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Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

**Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on
**

Information Classification Approach

1

Jingmin Wang, 2Xiaodong Liu, 3Ruiqing Cui

1

School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University,

Baoding, China , 407427536@qq.com

*2

School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University

,Baoding, China, liuxiaodongf@126.com

3

School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University,

Baoding, China, cuiruiqing2006@163.com

Abstract

In this paper a novel method of spatial load forecasting is presented for new urban area with the help

of information classification approach. In accordance with the information required by the load forecast

whether we can see, the new area is divided into the white system, the gray system and the black

system. Cellular automata (CA) is used to determine the land-use types of each small-area in the black

system; On the basis of the collected samples, the fuzzy clustering method is used to develop the load

density levels, then use the secondary clustering method to predict the density of small-area load, On

the basis of the collected samples, the fuzzy clustering method is used to develop the load density

levels, then use the secondary clustering method to predict the load density of small-areas; The

formulas and known information are used to calculate the load of small-areas in the white system.

Finally, an actual example illustrates the accuracy and reliability of the method, making further

improving the accuracy of prediction results possible.

**Keywords: Information Classification, Spatial Load Forecasting, Load density, Fuzzy Clustering
**

Analysis, CA

1. Introduction

In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy and the support of relevant national

policies, China's central and western regions have rapid developed, new urban areas are emerging. Due

to the particularity of no historical data, in the new urban area power construction, less load forecasting

method can be applied to and the prediction accuracy is difficult to guarantee. As a basis of power

construction, power load forecasting is the basis of power grid investment, substation location selected

and volume set, and the power point foundation. Its accuracy determines the operability and

adaptability of grid planning alternatives [1-2].Because of its advantages to forecast the total load, load

distribution and load growth position without historical data, spatial load forecasting has gradually

being the attention of domestic and foreign scholars and planners in recent years.

The spatial load forecasting is the basis of the distribution network planning .It was first proposed

by the US HL .Willis in the 1980s [3].After decades of continuous development and improvement, it

has formed a variety of forecasting methods, and its prediction accuracy is continuously

improving .The domestic mainly take the load density methods to forecast the load of the new area.

The research of improving the prediction accuracy is focused on the load density calculation .It uses a

variety of complex algorithms to optimize the results [4-8], but ignores the importance of the land-use

types to improve the prediction accuracy; the land-use types of the new urban area are also not clearly

in foreign countries. It mainly studies the land simulation methods to improve the prediction accuracy.

Because of the one-sidedness of improving load forecasting accuracy at home and abroad, this paper

brings in the idea of information classification, which is from information theory and cybernetics. The

new urban area is divided into the white, gray and black system to study respectively .The load density

methods and land simulation methods are applied to the load forecasting of the new urban area, and

make further improving the accuracy of prediction results possible.

**International Journal of Digital Content Technology and its Applications(JDCTA) 527
**

Volume7,Number4,February 2013

doi:10.4156/jdcta.vol7.issue4.64

If the classification is too coarse .Therefore .the new urban area which is based on the load characteristics is divided into following nine categories: residential. Li is the load of the class i. 3. it uses the methods of the planned land classification . Si is the area of the small-area i. has no uncertain information or the uncertain information can be easily approved by a simple method in the forecasting process. which is the main focus and hotspots of the domestic research currently [10]. industry. administrative. The planning area is divided into regular or irregular cell [9]. According to the formulas. The division of the new urban area The spatial distribution of the load forecast should be based on small-area function.etc. σ is coincidence factor.the small-areas begins the secondary classification . substation. and increases the difficulties of collecting original data and the workload of the load forecasting .The “gray” indicates a part of the information is clear and some is not .it makes the duplication of work of the load index value of the similar features . commercial finance.The small-areas that the required forecasting data is not completely clear are so called black system. But part of the required information is still difficult to determine.When the load classified . roads and squares.Accordingly .The small-areas that the required forecasting data is clear are so called white system . clear indicators in load density.The “black” indicates the unknown .On the basis of small-area division . education and scientific research. this paper uses the irregular methods.whether Geographic Information System (GIS) and the factors that affect the small-areas’ load density indicators are clear or not . so that the division of the small-area contains a single type of load as much as possible .2 Gray System The small-areas divided into the system are able to collect the partial load density indicators or the information of related factors. we can calculate the total small-areas’ load in the system directly. When the load classified .If the classification is too detail .1 White System The small-areas divided into the system have the clear land-use types. 3. which is one-to-one correspondence.the system that the information is completely clear is so called the white system . administrative office. 528 . Lw is the total load of the white system. green spaces and unknown area.The system that the part information is clear is so called the gray system .the classification of covering a wide range is subject to accidental factors that reduce the accuracy of forecasting . Ruiqing Cui 2. Xiaodong Liu.people used the depth of color to describe the clarity of information .The system that the information is not completely clear is so called the black system . Spatial load forecasting method based on information classification approach In the information theory and cybernetics . The specific formulas are as follows: n L i i 1 D i× S i (1) n L w i 1 L i (2) In the formulas: Di is the load density of the small-area i. which require some methods and models to repair or fill. 3.On the basis of urban development planning of the new urban area. Because of the difficulties of collecting data in the regular methods.it considers the classification of the history of electricity data and the planning land divided by the planning departments. Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach Jingmin Wang.The “white” indicates completely the clear . health care. feeder supply area.statistics .it asks the moderate level of detail .The small-areas that the required forecasting data is partly clear are so called gray system .

and can classify a number of sample data automatically in accordance with their degree of intimacy in the nature. the concrete steps are as follows: 1) Use the fuzzy clustering to analyze the sample data.x2. we can determine the measured small-area’s load density level. we adopted the fuzzy clustering method to analyze the sample data to form the load density levels. work time. In this paper. thus to determine the respective level and the load density indicators of each small-area. In the classification process. and had a discriminant analysis to sample data of the predict small-area according to the level of load density. Cluster analysis is the important means and methods of data classification processing. While the roads. income per capita. With reference domestic literature [11-12]. and get the load density indicators LG. 4) Set X={x1. 529 . each two samples as a class. the formula is: n x M 1 / nk k x k (3) kj ij i1 3) Form the value of load density level center and impact properties to a new sample data sets R=(xij)k×m. it is not necessary given a classification standard in advance. the commercial financial are affected significantly by the small-area’s positioning. and class the N samples in sample matrix into K classes. The relevant factors of the small-area’s load Land-use Type Relevant Factor Income per capita Residential areas population density electricity consumption per capita Population density Administrative and office areas the distance from the neighborhood the highest temperature Cell positioning the sales Business and financial areas business hours the highest temperature Income per capita Health areas the distance from the neighborhood population density electricity consumption per capita Education and scientific research areas the school time per year the number of students in the school The output value of the unit consumption population density Industrial areas the ratio of electrical energy to energy consumption business hour the average temperature Road and square areas Lighting power Green space areas Lighting power As an exploratory analysis. the residential quarters are affected significantly by the ratio of electrical energy to energy consumption. Xiaodong Liu. average temperatures. Ruiqing Cui Many factors affect small-area’s load density. and so on.x3…xm} as the sample data of the small-area to be measured. squares and green space are affected significantly by the lighting power. for instance. use SPSS software to have a clustering analysis with the small-area data and the resulting new sample data. the relevant load factors of each small-area are shown in the following table: Table 1. and so on. 2) Calculate the sample fuzzy numbers xkjM of the k. Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach Jingmin Wang.class load density and related factors. and in the case of the absence of priori knowledge [13].

state. which is taken from a finite set [14-15]. Where: xkjM is the center value of the k.class load density and related factors. the land-use types of the small-area have not been determined.| viy voy | 1.t.3…K. when using size rule meshing method. viy ) Z 2 Where: vi is neighbor Cellular. the neighbors are defined as follows: N Moore {vi ( vix . we can completely see the loadings’ information. Standard CA is a four-tuple. and then placed under the gray system to predict. neighbors is a collection of all adjacent residential Cellular. viy are row and column coordinates value of the neighbor Cellular. The so-called partial conversion rule is a cellular from one state into another state to follow specific rules. The next moment state of a cellular is a function of the last moment state of the neighborhood. is the general term of a class of model. Composing of CA Re-divide the small-areas in the black system. representative of the state of cellular. vix . cellular automata (CA) is used to determine the land-use types of the small-area. each of the small-area is separated from one another. 3. viy )} (5) s. those who meet these rules models belong to the CA model. CA is a time and space discrete dynamical systems. In this paper. i=1.3 Black system The information of the small-areas divided into the system need for load forecasting is not clear or is difficult to obtain. When using irregular division method. and at some point cellular can have only one state. and thus can be used a certain method or model to determine land-use types first. and transform the small-area to white system. m is the number of attributes. N ) (4) t1 Where: S is a finite set. Figure 1.3…nk. the following formulas can be used: k n i i1 Si / j 1 S j (6) 530 . j=1. It is a methodological framework composed of a series of model construction rules. composed by Cellular. N represents cellular neighborhood. With the set language CA model can be described as follows: S f (St. Ruiqing Cui 5) With the known of the measured small-area’s area. Z is a collection of cellular. get the load density indicators. vox .(vix . Xiaodong Liu.2. ƒ represents the partial conversion rules. K=1. nk is the number of the k-class sample. voy are row and column coordinates value of the Center Cellular.2. the neighbors and rules. t represents time.| vix vox | 1.2. Predict the power load of small-area in the black system. thus have a calculation according to the formulas.3…m. Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach Jingmin Wang.

use the above methods for power load forecasting. According to the urban development planning.28 0. and LB is the load of the black system. the new total area of 31. Ruiqing Cui n LB i Di S i (7) i 1 Where: θi is i class district accounted for the ratio of the total number of the neighbors.98 5103.51 20.1331 Industrial area 2. get the load density levels as shown in Table 3 and Table 4. a new urban area of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is used as an example. in 17 districts.8855 Administrative and office area 2. black system can be classified as gray system after treatment.13 1145.01 1218. Si is the area of small-area i.1 26147 816 22. Di is the load density of small-area i. Due to the construction sites and the condition of the natural environment.49 531 .07 16. electricity consumption per capita. 4. Empirical Study In this paper. Residential area load density data load density income per capita population density electricity consumption （MW/ （yuan/person/year） （person/km2） per capita (kwh/year) km2） 4797.8056 Green space area 5. Xiaodong Liu.17 100 The white system load can be calculated directly on the basis of the survey data. Load factors include: income per capita.8977 Business and financial area 1.54 4. Using fuzzy clustering method to deal with the existing data [9].4 15974 1104 26.15 6. α is the coincidence factor.9406 Health area 0.17 Km2.79 18.60 5. The region is divided into two regions. so this article selects a residential area in the gray system as an example to validate the models and algorithms.2656 unknown area 5.8 20012 1084 26. The specific land-use types Land-use type Area（Km2） Proportion（%） Residential area 6.4 16554 1011 2.598 Road and square area 5. residential area is mainly in the second categories. 8983 Education and scientific research area 1. Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach Jingmin Wang. irregular division method is used. building an eco-community.68 8.5756 Total area 31. population density. the specific land-use types are summarized as follows: Table 2. 348 small-areas.55 17. Table 3.

113-119. pp.78 662. 1. 32. Vol. [5] FU Yang. 20. Power System Technology.66-71. Vol.89 9.22 1038. NO. Vol.22 25719. 5. 33. 1038. NO. Vol. Conclusion This article introduces the idea of the information classification in information theory and cybernetics to the new urban area power load forecasting. “Spatial Load Forecasting of Distribution Network Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine and Load Density Index System”. Results: X and Y=（4292.67 25.9 31845 538 11. 35. [3] Willis H L. SUN Caixin. ZHANG Yun.10MW / km2. [6] XIAO Bai. The model has opened a new research ideas for the load forecasting of the new urban area. 2. “A New Method to Obtain Load Density According to the Theory of Fuzzy Approach Degree”.67） classified as a class.62 Table 4. 19.1 15791 637 9. Fuzzy clustering and cellular automata methods are used to determine the small-area's load density and land-use type.62 1196. SHEN Gang. YIN Jun. 6.423-427.67 20. 2007. Fan Hua. Ruiqing Cui 1208.46-49. CAO Jialin. pp. REN Haijun. SHOU Ting. Power System Technology. 3. In Proceedings of the IEEE.33 832.44 11.22. making further improving the accuracy of prediction results possible. the gray system and the black system. Northcote-green JED. ZHAO Jun-guang. East China Electric Power. the gray system is transformed into a white system.10 1029.04 16425. WANG Zhu-ding.11 535. Power System Technology. 16738. pp. 1983. ZHU Lan. [2] Zhu Feng-juan. 17757. SUN Wei. 2011. pp. Supplement 1. pp. the new area is divided into the white system.01 30664. LI Ping.120-123. ZHU Tie-ming. cluster analysis of sample data using SPSS software. small-area’s load density is 25. References [1] LI Xiao-hui. Vol. Vol. Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach Jingmin Wang. XIE Guoyong. 2009. 532 . NO. “The Application of Load Forecasting Methods in Power Distribution Network Programming for Tianjin Binhai District”. 2011.48 17757.81 1248. 71.21 2496. “Classification and Subarea Method for Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Planning Area Temporal Order”.50 1025 2.42 2611. Xiaodong Liu.48.59 Small-area sample data X = (4897. NO. “Spatial electric load forecasting :A tutorial review”. load density levels load density income per capita population density electricity consumption （MW/ （yuan/person/year） （person/km2） per capita (kwh/year) km2） 4928.232-253. “Load Regularity Analysis on Spatial Load Forecasting of Urban Power System”. 31. 39. [4] ZHOU Quan.43 16342. pp. ZHANG Jin-lu. 1258). NO. 2008. Jia Wei. DENG Jingyun. Automation of Electric Power Systems.

pp. Hui Wang. Vol. 39. Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach Jingmin Wang. pp. ZHOU Yong-yong.68-73. [13] BO Yao-jun. NO. pp. 4. NO. Vol. LI Jian. “Spatial Load Forecasting for Distribution Networks Based on Rough Sets and Cellular Automata”. NO. ZHANG Yun. Electric Power Automation Equipment. “Spatial load forecasting based on cluster analysis”.161-167. 2004. 8. ZHANG Xiao. LI Zheng-yuan. “Application of fuzzy number and multi-attribute weighted grey target theory in small area load forecasting”. 2.124-128.22-25. 28. 2008. 33.434-440. 2008. Xiaodong Liu. “A new method to obtain load density based on improved ANFIS”. Vol. “Self-repair Succession of Plant Community by Quantum-inspired Fuzzy Clustering Analysis”. Vol. Vol. Ruiqing Cui [7] ZHOU Quan. Journal of Convergence Information Technology(JCIT). 6. LIXI-lan. ZHANG Xiong. DENG Jing-yun. 2008. Power System Protection and Control. [9] WU Bing. 39. [11] GUO Pengwei.532-536. pp. ZHANG Yan. NO. Journal of Fu zhou University(Natural Science). [15] ZHOU Quan. 3. 11. Proceedings of the CSEE. 2011. pp. NO. 7. 2011.20-23. 36. NO. Heilongjiang Electric Power. 2011. FU Jin. WANG zhan-ying. Journal of Convergence Information Technology(JCIT). Vol. 533 . 25. SUN Cai-xin.351-358. “City future saturated load forecasting based model of saturated load density”. 11. [8] JIANG Xin-qin. Vol. NO. SUN Cai-xin. REN Hai-jun. Jilin Electric Power. [14] Yi Gui-ling. pp. HUANG Qiaolin. SUN Wei. WEN Zhong-ming. Vol. XIAO Bai. “Small Area Load Forecasting of Distribution Network Based on Clustering Analysis”. SHANG Ai-jun. 24. 2012. “Research on the Urban Water Consumption Prediction Based on Gray Support Vector Machine”. 2011. Power System Protection and Control. pp. DAI Yao. [10] Shuyan Wu. 1. Vol. [12] HE Yun-hong. NO. pp.29-34. 36. “Land usage-based spatial load forecasting in distribution system”. NO. pp. 6. ZHANG Xiao-hui.

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