HSL PCG “Currency Insight”-Weekly

26 December, 2016

presidential victory on Nov.83 from previous week’s 67.36 and find support around 67.3747 -1.5060 0. EURINR 70. Treasury yields dipped on mixed economic data.8690 70.38 billion to $360.544% compared to Thursday's close of 6.3%  The dollar dipped against the yen early trade today.4839 84.50. The greenback was down 0. the Currency Last Chg. The yield pulled GBPINR 83. 8. The dollar will likely resume its recent Close Chg. However.  In a significant breakthrough that augurs well for the implementation of the (Spot) Close Chg.3300 117. % U.S. JPYINR 57.7713 0. % data and upward revisions to third quarter GDP growth.0537 0. Close Chg. USDINR has crossed the near term resistance and forming DGCX USDINR 67. Bond Yield at $1.10 and 68.300 yen. just few points away from recent high of 103. Expected to Consolidate in Range Currency  The Indian rupee settle at 67. Currency Prev.9474 70.8253 0.8794 -0. The decline was primarily due to USDINR 67.  Dollar has gained 5% against a basket of currencies since Donald Trump's Instrument Last Prev.1943 0.2341 -0.6000 -0. RBI Reference Rate Currency Market Quiets on Truncated Week  Last week the US economy posted better than expected housing market Prev.9117 67.0457.2% closed near 103 level. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .S.0% higher top higher bottom indicating overall bullish bias. goods and services tax (GST).0456 1.9% back from 27-month peaks scaled mid-month following Friday's release of JPYINR 57.8250 67.1% revaluation and depreciation of currencies such as the euro and outflow of EURINR 70.529%.77 on stronger dollar against major currencies.5000 0.0451 0. both states and the Centre cleared the model DXY Index 103.S.7%  Technically.0437 0. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at 6. economic indicators that included strong housing and consumer confidence data but also numbers that pointed to slower household income. The near term resistance for the pair would be at 68. All eyes will now be on the more contentious issue of cross-empowerment to scrutinize assesses to be taken up on Friday.5440 6.3500 0. The euro was steady GOI 10 Yr.0005 0.2 percent at 117.5% billion in the week ended December 16.4% markets.1775 84.9% U.0380 0. rally when the new year begins.0322 0.7%  The weekly forex reserve data indicated fall of $2.1% foreign investor funds as the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates by 25 basis points prompted a lot of investors to cut exposure to emerging GBPINR 83.60 USDJPY 117.2282 1.1% GST law on Thursday in the seventh GST council meeting chaired by finance EURUSD 1. Trading will subdued with many key 697GS2026 6.8800 57.7502 -0.0100 102.1340 0. % Last Chg. Chg.7531 0. edging lower down after U.6% markets witness holiday thin week. WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET WRAP UP Rupee Near One Week High.8472 67.4300 0.7777 0.9300 -0.0214 -1.1972 -1. GBPUSD 1.2496 -0. trading activity was missing amid holiday thin volume with dollar index USDINR 67.3800 0.0% minister Arun Jaitley.9500 0.65.7800 57.0600 0.

Dec.  CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Japan releases minutes of the November policy decision meeting.) Friday. NSE INRUSD Future Dec16 67. S&P Core Logic 20-city national home-price indexes (Oct. Dallas Fed manufacturing (Dec). 29  Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from December meeting.3% 45701 38011 20.).9400 70. Trading activity likely to remain light on year end settlement.8400 57. 28  ECONOMY: U. CLOSE (OI) OI VOL.OI (PVO) PREV.1% 26146 37054 -29. Dec. U. U. Richmond Fed manufacturing (Dec.5% 26794 28012 -4. PREV. consumer confidence (Dec.) % CHG. WEEK AHEAD This week remains light from economic data as we see truncated week on back of new year holiday.7% NSE GBPINR Future Dec16 83.S.S. U. advance merchandise trade deficit (Nov.) Thursday. 27  ECONOMY: U.).S. % CHG.5% 9544 25762 -63.0% 1944800 1808945 7. Chicago PMI (Dec.). Wednesday.).9900 -0. Dec.S.2% NSE JPYINR Future Dec16 57.6% 36206 43908 -17.S. and European markets are closed in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. Tuesday.S. Japan retail sales (Nov. pending home sales (Nov. U. 26  U.0% PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .  ECONOMY: U.5% 789043 655620 20. U.VOLUME . Monday.8050 0.8175 67.S.).4700 -1. OPEN PREV.S. WEEKLY PRICE . WKLY WKLY OI VOLUME WKLY VOL. Dec. Dec. wholesale and retail inventories (Nov. (VOL.).). China industrial profits (Nov.4925 0.).S.). Japan CPI (Nov.4% 26180 47318 -44. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will give a speech at the Keidanren business lobby. Nationwide house prices (Dec.. jobless claims (weekly). MBA mortgage applications (weekly). 30  ECONOMY: U.K.2350 84. Japan industrial output (Nov.4% NSE EURINR Future Dec16 70. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly). CURRENCY PAIR CLOSE WEEK INTEREST WEEK WEEK % CHG.).

 Dollar Index has broken out on the medium to long term charts.03 Pivot 67.  Resistance levels are placed at 68.50.68 Support 2 67.24 Resistance 1 68.36.  RSI has also exited the oversold zone. Therefore. for the Targets of 68. with SL of 67. It has reached a level of 103 and sustaining around that.82 Currency Weekly DAILY CHART Pivot Resistance 2 68.89 Support 1 67. which indicates that there is high probability of going up than going down for the pair.10 and 68.50.18 and 68.  Rise in the dollar index would also have negative impact on rupee against the dollar. Future CMP 67.50 odd levels.53 Hold Longs in USDINR Dec Fut. while Support for the pair is seen at 67. USDINR pair is expected to remain firm. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT USDINR USDINR Dec. keeping SL at 67. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .  We advise holding longs in USDINR Dec Fut.36.

So.  We advise going long in EURINR Dec fut around 70.58 Support 2 70.3 levels.30.92 Support 1 70.30. existing trend is bearish  However. 72.62 Resistance 1 71. There is a long term support seen at 70-70. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT EURINR EURINR Dec. which could result in to pullback in the existing bearish trend.10  EURINR Pair has been showing relative strength as compared to GBPINR and JPYINR. For the target of 72.10.30 levels in EURINR Dec Fut. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .  RSI on the daily and weekly chart has reached oversold zone  There is a long term support seen between 70 and 70. Future CMP 70.22 Buy EURINR Dec Fut.50. Keeping SL at 69.94 DAILY CHART Weekly Currency Pivot Resistance 2 71. around 70.28 Pivot 70.50. SL 69.  Lower tops and lower bottoms are intact on the daily chart. Tgt.

Tgts 82. Keeping SL at 83.90.90.63 Support 2 82.30 and 81.33 Pivot 83. SL 83. while resistance for the same seen at 83.90  We have been mentioning our bearish view for GBPINR pair for Support 82.43 Resistance 1 84.  We advise selling GBPINR Dec Fut. Our view got vindicated as pair witnessed sharp fall recently.  Oscillators like MACD and DMI have turned bearish on daily and weekly charts.24 DAILY CHART Weekly Currency Pivot Resistance 2 85.50.02 Resi 83. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT GBPINR GBPINR Dec.30 last couple of weeks.72 Support 1 82.30 and 81.  Overall trend of the pair has been bearish with lower tops and lower bottoms on the weekly and monthly charts. Future CMP 83.30 & 81. for the targets of 82. At cmp.50. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .50.  Supports for the pair seen at 82.88 SELL GBPINR DEC FUT at CMP.

78 Support 1 57.57 Support 2 57.  Resistance for the pair is seen at 59. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT JPYINR JPYINR Dec.50.30 Sell JPYINR Dec Fut. Future CMP : 57.05 Pivot 57.50 and 54. 56. which should be kept as stop loss in short positions. below 57. as Lower tops and lower bottoms are well intact on the daily and weekly chart.50 and 53. keeping SL at 59. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .50.  Considering the setup. there is no sign of bullish price reversal seen.60. Tgts.5 and 54  For last four trading sessions pair has been consolidating in the tight range between  Primary trend of the pair has been bearish. we advise going short on JPYINR Dec Fut below 57.  Long term supports for the pair are seen somewhere around 56.84 Currency Weekly DAILY CHART Pivot Resistance 2 58. for the targets of 56.27 Resistance 1 58.  Though the pair has reached oversold zone on the short term charts. SL 59.

DOLLAR INDEX EURUSD DXY: Daily Chart EURUSD: Daily Chart GBPUSD USDJPY USDJPY: Daily Chart GBPUSD: Daily Chart PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .

future. MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION Data Interpretation:  The highest Open interest had been seen in 68 strikes indicating near term resistance for USDINR Dec.30 to 67.50 call strikes as trader cover position around 1.05 lakh contracts.25. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .  Looking at the above option distribution USDINR Dec.  The overall distribution saw support in the range of 67. In the week gone by we had seen long unwinding in 67.10-68.00 while resistance around 68. future could expiry around 68 marks.USDINR DEC.

we have seen addition of 7.34 lakh contracts.82 from previous week’s 67. the pair unable to hold level of 68 and consolidated in broad range of 67.81. settling week at 67.70 before expiring around 68 marks.  USDINR December future would consolidate in the range of 68.USDINR FUTURE OPEN INTEREST CHANGE Data Interpretation:  USDINR December future ended the week on flat note.64 and near month future added around 1.5% in open interest and 20. The Aggregate open interest placed at 29. During the week.10. However.20 to 67.70 to 68.4% volume ahead of expiry week. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .11 lakh contracts from previous week 26.

43 1.46 20.31 2.47 Position in IMF -0.38 360.99 363. Positive Net Foreign Debt Invt.32 2.9 339.98 19. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .30 365.01 1.13 341.44 1.61 362.3 2.36 336.00 19.26 340.46 20.27 343.44 1.01 2.44 1.87 365.23 Foreign Currency Assets -2. Negative Net Foreign Debt Invt. Negative Net Foreign Equity Invt.44 1.98 19.46 Special Drawing Rights -0.31 2.37 FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR Positive Net Foreign Equity Invt. 16-Dec 9-Dec 2-Dec 25-Nov 18-Nov 11-Nov Total Reserves -2.92 Gold 0.50 368.08 341.29 2.INDIA FOREX RESERVE Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions) Wkly Chg.98 20.

7173 0.10 0.02 102.0264 1.3 0.7 7071.48 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 5441.7 0.03) (5.8 0.08) 1.7536 (0.27) Swiss Franc Spot 1.81 3.93) (0.05) (7.0275 1.7199 0.76) (19.67 CAC 40 INDEX 4837.2919 3.87) (1.4 (0.6 3068.06) (1.89) (1.8 0.8638 15.13 6.13 0.4 117.27) SILVER 15.77 (2.25 2.18 3.04) (5.26 53.97 103.04 (0.24 (0.13 8.2703 0.4 11449.69) (1.41 8.2273 1.01) (0.9564 14.8 0.6 19385.05 117.05) 0.4 26040.51) Canadian Dollar Spot 1.69 15.2293 1.2287 0.24 (1.24 0.7 5441.2873 3.78) (5.0459 1.06) British Pound Spot 1.09 (1.09) (0.07 0.25) (5.56 MAJOR INDICES 1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) Nifty 50 7972.38 1135.046 1.3 2263.31) (5.92 (0.03 0.28 52.80 DAX INDEX 11477.14) (4.28) (2.46 4.5 8022.0605 13.8 21601.44 (0.75 67.7 0.99) CRUDE OIL 52.6 19934.02 10.0193 14.3528 1.26 (1.24) 0.08 10.40 7.2265 1.2 25872.16 S&P 500 INDEX 2260.90) (2.28 5.32 (0.37) (14.67) 3.4 3077.14 1133.3544 1.86 HANG SENG INDEX 21553.9 4839.46) (7.13) (3.24 PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] .05 6.45 1201.45 1197.8 2258.7164 0.03 (4.68 0.0317 (0.9 (0.06 0.8 5462.3534 (0.06) (2.73) Brazilian Real Spot 3.72) South Korean Won Spot 1201.08 (1.MAJOR CURRENCIES 1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS CURRENCY PAIR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 102.19 (1.1 21491.28 0.89 102.21) 1.63) (3.06) (7.7 0.16 NIKKEI 225 19394.65) S.05 0.8 (0.8 21574.6 7942.49) MAJOR COMMODITIES 1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS COMMODITY OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) GOLD 1128.2 19899.15) (2.10 0.2 11409.68 53.45) S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 25960.0 26143.47 1.0255 0.25) (2.32 3.63) (15.825 0.3512 1.1 7985.4 19421.90 FTSE 100 INDEX 7063.7199 0. AVG 19908.09) 0.00 Euro Spot 1.96) DOW JONES INDUS.58) (8.4 4844.8 4825.45) (7.2 0. African Rand Spot 14.87 15.1 (1.48) SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 3095.67 (0.60 3.65 3.02 0.36 9.28) Indian Rupee Spot 67.84 1199.6 3095.9 19410.6 7068.7937 15.0444 1.30) Japanese Yen Spot 117.9225 67.80) Australian Dollar Spot 0.8 5462.0253 1.0459 0.13 0.2 11480.9425 67.51 14.1 19933.84 1128.39 117.1 7054.55 (1.8 2263.2593 3.

2036k 12/29/2016 20:15 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 25-Dec -.40% 12/29/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 24-Dec -. Activity Dec 10.40% 12/29/2016 19:00 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Nov -$61.9b 12/29/2016 19:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Nov P 0. 0.2 12/29/2016 12:30 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Dec 3.5b -$61. 6.70% -1.6 PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] . 275k 12/29/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 17-Dec -.10% -0.20% 12/28/2016 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf.5 57.7 12/30/2016 16:30 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Nov -. -0.80% 4. ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 12/26/2016 10:30 JN Leading Index CI Oct F -.40% 12/28/2016 15:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Nov 41400 40851 12/28/2016 20:30 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Nov -. -24481 12/30/2016 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec 56. 101 12/26/2016 12/30 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Nov -.40% 12/29/2016 19:00 US Retail Inventories MoM Nov -.1 10. 46.60% 12/28/2016 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Nov P 4.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets. Hedging. For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities. In other words. while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. hence. The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to plan and execute the strategy. a hedge can be created. there is an automatic exposure to foreign exchange and. The cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength. This can be utilised by anyone. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market. On the other hand. In the current context. an importer will benefit when the rupee appreciates. whether it is an individual or corporate. both importers and exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. can protect himself from the downside risk. The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. By creating an equal and opposite position in the derivatives market. hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. is said to have created a forex hedge.KNOWLEDGE CENTRE How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses An important tool in the global financial markets. the need for hedging is higher. With the help of a forex hedge. since the world markets are interlinked. they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies. to overcome the negative impact of price volatility. since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees. and at the same time creating a loss for the exporter. thus benefiting an importer. in any asset class. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] . is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or business from uncertainty in prices. a participant who is entering a trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move. a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair. a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside risk.

offsetting his business loss.e. However.50.000 .Rs 66.000). he wants to lock in the exchange rate for the above transaction.50-64)). He square off 100 lots USD at 69. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market.000 in March 2016. If.50. his strategy would be as follows In March 2016.50. wants protection against a possible appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66. if the importer hedges the currency risk. when he receives his payment.000 and places his order on 11 March 2016. (50*1000*(66.000. Hence. suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016. he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75. the losses can be reduced. Profit of Rs.50). However. When he is required to make the payment in June 2016.000 in the futures. i. Hedging in the currency markets. therefore. Here's how the hedging strategy for the importer would work:  Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016. his losses were reduced to Rs 50.00. Rs 66. but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016. with the delivery date being three months away.000. holds prime importance.50. by creating a hedge position on the futures platform.e. exposure management is essential. but by creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75.KNOWLEDGE CENTRE How Hedging Works For An Importer Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1. suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. in this situation.00. i.00.50. How An Exporter Can Use Hedging A Jeweller. In this case. say.000 due to profits in currency hedge. PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] . assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th March 2016.000 (Rs 69. who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50. the value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69. one US dollar is worth.  Then in June 2016. Had the exporter not hedged his position. he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.  Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar Had the importer not hedged his position. 200000. given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market.000 rather than Rs 66. Assume that initially the Indian rupee depreciated. Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000.spot market @66.

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