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Coles - Jones - Monteiro 1

Introduction

If youre looking for a fundraiser game, we have the perfect game for you. It is

interesting, involves no skill, and everyone wins! It is is purely based on the rules of probability,

so most people will think that they will be able to win easily, but really it is incredibly unlikely.

People have a much lower chance of getting the grand prize than the lowest prize. (But the player

doesnt have to know that!) This game is a surefire moneymaker because people think they have

a chance of winning big, and they view the stakes as low. Fool the suckers, choose Alice in

Suckerland!

Description, Rules, and Directions


in Suckerland is a very simple game to explain, but deceptively difficult to win. The
Alice

game consists of two rounds, a spinner round and a card round.

Figure 1. The Spinner

This spinner round consists simply of a spinner that is broken into eight equal sections,

numbered 1-8, shown in Figure 1 and the card round consists of a standard, 52-card deck of

playing cards. The game will cost one dollar to play.


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After paying the one dollar fee to play, the player is then allowed to spin a spinner. If the

spinner lands on the number 8, the player wins a sucker and is allowed to proceed into the card

round. If they land on a number 1-7, they do not get to advance to the next round, but still walk

away with a sucker. In the second round, the player selects a card from a fresh deck of cards

shuffled by an electronic shuffling machine. If this card is a face card, which for this game

means a jack, king, or queen, the player receives twice their money back. In other words, they

walk away with a profit of one dollar and a sucker. If it is not a face card, they receive their

dollar back simply for entering the card round and get a sucker. Aces do not count as face cards.

Once the player is done playing, they put their card back in the deck and the next player can use

the machine to shuffle the cards.

Theoretical Probability 1

There are many outcomes possible in this game, but they can be grouped into three

categories for ease of evaluation. The lowest category, which is achieved by obtaining a value

from 1-7 in the spinner round, will be referred to as third prize. The probability of getting third

prize, P( third ) = 0.875. This value was found by dividing the number of outcomes that fit the

criteria, 7, by the total number of outcomes, 8. This means the player has about a 87.5% chance

of just walking away with a sucker. Because achieving any number within the third prize

category disqualifies the player from moving on to the card round, it is not necessary to include

the cards in the calculations.

If the player achieves an eight in the spinner round, they enter the card round. The

probability of spinning an 8, or P( 8 ) = , or 0.125, a 12.5% chance. If the player spins an 8, but

does not choose a face card, they are said to have won second prize. The probability of not
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choosing a face card, or P( face ) = 40/52, or 0.7692, a 76.92% chance. This value multiplied by

P(8) will yield the probability of the player winning second place, or P( second) = 0.0961, which

means the player has about a 9.62% chance of walking away with a sucker and their dollar back.

A player who chooses a face card in the card round is said to have won the grand prize.

The probability of choosing a face card, or P( f ace )=12/52, or 0.2308, a 23.08% chance. The

probability of winning the grand prize, or P( grand ), can be found by multiplying P(8) by P( f ace

). This yields a result of P( grand ) = 0.0288, approximately. This means the player has about a

2.89% chance of walking away with the grand prize of twice their money and a sucker.

Theoretical Probability II

Table 1
Probability Distribution of Cost
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02

P($) 0.875 0.0961 0.0288

Table 1 shows the probability distribution of the players expected winnings, assuming

that a sucker is worth approximately two cents. Using Table 1, one can determine how much the

player can expect to lose, and therefore how much money the host can expect to make per play

by calculating the expected value, as shown in the figure on the next page.
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E($) = 0.98(0.875) + 0.02(0.0961) + 1.02(0.0288)

E($) = 0.826202

Figure 2. Expected Value Calculations

By using the expected value formula as shown in Figure 2, one can expect for the player

to lose about $0.83 per play, which translates into $0.83 average gain for the host of the game.

Relative Frequencies

Simulation 1: A set of 50 trials can be easily run by physically playing the game 50

times. When spinning, the number 8 was landed on 7 times out of the 50 spins. That means 43

times we walked away with the third prize. For each time the spinner landed on 8, a card was

drawn from a newly shuffled deck. 3 out of the 7 cards drawn were face cards, therefore we

walked away with the first prize 3 times out of 50. The other 4 cards drawn that werent face

cards drawn won us the second prize out of the 50 trials. The results of the 50 trials can be seen

in Appendix A.

Table 2
Probability Distribution of 50 Trials
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02

P($) 0.86 0.08 0.06

Table 2 shows the probability distribution of the 50 trials ran. Using this table, the

expected value can be found.


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E($) = 0.98(0.86) + 0.02(0.08) + 1.02(0.06)

E($) = 0.78

Figure 3. Expected Value of 50 Trials

From Figure 3 it can be expected that if the game was played 50 times each player would

lose 78 cents each time. Therefore the owner would gain a profit of 78 cents each game.

Simulation 2: The outcome of a larger number of trials can be found easily using a

simulation. Since the first round of the game is a spinner with 8 equal pieces, an online simulator

of a spinner was used. (http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/).

Figure 4. Settings of Online Spinner

All the settings were made to be an accurate representation of the real spinner used in the

game and it was set to do 500 spins, as seen in Figure 4.

Before the spinner was spun, the color green was chosen to represent the number 8. The

rest of the colors were 1-7, but were not specified specifically because only the number 8

determined if the card round would be simulated or not. Each piece had a 12.5% chance of
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getting chosen, so one can be sure that it was fair. For the card round, an online simulator of

randomly choosing a card was used (https://www.random.org/playing-cards/). On the simulator,

it drew one card from a new deck for every 8 that was from the spinner round, in this case, 67.

The card simulator showed what card it was, and the output was recorded every time it was a

face card, and every time it was not. In the spinner simulation, 8 was landed on 67 times out of

the 500 spins. That means 433 out of 500 people in this simulation walked away with the third

prize. In the card simulator, 67 cards were pulled from a new deck each time. 13 out of the 67

cards were face cards, which means 13 out of the 500 people walked away with the grand prize.

54 out of the 67 cards were something besides face cards, meaning 54 out of the 500 people

walked away with the second prize.

Table 3
Probability Distribution of 500 Trials
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02

P($) 0.866 0.108 0.026

Table 3 is showing the probability distribution from the 500 trials in the simulation.

Using that table, the expected cost from 500 plays can be found.

E($) = 0.98(0.866) + 0.02(0.108) + 1.02(0.026)

E($) = 0.82

Figure 5. Expected Value from 500 Trials

As seen in Figure 5, it can be expected that if 500 would play the game, each person

would lose 82 cents, meaning the host would gain a profit of 82 cents each play.
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Simulation 3: This game is very easily simulated with a java program, such as the one in

Appendix B. This program consists of a random number generator that yields a value between 1

and 8. If the program generates a value from 1-7, it adds one to the total of third place results,

and runs again. If it generates an 8, it moves onto a second random number generator, this time

generating numbers from 1-52. For this simulation, numbers 12 and below count as face cards. If

one of those values is output, it will add one to the total of grand prize results and then start over.

Otherwise, it will add one to the total of 2nd Place results, before starting at the first number

generator again. This process repeats until 5,000 trials have been carried out.

Figure 6. Summary of Java Results

Figure 6, above, shows the output summary of results after running this java program.

Using the probabilities calculated in the section Theoretical Probability I, the expected number of

each outcome across 5,000 trials can be calculated.

E(third) = P (third) * 5000

E(third) = 0.875 * 5000 = 4375

E(second) = P (second) * 5000

E(second) = 0.0961 * 5000 = 480.5

E(grand) = P (grand) * 5000

E(second) = 0.0288 * 5000 = 144

Figure 7. Expected Values of The Simulation Results


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Figure 7 shows the expected number of each result across 5000 trials. These numbers are

very close to the values output by the simulation, shown in Figure 6.

Table 4
Probability Distribution of 5000 Trials
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02

P($) 0.8732 0.0964 0.0304

Table 4 shows the probability distribution for the simulation of 5000 trials. 87.32% of

people walked away with the third prize, 9.64% walked away with the second prize, and 3.04%

of people walked away with the grand prize. Using all these numbers, the expected value can be

found.

E($) = 0.98(0.8732) + 0.02(0.0964) + 1.02(0.0304)

Figure 8. Expected Cost with 5000 Players

Using the formula in Figure 8, it can be found that in a simulation of 5000 people, each

player would lose about 82 cents on average, and the host would gain 82 cents.

These simulations were run to show the profitability of the game. Both simulation two

and three show an expected value of a player losing 82 cents. Simulation one had a different

expected value, showing the player losing 78 cents. This simulation yielded a different result

because 50 trials is much smaller than 500 and 5000 trials, so the Law of Averages did not have

time to come into play. However, the three simulations were all like enough that the values

yielded by the simulations can be said to give a reliable general idea of what the profits will be

like for the player.


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Summary

Alice in Suckerland is a great game for a carnival. Its easy enough that a child can play,

but just complex enough on the surface to intrigue an adult. Anybody who walks through the

carnival will be enticed by the simplicity of the game, and the illusion of ease of winning. It also

has fantastically high profit margins, with the average round yielding $0.82 in profit for the host.

Because the game runs so quickly, these numbers add up quickly. The games simplicity and

interactivity lends it an addictive nature, which would cause players to stick around and try again

and again, losing more money each time. The game also has a timeless Alice in Wonderland

theme, which leverages the power of the franchise to inspire nostalgia in adults and joy in

children, further enticing them to play the game.

In creating this game, each member of the group had a distinct role. Jones and Monteiro

worked together to perform simulations one and two, while Coles worked nearby on simulation

three. The spinner was constructed by Jones, decorated by Monteiro, and the shuffler was

provided by Coles. The paper was written as a joint effort between the three group members,

each one filling in information in the relevant sections of the paper.


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Appendix A: Output Table of Real World Simulation

Trial Spinner Face Card Drawn?


1 3

2 7
3 8 No
4 8 Yes
5 4
6 3
7 5
8 2
9 6
10 6
11 6
12 5
13 5
14 2
15 4
16 6
17 2
18 3
19 8 No
20 1
21 2
22 8 Yes
23 2
24 7
25 2
26 3
27 3
28 3
29 5
30 8 No
31 8 Yes
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Trial Spinner Face Card Drawn?


32 5
33 1
34 5
35 5
36 3
37 5
38 6
39 1
40 1
41 4
42 8 Yes
43 2
44 4
45 1
46 7
47 2
48 7
49 2
50 5
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Appendix B: Java Program

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