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**• The normal distribution is the most important distribution. It describes well the
**

distribution of random variables that arise in practice, such as the heights or weights

of people, the total annual sales of a firm, exam scores etc. Also, it is important for the

central limit theorem, the approximation of other distributions such as the binomial,

etc.

**• We say that a random variable X follows the normal distribution if the probability
**

density function of X is given by

1 1 x−µ 2

f (x) = √ e− 2 ( σ ) , −∞ < x < ∞

σ 2π

This is a bell-shaped curve.

**• We write X ∼ N (µ, σ). We read: X follows the normal distribution (or X is normally
**

distributed) with mean µ, and standard deviation σ.

**• The normal distribution can be described completely by the two parameters µ and σ.
**

As always, the mean is the center of the distribution and the standard deviation is the

measure of the variation around the mean.

**• Shape of the normal distribution. Suppose X ∼ N (5, 2).
**

X ~ N(5,2)

0.20

0.15

0.10

f(x)

0.05

0.00

−3 −1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13

x

**• The area under the normal curve is 1 (100%).
**

Z ∞

1 1 x−µ 2

√ e− 2 ( σ ) dx = 1

−∞ σ 2π

**• The normal distribution is symmetric about µ. Therefore, the area to the left of µ is
**

equal to the area to the right of µ (50% each).

1

**• Useful rule (see figure above):
**

The interval µ ± 1σ covers the middle ∼ 68% of the distribution.

The interval µ ± 2σ covers the middle ∼ 95% of the distribution.

The interval µ ± 3σ covers the middle ∼ 100% of the distribution.

**• Because the normal distribution is symmetric it follows that
**

P (X > µ + α) = P (X < µ − α)

• The normal distribution is a continuous distribution. Therefore,

P (X ≥ a) = P (X > a), because P (X = a) = 0. Why?

**• How do we compute probabilities? Because the following integral has no closed form
**

solution

Z ∞

1 1 x−µ 2

P (X > α) = √ e− 2 ( σ ) dx = . . .

α σ 2π

**the computation of normal distribution probabilities can be done through the standard
**

normal distribution Z:

X −µ

Z=

σ

Theorem:

Let X ∼ N (µ, σ). Then Y = αX + β follows also the normal distribution as follows:

Y ∼ N (αµ + β, ασ)

Therefore, using this theorem we find that

Z ∼ N (0, 1)

**It is said that the random variable Z follows the standard normal distribution and we
**

can find probabilities for the Z distribution from tables (see next pages).

2

The standard normal distribution table: 3 .

4 .

5 .

3).8708 from the table.92%. X = µ ± zσ.25. First we find the value of z = 1.Example: Suppose the diameter of a certain car component follows the normal distribution with X ∼ N (10. In other words.4 − 10) = X − 10 13. x25 = 10 − 0.8708 = 0.675. Of course z will be negative when the value of x is below the mean.13) = 1 − 0. Answer: P (X > 13. It is negative because the first percentile is below the mean. Therefore. the value of x = 5.975.1292. and in our example the value x = 13.1 lies 1. Here it is equal to z = −0. Or. Question: What is z? The value of z gives the number of standard deviations the particular value of X lies above or below the mean µ.1−103 ) = P (Z < −1. In other words.13 (first column and first row of the table . 3 3 We read the number 0.4 − 10 P > = P (Z > 1. 6 .1) = P (Z < 5.675(3) = 7.4 mm. find c such that P (X ≤ c) = 0. Here.4 mm is 12.13 standard deviations away from the mean. Find the proportion of these components that have diameter larger than 13. Answer: P (X < 5.4) = P (X − 10 > 13.25 from the table and we read the corresponding value of z. find the probability that its diameter will be larger than 13. Finding percentiles of the normal distribution: Find the 25th percentile (or first quartile) of the distribution of X. Answer: First we find (approximately) the probability 0. if we randomly select one of these components.1 mm.the first row gives the second decimal of the value of z).4 lies 1. Example: Find the proportion of these components with diameter less than 5. Therefore the probability that the diameter is larger than 13.63 standard deviations below the mean µ.4 mm.0516.63) = 0.

example: 7 .Normal distribution .

8 .

07) = 1 − 0.7) = P (Z < ) = P (Z < 0.7 ounces? 8.2 < Z < −0.5) = P (Z > ) = P (Z > 2.33) = 1 − 0.2 and 7 ounces? 6.5 c. 1.6808.5 b.5 ounces?).00) = 0.0228.5 ounces.9808.67) = 1. 11.7 − 8 P (X < 8. What proportion of oranges weigh less than 8. and standard deviation σ = 1.9 ounces? 4.1363.2 < X < 7) = P ( <Z< ) = P (−1. What proportion of oranges weigh between 6.9) = P (Z > ) = P (Z > −2.5 ounces? (or if you randomly se- lect a navel orange. We can write X ∼ N (8.5 d.2514 − 0. What proportion of oranges weigh more than 11.9901 = 0.47) = 0.5 0.0192 = 0. Normal distribution . Answer the following questions: a. 1. 1. 1.5 e.5 1.1151 = 0.9 − 8 P (X > 4.5 − 8 P (X > 11.2 − 8 7−8 P (6.finding probabilities and percentiles Suppose that the weight of navel oranges is normally distributed with mean µ = 8 ounces.0099. 1.5). what is the probability that it weighs more than 11. What proportion of oranges weigh more than 4. 9 . What proportion of oranges weigh less than 5 ounces? 5−8 P (X < 5) = P (Z < ) = P (Z < −2.

5 1.5 1 − 0. What proportion of oranges weigh between 10.5 1.53 < Z < 4) ≈ 1.8 − 8 8. Find the 80th percentile of the distribution of X.645 = ⇒ x = 5.6) = 1. x−µ x−8 z= ⇒ −1.3 < X < 14) = P ( <Z< ) = P (1.3 and 14 ounces? 10.27.845 = ⇒ x = 9. Find the interquartile range of the distribution of X.2119 = 0.8 < Z < 0.9) = P ( <Z< ) = P (−0. This question can also be asked as follows: Find the value of X below which you find the lightest 80% of all the oranges.53.8 and 8.5 i.5138.5 0. g.8 < X < 8.9 ounces? 6. σ 1.5 j. What proportion of oranges weigh between 6.9 − 8 P (6.0630.3 − 8 14 − 8 P (10. h.f. σ 1.7257 − 0. x−µ x−8 z= ⇒ 0.9370 = 0. Find the 5th percentile of the distribution of X. 10 .

If three individuals are chosen at random from the general population what is the probability that all three satisfy the minimum requirement for M EN SA? Example 7 A manufacturing process produces semiconductor chips with a known failure rate 6.3 pies and standard deviation 4. Example 5 To avoid accusations of sexism in a college class equally populated by male and female students. Example 3 Suppose that the height of U CLA female students has normal distribution with mean 62 inches and standard deviation 8 inches. What is the probability that the firm’s sales will fall within $150000 of the mean? b.62 inches and a standard deviation 0. with mean 100 and a standard deviation of 16. the professor flips a fair coin to decide whether to call upon a male or female student to answer a question directed to the class. b.5 million and a standard deviation of $300.35 and 4. what is the minimum IQ required for admission to M EN SA? b.Examples Example 1 The lengths of the sardines received by a certain cannery is normally distributed with mean 4. What is the probability that he calls upon a female student exactly 510 times? Example 6 M EN SA is an organization whose members possess IQs in the top 2% of the population.3%. Normal distribution . c. Example 4 A firm’s marketing manager believes that total sales for next year will follow the normal distribution. Determine the sales level that has only a 9% chance of being exceeded next year. If IQs are normally distributed. a. 000. Assume that chip failures are independent of one another. You will be producing 2000 chips tomorrow.23 inch. Find the demand which has probability 5% of being exceeded. Find the probability (approximate) that you will produce less than 135 defects. a. Find the standard deviation of the number of defective chips. a. a. with mean of $2. Find the height above which is the tallest 5% of the female students. What percentage of all these sardines is between 4.6 pies. b. What is the probability that he calls upon a female student at least 530 times? b.85 inches long? Example 2 A baker knows that the daily demand for apple pies is a random variable which follows the normal distri- bution with mean 43. Find the height below which is the shortest 30% of the female students. a. The professor will call upon a female student if a tails occurs. Find the expected number of defective chips produced. What is the probability that he calls upon a female student at most 480 times? c. 11 . Suppose the professor does this 1000 times during the semester.

c.1 oz.. the data sent over the wire are subject to a channel noise disturbance. then 1 is concluded If R < 0.8 oz.. find the probability that the number of bottles found out of control in an eight-hour day (16 inspections) will be exactly one. If the amount of the bottle goes below 35. However. x = ±2. If the process is in control. and standard deviation 0. then the bottle will be declared out of control.5.5. In the situation of (a). b. a. Once every 30 minutes a bottle is selected from the production line. If the process shifts so that µ = 37 oz and σ = 0.must be trasmitted by wire from location A to location B. the value received at location B. meaning µ = 36 oz. d. find the probability that the number of bottles found out of control in an eight-hour day (16 inspections) will be zero.EXERCISE 8 Suppose that the height (X) in inches. is the value sent from location A. In the situation of (a). and σ = 0. or above 36. then R. If x. If P (X > 79) = 0. find the probability that a bottle will be declared out of control. 12 . When the message is received at location B the receiver decodes it according to the following rule: If R ≥ 0.025 what is the standard deviation of this random normal variable? EXERCISE 9 Suppose that the weight (X) in pounds. the value 2 is sent over the wire when the message is 1 and the value -2 is sent when the message is 0. find the probability that a bottle will be declared out of control. then 0 is concluded If the channel noise follows the standard normal distribution compute the probability that the message will be wrong when decoded. so to reduce the possibilty of error. of a 25-year-old man is a normal random variable with mean µ = 70 inches.1 oz. is given by R = x + N . If 5% of this population is heavier than 214 pounds what is the mean µ of this distribution? Problem 10 At Heinz ketchup factory the amounts which go into bottles of ketchup are supposed to be normally dis- tributed with mean 36 oz. of a 40-year-old man is a normal random variable with standard deviation σ = 20 pounds. and its contents are noted precisely.2 oz. Problem 11 Suppose that a binary message -either 0 or 1.4 oz. where N is the channel noise disturbance.

1210 = 0. b. This is binomial with X ∼ b(3.02). Example 3 We are given X ∼ N (62.055 = q−100 16 ⇒ q = 132. We want to find the IQ q such that P (X > q) = 0. c.Examples Solutions Example 1 We are given X ∼ N (4.7454 − 0. 8). 300000).345 = s−2500000 300000 ⇒ s = 2903500.5−500 b.3.02. We want to find the sales level s such that P (X > s) = 0.81. This corresponds to z = 1.05.30.525 = h−62 8 ⇒ h = 57. b. Example 5 This is a binomial problem but we are going to use the normal distribution as an approximation.81 <z< 510.23 (1 − 0.60 < z < 0.66) = 0.23) = 0.81 ) = P (z > 1.8413 − 0.62 P (4. We need µ and σ.6 ⇒ d = 50.7203.645. Normal distribution .62 4.6). P (X = 510) = P ( 509.6915 − 0. 13 .5−500 15.05. 0.87) = 1 − 0.09. Therefore 2.000008.525.35 − 4.9 pies. P (2350000 < X < 2650000) = P ( 2350000−250000 300000 <z< 2650000−2500000 300000 ) = P (−0.23).88. From the standard normal table this corresponds to z = 1. b. We want to find the height h such that P (X < h) = 0. Example 2 We are given X ∼ N (43. This corresponds to z = 2.02)0 = 0. We want P (X = 3) = 33 0. Therefore −0.645 = d−43.345.5−500 15. 0.16 inches. We want to find the height h such that P (X > h) = 0. a. P (X ≥ 530) = P (z > 15.645 = h−62 8 ⇒ h = 75. We want to compute 4. P (X ≤ 480) = P (z < 15.23 P (−1. 480.85 − 4. We want to find the demand d such that P (X > d) = 0. Therefore 1. 529. Therefore 1. From the standard normal table this corresponds to z = 1.3085) = 0.35 < X < 4.645.5) = 0.85) = P ( <Z< ) = 0. These are: µ = np = 1000 12 = 500.9693 = 0.5−500 a.0197.17 < z < 1) = 0. Example 4 We are given X ∼ N (2500000.3830.1093. a.81 ) = P (z < −1.7257 = 0.0307. From the standard normal table this corresponds to z = −0.3 4.055. And σ 2 = np(1 − p) = 1000 21 (1 − 12 ) = 250 ⇒ σ = 15. Example 6 We are given X ∼ N (100. Therefore 1. 4. a. 16).5 < z < 0.62.81 ) = P (0.23 0.8 inches.

4 ) = P (z < −3) + P (z > −2) = 0.063) = 126.645 = 214−µ 20 ⇒ µ = 181.0456) (1 − 0.9772) = 0.06 ⇒ σ = 10. EXERCISE 8 We are given X ∼ N (70. 1).2). E(X) = np = 2000(0.063) = 118. d.5) = 0.05 we find the corresponding z-value: z = 1. P (X = 0) = 16 0 0 (0.5. Or x+N ≥ 0.2) = P (z < 35.5 ⇒ 2+N < 0.87 ) = P (z < 0. p = 0.59 inches.1).1 ) + P (z > 36. This is binomial with n = 16. If the message was 1: It will be wrong when decoded if R < 0.0456) 15 = 0.0456. 134.4 ) + P (z > 36.7823.3623.8) + P (X > 36. c. Problem 11 The channel noise N follows the standard normal distribution.78) = 0. 20). This is binomial with n = 16. This probability is equal to P (z < −1. 0. a. Problem 10 The process is out of control if P (X < 35.025 we find the corresponding z-value: z = 1. Therefore 1.5 ⇒ N ≥ 2.5 ⇒ N < −1.2−37 0.8) or P (X > 36. 0. There- fore 1. P (X < 135) = P (z < 10.8) + P (X > 36.96. σ 2 = np(1 − p) = 2000(0. We compute the probability: P (X < 35.8−36 0. 14 .0456.5. a.5−126 c.87. σ). 0.9785. b.1 pounds.0668. b.96 = 79−70 σ ⇒ σ = 4.5) = 1−0.063). N (0. p = 0.2−36 0.4739. We compute the probability: P (X < 35.0062.645.0013 + (1 − 0.2) = P (z < 35.5 ⇒ −2+N ≥ 0.0028) = 0. P (X = 1) = 16 1 1 (0.0456) (1 − 0.0456. This probability is equal to P (z ≥ 2. If the message was 0: It will be wrong when decoded if R ≥ 0. From P (X > 79) = 0. EXERCISE 9 We are given X ∼ N (µ.063)(1 − 0.9938 = 0. Now X ∼ N (37.4).5. We are given X ∼ N (36.Example 7 This is binomial with X ∼ b(2000.1 ) = P (z < −2) + P (z > 2) = 0. Or x+N < 0.0456) 16 = 0. From P (X > 214) = 0.5.8−37 0.0228 + (1 − 0.

Normal distribution .5 lb and 4.60.Practice problems Problem 1 The chickens of the Ornithes farm are processed when they are 20 weeks old.9 lb). Suppose that the height (X) in inches. If 5% of this population weigh less than 160 pounds what is the mean µ of this distribution? c. The company has determined that the length of time a caller is on hold is normally distributed with a mean of 3. c. What proportion of the company’s callers are put on hold for more than 4.8 minutes? Should the company hire more operators? Show these probabilities on a sketch of the normal curve. more operators should be hired. Problem 3 Answer the following questions: a.9 minutes. Suppose that the weight (X) in pounds. of a 25-year-old man is a normal random variable with mean µ = 70 inches.6 lb. If P (X > 79) = 0. and big (weight above 4. 15 .025 what is the standard deviation of this random normal variable? b. Most of these callers are put “on hold” until a company operator is free to help them. Suppose that 5 chickens are selected at random. At another cable company (length of time a caller is on hold follows the same distri- bution as before). Company experts have decided that if as many as 5% of the callers are put on hold for 4. The farm has created three categories for these chickens according to their weight: petite (weight less than 3. In other words find c such that P (X < c) = 0.9 lb).1 minutes and a standard deviation 0. 2.5% of the callers are put on hold for longer than x minutes. What proportion of these chickens will be in each category? Show these proportions on the normal distribution graph. b. a. standard (weight between 3. Find the 60th percentile of the distribution of the weight. and standard deviation 0. 8).5 lb). What is the probability that 3 of them will be petite? Problem 2 A television cable company receives numerous phone calls throughout the day from customers reporting service troubles and from would-be subscribers to the cable network. of a 40-year-old man is a normal random variable with standard deviation σ = 20 pounds. Find an interval that covers the middle 95% of X ∼ N (64. and show this on a sketch of the normal curve.8 lb. b. Find the value of x. The distribution of their weights is normal with mean 3. a.8 minutes or longer.

Find the probability that in one year (12 months). First the apples are rolled over a screen with mesh size 2. Find the 85th percentile of this distribution.5 inches. Let X be a normal random variable with mean µ = 12 and standard deviation σ = 2. c. between 2. The annual rainfall X (in inches) at a certain region is normally distributed with mean µ = 40 pounds and standard deviation σ = 4. what is the probability that exactly 2 of them will be underweight? Problem 5 Answer the following questions: a. b.2. If P (X > 9) = 0. Apples can be size-sorted by being made to roll over a mesh screens. d.2 inches. e.5 inches. 16 . a. This separates out all the apples with diameters < 2.2 inches. Find the probability that the monthly return of the stock in question (b) will be larger that 0. If you randomly select 5 bags.5 and 3.1.60.Problem 4 A bag of cookies is underweight if it weighs less than 500 grams.2 find the variance of X. Problem 6 The diameters of apples from the Milo Farm follow the normal distribution with mean 3 inches and standard deviation 0.2 on exactly 4 months. Find the proportion of apples with diameters < 2. Find the 10th percentile of this distribution. Second. 20). The montly return of a particular stock follows the normal distribution with mean 0. Use only SOCR to find the answers and print the appropriate snapshots. g. and greater than 3. Assume that the returns are independent from month to month.2 inches. it will take more than 10 years before a year occurs having a rainfall of over 50 inches? h. Let X ∼ N (100.3 inch. Suppose that X follows the normal distribution with mean µ = 5. f. The filling process dispenses cookies with weight that follows the normal distribution with mean 510 grams and standard deviation 4 grams.02 and standard deviation 0. Find c such that P (X > c) = 0. What is the probability that starting with this year.5 inches. the remaining apples are rolled over a screen with mash size 3. The weight X of water melons is normally distributed with mean µ = 10 pounds and standard deviation σ = 2 pounds. Find P (X > 70|X < 90). What is the probability that a randomly selected bag is underweight? b. the return of the stock in question (e) will be larger than 0.

0.8 lb.6 < Z < 4.9 ⇒ x = 3. Problem 2 A television cable company receives numerous phone calls throughout the day from customers reporting service troubles and from would-be subscribers to the cable network. Find the 60th percentile of the distribution of the weight. and big (weight above 4.3085.83) = 1 − 0. Company experts have decided that if as many as 5% of the callers are put on hold for 4.9 ) = P (Z > 1. p = 0. Answer: From the z table we find that z = 1. b. 17 .9−3.5−3.8 0.5 < X < 4.6 ⇒ x = 3. Standard: P (3.3085)2 = 0. Find the value of x.5 lb). Answer: P (X > 4. Most of these callers are put “on hold” until a company operator is free to help them.30853 (1 − 0. Normal distribution .Practice problems Solutions Problem 1 The chickens of the Ortnithes farm are processed when they are 20 weeks old.6 ) = P (−0. a. 1. and standard deviation 0.83) = 0.3085.1404.1 minutes and a standard deviation 0.2055 = x−3.5 < Z < 1.89) = 1 − 0. Suppose that 5 chickens are selected at random. P (Y = 3) = 53 0.1 0.8 0.6 ) = P (Z < −0.9−3. Therefore.5% of the callers are put on hold for longer than x minutes.8 0.6 ) = P (Z > 1. standard (weight between 3.1 0. Answer: From the z table approximately z = 0.8 minutes? Should the company hire more operators? Show these probabilities on a sketch of the normal curve.9 lb).8 0. Big: P (X > 4.9) = P ( 3. The distribution of their weights is normal with mean 3.8 minutes or longer.3085 = 0.8) = P (Z > 4.9 minutes.8 + 0. Therefore. b. Answer: Petite: P (X < 3.6579. The company has determined that the length of time a caller is on hold is normally distributed with a mean of 3. What proportion of these chickens will be in each category? Show these proportions on the normal distribution graph.96 = x−3.9) = P (Z > 4. In other words find c such that P (X < c) = 0. Therefore.60.8 0.1+1. more operators should be hired.8−3.0336.9664 − 0.2055. 2.96(0. The farm has created three categories for these chickens according to their weight: petite (weight less than 3. and show this on a sketch of the normal curve.96.9) = 4.6 lb.5 lb and 4.86. c. a. What is the probability that 3 of them will be petite? Answer: This is binomial with n = 5. At another cable company (length of time a caller is on hold follows the same distribution as before).92.6) = 3.2055(0.5−3. What proportion of the company’s callers are put on hold for more than 4.0294.50) = 0.9664 = 0.9706 = 0.9 lb).5) = P (Z < 3.

The filling process dispenses cookies with weight that follows the normal distribution with mean 510 grams and standard deviation 4 grams.96 = 79−70 σ 9 ⇒ σ = 1. Suppose that the weight (X) in pounds. Problem 4 A bag of cookies is underweight if it weighs less than 500 grams. what is the probability that exactly 2 of them will be under- weight? Answer: P (Y = 2) = 52 0.Problem 3 Answer the following questions: a. If P (X > 79) = 0.96 = 8 ⇒ x = 64 + 1.025 what is the standard deviation of this random normal variable? Answer: 1. 18 . a.645) = 192. b. 8).645 = 160−µ 20 ⇒ µ = 160 + 20(1.5% probability at each one of the two tails.0062. x−64 1.59. Therefore −1.32. b.9. If 5% of this population weigh less than 160 pounds what is the mean µ of this distribution? Answer: −1.5) = 0. What is the probability that a randomly selected bag is underweight? Answer: P (X < 500) = P (Z < 500−510 4 ) = P (Z < −2. Suppose that the height (X) in inches. of a 40-year-old man is a normal random variable with standard deviation σ = 20 pounds.96(8) = 48. If you randomly select 5 bags.96(8) = 79.96 = 4.0062)3 = 0. Answer: We have 2.96 = x−64 8 ⇒ x = 64 − 1. c.00622 (1 − 0. Find an interval that covers the middle 95% of X ∼ N (64.68. of a 25-year-old man is a normal random variable with mean µ = 70 inches.0004.

or if n is not very large but p ≈ 0. Find the probability that in these 1000 tosses we obtain at least 530 heads? • See figures below for the shape of the binomial distribution for different values of n and p. We can approx- imate binomial probabilities using the normal distribution as follows: • Calculate np and n(1 − p).5−µ σ ) = ··· k−0.5−µ More than k successes P (X > k) = P (Z > σ ) = ··· At most k successes P (X ≤ k) = P (Z < k+0. The ±0.5 in the formulas above is the so called continuity correction and we should use it for better approximation. • Here is how you can approximate binomial probabilities: At least k successes P (X ≥ k) = P (Z > k−0. These 2 requirements hold if n is large. q • Compute µ = np and σ = np(1 − p). 19 .5.5−µ Exactly k successes P (X = k) = P ( σ < Z < k+0. If both are ≥ 5 continue.5−µ σ ) = ··· k+0.5−µ Less than k successes P (X < k) = P (Z < σ ) = ··· k−0. • Example: A coin is flipped 1000 times. Normal approximation to binomial Suppose that X follows the binomial distribution with parameters n and p.5−µ σ ) = ··· • Some comments: The approximation is good if both np and n(1 − p) are ≥ 5.

1500 0.0098 2 0.2461 6 0.1172 8 0.0000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 x (number of successes) 20 .0010 1 0.0439 3 0. p=0.0098 10 0.2051 5 0.2500 0.2051 7 0.3000 0.1000 0.1172 4 0.0500 0.2000 Probability (X=x) 0.0010 Binomial distribution n=10.5 0. Normal approximation to binomial x P(x) 0 0.0439 9 0.

1) X ∼ b(100. 0.95) 21 . 0.Examples: X ∼ b(100.

a. 0. Find the expected number of defective chips produced. Assume that chip failures are independent of one another. Find the probability (approximate) that you will produce less than 135 defects. Find the standard deviation of the number of defective chips. X ∼ b(15. 22 . You will be producing 2000 chips tomorrow. b. c.3%.55) Example: A manufacturing process produces semiconductor chips with a known failure rate 6.

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