India’s Quest for Food Security in Changing Climate

Agriculture in Changing Climate – Where does India Stand?

Presentation based on inputs from Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development, Environment and Forests and Prof Pramod Agarwal, IARI

SAARC Workshop on Climate Change and Natural Disasters Kathmandu, Aug 21-22, 2008
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(Source: R Watson , World Bank 2005)

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A Pyramid
300 Million Indians • Resource surplus • Well-connected

India – a home to >1000 Million A Pluralistic Society

CC Impacts on Indian Agriculture – Literature
 Sinha and Swaminathan (1991 ) – showed that an increase of 2oC in 1991)

Climate Sensitive
400 Million Indians • Living on Margins • Accessed

temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas ; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce areas; wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. by0 ton/ha.
Climate Refugees
300 Million Indians • Poor • Under-nourished • Un-reached
(Settled in Rainfed, floodplains, forests..)

-..

· Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between 1994) 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects ; and would 68% CO2 effects; range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. 34% effects.

Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC 1993) temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places. places. Lat et al. (1996) – concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be al. 1996) able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields. yields. Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in al. 2000) temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%. Parikh & Kumar (2007)– Climate change impact on Indian agriculture ... 2007)

India’s State of Agriculture

· ·

Roughly 700 Million dependent on Agriculture, Fisheries, Forests GDP from Agriculture : 20 % (2007), 42 % (1980) Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha Home to largest number of poor, undernourished & food insecured Climate sensitive Agriculture
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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India
80 75 70
Production , Mtons

Natural Disaster Induced Food Security Constraints
CONSTRAINING FACTORS (%) DISASTER VULNERABILITY
• Drought: 68% of net sow n area (116 districts in 14 States) • Floods: 40 Mha in 8 maj or riv er v alleys • Degraded land: 175 Mha • Annual soil loss: 5334 Mt (64% as riv er deposit) • Annual Nutrient loss: 5.4 to 8.4 Mt • Crop Pests : 5-10 times more susceptible, compared to temperate countries
Land Degr adation 20% Agr i. Mgt. Pr actices 25% Dr ought 12% Floods 5% Post Har vest 10% Nutr ient Str ess 8% Cr op Pests / Diseases 20%

65 60 55 50 45 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060 2070

Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)
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Need to Address Holistically

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Creeping Catastrophe..
1. Climate Change
• Impact on agriculture Levels of adaptive capacity : Indian vs. US farmer
0 - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 - 0.8 -1 - 1.2 - 1.4 - 1.6 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Food Security – At the Cross Roads
Sustainable Food Security: A Life Cycle Approach
- Physical, Economic, Social and Ecological access to balanced diet & safe drinking w ater

2. Depleting Resource base
• • Ground W ater irrigated area increased by 105% in last 2 decades Surface-water irrigated land rose by only 28% over the same period 1970 1994

Climate Change Rising Population Increasing Cost of Cultivation

Globalisation: WTO regime More Demand for Limited Water
Food Security

Inadequate Support & Infrastructure Ecological Degradation

3. Uncalibrated Globalisation 4. ….
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Low Productivity

(Source: R Mendelsohn & A Dinar, 1999, World Bank)

Risk – Flood, Drought, Pest & Diseases… Agriculture, the oldest & largest land use enterprise, constitutes the backbone of livelihood security system of rural India

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Responses to climate variability

Adaptation Options
  

The most effective response strategy is imbedded into the multimultisectoral programmes viz., food security, poverty alleviation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development Specific areas of concern include: - Agriculture - Water resources - Health and sanitation - Coastal Zones - Forests - Extreme weather events “Public investment programmes have to be“climate proof “ proof“ and public development programmes should have focus on strengthening the adaptation capacities of the rural poor.”

Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts These need research and policy support Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher

Adaptation Measure Variety Adoption Dams and Irrigation Variety Development Tillage Systems Opening New Lands Irrigation Equipment Fertilizer Adoption
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Adjustment Time (years) 3-14 50-100 8-15 10-12 3-10 20-25 10
(Source: Parikh & Kumar 2007)
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Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total Fiscal Expenditure and GDP

Relative expenditures on major Adaptation schemes by thematic area
Cr op Im prove ment & Re sea rch 7.9 3%

Crop Improvement & Re se arch Drought Proofing
Drought Proofing 1 5.9 7%

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Fore stry 0 .97 %

Health

V alu e o f E xp e n d itu r e

Expenditure on adaptation as % of total Govt. expenditure Expenditure on adaptation as % of GDP
Poverty Alle ivia tion a nd Livelihood pre se rvation 59 .3 4% He alth 1 3.77%

Risk Financing Disaster Manage me nt Fore stry
Risk Financing 1.63%

Dis as te r Ma nageme nt 0 .38 %

Poverty Alleiv iation and Liv elihood preserv ation

Year
Source: MoEF, 2007

Source: MoEF, 2007

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Major Missions
1. National Food Security Mission – Rs 25,000 Crore - Enhancing Agricultural Productivity - Adaptive Agriculture - Agriculture/Weather Insurance (Varsha (Varsha Bima)…. Bima)…. 2. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change  8 National Missions..
 National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture  National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change
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Selected Indian Rural Development Programmes
Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Rural Development National Watershed Development Programme for Rainfed Areas • National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme • Drought Prone Area Programme • Desert Development Programme • Integrated Watershed Development Project • Command Area Development & Water Management Programme • National Project for Repair, Renovate and Restore of Water bodies • Watershed Development Fund • Rural Infrastructure Development Fund US $ 60 Million /yr US $ 825 Million/yr US $ 96 Million/yr US $ 70 Million/yr US $ 115 Million/yr US $191 Million/yr US $207 Million/yr US $ 160 Million/yr US 2260 Million/yr

Ministry of Water Resources

National Bank Agriculture & Rural Development

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Expanding Scope for Agriculture
- Inputs to Rural Development Programmes • Harness culturable wastelands • Generate Local Employment • Bring 30% under green cover
--Dharia Commission (90s)
Area brought under Cultivation

Improving Agromet Services
Densifying Weather Observation Network
Automatic Weather Station Space Observations Doppler Weather Radar

~ 35 Mha can be made cultivable

• Total wastelands ~ 64 Mha (2000) ~ 56 Mha (2003) • Increase in Agrohorticulture, plantation, …
February 1996 February 2002

Met. Sensor Data

Satellite Transmitter

EO instrument capabilities • Radiometers & Spectrometers • Atmospheric Sounders • Rain Radars • High resolution imagers • Polarimetric radiometers • Altimeters/Scatterometer s INSAT-3A & KALPANA
DP software installed at IMD

• Continuous monitoring of severe weather events • Radar network for entire coastal areas, NE region, major cities, …

Dedicated T eam/ User Dept.

Data Processing Center

INSAT 3D
Development of T echniques

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To improve the farmers advisories

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Adaptation Practices: Grassroots Innovation…
“The issue is not how much water you have- It is how you learn to use, store and relate to that water. In other words, the culture of dealing with water is far more important than any issue of technology “

Rain-fed Agriculture: Improving Productivity
Participatory Watershed Development
Road Par cel Water Dr ain Soil LU/LC

Sujala Govt. of Karnataka
PRA

A culture of dealing with water
Ralegaon Siddhi, Maharashtra (Avg annual rainfall < 300 mm): Irrigation increased from 80 to 1200 acre; 3 crops every year worth Rs. 600,000.
GIS / MIS

Field Survey

-Anil Agarwal, Center for Science and Environment

Satellite Inputs (Resource Maps)

Ph I Impact Assessment Incr eased … • cr op yields (24%) • cr op diver sity (2-5 to 4-9) • household income (Rs 10-13K to Rs 15-25K)
-Aide Memoire of World Bank, June, 2005

Implementation

“a model of excellence and should be promoted widely for other projects to follow” “ – World Bank Review Team

Community Participation

Watershed – Ralegaon Siddhi
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A Bottom-up Approach

Adaptive Watershed Dev.. A Result on the Ground

Story of food-secured Sabina
No more food insecured; Holds a bank account; Has marketable skilled; Finds voices in decision making; Children in schools…

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Thank You….

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