INVESTMENT IDEA 23 Dec 2016

PCG RESEARCH
Federal Bank Ltd.

Industry CMP Recommendation Add on Dips to band Target Time Horizon
BANKS Rs.65 BUY Rs. 55-60 Rs. 75 1 Year

HDFC Scrip Code FEDBAN
The Federal Bank Limited incorporated Travancore Federal Bank Limited to cater to the banking needs of
BSE Code 500469 Travancore Province. Today, Federal Bank is spread its wings across India with almost 1252 branches,
NSE Code FEDERALBNK 1607 ATMs and ~7.8mn Customer base. The Bank operates in four segments: treasury operations,
wholesale banking, retail banking and other banking operations.
Bloomberg FBIN
CMP as on 23 Dec 16 65 Investment Rationale:
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 3444
Net Interest Income (NII) grew at a pace of 8% CAGR over years FY12-16 whereas loan portfolio
Face Value (Rs) 2 registered 11% CAGR growth during the same period. The bank’s loan book contains 41% of retail
Equity O/S (mn) 172 advances including agri followed by 34% of wholesales advances and 25% of SME loans.
Market Cap (Rs mn) 111927
In Q2FY17 India banks have witnessed some traction in the deposit growth and reported 17% growth and
Book Value (Rs) 47.1 going further the bank will have huge deposit flow on the back of recent Government’s decision of
Avg. 52 Week Volumes 8319855 Demonetization. The CASA ratio of the bank had shown growth of 31% in this quarter, and likely to show
an excellent growth this quarter.
52 Week High 82
In the recent management interview bank has informed that they are witnessing good growth in e-
52 Week Low 41
transactions post demonetization. Every quarter their digital and mobile banking transactions had been
doubling. But this time round, they have doubled in a month’s time. So the per ticket transaction costs had
Shareholding Pattern (%) come down.
Promoters -- Demonetization is such path breaking reform that its effects will keep reverberating for the banking sector
for years to come. Apart from obvious benefits of increase in deposits, it is yet to be ascertained how much
Institutions 50.4
it will affect the credit growth of the banking industry. Whether this event will lead to wide-scale disruptive
Non Institutions 47.8 in the economy for long or its impact will reverse in a quarters or two is difficult to forecast.
Other 1.8 In such an environment, professional run small private sector Banks are an obvious beneficiary, especially
who are experiencing broad based growth like Federal Bank. We like Federal bank because its relatively
better asset quality show on the backdrop of limited stress list and restructured book, Stable margins, and
PCG Rating* Yellow Higher fee contribution. We will revise our estimates once Q3 results are out and we have further clarity on
* Refer Rating explanation demonetization. We recommend invest gradually between small tranches between 60 to 55, for a target of
Rs. 75 , 1.4 times expected FY18 book value, a 25% appreciation in a years’ time. .
Nisha Sankhala
nishaben.shankhala@hdfcsec.com

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |1

7% YoY/QoQ.2 10. and Higher fee contribution. lower proportion of restructured book and focus towards better rated corporates.2 54. Stable margins. However. particularly in the corporate segment. The bank is well capitalized with capital adequacy ratio of 12. the bank delivered meaningful control over slippages and this was an encouraging sign. a 25% appreciation in a years’ time.4 0.8 Source: Company.1 37 92 3.6 1. HDFC sec Research Private Client Group . for longer terms we are expecting slippages to fall with a smaller watch list.2% of tier I capital. We recommend invest gradually between small tranches between 60 to 55. But recent demonetization might prove as a hurdle on this road of recovery as FB has large exposure in SME sector and now they are facing problems because of cash crunch. for a target of Rs. PCG RESEARCH In FY16 Slippages was a bit of a problem for the bank but in 1Q and 2Q of FY17. The bank reported another quarter of strong core fee income growth at 20. With strong focus on loan growth coupled with cross selling. 1.9 RBL Bank 337 1717 630 9.7 15 1 Federal Bank 65 3402 941 2.8 23.4 expected FY18 book value.9% that includes 12. we estimate healthy trend in core fees to sustain.PCG RESEARCH Page |2 . 75 . Valuations: We like Federal bank because its relatively better asset quality show on the backdrop of limited stress list and restructured book.4 27. Comparison: Net Profit Banks (FY18E) CMP NII (Rs cr) (Rs cr) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) BV (Rs) P/B (x) RoE RoA IndusInd Bank 1063 6922 3733 38. We will revise our estimates once Q3 results are out and we have further clarity on demonetization.4 1.2/8. Risk & Concerns:  Regional Concentration  Higher than anticipated slippages or any regulatory changes can affect the financials.7 17.7 291 3.

8 9.5% 14.673 20.6 10.701 PPOP 4.8 4.2 5.613 24.  Fresh slippages of advances eased to Rs 266 cr in this quarter.8% 1.828 PAT 2.6% compared to 1. HDFC sec Research Highlights of the Quarter:  Federal Bank recorded strong 25% growth in the net profit to Rs 201.3 1.0 20. Bank has recorded recoveries of Rs 44 cr.2% 2.6 ROAE (%) (ex revaluations) 6.73 0.042 28.7% in the previous quarter. BVPS (Rs) 41.5 11.3 P/ABV (x) 1.5% YoY in its expense ratio.24 cr in the quarter ended September 2016 (Q2FY2017).2 15.31% and steep acceleration in business growth to 21% YoY. Further.083 19.4 11.259 11.366 41. the bank has exhibited sharp acceleration of 27% and cross the business level of Rs 1.883 20.8% 25.024 39.238 17.5 6.1% 4.4% 6.185 9.55 0. Net NPA stood at 1.  Talking about the business growth.1 55. up gradations of Rs 72 cr and write-offs of Rs 79 cr in Q2FY2017.421 34. The strong growth in the bottomlines of the bank was driven by consistent improvement in margins to 3.PCG RESEARCH Page |3 .  The bank had improved asset quality. The bank has posted strong growth in non-interest income.9 24.5 lakh cr mark at Rs 150986 cr at end September 2016.927 4.813 23. driven by hefty 20% growth in core fee income as well as more than three-fold jump in treasury income.8 Source: Company.5 ROAA (%) 0.6 1. PCG RESEARCH Financial Summary (Rs mn) Year ending at march 2QFY17 2QFY16 YoY (%) 1QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Interest Income 7.82 0.4 50.2 P/E (x) 23. the bank has exhibited sharp improvement of 5.262 6.757 7.013 1.6% 1.2 0. Private Client Group .349 EPS (Rs) 1.5 44.3% 4.85 Adj.408 11.5 1. Bank has not conducted any sale of assets to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs).750 3.0 8.

8% 3.4% CD ratio (%) 68.2% PBT 2.0 43.5 73.9% 1.128 12.7 13.013 24.0 34.8 16.1% Net NPA (Rs bn) 6.8 6.183 5.052 6.255 3. HDFC sec Research Private Client Group .2 4.673 2.6 12.083 6.4% CASA Deposits (Rs bn) 235 240 257 266 268 14.0 602 bps 209 bps CAR (%) 14.886 1.4 10.259 4.269 2.7 1.5% Provisions And Contingencies 873 751 3.9 70.9% PAT 1.823 1.574 3.0 16.2 7.066 23.2% 9.4 53.9 -1187 bps -22 bps Coverage ratio (%) Reported 76.906 7.6 71.3% Operating Expenses 4.4 58.8 8.878 24.8% 20.1 42.2 2.0 3.128 9.885 9.366 3.9% 0.370 2.2 -184 bps -77 bps Profitability Yield On Advances (%) 11.8% Non-interest Income 1.1 71.750 41.540 4.4% Treasury Income 260 230 410 830 860 230.3% Balance Sheet items/ratios Deposits (Rs bn) 738 748 792 811 863 17.945 4.9 10.9 1.7 1.613 1.3% 4.8 2.0% 19.2 51.685 1.6% 16.2 10.630 5.6 28 bps -7 bps Delinquency Ratio (%) 3.297 9.6% Operating Income 7.3 13.493 2.3 1.3 19 bps 2 bps Cost-Income Ratio (%) 57.8 9.6 -76 bps -22 bps NIM (%) 3.5% Gross NPAs (%) 2.9 2.9 13.PCG RESEARCH Page |4 .4 13.927 7.9 3.1 -102 bps -27 bps Cost Of deposits (%) 7.8 -12 bps -14 bps Net NPAs (%) 1.1% Provision For Tax 880 877 (44) 901 1.4 72.4% 4.720 1.0% NPA Provisions 1.0% 6.7 48.9 75.504 59 2.9% 6.7 17.684 92.0 12.1 3.5 9.7 -151 bps -21 bps Coverage Ratio (%) 54.2 21.3 7.1 72.9 -186 bps -74 bps Tier I (%) 14.6 10.859 6.8 54.0 43.053 19.0% 0.3 -97 bps -66 bps Asset Quality Gross NPA (Rs bn) 15.627 103 1.039 5.4% 4.3 3.1% 11.7% Advances (Rs bn) 509 528 581 591 647 27.262 19.3 35.9 -552 bps -228 bps Tax Rate (%) 35.616 43. PCG RESEARCH Five Quarters At A Glance: Rs mn 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 YoY Growth QoQ Growth Net Interest Income 6.8% -22.8% Pre-provision Profits 3.1 13.5) 35.7 10.7 56.5% 10.7 72.4 3.833 2.260 980 -22.9 1.7 14.270 390 2.3 3.5 18.7 -488 bps -39 bps Source: Company.6 1.2 6.0 (74.

HDFC sec Research Deposit Growth will skyrocket in coming quarters High Growth puts Pressure on CASA Ratio Deposits (Rs bn) (LHS) Chg (%) (RHS) CASA (Rs bn) (LHS) CASA ratio (% . Up 140Bps QoQ Advances (Rs bn) (LHS) Chg (%) (RHS) Agri SME Large Corporate Retail Rs bn % 100% 700 30 650 25 80% 600 20 550 60% 500 15 450 10 40% 400 5 20% 350 300 0 0% 2QFY17 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 250 -5 1QFY16 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 Source: Company. PCG RESEARCH Healthy Loan Growth Across Segments Retail Share Inches To ~30.PCG RESEARCH Page |5 .5%. HDFC sec Research Source: Company.RHS) Rs bn % 950 Rs bn % 20 280 34 18 260 33 850 16 32 240 14 220 31 750 12 30 200 650 10 29 180 8 28 550 160 27 6 4 140 26 450 2 120 25 350 0 100 24 4QFY15 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 2QFY16 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 Source: Company. HDFC sec Research Source: Company. HDFC sec Research Private Client Group .

00 3.0 2QFY15 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 Source: Company.00 3.00 10.50 11.20 1.60 16.00 12.00 1.RHS 12.50 6.00 % % 3. HDFC sec Research Lower Slippages Led By Corporate Segment Retail SME + Agri Corporate Slippages (%.50 6.00 3.40 10.00 4.10 .5 2.50 9.00 2. - 5.00 8.0 60% 3.30 8.0 4.00 3.00 7.00 3.PCG RESEARCH Page |6 .50 14. HDFC sec Research Source: Company.00 2.00 18.00 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 Source: Company. RHS) 100% 5.00 3.5 0% 1.RHS Net NPA (%) .70 20.00 2.00 3.00 Rs bn % 4. PCG RESEARCH Headline Asset Quality Stable QoQ NIMs Up Marginally Gross NPA (Rs bn) Net NPA (Rs bn) Cost of Fund Yield on Funds NIM (RHS) Gross NPA (%) .0 20% 1.5 80% 4.00 0.00 3.0 40% 2. HDFC sec Research Private Client Group .00 3.5 3.

274.043 5.232.545 PPOP 16.757 7.046 63.535 1. HDFC sec Research Advances 512.908 99.892 Total Income 32.042 28.443.934 57.487 65.104 90.670 5.421 34.917 102.235 Share Capital 1.365 Total Operating Exp 16.834 14.828 115.737 27.057 4.000 1.301 Employee Expense 8.192 Borrowings 23.529 11.500 51.067 7.566 46.713 3.817 44.240 1.339 53.044 Source: Company.191 610.535 1.279 PAT 10.766 26.587 32.505 914.668 77.761 170.388 Total Deposits 708.668 20.408 11.415 531.476 99.416 57.859 29.304 50.250 791.238 17.615 Fixed Assets 4.437 6.111 1.447 85.650 5.019 Other Assets 57.813 23.545 93.826 54.080.500 Current 40.791 19.579 31.300 1.850 580.443.309 18.200 5.275 3.828 Total Liabilities 828.526 11.813 13.783 7.189 49.085 Treasury Income 2.446 4.476 367.717 918.864 10.278 14.875 Fee Income (CEB) 3.438 3.820 17.993 6.119 26.222 257.411 6.519 36.232. PCG RESEARCH Income Statement (mn) Balance Sheet (mn) Year ending March FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E As at March FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Interest Earned 74.474 83.550 51.181 Provision for Tax 5.870 714.934 23.391 52.136 59.468 5.811 4.396 10.381 80. HDFC sec Research Private Client Group .PCG RESEARCH Page |7 .000 2.800 54.195 Investments 205.082 836.086 Source: Company.441 3.920 10.553 4.111 1.869 1.460 5.804 76.153 2.992 Total Assets 828.349 G-Secs 168.804 25.666 5.195 77.065 308.155 4.269 214.912 86.055.964 283.901 697.936 SOURCES OF FUNDS Interest Expended 50.049 5.214 221.082 21.175 250.197 11.) PBT 15.718 843.497 Savings 177.404 57.086 Provisions & Contingencies 1.905 23.906 38.745 259. for NPAs (incl.198 47.319 Shareholders' Funds 77.883 20.133 Other Liabilities & Provs 19.688 222. std 2.434 Other Income 8.040 193.968 APPLICATION OF FUNDS prov.300 1.829 324.557 1.020 Term Deposits 490.284 Prov.041 6.441 3.441 Net Interest Income 23.701 Reserves 75.440 4.505 914.055.024 39.733 6.185 9.210 7.498 999.544 Cash & Bank Balance 47.248 15.

2 ROAA TREE P/ABV (x) 1.7 6.82% 0.678 19.64% 0.6 Net Interest Income 3.6 18.5 33.9 1.4 11.02% 2.3 1.26% 0.0 46.0 58.9 12.55 0.0 11.5 3.1 6.3 59.61% 0.7 0.08% 2.8 13.500 10.9 20.1 2.76 12.1 55.1 2.6 Net NPLs (Rsmn) 3.2 Provision/Avg.684 7.97% Dividend Yield (%) 0.43 1.1 9.1 2.0 2.4 73.52% 0.8 32.0 8.1 2.3 Provisions for NPAs 0.89% 2.6 Tax 0.15% 0.6 Gross NPLs (Rsmn) 10.6 10.6 1.60 Cost/Avg.06% 0.17% 0.8 Private Client Group .65% 0.11% Yield on Advances (%) 11.4 6.1 30.4 75.1 Equity/Advances (%) 15.73 0.733 9.5 6.70 0.6 10.2 1.1 50.4 8.6 ROAE (%) 13.3 Net NPLs (%) 1.85% OPERATING EFFICIENCY Leverage (x) 10.2 W/w Tier I CAR (%) 14.69% 6.3 3.0 19.2 ROAA 1.3 2.85 Coverage Ratio (%) 64.90% 1.28 0.0 8.3 6.8 33.5 13.5 1.8 16.14% 2.8 8.5 0.9 12.46% NIM (%) 3.0 1.45% 0.7 43.7 2.6 59.7 59.9 2. BVPS 42. HDFC sec Research .153 20.9 Yield on Investment (%) 7.9 33.3 CASA (%) 30.2 3.2 3.2 3.37% Core Spread (%) 4. HDFC sec Research BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE Loan Growth (%) 18.81% 0.3 20.71 0.30% 0.53% Cost-Income Ratio (Excl Treasury) 54.0 C/D Ratio (%) 72.6 7.6 3.87% 2.2 5.9 62.5 6.03% Cost of Funds (%) 7.9 9.48% 0.9 Source: Company.5 44.1 13. %) 15.593 Earnings Growth (%) 19.68 13.02 0.6 1.2 3. PCG RESEARCH Key Ratio Key Ratio FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E VALUATION RATIOS ASSET QUALITY EPS 5.9 12.8 ROAA (%) 1.01% 8.12% 0.2 7.54 1.577 16.85% PROFITABILITY Treasury Income 0.2 8.6 11.5 P/E (x) 23.5 Deposit Growth (%) 18.47% 0.82 0.8 Gross NPLs (%) 2.165 7.9 0.8 Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR.8 23.4 6.8 6.47% 0.4 78. Asset Ratio (%) 2.1 13.4 50.73% 0.3 8. Loans (%) 0.92% 0.1 Adj.697 BVPS 45.97% 2.0 Operating Cost 2.58% 10.9 2.7) 51.55% 0.2 15.47% Cost of Deposits (%) 7.0 ROAE 13.8 9.1 47.43% 11.32% 0.066 19.7 6.13% 2.4 55.9 (52.9 41.8 4.4 11.4 12.PCG RESEARCH Page |8 Source: Company.5 6.5 11.28% 0.9 77.4 11.07% 2.0 1.1 8.8 54.5 Non-interest Income 1.4 Equity/Assets (%) 9.4 10.6 3.28% 0.0 20.1 17.2 10.14% 0.5 10.3 54.3 Provisions 0.72 11.01 11.

Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. PCG RESEARCH Rating Definition: Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Private Client Group .PCG RESEARCH Page |9 .

Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE IF RISKS MANIFEST IF INVESTMENT PRICE CAN FALL 15% IF RISKS MANIFEST RATIONALE LOW RISK .PCG RESEARCH P a g e | 10 .HIGH & IF INVESTMENT RED PRICE CAN FALL FRUCTFIES PRICE RETURN STOCKS RATIONALE 50% OR MORE CAN RISE BY 50% FRUCTFIES PRICE OR MORE CAN RISE BY 30% Private Client Group . PCG RESEARCH Rating Chart R HIGH E T U MEDIUM R N LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH RISK Ratings Explanation: RATING Risk . IF RISKS MANIFEST RATIONALE & IF INVESTMENT YELLOW HIGH RETURN PRICE CAN FALL FRUCTFIES PRICE RATIONALE STOCKS 35% OR MORE CAN RISE BY 35% OR FRUCTFIES PRICE MORE CAN RISE BY 30% IF RISKS MANIFEST IF INVESTMENT PRICE CAN FALL 30% IF RISKS MANIFEST RATIONALE HIGH RISK .LOW & IF INVESTMENT BLUE PRICE CAN FALL FRUCTFIES PRICE RETURN STOCKS RATIONALE 20% OR MORE CAN RISE BY 20% OR FRUCTFIES PRICE MORE CAN RISE BY 15% IF RISKS MANIFEST IF INVESTMENT PRICE CAN FALL 20% MEDIUM RISK .

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