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Spatial Load Forescasting Fuzzi Method

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SHAHRAM JAVADI

Azad University – Tehran Central Branch

Electrical Engineering Department

**Moshanir Power Electric Company
**

IRAN

Abstract:

During the last four decades various load forecasting methods have been created. However, these methods

cannot forecast future loads in case of sever lack of data, when only few loads are measured in nonconsecutive

years. This paper proposes and describes the general methodology to use fuzzy logic to fuse the available

information for spatial load forecasting. The proposed scheme can provide distribution planners other

alternatives to aggregate their information for spatial load forecasting. A new spatial load forecasting method

using non-uniform areas has been established. The result is a method that requires substantially less manpower

and data than existing grid-based methods. In addition, this method results in a closed-form solution for spatial

loading as a function of time.

The algorithm has been tested on the Ghaen City (North-East of IRAN), Khurasan Province as a benchmark for

present and projected land uses. The results provide a reasonable projection of the loads in the Ghaen City area,

in line with the expectations. The algorithm accurately constrained the growth within the forecast area to the

overall projected demand.

Keywords: Power Systems, Spatial Load Forecasting, Fuzzy Logic

**1. Introduction affect the gain or loss of millions of dollars for their
**

Utilities are required to provide reliable power to companies as well as customer satisfaction and

customers. However, utilities do not want to future economic growth in their territory. Therefore,

overbuild their system because they need to bear the utilities are very concerned about distribution

unnecessary cost. In ideal situations, utilities will planning. They would like to use as many tools as

build a reliable power system with just enough possible to help them achieve the best planning so

capacity (with proper reliability margins) to support that money, time, and human resources can be used

their customers. Distribution systems are the retail effectively and efficiently. Different approaches,

part of utilities that supply power to their customers. such as spatial load forecasting based on land usage

Distribution system covers large geographic areas and end-user load modeling, have been used to

with substantial construction and operation costs. improve the performance of distribution load

Proper information gathering, decision making, forecasting [1-3]. Land usage-based spatial load

planning and design are all important towards a more forecasting is based on objective predicts how the

cost-effective and reliable distribution system. In the land will be used - Will it be a residential site,

design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for commercial site, or industrial site in the future?

anticipated future load growth under different Each land usage is assumed to have a certain load

possible scenarios. They need to decide whether to growth characteristics [4].

build new lines and substations, or to upgrade the The land usage-based spatial load forecasting

existing systems. Their decisions and designs can compute simulation has been used to aggregate

1

The basic nature of spatial load forecasting fits well The process. as shown in Figure 1. Thus and distributed data base have been developed to spatial load forecasting becomes even more attractive manage the large amount of data available and to than before due to affordable costs and superior load best utilize the information provided in the data. One of the immediate 2. The conventional feature map approach does • Where should they plan the new lines and structures? not capture linguistic and heuristic knowledge in an Among different distribution load forecasting effective manner. (2) deciding membership functions. Different help the utilities save thousands of man hours that are technologies such as fuzzy logic. intuition. experience. general. Spatial Load Forecasting Modeling challenges is what type of technology is suitable for Load forecasting in power systems is an important us to appropriately process the information to subject and has been studied from different points of improve our applications. expert an important part for spatial distribution load systems. Techniques such as regression analysis. the better we utilize relevant information. Conventional linear weighting on evaluations have been used based on different choices feature maps have been used in the spatial load of inputs and available information.appropriate geographic information to simulate future In the present era of information technology. we also face [2]. neural networks. The constraints include system load accuracy of spatial load forecasting depends on growth. land usage decision making is results. expert knowledge. fuzzy rules. view in order to achieve better load forecasting As shown in Figure 1. To Land usage-based spatial load forecasting name a few: simulation programs are basically a tool to provide • What type of land usage will be in their territory in the information to users to help them make decisions for future? different scenarios. technique used and the quality of human calibration process [3]. and affordable the information explosion problem. The land usage and load growth are then methodology to use fuzzy logic to fuse the available calibrated based on different constraints imposed on information for spatial load forecasting. accrete. problem due to its spatial diversity and sensitivities to land usage and customer habits. Application of Fuzzy Logic in Spatial Model been developed [6-8] to asset utilities to simulate and Heuristic. The use of GIS can other appropriate technologies. techniques. Most of the linguistic • What type of power consumption will be in their territory? description such as close and prefer are fuzzy in • Should they build new feeders and substations or reinforce the existing ones? nature. the better results will be. Since the the areas [5]. The proposed scheme can provide 2 . Land-use based spatial load forecasting resolution. fuzzification and what the land usage will be based on the collected defuzzification processes. However. we can load growth based on different anticipated scenarios access much more information than a few years ago. and (3) predicting the future load This paper proposes and describes the general growth. Many industrial sites prefer to be very close to highways. artificial neural networks and multi-objective forecasting. [3]. Distribution forecasting programs to infer land usage decision system load forecasting has been a challenging [3]. etc. in which we Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology have so much information that humans alone cannot provides an excellent data base platform for spatial handle the huge amount of data without help from load forecasting techniques [5]. involves: (1) into a fuzzy logic application that includes using gathering appropriate spatial information. Different tools have 3. Spatial load forecasting techniques have been Availability of high resolution and more variety of shown to provide superior results compared to other GIS data. applications such as decision and control [10-12]. future economy growth of many different factors such the inference engine the area. improved compute speed and reduction in distribution load forecasting techniques such as cost are all helpful to provide better accuracy in regression analysis of historical distribution load data distribution load forecasting. The approach will be discussed in terms of ease of heuristic implementation and feature Figure 1. For example. budget available. the one based on spatial distribution of The increasing popular fuzzy logic technology has land usage has yielded one of the best performances achieved impressive achievements in engineering [9]. estimate the future land usage and load growth in and linguistic descriptions are often used by their territory. The increasingly popular. factors need to be considered for this purpose. There are a few stages for spatial load forecasting. it will be difficult to demonstrate the GIS Land usage Load Growth quantitative results from the fuzzy information Informatio decision Estimation gathering. plan according to their goals and interests. information. spent on collecting relevant geographic data. In forecasting accuracy. so that distribution system planners can engineers in distribution planning.

intuitive variables: Very Close. Moderately Prefer. Commercial and Industry) with respect to distance to highway and also distance to urban pole are mentioned in tables 1-3 as follow: Table 1: FAM matrix for residential site Highway V C F Urban Pole V SA MA MA Figure 2.1. Strongly Prefer. used knowledge. to describe distances. In addition. and Far. Fig 3 shows five C MP MP MA membership functions that describe the different F MP NT SA preferences: Strongly Against. The rules for selecting three various sites value of being very close. a 0. are subjective. These the membership functions of three linguistic rules can be extracted from common sense. 0 and 2000 meters cannot be considered as situations. survey results. we would like to select Linguistic terms such as Close and Far are often used sensible membership values. Table 3: FAM matrix for Industrial site Highway the preference membership functions are normalized V C F between [0. Since the descriptions of many linguistic terms are relative. Again. Figure 2 shows linguistically in the form of IF-THEN rules. In general. 900 meters is really moderately too close to highways in order to avoid the noises close because it has full membership value for being and air pollution generated by the traffic of the moderately close. where 0 indicates non- 3. Fuzzy Rules member and 1 indicated full member of the Heuristic and expert knowledge are often expressed membership function. Fuzzy Sets/Membership functions and fuzzification good results [13]. However. For example. Prefernce Values The membership values of each function are usually normalized between 0 and 1. yet not membership function. A 0. Figure 3. 3 .2 C MP NT SA preference value can be considered moderately F SP NT SA against because it has membership value 1 for the moderately against (MA) membership function. Distance membership functions.2. there are some rules of thumb for membership function selection that can produce 3. For laws. commercial. or industrial site. Moderate Close.2 preference value cannot be Urban Pole considered as moderately prefer (MP) because the V NT MA SA corresponding membership value is 0. general principles and to describe the distance from the highway. 25-30%. Assume Highway that the level of preference is linearly mapped to V C F [0.1]. Neutral. C SA SP MA F SA MP SA Linguistic terms such as Strongly Against and Moderate Prefer is commonly used linguistic Table 2: FAM matrix for Commercial site expressions in decision making processes.1]. and other means that reflect real-world example. where 0 indicates absolutely against and 1 Urban Pole indicates absolutely prefer.66 membership highways.distribution planners other alternatives to aggregate Even though the choices of membership functions their information for spatial load forecasting. then the corresponding V SP SP MP universe of discourse is [0. The range is termed the universe of discourse of the membership function. we need to define the range that the membership functions of the linguistic variable are to cover. The distance from the highway is an important factor for many Byers to determine whether the site is suitable as a residential. 200 meters has 0.1]. (residential. we would like to Linguistic terms used in our daily conversation can be choose the membership functions which overlap easily captured by fuzzy sets for computer with other neighboring membership functions by implementations. the average home buyer moderately close because they both have 0 generally prefers to buy a house that is close to membership values in the moderately close highways for the convenience of commuting. respectively. Moderately Against.

pdp (1) ∫ µ(p)dp Figure 5. in the physical world is usually in prevalent and physically appealing of all the quantitative units rather than in linguistic form. The distance has membership value 1 for moderately Figure 4. Satellite photo of Ghaen City Where ∫ denotes an algebraic integration. 4. and 0. the results will be photo of city and we choose a typical area with a in membership units. The process to convert the actual numerical value (crisp) to its membership value (fuzzy) through membership functions is usually called the fuzzification process. The centroid rule is one of the most popular defuzzification techniques and will be the one used in this paper. but In this paper.5 distances of each grid respect to these two projects moderate against. Therefore. Many different defuzzification methods have been proposed and used [12]. Results therefore we can kind of consider the distance far. Inference. and Defuzzification method mass to represent the volume mass in mechanical After describing the problem in linguistic terms using system calculation for simplicity for simplicity and membership functions and fuzzy rules. based on the membership functions in Figure 2.3. The centroid method is the most from the highway. Fuzzification. as the crisp output representing the membership However. the distance is really moderately close. There may be situations where radius about 1 kilometer for our simulation which is the output of a fuzzy process needs to be a single shown in figure 6. We only are measured and are indicated as input to our fuzzy want to know whether we should accept or reject the model. Let the output described by membership function µ(p). a system and are indicted as a preference value for defuzzification process is used to convert the fuzzy each utilization site. All fuzzy rules may result in 0. we choose one of the North-Eastern not quite. final decision making.2 strongly against. The distance has 0. then we will say that the distance has 0 membership value for very close and cannot be considered very close at all. The area is divided into 9*9 grids scalar quantity as opposed to a fuzzy set. Eqn. The centroid rule approach can compromise and/or resolve the conflicts or inconsistencies of the different preferences of decision making. therefore. For example.2 membership value for far. The whole process is need to convert the 200 meters into linguistic terms shown in figure (4) as follow: such as very close in order to use the fuzzy inference techniques. Similarly. we can use is often a good approximation. Figure 5 shows satellite After the fuzzy inference process. according an infrastructure. Therefore.7 strongly prefer. the fuzzy rule inference based on different an urban pole project which are shown in plot.(1) p* = ∫ µ(p). The crisp value p* representing the membership function can be described by the centroid method shown in Eqn. the decision is not only based on some specific points of the membership curves but on the entire membership functions under consideration. We defuzzification methods. Fuzzy Inference Engine close.3. For and there is a highway construction project and also example. Surface of such a preference value back to the actual scrip output value for the values are shown in figures 7-9. p* is used fuzzy logic operations to compute and infer decisions. such as 5 miles function µ(p). Ghaen which is under developing in the fuzzy rule inference process. which is a crisp decision. if the measured distance is 1200 meters. Results are gotten from defuzzification decision. These membership values will later be used cities in IRAN.(1) has been used to compute the center of gravity of a volume mass in different engineering areas. 0. the actual measurement. The center of gravity is then used as a point 4 .

Industrial Grid Figure 9. residential load growth along the highway and also very near to urban pole is too low. Residential preference value surface Figure 11. Commercial preference value surface Figure 12. Residential Grid Figure 7. Load growths of future years for 3 utilizations are shown in figures 10 to 13 in gray scale meshes. Black grids are respected to high preference and high load growth and white grids are respected to low preference and low load growth. As it is shown for example in figure 10. Commercial Grid Figure 8. Figure 6. Industry preference value surface 5 . Typical area of simulation Figure 10.

for using real data of one of its projects and also [13] B. Rackliffe. Michael V. The approach has been discussed in terms of ease of [11] Robert N. No. Prentice Hall. IEEE Transactions on System. CRC Press information for spatial distribution load forecasting. Hahn Tram. 1992." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. Fewer p.N.40-43. June 1984. Kosko. PAS-103. Fuzzy System. ESRI. Fuzzy Logic with Engineering consultant company in electrical engineering in IRAN Applications. can have significant interactions and nonlinearities. Hahn Tram. 7. relationship is systematically described by the fuzzy rule (FAM table in our case). pp. Buri. This [6] H. Ross. “A Mehtodology Using Fuzzy proposed scheme can provide distribution planners Logic to Optimize Feedforward Artificial Neural other alternatives to aggregate their information for Network Configurations. Three linguistic variables have been used to describe distance and five linguistic variables [8] H. EH0361-6-PWR. May. 1995. Their Systems. spatial load forecasting. 1992. pp. W.5. vol. "Short-Range complexity of the problem. In the fuzzy logic approach. "Comparison have been used to describe preference. 1992.1190-1197.5. Mo-yuen Chow. Conclusion No. Vol.L.” straightforward manner to include heuristics into the IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery. Willis.6. Fuzzy logic membership functions and fuzzy rules are “Spatial Load Forecasting. heuristic implementation and feature resolution. pp. J. Northcote-Green. No. implement experience and intuition into a computer program. vol. In [2] H. 1. Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems: A AZAD University for whole helps. 6. Victor H. Man. 1992." Fuzzy logic information fusion separates the Canada Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering. distance is described by Tests of Fourteen Distribution Load Forecasting three membership functions. June 1984. 1996. L. Tram. “Distribution Load describe to input-output relationship of the actual Forecasting.E. Steve Briggs. around the environments before making final decision. the most important [12] Timothy J. EH0361-6-PWR. Discussion References The fuzzy rule approach is designed to closely [1] H. Lee Willis." IEEE Tutorial on Power Distribution process in real life that we consider the preference Planning. no. and Cybernetics. 6. spatial load forecasting land selection criteria. Note that the increase in linguistic variables used will also increase the dimension and [9] H. 3. [3] H. "Distribution Load approach is much closer to people’s decision making Forcasting. H. Tram.D. Quintana. 17. R. [7] Hesham K. G. pp. April 1995. No. 24-42. and fuzzy rules. Lee. the preference calculation [5] Understanding GIS. "Analytic spatial electric load forecasting methods: a survey.B. Northcote-Green. Willis. 7. Engel. p. Acknowledgment The author thanks MOSHANIR. October 1987. J. Vol.N.” IEEE Computer Applications designed to provide a simple technique to directly in Power. The and Larry Windingland. 1992. Dynamical Systems Approach to Machine Intelligence. The membership functions and fuzzy rules [4] H. Michael J. and preference is Methods. Industrial Electronics Handbook. 760-768. In order to Tests of Fourteen Distribution Load Forecasting further increase the performance resolution of the Methods. in the fuzzy logic formulation provide an intuitive and “Computerized Methods for Analysis of Impact of Demand Side Management on Distribution Systems. 1190-1197. information fusion step into membership functions Vol. introduced. Willis. Lee Willis. 1306-1312. The relationship Planning. 1994. H. Powell. pp. 24. August 1992. Terraz. more linguistic variables can be Systems. "IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and fuzzy logic approach. Lee Willis. IEEE Tutorial on Power Distribution problem by using linguistic terms. Lee Willis. McGraw Hill.” IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and described by five membership functions. 6 . mistakes can be made.E. is based on the entire profile of the membership functions rather than base on point values. PAS-103.D. Load Forecasting for Distribution System Planning-An Improved Method for Extrapolating Feeder Load Growth. “Comparison the fuzzy logic approach. Sharpe.1236. This paper has proposed and described the general methodology to use fuzzy logic to fuse the available [10] Mo-yuen Chow.

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