The start of global geopolitical location: Q4 2009 / Q2 2010 Step 1: Disputes monetary and financial shocks - Q1 2010 / Q4 2012

, "Currency Wa rs" caused by competitive devaluations, aggressive intervention in currency mark ets, the manufacture of news and information for current speculative push in a c ertain direction, to ... The recent speculative attack ' Euro completed by hedge funds and investment banks on Wall Street and the City of London under the guis e of debt Greek, there is only a first step in a series of monetary disputes wil l increase in years to come. Chinese Anti-American equality Yuan-Dollar will be the "central issue" in this debate International Monetary Fund. Pounds will be v ictim to fall from now on by summer 2010, after the general election that probab ly will leave the UK in a situation like Greece recognition post-election forced on the state of public finances which are in fact infinitely worse than announc ed at the beginning of the crisis. Switzerland already operates a competitive devaluation in relation to the euro, managed by the Central Bank of Switzerland. These "currency wars" will take plac e in capital flows and will ensure that a growing number of countries, particularly emerging countries will follow Brazil's example in imposing controls on trade in capital entering t he country in order to prevent speculation on the exchange rate of its currency. The IMF, already weakened in 2009 by creating a sort of FMA (Asian Monetary Fun d), is increasingly marginalized, with a clear statement from euro zone countrie s from which is "forbidden" in Euroland. The traditional instrument of influence in Washington, the IMF seems to be increasingly limited to countries direct geo political orbit of Washington and the poorest countries, another sign of the dis solution of geopolitical knots in those past decades. The growing suspicions abo ut the exact reasons for the investment banks on Wall Street (including the Gree k role in the crisis, highly suspicious of Goldman Sachs is a perfect example) h as equally caused his exclusion from an increasing number of financial and monet ary agreements. Thus, 'in 2009, there was only one U.S. investment bank among th e top ten to handle the insurance of the national debt of European countries (an d was in last position), while in previous years U.S. banks occupied half of the list . Finally, all these disputes monetary destabilize the market for U.S. Tre asury Bonds and all dollar-denominated assets because they reflect a growing dou bt, especially of governments in Europe, Asia and Latin America towards the U.S. currency and its players and public private. Our team believes that the end of 2012, with elections in the United States, Europe and China, will open one more window of opportunity to learn the lesson that comes from this controversy, mone y and experience, with new leaders, to reestablish a world monetary system. Howe ver, nothing tells us that it will be a case of untapped opportunities like the one in the spring of 2009. For better or worse, 2013, so it will be the year of transition regarding this topic. At the same time, global banks and financial in stitutions are mostly insolvent (because of the continued depreciation of assets on their books) even if they were provided with temporary liquidity by central banks and yet continue to make us ugly surprises. The rapid increase in the numb er of bank failures in the U.S. (according to the FDIC 10% of banks currently in trouble) will be accompanied by further insolvencies worldwide, especially of f inancial players have become dependent in 2006/2007 more debt than it could affo rd, at the height of the financial bubble, and which must be repaid in about 201 1/2012. Step 2: Commercial Litigation - 2010 Q3 / Q4 2013 The "trade war" fueled by an i ncrease in indiscriminate customs duties, as well as vindictive measures (with m ore and more formal complaints to the WTC), by political decisions that limit or prohibit the transfer of funds or economic activities, an increase of public pu rchasing policies with "national or regional priorities," the de facto exclusion from major markets of certain financial or economic actors based on their natio nality ... not comment further on the latter aspect of we mentioned

previously, gradually saw except certain financial transactions to certain marke ts (such as the Eurozone with the American investment banks).€Sino-American tra de relations are once again the center of this dispute. The issue of the yuan-do llar parity is a constituent part. The United States, a president with a Democra tic Party that is in serious difficulties on the eve of the elections in Novembe r 2010, will increase pressure on Beijing, including indiscriminate duties unles s there is a significant revaluation of the yuan. In both cases it is certain th at Beijing will increasingly aggressive in defending its market share, stating h is dissatisfaction. Public opinion counts in China. After the collapse of the so lutions taken in relation to key environmental issue of global warming, the Euro peans play the "environmental card" to justify more restrictive customs policies toward Asia and the United States in particular. Even if the whole world has it s eyes on the axis Washigton-Beijing will be the size of the transactions of the transatlantic world to give the best indication about the status of "trade war" . The recent dispute over aircraft refueling of U.S. Air Force shows the leading European (including British ones) that Washington has no intention to play the game of open markets for this is to form the idea that this is a game "no win". These two areas there are examples where there may be trade friction: the next t hree years will lead to the fall in value and volume of transatlantic trade. Step 3: Crisis countries - Q4 2009 / Q3 2010 collapse or serious weakening of th e debt capacity of the countries due to serious budget deficits, non-payment by public authorities .... The events are not evolving with the timetable last year by our team for the United Kingdom and the United States, but the trail of dust (TNT?) Left from Ireland, Dubai, Greece, .... clearly leads to the barrels in L ondon and Washington will allow Greek Crisis Eurozone to prepare their instrumen ts to moderate risks from other euro zone sovereign debt crises. Looking at the list of eight countries in this edition of GEAB, whose situation and 'worse than in Greece, you can' consider that the Eurozone countries will benefit from the precedent set by Greece (and instruments fielded by Euroland - Supervision budge t and a variety of aid) and hence will be 'protected by a violent shock. Countri es that can not count on anyone except that of the IMF: U.S., UK and Japan. As t he crisis seems to grow along a dangerous curve upward (previously smaller count ries - smaller bombs - explode), the United Kingdom followed by Japan (soon) and finally by the United States may form a probable sequence. Howe ver, as we saw in September of 2008, the crisis may be accelerating violently. I t can not, then ignore the fact that the UK could take quickly head to the other two countries along the way of general mistrust. GILT incremental purchases by the Bank of England. Source: Guardian, through 02/ 2010 Step 4: socio-political crisis - Q1 2010 / Q4 2013 A growing number of strikes a nd social conflicts increasingly violent, the increased power of political parti es with extremist agendas and / or xenophobic, reduction in number of middle cla ss in favor disadvantaged classes, strong increase in violent crime and theft, i ncrease the number of incidents on the border between crime 'and political attac ks, increased domestic terrorism, threats of secession from federal states or au tonomous regions, use the army to maintain this order ... It 'sad to write, but reading the daily press in every Western country shows how these events preparan o.In Europe, the Dutch parliamentary elections will provide another example wher e a large number of votes will go to the party Geerd Wilders (might end second p lace). In the U.S., the growing power of the movement of "Tea Party" and the imp act of mass suicide attack in Austin and policy statements of the person manager, Joe Stack, show the growing extremism of the middle classes (based on r ising unemployment), and the resurgence of domestic terrorism and anti-federal. At the same time, the disadvantaged classes are affected by the crisis much wors

e than the wealthy. In the U.S., estimates of unemployment among the disadvantag ed classes up to 50% (even higher than during the Great Depression of the 30s) c ompared to just under 10% for the upper classes. In Europe, a large number of un employed by the end of unemployment benefits,€The 2010 show was one of the thin gs the same, although tempered by the existing social structure, particularly as regards health. But policies are the degradation of the middle class (including retirees) and the marginalization of young people in the labor market events mo re dangerous for the democratic order of Western nations, since these are thread s that do or undo the majorities. In China, it will be the appearance of the cri sis that will trigger violent repercussions at the heart of the population. Step 5: Strategic Crisis - Q1 2011 / Q4 2013 A rapid increase in the level of th e diplomatic row (a period of verbal exchanges on the edge and breaking of diplo matic relations), a temperature change in the disputes, growing from "cold" to " hot "emergence of new areas of conflict, the growing number of international con ferences and summit postponed indefinitely or canceled, a growing number of demo nstrations of military force in the trade, monetary and other disputes; timely r eappearance at the highest level of any sort of contention, increasing extremism of the media and public opinion about these different conflicts, ... The annive rsary of the Libyan-Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iraq coming out of the sow, an d the defeat of NATO in Afghanistan are the strategic points that will "unravel" faster next year, putting more and more powerful players against one ' another, with the United States to root: Israel and Iran, Iran and Saudi Arabia, India a nd Pakistan ... At the same time, the tension will grow in Taiwan, Georgia, Colo mbia and Venezuela, testing the new boundaries of U.S. power in decline. Our tea m considers that the failure of the Copenhagen summit and the near disappearance of G20 from international news report a process of great fall in the number of international meetings of high-profile international summit canceled, continued references (like the WTC in Doha) where negotiations endlessly increase and cons titute a reliable gauge of this phase. On the other hand, there is a growing num ber of regional summit indicating the formation or strengthening of blocks, and an increased level of latent conflict between China and the United States. LEAP/ E2020 considered unlikely that there is a major military conflict (involving two or more of the major powers) between now and 2013, but this phase will see an i ncrease in the number of low-level conflicts, and will in particular strategic a nd military come to the forefront of the occurrence of other crises: a worrying sign for the rest of the decade. Regarding this point, we believe that the 2012/ 2013 policy will provide an opportunity for new world leaders to take control of this dangerous drift. Focus "Warning of" a list of eight sovereign risks more dangerous in Greece Based on t he latest information, the team honed LEAP/E2020 the risk ranking of countries p ublished last autumn. From this review emerged in eight countries worse off than Greece, thus confirming the anticipated role of greek problem: a tree that hide s the forest. These eight states - the top five in particular - will report in 2 010/2011. Their debt is certainly an investment to avoid, or disinvest as soon a s possible. States themselves will experience increasing difficulties in financi ng their deficits in the coming months, while draining a significant portion of the capital markets they depend on their business. In summary, a list of "rogue states public debt, with falsified statistics, excessive debt hidden dubious cre dibility of the financial and budgetary ... just as major banks failed in 2008-2 009, or kept alive only thanks to the intensive care of public. In compiling the list, our team has focused on financial imbalances (current size and strong tre nds), putting aside other statistics such as growth, inflation, unemployment or debt: all the factors already discussed advances in autumn 2009. But at the mome nt, and in light of how he lived and media markets greek the problem, we prefer to focus on sovereign debt, pure and simple - as more subject to speculation. Th e other reason that has persuaded us to put aside the other statistics mentioned is the growing tendency to gradually tame the crisis forward: the growth rates

or unemployment U.S. are "reworked" just like the headlines of financial news. T hroughout the world, unemployment rates are "directed" by the various countries to conceal the true state of the labor market;€Inflation measured by the indice s is nothing but a farce, because the essential goods (energy, food) are often e xcluded from the statistics to allow the release of softer rates. Our team has r epeated "ad nauseam" that no one can put confidence in macroeconomic statistics of the western states, today. [Note: Because you can never trust those of other states, one asks you how the IMF or WB may make their predictions for the world economy without even mentioning the increasingly uncontrolled fluctuations in ex change rates caused by the U.S. dollar. The (temporary) strengthening of the dol lar against a number of world currencies, over the last three months, change rad ically different parameters thus preventing any serious economic assessment]. Fo r this reason we chose to focus on this particular aspect that drives the financ ial markets and can be measured with reasonable accuracy [Note: That said, we st ress in particular that the U.S. GDP is substantially overestimated. More reliable calculation methods presented in prev ious reports GEAB, giving a deficit / GDP ratio much worse than that published i n this issue, which already places the United States topped the list of countrie s at risk]. The classification of countries have been meeting three factors: the deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2009 and 2010, total loan applications and th e likelihood that the deficit is kept under control until 2012-2013. The first t wo factors, which can be quantified, they decide the ranking, the third determin es the color which is marked with the country, namely: red = negative trend; ora nge = stable trend, green = positive trend. In other words: red = will list up t o 2012-2013 and probably gain positions remain on the list = yellow, green = pro bably will come from the list. In descending order of danger, the eight states w ith sovereign risk than greek are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. United States United Kingdom Ireland Netherlands Portugal France Japan Spain Incidentally, we note that three of these countries (two at the top) are those f or which our team has shown since 2006, the heavy vulnerability to global system ic crisis (U.S., UK, Spain). Obviously, phase after phase of the crisis (housing bubble, banks, economy and public finances hours), some countries see systemati cally eroded credibility and wealth, and it is precisely this continuous process of erosion that leads straight to the economic collapse, social and monetary en vironment in the middle of this phase of global geopolitical location, whose vic tims par excellence "are the United States and United Kingdom. Strategic and operational recommendations Again, we wish to emphasize that our recommendations are not made to address sho rt-term speculation, or to obtain more money, but rather to reduce (or avoid alt ogether) losses, as this is the only realistic target in the middle of a global systemic crisis. Currencies: As anticipated by our team, the euro has withstood the worst frontal attack that the European currency has ever been since its crea tion. 1) Even as the "Greek crisis" was at its peak, has not lost much ground ag ainst the dollar (only three years ago, 1.35 was considered a rate almost imposs ible to achieve). 2) E 'even managed to gain positions relative to other currenc ies such as sterling. Now we are entering a phase counter, as the investigations required by the EU funds and financial institutions that speculated against the euro greek debt - especially through the CDS market - or the strengthening of c ontrols and regulations imposed CDS to create on sovereign debt. Particular atte ntion will be given to the currency UK, which will continue in his fall, and the U.S. dollar, which could see the do wnward trend reversed in proportion to the eventual realization of the state of recession that still exists in the U.S. economy and the continuing deterioration of public debt. In short, nothing new under the sun for readers GEAB. The uncer tainty with respect to Japan (economics and public finance) confirms the positio n of the yen as currency very dangerous. The Brazilian currency is appreciated.

It should be kept under observation Asia (ASEAN countries and Japan): the possib le revaluation of the yuan and the associated speculation, will offer a test of the solidity of the region (as was the case for the Euro zone) when the outcome is uncertain. Stocks / Bonds: Western economies, like China,€will weaken furthe r in coming months. Profits are set to decline in 2009 because businesses are ge nerally limited to take the easiest to cut costs. It 'important to note that thi s year 28 companies of S & P500 chart will pay dividends higher profits. This co urse is a short-term policy that can not be protracted. This category includes m any banks, and this very unusual situation proves unrealistic state of financial markets which, like countries, distributing cash to which they have no hope tha t tomorrow brings better news. LEAP/E2020 believes that the news will only get w orse, given the consumer debt, the saturation of export markets, the stagnation of investment (in the absence of the medium-term) and / or lack of credit. It 's hould therefore focus on activities that do not depend on the public sector, nor the disposition of retail consumers - that essential goods. As for government b onds, it is more necessary than ever confined to countries with a AAA rating and / or protected by a strong regional context (as demonstrated dall'Eurozona curr ently and soon to the test in Asia). Control the degree of socio-political risk countries: We wish now to dwell on the issue of social discontent and political importance of gradually increasing with the development of the global geopolitic al stage of dislocation. It 'necessary to identify criteria and indicators for n eutral and reliable, which can be equally applicable in different contexts, othe rwise it will be impossible to obtain an objective picture of the impact of the crisis in each country and in key regions worldwide. The international media not only do not have these tools, but otherwise have a tendency to manipulate facts to make news or appealing Some people, however, divert attention from others. I n a world relatively stable, this attitude was a nuisance but did not represent a danger. In a world in crisis, it becomes a serious issue because it prevents a ny reliable prediction of events. Translated by misinformation - from M arkozu, Francis, Eleanor