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The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected

)
Gary A Fitzgerald, Michael W Stahl, David J Campbell, Farzin Nouri, Randall L
Montgomery
ABSG Consulting, Inc.
14607 San Pedro Suite 215, San Antonio, Texas 78232
210-495-5195, gfitzgerald@absconsutling.com

Abstract

When performing consequence-based facility siting analyses, determining the Maximum
Credible Events (MCEs) to evaluate is one of the most important decisions to make. In defining
MCEs, the assumed leak size is arguably the single most important decision made but also has a
high degree of subjectivity. Various publications and practices provide industry with some
guidance on this matter. Some references recommend leak sizes as a percentage of pipe cross-
sectional area but the most common practice is to use a constant maximum leak size for all
scenarios. These approaches are sound for screening-level analyses if sufficiently large leak
sizes are assumed, but may result in large overestimations of consequences and remedial actions
or conversely run the risk of being unconservative if the leak size is too small. According to API
RP 752, any simplifying assumptions made in facility siting hazard studies should be
conservative, resulting in relatively large leak sizes. Following these studies, more detailed
evaluations are commonplace to remove conservatism and better understand the risks.

One area worthy of more detailed evaluations is the leak size selection. This paper presents a
methodology using existing risk-based tools to determine leak sizes of different MCEs in a
consequence-based study. The resulting leak size is the Maximum Design Leak (MDL) which
would be used in determining potential consequences and remedial actions. This approach
provides much greater confidence that the predicted consequences are realistic to both a specific
industry and plant and that money spent for remedial actions addresses actual risks to that plant.
This is not a new science, but a new application of existing science, providing greater confidence
in the results.

An example case using actual refining industry data is presented in this paper as an example of
its application and how results may appear in a refining application.

Background

Two types of studies are allowed per API RP 752, consequence-based and risk-based.
Consequence-based studies evaluate postulated maximum credible events (MCEs) and
unacceptable results must be remediated. Risk-based studies are a rigorous numerical evaluation
of event frequencies and consequences to determine if risk exceeds a threshold and unacceptable
risk must be remediated. In determining consequence-based MCEs to evaluate, the leak size is
probably the most significant decision to be made.

API RP 752 defines a MCE as “A hypothetical explosion, fire, or toxic material release event
that has the potential maximum consequence to the occupants of the building under

W. 3. The two inch maximum leak size guidance is based on the criteria provided in the CEI and World Bank publications. "Dow's Chemical Exposure Index Guide. Lees. “A Survey of Vapor Cloud Explosions: Second Update.C. 3. industry typically uses of the following approaches to establish MCE leak sizes: 1. Evaluating different leak sizes based on the line size as provided in the Dow Chemical Exposure Index (CEI) guidance (FBR for pipes < 2”. Chemical Center for Process Safety (CCPS). F. 1988. Consider full bore ruptures of actual line sizes up to 2 inch diameter lines and use a 2 inch leak size for larger lines. fuel reactivity.” New York. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) consideration from among the major scenarios evaluated. industry incident history. American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE). fire. 2” leaks for pipes between 2” and 4”. process unit geometry. 20% of the cross-sectional area for pipes > 4”). P. and other factors. Evaluate full bore ruptures for all leaks (few follow this approach). 2. Ang. consideration of only small line breaks is not advisable. or toxic material release impacts. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) The MDL calculates a leak size that exceeds a tolerable event frequency. World Bank Technical Paper No. There is no consensus among these references regarding selection of hole size. “Guidelines for Consequence Analysis of Chemical Releases. 1994. 1993. or 2.. Process Safety Progress. equipment and piping design. However. 1999. Based on this information. L. "Techniques for Addressing Industrial Hazards." First Edition. and M. “Classification of Hazardous Locations." Washington. Each building may have its own set of MCEs for potential explosion. one can look at the MDL as knowing the answer in terms of tolerable risk or tolerable event frequency . 4. inventories. 4 inch and higher are often discussed in many of these references. Davenport. The following list gives the best guidance for leak size selection: 1. D. Cox. by Eric M. In general.” by A. operating conditions. 5. Given the subjective nature of the leak size selection and potential problems in defending a given leak size less than a full bore rupture. Hence. The major scenarios are realistic and have a reasonable probability of occurrence considering the chemicals. IChemE. but accepts the risk involved in leaks from pipes greater than 4 inches. 55. an objective method has been developed by which to determine the leak sizes to use in a consequence-based study that provides a more defensible leak size selection than the previous guidance or because a certain size is what everyone else uses. New York. note that values of 2 inch. Lenior and John A.” MCE leak sizes are typically selected based on credible events in industry and for specific plants based on experience and using limited published guidance.

Determine tolerable event frequency for each stream with a scenario 3. several leak sizes will be considered for each scenario in the MDL approach. Postulate scenarios 2. Step 2: Determine tolerable event frequency for each stream with a scenario Note that discussions that follow are in terms of site. Determine what scenarios have frequencies that exceed the tolerable event frequency criteria. This also simplifies the calculations but inherently increases conservatism (as all simplifying assumptions should). For them. then . Intolerable results from that study must be remediated just as in any consequence-based study. The MDL approach needs this on an event basis. Thus. it is helpful to use the MDL based on a tolerable event frequency criteria and avoid the documentation of a frequency for tolerable fatalities. Since release frequency is the criteria to be used in the MDL. However. site-wide risk criteria. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) and back-calculating the leak sizes that result in exceeding that criterion using appropriate risk tools and methods. What is required to determine a MDL release is a tolerable single event release frequency. Calculate frequencies for each scenario 4. then the release frequency (either loaded or unloaded with probabilities) is determined by solving the risk equation below for frequency as shown: Risk = Frequency x Vulnerability x Occupancy or Frequency = Risk/Vulnerability/Occupancy Some companies are risk-adverse and do not want to document risk tolerance criteria in terms of numbers of potential fatalities per year. If site-wide release frequency criteria is available. if the owner/operator has established risk tolerance criteria. Determine consequences for each scenario using MDL size Step 1: Postulate Scenarios The MDL begins by postulating scenarios as is performed in a consequence-based study. This can be determined through derivation if the facility has site-wide release criteria. then the analysis can plot this as a straight line on the y-axis versus leak size on the x-axis and skip to Step 3. or single unit/event risk criteria. several scenarios may be postulated in each process area/unit to ensure the worst case location is identified and to cover both pool fires and jet fires/VCEs and toxic releases. unit and event risk or frequency. Typically. 5. The steps in performing the MDL are listed below: 1. The criteria are usually provided in terms of a site frequency or site risk. This leak size is then used in defining MCEs for a consequence-based study. If this tolerable event frequency has already been defined. tolerable event frequency must first be calculated if not already defined by the owner/operator.

2 Risk Assessment Data Directory (RADD) – Ignition Probabilities. Note that all segments with potentially damaging consequences must either be evaluated for their tolerable frequency or added to other events being evaluated such that the summation of all events being evaluated equals the cumulative tolerable event frequency. International Association of Oil & Gas Producers Report No. IChemE. one could take the total number of isolatable segments in the plant and use that as the basis for unit frequencies. consider the ignition factors in terms of not igniting the release (1 . The summation of all tolerable event frequencies should always equal the tolerable site event frequency. and Ang. simply divide the site frequency by the number of segments in the facility with potentially damaging consequences.5 x 10-6 events/year (1 x 10-5/4). For example. leak directions. .L. each would have a tolerable event frequency of be 3. If the hazard being evaluated is a jet fire. Some materials are easier to ignite than others and a reduction in event frequency can be given to those not easily ignited. ignition factors do not apply. If Scenario 1 was the only scenario being evaluated in Unit A. If the hazard being evaluated is a toxic hazard that is not flammable. Credit can also be given for ignition timing and late ignition is typically assumed for VCE hazards. if the plant had a tolerable site frequency of 1 x 10-4 events/year and there were only 2 units where Unit A had 5 isolatable segments with potentially damaging consequences and Unit B had 15 isolatable segments with potentially damaging consequences. Lees. A. March 2010. one must determine the tolerable frequency for a single event. However. if there were a large difference in complexity between the units.W. To do that. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) risk. if Unit A has two scenarios to evaluate while Unit B has 4 scenarios to evaluate. then ignition timing is not a factor to consider.5 x 10-5 (1 x 10-4 x 5/(5+15)) and Unit B tolerable unit frequency would be 7. Leak directions can have equal probabilities for simplicity.5 x 10-5 events/year. the tolerable event frequency for each Unit A scenario would be 5 x 10-6 events/year (1 x 10-5/2) and the tolerable event frequency for each Unit B scenario would be 2. then Unit A tolerable unit frequency would be 2. This event frequency can be further refined (unloaded) by considering wind directions.ignition probability). 434 – 6.. Other means of identifying complexity and how to divide site risk may be used.. “Classification of hazardous Locations. then each unit has a tolerable unit frequency of 1 x 10-5 events/year (1 x 10-4/10). it would have a tolerable event frequency of 2.P. unit congested volume may be a good indicator of complexity for one plant while the number of towers or reactors may be a good indicator of complexity for another.” IIGCHL.5 x 10-5/2). Thus. it can safely be neglected in this analysis. M.1. vulnerability and occupancy has already been considered and will not be factors to include. Then. Thus. If Unit B had two scenarios being evaluated. material reactivity and/or ignition probability. 1990. For example. Note that wind directions will only be a factor for low velocity releases or a certain distance away from a high velocity release.75 x 10-5 (7.. Ignition probabilities [1] for various leak rates and frequencies for delayed versus immediate ignition [2] may also be considered for added specificity.5 x 10-5 (1 x 10-4 x 15/(5+15)). If the hazard being evaluated is a toxic hazard that is also flammable. this is may be a cumulative frequency for all potentially damaging events on the site. Alternately. If the tolerable site frequency was 1 x 10-4 events/year and the plant has 10 units of similar complexity with potentially damaging consequences. F. Although ignition timing 1 Cox.

Since this is a simplifying assumption. ignition frequency increases with increasing leak size and results in a decreasing tolerable frequency with leak size. they would gravitate towards the same line. Frequency (events/year) 1. Thus. Example Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria Step 3: Calculate frequencies for each stream with a scenario Few owners/operators have sufficient stockpiles of information by which to generate their own frequencies.00E-06 1. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) may affect a pool fire size (depending on the release rate). Since the leak size for any leak rate will be a function of the process conditions.00E-05 1.00E-07 0. If the units had similar complexity and reactivity. the criterion is now in terms of a leak rate but it is needed in terms of a leak size. This is remedied by accounting for plant specific conditions and upset event frequencies which are not part of the equipment failure database. not accounting for specific plant conditions or site history and does not reflect potential for operator error. source term modeling is needed to convert the leak rate into an equivalent leak size for each scenario and leak rate combination.00E-03 The shape of the curves is dependent on other factors such as material reactivity and wind direction. it is difficult to show it is a conservative approach when the data is a compiled average event frequency.00E-02 Note: Although tolerable risk is constant and indepentent of leak size. it is typical to use industry published equipment failure data. An example of what the tolerable event frequency criteria looks like after this step is shown in Figure 1. Also. .00E-04 1. 1. However. this data consists of averaged failure frequencies across industries.00E-01 Stream A Criteria Stream B Criteria Stream C Criteria 1. Note that none of these factors can be accounted for in the consequence calculations of the MDL unless they are also accounted for in the criteria calculations. it can safely be neglected without inducing much conservatism.1 1 10 100 Leak Size(inches) Figure 1. Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria 1.

5. 7 UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE). 6. operating parameters of the contents (e. 210/1999 Assessing the Risk From Gasoline Pipelines in the United Kingdom Based on a Review of Historical Experience. age. Spouge [10] contends that the data. 10 Spouge.... Plant-specific frequency modification Factors such as pipe size. COVO Steering Committee (Netherlands). 2005.e. 2007. J. Process Safety Progress. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) Equipment failure databases First.TV-B. an original source for pipe failure frequency is WASH-1400 [8]. polynomials) to existing actual data or to derive the necessary adjustment factors through a synthesis of observed underlying failure causes.1002/prs. 9 UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE). operating environment to which the stream is exposed (e. A.P. New generic leak frequencies for process equipment. 7. pressure.g. 1995. frequency and quality of maintenance and more affect its propensity to failure.L. has become somewhat suspect due to being old. Contract Research Report No. 6 Rijnmond Public Authority. 8 EGIG 08. the quality and care of the installation. which was published in 1975 and is based on US nuclear industry data. According to him. subjective) factors and multiplying the generic pipe failure rate by these factors. doi: 10. Springer. 8. HSE. .W. 1990.0502. IChemE. While some of this variation is attributable to factors such as substance being conveyed. Thus.” IIGCHL. 3 Cox.” December 2008. location. corrosivity). Risk Analysis of Six Potentially Hazardous Industrial Objects in the Rijnmond Area: A Pilot Study. especially the one used for onshore installations. 4 California Department of Education School Facilities Planning Division. it is recommended to adjustment these frequencies to better represent the industry and plant being evaluated. Lees. The consensus of the authors is that generic frequencies alone may not provide sufficient accuracy for some industries or facilities. Guidance Protocol for School Site Pipeline Risk Analysis. published failure frequencies are used as the foundation of the frequency assessment. temperature.. seismicity). 9]. sometimes by one or more orders of magnitude [4. Some analysts may account for these facts by assigning qualitative (i. 1999. Contract Research Report No.10100. He follows by stating that newer data from offshore experience shows that onshore failure frequencies are likely too low. No one approach is recommended by this paper although the use of qualitative modifiers to generic frequencies is used for illustration purposes.. M. and loss of traceability. Ignition probabilities [3] for various leak rates and frequencies for delayed versus immediate ignition [2] may also be considered for added specificity. 5 Ministerie van Volkshuisvesting. “Classification of hazardous Locations. 24: 249–257.. having been subjectively modified by various authors/analysts. “Gas Pipeline Incidents. including whether above or in ground.. the quality of material used. 1982. 9] have proposed quasi-analytical methods to either fit analytical functions (e. Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment (“Purple Book”). (2005).g. pipeline age and operating parameters. and Ang. Ruimtelijke Ordening en Milieubeheer (VROM) Publication Series on Dangerous Substances.g. F. Other analysts [7. A cursory review of various sources shows that pipe loss of containment (LOC) frequencies can vary.. HSE. 82/1994 Risks from Hazardous Pipelines in the United Kingdom.

Simply being "conservative" can fail a facility when the facility's risk measures are compared to the risk criteria. Regardless of how frequency modification factors are derived. The modifiers in question apply to the failure frequency for random leaks and not to upset conditions. the underlying methods each approach uses to achieve a safe workplace are different. Conditions that can significantly exceed the maximum allowable working pressure/temperature of process equipment can be brought on by exothermic chemical reactions. However. Documents such as API RP 581 (Risk-Based Inspection Technology).g. Modifiers are used to adjust frequency so that the equipment/facility can be viewed as being equivalent to the situation in which the failure frequency data was originally derived. then little to no frequency modification may be required unless the frequency data is being extrapolated to fit a process outside of which it was intended (e. using standard petrochemical failure frequencies for cryogenic service). One of the better indicators showing the need for frequency modification comes from a review of past incidents at a facility. If the answer is no then the out-of-design usage must be defined in order to try to estimate and quantify its impact on the available failure frequency data. provide similar methods for adjusting risk-based inspection frequencies based on modification factors to equipment frequencies. over-firing process heaters. Vacuum collapse of equipment can . The objective of the process upset frequency analysis is to determine if there is the potential to cause equipment failure (loss of containment) not captured by the failure frequency data. Whereas most other modifications will be based on some level of engineering judgment. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) Modifiers to the generic failure frequencies can be applied locally to a specific piece of equipment or a stream or globally to a facility. When attempting to define an appropriate generic frequency modifier for a petrochemical facility. and. Developing a set of criteria for adjusting the base generic frequencies can be a daunting task. to estimate the frequency of such upsets. Process upset frequency assessment A set of scenarios often overlooked during scenario development for consequence-based siting studies is that caused by process upset conditions. Releases due to upset conditions have their own methodology for determining the event frequency and should not be modified again by generic frequency modifiers. Conditions leading to these types of equipment failure typically involve extremes of pressure or temperature (either high or low). This is because while risk assessments and risk-based inspections are both frequency based. if so. failure to let down pressure in the intended direction of flow from high pressure to low pressure systems. A full understanding of the frequency database and how it applies to fit the situation being analyzed is necessary and should not be used just because it is thought to be conservative. care should be taken when using such methods. reverse flow from high pressure systems to low pressure systems. and many other causes. modification from past incidents is a Bayesian adjustment. there should be a solid basis for their use. An example of this is when a facility's process stream changes from sweet to sour service with no equipment changes. two important questions to ask are: "Is the equipment/facility operating in the conditions for which it was designed? Is the equipment/facility operating in similar conditions to the equipment/facility from which the frequencies are being taken?" If the answer is yes.

plant owners have performed layer of protection analysis (LOPA) to estimate order-of-magnitude frequencies of high consequence/high risk accident scenarios. More and more frequently. The products of the process upset frequency analysis are:  A list of scenarios that can lead to loss of containment  An estimated frequency for each scenario (based on the frequency of the initiating event and the failure probabilities of the protection layers) In each case. and the material released. even when modified by plant-specific factors. location) where the release would occur. The release frequencies/rates are then combined with the modified failure rates for the corresponding equipment to obtain the total failure rate. and performance of LOPA on those scenarios. It is necessary to perform an evaluation of the potential for significant process upsets to help ensure no significant risk contributor is overlooked. . the approach should include review of PHAs. Depending on the quality of the existing analyses. Additionally. selection of scenarios for LOPA. and defenses against.e. Typical layers of protection credited in these analyses include operator/control system responses to upset conditions. pumping liquid from a vessel/tank without supplying blanket gas. It is important to note that if the frequency/risk of a process upset scenario results in an unacceptable siting risk. If LOPAs do not exist.. another may have significant vulnerabilities. corrective actions should first be to consider installing additional layers of protection to reduce the scenario frequency rather than relocating or hardening occupied buildings. the approach may be as simple as reviewing the documented analyses and listing the highest risk scenarios. If comprehensive PHAs and LOPAs exist. or other causes. Process upsets are identified in PHAs that also list causes of the upsets and safeguards against the upsets. the scenario definition identifies the process equipment (i. brittle failure can be caused by inadvertent expansion of low boiling point materials. and pressure relief valves. safety instrumented systems/interlocks. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) result from condensing steam. The MDL approach provides the owner with the tools to know where their highest frequency events are located so they can easily take such corrective actions. some additional review/analysis may be required. Specific causes of. The MDL approach to process upset frequency analysis varies according to the level of existing hazard and resulting risk for the plant utilizing any PHAs and LOPAs that may exist. It is not defendable to claim that the estimated frequency of loss of containment based on generic failure rates. is necessarily conservative. While one plant may be well protected. process upsets are highly dependent on the nature of the process and details of the plant design.

00E-07 C 1 2 1.00E-07 8.00E-09 Unit Specific Modifier 1 1 1 1 Plant Specific Modifier 5 5 5 5 Upset Condition Frequency 1.00E-07 4.00E-09 6.  All leak sizes for Scenario-B are below the Stream-B criteria.00E-09 B 1 3 1.00E-07 1.20E-08 1.00E-07 2.00E-07 1. . corrective actions to reduce this frequency should be considered before any other actions taken.00E-07 1. the following conclusions can be made:  Scenario-A frequencies are well above the Stream-A criteria. Note that the Scenario-A frequencies are being controlled by the upset frequency criteria (see Table 1) and if the consequence analysis shows unacceptable results.00E-07 6.35E-06 3.00E-08 1.00E-07 1.00E-07 1. the upset scenario frequency is applied to all leaks equal to or less than the potential upset scenario leak size.00E-07 6.50E-07 1.5 1 1.00E-09 K 0.20E-06 6.25E-07 J 1 0 1.20E-06 2. the upset event frequency is added to the scenario frequency.00E-09 1.87 Step 4: Determine what scenarios have frequencies that exceed the tolerable event frequency criteria.00E-07 D 1 20 1. so all leak sizes have a tolerable frequency and no leaks from Scenario-B should be evaluated in a consequence analysis.00E-02 1. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) Putting it all together Parts counts for the scenario are then performed to include the piping and equipment in the same stream since a release anywhere in that stream would have similar consequences.00E-07 6.80E-06 1.00E-09 2.00E-07 1.00E-08 3.00E-07 6.50E-07 1. so all leak sizes have an intolerable frequency and a full bore rupture of Scenario-A needs to be evaluated in a consequence analysis.00E-07 2.00E-09 2.00E-07 2.00E-09 1.00E-02 Total Freq 1.00E-02 1.20E-06 6. Next.00E-08 3.00E-08 2.00E-07 2.00E-02 1.00E-09 2.20E-06 1. Note that these frequencies are defined as frequencies for that leak size or greater.20 0.20E-06 1.70E-06 9.94 7.20E-08 1.00E-07 I 1.00E-07 2.20E-08 1.00E-07 3.00E-07 1.00E-09 5.00E-07 2.00E-09 1. In this illustration.00E-02 Leak Rate (kg/s) 1 15 55 1000 Size (inches) 0.00E-02 1. Example Scenario Frequency Evaluation Data Part Specific 5mm 25mm 100mm FBR Equipment Modifier Count Leak Freq/unit Adj Leak Freq Leak Freq/unit Adj Leak Freq Leak Freq/unit Adj Leak Freq Leak Freq/unit Adj Leak Freq A 1 10 1.00E-09 6.00E-08 5.00E-07 2.00E-09 2.00E-07 5.00E-08 1.00E-07 2.00E-07 1.40E-06 4.00E-07 2.20E-08 1.00E-09 6.00E-09 6.20E-06 6.20E-06 1.00E-07 1.00E-07 1.00E-07 3.00E-07 F 1 4 1.5 0 6. Thus.00E-09 1.40E-06 4.00E-09 1.20E-08 6.00E-09 2.00E-09 H 1 2 1.00E-09 1.20E-06 6. Plotting the Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria to the Scenario Frequencies. Table 1.50E-07 2.00E-07 G 1 5 1.00E-07 4.00E-07 2.20E-06 6.00E-09 2.20E-06 1.80E-06 2.00E-09 2.00E-08 6.00E-07 1.00E-09 E 2 4 2.00E-07 6.00E-07 M 1 1 6.01E-02 1. a plot similar to that shown in Figure 2 results where the intersection of these lines defines the MDL to use in a consequence analysis.00E-02 1.00E-07 2.00E-09 1.00E-09 2. The frequencies for leaks of various sizes are then compiled and modifiers applied as applicable.00E-08 5.00E-07 1.98 3.20E-06 1.20E-08 6. Tolerable leaks will be those below the criteria line and intolerable leaks will be those above the criteria line. An example of how to compile this data is shown in Table 1.00E-09 1.20E-08 6.50E-08 L 1 0 1.20E-08 6.

Within this unit.93 inches have a tolerable frequency. Scenario Frequencies Unacceptable Region Frequency (events/year) Acceptable Region Stream A Criteria Scenario A Results Note: Since ignition frequency increases with increasing leak Stream B Criteria size. Postulate scenarios A single scenario in the unit is postulated. Scenario C Results 0. . The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected)  Scenario-C frequencies cross the Stream-C criteria at 0.1 1 10 Leak Size (inches) Figure 2. Scenario-C needs to be evaluated in a consequence analysis for a leak size of 0. Thus.93 inches. The scenario selected has the greatest potential for damaging consequences due to its process conditions. Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria vs. 1. A parts count for the entire unit is performed and shown in Table 2. application of ignition frequencies results in a decreasing tolerable frequency with leak size. Example Application Note: This example is based on an actual parts count for a single unit of a refinery. The shape of Scenario B Results the curves is dependent on other factors such as material Stream C Criteria reactivity and wind direction. there are approximately 5 streams that could have damaging consequences if a leak were to occur in them.93 0.8 inches and all leaks larger than 0. Example MDL Plot Step 5: Determine consequences for each scenario using MDL size Now a normal consequence analysis is performed using the same scenarios identified in the MDL together with the leak sizes resulting from the MDL.

or one in twenty five thousand years). of Heat Exchangers (Fin Fans) 4 Greater than 12" 0 No. This is a tolerable event frequency of 0. of Reciprocating Pumps 0 No. of Instruments 85 6"-8" 600 No.001/(5*5). The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) Table 2.001 events/year for all scenarios onsite. of Process Vessels 8 8"-12" 150 No. Example Problem Parts Count for a Process Unit Feet of Steel Pipe No. Once ignition probability is considered. of Heat Exchagers (Shell) 8 2"-4" 45 No. Assuming this process unit has 5 streams with similar complexity to each other within this unit and there were 5 other process units with similar complexity to this unit. of Reciprocating Compressors 2 1"-1 1/2" 0 No. of Filters 6 No. of Centrifugal Compressors 0 No. This frequency assumes ignition occurs for all leak sizes. and the site event frequency were 0. of Actuated Valves 18 2"-4" 2400 No. the resulting tolerable event frequency plot is shown in Figure 3. of Manual Valves 1"-1 1/2" 155 2"-4" 110 6"-8" 15 8"-12" 0 2. of Centrifugal Pumps 8 Flexibile Pipe 10 No. of Heat Exchagers (Tube) 6 6"-8" 30 No. of Other Equipment 1"-1 1/2" 0 No. then the chance of any one event occurring would be 4 x 10-5 (0. . of Storage Vessels 0 Greater than 12" 0 No. of Flanges No.001 events/year. Determine tolerable event frequency for each stream with a scenario The plant decided they want to protect against any scenario occurring onsite once every 1000 years or less. of Heat Exchangers (Plate) 0 8"-12" 15 No.

The summation of all frequencies for a hole size is the frequency for that hole size in the entire unit. Example Problem Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria 3. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) 1.0E-01 Release Frequency (yr^-1) Unacceptable Region 1. This process plant was evaluated to be average when considering the major factors which could influence event frequencies. The plant had performed a LOPA study on the segment of the unit that included the postulated scenario and it resulted in an insignificant upset potential when compared to the other frequencies and was neglected in this example. .0E-02 Acceptable Region 1. The resulting cumulative frequencies for each part count category and leak size is shown in Table 3.0E+00 Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria 1. Calculate frequencies for each scenario The Spouge [10] frequency database was used to calculate cumulative frequencies for each part count category. Since the stream where the scenario is located represents 1/5th of the unit. so frequency modifiers were not applied.0E-03 1.0E-04 1 10 Hole Size (mm) 100 1000 Figure 3. the frequencies for the unit hole sizes are divided by 5 to represent a single event frequency.

37E-04 5.94E-04 2. of Reciprocating Compressors 2 1 1.13E-03 1.84E-05 1.47E-03 2.23E-02 1.63E-05 1.11E-05 4.15E-07 1.35E-06 2.02E-03 2.73E-04 1.58E-09 5.49E-01 1.42E-05 8.44E-05 2. of Plate HXx 1 No.00E+00 0.23E-06 7.23E-04 6.80E-05 No.18E-04 1.92E-07 Meters of 18" Steel Pipe 1 Meters of Flexible Piping 3. of 6" Manual Valves 15 1 4.87E-04 1.69E-06 5. of Reciprocating Pumps 0 1 No.29E-07 No. Thus.67E-06 6.97E-10 No.71E-05 1.62E-05 4.76E-03 1.0256 0.36E-04 2.20E-06 1.1999 Upset Event Frequency 0. of Centrifugal Compressors 1 No.50E-05 2.75E-04 3.74E-05 3.10E-01 2.41E-04 2. Determine what scenarios have frequencies that exceed the tolerable event frequency criteria.00E+00 0.58E-03 1.89E-05 No.57E-04 No.33E-07 No. of Process Vessels 8 1 1.76E-04 1. of Tube HXs (h/c in tube) 6 1 1. of 2" Manual Valves 265 1 3. the leak size for this scenario should be 62 mm (2.92E-04 5.56E-04 Single Event Frequencies per Hole Size 1. of Shell HXs (h/c in shell) 8 1 2. Example Problem Cumulative Frequency for a Process Unit Parts Cumulative Frequecy for Hole Size (mm) Equipment Count Modifiers 10 50 100 300 600 Meters of 2" Steel Pipe 732 1 1.60E-06 1.77E-07 No.24E-04 4. of 0.71E-05 No. of Filters 6 1 2.1487 0. of Storage Tanks 1 No.4 inches). Early Ignition Factors 10 10 10 10 10 Unit Frequencies per Hole Size 5.59E-04 3.5" Instruments 85 1 8.29E-07 3.21E-05 No.0 1 3. Leak Direction. of Air-Cooled HXs 4 1 8.85E-05 7.50E-06 6.75E-06 No.00E-07 1.80E-04 5.94E-04 No.84E-05 9. .0021 0.59E-06 1.19E-04 No. of 18" Manual Valves 1 No.76E-05 3. of 18" Flanged Joints 1 No. The information resulting from Step 3 is now plotted together with the information resulting from Step 4 and the plot shown in Figure 4 results.03E-06 4.0716 0. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) Table 3.16E-04 1.64E-03 8. of 6" Flanged Joints 45 1 1.92E-04 3.00E+00 Wind Direction.00E+00 0. of 6" Actuated Valves (nonpipeline) 18 1 2. of 2" Flanged Joints 45 1 8.21E-04 5.97E-07 Ignition Probability 0.24E-05 5.19E-03 2. of Centrifugal Pumps 8 1 1.04E-03 No.00E+00 0. This shows the scenario frequency curve crosses the tolerable event frequency line at 62 mm.76E-07 3.60E-04 Meters of 6" Steel Pipe 229 1 1.

another advantage of the MDL includes identifying the areas in a facility that drives the risk such that these areas can be remediated to acceptable tolerance criteria. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) approach provided in this paper provides a means to use risk assessment methodologies to define a leak size for use. removing subjectivity and providing a more defendable basis for leak size selection. The Maximum Design Leak (MDL) Approach to Leak Size Selection (corrected) 1. the leak size is a highly subjective decision and maybe difficult to defend if an accident were to occur.E-02 Release Frequency (yr^-1) Unacceptable Region 1. Additionally.E-01 Tolerable Event Frequency Criteria Scenario Frequency 1. A basic PSM goal is to reduce event likelihood whenever possible instead of remediating the consequences (proactive versus reactive). Summary In performing a consequence analysis.E-05 62 10 100 1000 Hole Size (mm) Figure 4. .E-03 Acceptable Region 1. Example Problem MDL Results 5.4”) leak size for this scenario and any unacceptable results are remediated. Thus. the MDL provides a means by which owners/operators that may be risk adverse to take advantage of risk tools without documenting an acceptable number of fatalities and without undertaking a more expensive QRA.E-04 1. Determine consequences for each scenario using MDL size A consequence analysis is now performed using the 62 mm (2.