Spatial Electric Load Analysis for Substation Siting and Load Balancing

At United Power, the engineering and GIS groups were tasked
with answering the following question, “Will we have the
infrastructure to support future demand in 5 or 10 years?” We
turned to spatial technologies to provide management with an
accurate and detailed GIS-generated load density forecast. Demand
and energy readings from CIS were integrated with GIS to produce
base grids for summer and winter peaks. The analysts combined base
load grids with 2 forecast sources to produce long-range forecast
raster grids. The complex analysis process was performed with
multiple Model Builder models for consistency and repeatability.
ESRI’s Spatial Analyst extension performed raster analysis. By
maintaining a spatial history of power consumption, accurate data is
readily available for a plethora of statistical studies and testing what-
if scenarios. Using GIS technologies for planning purposes increases
forecast accuracy and efficiency and creates a roadmap for future
land and ROW acquisitions.

Spatial Electric Load Analysis for Substation
Siting and Load Balancing

David Hollema – GIS Analyst
Jared Weeks – Electrical Engineer

United Power, Inc.
Brighton, Colorado

ESRI EGUG 2008

Today’s agenda

▪ Who we are
▪ Long range forecast goals
▪ Spatial load analysis basics
▪ Components of spatial load forecasting
▪ Load center prediction
▪ Results and looking ahead

United Power Facts
ƒ Rural electric
cooperative
headquartered in
Brighton, CO
ƒ Incorporated in
October of 1938
ƒ Wires hot in 1940 to
750 customers
ƒ Nearly 65,000
customers today
covering 900 square
miles
ƒ Historically fast
growing – up to
5000 new accounts
per year
ƒ Among the top 10
fastest growing
coops nationwide

Long range forecast goals and tasks ▪ Spatially project coincidental peak load over the next 10 years ▪ Define substation influence areas ▪ Forecast and locate future load centers for substation placement ▪ Determine substation transformer upgrades ▪ Update every 3 years (modular) .

What is spatial load analysis? ▪ A process of looking at historical electric power consumption with a spatial (e.g. mapping) component – Seasonal peak focus – Demand (kW) or energy (kWh) ▪ Typically includes forecasting for substation siting ▪ Change detection analysis ▪ Temporal study ▪ Used to optimize current electric distribution system .

000 250.000 150.000 250.000 100.000 300.000 350. Monthly MonthlyCoincident CoincidentPeak PeakDemand (kW) Demand(kW) 1 0 50.000 150.000 300.000 200.000 19 99 0 50.000 100.000 200.000 96 6 1 19 99 97 7 1 19 99 98 8 1 19 99 99 9 2 20 00 Monthly 00 0 2 20 00 01 1 2 20 00 MonthlyDemand 02 2 2 20 00 03 3 Demand--1998 2 1998to 20 00 04 4 NO SPATIAL COMPONENT 2 20 00 to2008 Summer Peak 05 5 2008 2 20 00 06 6 2 20 00 07 7 2 Winter Peak 20 00 08 8 2 20 00 09 9 .000 350.

Summer Peak Demand Linear Forecast Summer Peak Demand Linear Forecast 600000 600000 500000 500000 NO SPATIAL COMPONENT 400000 Peak Demand (kW) 400000 Peak Demand (kW) 300000 300000 5yr trend 200000 5yr trend 200000 Historic Historic 100000 100000 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 .

Base Map 2002 2002 ▪ Historical snapshot of peak seasonal load ▪ Peak load density map 2.com) ▪ Provider of housing data ▪ Used to forecast residential growth 3.Spatial Load Forecast Approach – 3 components 1. Metrostudy Data (www. Point Loads ▪ Internal knowledge of future large commercial loads from district reps .metrostudy.

Base map preparation – “need to know where you’ve been to know where you’re going” Meter Reading Extraction Load Table Preparation Must be repeatable and modular! Spatial Join Rasterization Base Map Preparation .

Meter Reading Extraction ▪ Primary input for entire analysis ▪ Interested in 1 moment in time with coincident peak demand. settle for Meter Read-type Breakdown 30 day data (billed 10% monthly) ▪ Oracle view used to Manual Read Carrier Line AMR extract CIS data to SDE 35% 55% Drive-by AMR instance ▪ Revolving billing cycle makes capturing monthly peak difficult Base Map Preparation .

GOTHAM BI_TYPE_SERVICE ON (BI_AR.GOTHAM BI_HISTORY ON ((BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_TYPE_SRV=BI_TYPE_SERVICE.GOTHAM BI_AR ON BI_CONSUMER.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC AS SERVLOC.BI_TYPE_SRV)) AND (BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR)) INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC !='333305250' --removes Spindle Hill Energy Peak Plant fed off transmission GROUP BY BI_SRV_LOC.BI_HIST_USAGE@CIS. MAX(BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_REV_YRMO) /* BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_AR@CIS.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR)) AND (BI_HISTORY.BI_ACCT) INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_TYPE_SRV=BI_HISTORY.BI_PRES_MTR_RDG AS KWH */ FROM (((((CIS07022.BI_CONSUMER@CIS.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR=BI_SRV_LOC.BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1@CIS.'SC5') --removes Golden Aluminum (fed off transmission) and Frederick/Evanston area primary meters --such as 3236-2652-0 and 3224-4552-0 (double-counted load) AND SUBSTR(BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC Base Map Preparation . MAX(BI_HIST_USAGE. */ MIN(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_BILL_DT_TM) WHERE BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR=BI_HISTORY.BI_ACCT=BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_ACCT) AND (BI_AR.BI_HIST_CD)) AND (BI_HISTORY.GOTHAM BI_SRV_LOC ON BI_TYPE_SERVICE.GOTHAM BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1 ON BI_CONSUMER.GOTHAM BI_HIST_USAGE ON ((((BI_HISTORY.'SC1'.BI_ACCT=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_ACCT) AND (BI_HISTORY. BI_SRV_LOC.GOTHAM BI_CONSUMER INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_CUR_HIST_SW=N'Y' AND BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_HIST_CD=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_LNAME) AS LAST_NAME. SUM(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_HISTORY@CIS. /* BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_TYPE_SRV=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_TYPE_SRV)) AND (BI_HISTORY.BI_REV_YRMO=200807 AND BI_RATE_SCHED NOT IN ('SC0'. CIS GIS MAX(BI_HIST_USAGE. MAX(BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_PRES_READ_DT) AS READ_DATE.BI_ACCT) AS ACCT_NBR.BI_RATE_SCHED).BI_TYPE_SERVICE@CIS.*/ MAX(BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1. /* BI_HIST_USAGE. MAX(BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_SRV_STAT_CD) AS SRV_STAT_CD.BI_FNAME) AS FIRST_NAME.BI_ADDR_TYPE=N' ' AND BI_HIST_USAGE. SDE Oracle view into CIS database SELECT MAX(BI_CONSUMER.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR) INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_CUR_HIST_SW.BI_VWN_CO_ACCT) INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_SRV_LOC@CIS.1) !='6' AND BI_SRV_LOC.BI_BILL_DMD_HIST) AS DEMAND_KW.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC.5. MAX(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_ADDR_TYPE.BI_TYPE_SRV)) INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_SORT_NAME) AS NAME.BI_BILL_DT_TM=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_ACCT) AND (BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_USAGE) AS KWH.BI_ACCT=BI_AR.BI_ACCT=BI_HISTORY.BI_ACCT=BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.

Base Map Preparation .

Load table preparation ▪ Engineering calculation fields added ▪ Some meters billed by usage (kWh). others by usage and demand (kW) ▪ Estimate coincident peak kW using kWh Monthly Demand & Energy.July 1998 to July 2008 400 160 Thousands Millions Monthly Coincident Peak Demand Monthly Coincident Energy (kWh) 350 140 300 120 250 100 (kW) 200 80 150 60 100 40 50 Demand (kW) 20 Energy (kWh) 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Base Map Preparation .

Noncoincidental 30 Average _ Load Peak _ Power Noncoincidental= 3 kWh LF Energy Average _ Power = Biling _ Period 25 Peak _ PowerCoincidental = CF *Hours Peak _Biling Power _ PeriodNoncoincidental 2.5 Peak Load .5 Average Power 10 1 5 0. Energy (kWh) to Coincidental Power (kW) 1 Peak Power - 2 3 Energy Average Power Peak Power Coincidental 3.5 20 2 Peak Load .5 Typical United Power System 0 Peak 0 00 00 00 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 0: 2: 4: 6: 8: 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Base Map Preparation .Coincidental Energy (kWh) Power (kW) 15 1.

3 2 2 Lo ad Fa cto r (L F) = .5 0 0 :0 0 :0 0 :0 0 :0 0 :0 0 :0 0 2 : :0 0 4 : :0 0 :0 0 0: : 00 6: : 00 8: : 00 1 2 2: 0 1 4 4: 0 20 0 : 0 2 2 2: 0 10 0 :0 16 6: 0 18 8: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 00 0 00 00 00 0 2 4 6 8 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Tim e ( hr) Tim e ( hr) Base Map Preparation .6 0 1 .04 1 .5 3.5 Lo ad Fa cto r (L F) = .5 C oin cid ent Fac tor ( CF ) = .6 0 1.04 A v era ge P o wer A v era ge P o wer 1 1 0.20 3 .5 C oin cid ent Fac tor ( CF ) = . Understanding Load Factors and Coincident Factors 3.5 0.5 1.3 2 Power (kW) 2 Power (kW) 1 .5 3 .5 2.20 3 3 2.5 1 .

Use the most accurate sources of information ▪ Residential Peak _ PowerCoincidental − R = LF * Average _ Power * CF ▪ Industrial Peak _ PowerCoincidental − I = Peak _ Power * CF LF Peak Power - Energy Average Power Peak Power Coincidental CF Base Map Preparation .

Load table preparation ModelBuilder model Base Map Preparation .

Load table preparation ModelBuilder model continued… Base Map Preparation .

Base Map Preparation .

demand (kW). 500. and 1000 ft grid cells Base Map Preparation . 3307-1713-0 3307-2013-0 S 3307-1213-0 3307-1313-0 3307-1513-0 3307-1813-0 3307-2213-0 HEN 3307-2513-0 3307-2613-0 A D 3307-1713-0 3307-2013-0 3307-2012-0 S ND AR 3307-1213-0 3307-1313-0 3307-1513-0 3307-1612-1 3307-1813-0 3307-2213-0 HEN OAH 3307-2513-0 3307-2613-0 3307-2612-0 AN ST D LEV 3307-1512-1 3307-1812-1 3307-2012-0 3307-2212-1 DO RE AR 3307-1312-1 AH ET 3307-2612-0 3307-1612-1 3307-1912-0 OU LEV 3307-1512-1 3307-1812-1 3307-2212-1 ST 3307-1312-1 3307-1512-0 3307-1612-0 RE HB 3307-1812-0 3307-1912-0 3307-2212-0 3307-2412-0 E 3307-2512-0T OU 3307-1312-0 Spatial Join 3307-1512-0 3307-1612-0 3307-1911-1 NC HB 3307-1812-0 3307-2212-0 3307-2412-0 3307-2512-0 + 3307-1312-0 3307-1511-0 3307-1611-1 3307-1811-0 RA 3307-1911-1 3307-2111-0 3307-2411-0 NC 3307-1311-0 3307-2611-0 3307-1511-0 3307-1611-1 3307-1911-0 AIN 3307-1811-0 RA 3307-1611-0 3307-2111-0 3307-2411-0 3307-1311-0 3307-1411-0 3307-1711-0 3307-2611-0 VR 3307-1911-0 3307-2310-0 3307-2410-1 AIN 3307-2110-1 3307-1310-0 3307-1411-0 3307-1611-0 3307-1910-1 3307-2510-1 INT 3307-1711-0 VR 3307-2310-0 3307-2410-1 3307-1410-13307-1510-1 3307-1710-0 3307-2110-1 3307-1310-0 3307-2410-0 SA 3307-1910-1 3307-2510-1 INT 3307-1210-0 3307-1510-1 3307-2110-0 3307-2210-0 3307-1410-1 3307-1910-0 3307-1710-0 3307-2410-03307-2510-0 SA 3307-1410-0 3307-1510-0 3307-2110-0 3307-2210-0 3307-1210-0 3307-1709-1 3307-1910-0 3307-2510-0 3307-1209-1 3307-1410-0 3307-1510-0 3307-1809-1 3307-2109-1 3307-2209-0 3307-2409-0 3307-1709-1 3307-2509-0 3307-1209-1 3307-1409-0 3307-1609-0 3307-1709-0 3307-1809-1 3307-2109-1 3307-2209-0 3307-2409-0 3307-2309-0 3307-2509-0 3307-1209-0 3307-1409-0 3307-1609-0 3307-1809-0 3307-2109-0 3307-2208-1 3307-1709-0 3307-2508-0 3307-2309-0 3307-1209-0 3307-1408-0 3307-1608-0 3307-1708-0 3307-1809-0 3307-2109-0 3307-2208-1 3307-2508-0 3307-1208-0 3307-2308-0 ▪ GIS + iVUE load 3307-1408-0 3307-1608-0 3307-1708-0 3307-1808-1 3307-2108-0 3307-2208-0 3307-2408-0 3307-1208-0 3307-1408-1 3307-1708-1 3307-2308-0 3307-1808-1 3307-1808-0 3307-2108-0 3307-2208-0 3307-2408-0 3307-1508-0 3307-1207-0 3307-1408-1 3307-1708-1 3307-2107-0 3307-1508-0 3307-1808-0 SANDY RIDGE COURT 3307-2407-0 3307-1207-0 3307-2107-0 3307-1207-1 SANDY RIDGE COURT 3307-2407-0 3307-2007-0 3307-1207-1 3307-1306-0 3307-1406-0 3307-1506-0 3307-1606-0 3307-1706-0 3307-1906-0 3307-2306-0 3307-2406-0 3307-2106-0 3307-2206-1 data + vector 3307-1206-0 3307-1606-1 3307-1806-0 3307-2007-0 3307-1306-0 3307-1406-03307-1506-0 3307-1606-0 3307-1706-0 3307-1906-0 3307-2306-0 3307-2406-0 3307-2106-0 3307-1206-0 3307-1606-1 3307-1806-0 3307-2206-1 SAGE STREET SAGE STREET 3307-1205-0 3307-1405-0 3307-1705-0 3307-1905-0 3307-2005-0 3307-2105-0 3307-2305-0 3307-2405-1 3307-2605-0 3307-1505-1 3307-1805-0 grid 3307-1305-0 3307-1205-0 3307-1505-0 3307-1605-0 3307-2205-0 3307-2505-0 3307-2405-0 3307-2405-1 3307-1405-0 3307-1505-1 3307-1705-0 3307-1905-0 3307-2005-0 3307-2105-0 3307-2305-0 3307-2605-0 3307-1305-0 3307-1505-0 3307-1605-0 3307-1805-0 3307-2205-0 3307-2405-0 3307-2505-0 3307-2003-0 3307-2303-0 3307-2003-0 3307-2303-0 ▪ Summarizes for each grid cell. and coincident peak demand (kW) 250. usage (kWh). + number of customers.

Spatial join ModelBuilder model Base Map Preparation .

Spatial join ModelBuilder model continued… Base Map Preparation .

and perform algebraic computations ▪ ESRI’s Spatial Analyst used for raster raster manipulation Base Map Preparation . manipulate. Rasterization ▪ ArcToolbox tool “Polygon to Raster” converts vector polygon feature vector class to geotif ▪ Raster files are much easier to analyze.

20.000 Base Map Preparation .55 N 56 .20 Wheat Ridge 133 .001 .January Louisville Nederland Marshall Superior Eldora Thornton Pinecliffe Eldorado Springs Wondervu Crescent Eastlake Broomfield Henderson Rollinsville East Portal Northglenn Denver International Airport Commerce City Federal Heights Leyden Westminster Dupont Western Hills Adams City Central City Coincident Arvada Demand (kW) 101 .85 1.500 36 .40.150 Bennett Edgewater 151 .70 501 .001 .000 71 .0 116 .132 Empire Golden 1 .000 86 .July Mead Platteville Hygiene Longmont 2007 Peak Demand Firestone Keenesburg Niwot Frederick Dacono Fort Lupton Hudson Erie Valmont Wattenberg Boulder Lochbuie Lafayette Brighton Winter .1.35 0 5 10 Miles 251 .100 20.115 -9 . Raster Results Berthoud Gilcrest Summer .250 Watki ns 21 .

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002-2008 coincident peak timeline Base Map Preparation .

2002 versus 2008 coincident peak – Plains territory 2002 2002 2008 2008 Base Map Preparation .

500 2.500 Closings 4.500 Function FunctionfitfittotoAnnual Annual 2.000 2.000 1.000 3.500 3. Metrostudy Data 5.500 4.500 averages Rolling 1.000 2.000 3.500 3.000 NumberofofClosings 4.000 4.000 5.500 RollingAnnual AnnualClosings Closings 1.000 averages Number 1.000 500 500 00 4Q03 4Q03 4Q04 4Q04 4Q05 4Q05 4Q06 4Q06 4Q07 4Q07 4Q08 4Q08 4Q09 4Q09 4Q10 4Q10 4Q11 4Q11 4Q12 4Q12 4Q13 4Q13 4Q14 4Q14 4Q15 4Q15 Quarter Quarter(Q) (Q) ▪ Survey of subdivision data ▪ Updated quarterly ▪ Spatial reference ▪ Annual closings fit to a 5 year sine wave Metrostudy Forecast .

257 543 0 0 543 4.800 4. Wattenberg Lochbuie Lafayette Lochbuie Louisville Lafayette 42 Louisville ÉÉ ·Æ 470 ·Æ 7 · Æ 7 Brighton Brighton § ¨¦§ 76 ¨¦ 76 uperior 42 uperior · Æ 470 Thornton ▪ Future platted subdivisions Thornton Æ Broomfield Broomfield Eastlake Eastlake Henderson Henderson forecasted to go online based on Æ ·Æ 121 Northglenn Northglenn ÉÉ 44 44 Denver International Airport onsite activity. en · Æ121 Federal Heights 2 2 ·Æ Commerce City · Æ Commerce City Denver International Airport en ·Æ Æ· 95 95 Federal HeightsDupont Westminster Westminster Dupont Qtr Lot Future Vacant Survey Equip Street Prelim Record Excavation Active Front Lot Land Stakes on Site Paving Future 0'-80' 4. Metrostudy – 2017 forecast Berthoud Berthoud Gilcrest ▪ MetroStudy provieds point data ·Æ 60 · Æ60 Gilcrest Mead Mead Platteville ·Æ 66 Platteville ▪ Circular shapes are from ene ene · Æ 66 Longmont Longmont £ ¤£ 85 multiplying the estimated area ¤ 85 § ¨¦§ 25 Firestone of a lot by the number of lots wot £ ¤£ ¨¦ 25 Firestone Frederick Keenesburg Keenesburg wot 287 ¤287 Frederick Dacono Dacono ·Æ 52 Fort Lupton Fort Lupton Hudson Hudson and converting it into the area · Æ52 Erie Erie Wattenberg of a circle.257 0 Future 0'-0' 400 400 0 0 0 0 0 400 Future 70'-80' 104 0 104 0 0 0 104 0 Future 0'-0' 429 429 0 0 429 0 0 0 Future 0'-0' 952 952 0 952 0 0 0 0 Metrostudy Forecast .

Point Loads ▪ Information gleaned by the in-house staff about large commercial/industrial customers ▪ 3-5 year accuracy ▪ Spatially represented ▪ Forecasted annually Point Load Forecast .

2 40000kW Pioneer Village 1748kW Roggen Suncor Energy Upgrade THF Firestone AVA Solar 0kW Anadarko No.S. Point loads – 2007 forecast Berthoud Gilcrest £ ¤ 34 · Æ60 WCR 34 & HW 25 .5kW · Æ95 Westminster Dupont Point Load Forecast .220 LLC Waste Water Treatment Plant 0kW 500kW Mead High Rise Aurora Dairy Platteville Semcrude 500kW 2000kW 500kW Hygiene Mead H. 3 Denver International Airport 500kW Leyden 1192. 1 1000kW 10000kW 10000kW Firestone ¤ £ 36 Niwot 287 £ ¤ 25 § ¨¦ Frederick Hudson Correctional F acility Boulder Scientific Keenesburg · Æ 119 Dacono Fort Lupton 1600kW Hudson 3000kW Prospec t Valley Denver Water Pump Facility · Æ 52 Erie 2000kW Vestas Valmont Wattenberg 18000kW É 15 7 Palisade Park LEED's Manufacturing Boulder 7· Æ Lafayette 2000kW Mc Whinney 7000kW 2500kW Northland Village PUD Adams County Qt House Louisville Brighton É 42 470 · Æ 5000kW 1800kW Marshall Superior · Æ 2 Thornton Aspen Reserve Adams Crossing · Æ 79 Eldorado Springs 372kW 2375kW Broomfield Eastlake Henderson · Æ93 · Æ 128 Northglenn Walmart Otho Stuart 540kW É 44 0kW · Æ 72 · Æ 121 Federal Heights South Adams Water . Life Bridge 750kW 66 · Æ Hotels Longmont 500kW Warehouse 300kW 750kW £ ¤ 85 Anadarko No.Pumping Station Brighton High school No.

Map Algebra Forecast Process 2007 Base Map Metrostudy + Point Loads + x (scale factor dependent on year) .

pre-intersect w ith grid Metrostudy . 500 500 Forecasted Com/Ind Loads Forecasted Com/Ind Loads Historic Data (Plains) Historic Data (Plains) Load (MW) 400 Load (MW) ▪ No double counting! 400 300 300 – Commercial .Explanation of scale factor ▪ Scale factor based of a 700 700 Linearly Trended Grow th linear trend of 604 600 Linearly Trended Grow th 604 600 Hybrid Forcast (Plains) Hybrid Forcast (Plains) Metrostudy .pre-intersect w ith grid historic data. 200 200 281 281 Industrial Point loads 100 100 134 134 124 124 – Metro Study 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 500 450 + + = 400 350 + + = 300 281 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 .

July Mead Platteville Hygiene Longmont Firestone Keenesburg Niwot Frederi ck Dacono Fort Lupton Hudson Erie Valmont Wattenberg Boulder Lochbuie Lafayette Louisvi lle Brighton Marshall Superior Thornton rado Springs Broomfield Eastlake Henderson Northglenn Denver International Airport Federal Heights Commerce City Leyden Westminster Dupont Western Hills Adams City Arvada .2017 Plains Forecast 2017 Peak Demand Berthoud Gi lcrest Summer .

Load Centers: Substation influence areas ÉÉ 60 60 ·Æ 60 · Æ ƒHeavily loaded £¤ 60 36 ÉÉ 56 56 ÉÉ£ ¤85£ 256 256 ¤85 £ ¤ 36 feeders no more than 4 miles in length Del Camino Del Camino ƒPhysical Barriers ·Æ ÔÔ 66 Slater Slater · (( Æ 66 ÔÔ ( ƒInterstates Rinn Valley ( Davis Davis Homestead ÔÔ ÔÔ (Rinn Valley Homestead ƒRailroads § ¨¦§ 25 ¨¦ ( ÔÔ 25 ( Hudson ( Hudson £ ¤£ ƒRivers ÔÔ 287 ¤287 ( ( (Dacono Fulton ·Æ ÔÔ Coal Mine (Dacono 52 Fulton Coal Mine · (( Æ 52 ƒUtilize existing Brighton-Dist Brighton-Dist Henry Lake/Lochbuie Henry Lake/Lochbuie ÔÔ ( infrastructure Storm Chaser ÔÔ ÉÉ 157 157 Erie Erie ( Storm Chaser ( ( Xylophone Xylophone Ô ÔÔ Parkway ( ·Æ Platte( Valley ÔÔ Ô 7 ÔÔ ÉÉ 42 Parkway ( (Green7 · Æ Platte( Valley Bromley ( 42 (Green ( Bromley ÉÉ 170 ÔÔ ÔÔ Henderson ( 170 ( Henderson § ¨¦¨¦ 76 ( Barr Lake ÉÉ § ( Barr Lake ÔÔ 76 ( Prairie Center ÔÔ 22 ·Æ 119 ( ( 22 Prairie Center ·Æ 79 Lincoln Hills Lincoln Hills · Æ 119 ( Crescent Crescent ·Æ 128 · Æ128 Silver Saddle · Æ 79 Silver Saddle ·( ·( Æ ÔÔ ÔÔ ÔÔ ÉÉ ( ( ÔÔ 93 ( 44 ( ÔÔ ·Æ · (( Æ 72 Æ 72 93 ( 44 ( Reunion Reunion Blue Mountain ÔÔ (É Blue Mountain 46 Ralston Creek Ralston Creek (É 46 É É 224 ·Æ 470 · Æ470 ÉÉ ÉÉÉ 224 265 53 265 53 270 ·Æ 121 ÉÉ 270 35 · Æ121 É 35 ·Æ · Æ 58 58 ·Æ Æ·£ 95 § ¨¦§ 70 ¨¦ 70 ¤40£ ¤40 95 £ ¤6£ ¤6 ÉÉ ·Æ · Æ 2 2 ÉÉ 30 30 ÉÉ Load Center Forecast .

Current feeder extents £ ¤34 É 402 · Æ 257 ƒCurrent switching É 60 · Æ 60 É56 ɤ £85 256 verses optimal £ ¤ switching 36 configurations ·ÆDel( Camino Ô 66 Platteville Ô ( ƒSwitching changes as Rinn Valley Ô ( § ¨¦ 25 Hudson substations come online £¤ Ô ( Frederick Ô 287 Dacono ( Ô ( Fulton · Æ Ô 52 ( Brighton Dist Ô ( Lochbuie Ô É 157 Platte Valley ( Parkway Ô Bromley Ô ( Green · Æ ( Ô 7 Ô É 42 ( ( Barr Lake É 170 Henderson Ô Ô ( Lincoln Hills ( § ¨¦ 76 Ô ( Crescent É Ô 22 · Æ 119 ( · Æ 128 Riverdale Silver Saddle Reunion ·( Æ Ô Ô Ô É Ô 93 ( 44 ( ( Ô · ( Æ 72 Ralston Creek Ô (É 46 É É 224 265 · Æ 470 É É 53 270 · Æ 121 É35 · Æ 58 ·Æ 95 § ¨¦ 70 £ ¤40 Load Center Forecast É .

Find Load Center ModelBuilder Model .

Existing Ô ( Substation . Load Center . Load Center .2017 influence Ô . Influence Areas and Load Centers Legend Legend •Substation !> Plains Dist.Existing boundaries Del Camino Del Camino defined Slater !> Ô Slater !> ( Ô !> ( !> •Heavily loaded Ô ( Ô ( Davis Davis !> !> Homestead !> Homestead !> feeders 4 miles Rinn Valley !>( Ô Rinn Valley !>( max Ô Ô ( Hudson Ô ( Hudson !> !> Ô !>( Ô Dacono!>( •Physical Barriers Ô Coal Mine ( Fulton !> Ô ( Dacono Fulton !> Ô Coal Mine ( !> Ô !> Brighton-Dist ( •Interstates Brighton-Dist Storm Chaser Henry Lake/Lochbuie •Railroads ( >! Ô Henry Lake/Lochbuie Erie !> ( !> Storm Chaser !> Legen •Rivers Ô Xylophone Erie !> !> !> ( Ô Xylophone Legen !> Pl Ô !> ( ( !>SuPl Ô Ô !> ( Su Ô Parkway Platte Valley !> ( Ô Bromley !> Parkway ( Ô ( !> Platte Valley Ô Ô ! ( > !>( Bromley !> Ô ( !> Ô ( !> !>( Ô Green Green !> Henderson !> Ô ( Ô (!> Henderson Barr Lake Ô ( Ô (!> Barr Lake Prairie Center Prairie Center !> !> Silver Saddle !> Silver Saddle !> Ô Ô !> ( Ô ( ( Ô Ô !> ( Ô ( ( Reunion Reunion Load Center Forecast .2017 ( !> Substation Plains Dist.

2017 forecasted load centers versus substations ÔÔ ( ( ÔÔ ÔÔ ÔÔ Slater ( ( ( ( Slater ^^^^ ^^^ Del Camino ÔÔ ( ( Del Camino ( ( ^ ÔÔ ( Ô (( Ô ( Ô (( Ô Davis Homestead Davis Homestead ^^^^ ^^^^ ÔÔ ÔÔ Rinn Valley ( ( ^^^^ ( Rinn Valley ( ( ÔÔ ( ÔÔ ( Hudson ( Hudson Dacono ^^^^ Plains video ÔÔ ^^^^ Dacono ( Fulton ÔÔ ( ( Fulton Coal Mine ( ( ^^^^ ÔÔ Coal Mine ( ^^^^ ÔÔ ( ( South video ÔÔ ( ( Brighton‐Dist Erie Brighton‐Dist Storm Chaser ^^^^ Erie ^^^^ Storm Chaser ÔÔ ÔÔ ( ( ^^^^ ÔÔ ( ( ^^^^ (Henry Lake/Lochbuie ÔÔ ( ÔÔ ( ( Parkway ( (Henry Lake/Lochbuie Parkway Xylophone ^^^^ ^^^ Platte Valley Bromley Platte Valley Bromley Xylophone ^^^^ ÔÔ ( ^^^^ ^^^^ ÔÔ ( ( ÔÔ ÔÔ ^( ( ( Green Green Henderson Henderson ( ( Barr Lake Barr Lake ^^^^ ^^^^ ^ ÔÔ ÔÔ ( ( ( Prairie Center ( ( Prairie Center ÔÔ ^^^ Silver Saddle ( Silver Saddle ( ÔÔ ^^^^ ( ^^^^ ÔÔ ÔÔ Ô ( ÔÔ ( ( Ô ( ( ( Reunion ( Reunion ( Load Center Forecast .

4 12 Xylophone .5 42 Parkway .1 53 Davis .2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 .1 27 Dacono .7 13 Green .9 19 Coal Mine . Homestead 5 Influence Area 23 Hudson Load Statistics by Influence Area .0 Erie 8. 5 44 Bromley .4 19 Prairie Center . 4 Load Center Forecast Brighton-Dist 4. 3 18 Fulton .7 24 Slater .7 33 Storm Chaser .9 50 Rinn Valley .7 18 Henry Lake/Lochbuie .2 9.3 26 Del Camino . Power Used (MVA) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Barr Lake 5.6 49 Reunion .5 44 Platte Valley .8 38 Silver Saddle .1 15 Henderson 2007 2012 2017 .

NOAA DMSP Nighttime Lights .

NOAA DMSP Nighttime Lights Berthoud Gilcrest Mead Platteville Hygiene Longmont Firestone Keenesburg Niwot Frederick Dacono Fort Lupton Hudson Prospect Valley Erie Valmont Wattenberg Boulder Lochbuie Lafayette Louisville Brighton Nederland Marshall Superior Eldora Thornton Pinecl iffe Eldorado Springs Wondervu Broomfield Eastlake Henderson Rollinsville Crescent East Portal Northglenn Denver International Airport Federal Heights Commerce City Leyden Dupont Westminster Western Hills Adams City Central City Arvada Mountain View Empire Wheat Ridge Bennett Golden Edgewater Watkins Idaho Springs Denver Aurora Pleasant ViewEdgemont .

Looking ahead… ▪ Make better use of ArcInfo level tools and Spatial Analyst to simplify the process – Use “Point to Raster” tool to convert service points with load directly to raster ▪ Interested in spatial electric load forecasting class for formal education ▪ Explore other forecasting methods including land use classification ▪ Create more empirical models independent of rate structure. – take advantage of data loggers .

2. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting. NM. http://gis. Albuquerque. ▪ Image and Data processing by NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center.esri. CIS NISC iVUE with Oracle back-end ▪ Valenti. Second Edition. ArcGIS Spatial Analyst.Acknowledgements and References ▪ Various folks at United Power ▪ Software systems: ArcGIS 9. .pdf ▪ Willis. Oracle 10g with ArcSDE 9. 2002.2.com/library/userconf/egug2006/papers/spatial- load. Spatial Load Forecasting. presented at ESRI EGUG. Lee. New York: Marcel Dekker. October 2006. Jessica. DMSP data collected by the US Air Force Weather Agency.