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Hypothesis Testing

Business Statistics:

Communicating with Numbers, 2e

8/31/2016

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2016 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chapter 9 Learning Objectives (LOs)

LO 9.1 Define the null hypothesis and the alternative

hypothesis.

LO 9.2 Distinguish between Type I and Type II

errors.

LO 9.3 Conduct a hypothesis test using the p-value

approach.

LO 9.4 Conduct a hypothesis test using the critical

value approach.

LO 9.5 Differentiate between the test statistics for the

population mean.

LO 9.6 Specify the test statistic for the population

proportion.

BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-2

Introductory Case:

Undergraduate Study Habits

Are todays college students studying hard or

hardly studying?

A recent study asserts that over the past five

decades the number of hours that the average

college student studies each week has been

steadily dropping (The Boston Globe, July 4, 2010).

In 1961, students invested 24 hours per week in

their academic pursuits, whereas todays students

study an average of 14 hours per week.

9-3

Introductory Case:

Undergraduate Study Habits

As dean of a large university in California, Susan Knight

wonders if the study trend is reflective of students at her

university.

Susan randomly selected 35 students to ask about their

average study time per week. Using these results, Susan

wants to

1. Determine if the mean study time of students at her

university is below the 1961 national average of 24 hours

per week.

2. Determine if the mean study time of students at her

university differs from todays national average of 14

hours per week.

BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-4

Terms - Definition

A hypothesis is a statement or assertion or assumption or

claim or belief about the state of nature (about the true value

of an unknown population parameter):

= 100

p=0.9

Daily sales at a Store is normally distributed

Advertising expenditure is a predictor of sales

Employee empowerment and customer satisfaction are

independent

1 2 0

9-5

Terms-Definition

that involves formulating a hypothesis and

using sample data to decide on the validity of

the hypothesis (to support or not to support)

9-6

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

LO 9.1 Define the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.

competing opinions (hypotheses).

In a hypothesis test, define

H0, the null hypothesis, the presumed default state

of nature or status quo.

HA, the alternative hypothesis, a contradiction of

the default state of nature or status quo.

9-7

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

In statistics we use sample information to make

inferences regarding the unknown population

parameters of interest.

We conduct hypothesis tests to determine if sample

evidence contradicts H0.

On the basis of sample information, we either

Reject the null hypothesis

Sample evidence is inconsistent with H0.

Do not reject the null hypothesis

Sample evidence is not inconsistent with H0.

We do not have enough evidence to accept H0.

LO 9.1 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-8

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Defining the Null Hypothesis and Alternative

Hypothesis

General guidelines:

Null hypothesis, H0, states the status quo.

Alternative hypothesis, HA, states whatever we

wish to establish (i.e., contests the status quo).

Use the following signs in hypothesis tests

HA < > contradict H0.

Note that H0 always contains the equality.

LO 9.1 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-9

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

One-Tailed versus Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests

Two-Tailed Test

Reject H0 on either side of the hypothesized value of

the population parameter.

For example:

H0: = 0 versus HA: 0

H0: p = p0 versus HA: p p0

The symbol in HA indicates that both tail areas of

the distribution will be used to make the decision

regarding the rejection of H0.

9-10

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

One-Tailed versus Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests

One-Tailed Test

Reject H0 only on one side of the hypothesized value

of the population parameter.

For example:

H0: < 0 versus HA: > 0 (right-tail test)

H0: > 0 versus HA: < 0 (left-tail test)

Note that the inequality in HA determines which tail

area will be used to make the decision regarding the

rejection of H0.

9-11

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Three Steps to Formulate Hypotheses

1. Identify the relevant population parameter of interest

(e.g., or p).

2. Determine whether it is a one- or a two-tailed test.

3. Include some form of the equality sign in H0 and use

HA to establish a claim.

H0 HA Test Type

= Two-tail

> < One-tail, Left-tail

< > One-tail, Right-tail

LO 9.1 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-12

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Example: A trade group predicts that back-to-school

spending will average $606.40 per family this year. A

different economic model is needed if the prediction is

wrong.

1. Parameter of interest is since we are interested in the

average back-to-school spending.

2. Since we want to determine if the population mean differs

from $606.4 (i.e, ), it is a two-tail test.

3. H0: = 606.4

HA: 606.4

9-13

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Example: A television research analyst wishes to test a

claim that more than 50% of the households will tune in

for a TV episode. Specify the null and the alternative

hypotheses to test the claim.

1. Parameter of interest is p since we are interested in

the proportion of households.

2. Since the analyst wants to determine whether p >

0.50, it is a one-tail test.

3. H0: p < 0.50

HA: p > 0.50

9-14

Example

Suppose a bank knows that their customers are

waiting in line an average of 10.2 minutes during

the lunch hour. The branch manager has decided

to add an additional teller during the 12-2 p.m.

period and wishes to test the hypothesis that the

average wait has decreased due to the additional

teller. Set up the null and alternative hypothesis

for the bank manager.

H0: = 10.2

H1: < 10.2

9-15

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

LO 9.2 Distinguish between Type I and Type II errors.

Type I Error: Committed when we reject H0 when H0

is actually true.

Occurs with probability . is chosen a priori.

Type II Error: Committed when we do not reject H0

and H0 is actually false.

Occurs with probability . Power of the test = 1 .

For a given sample size n, a decrease in will

increase and vice versa.

9-16

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

This table illustrates the decisions that may

be made when hypothesis testing:

Correct Decisions:

Reject H0 when H0 is false.

Do not reject H0 when H0 is true.

Incorrect Decisions:

Reject H0 when H0 is true (Type I Error).

Do not reject H0 when H0 is false (Type II Error).

LO 9.2 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-17

9.1 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Example: Consider the following competing

hypotheses that relate to the court of law.

H0: An accused person is innocent

HA: An accused person is guilty

Consequences of Type I and Type II errors:

Type I error: Conclude that the accused is guilty

when in reality, she is innocent.

Type II error: Conclude that the accused is innocent

when in reality, she is guilty.

Problems 7

9-18

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

LO 9.3 Conduct a hypothesis test using the p-value approach.

sample evidence is inconsistent with what is

hypothesized under the null hypothesis (H0).

Basic principle: First assume that H0 is true and

then determine if sample evidence contradicts this

assumption.

Two approaches to hypothesis testing:

The p-value approach.

The critical value approach.

9-19

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

The p-value Approach

The value of the test statistic for the hypothesis test of

the population mean when the population standard

deviation is known is computed as

x 0

z

n

where 0 is the hypothesized mean value.

p-value: the likelihood of obtaining a sample mean

that is at least as extreme as the one derived from the

given sample, under the assumption that the null

hypothesis is true.

LO 9.3 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-20

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

The p-value Approach

Under the assumption that = 0, the p-value is the likelihood

of observing a sample mean that is at least as extreme as the

one derived from the given sample.

The calculation of the p-value depends on the specification of

the alternative hypothesis:

LO 9.3 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-21

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

The p-value Approach

Determining the p-value depending on the

specification of the competing hypotheses.

9-22

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Four Step Procedure Using The p-value Approach

Step 1. Specify the null and the alternative

hypotheses.

Step 2. Specify the test statistic and compute its value.

Step 3. Calculate the p-value.

Step 4. State the conclusion and interpret the results.

9-23

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The p-value Approach

Consider the following: n 25, x 71, 9

Step 1. State the hypotheses: H0 : 67

H A : 67

Thus, 0 = 67

Step 2. Given that the population is normally

distributed with a known standard deviation,

= 9, we compute the value of the test statistic as

x 0 71 67

z 2.22

n 9 25

9-24

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The p-value Approach

Unstandardized Normal Distribution: x = 71 m0 = 67

Standardized Normal Distribution: z = 2.22 m=0

Step 3. Now compute the p-value:

Note that since HA: > 67,

this is a right-tail test.

Thus,

P ( X 71) P (Z 2.22)

1 0.9868

0.0132

p-value = 0.0132

or 1.32%

9-25

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The p-value Approach

p-value = 0.0132 or 1.32%

Typically, before implementing a hypothesis test, we

choose a value for = 0.01, 0.05, or 0.1 and reject H0

when the p-value < .

Lets say, before conducting the study, we chose a =

0.05.

Step 4. Since p-value = 0.0132 < = 0.05, we reject H0

and conclude that the sample data support the

alternative claim that > 67.

LO 9.3 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-26

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The p-value Approach Using Excel

9-27

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

LO 9.4 Conduct a hypothesis test using the critical value approach.

Rejection region: a region of values such that if the

test statistic falls into this region, then we reject H0.

The location of this region is determined

by HA.

Critical value: a point that separates the rejection

region from the nonrejection region.

9-28

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

The Critical Value Approach

The critical value approach specifies a region such that if the

value of the test statistic falls into the region, the null

hypothesis is rejected.

The critical value depends on the alternative hypothesis.

z > z for a right-tailed test

z < z for a left-tailed test

z > z /2 or z < z /2 for a two-tailed test

LO 9.4 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-29

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

The Critical Value Approach

Determining the critical value(s) depending on the

specification of the competing hypotheses.

Reject H0 if

z > za/2 or z < za/2

Reject H0 if z < za Reject H0 if z > za

9-30

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Four Step Procedure Using the Critical Value

Approach

Step 1. Specify the null and the alternative

hypotheses.

Step 2. Specify the test statistic and compute its value.

Step 3. Find the critical value or values.

Step 4. State the conclusion and interpret the results.

9-31

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example:

Consider the following: n 25, x 71, 9

Step 1. State the hypotheses: H0 : 67

H A : 67

Thus, 0 = 67

Step 2. Given that the population is normally

distributed with a known standard deviation,

= 9, we compute the value of the test statistic as

x 0 71 67

z 2.22

n 9 25

9-32

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The Critical Value Approach

Step 3. Based on HA, this is a

right-tail test and for z 2.22

= 0.05, the critical value

is z = z0.05 = 1.645.

Excel can find z :

9-33

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The Critical Value Approach

Step 4. Reject H0 if z > 1.645.

Since z = 2.22 > z = 1.645, the test statistic falls in

the rejection region. Therefore, we reject H0 and

conclude that the

sample data support the

alternative claim > 67. z= 2.22

falls in the

rejection

p-value approach.

LO 9.4 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-34

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: The Critical Value Approach

If z falls in the rejection region, then the p-value must

be less than .

If z does not fall in the

rejection region, then the

p-value must be greater

than .

9-35

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Confidence Intervals and Two-Tailed Hypothesis

Tests

Given the significance level a, we can use the sample

data to construct a 100(1 )% confidence interval

for the population mean .

Decision Rule

Reject H0 if the confidence interval does not contain the

value of the hypothesized mean 0.

Do not reject H0 if the confidence interval does contain

the value of the hypothesized mean 0.

LO 9.4 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-36

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Implementing a Two-Tailed Test Using a Confidence

Interval

The general specification for a 100(1 )% confidence interval

of the population mean when the population standard

deviation is known is computed as

x za /2 nor x za /2 n , x za /2 n

or if 0 x za /2 n

9-37

9.2 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Known

Example: Recall that a research analyst wishes to

determine if average back-to-school spending

differs from $606.40.

Out of 30 randomly drawn households from a normally

distributed population, the standard deviation is $65 and

sample mean is $622.85.

Step 1. H0: = 606.4, HA: 606.4

Step 2. z = 1.39

Step 3. Based on HA, this

is a two-tail test and for

a = 0.05, the critical value

is z/2 = z0.025 = 1.96.

LO 9.4 BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-38

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

LO 9.5 Differentiate between the test statistics for the population mean.

When the population standard deviation is

unknown, the test statistic for testing the

population mean is assumed to follow the

tdf distribution with (n 1) degrees of

freedom (df).

x

The value of tdf is computed as: t df

0

s n

9-39

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example

Consider the following: n 35, x 16.37, s 7.22

Step 1. State the hypotheses: H0 : 24

H A : 24

Thus, 0 = 24

Step 2. Because n = 35 (i.e, n > 30), we can assume

that the sample mean is normally distributed and thus

compute the value of the test statistic as

x - m0 16.37 - 24

t34 = = = -6.25

s n 7.22 35

9-40

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example: The Critical Value Approach

n 35, x 16.37, s 7.22, t34 6.25

na

H0: > 24, HA: < 24

Step 3. Based on HA,

this is a left-tail test.

For = 0.05 and

n 1 = 34 df, the

critical value is

t,df = t0.05,34 = 1.691

(1.691 due to symmetry).

9-41

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Step 4. State the conclusion and interpret the results.

Reject H0 if t34 < t0.05,34 = 1.691.

Since t34 = 6.25 is less than t0.05,34 = 1.691,

we reject H0 and conclude that the sample data

support the alternative claim that < 24.

You can use Excel to look up t values:

9-42

Case

In the introductory case to this chapter , the dean at a large

university in California wonders if students at her university study

less than the 1961 national average of 24 hours per week. She

randomly selects 35 students and asks their average study time

per week (in hours).From their responses(see Table 9.1), she

calculates a sample mean of 16.37 hours and a sample standard

deviation of 7.22 hours.

b. At the 5% significance level, specify the critical value(s).

c. Calculate the value of the test statistic.

d. What is the conclusion to the hypothesis test?

9-43

Case

As the introductory case to this chapter mentions,

recent research finds that todays undergraduate

study an average of 14 hours per week. Using the

sample data from Table 9.1, the dean would also like

to test if the mean study time of students at her

university differs from todays national average of 14

hours per week.

a. Formulate the completing hypothesis for this test .

b. Calculate the value of the test statistic.

c. Approximate the p-value.

d. At the 5% significance level ,what is the

conclusion to this test?

9-44

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example: The p-value Approach

na 35, x 16.37, s 7.22

n

Step 1. H0: = 14, HA: 14

Step 2. Compute the value of the test statistic as:

x - m0 16.37 - 14

t34 = = = 1.94

s n 7.22 35

Step 3. Compute the p-value.

Since t34=1.94 > 0, the p-value for a two-tailed test is 2P(T34 >

t,34). Referencing the tdf table for df = 34, we find that the

exact probability P(T34 > 1.94) cannot be determined.

9-45

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example: The p-value Approach

Step 3. Compute the p-value (continued).

Look up t34 = 1.94 in the t-table to find the p-value.

Thus, 0.025 < P(T34 > 1.94) < 0.05.

However, because this is a two-tail test, we multiply by two

to get 0.05 < p-value < 0.10.

9-46

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example: The p-value Approach

0.05 < p-value < 0.10

= 0.05.

Step 4. State the conclusion and interpret the results.

Since the p-value satisfies 0.05 < p-value < 0.10, it must be

greater than = 0.05.

Thus, we do not reject H0 and conclude that the mean study

time of students at the university is not statistically different

from todays national average of 14 hours per week.

9-47

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example: The p-value Approach

0.05 < p-value < 0.10

= 0.05.

Step 4. State the conclusion and interpret the results.

Since the p-value satisfies 0.05 < p-value < 0.10, it must be

greater than = 0.05.

Thus, we do not reject H0 and conclude that the mean study

time of students at the university is not statistically different

from todays national average of 14 hours per week.

9-48

9.3 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Mean When Is Unknown

Example: The p-value Approach Using Excel (which

CAN calculate the exact p-value)

9-49

9.4 Hypothesis Test of the Population Proportion

9.6 Specify the

> 5 and n(1 p) > 5.

Test statistic for the hypothesis test of the population

proportion p is assumed to follow the z distribution:

where p x n

p p0

z and p0 is the hypothesized

p0 1 p0 n value of the population

proportion.

9-50

9.4 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Proportion

Example:

na 180, x 67, p0 0.4

Step 1. H0: p > 0.4, HA: p < 0.4

Step 2. Compute the value of the test statistic.

First verify that the sample is large enough:

np0 67 0.4 26.8 5

n(1 p0 ) 67 0.6 40.2 5

Compute the test statistic using p = 67/180 = 0.3722:

p p0 0.3722 0.4

z 0.76

p0 1 p0 n 0.4 1 0.4 180

9-51

9.4 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Proportion

Example:

Step 3. Compute the p-value.

Based on HA: p < 0.4, this is a left-tailed test.

Compute the p-value as:

P(Z < z) = P(Z < 0.76) = 0.2236.

Let the significance

level = 0.10.

9-52

9.4 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Proportion

Example:

Step 4. State the conclusion and interpret the results.

p-value = 0.2236 > a = 0.10.

Do not reject H0: p > 0.4 and conclude

HA: p < 0.4.

Thus, the magazines claim that fewer than 40% of

households in the United States have changed their

lifestyles because of escalating gas prices is not

justified by the sample data.

9-53

Problem

A popular weekly magazine asserts that fewer than

40% of households in the United States have

changed their lifestyles because of escalating gas

prices. A recent survey of 180 households finds that

67 households have made lifestyle changes due to

escalating gas prices.

a. Specify the competing hypotheses to test the

magazines claim.

b. Calculate the value of the test statistic and the

corresponding p-value

c. At a 10% level of significance, what is the

conclusion to the test?

9-54

Problem

The manager of a small convenience store does not want her

customers standing in line for too long prior to a purchase. In particular,

she is willing to hire an employee for another cash register if the

average wait time of the customers is more than five minutes. She

randomly observes the wait time (in minutes) of customers during the

day as:

a. Set up the null and the alternative hypotheses to determine if the manager

needs to hire another employee.

b. Calculate the value of the test statistic. What assumption regarding the

population is necessary to implement this step?

c. Use the critical value approach to decide whether the manager needs to

hire another employee at =0.10.

d. Repeat the above analysis with the p-value approach.

9-55

9.4 Hypothesis Test of the Population

Proportion

Example Using Excel

9-56

Significance test for

population proportion

9-57

Assumptions :

Hypotheses:

H 0 : p p0 H 0 : p p0 H 0 : p p0

H 1 : p p0 H 0 : p p0 H 0 : p p0

p

By CLT,

p (1 p )

p N p,

n

p0

p

z obs ~ N (0,1)

p0 (1 p0 )

n

9-58

Critical Region :

Left tail : {zobs za }

Two tail : {zobs za / 2 or z za / 2 }

9-59

Significance test for

population mean (when is

known)

9-60

Assumptions :

Random sample is drawn from a population (normal distribution)

with mean and sd

Sample size should be large (small)

Population sd is known

Hypotheses:

H 0 : 0 H 0 : 0 H 0 : 0

H1 : 0 H 0 : 0 H 0 : 0

By CLT,

2

x (~) N , n

x 0

z obs ~ N (0,1), under H 0

n

BUSINESS STATISTICS | Jaggia, Kelly

9-61

Critical Region :

Left tail : {zobs za }

Two tail : {zobs za / 2 or z za / 2 }

9-62

Significance test for

population mean (when is

unknown)

small sample

9-63

Assumptions :

random sample is drawn from normal distribution with mean

and sd

Population sd is unknown

Hypotheses:

H 0 : 0 H 0 : 0 H 0 : 0

H1 : 0 H 0 : 0 H 0 : 0

needs to be estimated. Unbiased estimator of is

n

1

s ' i

n 1 i 1

( x x ) 2

9-64

x 0

t obs '

~ t n 1 , under H 0

s

n

9-65

Critical Region :

Left tail : {tobs ta ;n 1}

Two tail : {tobs ta / 2;n 1 or tobs ta / 2;n 1}

9-66

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