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Introduction
If youre looking for a fundraiser game, we have the perfect game for you. It is
interesting, involves no skill, and everyone wins! It is is purely based on the rules of probability,
so most people will think that they will be able to win easily, but really it is incredibly unlikely.
People have a much lower chance of getting the grand prize than the lowest prize. (But the player
doesnt have to know that!) This game is a surefire moneymaker because people think they have
a chance of winning big, and they view the stakes as low. Fool the suckers, choose Alice in
Suckerland!
This spinner round consists simply of a spinner that is broken into eight equal sections,
numbered 1-8, shown in Figure 1 and the card round consists of a standard, 52-card deck of
After paying the one dollar fee to play, the player is then allowed to spin a spinner. If the
spinner lands on the number 8, the player wins a sucker and is allowed to proceed into the card
round. If they land on a number 1-7, they do not get to advance to the next round, but still walk
away with a sucker. In the second round, the player selects a card from a fresh deck of cards
shuffled by an electronic shuffling machine. If this card is a face card, which for this game
means a jack, king, or queen, the player receives twice their money back. In other words, they
walk away with a profit of one dollar and a sucker. If it is not a face card, they receive their
dollar back simply for entering the card round and get a sucker. Aces do not count as face cards.
Once the player is done playing, they put their card back in the deck and the next player can use
Theoretical Probability 1
There are many outcomes possible in this game, but they can be grouped into three
categories for ease of evaluation. The lowest category, which is achieved by obtaining a value
from 1-7 in the spinner round, will be referred to as third prize. The probability of getting third
prize, P( third ) = 0.875. This value was found by dividing the number of outcomes that fit the
criteria, 7, by the total number of outcomes, 8. This means the player has about a 87.5% chance
of just walking away with a sucker. Because achieving any number within the third prize
category disqualifies the player from moving on to the card round, it is not necessary to include
If the player achieves an eight in the spinner round, they enter the card round. The
does not choose a face card, they are said to have won second prize. The probability of not
Coles - Jones - Monteiro 3
choosing a face card, or P( face ) = 40/52, or 0.7692, a 76.92% chance. This value multiplied by
P(8) will yield the probability of the player winning second place, or P( second) = 0.0961, which
means the player has about a 9.62% chance of walking away with a sucker and their dollar back.
A player who chooses a face card in the card round is said to have won the grand prize.
The probability of choosing a face card, or P( f ace )=12/52, or 0.2308, a 23.08% chance. The
probability of winning the grand prize, or P( grand ), can be found by multiplying P(8) by P( f ace
). This yields a result of P( grand ) = 0.0288, approximately. This means the player has about a
2.89% chance of walking away with the grand prize of twice their money and a sucker.
Theoretical Probability II
Table 1
Probability Distribution of Cost
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02
Table 1 shows the probability distribution of the players expected winnings, assuming
that a sucker is worth approximately two cents. Using Table 1, one can determine how much the
player can expect to lose, and therefore how much money the host can expect to make per play
by calculating the expected value, as shown in the figure on the next page.
Coles - Jones - Monteiro 4
E($) = 0.826202
By using the expected value formula as shown in Figure 2, one can expect for the player
to lose about $0.83 per play, which translates into $0.83 average gain for the host of the game.
Relative Frequencies
Simulation 1: A set of 50 trials can be easily run by physically playing the game 50
times. When spinning, the number 8 was landed on 7 times out of the 50 spins. That means 43
times we walked away with the third prize. For each time the spinner landed on 8, a card was
drawn from a newly shuffled deck. 3 out of the 7 cards drawn were face cards, therefore we
walked away with the first prize 3 times out of 50. The other 4 cards drawn that werent face
cards drawn won us the second prize out of the 50 trials. The results of the 50 trials can be seen
in Appendix A.
Table 2
Probability Distribution of 50 Trials
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02
Table 2 shows the probability distribution of the 50 trials ran. Using this table, the
E($) = 0.78
From Figure 3 it can be expected that if the game was played 50 times each player would
lose 78 cents each time. Therefore the owner would gain a profit of 78 cents each game.
Simulation 2: The outcome of a larger number of trials can be found easily using a
simulation. Since the first round of the game is a spinner with 8 equal pieces, an online simulator
All the settings were made to be an accurate representation of the real spinner used in the
Before the spinner was spun, the color green was chosen to represent the number 8. The
rest of the colors were 1-7, but were not specified specifically because only the number 8
determined if the card round would be simulated or not. Each piece had a 12.5% chance of
Coles - Jones - Monteiro 6
getting chosen, so one can be sure that it was fair. For the card round, an online simulator of
it drew one card from a new deck for every 8 that was from the spinner round, in this case, 67.
The card simulator showed what card it was, and the output was recorded every time it was a
face card, and every time it was not. In the spinner simulation, 8 was landed on 67 times out of
the 500 spins. That means 433 out of 500 people in this simulation walked away with the third
prize. In the card simulator, 67 cards were pulled from a new deck each time. 13 out of the 67
cards were face cards, which means 13 out of the 500 people walked away with the grand prize.
54 out of the 67 cards were something besides face cards, meaning 54 out of the 500 people
Table 3
Probability Distribution of 500 Trials
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02
Table 3 is showing the probability distribution from the 500 trials in the simulation.
Using that table, the expected cost from 500 plays can be found.
E($) = 0.82
As seen in Figure 5, it can be expected that if 500 would play the game, each person
would lose 82 cents, meaning the host would gain a profit of 82 cents each play.
Coles - Jones - Monteiro 7
Simulation 3: This game is very easily simulated with a java program, such as the one in
Appendix B. This program consists of a random number generator that yields a value between 1
and 8. If the program generates a value from 1-7, it adds one to the total of third place results,
and runs again. If it generates an 8, it moves onto a second random number generator, this time
generating numbers from 1-52. For this simulation, numbers 12 and below count as face cards. If
one of those values is output, it will add one to the total of grand prize results and then start over.
Otherwise, it will add one to the total of 2nd Place results, before starting at the first number
generator again. This process repeats until 5,000 trials have been carried out.
Figure 6, above, shows the output summary of results after running this java program.
Using the probabilities calculated in the section Theoretical Probability I, the expected number of
Figure 7 shows the expected number of each result across 5000 trials. These numbers are
Table 4
Probability Distribution of 5000 Trials
$ -$0.98 +$0.02 +$1.02
Table 4 shows the probability distribution for the simulation of 5000 trials. 87.32% of
people walked away with the third prize, 9.64% walked away with the second prize, and 3.04%
of people walked away with the grand prize. Using all these numbers, the expected value can be
found.
Using the formula in Figure 8, it can be found that in a simulation of 5000 people, each
player would lose about 82 cents on average, and the host would gain 82 cents.
These simulations were run to show the profitability of the game. Both simulation two
and three show an expected value of a player losing 82 cents. Simulation one had a different
expected value, showing the player losing 78 cents. This simulation yielded a different result
because 50 trials is much smaller than 500 and 5000 trials, so the Law of Averages did not have
time to come into play. However, the three simulations were all like enough that the values
yielded by the simulations can be said to give a reliable general idea of what the profits will be
Summary
Alice in Suckerland is a great game for a carnival. Its easy enough that a child can play,
but just complex enough on the surface to intrigue an adult. Anybody who walks through the
carnival will be enticed by the simplicity of the game, and the illusion of ease of winning. It also
has fantastically high profit margins, with the average round yielding $0.82 in profit for the host.
Because the game runs so quickly, these numbers add up quickly. The games simplicity and
interactivity lends it an addictive nature, which would cause players to stick around and try again
and again, losing more money each time. The game also has a timeless Alice in Wonderland
theme, which leverages the power of the franchise to inspire nostalgia in adults and joy in
In creating this game, each member of the group had a distinct role. Jones and Monteiro
worked together to perform simulations one and two, while Coles worked nearby on simulation
three. The spinner was constructed by Jones, decorated by Monteiro, and the shuffler was
provided by Coles. The paper was written as a joint effort between the three group members,
2 7
3 8 No
4 8 Yes
5 4
6 3
7 5
8 2
9 6
10 6
11 6
12 5
13 5
14 2
15 4
16 6
17 2
18 3
19 8 No
20 1
21 2
22 8 Yes
23 2
24 7
25 2
26 3
27 3
28 3
29 5
30 8 No
31 8 Yes
Coles - Jones - Monteiro 11