rp27.190.416.071.287.000 Rp218.615.000 Rp27.087.000 Rp39.655.762.170.000 Rp152.797.150.989.565.900.000 Rp228.105.000 Rp39.000 Rp33.538.845.364.898.000 Rp32.000 Rp22.825.334.715.865.000 Rp23.000.775.725.465.000 Rp22.000 Rp204.671.680.035.000 Rp158.000 Rp193.455.000 Rp216.925.000 Rp1.220.000 Rp18.100.225. Rp32.971.640.000 Rp141.000 Rp22.000 Rp138.550.650.575.505.412.610.161.000 Rp32.670.775.000 Rp167.775.550.000 Rp159.000 Rp123.537.021.000 Rp31.000 Rp36.760.180.105.979.000 Rp167.000 Rp160.000 Rp23.195.000 Rp25.000 Rp27.489.985.625.000 Rp184.804.111.725.910.000 Rp167.615.832.000 Rp1.17 .615.832.000 Rp39.464.304.225.800.000 Rp27.889.337.750.535.575.425.18 0.063.000 Rp22.900.000 Rp177.741.000 Rp188.000 Rp22.000 Rp141.275.860.075.787.985.837.000 0.000 Rp38.557.000 Rp32.000 Rp252.000 Rp33.219.715.800.125.000 Rp122.090.673.346.310.565.187.569.000 Rp149.165.000 Rp208.000 Rp241.508.803.

.

.

476.000 137.074.880.405.766.207.733.111 128.249.889 28 123.222 19 60.000 175.889 20 102.991.000 113.815.778 7 37.859.556 25 110.225.000 172.000 53.771.072.000 .070.848.333 8 88.485.864.000 194.797.300.607.843.671.466.000 194.111 109.854.585.310.516.743.000 170.000.778 85.006.026.925.295.395.667 142.667 86.303.323.333 170.378.126.547.879.673.603.000 134.879.025.873.000 156.196.966.222 24 174.181.912.556 38 186.823.415.667 58.713.667 146.440.222 32 181.482.531.855.068.000 197.757.438.000 195.507.397.354.202.667 150.883.637.190.881.707.477.945.015.429.500.645.667 71.667 102.222 94.851.000 35.971.914.230.938.556 181.025.667 118.556 15 125.639.787.160.368.925.914.710.896.136.519.294.208.000 95.320.435.932.111 157.110.582.333 194.111 41 218.790.000 73.869.000 146.333 93.333 165.111 165.580.041.717.372.581.028.156.450.065.720.444 165.000 16 100.000 56.451.087.800.397.784.231.556 120.135.889 195.889 30 172.936.556 195.915.189.000 80.123.215.935.111 .000 109.544.134.222 194.796.333 80.136.270. .213.000 160.333 158.829.678.732.444 169.121.667 146.900.064.828.575.257.278.816.921.575.667 191.055.333 140. Double Moving Average Periode Demand S't S''t at 1 73.556 13 75.889 22 128.444 132.185.424.000 91.667 110.070.740.990.742.170.951.000 153.029.915.605.000 79.396.465.667 155.922.000 190.444 43 196.795.996.000 96.491.000 64.222 178.574.366.365.095.683.575.000 140.111 96.945.281.750.222 33 156.444 17 115.455.584.231.590.222 54.182.333 64.706.939.334.547.281.703.460.111 108.778 83.913.000 180.000 196.388.710.000 150.473.722.332.708.097.848.514.333 107.121.885.333 137.707.667 148.950.399.778 182.274.654.719.333 .889 11 87.111 40 173.560.533.275.561.000 152.335.665.140.333 6 66.000 31 156.925.764.861.556 136.826.200.000 176.196.057.323.111 148.667 163.567.920.056.159.333 65.032.333 88.000 35 152.000 21 127.945.778 45 182.667 9 42.144.164.518.081.243.000 99.720.930.736.625.015.778 23 157.948.804.123.667 67.832.690.762.275.986.543.333 106.778 167.848.427.333 29 141.000 65.333 .111 98.000 79.000 96.480.222 116.000 84.995.533.000 147.590.847.881.111 10 90.902.250.109.835.541.488.542.073. - 2 49.801.845.741.525.391.224. .000 184.000 161.008.222 79.068.558.222 79.431.190.000 100.620.333 75.460.000 73.778 142.734.638.279.000 138.000 139.173.822.000 81.733.317.426.763.333 101.207.831.000 .137.740.521.496.743.239.889 27 158.866.243.087.561.372.107.000 94. - 3 72.111 12 107.680.000 187.758.681.752.889 36 160.333 154.667 42 178.889 203.895.636.930.667 154.148.556 183.000 105.111 144.190.410.667 175.060.180.299.000 90.000 138.841.021.385.000 37 170.426.778 39 170.000 157.000 141.903.280.111 18 112.620.160.000 119.138.000 95.889 34 143.427.000 136.953. - 5 58.627.111 14 101.019.000 109.917.187.657.667 162.068. - 4 114.853.904.874.000 94.333 150.475.560.158.444 44 208.810.737.241.325.222 26 133.028.009.306.380.000 62.248.000 164.347.999.500.435.

375.710.778 59 241.725.368.000 192.111 51 216.766.470.128.556 227.659.356.321.889 173.981.903.395.035.000 226.222 58 228.000 182.359.036.889 183.000 201.333 225.911.397.377.737.852.556 172.873.000 172.625.803.416.797.961.913.999.556 53 188.556 225.204.857.985.780.393.021.706.778 199.444 57 252.333 174.823.248.333 193.556 247.000 177.444 47 193.778 56 218.333 190.219.089.333 172.186.165.889 213.935.715.165.680.111 49 155.595.000 172.615.105.487.090.326.083.000 213.131.667 177.833.658.402.199.000 203.461.328.315.000 215.000 190.000 172.245.930.000 232.322.550.556 52 167.977.842.778 243.900.007.007.889 167.778 55 217.281.447.537.778.115.855.215.341.011.000 188.556 50 192.667 225.220.461.000 229.769.333 54 204.030.655.212.580.127.778 48 167.111 170.701.000 234.845.000 177.860.257.350.971.078.655.116.158.222 169.746.825.111 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 .213.667 191.800.556 240.000 190.310.910.111 200.667 190.085.715.603.413.333 184.465.000 185.126.489.214.615.590.000 186.673.211.587.444 60 208.000 240.46 155.855.547.304.233.

94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 Total .

376.829.530.889 1 148.666 18.889 19.360.444 1 180.124.244.768.223 13.800.375.444 14.370.896.889 24.708.282.556 9.325.999.956.444 1 75.556 6.222 1.723.667.349.629.393.325.613.028.223 242.889 22.889 -1.282.198.988.778 -3.312.822.736.445 10.727.829.428.318.778 18.543.844.370.256.222 -10.105.556 22.331.902.904.333 1 17.914.854.555.675.778 6.334 36.309. - .940.111 1 153.630.016.192.683.000 28.823.349.556 1 52.918.000 -1.534.445 1.176.889 10.289.667 7.865.778 6.000 7.614.365.334 36.823.356.223 .778 1 194.488.530.312.889 1 100.066.111 1 122.673.948.333 1 148.941.430.647.333 6.176.708.685.879.164.778 20.778 1 124.778 18. .000 -25.223 13.000 19.344.587.469. .111 1 124.353.896.483.863.444 2.445 3.976.083.334 -18.270.687.976.387.288.093.445 5.889 6.765.778 20.282.136.823.269.222 1 165.583.362.963.778 1 210.318.727.543.837.778 16.695.222 5.382.888 -6.861.778 -7.607.639.573.378.496.673.604.248.556 6.907. .333 1 151.395.837. .757.732.199.222 1 97.300.793.778 16.112 9.222 16.778 -5.889 7.024. .970.556 1 149.889 5.840.242.490.312.889 1 174.077.889 17.732.895.627.000 1.889 1 195.604.556 23.902.445 14.086.112 11. .976.355.727.268.222.353.245.840.924.837.905.583.000 13.556 1.000 -28.057.515.976.029.164.000 25.246.496.444 1 201.837.685.800.410.000 1 94.298.099.476.334 -487.124.188.090.045.965.324.812.445 13.694.324.889 22.000 1 76.222 3.086.596.820.889 7.478.207. .556 -17.490.778 3.896.223 12.688.222 27.200.579.093.999.371.323.410.164.098.112 1.188.827.778 39.887.444 13.000 -13.844.280.445 -17.778 -27.307.667 1 202.607.349.511.410.512.112 -8.103.437.889 10.331.569.222 5.470.286.223 12.556 1 174.244.469.226.346.312.850.285.444 1 135.167.556 7.203.475.445 -7.444 1 97.708.555.248.652.888 8.865. Perhitungan Peramalan Error bt m F(t+m) et ǀ et ǀ .940.087.556 6.088.556 9.534.270.057.158.761.741.523.112 9.644.112 11.167. .865.573.196.667 1 60.222 1 123.741.232.847.445 3.717.407.824.889 1.820.501.000 1 111.425.694.889.556 12.334 17.889 24.445 13.333 1 154.667 -7.334 17.113.954.778 -36.164.556 1 177.483.107.333 12.258.793.444 -298.222 1 194.288.896.000 -19.778 3.445 14.738.587.157.955.199.083.065.667 -12.065.666 8.778 1 126.854.905.112 -4.575.556 9.470.145.498.111 1 194.523.125.158.702.820.082.511.639.556 12.708.904.844.632.082.538.445 1.444 1 107.445 691. - .000 1 141.478.988.070.889 17.108.865.556 -13.892.556 1 186.556 22.545.970.555 17.222.683.556 23.463.393.282.556 -2.158.667 7.334 3.029.904.299.444 1 85.630.222 36. - 6.353.360.000 -1.326.941.387.688.736.666 16.988.555 -2.563.489.907.515.778 1 187.318.203.222 1 78.346.501.196.207.778 39.666 5.596.334 -16. - .512.614.184.778 12.778 16.556 1 92.198.

875.889 11 238.667.655.154.647.393.066.444 1 237.563.503.363.045.667 -3.691.667 30 258.833.772.179.113.223 -5.030.461.774.684.571.444 31.010.677.502.281.889 19.508.816.122.068.791.111 10.549.889 19.639.778 -121.846.398.537.743.223 -7.112.334 18 245.812.000 15 242.667 21 248.567.112.222.368.223 8.058.787.305.639.777 9.445 31 259.996.470.867.538.909.223 -23.319.889 1 228.778 16 243.889 1 209.684.418.222.889 19.778 1 169.802.333.911.869.233.441.994.112 28 256.816.037.673.222 1 257.342.889 19.900.279.667 2.672.516.347.178.889 1 162.-8.348.402.267.112 10 237.154.652.889 12.977.244.094.150.080.263.001 24 252.368.174.267.932.971.778 13.889 6.223 32 260.713.112 19 246.956.319.475.691.223 14 241.292.700.017.605.444 1 253.218.257.686.778 13.897.113.808.841.037.001 33 261.178.222 1 208.860.310.956.445 22 249.333 1 191.778 7 234.889 13.044.556 17 244.488.168.223 5 232.422.556 -31.446.952.111 1 248.222 1 171.010.932.556 8 235.778 1 228.672.783.994.544.458.444 1 222.222 1 161.777 5.445 -6.223 5.622.889 2 229.667 12 239.555 8.309.168.334.112.136.778 40.222 1 164.000 6 233.112.655.741.445 4 231.445 4.111 21.444 -4.961.363.223 23 251.112.445 7.668.778 .889 1.538.223 5.743.778 25 253.943.461.792.727.971.922.778 40.556 1 180.630.889 19.291.445 4.342.889 12.938.555 6.925.301.889 -21.525.445 13 240.549.737.223 8.508.791.334 9 236.122.116.990.108.292.883.263.777 23.556 26 254.277.436.667 2.706.847.223 12.778 397.996.247.146.530.493.774.990.078.304.889 29 257.315.033.010.213.310.334 27 255.319.889 20 247.972.740.736.889 19.687.667 3 230.777 -1.

585.118 .556 44 272.547.783.855.008.416.889 38 266.889 56 285.445 40 268.092.361.194.551.754.966.667 57 286.375.517.205.778 210.221.825.126.613.382.223 59 288.980.923.556 53 282.163.811.351.334 54 283.223 50 278.112 37 265.001 42 270.450.667 39 267.572.34 262.994.022 884.022.889.556 35 263.600.177.778 43 271.416.191.388.112 46 274.261.160.025.058.822.686.653.720.778 52 280.001 60 289.112 55 284.001 51 279.227.797.334 45 273.957.991.334 36 264.630.402.627.586.667 48 276.445 58 287.484.223 41 269.889 47 275.445 49 277.788.619.755.558.769.219.

163.000. 350.803.423.000.022.000 -10.735.000 12.79 6.131.433.49 MPE 75.025.775.408.563.659.000.262.086.11 2.293.646.529.325.000 4.436.100.000.000 3.000.649.000 14.000.000 6.079.000 21.12 2.240.544.000.475.000.390.000 .66 261.316.23 298.254.398.927.35 42.rhitungan Peramalan Error et^2 Pe (%) ǀ Pe ǀ Plot Data DMA .633.299.000.13 105.000 -6.100.70 11.730.234.190.829.32 364.200.31 56.085.000.030.844.185.372.144.07 SSE 733.03 545.000 18.570.36 96.000 -3.000 3.090.000.225.395.342.062.000.53 506.000 -51.150.447.560.77 10.439.200.92 310.85 ME 659.363.200.635.234.502.83 88.823.262.000 63. .227.371.000 -2.904.31 6.000.509.963.099. .66 2.313.000 2.70 3.000 149.352.88 14.000 10.000 -11.14 14.06 306.000 14.000.153.177.000 19.478.343.77 12.86 150.835.000.679.466.008.715.000 -6.916.088.674.744.000.000.000.025.98 13.723.000.000.99 14.928.12 53.23 5.35 10.075.000.263.825.000 6.52 224.49 51.88 29.98 .897.246.781.34 164.438.81 6.000.000 -25.825.77 332. - 300.796.86 21.289.34 11.000 790.668.000.843.03 11.489.70 - 190.555.250.037.697.771.000.400.88 8.88 Error Statistik 25.021.854.000 507.000 -7.868.902. - .400.000 -21.146.237.000 11.534.85 24.000 -7.79 1.36 7.610.000 35.124.05 250.06 23.052.39 19.05 63.77 Error Relatif 139.179.763.772.000 29.000.000 6.000.890. .60 179.666.39 MASE 403.000 12.18 21.222.865.000.000.11 100.000 7.52 MAPE 1.32 18.184.640.000 -23.627.469.45 4.460.60 12.000.558.765.900.000 -31.940.000.52 6.872.98 6.000 5.81 174.49 200.538.000 3.025.34 162.792.669.000.000.000. .905.000.000 24.400.14 39.000.45 346.000 8.777.760.206.198.000.022.983.995.92 3.000.315.445.338.000 5.99 50.325.143.029.178.287.600.98 7.258.000 -11.386.000.665.53 7.503.032.34 6.13 23.476.52 4.428.863.07 25.76 3.920.000.18 MSE 619.000 6.982.000 -4.49 35.70 178.000.156. .998.000 .623. - 1.933.521.000.888.000.842.000.000.000 23.000 2.829.823.538.363.83 31.76 271.349.000.

712.76 24.98 1.604.000 8.000 -11.830.03 3.267.876.325.695.58 11.89 10.683.222.001.000.000 -3.169.51 365.834.645.03 1.55 441.468.000 8.000 4.98 399.08 177.855.58 29.55 8.905.060.117.08 3.832.77 5.000 1.000.140.747.000.961.77 1.840.000 1.000 9.409.000 24.98 398.545.29 24.29 8.000 5.98 4.000.326.587.000 8.000 -16.89 42.100.831.000 -10.703.000.444.76 8.57 559.74 8.640.000.767.893.050.854.000.449.000 2.700.000.58 9.263.822.57 1.568.711.365.44 16.774.994.000 -3.787.605.401.000.58 .000.782.428.882.588.012. 80.460.608.74 144.572.000.134.660.44 26.442.51 2.238.049.745.400.675.966.893.

19,031,008,926,251,500,000,000 184 724

Plot Data DMA Perusahaan
50,000,000,000

00,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

00,000,000,000 Demand
Forecast
50,000,000,000

00,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

-

Error Statistik

3,759,779,108
18,601,568,324
339,839,445,111,633,000,000
15,791,986,091

Error Relatif

3.284
12.929

.

475.116.183.141.525.875.491.444 72.184.000 70.000 113.222 142.000 94.000 16 73.672.667 115.268.667 59.319.644.967.000 80.012. .000 142.425.850.413.616.301.556 10 66.272.566.850.327.000 126.543.647.160.222 42 130.176.305.750.333 85.075.667 69.000 98.130.887.889 130.000 143.263.333 116.000 128.111.333 100.697.778 32 133.000 104.428.022.994.778 69.667 74.554.688.908.111 24 128.370.641.704.556 109.889 44 152.540.287.380.283.508.556 12 79.472. Double Moving Average Periode Demand S't S''t at 1 54.667 59.538.335.556 115.667 78.713.008.333 61.783.077.000 142.000 129.000 58.751.843.652.958.300.312.275.300.000 .066.000 .144.333 113.234.111 143.887.327.000 112.667.233.669.500.667 143.183.105.000 69.556 22 94.125.108.633.875.635.200.000 87.363.021.000.620.625.500.141.358.929.100.333 140.594.116.677.556 114.778 8 65.889 26.222 20 75.308.266.926.115.227.825.300.113.408.750.778 45 133.078.717.785.444 79.889 39 124.000 21 93.000 7 26.772.811.667 68.550.266.530.667 25 80.762.746.441.064.750.000 117.951.772.184.780.333 31 114.782.733.325.481.111 34 105.444 61.778.144.012.333 107.186.967.333 28 90.667 120.083.333 58.338.000 115.073.778 38 136.376.000 66.667 45.000 46.640.152.333 77.000 110.950.858.766.635.728.291.188.000 79.486.444 39.000 101.361.955.111 143.908.757.990.827.116.550.333 65.000 58.667 132.145.883.633.000 107.955.308.000 15 92.891.683.691.343.016.476.436.000 124.000 137.000 70.375.667 110.922.444 58.000 118.667 143.222 11 64.058.000.000 111.700.966.938.383.125.000 108.606.426.000 124.667 81.667 .763.667 63.958.576.234.870.575.841.889 36 117.991.667 72.826.047.000 80.000 17 85.220.075.408.075.000 33 114.740.000 80.556 43 144.994.525.702.239.444 37 125.855.333 47.333 23 115.198.023.450.841.400.325.328.000 39.675.413.625.643.000 48.125.036.000 6 48.540.778 149.000 42.778 27 116.211.286.667 55.000 26 98.058.685. .857.425.697.333.487.750.283.300.030.331.841.075.350.311.000 41.407.958.638.385.203.000 54.100.056.475.204.609.583. - 3 53.222 121.000 107.648.635.610.630.667 100.701.111 102.000 103.655.556 14 74.750.064.111 134.700.885.758.144.000 69.000 73.605.219.227.701.975.806.667 103.778 41 160.094.091.433.691.111 62.222 29 103.486.525.102.781.044.420.800.658.107.000 118.147.900.510.575.333 124.778 88.341.000 70.112.658.333 13 55.275.819.332.667 109.400.333 134.678.730.862.674.333 86.222 18 82.556 106.000 101.455.641.889 121.949.444 40 127.222 133.333 9 31.859.603.781.422.615.000 139.951.900.158.333 100.111 35 111.000 49.667 .423.166.667 .355.413.151.287.702.750.333 128.494.357.341.452.050.975.844. - 5 43.477.218.000 54.186.725.252.889 123.000 67.250.333 101.000 48.000 145.780.370.719.359.308.000 83.222 97.125.909.975.000 102.325.889 19 43.333 108.058.408.504.544.000 60.778 104.000 120.587.166.350.333 75.105.115.352.333 70. - 2 36. - 4 84.533.111 30 126.333 121.572.333 135.372.900.300.333 52.

391.667 139.356.439.308.111 49 114.600.000 140.333 48 123.000 147.000 168.000 126.143.333 166.305.616.225.889.358.667 178.750.104.800.150.000 55 159.198.000.222 60 152.908.941.000 135.063.766.671.825.088.374.787.900.007.000 156.000 129.058.967.287.333 47 141.908.444 53 138.981.097.131.581.000.762.337.187.241.804.837.043.889 125.333 171.521.667 127.775.510.556 146.301.333 139.788.550.730.149.920.111 145.195.183.631.938.000 133.300.444 181.667 142.333 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 .214.844.025.667 125.000 130.283.750.822.222 156.083.887.175.179.667 50 141.958.000 176.444 51 158.889 52 122.000 126.667 126.780.958.016.099.625.683.111 56 160.822.947.304.667 124.983.673.494.333 165.208.860.894.333 176.556 57 184.381.166.919.667 165.856.515.333 129.716.333 134.333 157.803.814.000 149.411.997.000 135.000 59 177.778 140.350.547.333 127.556 122.557.000 170.925.325.000 165.816.444 165.031.805.889 54 149.190.920.131.000 126.425.575.419.290.110.590.886.000 136.000 58 167.100.834.900.46 114.827.333 139.000 138.275.255.686.000 139.100.

94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 Total .

416.192.728.445 -928.986.385.205.223 5.000 852.372.112 -3.222 4.238.556 1 103.222 1 147.888 3.334 -369.365.866.709.333 1 91.527.334 17.094.463.083.444 6.680.936.145.899.533.112 -1.786.667 -5.658. .738.333 6.463.930.333 1 71.022.656.667 1 57.223 2.455.805.889 -9.778 11.027.722.334 18.444 1 132.200.334 -10.445 9.112 6.565. .425.144.069.352.334 9.111 1 137.658.556 1 62.977.778 16.313.963.556 -9.778 12.459.015.066.430.333 1 136.556 1 154.738.308.705.019.177.471.223 7.556 7.686.803.847.871.075.334 14.350.986.657.223 13.000 1 112.778 2.864.269.333 1 89.530.889 12.477.197.334 26.238.647.661.968.333 1 81.052.945.555 -1.665.223 13.666 10.666 3.556 1.667 1 56.044.358.963.556 1 73.116.777 -1.334 553.821.778 11.994.474.577.523.556 -6.250.927.336.488.696.358.533.292.968.230.556 1 108.388.855.185.840.556 12.889 4.433.197.633.041.000 8.192.666 1.297.889 2.058.391.201.334 9.333 1 70.777.625.238.947.667 -13.938.358.608.909.223 4. .463.334 9.508.936.727.667 -21.161.333.927.191.577.444 -4.644.133.111 4.444 -246.877.308. .698.889 5.778 1 130.081.325.112 6.927.333 1 143.202.889 1 67.333 -1.223 9.881.633.086.083.579.000 2.943.347.966.744.889 14.778 1 108.555 12.556 7.870. Perhitungan Peramalan Error bt m F(t+m) et ǀ et ǀ .622.198.778 -5.312.912.445 16.842.778 12.667 9.941.277.657.741.247.372.019.973.838.117.052.444 1 55.223 -13.445 -12. .889 1 72.823.969.753.216.855.419.223 4.301.225.334 4.889 1 142.222 1 91.222 12.222 1 92.444 1 98.372.665.778 -12.333 21.225.983.444 1 38.191.334 17.827.112 6.666 19.994.688.983.269.294. - 4.900.477.112 1.519.363.888 1.334 -13.888 12.997.133.793.986.786.385.083.963.211.124.658.549.165.468.667 1 43.667 28.291.889 -5.444 1 127.258.889 14.325.468.778 5.312.864.025.667 28.661.185.019.186.889 5.669.912.387. - .179.334 18.556 -3.308.949.888 10.145.778 1 78.117.667 1 91.065.805.445 81.444 1 121.667 1 109.325.786.300.842.947.873.015.222 1 110.054.334 26.112 4.437.444 1 128.230.580.445 962.793.888 20.383.856.667 9.245.669.941.873.247.366.444 9.333 13.112 1.909.333 1 112.514.778 16.777 13.800.889 4.108.778 5.933.000 902.402.966.223 2.966.625.888 -7.945.041.666 2.798.283.413.716.000 27.805.709.358.208.000 1 143.838.741.877. .216.208.936.655.778 1 142.083.334 9.756.869.334 -2.658.391.619.949.805.445 9.000 8.075.524.065.519.655.556 1 148.623.445 7.335.652.352.974.450.674.622.938.733.335.191.891.297.445 7.556 12.445 16.111 9.516.683.838.069.823.000 11.973.305.350. .334 -19. - .977.488.385.553.680.840.238.651.744.870.556 1 12.778 4.283.969.355.152.112 -20.666 5.352.927.733.958.364.019.450.778 4.000 -27.477.455.352. . - .891.000 11.208.667 .

334 28 187.258.666 17.108.748.569.724.334 29 187.383.334 10 173.049.068.906.233.208.667 -23.308.334 14.922.405.274.334 27 186.551.777 7.916.920.127.808.442.222 5.556 4.111 3.133.408.827.845.984.319.394.667 3.688.438.086.334 9 173.984.713.334 24 184.334 8 172.662.063.533.283.708.112 14.334 6.333.112 14.361.171.349.791.133.334 6.444 1 163.183.334 6 170.365.205.858.334 13 176.308.906.438.087.541.444 1 152.889 1 153.349.233.334 23 183.462.667 1 188.724.334 14.709.911.667 1 132.255.662.333 1 182.980.048.461.033.917.302.000 1 167.777.658.334 32 189.222 5.889 29.080.000 1 124.391.320.416.008.733.334 30 188.334 4 169.394.911.445 2.-6.445 2.334 1 167.481.033.112 8.306.075.358.887.481.526.099.334 33 190.556 4.112 729.640.111 -1.271.872.883.033.334 20 181.894.275.333 23.334 14.283.667 -151.334 25 184.919.049.133.205.556 1 140.666 7.334 15 177.334 14 176.112 10.984.766.222 1 119.283.629.699.900.702.556 1 174.633.334 7 171.778 -5.334 5 170.083.649.783.141.334 .922.508.933.483.334 22 182.130.458.568.972.445 -2.880.263.112.433.463.964.211.667 9.609.422.358.222 1 125.506.334 4.816.223 -15.075.334 -5.334 26 185.004.777 15.889 -3.724.667 9.511.086.658.334 19 180.475.033.889 29.558.655.889 336.958.699.302.508.334 14.205.334 2 168.508.334 -17.391.541.748.422.556 8.667 3.127.667 1 118.319.693.488.000 1 120.334 3 168.916.334 18 179.063.235.294.334 21 181.338.191.889 1 185.166.783.541.158.291.662.583.334 16 178.334 17 178.568.708.080.919.334 31 189.361.705.099.763.151.334 11 174.333 -3.733.334 12 175.797.546.048.233.219.367.112 8.667 5.

147.334.418.334 154.058.583 654.408.183.983.378.689.333.908.398.231.023.334 45 199.334 39 195.334 52 204.508.314.836.107.565.334 37 193.960.334 57 208.334 54 205.683.334 53 205.258.883.334 51 203.334 46 200.772.753.283.280.334 36 192.334 50 203.605.133.34 191.255.208.833.358.856.758.334 55 206.433.334 43 197.585.876.605.558.294.563 .211.958.976.334 40 195.127.334 41 196.658.483.583.669.808.501.334 42 197.033.334 38 194.940.334 35 192.334 60 210.334 49 202.334 59 209.108.334 44 198.334 48 201.334 56 207.334 47 200.608.733.334 58 208.043.482.

848.132.096.41 21.000 10.000.50 93.98 10.000 19.096.63 147.160.853.000.000 7.502.204.969.280.000 -2.000.842.612.241.610.053.500.52 25.014.235.600.71 11.63 3. 200.12 2.175.000 6.300.75 6.000.061.199.153.578.000 14.434.070.84 99.194.334.715.674.718.051. - 250.480.38 7.396.18 2.230.41 48.42 SSE 400.000.501.000 143.949.877.410.000 728.25 14.803.659.699.595.155.400.96 12.559.823.831.02 7.983.723.232.600. . .877.000 -11.144.ungan Peramalan Error et^2 Pe (%) ǀ Pe ǀ Plot Data DMA P .25 22.000 4.000 6.404.000 -7.428.000. - .629.725.771.000.81 444.96 97.844.18 23.427.77 Error Statistik 14.100.000 -6.393.000 12.02 .773.000 -32.000.300.310.000.923.72 35.25 100.48 4.000 -25.42 25.342.339.561.025.41 32.21 11.700.75 835.000 .680. .772.66 4.143.000 4.000.380.72 MPE 39.401.966.625.000.51 23.175.246.50 11.095.462.18 167.000.147.312.595.000.25 21.220.068.325.000.000.641.000 23.000 6.000.483.500.000 18.37 32.000 -10.805.722.000 25.234.000.037.344.96 2.864.500.76 106.440.000 8.448.53 6.73 62.000.000.000 11.487.747.000 -4.580.000.43 164.625.959.373.96 50.000 5. - .12 30.36 MSE 336.77 8.900.260.475.776.815.363.799.000. .641.000 -11.670.911.000.505.660.000 15.335.73 84.221.105.691.900.969.691.000 -8.43 6.358.000.81 51.55 287.707.000.90 12.000 2.18 3.000 -21.90 Error Relatif 75.421.620.813.08 15.43 MASE 221.53 88.017.681.604.099.38 53.76 3.43 19.614.627.000.395.467.079.48 193.000.486.000.000 -51.000.000.220.43 MAPE 732.246.255.500.04 168.673.000.000.287.83 18.000 7.907.84 6.71 96.04 4.98 179.43 5.547.52 ME 365.215.000 62.000 -3.000 -23.19 8.000 12.593.716.277.08 283.19 7.187.760.859.21 301.000 22.900.386.83 150.793.000.646.609.700.856.000 35.017.505.105.268.408.601.000.280.000.55 7.000 3.51 55.830.000 194.000.000 2. .36 21.37 6.700.47 30.976.47 - 7.000 30.000 2.41 10.326.526.000.215.66 125.366.013.000 -6.

44,382,688,143,327,200,000 5.84 5.84
555,474,585,042,690,000,000 -16.61 16.61
15,359,235,945,433,100,000 -3.18 3.18
99,688,076,960,059,000,000 8.75 8.75
235,595,723,514,673,000,000 -10.87 10.87
26,009,206,670,449,400,000 -3.21 3.21
894,372,657,332,950,000,000 24.35 24.35
5,301,020,180,366,860,000 1.66 1.66
304,115,814,483,693,000,000 -11.64 11.64
16,648,077,379,213,300,000 2.56 2.56
197,384,547,655,378,000,000 8.77 8.77
13,872,210,629,219,100,000 2.02 2.02
217,511,861,299,942,000,000 8.80 8.80
75,688,453,356,701,100,000 4.91 4.91
209,706,118,873,753,000,000 9.47 9.47

10,412,402,370,423,700,000,000 184 731

Plot Data DMA Pesaing
0,000,000,000

0,000,000,000

0,000,000,000 Demand
Forecast

0,000,000,000

0,000,000,000

-

Error Statistik

2,755,004,564
13,759,229,874
185,935,756,614,709,000,000
11,696,010,814

Error Relatif

3.294
13.060

.

.

433.157.224.154.111 71.323.613.912.796.526 79.000 62.015.026.627.874.486.567.168 40 173.466.334.516.196.804.464 7 37.601 28 123.690.633 141.269 152.564.459.915 174.366.399.424.845 131.545.979.022.518.074 23 157.000 143.000 94.835.814.335.096.000 80.320.645.494 150.703 136.509.619.994.385.217.184.885.368.667 42 178.070.398 73.391.408.370.932.782.068.014 104.440.000 135.670.772 189.138 35 152.012.000 123.639.170.000 96.661.923.988.639.363.472.442 68.376.042.376.401 32 181.239.453.956.229.113.326 64.575.506.509.630.247.254 162.000 146.680.775 107.864 162.590.263.000 85.246 13 75.509.491.000 158.561 83.000 117.000 73.406.070 87.234.639.891 14 101.869.994.275.331 17 115.776 73.057.977.796.397.451.848.300.372.871 89.802.000 89.053 41 218.242.823 193.000 116.710.655 19 60.000 115.139 72.006.795.246.518 85.557.086.380.000 77.179.492.559.064.757.199.939.745 165.070.754.995.146.920.000 73.042.403.603.742 120.710.776.410 126.906.210.395.776.838.471 156.082.982 45 182.388.379.194 29 141.184.728.143 73.925.625.935.979 117.000 87.945.620.000 149.720.928 99.203.166.765.000 154.707.268 81.916.541.594.696.410.312.757.673.663.535.990.728.000 91.877 73.654 163.060.886 82.453.150.308 156.358.900.523.621 18 112.143.492.231.000 177.000 144.527 164.848.397 97.947.695.996.334.763.000 67.556.405.499 102.445 73.936.654 175.081 24 174.999 26 133.008.435 6 66.465.669.921.547.789.275.906.275.371.300 37 170.995.949.945.790.432 33 156.823.789.295.621 96.859.650.000 77.825 107.645.000 125.215.940.321.372.524 110.896.769.190.592.992.796.553 67.698 30 172.081.397.618.737.750.477 128.912 197.459.864.300.417.741.000 156.757.701.067 113.219 143.474.000 - 2 49.556.025.914.728 11 87.563.123.020 86.000 74.513 16 100.494 43 196.915.582.774.836 98.177.926.278.422 15 125.827.797.966.617.219.612.250 73.990.927.550.267.801.047 71.375 20 102.000 171.968.550.853.639.065.599.856.000 71.134.229.317 27 158.590.037.206.428.956 36 160.350.218.000 72.375 80.429.000 76.657 199.233.485.227.010 98.260.075.079.704.122 69.872.653.583 77.797.253.396 144.351 81.026.758.948 3 72.567 75.124.873.986.408.133.955 134.665.606.237.995 39 170.118.000 131.228 189.544.399.641.724.000 70.417 25 110.158.460.193 21 127.000 141.361 146.000 107.257 72.354.866.804.884.660 8 88.453.156 9 42.818 79.511.481.739 34 143.740.479.500.273.436 113.716.190.000 123.446.000 68.600.871.087.559 139.366 69.300.580.600.442 10 90.071 135.020.633 73.704 .809.532 177.009.514.320.914 104.000 70.311.640.721 71.634.320 153.072.000 73.509.369 167.852 143.026 5 58.008.911 137.499.683.768.966.313. α Brown Periode Demand S't S''t a 1 73.510.638.721 74.165 44 208.196 123.000 70.095.605.000 176.540.208.000 100.779 31 156.007.854.000 91.455 74.313.466.983.114.000 143.873.834.334.148.371.300.147.678.792 140.512.284.048 107.211 22 128.290 72.000 166.332.811.114.634.620.140.493 72.391.837.750.575.000 168.604.321 38 186.185.160.079 12 107.804.810.488 93.384.061.689.905.661 125.035 96.278.353 4 114.025.077.

630.433.286 50 192.304.615.750.505 48 167.200.000 174.433 163.468 190.655.439.319.788 174.874 194.220.218.848 230.829.459.123.000 175.996 192.021.722.127 59 241.847.468 181.828 158.465.512.950 51 216.688.090.803 169.46 155.962.255.625.892.284 224.105.369.748.578.270.355 189.571.035.973 57 252.797.680.548.444.436 227.465.750 161.881.186.378 170.219.956.541.219 194.010 60 208.570 179.760.615.506.321.927.715.000 183.510.773.900.733.000.959.921 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 .206.830.507.180.703.857.307.562.343.929 186.299.155 52 167.101 190.107.489.383.592.310.063 165.925.358.560.953 49 155.177.163 201.000 191.377.173.930.685.680.753.965 176.416.175 185.036.326.178.750.238.777.678 189.490.206 182.250 53 188.971.741.356.061.000 179.940.000 173.493.877 164.494.000 176.673.289 54 204.000 181.985.827.072.715.000 208.863.555 47 193.845.912 188.398.000 180.910.449.619.376.030.000 199.156.655.000 188.725.412 56 218.957 207.913 58 228.488.000 175.246.745.015 167.000 203.860.061.089 172.039.227 219.800.464.000 208.453.960 55 217.816.

94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 Total .

906.86 24.54 26.678.566.67 1.294.500.641.987.20 4.214.441.316 -41.566.47 19.487.834.30 3.707.933.190.646 13.739.599.12 1.04 35.451.764.190.966.15 1 67.15 1 74.946.215.92 1 109.680.15 1 69.083.934.481.045.548. - -312.703.951.160.318.594.648.71 32.107.299 35.456.812.820.633.254.268.896.322.142.241.072.818.30 22.94 41.907 14.090 -4.83 .704.348.232.693.776.63 3.049.299.50 1 .60 1 115.238.136.582.146.266.618.680.601.771.704.143.816.25 1 170.177.365.37 1 63.885.70 19.63 2.481.36 3.33 907.295 23.054.982.957.569.117.933.645.222.50 93.304.683.809.809.114 -3.793.953.842.34 1 179.033.314.441.856 -34.267.94 3.017.94 572.308.303.567 4.027.714.508.903.119.713.472.553.506.240.390.963.266.934.266.231.169.396.221.541.71 3.47 1.335.198.760 -11.222.518.230.370 7.963.23 116.704.119.819.17 3.817 20.83 20.614.196.276.316.29 26.190.56 1 100.196.239.957.00 5.465.47 3.276.083.68 1 164.998.60 1 72.94 1 81.987.511.33 1.351.332.844.143.094.77 3.527.067 -37.519.69 1 156.307.303.307.211.819.690.833.729.245.693.439.335.110.257.439.86 -677.714.351.34 1.683.314.196.905.957 24.258.252.846.237.35 1 68.49 1 139.431.828.724 -3.365.757.517.875.139.589.299.52 694.600.069.52 18.566.042.258.34 37.204.67 27.23 -652.139.393.23 28.124.33 15.828.798.320 -28.330.429.074.165.30 1 147.952 26.446.014.880.793.688.115.951.122.896.30 38.85 1 62.764.017.950 -19.798.045.275.957.972.190.33 7.73 1.29 3.107 -19.267.080.86 1 105.546 -15.94 2.26 13.62 1 192.149.427.17 11.323.03 4.331.472.415.934.316.632.87 2.454.500.324.48 1 128.961.69 14.224.892.999 -19.292.160.50 1 177.256.820.364.47 2.683.115.71 4.17 1.96 1 168.992.74 1.257.089.71 2.197 141.574.69 3.132.703.308.646.704.500 -5.279.510.42 1 146.288.693.323.399.906.050.17 24.695.056.165.364.953.781.022.037.201.765.846.243 -46.56 1 192.97 22.74 49.525.94 1 109.903.236.488 12.056.196.17 19.913.092.600.905.566. .603.298.570.906.543.454.268.600.510 4.464.487.751.272.931 -38.094 -18.646.594.917 -26.546.729.146.70 2.799 -6.217.00 469.885.81 4.833.438.50 1 80.172.54 -198.624.648.541.108.440.86 1 143.109.757.014.78 2.446.133.596.17 2.78 23.133.236.660.614.661.175.283.09 1 97.328.603 -22.174.224.930.665.505.069.77 141.690.036 -16.294.553.278.198.61 1 202.710.440.201.41 1 144.689 49.85 1 68.29 1 98.26 2.773.580.644.18 2.710.906.117.73 3.86 1 166.903.773.558.695.441.165.78 1 73.94 12.484.370.81 2.12 6.04 -232.36 1 165.417.815.789.211.20 2.65 1 100.091.487.437.092.610.892.370.659.50 46.201.815.154.268.30 -47.279.050.396.957.641.232.907.268.067.410.763.542 7.696 -24.240.233.686.001.092.892.686.258.907.339.641.910.60 7.885.447.589.069.799.049.97 3.372. - -402.686.109.58 1 168.689.822.054.218.926.765.10 1 159.94 34.688.710.505.12 1 87.267.03 3.519.897.933.886. 0.197.213.877.838.380. .907 4.674.067.080.315 32.36 4.842.569.214.416.778.030.693.771.041.979.559.929.998.083.87 16.506.759.659.558.13 Perhitungan Peramalan Error b m Ft+m et ǀ et ǀ .816.510.429.862.733.963.275.950 -4.277.594.23 8.042.910.367.425.245.590.126.62 1 196.206.109 22.52 1 82.132.152.774.566.372.364 8.324.942.773.18 45.431.13 1 138.724 -27.566.60 2.298.092.676 -45.751.001.97 1 178.238.531.432 2.

60 5.057.943.817.183.261.800 11 259.737.975.482.487.131.728.497.468.35 1.290.392.959.647.807.112.027.856 23 294.511.330.443.020.501.643.883.512.65 1 209.793.290.266.959 45.031 25 300.343.443 24 297.42 1 192.598.342.645.36 1 190.603.511.870 34.08 1.998.95 1 196.399.269.697.997.512.323 .894.656.997.000.046.182 -5.602.699.710 -20.272 5 242.289.34 1 183.700.083.307.552.369.813.795 28 308.087.976 13 265.483.959.684 4 239.892.658 -29.759.723.451.159.619 26 303.997.326.783.222.959.70 1 196.767.10 1 201.622.707.940.161.408.197.916 18 279.854 28.551.448 7 248.504 19 282.987.286.255.955.618.315.870.354.921.344.076.354.985.925.772.559 31 317.972.90 27.737.435.598.289.574 25.435.185 -14.815.399.328 17 277.046.941.768 -42.710.894.944.605.357.854.934.112.817.708.303.643.964.793.129.08 9.480.37 14.078.870.152 15 271.748.563.37 2.446.096 3 236.107.732.910.85 1 227.762.740 16 274.212 10 256.790.284.402 -12.306.706.513.594.212.36 29.151.340.921.680 21 288.189.400 27.404.735 33 323.662.547.160.919.36 1.13 1 187.860 6 245.654.509 2 233.369.955.387.499.159.647.160.841.815.772.564 14 268.831.912.68 1.404.573.356 -14.33 1 203.113.573.35 34.794.731 1.731.102.407.90 1 230.016.62 2.865.325.674.854.383 29 311.655.307.120.459.188.207 27 305.394.722.885.388 12 262.181.373.971 30 314.750.30 12.587.944.04 1 190.970.33 3.268 22 291.09 1.427.916.00 1.235.389.769.940.767.338.604.450.029.232.997.09 1.154.732.90 1.731.203.274.289.07 45.024.036 8 250.555.255.30 2.078.75 1 191.082.70 20.264.00 28.188.411.738.129.367.392.147 32 320.90 25.910.232.87 1 195.841 -9.70 2.342.95 1 234.840.2.102.744 -1.624 9 253.769.62 14.07 2.60 3.154.549.306.867.998.602.487.27 1 222.171.092 20 285.68 1.213.080.33 42.

499 36 332.263 39 340.230.203.347.851 40 343.439 41 346.730 50 372.073.873.600.809.387.615 43 352.148.887.636.703.296.198 -195.914.413.258 56 389.125.481.378 46 360.916.179.142 49 369.399.677.834.068.022.318 51 375.284.915.811.652.966.554 48 366.254.610 60 401.493.110.706.022 59 398.390.729.161.495.846 57 392.966 47 363.441.020.863.757.336.911 35 329.968.533.027 42 349.34 326.66 1.675 38 337.687.670 55 387.822.494 53 381.906 52 378.091.79 .087 37 334.127.059.152.598.491.790 45 358.440.017.434 58 395.306.543.082 54 384.546.584.233.924.202 44 355.780.

00 2.397.012.105.74 31.00 29.000 23.61 MPE 19.912.31 0.28 0.00 -13.000.58 392.58 9.9 695.850.000.000.561.00 -28.220.87 200.090.000.000.100.000.00 564.000.000.000 52.220.620.313.362.281.000.000.72 ME 736.000.000.000.155.24 4.54 96.466.28 347.496.12 19.23 17.31 38.000.936.24 150.975.922.320.00 7.156.806.000.067.000.27 11.000.831.7 1.016.000.549.00 -12.541.103.58 1.00 38.088.000.61 29.309.880.000.451.000.777.200.87 8.8 617.000.986.412.600.000.190.42 81.000.745.105.008.4 2.000.00 -31.29 0.000.170.900.521.620.000.139.000.33 9.99 7.00 12.00 -26.00 -5.12 15.830.000.033.568.489.00 0.00 -30.480.00 96.000.800.466.385.79 2.99 242.000.392.482.00 2.000.871.610.000.722.653.186.000.92 1.274.087.817.000.831.92 682.000.13 2.29 1.551.140.000.514.58 19.000.296.54 0.303.000 18.243.570.199.200.645.840.819.19 7.46 5.27 .00 -12.31 3.516.038.596.468.00 -31.000.008.000.000 147.000.54 2.000.000.000.613.000.29 40.324.99 2.000.00 -2.000.852.079.050.000.842.450.25 450.00 -40.72 3.000.900.22 21. 0.204.00 -3.000.775.388.00 -21.28 7.00 -5.000.000.40 26.47 0.000.580.00 8.439.00 -15.643.000. .395.216.00 -2.28 31.000.00 12.481.016.623.437.199.22 SSE 374.000.916.000.000.00 19.200.54 300.736.00 4.000.630.000.000.000.000.77 2.820.957.092.000.000.332.40 Error Relatif 2.170.790. .200.000.00 -26.00 3.577.742.745.978.57 350.574.44 Error Statistik 42.552.154.66 17.000 203.000.971.234.856.00 -7.00 1.itungan Peramalan Error α et^2 Pe (%) ǀ Pe ǀ 0.07 15.000.283.99 0 17.246.724.594.50 250.867.842.284.806.00 81.553.259.923.401.983.11 0.943.792.74 52.418.682.23 170.000.11 28.393.299.664.23 1.038.365.206.829.00 -21.00 11.000 16.956.309.835.00 9.47 12.979.57 8.23 26.000.700.000.376.681.349.3 28.42 MSE 14.724.07 MASE 1.600.000.5 494.636.196.46 422.276.44 13.00 -8.77 7.000.79 5.77 400.996.900.545.000.000.899.000.000.160.09 Plot Data Brown Peru 493.514. 0.000.00 -2.36 61.685.708.50 2.000.332. .000.812.1 .000 613.694.179.000.000.29 21. .000.143.000.377.19 19.00 17.000 1.000.012.6 69.442.000.00 61.333.068.270.000 274.33 30.534.13 129.601.00 -19.00 -17.660.000.407.108.733.2 .000.363.31 MAPE 363.36 802.00 -15.940.012.25 12.265.582.09 0.134.000.896.00 7.77 100.66 50.000.

000.000.13 437.268.000.792.477.693.000.95 16.556.00 -0.820.395.585.200.00 -16.342.62 218.000.06 5.716.000.092.713.14 22.372.000.499.57 13.2.123.000.18 1.770.950.00 -2.000.57 737.045.090.406.000.000.544.792.92 16.00 22.907.826.00 16.658.62 9.92 35.00 -9.37 .560.558.000.379.988.78 1.593.763.728.95 3.000.000.000.000.861.874.075.000.99 28.900.413.043.189.000.00 -5.711.850.000.000.240.949.040.831.807.14 95.57 0.00 16.02 1.02 156.338.00 12.215.491.536.680.00 28.94 5.18 16.000.60 2.092.000.554.730.00 -6.768.000.217.455.37 12.818.00 -5.94 664.13 6.302.60 206.00 -6.498.160.00 -13.78 6.99 1.000.00 1.000.443.710.000.57 808.042.530.06 862.769.

000.226.33.779.00 45.900.000.465.93 981.228.79 .

000 0.000 0.000 -3.586.834.903.000 0.55 Error Relatif 0.158.800.537.000.572.507.775.000 Forecast 0.831.000.928.000.831.116.000.000 599.209.634.000 0.000.000.091.000.000 1.811.882.000.000 Demand 0.313.19 593.039.000 0.990.609.000.324.060.040.747.822 24.238.924.000.000 0.532.144.261.572.000.000.870.000 1.000 0.552.541.492.797.708.981.000.16 579.646.000 0.000 1.990.000.000.000 890.000 0.000.741.680.140.779.779.796.716.000.000.590.775.000.000 0.000.792 16.922.300.000 0.000.000.663.945.722.448.117.000.572.196.000.646.000 0.113.000.000.970.178.000 672.328.298.230.000 0.000 1.543.000.816.000.500.363.247.233.356.18 588.12 573.707.459.000.000.11 575.948 19.589.000.000.909.481.14 574.000.17 584.616.000 Error Statistik 572.000 0.336. MSE α MSE 581.608.000.13 572.909.000.576.956.882.000 0 .15 576.000 0.050.000.285.000.017.000 768.176.927 Plot Data Brown Perusahaan 0.

.

.

244.434.826 100.291.154.394.000 99.850.000 54.093.022.687.581.301.704.043.209 6 48.876 28 90.144.139.993 120.984.767.363.000 104.750.591.000 54.466.591.229.250.075.456 120.979 102.782.843.528.850 138.575.547.575.351.442.776.000 123.162 52.211.496 30 126.675.030 61.391.777.401 58.587 129.522.987.400.550.909.980 70.865 88.211.396.519.831.041.002 52.048.660 55.750.728.920 70.300.135.385.370.982.555.663.900.104.039 121.737 78.000 96.423.066.081 27 116.267.124.765.405.713.480.078.172.357.859.974 14 74.246 54.915 98.826.084.918.578.147.856.366.283 21 93.316.691.496.058 5 43.950.345 128.641.336.195.176.943.000 104.041 53.138.777 73.000 53.487.350 107.368.000 130.751.750.101.664.525.095 145.415.418.730.068.252 99.000 90.634 65.203.596.200 42 130.934 47.852 13 55.446 25 80.716.751.589 26 98.487 63.216.073 76.700.000 54.000 56.725.317.000 116.000 52.308.566.432 141.806.810.835 8 65.125.359.000 92.858.827.990.646.058.220.645.644.754.539 59.000 107.308.312.405.000 50.821 35 111.432.721.967.996.000 51.460 11 64.000 73.695.497 102.000.592.924 33 114.044.400.000 129.425.715.750.304.891.000.885 119.350.112.991.211.352.593 92.371 41 160.104.841.826.543.100.184 36 117.047.119 118.682.002.750.890.253.513 54.000 84.583 106.000 65.525 77.311 114.074.949.218.074 54.000 103.117.125.137.423.674.094 51.125.362 96.746.487.120.228.632 105.106.991.043.455.862.219.055 53.894 78.135 127.750.949.172 112.554 53.896.000 53.000 - 2 36.029.050.270.532.246.670.676.880.824.464 78.770 114.475.000 126.806.984. α Brown Periode Demand S't S''t a 1 54.317.252.951.096.000 70.431.408 146.343.229 60.573.930.862.069.446.300.422.765.006.024.308 40 127.557.444 .839.000 67.307.000 122.000 49.259.426.325.696 39 124.061.823.398.218 54.829.340 16 73.697.911.100.075.180.000 85.612.382 94.345 83.679.835.581 122.997.350 4 84.856.639.860.000 114.781.172.000 79.518.066.955.372.000 52.690.000 113.975.706.877.425.936.096 53.610.910.216 44 152.218.197.567.239.745.583.701 72.874.847 112.609 60.288.616.121.575.136.000 64.062.296.872.108 63.679.609.750.853 90.000 90.728.900.140.881.411.797 71.022.286.283 55.324 110.895.275.416 104.019.247.203.382.074.075.800.913.000 105.473 17 85.705.000 63.955 50.804.676 24 128.518.750 53.000 67.669.098 49.445.634 29 103.900.880.750.327.242.949 15 92.525.184 19 43.155.301.052 7 26.706.936 45 133.403 3 53.637.774.102.667.746.815.421.389 23 115.320 100.710 12 79.762 46.011.929.222.888 22 94.246.870.118.825.924.202.291.828 83.030.378 32 133.340.944 56.980.628.103.350.978 105.242 10 66.566.063 139.421 20 75.000 58.050.557.339.606.096.555 31 114.373.141.228.000 109.211.793.009.201 81.941.137 59.965.900.607.000 56.221.849 43 144.384 53.850.415 72.864 50.730 74.000 56.832 53.834.676 62.112.339.771 52.772.500.506.183.070.000 51.780.190 86.692 34 105.967 58.475.153 53.821.472 68.750.143 38 136.590.460.511.801.234.660.730.750.440.729 18 82.755.771 37 125.924.015 9 31.152 92.000 69.781.000 86.051.

000 128.494 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 .440 142.096.587 60 152.015 59 177.900.512.005.731.288 58 167.459 164.000 149.312.374.611.201.225.404 56 160.190.174 151.803.001.000 152.070 135.216.890.812.963.865 124.000 152.940.143.755.889.750.444.287.167.666.286 121.983.282 52 122.489 123.726.000 131.013 125.695 142.866.998 167.701.839.846.740.252 118.195.746 138.719.000 128.674.988.501 51 158.658.300.000 132.805.000 134.787.000 132.000 140.985.558.298 127.866.735.000 137.063.837.159 119.600 116.333 53 138.934.762.997 139.014.161.623.000 127.222.148.328.612.825.730.337.640.625.041 136.491.705 57 184.100.693.044.000 146.403.777.000 127.187.105.043.525.839.635.175.643.352 138.820.458.277.980.791.397 138.491.439 129.597.635.038.406.412.330.839.122 48 123.177 161.303.561 126.710.000.754.804.682 55 159.793.028 54 149.891.359.487.340.965 49 114.176.557.550.837.072.000 129.649.46 114.273.285.192 147.275.798 47 141.138.623.000.381 141.732 131.668.401 139.199 133.187.737 134.775.425.933.212.575.900.917 50 141.495 169.558 120.819.100.

94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 Total .

26 1 123.737.86 1 50.410.363.015.320.393.139.58 1.353.865.458.59 33.02 1 107.19 5.263 -19.712.080.50 73.820.124.955.559.097.382.091.012.003.498.350.29 664.343.70 15.445.002.524.542.821.90 3.492.786.708.942.080.233.81 3.157.20 19.06 19.890.515.323.50 1 .872.645 -3.65 26. 0.167.307.366.21 1 116.40 1 124.099.14 1.852.529.641.09 3.39 25.393.602.419.295.04 2.564.18 16.447.96 1 122.059.392.214.602.543.66 1.90 2.199.820.157.068.180.56 1 77.924.737.440.126.902.355.587.966.72 2.247.573.65 80.513.97 1 80.438.815.472.942.259.613.437.59 2.211.676 10.18 2.890.265.44 1 130.511.979.149 -14.755.23 28.498.891.388 -4.832.048.86 1.990.639.00 342.378.06 1.815.00 4.864.612.839.101.60 1 59.967.175 19.296.865 26.064.386.157.93 2.419 2.517.72 1.316.159.76 1 114.070.333.39 417.363.445.367.86 18.20 -153.378.85 1 49.324 -2.708.576.53 2.424 206.490.957.763.583.524.142.465.44 8.663.267.980.23 1.86 -483.144.118.845.192.943.53 1 53.561.666.70 -33.311.00 1 148.424.700.869.089.209.524.756.979.424.21 1 73.343.686.612.249.102.248. .765.162.60 1 141.865.070.268.543.29 5.242.765.126.794.263.318.972.323.133.102.673 -18.189.03 2.494.613 -28.666.350.877.475.959.327.446.561.988.584.82 1 84.313.068 8.472.58 11.111.794.423.698.079. - -301.700.322.658.837.462.25 1 141.092.575 -14.559.707.562 -13.885.76 19.903.138.907.65 -172.971.251.702.249 5.318.623.04 2.05 206.37 1 108.36 1 71.466.72 2.850.700.412.379.22 1 102.903.575.971.220.553.946.343.106.274.259.602.631.61 12.940.073.514.765.525 6.38 18.398.059.059.03 36.513.645.228.74 2.761.023.42 1.757.350.438.412.331.678 -25.95 1.187.924.16 1 120.675.522.545.885.864.700.082.900.368.180.874.465.005.106.845.707.251.74 30.361.606.882.433.38 -505.142.13 Perhitungan Peramalan Error b m Ft+m et ǀ et ǀ .342.58 1.024.58 1.976.761.466.722.764.249.686.752 -30.249.42 14.612.25 1 58.66 9.996.374.323.015.648.353.097.910 -20.03 8.676.947.171.819.138.212.22 1 55.561.089.945.351 24.939.957.202.545.666.201.355.89 1 130.19 2.770.710.267.466 2.900.813.529.068.606.076.928.748.138.410.313.74 1 79.363.806.086.40 1 60.468.057 -19.29 1 72.419.473.295.313.425.587.645.53 14.78 1 131.247.904.275 18.96 1 50.209.099.518 3.228.561.09 2.083.05 2.462.22 1 144.877.175.556.850.007.500.234.212.623.700.34 1 101.442.911.81 2.81 2.13 14.890.118.406.371.912 15.440.832 -1.707.856.72 24.712.40 4.636 -3.792.389.094.687.980.263.274.257.834.996.75 1 121.114.398.939.270.209.856.500.189.112.898.542. .03 879.50 33.435.307.617.479.961.433.698.648.107.167.86 6.125.360.005.898.142. - -230.188.11 10.44 2.202.248.351.93 28.798 -8.69 1 106.091.517.625.249 5.294.336.929.268.771.31 13.086.397.81 3.81 1 123.76 2.65 20.629.386.440.845.722.700.13 1.568.10 .247.602.170.327.43 1 63.05 1 45.972.208 -33.315.344 3.748.330.908 -11.322.068.440.10 15.500 -4.667 9.071 15.985.472.912.861.263.267.300 -28.479.834.581.234.376.28 1 94.005 36.731 -12.464.14 2.898.112.322.853.533.211.675.473.340.11 2.85 1 73.852.246.912.843 -16.315.676.11 1 53.95 17.201.175.902.111.265.803.241.107.575.40 830.249.792.024.31 509.257.376.627.425.139 17.54 1 50.787.027.927.30 1 46.882 -14.912.440 -33.05 1 105.61 2.

534.474.04 1 139.935.353.93 813.554.499.103 19.458.906.102.002.122.961.229.078.935.17 1.343.250.445.825.881.028 14 196.712.509.706.106.55 1.937 25.567 29 228.32 1 140.51 1 143.525.472.936.616.101.730.788.759.64 1 166.492.779.035.188.282.499 3 173.72 9.59 1 147.075.502.352.730.00 18.738.407.965.269.760.636.895.125 -15.769.443.287.17 33.263.888.562 27 224.371.200.871.798.007 6 179.799.380.515 9 186.961.859.803.988.32 1.989.557 25 220.055.391.875.14 1 143.018 10 188.309.372 -21.035 1.846.313.36 1 137.546 21 211.439.079.512.504 5 177.868.86 6.297 -10.861.624.77 1.392.338.078.863.739.32 1.462.844.296.944.743.249.507.213.371.77 21.411.038.049 22 213.004.687.028.844.595.984.963.275.235.146.764 -6.1.713.958.131.059 26 222.885.356.294.066.04 1.514.375.325.572 31 232.343.551 23 215.146.828.59 2.825.131 33.025.720.494.659.925.339.709.907 20.701.798.60 950.466.075 32 234.59 4.595.024.20 2.445.627.279.038 18 205.450.938.687 -31.166.702.500.242.345.93 1.895.510 7 181.104 -813.745.035.842.686.526.72 1.289.225.865.768.002 4 175.936.702.531 15 198.769.556.982.25 1 134.57 1 153.287.147.604.126.033 16 201.901.407.575.591.885.997 2 171.77 1 139.101.035.597.709.400.813.300.049.761.102.980.958.471.025.070 30 230.70 1.433.453.606.131.577 33 237.350.18 1 149.492.064 28 226.584.763.290 -4.702.875.356.541 19 207.09 1 142.964.965.20 2.462.686.52 2.012 8 184.044 20 209.61 1 171.637.623.656.751.013.536 17 203.345.55 25.719.768.279.087.371.715.425.971.86 1 163.844.712.305.913.471.906.475.023 12 192.623 18.235.063.70 20.86 1.263.20 31.156 -11.00 1 169.709.466.52 10.628 -9.054 24 217.838.012.260.525 13 194.550.627.63 1 141.20 11.623.60 19.507.088.313.600.088.080 .04 15.520 11 190.

292.138.117 48 268.624 51 275.925.679.557.650 -143.047.149.096 40 251.600.041.111 46 264.604 43 258.127 52 277.659.609 45 262.027.593 39 249.775.113.091 38 247.750.588 37 245.34 239.414.614 47 266.312.143 58 290.625.338.434.263.454.209.640 57 288.699.451.163.850.59 848.802.332.800.238.650.132 54 281.619 49 271.363.630 53 279.583 35 241.394.49 .904.577.944.578.137 56 285.413.875.169.067.775.680.313.272.537.700.188.189.101 42 256.213.503.782.106 44 260.388.085 36 243.645 59 292.148 60 294.598 41 254.825.822.288.900.122 50 273.725.924.635 55 283.675.

091.332.00 63.866.000.19 15.557.489.94 17.894.95 29.86 213.954.18 2.073.373.56 642.95 31.427.000.595.000.000.19 Plot Data Brown Pesa 42.144.000.308.00 29.368.500.222.116.000.018.000.000.525.530.686.547.000. .00 19.30 15.700.744.369.651.50 231.011.000 341.00 -31.000.73 300.69 200.561.83 100.63 Error Statistik 22.265.00 11.83 8.000.64 19.000 94.26 0.000.240.386.63 13.69 8.020.00 -12.000 832.31 192.84 3.743.413.500.588.2 .664.050.37 Error Relatif 1.000.193.57 2.1 . 0.000.650.00 2.000.384.33 10.59 150.500.673.731.94 0 114.780.000.945.125.13 432.00 -21.862.572.971.746.00 0.211.000.000.72 1.589.79 0.000.427.00 4.14 21.256.000.19 9. .000.007.432.214.86 9.300.53 10.516.027.015.000.030.000.84 ME 392.48 581.532.454.00 -17.000.295.09 311.00 3.00 -8.719.000.000.719.00 -31.480.00 8.405.000.18 0.00 -26.423.000.460.000.07 13.07 0.867.000.987.18 371.145.000.315.000.00 -5.57 134.300.6 40.141.278.5 253.000.000.83 0.438.000.000.000.400.83 7.41 78.00 17.107.55 17.163.981.993.757.29 MAPE 199.867.000.000.000.000.37 11.688.00 -26.027.462.7 708.00 -19.09 12.771.092.645.015.000.612.085.182.494.13 63.00 -2.000.042.00 2.00 98.00 -40.291.301.992.159.832.941.862.00 37.00 83.486.581.000.380.00 -30.899.932.00 -12.00 7.000.000.26 40.605.3 17.000.000.000.929.000.404.727.818. .053.446.400.60 2.59 2.000.21 83.350.806.063.33 4.252.000.000.48 26.21 MSE 8.000.9 388.000.000.34 28.446.045.000.045.55 250.00 -2.29 3.00 -15.977.64 790.600.73 7.00 -5.00 -3. .000 29.838.049.000.151.144.746.247.740.000.928.324.000.34 0.608.397.000.37 26.874.201.79 98.000.032.200.991.000 273.572.00 13.45 19.000.000.641.431.310.19 8.00 -2.298.351.000.72 5.30 MASE 924.779.000.00 -13.100.829.37 .000.00 -7.608.000.41 12.471.79 29.240.000.410.409.528.000. 0.000.937.14 SSE 208.339.653.000 8.750.000.530.79 MPE 10.279.000 146.141.332.gan Peramalan Error α et^2 Pe (%) ǀ Pe ǀ 0.939.300.8 340.000.00 8.000.345.00 2.50 5.000.797.01 0.238.00 -28.552.000.00 -21.000.53 2.000.337.497.53 30.153.4 1.665.45 5.31 31.690.960.000.53 3.609.417.14 2.60 50.033.651.400.000.00 -15.771.157.00 9.000.01 37.900.370.339.56 21.14 70.407.795.000.18 350.000.

00 1.736.356.00 -4.000.177.000.468.98 5.483.000.07 16.00 -16.101.54 112.000.497.676.00 -9.180.57 391.000.35 661.000.1.242.28 12.000.00 -13.00 22.120.000.000.000.096.446.000.401.891.893.000.000.741.652.682.580.35 47.00 -6.000.145.022.00 -2.063.274.00 17.91 978.54 2.531.627.24 235.989.729.322.98 352.000.00 16.000.000.91 6.136.836.00 -0.000.276.07 1.982.242.281.93 18.366.961.100.086.000.000.02 87.726.88 471.000.93 16.00 -5.990.600.28 .07 17.000.796.02 1.000.88 4.68 13.000.024.312.979.35 22.000.697.07 649.428.840.846.63 9.725.000.822.409.342.982.525.569.00 29.999.00 12.035.502.367.57 0.35 29.00 -6.919.63 122.24 6.135.404.68 439.

142.550.61 .00 50.545.000.300.776.54 991.18.000.

000 Demand 200.876.397.221.000.000.000 690.000 0 .806.994.492.000 300.304.589.000 0.000 1.000.000 486.233.15 314.107.392.154.007.719.486.000.18 321.919.030.810 14.420.000.725.16 316.000 419.342.000.467.806.710.19 324.000 0.54 Error Relatif 0.799.000.683.060.050.000.253.000.448.000 50.000.731.11 314.242.196.774.000 Forecast 150.696.537.660.000.831.17 319.346.753.062.000 100.749.000 0.871 17.526.506.000.719.575.000.143.000.849.588.000. MSE α MSE 317.058.696.13 312.000 0.000.000.768.000 Error Statistik 312.000 367.411.000 0.660.164.000.718.691.000.000.000.000 844.834.860.000 327.000 0.843.660.000 0.000 250.133.517.620.000.801.000.448.000 0.000.840.918.492.000 0.000.000.663.989.000 574.832.920.958 17.805.094.000.164.000.191.000 -2.097 Plot Data Brown Pesaing 350.000.12 312.000.520.473.845.000.14 313.000.953.840.064.905.240.630.000.379.

.

.

115.451.793.033.690.874.188 2.654.087.840 1.064 1 19 60.000 - 4 114.597 1 12 107.000 - 3 72.332.491.921.621 -138.064 -633.095.000 -15.491.874.225 2.063.439.627.393.405.790 1 11 87.801.836.000 163.761.203.812.506 1 23 157.007.000 194.656.006.460.843.549.262.878 5.185.363 1 36 160.804.717.553 3.796.197 1 32 181.485.993.177.704 1 42 178.441.461 1 34 143.190.784 -13.945.000 117.000 38.897.836.102 1 45 182.140 1 40 173.330 1 30 172.160.958.587.025.000 98.869.000 109.264.255 4.202 1.548.575.710.483 1 31 156.399.873.571 1 18 112.099.317.561.275.514.872.080.071.722.652 6.075.000 142.871.520.268.957.653 4.720.973.916.844.445 1 10 90.925.000 117.331 9.511.000 - 2 49.407.300.070.386 6.280.385.439 1 14 101.056.000 70.063.000 58.883.008.885.036.000 75.750.047.000 -23.738.301 3.000 112.025.238.140.915.295.915.691.888.658.065.022.935.602.025.236 3.923.835.380.000 1 5 58.225.809 1 13 75.060.323.454.323.300.582.288.000 174.180.000 173.683.887 1 37 170.757.740.660.941 1 8 88.945.000 43.594 1 21 127.812.669.014.866.111.388.375.084.718.590.000 197.250.720 11.575.979 1 16 100.639.138.320.481 4.430.335.030 617.562.682 1 9 42.000 198.580.275.121 1 33 156.846.013.945 1 38 186.292.397.736.967 3.456.425.120 -13.373.025.635.701.914.000 204.081.812.872.000 111.000 169.472.678.000 157.261.857 1 41 218.641.938 7.4 γ Holt Periode Demand St bt m 1 73.640.000 73.000 96.795.275.061.800 -16.000 58.990.597.078.471 4.377 5.395.416 2.106.100.810.848.492.000 119.056 362.686.763.000 98.351.579.261.560.757.360.409.557.477 1 44 208.608 1 43 196.000 -23.301 4.065.000 167.275.764 7.397.722.060.463.420.015.459.470.284 8.231.160 1 6 66.590.078.372.050.743 1 29 141.275.817.966 1 22 128.930.583.454 1 26 133.739.605.064 1 .966.824.590.358.815 -6.848.945.239.810.391.223.843.000 52.245 1 15 125.000 143.528.440.500.708 -5.000 87.687.372.000 155.705 1 25 110.123.332.026.359 -2.807 1 20 102. α 0.000 158.521.000 144.570.088.860.000 151.000 142.920.000 87.226.432 3.947.797.249 1 24 174.038.645.929.000 49.104.000 -23.411.917 1 7 37.822.690.000 135.451 1 39 170.000 50.000 192.842.299 3.050 1 35 152.620.000 176.973 6.168.848 5.857.534 4.931 -2.000 156.136.609 1 27 158.190.064.672.285.368.229.000 72.702 1 17 115.631.645.000 160.846.824.501.960.749 1 28 123.822 316.092.208.893.566.732.015.170.000 157.064 412.699.790.039.380.

999.489.652.715.569 1.845.041 -5.615.000 189.356 1 51 216.055.769.107.205.860.006.005 6.062.942.399 1 50 192.858 3.030.777.014.293 5.000 205.089.446 1 47 193.906.725.985.623 1 54 204.728.000 213.318.000 237.878 1 58 228.741.715.569.004.034 8.332.785 -1.391 1 49 155.797.000 177.857.559.627.573.273 1 52 167.767.415.174 1 61 1 62 2 63 3 64 4 65 5 66 6 67 7 68 8 69 9 70 10 71 11 72 12 73 13 74 14 75 15 76 16 77 17 78 18 79 19 80 20 81 21 82 22 83 23 84 24 85 25 86 26 87 27 88 28 89 29 90 30 91 31 92 32 93 33 .489.862 2.634.105.756.535.000 193.802.680.499 1 48 167.321.151.717.653.000 233.901.200.586.363.035.263 -1.459 -3.000 183.000 182.915 3.999.426.220.971.416.000 185.000 244.272.551 -3.851.800.505.038.000 234.652.678 473.000 166.596.354.147 1 60 208.381 1 56 218.219.000 173.150.299.071.021.226.310.000 185.465.090.615.623 8.180 1 57 252.910.599.475.715.355.928.46 155.537.672 1 59 241.625.240 1 55 217.673.937 1 53 188.907.776.679.304.860.655.511 10.

94 34 95 35 96 36 97 37 98 38 99 39 100 40 101 41 102 42 103 43 104 44 105 45 106 46 107 47 108 48 109 49 110 50 111 51 112 52 113 53 114 54 115 55 116 56 117 57 118 58 119 59 120 60 Total .

299 17.000.000 -3.245.859.600.779.024.012.330.372.747 20.867 4.663 31.533 -30.965.252.705.740.498 375. .821 63.000 44.555.867 2.141.612 -28.859.160.832 17.559.723.512.773 1.277.523.344.980 27.62 167.467 30.794.275.106 68.210.21 121.943.769.567.22 146.689.025 1.427.807 -35.407.572.000.705.545.193 35.618.709 16.859.000 1.997.922 7.492.118.190.457.000 9.952.266.000.118.208.058.337.089 573.694 4.000.712 8.122.67 160.719 9.611.75 24.709 16.943.21 171.922 7.881.575.950.660.926.523.000.724.840.099.089 329.142.387. .694.062.082.000 3.468 23.000 -20.926.834 -12.223 11.000 65.550.000 10.14 37.431.852.266 12.000.279.808.621.793.747 402.431.598 64.443.640 -23.592.374.550.628 -20.806.654.223 11.994.000.549.532.57 124.792.153.000.358.342.000.166.614.764. - . .963.70 102.296.275.000 1.368.783.431.408.000.852.000 -32.000.578.214 22.000 1.932.408.322.466.000 -9.950.973.559.583.860.877.214 493.799.425 57.012.832.000 2.28 143.470.98 110.727 1.44 161.525.426.561.359.744.538.465.201.000.123.047.742.160.827.419.668.426.668.590.560.315.773. - 49.223 140.370.779.609.148. .196.491.523.476.585.595.747 20.000 1.307.739.000 2.714.051.350.058.093.830.106 8.092.273 -39.218.127.193 1.709 257.630.233.941.000.160.590.982.773.318.583.665.422.354.318.613.760 759.372 403.408.166 161.218 -22.129.000 -77.82 42.548.551.160.499.087 3.453.000 15.468 23.098.370.723.551.901.580.818.33 201.035.34 202.244.904.435.052.000.000 -5.508.564 -33.867.049 1.961.786 -22.785.560.43 178.168 -17.387.694 4.073.47 124.000 4.000.725.877.861.16 175.508.558.459.697.487.082.863.491.355.000 -14.850.497.01 209.457.618.960.980 27.150.730.960.305.786.254.163.049 31.511.175.635.145.960.000.893.427.131 -6.660.865.000 11.793.585.64 158.035.830.812.847.309 19.299 4.497.663 988.950.411.296.491.000.567.631.719 3.000 22.424.712 72.000 -7.370.132.246.946.168.423.415.400.630.092.700.415.081.300.771.461.000 26.770.111.000 4.035.585.57 156.400.372 20.611.877.027.127.813.245.76 164.701.200.594.309 386.241.000.090.388 803.024.57 177.498 19.309 19.321.711.213.425 3.723.000.087 13.598 4.402.833.288 -8.773 1.127.245.014.861.325.255.282.260.760 27.166 12.990.497.388 28.630 2.901.29 155.091.529.360.054.420.089 573.062.800.463.049 31.500.610.500.000 -21.221.723.448 6.282.461.523.929.000.832 310.087 3. - .425 57.465.000 -2. .000 -14.140.549.000 -109.705.660.830.782 22.402.179 -63.000.148.992.831.468 555.734 -12.86 197.000 -89.141.025 2.829.098.675.845.004.000.000 4.32 59.000 28.867 2.773 2.614.614.460.000 2.190.727 39.000 -34.000.393.913.512.059.000.421.014.694 17.499.156.025 1.000 2.294.800.486.869 6.360 23.54 159.66 96.799.139.000.739.588.355.150.266 158.218.000 -18.000 -29.520.443.66 177.347.089.606 29.141.000 -8.223.657.368.617.778.000.000.000 -27.337 -31.048.44 95.551.652.002.586.594.739.782 510.394 -29.660.000 0.232.701 -4.849.096.583.980 734.570.062.000 1.906.821 4.869.401.725.000 13.85 143.091.983.07 74.711.913.000 -23.045.74 39.195.318.288.448 42.95 120.436 33. .298.362.208.000.13 59.000 63.760 27.18 .908.72 149.435.800.426.213.572.73 143.765.000 -65.218.000 17.370 -52. 0.000 -142.628.485.004.869 43.869.306.581.771.000.3 Perhitungan Peramalan Error Ft+m et │et│ et^2 PE (%) .600.598 64.150.533.711.926.520.436 1.179.000.000 -32.14 92.420.688.559.719 3.038.498 19.360 569.831.99 95.467 912.313.480.529.979.739.016.352.205.849.901.555.342.106 8.630 52.935.594.922 56.064.995.015.260.912.296.552 -6.027.549.434.08 119.850.52 44.440.201.606 867.

495.815 1.770 44.180.537.000.169.793.734.089.895 196.784.067.573 312.387.083 256.289.358 32.482.975.675.385 5.105 -14.934.250.704.000 -26.260.615 -5.915.089.130 652.897.741.335.000 -15.391.955.355.000 2.130.000 22.362.097.267.071.58 171.155.989.041.352 293.615.810.068 320.825.810.000 11.052.74 186.458.488.000.694.000 -2.563.196.217.51 193.642 -32.912.501.16 210.936.003 287.000 -8.940.828 284.08 196.138.000 6.447.518.686.252 44.271 323.298.625.344.036 240.498.030.484.570 44.952.778.39 183.695.770 44.387.172.48 237.52 243.211 243.582.124.956 270.177 290.694.537.030.305 276.705 20.922 318.130 273.481.866.915.526 295.915.005.030.367.325 7.608.757.711.848.192 -17.600.000.059.381.808 305.285.723.479 279.764 15.654.156 -20.688.521.674.555.068 17.124.385 245.385 27.908.203.304.512.694.895 14.200.389 215.155.882.764 15.484.770 1.401.823.865.000.300.897.759.000 -12.869.250.079.471.797.882.000 -6.890.004.815 31.604.326.818.061.474.253.325 57.068 17.611.801.300.521.000 -16.051.850.748 315.029.05 252.258 259.460.389 14.652.052.275.956.090.956.086.675 -7.426.295.130 25.608.731.185 -31.399 309.734 251.358 1.620 .965.519.487.808 17.594.298.849.985.565.945.705 4.400.694.172.590.436.000.514.48 160.758.000 -4.000.934.089.882.000.590.55 173.76 246.701 298.430 -44.781 268.844 415.81 179.511.749.740.030.764 243.380.980.168.012.224 306.076.999.389 14.188.217.079.869.050 304.570 1.739.000 17.912.611.654 281.01 220.934.432 262.474.347.096 320.537.866.267.178.000.563.200.196.371.725.188.391.850.508.349.159.158.364.368.697.000 16.875 301.844 20.000.000.640.690.130 25.294.252 2.445 326.694.537.304.652.313.173.000.909 254.705 4.478.696.721.260.782.252 44.838.000.750.043.828.264.182.021.607 265.589.501.000 8.565.289.560 248.434.74 183.793.

571.888 365.173.318 340.904.478.011.701.365 356.681.565.652.584.393.691.459 390.148.143 337.808 395.935 381.797.130.586 376.351.695.714 362.539 359.063 368.347.478.841 348.993.190 354.130.260.284 387.574.283.782.478.329.667 345.825.138.869.099.999.234.808.260.127.043.956.000 -444 .254.739.244.300.295.574.391.761 379.331 -221.564.217.156 401.787.924.982 398.969 334.121 1.914.608.000.745.173.912.412 373.341.031.434.382 44.633 393.457.110 384.467.086.492 343.825.794 331.521.361.237 370.016 351.021.304.

497.6 840.280.9 2.678.749.6 1.270.21 0.57 0.6 23.684.683.463.000 0.000.5 2.000.000.000.749 14.494.000.662.3 27.9 865.000.000 0. 0.000.593.378.076.000.792.948.227.000.1 0.048.900.000.835.000 0.975.000 3.450.000 0.334.407.160.1 5.6 20.767.681.000 0.000 0.094.4 0.740.484. 0.122.178.454.18 350.3 776.840.000 0.75 0.16 SSE 28.770.904.33 450.321.74 0.6 795.986.251.388.8 109.52 0.000 0.495.104.64 8.671.399.9 7.34 Plot Data Holt Perusahaan 13.000.110.813.000 0.000.2 0.000 0.338.524.788 14.932.43 21.5 34.8 1.95 0.017.629.927.000 0.134.277.000.2 2.260.765.72 0.4 89.052.57 MAPE 20.113.9 866.040.44 0.4 1.5 9.000 Demand Forecast .66 0.76 MPE -7.000.000.090.000.3 0.5 839.088.480.911.67 MASE 22.000 0.655.2 5.926.82 0.215.000.99 0.550.000 0.000.1 63.4 770.000.57 Error Relatif 2.5 0.000 0.438.000.000 0.000 0.8 861.7 44.410.757 11.786.509.239.498.5 1.86 0.000.66 2.601.2 1.942.70 0.000 300.2 .000.561.2 32.000.431.9 1.205.29 28.73 0.000.312.4 29.000.951.530.3 2.895.564.375.274.050.895.62 0.100.547.000 0.1 142.350.037.7 1.192.916.000.920.054.000 17.598.000 0.8 10.392.000.000.887.000 0.020.4 864.1 .8 3.375.480.923 4.000.794.8 836.238.982.1 1.000 0.000 0.000.575.6 32.834.2 827.3 930.952.000 0.000 15.698. α γ MSE α γ │PE│ 0.9 9.428.08 0. 0.853.000.13 0.000.42 4.581.000 250.196.54 2.85 1.768.7 1.000 0.900.112.222.98 0.423.5 780.22 0.879.250.194.000 0.101.911.44 ME -3.062.000 0.090.000.000.000.270.21 MSE 773.28 Error Statistik 18.156.146.7 851.14 0.711.1 1.007.784.781.000 0.7 812.3 77.000.000.265.47 0.000 0.07 0.000.32 0.013.4 22.569.6 0.01 400.3 .7 26.14 0.

000.74 300.000.51 16.000.55 11.48 250.08 12.000.74 100.000.000 2.81 350.000 26.000.000.000 Demand 16.000 22.000.01 15.000.000.000.000.000 400.05 17.76 2.000 8.16 50.000 4.000.000. 450.39 150.000 8.000.48 .52 0 6.000.000.000.58 Forecast 200.000 6.

1.193 .

000 0.878.050.242.8 1.114.568.009.000 948.349.163.706.198.681.226.100.4 1.9 1.021.296.224.026.330.348.416.000 765.000 791.000 0.000 0.455.8 0.000 930.187.897.803.152.623.085.655.890.000 865.2 964.000 0.000.201.002.000.022.000 0.5 963.570.864.492.511.000.000.025.000.536.077.666.000 0.154.521.957.000.525.341.000.000.000.000.096.134.339.864.616.6 1.739.000.052.464.430.039.366.000 802.395.000.3 859.115.860.899.939.803.5 1.285.972.652.7 1.026.3 1.1 810.000.841.230.000 759.134.4 908.000.398.452.060.755.000.580.015.307.8 1.3 936.628.000.2 880.751.189.153.307.104.7 0.870.000 827.646.490.000 775.941.325.000 927.000 0.000 906.438.000 1.820.000.600.684.000 0.000 0.000 840.350.061.000.611.144.000 884.000.000 888.668.323.310.000.078.000 0.327.550.000 793.629.865.348.000.992.000.480.8 1.454.025.806.755.909.6 1.502.606.000 0.637.000.2 818.037.000 0.999.350.000 0.256.441.067.000.1 913.150.260.127.000.117.7 1.000 0.298.000.026.9 1.662.234.6 1.000 750.220.000.934.351.770.010.000.020.867.000 0.530.196.000.897.000.159.963.778.000 0.000.285.000 0.000.378.077.970.000 1.000 765.699.000 801.740.067.526.000 0.331.000.000.069.889.724.074.657.814.379.465.000.270.350.318.311.018.208.780.391.000.843.000 0.000.137.947.467.000.224.378.640.091.680.764.764.000 850.000.673.494.680.983.000.793.000.000.600.176.482.854.693.267.265.095.316.000.787.117.000. MSE α γ MSE 865.000 0.326.624.646.725.000 0.861.641.196.000 788.9 0.826.000 817.433.337.000.5 1.840.000.142.000 0.249.452.926.7 1.117.180.000 0.000.695.504.000 Demand Forecast .800.026.300.000.000.000 0.000 990.000.000.928.000 0.341.000.644.540.065.000 0.000.735.000 978.182.728.557.000 0.034.000.4 1.020.095.9 1.776.452.971.000 753.435.028.116.027.172.1 851.

Demand Forecast .

.

257 1 45 133.756 2.000 64.208.079.692.480.859.076.000 124.495 1 38 136.661.051 1 41 160.400. α 0.308.475.750.329 1 30 126.862.075.000 87.921 1 10 66.286.450.713.142 1 15 92.000 86.078.630.421.000 72.989.991.982.726 1 19 43.515 1 29 103.763 4.067 1 7 26.018 1 12 79.053.425.206 3.000 144.377.327.630.828.990.583.672 3.967 8.706 5.773.000 104.301.825.667.506.675.986.022.417.859.000 72.131.211.523 1 28 90.943 6.946.200 -12.923 -4.058.356.728.841 -10.806.875.525.228.000 -17.000 55.100.750.644.000.800.780 2.559.406.000 113.575.636.000 149.859.525.222 1 25 80.659.338.950.327.967.360.550.147.922.183.876.000 43.951.781.211.635 1 8 65.370.218.056.990.806 1 17 85.905 1.850.016.773.729.730.927.541 1 42 130.142.357.350.750.000 115.750.514 3.307 1 44 152.225.075.699.750.300.675.902.416 1 24 128.828 4.400.000 82.680.030.000 129.273.718.606.502 -4.146 1 39 124.000 42.037 442.701.000.794.111 3.009.125.746.225.940.919.153.003.000 -17.843.517.521.155.859.000 145.900.000 105.281.400.566.346.954 1 16 73.781.959 1 40 127.500.722 1 23 115.626.000 104.656.826 2.061 1 18 82.146.125.000 70.212.620.287 1 22 94.553 5.251 3.056 3.934.705.946.000 53.220.525.750.000 -17.416 1 36 117.936 2.841.477.420 1 9 31.352.529 5.809.350 -497.000 -12.625.735 -1.975.241.215.000 111.121.695 1 14 74.548.450 1 11 64.736.692.951.203.566.039 -2.785.000 82.000 - 4 84.385.962.751.300.537 1.726 4.755.597.000 79.570.890.448.794 1 32 133.000 31.784.564 1 27 116.153.159 2.772.000 38.136 -9.000 114.397.640 1 6 48.575.117.487.423.825.028 1 21 93.392.475.930.700.149 177.359.000 116.000 - 3 53.000 127.694.406.778 1 31 114.426.132.000 64.276 1 .900.950.234.628 1 33 114.734.931 259.000 99.968.465.000 36.949.350.950.075.352.747 2.050.424 1.658.996 240.910 3.789.601.000 127.337.888 1 37 125.108.425.023.965.370.583.731.781.815.192.000 1 5 43.915.453 1 34 105.634.091.850.900.859.333.343.887.682.101.644.683.083 1.091.112.125.338.427.707.374.000 142.712.535.770.522.122.757.325.379.000 106.936.000 - 2 36.408.000 51.120 1 26 98.000 119.477 1 13 55.466.144.818.874 2.250.000 86.000 27.575.738 4.219.007.000.455.921.893.070.068.4 γ Holt Periode Demand St bt m 1 54.725.000 36.949.000 54.191.750.735.750.957.482 1 20 75.000 123.715.225.000 141.254 1 35 111.920 2.791.048.000 115.609.826.130 1 43 144.498.000 117.360 -122.

979.412 -4.171.235.657.797 4.445.825.312.331.000.287.033.065 1 61 1 62 2 63 3 64 4 65 5 66 6 67 7 68 8 69 9 70 10 71 11 72 12 73 13 74 14 75 15 76 16 77 17 78 18 79 19 80 20 81 21 82 22 83 23 84 24 85 25 86 26 87 27 88 28 89 29 90 30 91 31 92 32 93 33 .625.156.439.367.889.322.078.063.538 1 50 141.000 133.557.043.000.803.000 170.000 179.000 135.208 2.722.510.000 172.000 129.149 1 55 159.000 174.237.425.985.758.000 135.300.583.652.000 122.625.000 138.204 798.107 1 60 152.426.474 -1.575.856 1 49 114.982.000 127.000 150.581.932.680 1 48 123.845.837.089.968.550.582 7.762.888.900.315 1 52 122.376.309 -2.929.100.209 2.186 1 47 141.972.000 134.140.513 2.379.572 5.063.115 324.804.177.392 4.652 1 54 149.131.000 156.421 1 59 177.100.843 1 51 158.073.993.876 -2.750.892 1 53 138.777.524 -1.395.900.46 114.866 6.790.501.787.531.577.416.337.167.762.775.000 141.914.195.427.195 1 58 167.844.053.310.190.191.275.920.363.189 1 56 160.187.225.703.482.911 1 57 184.

94 34 95 35 96 36 97 37 98 38 99 39 100 40 101 41 102 42 103 43 104 44 105 45 106 46 107 47 108 48 109 49 110 50 111 51 112 52 113 53 114 54 115 55 116 56 117 57 118 58 119 59 120 60 Total .

715.197.068.219.788.000.784.317.998.286 15.760.189.680.428.729 559.534.250 37.545.400.461.544 6.968.033.550.776.945 -22.051.055 511. - 35.891.096.412 29.143.050.898.327 20.731.918.915.893 5.000.483.052.172.128.238.028.718.524.954.524.852.153.311.670.249.247.069 1.290.066 9.000 54.344 -9.000 88.429.528 9.972.000 147.247.428.894 7.255.604 -6.000 70.794 47.000.988.252.419 -4.532.502.534.089.051.740.499.183 221.412 885.456 14.894 2.463.680.093 17.593.548 -26.197.000.706 -23.189 42.579 -16.540.296.793.294.472 -9.980.530.896 14.442 4.707.000 107.946.893 5.185.656 9.600.758.787 8.089.771.542.068.075.631.489.411.000 105.186 498.000 130.296.000 91.544 2.091.000 35.399 47.920.112.840.228.225.644.775.552 1.067.312.508 20.504.499.518.180.326.129.515.130.421.870.000 118.000 115.050.375.904. .127.051.000.120.442.695.834.153.565.840.000.921.000 27.000 109.943.748.457.383.553.000.368.000 125.149.905 -16.039.800.000.317.245.326.578.694.738.653.895.364.351.455.590.999.250 6.430.692.318.600.071.122.589.568.290.716.794 2.700.534.153.322.680.877.072.604.695.457.425.083.700.489.004.803.782.000 2.280.279.622.072.000 -48.262.000.920.000.588 -29.508.418.514.346.740 21.173.916.120.939.847.201.780.720.000 43.602.403.000 81.403.421 16.000.000 43.383.066 3.000 117.552 1.794.012.363.000.549.656.127.508 20.653.000.247.503 957.701.442 24.802.000 144.000 188.090.005.589.086.000.000 87.740 474.541.723.313.074.078.684.870.379.483.440 17.252.806.620.033.748.109. - .894 2.771.571.599 -21.414.870.000.000.921.729 23.847.321.645.053.286 226.896 221.787 8.316.606.491.747.198.416.536.400.604.044.830.776.762.042.456 14.792.189 1.294 23.000 130.508 402.643.273.306.322.823 623.491.662.000 91.340.599.663.000 68.072.581 23.873.270.396 6.290 13.873.383.949.729 23.663.600.966.000 120.503 916.275.000.000 123.321.776.134.560 -17.093 313.655.327.893 31.503 957.224.156.183 14.000 114.524.581 4.296.421.692.447.000.311.546.558 -4.000 70.456 200.421 263.787 77.987.327 20.991.551.998.183.112.792.294 530.551.189 42.225.327 421.939.633 140.713.997.620.480.757.000 28.528 88.040.312.991.830.775.022.385.000 105.000 105.177.934.501.701.429.298.419 39.934 -3.715.824. 0.186 498.551.095 16.726.000 153.972.878.3 Perhitungan Peramalan Error Ft+m et │et│ et^2 .137.758.593.290 175.177.000 48.534 2.356.711.205.055 22.710 -13.656.304.265.694.964.993.463.000 89.656 88.000 .714 -15.943.896 14.186 248.173.733.172.240.000.000.091.552 2.260.774.164.000 114.033.890.409.000 75.900.898.275.541.000 131.394.000.515.093 17.396 39.164.350.784.401 21.823 24.000.880.582.606.183 14.394.193.776.379.300.440 313.206 -47.364.252.095 281.577.397.908.109.581 -39.304.807.515.614.980.140.472.830.979.742.599.000.229.853.452 26.401 454.000.039.000.416.260 -21.807.711.878.000 148.270.197.399 47.247.119.602.720.662.515.069 1.776.942.000 128.000 188.250 6.160.052.204.766.557.626.140.363. .534 2.000 31.782.371.000 116.240.290.713.919.825.698.399 2.534 5.000.156.828.793.996.177 -24.290.035.400.202.140.593.674.074.000 70.700.452 679.749.825.542.223.434.544 2. - .000 32.078.722.870. .834.536.000 17.536.419 1.801.760.291.571.069 1.633 11.900.682.456.633 11.

793 11.194.814.026.993 15.855.339 178.007 -3.000.070.589.081.667.746.679 1.225.255.003.318 1.000.856 -13.181 33.593.600 186.597.385.845.011.231.964.439.000 185.442.264.969.416.296.410.942.712.000.524 18.013 5.844 225.163.229.003.549.560.651.171 235.871.517 215.289.287 3.191.343.778 223.000.851.000 174.491.000.400.776 10.163.558.000 144.928 196.133.000 117.124 202.682 -32.404 180.956.236 237.343.993 3.660.197.909 227.478.104.281.000.388.385.599.935.851.899.000.970.307.881.679 32.960.000 180.877 10.741.345.964.318 32.080.231.237.735.774.000 178.270.596.222.773.046.561.625.421.281.919.578.354.020 13.339.966.942.666 188.289.098.000 134.237.874 -23.229.076.735.224.952.721.000 136.189 205.147.947.339.864.280.000 161.959.465.867.255 207.793 126.818.582 217.535 184.987 -5.293.019.767.400.920.955.000.225.828.589.856.746.504.776 120.000.320 209.000.278.409.614.631.000 154.123 -10.037.240.255.000 125.020 13.776 10.862 194.483.848.417.345.947.280.652.524 18.287 10.526.713 221.521.524 352.386 211.194.180.238.106 233.583.515.700.037.797 192.469 182.312.823.290.181 33.647 219.013 33.000.565.973.746.767.273.862.480.320.683.948.040 231.731 190.697 23.302 239.948.679 32.144 169.411.347.636.993 198.972.224.181 1.000 127.545.126 23.044.793 11.454.212.578.144.222.877 107.273 176.287 3.212.451 213.762.000.759.866.438.038.705.920.339.697 536.906.683.331.710.850.787.338 223.405.303 -23.767.735.020 176.568.745.722.499.528.623.186.872.345.859.085.945.281.812.290.222.058 200.860.503.000 141.571.301.662 -14.500.367 .514.494.352.506.289.060.385.561.126 544.752.186.975 229.409.872.000 131.061.000 134.916.492.338 14.800.301.144 13.507.956.526.281.

532.867.603.428.214.168.576.415 274.164.042.498 246.843.873 289.807 287.825 256.069 295.988.891 258.087 264.538.564 248.611 281.022 262.153 266.378.683.480 276.878.653.988.433.977.212 932.642.629 250.433 244.469.600.148.790.004.769.134 -165.950.284 270.202.218 268.084.757.202.416.523.742 285.648.938 291.208.004 293.956 260.324.416.763.271.098.917.324.983.312.987 24.321.095.093.318.676 283.362.760 254.897.629.695 252.110.545 278.000 .184.873.309.938.087.255.000.349 272.543.057.736.241.217.422.

291.000.12 0.874.603.000.484.121 4.494.39 0.6 434.000.078.73 -8.000.52 0.837.5 -34.598.000 0.413.932.000 0.28 0.398.1 -145.000 0.180.000 0.273.66 34.99 79.000 0.000.24 0.000.586.944.236.000.175.5 0.2 1.31 64.102.000.000 0.73 2.51 2.21 14.5 785.354.5 427.000.389.23 -21.59 9.433.225.000 .000 250.85 0.7 44.62 Error Relatif -2.135.911.000.133.000 0.1 592.96 MASE 16.1 952.7 443.386.110.3 0.92 27.000.39 -2.000.15 0.1 . .564.013.293.000.884.48 14.5 0.99 0.67 18.895 11.2 622.264.95 0.15 21.651.092.075.888.939.76 32.49 0.35 15.230.000. 0.22 29.1 0. .220.322.29 110.619.26 10.1 2.51 ME -2.2 -32.8 474.1 64.001.422.28 145.000 0.976.55 1.23 2.000.829.747.398.000.4 423.000 0.333.465.899.52 0. .660.943 -14.8 455. 0.774.112.74 4.245.490.627.73 0.55 14.062.974.7 469.9 -7.7 675.448.654.55 Error Statistik -18. α γ MSE α γ PE (%) │PE│ 0.088.22 1.873.000.000 0.000.48 SSE 20.6 -32.341.191.237.661.000.18 11.59 0.38 3.459.777.667.628.39 22.828.89 0.3 .000 0.9 9.74 2.2 459.000.32 7.247.94 32.000.300.000.549.776.8 627.7 1.269.765.483.000.000 0.612.39 0.000 0.66 0.000 0.000 0.67 2.890.72 21.29 0.55 MAPE 21.4 -30.20 0.040.058.4 481.044.752.5 -9.152.209.62 4.515.92 0.682.000.000.512.649.95 MPE -7.525.000 0.271.000 0.000.6 0. 0.24 89.000 15.99 2.000 0.664.801.922.477.520.524.6 -21.7 26.000.000.20 30.21 Plot Data Holt Pesaing 0.073.3 521.000 0.4 0.000.8 3.99 350.349.641.000.9 1.578.72 14.95 8.85 5.297.000.128.944.307.039.3 -79.5 465.9 471.4 -89.32 29.000 0.94 0.96 0.9 589.308.9 476.000 0.26 0.501.18 MSE 424.3 1.6 -24.127.96 1.2 .301.96 17.72 4.808.000 17.6 464.000 0.89 44.000 0.38 0.2 -5.73 9.49 1.327.000 0.2 0.158.000.471.35 300.000 0.268.702.12 24.000.604.8 -110.644.4 903.485.000.6 724.353.3 428.000 0.3 -27.301.4 22.000 0.95 26.987.502.76 0.31 0.8 10.896 -14.

000.000.000.21 -12.000 2.000.45 16.000 -4.000 11.000.000.000 -8.45 -26.45 16.000.40 8.65 11.000.75 200.75 26.03 2.45 -2.000.000 16.80 8.80 2.03 17.15 -15.03 300.15 4.21 8.88 50.46 6.80 6.000.000 23.000.80 150.000.000 -6.000.000.17 12.88 6.65 -16.46 15.44 0 .17 100.03 23. Plot Data Holt Pesaing 350.40 250.44 17.

-453 1.204 .

MSE α γ MSE
481,564,413,858,580,000,000 0.1 443,317,457,392,749,000,000
417,970,335,886,030,000,000 0.2 445,857,681,012,794,000,000
410,969,469,896,310,000,000 0.3 467,137,247,076,806,000,000
417,753,358,317,955,000,000 0.4 493,764,076,197,448,000,000
429,547,641,976,554,000,000 0.7 0.5 523,323,226,106,985,000,000
444,465,717,449,581,000,000 0.6 555,171,977,993,192,000,000
462,138,956,288,629,000,000 0.7 589,227,367,801,828,000,000
481,965,571,904,963,000,000 0.8 625,793,755,592,417,000,000
503,041,447,077,981,000,000 0.9 665,508,086,295,965,000,000
442,675,223,171,051,000,000 0.1 464,929,323,435,604,000,000
412,109,675,277,290,000,000 0.2 479,326,367,554,676,000,000
417,418,323,099,282,000,000 0.3 509,117,559,466,511,000,000
431,548,193,126,790,000,000 0.4 544,409,099,873,059,000,000
449,428,777,536,852,000,000 0.8 0.5 583,750,806,186,730,000,000
469,677,178,967,881,000,000 0.6 627,176,906,312,398,000,000
491,452,047,875,317,000,000 0.7 675,289,198,038,825,000,000
513,996,478,542,487,000,000 0.8 729,059,372,042,922,000,000
536,733,741,379,694,000,000 0.9 789,712,268,613,398,000,000
434,359,729,326,444,000,000 0.1 497,893,773,251,187,000,000
423,151,589,746,721,000,000 0.2 524,366,421,236,226,000,000
436,873,259,042,438,000,000 0.3 564,925,282,214,180,000,000
456,994,888,538,308,000,000 0.4 612,319,175,046,769,000,000
480,042,940,226,098,000,000 0.9 0.5 666,052,488,220,415,000,000
504,877,616,111,102,000,000 0.6 726,908,558,629,451,000,000
530,860,607,647,147,000,000 0.7 796,191,937,241,067,000,000
557,636,263,383,774,000,000 0.8 875,525,097,443,889,000,000
585,131,333,797,083,000,000 0.9 966,742,542,422,674,000,000

saing

saing

Demand
Forecast

530.961.430.700.000 49 259.211.874.913.440.625.474.000 177.889.763.604.000 36 399.972.669.096.427.198.683.306.000 784 3.000 28.750.000 97.520.925.000 129.000 1849 8.63 42 178.345.140.42 5 58.397.000 75.914.420.524.10 46 155.050.929.920.920.801.716.130.150.824.725.000 38.625.838.966.026.633.503.684.77 41 218.000 102.395.841.525.300.000 100 905.180.000 12.000 166.388.167.261.857.185.921.169.05 9 42.064.781.956.807.835.02 2 49.64 27 158.170.128.766.083.84 33 156.114.850.600.000 4 99.000 17.393.206.000 155.791.095.219.320.201.399.555.415.071.82 8 88.796.000 33.146.000 198.360.000 169 979.303.120.582.000 484 2.553.24 15 125.880.24 30 172.200.757.514.500.920.190.240.321.797.605.51 28 123.289.000 1.239.081.000 118.565.062.295.000 625 2.388.44 21 127.620.694.11 16 100.759.275.848.000 81 386.397.000 86.775.000 -19.000 107.000 44.645.538.000 182.555.829.734.000 70.000 -14.000 60.457.299.720.060.000 289 1.296.945.15 3 72.243.97 32 181.91 25 110.935.945.845.250.039.000 161.417.677.088.000 123.915.96 .300.160.770.008.104.000 961 4.710.000 196 1.890.964.000 113.57 35 152.500.025.522.000 441 2.714.840.467.475.259.403.127.000 49.346.616.810.000 -9.235.874.000 134.620.908.807.817.590.000 1225 5.980.290.608.019.956.23 45 182.059.742.125.000 1156 4.587.717.000 145.000 65.160.025.575.750.267.061.459.833.37 44 208.329.232.77 26 133.143.678.58 20 102.239.587.848.972.760.025.000 150.000 54.639.720.000.948.614.314.405.000 729 4.000 1296 5.264.03 39 170.713.374.000 203.514.000 9 218.000 -30.919.275.182.000 1 73.613.070.000 64 706.123.804.150.101.176.208.898.690.30 37 170.651.000 6.425.590.485.000 81.749.866.523.974.372.527.756.945.10 31 156.409.50 43 196.395.399.103.000 1764 7.745.335.485.000 2025 8.367.391.580.943.452.988.231.000 1521 6.000 841 4.000 187.910.361.443.000 91.023.17 23 157.000 -35.836.196.198.000 256 1.000 676 3.320.98 17 115.693.460.38 14 101.000 25 290.095.772.000 400 2.323.90 40 173.70 34 143.71 19 60.627.407.081.000 22.Periode Demand t^2 d.78 11 87.000 144 1.548.686.935.977.878.457.000 324 2.000 1024 5.000 361 1.391.566.515.960.672.545.368.385.000 2116 7.000 225 1.222.895.335.050.t F=a+bt 1 73.120.998.333.157.701.000 -3.554.37 29 141.685.153.000 121 963.990.809.877.65 12 107.28 4 114.885.450.324.000 1444 7.000 139.838.190.871.491.853.490.024.795.629.410.000 529 3.892.91 10 90.260.293.168.167.000 1600 6.652.863.04 24 174.620.470.248.920.251.942.207.661.135.575.000 1936 9.546.000 16 459.000 193.825.000.400.51 13 75.382.380.297.702.282.451.049.000 1089 5.850.873.876.497.015.000 171.365.006.740.813.55 6 66.633.006.040.410.181.000 1369 6.007.000 -25.000 900 5.571.087.869.757.735.790.17 38 186.899.000 576 4.968.940.588.491.69 7 37.595.000 1681 8.112.44 36 160.84 18 112.623.775.31 22 128.

680.63 57 252.845.973.766.391.434.611.005.15 83 400.465.49 58 228.030.079.49 73 347.000 2916 11.48 88 427.734.489.643.310.392.08 76 363.859.944.035.655.134.618.03 54 204.035.748.000 2704 8.88 85 411.634.35 74 352.594.168.000 3600 12.897.94 92 448.000 251.56 50 192.747.228.651.471.144.787.000 2401 7.615.000 3249 14.02 69 326.000 2500 9.247.849.365.648.038.721.431.725.603.889.136.166.902.702.586.960.308.750.715.578.000 2209 9.639.68 94 459.21 90 438.681.723.30 52 167.865.456.09 61 283.910.000 241.47 193.876.61 87 422.82 78 374.291.000 225.811.000 209.094.007.037.000 267.68 79 379.533.050.037.102.202.000 219.491.62 72 342.857.42 66 310.570.75 71 336.619.941.198.000 273.522.881.324.070.562.423.219.325.000 278.249.718.670.56 65 305.710.16 68 321.275.860.416.463.554.365.320.720.207.36 59 241.056.43 51 216.70 49 155.29 67 315.55 80 384.328.520.715.575.726.092.89 70 331.28 82 395.000 235.595.397.715.029.812.014.881.586.81 93 454.283.027.69 64 299.263.359.660.923.000 230.673.35 89 432.424.000 2809 10.439.808.439.000 3025 11.500.021.304.940.683.744.000 2304 8.597.08 91 443.758.22 75 358.355.554.447.321.997.231.130.971.255.909.327.021.873.000 214.650.005.334.965.844.96 62 289.186.013.482.090.800.797.980.199.838.054.028.615.295.500.618.54 .742.694.006.224.16 53 188.489.000 246.000 3136 12.000 262.270.000 3364 13.263.76 56 218.908.152.000 2601 11.101.23 60 208.01 84 406.291.831.460.986.160.83 48 167.165.715.360.75 86 416.488.512.113.105.220.184.952.376.582.418.780.95 77 368.313.037.82 63 294.740.89 55 217.160.230.498.155.071.985.297.300.134.000 3481 14.000 257.42 81 390.455.069.176.316.225.779.715.

843.67 109 539.406.914.07 Total .322.348.972.778.627.101.61 102 502.47 103 507.470.930.340.294.643.766.907.690.017.774.74 101 496.200.552.133.94 107 528.165.192.143.059.906.682.733.069.495.584.385.045.775.27 112 555.87 115 571.974.28 97 475.07 106 523.00 114 566.33 119 592.068.197.40 111 550.487.423.356.73 116 576.80 108 534.635.487.343.14 113 560.714.34 104 512.996.648.47 118 587.004.217.14 98 480.262.922.712.036.358.21 105 518.60 117 581.20 120 597.449.479.796.669.326.01 99 486.053.616.648.061.87 100 491. 95 464.364.080.332.939.038.875.782.455.428.209.817.122.619.754.746.41 96 470.54 110 544.

756 303.911.390.508.871.000 75.100.156.911 7.823.113.568.338 6.748 1.305 25.331.388.672.267.302.103.517.475.019 12.140.628.801.930.240.291.324.935.390.323.384.092.270.262.199 1.538.845.981 -3.000 129.600.921 109.871 77.895 2.427.304.629.542.921 -109.242.303.618.061.662 -78.425.600 2.186.213.356.904.364.390.000.323.000.790.024.854.630.849.680.000 155.707.500.938.298.678 -87.000 134.557.228.358.236 -85.238.324.383 -56.777.640.967.322 7.040.572.826 -15.574.384.235.989 47.074.472.956.193.000.071.842 4.469 37.892.942.000 139.000.523 -47.969.850.883.339.703 16.877.137.617 3.000 -3.549.329.842 16.061.027 2.763.000 193.849.297.892.587.703 16.060 -134.000 97.153.211.397.419.619.810 -67.528.310.679.570.264.610.000 60.000.174 15.539 -56.977.755.000.491.174.877.808.000.634 -80.000.305 658.863.887 28.703 259.684.861.473.942.171.235.756.910.000.878.050.977.092.773 -72.667.232.000.639.296.000 123.000 171.311.545.089 -86.810.931.589.100.932.708.060 134.182 3.255.231.914.013.077.890.208.555.000 54.120.913.676.445 1.937.298.425.000 113.072.000.255.000 118.000 49.608.760.009.550.583.358.000.000 33.634 6.503.941.007.324.027 52.571.000.210.574.390.423.896.329.199 40.289.000 -9.281.190 67.082.240.330.322 87.960.871 8.982.733.347 9.000.000.764 7.476.000 6.370.190 4.617 56.853.373.139.331.911 86.827.875.210.740 461.939.962.566.314 32.762.000 -30.610.457.977.921 12.903 7.063.608 5.043 57.000.481.000 145.956.392 -75.000 22.410.154.160.430.732 1.684.035 339.000 107.772.000 -14.714.310.510.169.600 54.517.615.080.296.413.797.968.497.000.554.781.989 2.957 -57.523.717.887 817.570.641.416 -14.461 3.432.843.075.000.161.314.393.129.000 81.903 86.303.000.807.252 -36.425.047.818 -57.892.166.654.012.178.581.261.061.000.625 36.472.913.854.000.051 70.703.654.486 -75.476.219.832.000.211.703.748 36.003.635.303.089.057.009.859.956.319.990.437.222.881.000.882.601.813.691.166.717.495.695 -25.842 4.693.686.602.691.250.311.105 -52.361.408 -14.753.051 4.356.991.740.121 -10.006.360.458.089.620.620.921.584 14.587.290.000 44.103.881.744.666.345.072.199.653.989 47.174 252.461 56.541.330 66.040.486 5.756 92.006.971.229.610.104.159.749.364.481.882.000.701.524.974.269.400.867.443.548.000.000.282.105.000 12.478.775.775.548.773 5.000 198.829.968.557.500 65.913.592 223.315.300.874.000 166.167.573.500.760.542.541.000 86.635.379.614.698.000 150.558.647.414.022.863.166 7.182 57.678.446.409.712.400 -54.314 1.714.914.364.541.557.311.157.666.459.268.113 -28.732.879 106.198.647.716.548.000.000.000 187.019 3.547 -3.260 -21.338 78.527.200.268 -1.735.324.973 -52.588.149.672.571.339.301.557.314.555 -41.176.244 -303.103.893.614.075.893.170.850.762.450.729.060 18.000.347 -98.732.302.072.947.360.110.834 -7.732.265.904.000 17.047.278.676.764 85.210.734.538.604.875.303.436.732.497.508.698.000 203.129 -8.000 -25.652.276.347 98.000 177.035 18.895 52.097 -86.199 -40.584 223.686 -32.000.437.743.014.376.000 38.651.711.947.880.192.453 3.377.000 .000 28.164.324.880.391.694.000.226.477 47.900.727.863.544.670 -66.773 72.712.000.823.241.241.740 21.826.477 2.000 -19.971.923.375 -36.000 70.000.000.135.477.453 15.884.927.608 75.375.028.895.457.525.000 91.939.732 2.614.531 -37.470.592 14.039.940.843.157.949 -70.000.714.043 3.166 51.583.330 4.928.832.168.829.406.000 182.445 41.900.000.937.229.364.772.038. Forecast et ǀ et ǀ et^2 -35.000 161.251.735.019.827.083.419.921.884.060.470.105.201.375.888.367.100.486 75.879 10.634 80.625 1.154.880.901.965 -18.000.850.525.253.998.659.666.000.861.000.000 1.469 1.000 102.

472 459.037.844.993.000 225.711 68.000 278.145 10.006 70.068.014 321.456.071.787.743 390.859.723.000 262.050.312.309 363.850 4.859.760.986.944.270.421.174.137 1.162.030 395.220.360.456.747.554.000 273.424 14.563 2.249.787.000.636.579 294.327.276 15.526.571 34.940.970.153 305.375.044.376.294.294.071.351.902.230.185 454.697.313.573.681.998 52.512.941.440 310.812.660.014.573.284 42.011.480.444.651.850 64.424 14.000 214.276 245.155.418.007.005.858 1.707.719 31.317 400.397.787.391.102.000.759 .711 68.586.554.909.630.006 70.866 299.312.998 2.097.424.701.086.000.069.715.000 246.633.563 46.263.262.231.912.448 347.000.779.650.683.439.000.705.636.858 38.719 31.898 448.031.000.488.092.000 267.000 251.044.000 230.325 438.695.162.291.293.397.068.639.597.355.290.618.207.159.911.587 331.632.950.165.070.614.339.050.375.228.874 336.923.000 257.489.969.527.292 289.561.973.000.727 315.071.719 989.491.294.675.425.482.797.166.908.563 46.604 406.038 432.850 64.011.970.137 32.284 42.101.328.000 235.293.675.355.998.561.355.145 10.456 384.265.571 34.000.000 283.000 219.161 342.109.205.949.709.890 411.242.522.748.000.744.186.137 32.397.560.011.619.571 1.169 379.028.277.533.359.006 4.038.186.858 38.998 52.464 422.199.702.525.432 1.432 39.000.504.000.413.228.114.911.673.735 352.000.050.766.276 15.881.867.198.145 108.445.460.666.595 368.000.250.882 374.134.711 4.764.834.011.000.086.177 416.865.339.436.585.392.370.709.220.480.782.666.736.295.456.444.834.134.876.740.071.022 358.260.780.301 326.612 443.209.113.811.034.050.460.808.432 39.424 197.334.575.071.520.110.000 241.797.284 1.439.751 427.618.965.838.

227.070 581.294.487.054 507.682.488 534.778.817.101.133.669.843.218 -1.690.746.428.333 475.636 555.193 491.068.059.046 470.449.036.628 518.584.441 178.080.470.343.648.552.197.482.939.536.907 486.262.907.733.326.322.775.783 576.357 587.714.616.915 523.923 560.464.775 539.648.210 566.974.455.349 550.358.038.386.000.423.931 597.364.165.017.076.004.122.062 544.620 480.000 .767 502.406.143.737.496 571.425 2.712.972.996.644 592.385.341 512.912.201 528.754.426.796.452.476.000.480 496.875.

107.694 -80.51 110.000.83 12.25 2.000.000.25 300.05 69.18 27.27 84.66 SSE 54.08 2.07 -113.70 2.937.81 -48.000.58 134.41 b 5326290286.22 36.02 67.70 600.277.83 a -41179895206.38 -84.77 Error Relatif -67.36 MAPE 42.51 Error Statistik -98.000.139 -56.000.78 30.70 4.15 20.000 -4.000 0 -100.75 500.123.56 20.12 MSE 2.28 -50.793.07 125.15 -31.40 -8.750 -86.000.758.69 16.75 8.18 200.000.76 700.Pe (%) ǀ Pe ǀ Σ Nilai -148.40 6.8832 -20.02 -69.78 -13.22 -44.98 0.37 -51.740.34 51.000.000 -2.84 -110.91 MASE 45.78 28.61 148.569.27 ME -24.12 80.91 78.81 40.75 -40.05 MPE -31.26 -16.938.69 1830 8758793740000 73810 -27.000.220 -57.31 -125.000.874.845.98 -18.000 -13.12 161.86623 -12.000.000.93 18.34 -0.000 8.83 8.26 50.28 48.000 -78.107.37 57.35 31.000.35 -20.18 7.41 35.58 XY 317.210.000 -0.56 Plot Data RL Perusahaan -28.78 100.77 62.35 -62.70 -4.967.66 86.83 30.73 -2.18 -35.50 -36.000 -134.49 -7.942.000.774.49 4.76 13.73 13.223.000.75 44.000 .000 -117.36 56.12 Y 8.000.61 X 1830 -161.623.281.93 2.707.000 -6.50 0.38 98.31 117.84 113.08 400.

000 6.67 16.71 27.59 27.13 17.59 40.09 17.10 27. 200.65 33.000.10 8.71 20.85 15.65 .77 4.09 13.85 17.13 4.49 40.02 13.09 41.000.000.000 100.79 27.09 16.77 17.000.67 -100.000 8.49 6.000.02 33.67 20.79 0 41.000.67 15.

-1.533 .868 2.

845.000 Σ ta RL Perusahaan Demand Forecast .179. Σ Nilai a -41.207 b 5.895.277.326.774.287 317.290.

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816.768.544.181.903.21 12 79.000 36 292.011.600.000 106.705.808.566.100.853.000.000 1681 6.600.508.205.267.800.000 1225 3.000.250.000 1849 6.400.241.594.98 13 55.563.325.484.000 83.719.550.000 49 188.437.738.847.000 75.442.575.300.907.79 18 82.465.381.037.692.494.550.000 1444 5.075.869.194.746.797.082.713.234.775.504.000 -18.11 42 130.370.000 144 952.096.876.416.000 133.359.000 129.604.717.146.93 9 31.850.686.575.474.000 256 1.76 35 111.967.000 25 215.043.448.068.100.215.700.000 64 520.230.327.61 23 115.074.543.000 145.609.000 141.183.781.992.767.708.425.622.000 -2.87 43 144.834.000 55.648.688.575.231.Periode Demand t^2 d.260.63 44 152.825.826.285.600.000 1764 5.53 36 117.933.990.800.211.751.000 196 1.578.852.750.425.220.076.909.591.833.892.750.000 1600 5.679.13 5 43.487.74 14 74.000 126.000 784 2.429.125.730.863.500.24 33 114.339.000 2025 6.797.92 .000 1296 4.750.423.776.343.348.925.08 21 93.000 529 2.89 4 84.550.343.000 118.29 37 125.750.245.000 28.000 576 3.000 361 833.059.950.915.475.675.500.125.250.500.323.000 24.660.13 25 80.521.690.000.127.219.825.000 67.941.642.540.534.000 114.897.464.056.27 16 73.699.674.000 121 708.559.721.525.850.780.000 40.922.075.000 1936 6.060.272.696.000 625 2.211.949.297.16 46 114.098.112.700.400.000 100 664.166.967.419.804.289.058.000 81 280.000 -6.806.719.400.600.017.772.359.246.t F=a+bt 1 54.000 63.012.600.649.475.068.250.982.258.586.32 20 75.000 961 3.771.000 -10.078.975.728.000 1 54.300.573.000 86.125.900.000 169 717.150.000 225 1.000 36.000 12.116.000 324 1.844.639.000 400 1.330.03 17 85.087.000 137.100.185.000 676 2.077.841.750.42 28 90.000.000 484 2.000 1089 3.000 16 337.000 59.000 -14.700.000 729 3.970.71 31 114.196.968.500.05 38 136.890.153.942.037.203.652.900.900.000 71.635.534.350.750.960.000.693.100.500.000 4.644.90 26 98.000 1521 4.82 39 124.878.350.000 43.750.982.000 98.030.900.250.627.020.500.951.357.213.951.750.95 30 126.529.426.955.781.900.101.850.69 10 66.093.000 841 3.000.075.982.000 79.84 8 65.582.950.320.39 45 133.250.125.862.859.350.139.885.000 32.308.222.337.400.352.489.613.600.247.000 90.859.00 34 105.50 15 92.385.525.268.825.577.36 6 48.42 2 36.829.000 8.126.843.204.182.000 4 72.000 20.000.210.300.050.000 51.950.051.075.979.375.000 289 1.311.66 27 116.65 3 53.350.793.000 47.19 29 103.000 441 1.47 32 133.096.000 102.37 24 128.146.515.820.152.154.84 22 94.811.806.250.550.330.370.000 -22.000 2116 5.455.000 900 3.894.784.000 110.301.447.675.000 149.206.000 16.960.763.456.245.445.000.041.203.378.837.300.60 7 26.355.000 1156 3.000 94.047.56 19 43.000 -26.375.000 1369 4.000 995.991.171.967.34 41 160.45 11 64.077.000 1024 4.436.000 122.912.725.750.000 9 161.023.050.515.451.493.218.705.508.58 40 127.

91 85 301.02 55 159.050.545.86 81 286.100.253.76 73 255.712.293.900.889.890.63 82 290.000 3025 8.099.526.79 56 160.550.302.000 2809 7.362.28 75 262.385.000 180.195.625.402.400.859.21 50 141.000 161.913.000 3600 9.45 49 114.000 165.687.560.191.89 64 219.915.000 3364 9.877.000 176.112.78 94 337.74 52 122.668.049.086.942.928.000.349.000 200.483.572.47 141.454.265.60 61 208.769.662.717.788.31 58 167.778.757.652.26 92 329.000 157.324.37 62 212.089.81 77 270.731.797.573.000 3249 10.605.205.900.409.274.803.481.972.003.23 71 247.146.050.300.034.10 80 282.413.170.836.508.270.744.65 65 223.795.389.072.725.000 184.447.234.120.000 2209 6.925.468.145.000 3481 10.634.176.283.000 188.190.849.438.837.464.000 2916 8.275.007.875.012.419.71 69 239.129.000 204.337.131.700.886.274.000 2500 7.762.782.000 2601 8.331.916.05 76 266.020.297.532.638.508.776.02 93 333.400.554.000 2304 5.671.935.600.18 67 231.500.97 51 158.000 2401 5.283.823.652.986.625.255.47 70 243.096.527.000 192.15 84 297.846.075.750.094.97 89 317.718.55 57 184.000 2704 6.08 59 177.209.000.809.904.557.000 196.298.279.375.000 3136 8.760.13 63 215.368.139.801.441.680.225.059.68 48 123.827.825.000 153.597.349.50 53 138.425.536.005.218.668.157.84 60 152.310.382.164.54 .757.787.923.760.617.000.391.779.546.000.827.304.44 87 309.517.187.000 169.642.178.394.804.000 172.901.20 88 313.190.000.040.349.148.457.063.994.905.031.623.42 66 227.73 90 321.625.26 54 149.961.553.914.871.896.750.34 79 278.00 72 251.257.49 91 325.665.428.751.533.589.39 83 294.68 86 305.775.643.893.166.287.52 74 258.050.022.100.126.100.454.575.731.031.57 78 274.164.94 68 235.

94 106 383.354.598.41 104 376.985.506.861.706.36 100 360.139.476.796.994.519.546.591.228.615.069.677.46 108 391.612.52 112 407.99 110 399.690.33 117 426.89 102 368.868.865.875.606.849.795.498.502.480.427.858.230.70 107 387.750.158.80 115 419.62 120 438.723.820.432.636.769.625.243.343.975.888.372.17 105 380.335.83 98 352.471.113.953.151.597.23 109 395.237.65 103 372.09 118 430.31 96 344.07 97 348.57 116 423.732.28 113 411.045.12 101 364.024.967.363.138.909.489.322.86 119 434.111.387.101.059.317.120.04 114 415.60 99 356.980.954. 95 340.75 111 403.742.980.273.782.414.246.228.183.661.38 Total .704.

852.556.692.826. Forecast et ǀ et ǀ et^2 Pe (%) -26.263.590.372.136.599 1.172.235.804.000 -50.644 3.29 8.988.551.000 -16.962 2.553.172.652.571.601.102 11.664.729.800.000 -98.000 31.413.600.880.897.728.280 1.000 -51.102 11.728.158.437.410.806.985.242 14.230.894.197 -34.162.331 -23.863.920.500.021.525.936.26 16.707.258.982.884.856.794.508.400.804.62 -22.242 120.460.147 2.959.857.640.970.491.586.912.000 -6.607.942 35.727.991.093.000.097.577.060.191 11.699.101.573.768.080.330.734.000.962 49.960.536.593.32 51.016.474.510 1.211 5.211 72.191 134.059.699.508.951.000 -117.501.695.284.714 182.887.439.000 -1.001.172.13 28.516 -51.749.000 -27.20 133.477.210.000 -44.739 -30.784 18.03 86.825.139.367.017.673.000 -124.530 -53.942 35.78 83.312.635.990.057 -2.271.000 -31.473.32 36.501.878.816.853 -2.000.627.351 20.153.000 -12.654.774.325 57.339.337.564.873 716.969.107.473.440 2.340.348.271.265.987 15.834 -26.717.000 -40.74 12.389.145.000 2.579 9.982.563.876.190.451.874.893 6.720 -41.560 -49.163.000.548.258.310.774.023.81 24.679.000.754.672.739.325.000.756.105.539.105.506.92 98.826.091.933.465.306 5.052 3.48 -14.000.886.402.580 42.102.142.683.865.768.013 -15.234.005.210.450.107.10 129.784.920.728.494.038 -49.862.573.522.76 -18.000.121 4.760.400.406.82 118.840.534.582.600.216 -18.121 63.828 38.545.429.803 1.798.279.640.509.521.000.287.513.788.083 -27.878.764 -38.689 3.936.894.758.099.508.000.593.591.93 -6.000.032.829.102 1.280 41.915.000 -48.30 63.54 141.000 -20.613.669 23.185.316.395 55.856.101.220.132.316.166 692.40 114.351 432.689 -55.585.359.714 13.475.828 1.060.465.889.465 7.642.939.406.475.47 4.650.641.000 -148.000.794.000 -110.579.271.81 995.061.848 -29.074.54 40.319.005.543.000.093.749.000 -69.605 -55.311.000 -8.884.293.535 -7.000.530 53.55 79.265.874.936.943 6.321.052 58.000 -56.910.694.293.520.803 34.860.202.987.599 42.196.548.924.484.917.056.348.007 4.780.000.280.804.000 -28.979.271.683.960.722.052 -58.258.716.379.706.000 -7.912.987 251.286 -13.599.650.993 -64.235.97 59.000.032 41.000.664.061.142.213.323.502.716.272.939.487.554 4.981.624 11.000.474.43 90.469.000.933.166.484 51.893 80.000 -4.554 64.484 2.136.771.844.211 -72.615.501.804.556.062.000.000 -19.000 -86.588.416.047.494.236 38.992.917 746.306 26.929.000 -4.256.955.000.950.465 57.579 3.506.077 1.000 -13.491.873 26.36 -10.167.968.000.654.237.704.823.186.000.98 -2.261 30.694.000 -84.501.522.866.942.675.080.227.976.313.020.534.000.469.893.798.714.923 -41.000.395 3.000 -79.408.704.862.068.413.890.556.000.000.886.633.102 1.601.571.890.007 64.000.98 126.356 -62.446 -64.784 351.879 -63.600 0.000.515.903.871.915.000.710.000.420 -6.538.510 39.000 -113.127 -26.564.147 6.848 891.846.967.062.880.000.27 47.575.945.87 149.104.000 -80.820.451.26 145.669 551.572.728.882.237.739 123.09 .46 67.816.943 2.087.000 8.643.959.325 3.798.758.50 106.600.917.062.778.172 -38.550.000 -36.734.931.000 -67.768.689 55.400.70 71.047.576.719.413.706.872.442.102 140.865.86 102.279.194.898 -1.096.708.579 3.163.000.222.413.408.320.917 27.000 -35.34 137.756.000.231.930.272.016.872.061.784.968 -41.699.508.717.885.185.271.679.797.613.433.897.60 110.785.490 -39.940.580 6.000 -1.809 -11.894.948.102.456.000.071.624 122.633.203.882.893.457.371 9.186.447.550.862.544.615.644 62.204.400.572.511.850.236 1.451.146.225.758.000 -161.73 55.352.872.511.000 -62.142.675 -57.834.313.465.265.857.167.585.272.032 1.427.561.000 -57.091.491.132.000.637.401 -42.925.067.69 122.324.816.371 -98.29 75.706.406.688.739 11.672.690.000 -134.774.684.166 26.04 20.942 1.342.324.062.056.410.203.158.530 2.770.222.000.367.096.811.242 120.077.440 49.261 -11.265.749.371 98.988.649 -20.261 953.893 -80.848 29.694 -5.758.705.000.000 -20.000.551.245.42 43.077 41.810.376 -11.477.000 -2.204.53 94.312.000 -13.21 32.474.950.792.350.000.600.

018.886.554.944.509 25.000.872 23.164.255.643 258.84 180.536.779.000.513.218.953.405.624.751.034.350 28.283.809.302.652.040.517.000.000.21 200.129.445.543.694.109.000 17.04 204.032 28.533.513.098.280 243.70 161.95 169.391.414 313.634.100.769.003.174.598 235.93 188.783 11.624.157.891 301.744.831.987 2.526.573.831.000.000 6.512.176.022.634.512.000 8.713 51.923.037.138.638.715.671.350 803.068.894.000.541.000.051 297.669 958.400.783 132.389.164.596.154.013.713 2.34 165.120.000.299 .191 7.377.235 219.788.265.283.761.987 50.606.713 51.896.872 23.458 337.310.563.000 15.66 184.994.554 212.717.662.638.210 294.257.439 239.166.419.191 7.872 534.148.665.353.000 40.454.928.11 157.349.777 329.274.931.760.465 47.297.000 16.126.914.223.549.140.757.732 305.694.481.099.513.137.953.849.731.006 274.484 262.362.696.756.004.931.528.140.271.802 255.16 196.350 28.138.012.917 227.000 41.000 33.905.000 27.095 321.409.065.680.146 10.000 17.325 266.509 25.146 10.221.866.305 23.514.528.551.780.512.441.961 251.896.000.032 831.086.145.000 20.483.367.625.631.83 176.573 309.000 4.509 644.669 30.305 23.302.382.165 270.031.007.504.000.072.707.348.120.69 192.000.086.000.154.758 231.624 34.47 172.139.445.546.101.348.688 282.020.191.032 28.828 38.029.643.468.140.686.405.395 215.828 38.877.500.181.112.419.000.640.375.715.305 572.098.402.049.866.829.222.836.652.153.560.624 1.109.942.881.293.000 13.583.191 59.936 325.230.508.762.298.367.823.419.624 34.205.937.000 27.543.987 50.797.724.178.428.270.873.369 290.076 223.204.756.896.146 105.558.465 47.946.783 11.377.465 2.915.993.004.669 30.545.257.271.61 208.222.254 317.841.587.847 278.828 1.528 286.302.618 333.901.020.121 247.554.551.

606.888.769.229 391.370.866 376.070 395.000 -1.975.427.503 360.985.049 96.592 407.821 352.498.480.237.732.340.059.151.477 434.111.246.322.318 438.547 383.796 426.723.598.953.911.184 368.030.433 411.451.519.592.858.089.994.910 399.114 419.637 430.861.226.506.868.363.354.471.101.704.228.849.013.372.662 356.955 423.414.230.677.140 344.200.597.344 364.751 403.243.120.489.626.335.274 415.388 387.980.138.967.782.981 348.869 .371 2.625.000.707 380.025 372.045.742.875.615.690.243.159 -1.612.796.

517 86.86 500.30 50.415.990.43 20.76 Y 6.29 ME -18.107.20 Fo 2.000 8.54 7.09 0 -100.763 12.050.50 4.554.32 MAPE 42.62 X 1830 161.433.000 4.000.341.32 44.000 1.944 80.000.000.288 57.000.70 1830 6424991775000 73810 27.424.10 De 19.93 113.000.000 117.000.73 40.81 Error Relatif 67.60 6.53 Plot Data RL Pesaing 28.000 79.47 84.74 SSE 40.42 0.775.27 36.55 b 3907873840.26 MSE 1.15 62.82 13.000.78 a -30267389733.98 110.000 2.46 16.151 56.065.48 XY 233.000.40 400.97 48.26 8.87 100.92 13.000 .160.29 35.000 134.000 31.36 124.975.606.98 300.839.03 31.000.21 MPE -31.000.176.844.000.991.000.04 MASE 33. ǀ Pe ǀ Σ Nilai 148.81 Error Statistik 98.1786 20.000.537.520.69 1.13 69.54 51.34 200.184.

34 16.16 17.04 33.21 13.83 27.70 41.69 4.95 -100.11 0 27.000.000.66 15.000.93 17.000.84 20. 100.47 40.61 .000 6.000 8.

2.537 .

Σ Nilai a -30.844.975.841 233.873.000 Σ ata RL Pesaing Demand Forecast .389.050.267.907.733 b 3.

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.

.

.

.

210.520.107.000.013.164.483.000 Holt 2.000 312.927.967.000.111.000.756.660.614.000 185.709.779.000 Brown 572.909.000.000 .000 1.399.000.176.445.341.874.050.158.839.502.000.281.000.990.000 Regresi Linier 2.806.942.490. Metode MSE Perusahaan MSE Pesaing DMA 339.606.537.775.895.492.000 1.935.633.000.

.

889 432909 657891 11 238.334 480004 729462 36 264.571.556 427257 649302 8 235.556 461166 700833 26 254.938.537.586.686.720.530.572.247.146.112 481888 732325 37 265.080.094.653.333.503.672.667 434792 660754 12 239.667 468701 712285 30 258.066.639.001 474353 720873 33 261.740.706.869.445 487539 740913 40 268.334 463050 703696 27 255.774.223 438560 666479 14 241.163.502.713.700.778 459282 697971 25 253.445 453631 689382 22 249.619.112 431025 655028 10 237.000 423489 643577 6 233.000 65.281.754.755.925.112 447979 680793 19 246.122.484.943.966.375.291.667 451747 686519 21 248.769.783.319.778 476236 723736 34 262.556 478120 726599 35 263.112 498842 758090 .667 417838 634988 3 230.909.263.213.18 Periode Forecasting Permintaan Sepeda Pompa Angin 1 228.889 466817 709422 29 257.841.556 444211 675068 17 244.875.223 421606 640714 5 232.686.150.078.112 464933 706559 28 256.108.544.808.112.516.556 495075 752364 44 272.179. Harga 450.277.889 415954 632125 2 229.000 Proporsi 0.952.517.741.436.897.605.445 436676 663616 13 240.778 425373 646439 7 234.488.416.267.889 449863 683656 20 247.778 493191 749502 43 271.450.402.445 419722 637851 4 231.347.980.010.470.382.044.334 496958 755227 45 273.000 440444 669342 15 242.82 0.883.558.223 472469 718010 32 260.889 483772 735187 38 266.301.334 429141 652165 9 236.361.001 457398 695108 24 252.334 446095 677931 18 245.585.348.977.911.177.334.778 442328 672205 16 243.445 470585 715148 31 259.551.223 489423 743776 41 269.001 491307 746639 42 270.223 455514 692245 23 251.727.368.315.305.667 485655 738050 39 267.136.672.475.

855.797.194.223 506377 769541 50 278.778 527099 801033 Jumlah 28291609 42994738 .889.388.223 523332 795307 59 288.46 274.261.008.923.613.058.788.445 521448 792444 58 287.092.191.205.991.334 513913 780993 54 283.994.556 512029 778130 53 282.227.957.219.126.627.778 510145 775267 52 280.445 504494 766679 49 277.001 525216 798170 60 289.600.001 508261 772404 51 279.811.025.112 515797 783856 55 284.022.667 502610 763816 48 276.416.402.822.825.667 519564 789581 57 286.160.889 500726 760953 47 275.889 517680 786719 56 285.

334 338231 438750 38 194.433.334 345875 448665 44 198.334 305108 395783 12 175.334 315300 409003 20 181.255.087.433.334 335683 435445 36 192.334 294917 382562 4 169.275.713.506.334 321670 417266 25 184.334 339505 440402 39 195.334 326766 423877 29 187.358.334 344601 447013 43 197.358.048.334 300012 389173 8 172.334 317848 412309 22 182.920.422.565.833.334 336957 437097 37 193.334 343327 445360 42 197.629.008.883.334 328040 425529 30 188.608.933.033.334 310204 402393 16 178.462.777.334 316574 410656 21 181.334 331862 430487 33 190.398.383.133.334 348423 451970 .208.334 297465 385867 6 170.442.283.753.334 303834 394130 11 174.191.294.482.483.334 296191 384215 5 170.708.583.283.233.964.334 324218 420571 27 186.235.334 320396 415614 24 184.334 293643 380910 3 168.649.836.508.108.816.334 325492 422224 28 187.683.546.458.333.983.208.158.308.334 347149 450318 45 199.908.334 308930 400741 15 177.609.858.151.334 292369 379257 2 168.334 311478 404046 17 178.880.334 329314 427182 31 189.058.17 Periode Forecasting Pesaing Sepeda Pompa Angin 1 167.334 301286 390825 9 173.378.334 319122 413961 23 183.334 342053 443707 41 196.334 314026 407351 19 180.558.334 298738 387520 7 171.334 306382 397435 13 176.171.783.334 307656 399088 14 176.334 312752 405698 18 179.023.083.183.633.797.408.669.004.211.358.900.000 75.733.733.068.338.133. Harga 475.940.758.334 333135 432139 34 191.658.958.526.693.334 334409 433792 35 192.334 322944 418919 26 185.334 340779 442055 40 195.334 302560 392478 10 173.808.334 330588 428834 32 189.533.984.258.319.83 0.107.000 Proporsi 0.

334 357341 463538 53 205.334 361163 468496 56 207.334 358615 465191 54 205.147.501.183.583.127.772.508.334 356067 461886 52 204.960.334 350971 455275 48 201.483.043.334 363711 471801 58 208.334 362437 470149 57 208.408.808.856.334.46 200.334 364985 473454 59 209.334 359889 466843 55 206.558.658.334 349697 453623 47 200.733.334 367532 476759 Jumlah 19797036 25680480 .334 354793 460233 51 203.334 366259 475106 60 210.876.334 352245 456928 49 202.108.334 353519 458581 50 203.958.689.033.418.314.605.333.231.883.585.258.

17 .82 Pompa Perusahaan 0. Proporsi Sepeda Perusahaan 0.83 Pompa Pesaing 0.18 Sepeda Pesaing 0.

.

136.066 3.786.462.505 1.Sepeda Market Share Tahun ∑ Forecast Demand ∑ Forecast Pesaing Market Demand (%) 2016 5.658.550 28% Pompa Market Share Tahun ∑ Forecast Demand ∑ Forecast Pesaing Market Demand (%) 2016 7.660.130 28% 2020 9.612.898.126 3.637.573 28% 2018 8.956 1.423.874.948 5.096 3.037 3.052 3.852 28% 2019 9.523.929.326.774.011.698.856 1.598.959.277 28% 2017 5.196 5.736 28% 2020 6.142.592.311 1.114.155 3.450 4.445 5.288.295 28% 2017 8.408 1.782 3.408 28% .374.775.096 28% 2018 5.699 4.914 28% 2019 5.811.592 4.200.387.115.322 3.861 4.611.186.

800 443 969.286 241 524.518 206 451.003 420 920.696 229 500.396 490 1.Kapasitas Produksi KPT 426.067.018.874 253 Kapasitas Produksi KPT 872.599 467 1.107 217 475.194 514 .