RETAIL RESEARCH 13 Jan 2017

HSL Weekly Insight
Week ahead for Nifty with technicals…

Nagaraj Shetti
nagarajs.shetti@hdfcsec.com
Tel-022-30750021

RETAIL RESEARCH P age |1

The positive sequence of higher tops and bottoms has been formed during this upmove. RETAIL RESEARCH P age |2 . It later shifted into intraday choppy trend till the close of day. but the higher bottom was more of a consolidation. there is no formation of any convincing reversal pattern yet as per smaller timeframe. by just entering into the lower end of that gap area. • The important overhead resistance is still intact around 8500-8520 levels (green line) this hurdle could be reached by filling the above mentioned gap area. Therefore. • We are now observing consistent upmoves in Nifty over the last 13-14 sessions and the correction in between was minimal. RETAIL RESEARCH Nifty Daily Timeframe: Observation: • Daily Timeframe: The upside momentum continued in the market today. before showing intraday weakness from the highs today. This pattern doesn’t have any significant predictive value. rather than any reasonable correction. but the Nifty was not able to close with the gains and shifted into choppy trend amidst weak bias. The opening upside gap has been filled completely. This area has been cluster resistance as per the concept of change in polarity. but it has placed at the higher levels. • Nifty has now reached the key overhead resistance of previous opening downside gap of 11th Nov (green and blue dashed horizontal lines). • Nifty opened today with upside gap of around 50 points and slipped into intraday weakness during early part of trade. which is indicating a strength of upside momentum. as per smaller and larger timeframe. • This is positive indication suggesting a lack of selling interest of recent times. without disturbing the underlying uptrend. hence we expect further continuation of uptrend after small consolidation during early next week. • We observe a formation of negative candle today. The said down gap is still unfilled. • Daily 14 period RSI is now sustaining above 60 levels.

• Though. Summing Up: • The underlying trend of Nifty as per smaller and larger timeframe is still up and there is no indications of any reversal yet. the sentiment as per larger timeframe has not changed much and we believe this upmove as per weekly timeframe could probably end in the next couple of weeks and the new larger lower top could be formed (previous few such lower top formations post sharp upside bounce backs have been marked in X). the lower levels of 7900-7880 level is now going to be an important bottom for now (double bottom or W type bottom reversal). the intermediate downtrend is still intact and the present upside bounce back could still be considered as a bear market pullback rally (as per weekly and monthly timeframe). • For next week. which has surpassed the key overhead resistance of around 8350 levels (green dashed horizontal line. Nifty moved up sharply in the last three weeks.9%. connecting the previous swing lows as per change in polarity concept). • With the evidence of strong upside bounce back recently. • Nifty is now advancing towards the next important hurdle of around 8520 levels (blue line. • Though. Hence this hurdle could possibly lead to some intraweek profit taking from the highs by next week. Nifty witnessed sharp follow-through upmove this week and closed with the gains of around 1. RETAIL RESEARCH P age |3 . Nifty moved up sharply now. • A long range bull candle has been formed this week. Though upside bounce back of the last three weeks is remarkable during intermediate down trend. But. as per larger degree in the next couple of weeks. as per w-o-w basis. Nifty closing above the said hurdle this week could be cheering factor for the bulls ahead. Nifty is expected to show further upmove after minor consolidation during early part of next week and could make an attempt to violate the key overhead resistance of around 8500-8520 levels. there is no indications of any reversal yet in the market. as per the concept of change in polarity). RETAIL RESEARCH Nifty Weekly Timeframe: • Weekly Timeframe: After forming a confusing type of candlestick pattern like high wave during last week. but is likely to form a lower top.

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