HOW WELL IS UTAH PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?

A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school – such as an associates or bachelors degree, certificate, license, or completion of an apprenticeship or significant on-the-job training. Currently, far too many students drop out or graduate from high school without the knowledge and skills required for success, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities. The best way to prepare students for life after high school is to align K-12 and postsecondary expectations. All students deserve a worldclass education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

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A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS
The changing economy is accelerating the expectations gap, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills.

Jobs in Today’s Workforce Require More Education & Training

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, Educational Testing Service, 2003.

4

The Rise of the Middle-Skill Jobs

High-skill jobs
Occupations in the professional/ technical and managerial categories. Often require four-year degrees and above

Middle-skill jobs
Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.

Low-skill jobs
Occupations in the service and agricultural categories. Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, significant on-the-job training.
Source: The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs” by Harry J. Holzer and Robert I. Lerman, Brookings Institution, February 2009.

5

Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level

Source: The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs” by Harry J. Holzer and Robert I. Lerman, Brookings Institution, February 2009.

6

Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Utah’s Supply

 In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young
people with high school diplomas or less. Today, less than 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.  One result: In Utah, the demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level.
82% of Utah’s jobs are middle- or high-skill (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).
Yet only 39% of Utah adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher).

Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). “Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform,” Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org; Measuring Up 7 (2008), “The National Report Card on Higher Education. “ http://measuringup2008.highereducation.org/index.php

The Rise of the Middle-Skill Jobs

Utah should be preparing students for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday – or even today.
A quarter of American workers are now in jobs not even listed in the Census Bureau’s occupation codes in 1967. Given the growth of new job sectors – most notably “green jobs” – it is common sense to provide all students with a strong foundation that keeps all doors open and all opportunities available in the future.

Source: Milano, Jessica, Bruce Reed & Paul Weinstein Jr. (Sept 2009). A Matter of Degrees: Tomorrow’s Fastest Growing Jobs and Why Community College Graduates Will Get Them. The New Democratic Leadership Council

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Utah’s Middle-Skill Jobs

Occupation

Median Income (2007)
$37,100

% By Education Level (ages 25-44), 2007 High School
13%

Number of Total Jobs (in thousands) 2006
6.2

Some College
44%

2016
8.0

% Change
29%

Computer Support Specialists Electrical & Electronic Engineering Technicians Radiologic Technicians & Technologists First-line Supervisors / Managers of Construction Trades Civil Engineering Technicians

$48,100

27%

54%

2.0

2.5

25%

$43,800

7%

68%

1.4

1.9

36%

$53,000

60%

30%

10.9

14.3

31%

$41,200

27%

54%

2.5

3.0

20%

Registered Nurses

$56,600

1%

43%

17.1

24.1

41%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Career One Stop. http://www.careerinfonet.org

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America’s International Edge is Slipping

Utah U.S. Canada Japan Korea Israel Norway Ireland Belgium Denm… Spain France U.K.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree

% Adults (25-64) with College Degree

Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance,” 2007 (All rates are self-reported)

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America’s International Edge is Slipping

% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006)
55-64 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 U.S. (38%) Canada (37%) N.Z. (30%) Denmark (28%) Finland (27%) Australia (26%) Sweden (25%) Norway (25%) Neth. (25%) U.K. (24%) Switz. (24%) Japan (23%) Germany (23%) Belgium (22%) Iceland (21%) 45-54 Canada (43%) U.S. (40%) Japan (39%) N.Z. (38%) Finland (34%) Denmark (33%) Australia (32%) Norway (30%) Neth. (30%) Switz. (29%) Iceland (29%) U.K. (29%) Sweden (29%) Belgium (27%) Germany (25%) 35-44 Canada (51%) Japan (46%) Finland (41%) U.S. (41%) N.Z. (39%) Korea (37%) Denmark (36%) Belgium (35%) Norway (35%) Iceland (34%) Australia (33%) Switz. (33%) Ireland (33%) Spain (31%) U.K. (31%) Utah (40%) 25-34 Canada (55%) Japan (54%) Korea (53%) N.Z. (44%) Ireland (42%) Belgium (42%) Norway (42%) France (41%) Denmark (41%) U.S. (39%) Spain (39%) Sweden (39%) Australia (39%) Finland (38%) U.K. (37%) Utah (38%) ALL (25-64) Canada (47%) Japan (40%) U.S. (39%) N.Z. (38%) Finland (35%) Denmark (35%) Australia (33%) Korea (33%) Norway (33%) Belgium (32%) Ireland (31%) Sweden (31%) U.K. (30%) Neth. (30%) Switz. (30%) Utah (39%) 11

Utah (40%)

Source: OECD Education at a Glance, 2007; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2007 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

FAR TOO MANY STUDENTS DROP OUT OR GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL UNPREPARED FOR REAL WORLD CHALLENGES

Of Every 100 9th Graders In Utah…

100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
9th Graders Graduate High School in 4 Years

79

37 23 18

Enroll in College In the Fall

Still Enrolled Sophomore Year

Earn a College Degree

Source: NCHEMS Information Center for Higher Education Policymaking and Analysis. Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/index.php?submeasure=119&year=2006&level=nation&mode=data&state=0

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Achievement Remains Low: 8th Grade Achievement Over Time
% at or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

8th Grade Math
Utah U.S.

1992
22% 21%

2009
36% 32%

8th Grade Reading
Utah
U.S.

1998
31%
33%

2009
33%
30%

8th Grade Science
Utah U.S.

1996
32% 29%

2005
33% 29%

Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from www.nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

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And Gaps Persist: Utah’s 8th Grade Achievement Gap
% at or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

Subgroup
All Students White Black Hispanic Asian

8th Grade Math (2009)
36% 40% n/a 11% 27%

8th Grade 8th Grade Science Reading (2009) (2005)
33% 37% n/a 13% 53% 25% 38% n/a 12% 30%

Native American

18%

10%

n/a

Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from www.nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

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Graduation Rates Remain Inequitable

79% 76% 69% 72% 51% 55% 50%

N/A U.S. Utah

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% American Indian

All

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

Source: Education Week, Education Counts. Developed through the Custom Table Builder, http://www.edweek.org/rc/2007/06/07/edcounts.html

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America’s International Edge is Slipping
Utah U.S. Korea Norway Japan Canada Israel Denmark Germany Netherlands

Ireland U.K.
Iceland

0

20

40

60

80

100

% Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+

% Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+

Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance,” 2007 (All rates are self-reported)

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Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness
Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000, 2003.

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Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation

42% 34% 23% 19% 24% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

13%

8%

6%

Math

Writing

Reading

Reading, Writing or Math

2-Year Colleges

4-Year Colleges
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Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000, 2003.

Most U.S. College Students Who Take Remedial Courses Fail to Earn Degrees
Percentage earning degree by type of remedial coursework

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education, 2004: % of 1992 12th graders who entered postsecondary education.

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How Many College Students Return Their Sophomore Year – and Go On To Earn Degrees?

76%
71% 53% 49% 56% 49% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

U.S. Utah
Persistence (4-Year) Persistence (2-Year)

Completion (4-Year)

Source: Measuring Up (2008). The National Report Card on Higher Education. http://measuringup2008.highereducation.org/index.php; National Center for Education Statistics (2003), Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

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Many College Students in Utah Fail to Earn a Degree
Percent of students earning a bachelors’ degree within six years, 2006

Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.

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The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses, Particularly in Mathematics
Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work … Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math

Science

English

Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies. (2005) Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve.

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A MORE RIGOROUS & RELEVANT HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION WILL OPEN DOORS FOR STUDENTS – AND KEEP THEM OPEN

Personal Benefits of Education in Utah

While there may be jobs available to high school drop outs and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience.

The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:

More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.

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Personal Benefits of Education in Utah

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3% 5% 4% 3% 2%

LEVEL OF EDUCATION
TOTAL HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College Bachelor’s & Above

MEAN INCOME
$33,758 $9,737 $29,452 $30,591 $57,491

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2008). “Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement.” Figures are based on total person within the civilian labor force

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The Importance of Rigorous Course-Taking in Closing Gaps
Students who take challenging courses and meet high standards are much more likely to enter college ready to succeed.
87% of first-generation college-going students – who took a highly rigorous course of study in high school – persisted in college or earned a degree after 18 months. Only 55% of first-generation students who took just a general curriculum persisted that long.

High school students who take advanced math double their chances of earning a postsecondary degree:
59% of low-income students who took advanced math in high school earned a bachelor’s degree. 36% of low-income students who did not complete the rigorous high school course of study earned a bachelor’s degree.

Source: Horn, L. and A.M. Nuñez (2000). Mapping the Road to College: First-generation Students' Math Track, Planning Strategies,
and Context of Support. U.S. Department of Education. http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2001/2001153.pdf; Adelman, C. (2006). The Toolbox Revisited: Paths to Degree Completion from High School through College. U.S. Department of Education.

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8th Graders Taking Algebra I

Source: Measuring Up, 2008:NCES, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) 2003, 2005 Mathematics Assessments.

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Students Participating in Advanced Placement

Percent of all 11th/12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2008)

Source: College Board, “National Summary Reports, 2008.” http://www.collegeboard.com/student/testing/ap/exgrd_sum/2008.html

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Utah’s Students Taking College Admissions Exams

2009
Participation in ACT Average ACT Score Participation in SAT Average SAT Score

Utah
68% 21.8 6% 1657

U.S.
45% 21.1 46% 1509

Source: ACT (2009), ACT 2009 Results. http://www.act.org/news/data/09/states.html; College Board, Mean SAT
Critical Reading, Mathematics and Writing Scores by State. http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/cbs2009-Table-3_Mean-SAT-CR-MATH-and-Writing-Scores-by-State.pdf

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THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP
All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

The College- and Career-Ready Agenda

Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers.

Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma.

Build college-and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems.

Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.

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Utah’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap

In 2009 Utah’s longitudinal data system satisfied all ten essential Data Quality Campaign elements and is one of only 16 states that matches studentlevel data across K-12 and postsecondary systems on a regular basis.

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HOW WELL IS UTAH PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE