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Mid-term comments 2015-2016 Semester 1

This mid-term paper consists of three separate questions. The first question is to identify the explanatory

variables to be adopted in a regression model. The second question is a trip distribution problem that

determines the relative attractiveness of two zones. The third question involves mode choices that adopt

multinomial logit model to determine the revenue and the service level of a newly introduced transport mode.

To comment on the overall performance in this test, the test results reflect that most students have spent effort

revising while the mathematical foundation is shown to be weak. This semester has 13 students scoring

higher than 80, and the number of students falls below 50 marks is similar. The mean score of this test is 64.3,

with a standard deviation of 14.0 marks.

The answers can refer to the coming pages and here leaves some comments about the answers.

Q1a) Almost all students can identify X1 to be the inappropirate explanatory variable with correct reason.

Q1b) This performance of this problem is the worst in the mid-term. This problem requires student to

suggest suitable MULTIPLE linear regression model, while many students omit the critical key word

in this problem and provide excessive number of models. To avoid inclusion of excessive model, this

problem includes mark deduction for excessive models. On the other hand, since X4 is negatively

related to Y, the coefficient of X4 is negative, but very few students have shown that in their answers.

**Q2) This question requires student to determine the value of relative attractiveness. For information, it is
**

useful to determine this value so the future forecast can adopt the same value for prediction. Most

students have identified the correct impedance function and calculated friction factor correctly. The

production-constrained tables are correctly constructed. Only a few students have wrongly interpreted

the ratio of trip production of Zones P and Q, or adopted attraction-constrained model to complete the

problem. For solving the equations, students that can neatly write the equations can solve the

equation well, while messed up equations often lead to wrong answers. It is a suggestion for students

to present equations clearly.

Q3a) This question requires students to determine the fare of bus and the profit of bus operator.

Meanwhile, most students have overlooked that the demand of 6,000 is the total trip production from

Y but not the number of trips in QY. This gives a fatal prediction in the fare as well as the total profit

of the bus company. Some students also omit the determination of profit of the company.

Q3b) This question re quires the determination of the travel time of minibus that both companies can retain

at least same level of revenue. Very few students can see the IIA property hidden in this problem, but

by solving two equations and comparing the minimum travel time required. This apporach is also

acceptable while the score deduction in this part is often due to the wrong answers in the last part,

which impacts the final result of this problem.

For all of you to notice, the mark allocation in this mid-term is the most lenient among the four mid-terms I

have marked. Your score may not be a good indicator to show your progress in this course. Careless

mistakes are fatal in this course since this impacts your results in subsequent sections. 70 out of 100 in this

mid-term is the minimum score that shows your study an acceptable progress. You should not expect the final

exam to have a similar lenient marking standard as this mid-term. Be well prepared for your final exam.

55 0. It is expected that the introduction of minibus increases the demand from zone Y to zone Q by 15%.3 8 Bus 0 y a.28 0.3cx where for any mode x. [25%] b.47 0.22 0. the total trip attractions of zones P and Q are the same.14 X2 1 -0. A minibus company is going to operate a route from zone Y to zone Q to compete with the train and bus operator.000 from this line. A four zone city includes two pure residential zones. Mode a C Train 0. Write down your name and university number on the question sheet. determine the fare of bus and the revenue of the bus company operating this line. The residents in zone Y goes to zone Q via two transport modes: bus and train. Given that the train company has a revenue of $12. The travel time t among zones. V is the overall utility. respectively.85 X1 1 0. Following question (2). When using a production- constrained gravity model to determine the trip interchange. The relationship between the friction factor and interzonal impedance is expressed as: ln Fij 0. a is the mode specific constant. [20%] END OF PAPER .68 X4 1 2.37 0.CIVL1011/2111 Transportation Engineering Student Name: _______________________ Question Sheet for Mid Term 21 November 2015 University No.48 -0.: ______________________ You have one hour to answer all questions. Determine the range of travel time of minibus that both bus and train operators can have higher revenues compared with the case without minibus. in minutes.12 X3 1 0. It is known that the trips produced by zones X and Y are in the ratio of 2:3. in which the following representative utility function has been used: Vx ax 0. Determine the ratio of the relative attractiveness of zone P and zone Q in the form of r:1 (where r needs to be corrected to 3 decimal places). P and Q. and the socio-economic factors are all equal to 1. [20%] Y X1 X2 X3 X4 Y 1 0. Based on the following correlation matrix. The mode specific constant of minibus is 0. The modal split can be explained by a multinomial logit model. (1) explain which of the explanatory variable(s) should not be included in any regression model. X and Y. [35%] 3. it is further given that there are a total number of 6000 trips produced by zone Y. The interzonal impedance Wij is equivalent to the travel time tij of bus from zone i to zone j.8 ln Wij Figure Q2 Trip interchanges between districts X and Y and multi-purpose zones P and Q where Fij and Wij are the friction factor and interzonal impedance between zone i and zone j. 1.2 and the price of minibus is $9. and two multi-purpose zones. are given in Figure Q2. t is in-vehicle travel time (minutes) and c is fare ($). and (2) give the possible multiple linear regression model form(s). where both modes have the same travel time from Y to Q.4t x 0.

4 8 12000 0. bx 0 Identify correct explanatory variables – 2.8 r 180.5%.3 y e 10.0910 1 0.8 3 180.931:1.8 r 2 160.8 r 3 160.3 8 10. Utility of bus: 0 0.8 0. Conclusion – 2.8 r 180.5%. Correct AFK in terms of ratio – 2.8 3 20 0. -ve sign for X4 – 5%.4 180.5033 7.1146r d 150.8 r 200.8 r 160.8 0.1 2980.8 r 16 0.8 Number of trips to Y: 6000 2980.1 e 8 0.8 r 20 0.5% Correct selection of variable – 5%. intercept – 2.8 5 150.8 r 160.5%).099r 0.8 Utility of train: 0.4 20 0.8 r 3 j=P r 18 0.1088 1 0. sign convention 2.1 .8 j=Q 1 16 0. Steps – 2.8180.1088 d 150.8 200.8 160. all variables are positive – (extra 2.8 r 16 0.5033 e 10.Solutions for mid-term 15-16 Semester 1 1 X 1 should not be included in the regression model since R1 0.044 2980.7 Trips to Y – 5%.8 180.8 d d 150.4 Only model: Y b0 b1 X 2 b2 X 4 . each extra variable -2. 150.5%. Per table Correct friction factor – 2.8 i=Y Aij tij Fij Kij AFK ij Pi pij 180.937 rej.3 y Determine the bus fare: e 10.044 revenue of bus company: 1 0. and let trip produced by X be d) i=X Aij tij Fij Kij AFK ij Pi pij 150. each extra model -5% (Lowest score: 0.5% 3a 200.8 0.8 20 0. Steps – 5%.8180.1146 1 0.8 150.8 r 150.1 e 8 0.5%.4 10427. Utilities – 5%.0990 1 0.8 20 3 j=Q 1 20 0. Correct trip production equation – 5% Other Correct equating function – 5%.931/ 0.8 d 18 r 20 2 0.8 18 r 20 0.8 200.8 3 d d 0.3 0.8 r 5 16 0.4 20 0.8 0.8 2 2 150.8 r j=P r 15 0. correct explanation – 2.3 y 8 0.931 20 0.5%.5%.3 y By solving the equations. highest: 20) 2 Production-constrained gravity model (Let attractiveness of Q to be 1. revenue – 5% (Wrong r in Q2 but correct steps – -5%) .8 d 18 r 20 2 Providing that attraction to P = attraction to Q.8 2 160.8 r 16 0.8 2 15 r 16 0. The ratio of relative attractiveness of zones P and Q is 0.5%. Solution – 5%. Bus fare – 5%.1 e 10.80 r 0.8 150.8 180.8 r 200. y 7.091 0.

1 e 10.1 e10. Utility of minibus: 0.3109 t 22.4t 0.4t The travel time that bus and train has a higher revenue: e 2.50.5 Utility of train = 10.4t 11.8696 0.8696e2.1 .03 minutes between zone Q and zone Y. Therefore the total market share of bus and train should be 86.15 .4t 1 0.3 9 2. utility of bus = 10.03 Therefore both opertors can have a higher revenue if the travel time of minibus is more than 22. and due to IIA.1132 e 2.50.96% 1/1.1132 To maintain at least the same revenue.3b Number of trips from Q to Y: 2980. steps – 5%. (new demand + utility of minibus) – 5%. conclusion and answer – 5% .4 t 0.5 0.1304 e 10.1132 2.2 0.1304 e10.4t 0.50.5 0.4 1. identification of the relationship between new market share and current market share – 5%. the train and bus should keep the same patronage. the market share ratio of bus and minibus remains the same.15 3247.

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