River City Blueprint Forum - Background Paper

4-5 June 2010

The River City Blueprint is a joint initiative of the Brisbane City Council and Queensland Government. This Background Paper is not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government policy. It has been prepared as background for participants attending the River City Blueprint Forum. For further information on this document please contact the River City Blueprint project team on: Phone: 07 3403 8888 Email: rivercityblueprint@brisbane.qld.gov.au Web: River City Blueprint page on Brisbane City Council website (http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/rivercityblueprint) Version Control – Version 1.1 (for web upload) This document has had minor formatting changes to enable improved document accessibility for web distribution.

Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................2 Context.............................................................................................................................................................3 Study Area .......................................................................................................................................................4 River City Blueprint ........................................................................................................................................6 4.1 Background Research..............................................................................................................................6 4.2 Planning Scenarios ..................................................................................................................................9 4.3 Key Strategic Issues...............................................................................................................................13 5 Sustainable City ............................................................................................................................................14 5.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................14 5.2 A Sustainable River City.........................................................................................................................14 5.3 Methodology...........................................................................................................................................19 5.4 Summary of Research Outcomes ..........................................................................................................22 5.5 Shortlist of targets ..................................................................................................................................25 6 Liveable City ..................................................................................................................................................28 6.1 Background Research............................................................................................................................28 6.2 Planning Framework Overview ..............................................................................................................35 6.3 Key Strategic Issues...............................................................................................................................38 7 Inclusive City .................................................................................................................................................39 7.1 Background Research............................................................................................................................39 7.2 Community Attitudes ..............................................................................................................................48 7.3 Key Strategic Issues...............................................................................................................................48 8 Prosperous City ............................................................................................................................................50 8.1 Background Research............................................................................................................................50 8.2 Economic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................51 8.3 Brisbane’s Drivers of Economic Growth.................................................................................................54 8.4 Key economic issues for Brisbane .........................................................................................................55 8.5 Planning Framework Overview ..............................................................................................................55 9 Connected City..............................................................................................................................................58 9.1 Background Research............................................................................................................................58 9.2 Planning Framework Overview ..............................................................................................................63 9.3 Key Strategic Issues...............................................................................................................................67 10 Next Steps......................................................................................................................................................70 1 2 3 4

River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010

Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy

1 Executive Summary
The purpose of this report is to provide the background facts and figures on the growth of the inner city. This information is to inform participants so that they can engage in discussion on the strategic directions and options that will be presented to the River City Blueprint Forum (4-5 June 2010). Brisbane City Council is leading the preparation of the River City Blueprint in partnership with the Queensland Government. The River City Blueprint is intended to be an overarching integrated plan for the state capital, broadening and deepening the thinking around planning for the living, working and lifestyle needs of the inner city. The primary objective is to provide clear strategic direction and coordination of planning and infrastructure projects across all levels of government The initial phases of the project established the baseline data, analysed current and future planning scenarios and identified the strategic planning issues facing the inner city for the next 50 years. As part of the initial phases numerous research reports were completed that addressed transport, economics, social, demographics and land use planning scenarios. This research has been undertaken using collaborative processes that have engaged officers from Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government. The Urban Futures Brisbane Board has also played a critical role in guiding and reviewing the methodology and outcomes. The studies provided the background information to build planning scenarios that could be analysed to determine the strategic issues facing the inner city. The scenarios included:    River City Now (2009) – the current state of the city; River City Planned (2009-2031) – the planned state of the inner city taking into account approved policy and infrastructure projects; and River City Plausible (2031+) – the plausible state of the city taking into account proposed policy and infrastructure projects and population/employment forecasts.

It was concluded that the key strategic issues facing the inner city of Brisbane include:       Defining a sustainable city structure; Shifting the development trend (height/density) from river-oriented to transit-oriented; Providing development capacity to meet employment targets and facilitating the growth of knowledge industries connected to education and health research precincts; Providing housing and lifestyle affordability options that reverse the demographic trend of significantly smaller proportion of couples with children living in the inner city; Providing transport modes and interchanges best suited to connecting people along the river corridor (east-west) and transit corridor (north-south) that does not impact on urban amenity and the attractiveness of the place to work, live and play; and Providing urban amenity (scale, character, quality and quantity of public space) and other community facilities to cater for users of the inner city and to provide an attractive place to work, live and play.

These issues have been addressed through further research and community engagement to develop the proposed strategic directions and options for the inner city of Brisbane that will be discussed at the River City Blueprint Forum (4-5 June 2010). After the Forum, Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government will review the feedback and report back on what you said. Your feedback and the outcomes of the Forum will form part of a consultation report and help shape the draft River City Blueprint to be released later this year.

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2 Context
The River City Blueprint is intended to be an overarching integrated plan for the state capital, broadening and deepening the thinking around planning for the living, working and lifestyle needs of the inner city. The primary objective is to provide clear strategic direction and coordination of planning and infrastructure projects across all levels of government The goal and key themes of the River City Blueprint are:       Sustainable City Framework Connected City: Pedestrian, Cycling, Public Transport and Vehicular Strategy Prosperous City: Economic, Innovation and Creativity Strategy Liveable City: Residential Communities and Urban Amenity Strategy Inclusive City: Social and Cultural Strategy Implementation Action Plan

Graphic 1 Structure of the River City Blueprint – Plausible City Scenario

The development of the River City Blueprint is divided into eight phases comprising:         Phase 1 – Project inception (June-December 2009) Phase 2 – Refine scope, data collection, review and analysis (June 2009-March 2010) Phase 3 – Strategic direction, option development and feasibility (April-May 2010) Phase 4 – Preparing the draft River City Blueprint (June-August 2010) Phase 5 – Exhibition of the draft River City Blueprint (September-November 2010) Phase 6 – Analysis of submissions and issues arising (December 2010-Feb 2011) Phase 7 – Preparing the final River City Blueprint (March-April 2011) Phase 8 – Launching the River City Blueprint (May 2011)

The preparation of strategic policy settings and directions for the inner city in response to the critical issues and research derived in the previous phase is the main priority of the current phase – Phase 3 Strategic direction, option development and feasibility. As part of the initial phases numerous research reports were completed that addressed transport, economics, social, demographics and land use planning scenarios.
River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010 Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy 3

3 Study Area
The River City Blueprint aims to provide an overarching plan for the inner city. The blueprint initially covered an area broadly within a 5km radius from the Central Business District (CBD) as shown in Figure 1. This area was identified given its role as:     Capital city for the State; CBD (Principal Activity Centre) and the strong linkages to other employment generating uses surrounding the CBD otherwise known as the city frame; Level of investment and planning being undertaken by State and local government and the private sector; and Relationship of the area with other significant parts of the city like the Australia TradeCoast/Airport/Port of Brisbane precincts.

Figure 1 River City Blueprint Study Area

Preliminary investigation area (ie land within 5km of the GPO) Core study area (ie the inner area of focus determined through a review of destinations, public transport and road corridors, physical boundaries and projected employment and residential growth, aligned to statistical boundaries for analysis). Area of influence to core (ie the area that has a close relationship to the core study area as it supports the inner city).

The broad definition of the study area was sufficient to scope the project; however a more detailed study area is required for the future phases of the project. The broad definition was refined to:     More clearly identify the study area in spatial terms; Enable easy comparison of future studies and analysis; Potentially allow for elements to be given statutory effect in the future; and Enable stakeholders to identify with the study area.

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The definition of a specific study area is a complex issue that can be viewed from a range of perspectives. The capital city has local, city, regional, state, national and international functions and networks that can drive a desire to increase the size of the study area. The methodology used to create a specific definition included a multi-criteria analysis of the inner city to determine a Core and Frame Study Area for the River City Blueprint. The criteria included:      Destination and drivers; Edges and boundaries; Corridors; Policy foci and projected population density; and Project employment.

The Core Study Area identifies that part of the inner city where the predominant existing/planned activities and proximity mean that it has a primary connection to the city centre. Technically, the core was the area with greatest overlay of the criteria. This area is within the 5km radius and includes places such as the City Centre, Toowong, St Lucia, Milton, Paddington, Kelvin Grove, Albion, West End, Woolloongabba, New Farm, Bowen Hills and Bulimba. The boundary is aligned to census collector district boundaries to enable analysis. The methodology for identifying the study area recognised the tensions between the local and regional functions by introducing a Frame Study Area. The Frame Study Area identifies that part of the inner city where the predominant existing/planned activities serve a local function but the proximity of the area means that there is a connection to the core study area. This boundary is organic and includes places such as Indooroopilly, Ashgrove, Bardon and Hamilton.

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4 River City Blueprint
4.1 Background Research
4.1.1 Opportunities and Constraints Analysis
The research approach has primarily focused on those issues and impacts that have a spatial or built form quality with regard to the current physical form of the City. This analysis is set at a ‘strategic level’ and does not attempt to identify every opportunity or constraint, but rather, only those that are believed to be pivotal in influencing the continued growth and development of the inner city. The analysis utilised a simple ‘integrated overlay’ approach having regard to the spatial delineation of both constraints and opportunities. A range of geographic information system (GIS) data sets were firstly identified having regard to their significance in shaping the continued growth and development of the inner city. These attributes were categorised as either an opportunity or constraint. Constraints were further reviewed and clustered having regard to their relative impact on (and the limitations they pose for) development. The mapped constraints included floodable land, cultural heritage, park, sport and recreation, industry, and steeply sloping land (>15 percent) while opportunities included transport accessibility, land availability, market interest and land use. GIS analysis created an integrated constraints map for the study area whilst a similar process was again employed regarding those opportunities that exist. The resulting integrated constraints and opportunity mapping outputs were then reviewed, spatially analysed and synthesised (having regard to overlapping issues) in order to arrive at a consolidated spatial outcome.

4.1.2 Key Insights Mapping
The key insight mapping output (Figure 2.0) endeavours to identify those inner city locations best positioned to accommodate development in consideration of those factors that may constrain urban growth. Although a range of indicators can be used to gauge the potential of a locality to sustain urban growth and development, the analysis has revealed that those pre-eminent opportunity areas within the inner city are uniformly characterised by inherent access to multiple modes of quality public transport that has a high level of transit frequency. Any additional development will be further investigated as part of this process and future neighbourhood plans. Further insights are as follows: 1. The core of the inner city represents the greatest concentration of intensive high–density development that reinforces the importance of the city centre as the political, economic and administrative heart of the State and South East Queensland. The core supports a vital mix of uses where principal business and administration functions are complemented by extensive retailing, entertainment, education, community and cultural facilities and a rapidly increasing resident population. The locality offers unparalleled vehicular and pedestrian accessibility and is at the heart of the city’s integrated public transport network. 2. The South Brisbane locality is characterised by a high degree of public transport accessibility, acting as a confluence for rail, bus and ferry services, community facilities and open space. The area benefits immensely from its proximity to and emerging synergies with the CBD, and is further characterised by an established and increasing mix of land use activities (including more intense forms of residential development). A range of private, public and vacant land holdings can be found within the locality that are capable of being assembled for development purposes and South Brisbane as a whole has been subject to a wave of development application activity. 3. The inner western corridor benefits from a high degree of public transport accessibility (both rail and bus) providing high speed linkages to the city centre and beyond. The broad locality supports a mix of uses and a structured network of activity centres can be clearly identified. These centres include Indooroopilly, Toowong and (to a lesser extent) Milton. Their immediate surrounds typically support comparatively more intense and mixed land use activities whilst there exists a presence of higher density residential development. 4. A ‘wedge’ of opportunity has been identified, radiating outwards from the city centre towards the south encompassing such established suburbs as Woolloongabba, Dutton Park, Buranda, Stones Corner, Fairfield and Annerley. The opportunities within the ‘wedge’ are primarily a product of the locality’s marked access to a range of public transport services (including rail and both the eastern and south eastern busway) and the immediacy of
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key road infrastructure. The urban fabric within the ‘wedge’ supports an eclectic mix of land uses and a number of discrete centres (and major community facilities including the Princess Alexandra and Mater Hospitals) that provide focal points for activity. More intense forms of residential activity should be investigated throughout the locality and, interestingly, the suburbs of Greenslopes and Annerley have provided a focus for development application activity. This area in particular may benefit from further planning to explore opportunities. 5. The north west corridor of opportunity has been delineated in a way that emanates from the city centre spanning north and capturing the suburbs of Kelvin Grove, Newmarket and Alderley. The corridor gains from access to a range of public transport opportunities (including both rail and high frequency bus services) that provide strong linkages with the city centre. A number of discrete centres of activity can be found within the corridor and there exists a land use pattern that is supportive of more intense forms of residential development beyond that typically associated with more traditional low density areas which needs to be further investigated. 6. The Lutwyche corridor is dominated by the key arterial that is Lutwyche Road. The corridor is serviced by rapid bus services (primarily via the inner northern bus way) and includes important retail destinations and social community facilities such as Lutwyche Shopping Centre and the Royal Brisbane Hospital. Tracts of residential land to the east and west of Lutwyche Road are currently experiencing transition (to more intense forms of urban development) with single detached dwellings no longer dominant. The Royal Brisbane Hospital and RNA Showgrounds exert a major influence on the locality and a number of sizeable freehold and government owned land parcels can be found within the study area. 7. The Mayne Rail Yards complex (and surrounds) in Bowen Hills represents a significant publicly owned land holding and potentially provides a catalytic opportunity for urban development. The locality is highly accessible and there exists an ability to establish linkages with adjoining sites and other large areas of single land ownership such as those held by RNA, Brisbane City Council and Queensland Newspapers. It is however understood that the land provides an important operational function and its current use by Queensland Rail is vital to the function of the transit system. 8. The Hamilton Portside locality is punctuated by a number of large private, public and vacant land holdings that are capable of being assembled for development purposes. Notably, Portside and the Doomben and Eagle Farm Race courses heavily influence the locality. More intense forms of residential activity are supported throughout the locality and a ribbon of mixed use activity can be found along Racecourse Road. 9. The proximity of the inner city to the Australia TradeCoast / Brisbane Airport area is recognised as being of significance given its role as the region’s emerging second largest employer to the CBD. The relationships between the two areas will present opportunities which benefit each other. 10. Indooroopilly is recognised as a key employment node on the fringe of the study area which presents an opportunity to consolidate and intensify land use activities.

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Figure 2 Key Insights Diagram

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4.2 Planning Scenarios
4.2.1 Definitions
A series of planning scenarios have been created to simply describe the complex relationship between the existing plans/projects and forecasts and also to allow assessment of the anticipated outcomes for the inner city. This approach allows a preferred scenario to be constructed that can then be discussed with the community, stakeholders, decision makers and elected representatives. As part of the background research phase the following scenarios were created and evaluated:    River City Now (2009) – the current state of the city; River City Planned (2009-2031) – the planned state of the inner city taking into account approved policy and infrastructure projects; and River City Plausible (2031+) – the plausible state of the city taking into account proposed policy and infrastructure projects and population/employment forecasts.

The key insights are outlined in the following sections.

4.2.2 Development Trends
Dense development in the city centre has historically run east/west along the river corridor and flood plain from Toowong through West End, through the CBD and Spring Hill to Fortitude Valley, Newstead. This pattern is being reinforced by planned development of South Brisbane and North Shore Hamilton, and by ongoing intensification of existing denser areas such as Fortitude Valley. Planned future densification is to occur in a north/south axial direction from Bowen Hills to Woolloongabba, away from the river to follow major public transport initiatives. Key insights are:            Study area comprises land (73 percent), roads (20 percent) and river (7 percent); Predominantly residential (59 percent) land uses; Employment land uses are low (18 percent); Overall residential density is low at 13.28 dw/ha ‘now’ increasing to 21 dw/ha in ‘plausible’; Houses in Demolition Control Precinct cover 50 percent of the study area; The river corridor most intensively developed part of the city in ‘now’ and ‘plausible’; Planned and plausible scenarios identify opportunities along north/south axis; The scale, character and quality of open space and other community facilities along this plausible new (North/South) axis to cater for their future populations; The mode of public transport best suited to connecting people through the east/west and north/south corridors; The impact of new areas of densification upon existing centres outside the core area means growth of existing centres may stagnate; and Development could be considered to be shifting from being ‘river-oriented’ to being ‘transit-oriented’

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Figure 3 Height & Density / Figure 4.0: Demographic Change

4.2.3 Demographic Change
Age profile analysis suggests that families have sought to live in areas on the fringe of the study area and that singles and two person households with no children make up the majority of residents within the study area core. Key insights are:         Families tend to live outside the inner city; Students, young working and elderly, lone person and couples without children households occupy the inner city; High proportion of residents born overseas (45 percent); Number of flats, units and apartments accounts for two-thirds of all dwellings; Half of all dwellings are rented; The intensification of development within the north-south corridor may result in unexpected demographic changes as a consequence of this intensification; The potential for families to be accommodated with the study area core may diminish as higher density living is introduced along transit corridors; and Development trends may reinforce the trend that the inner city is not a place for families.

4.2.4 Places of Work
Areas of projected employment growth align with areas of projected density increase. In turn, both employment and residential land uses will be competing for land in the same areas of the city. The implications of this conflict must be further investigated. Key insights are:      Now scenario includes 323,290 jobs; Plausible scenario forecasts an additional 224,153 jobs by 2031; Will future planning policy need to place a significant emphasis on ‘mixed use’ outcomes?; Places of ‘refuge’ will need to be provided for future employment areas (eg consider the importance of New York’s Central Park to the function of that city); and The Australia TradeCoast represents the area of greatest projected employment growth outside the Brisbane CBD, yet its connectivity to the CBD appears limited.

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Figure 4 Places of Work / Figure 6.0: Health, Knowledge Precincts and Community Infrastructure

4.2.5 Health, Knowledge Precincts and Community Infrastructure
It is evident that planned future growth areas are each located around a major research precinct. This is exemplified when considering:    Bowen Hills / RNA to Royal Brisbane Hospital and UQ Health; Woolloongabba / Buranda to Princess Alexandra Hospital and PAH/ Boggo Road Health and Sciences Precincts; and Auchenflower / Toowong / Milton to Wesley Hospital and Wesley Research.

The city centre also comprises significant non-CBD located knowledge and cultural precincts such as QUT Gardens Point and South Bank Cultural Precinct / Griffith University. Key insights are:      The potential to create a widely understood knowledge economy (New World City) with the need to make Knowledge Precincts integral with growth areas and accessible / inclusive to all people; The recognition that the South Brisbane Riverside growth area could by river links form an integrated precinct with Auchenflower / Toowong / Milton with the Wesley as a health and wellness centre; Jobs growth will occur in knowledge industries and therefore opportunity exists to allocate around clusters; Community infrastructure is not clustered in the planned and plausible city around the north / south axis; and Plan needs to focus on delivery of community infrastructure and human services covering local, city and regional needs.

4.2.6 Public Open Space System
While the traditional east/west growth ‘corridor’ is generally well served by public open space predominantly due to the riverfronts, the planned north/south growth corridor contrasts by its lack of parkland. Key insights are:     While densification in the city centre provides access to a wide range of existing amenities, it is important that parkland of comparable scale is provided (e.g. New Farm Park, Botanic Gardens, Roma Street Parkland) for both recreational amenity and subtropical character; There may be an opportunity to connect the different existing parks into a network that facilitates nonvehicular conflicting movement around the entire city centre by foot and cycle; Will good streets and small scale spaces and plazas be sufficient to provide urban amenity for the areas away from the Brisbane River, or will large scale space be required elsewhere?; Perceived and actual shortfall in open space, ‘now’ provides 3.28 ha / 1000 residents;
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River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010 Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy

 

Assets providing urban amenity focused around the river corridor; and Planned and plausible city require interconnected open space systems in the north south axis.

Figure 5 Public Open Space System / Figure 8.0: Options for Future River Connectivity

4.2.7 City Centre Connectivity
Despite recent CBD river linkages, the remainder of the city centre has only two other links - Story Bridge and Eleanor Schonell Bridge – and thus cannot be said to be well - connected. Key issues are:          Where, if any, are priorities for future river links and what movement modes should they facilitate (pedestrian, cycle, public transport, vehicular). Potential candidates are: Wesley Hospital to Davies Park West End; CBD East to Kangaroo Point; Kangaroo Point to New Farm; and New Farm to Hawthorne / Bulimba. Legible, coherent and safe links required; Prioritising fine grain and small scale movements, as substitute for car over short distances required that will also boost public life through people in public realm; Despite recent CBD river linkages, the only river linkages outside the CBD are the Story and Eleanor Schonell Bridges; and

4.2.8 Public Transport Integration
Planned and likely densification appears to be occurring more rapidly than public transport connectivity through the city centre, with decisions still to be made on types of transport systems (e.g. heavy rail, metro rail, light rail) that are appropriate and on their corridor locations. Key insights are:      Inner city transport demand is forecast to increase to 2.4 million trips/day by 2031 (up from 900,000 trips/day in 2006); Capacity is an issue as planned development appears to be occurring more rapidly than public transport connectivity through the city centre; It is vital to determine the optimum type(s) of public transport modes that provide the most efficient and attractive method of connectivity. The mode(s) may be different from those presently envisaged; The integration of movement between modes (e.g. rail, bus, ferry, other) with pedestrian / cycle routes is likely to prove the difference between an adequate and an exceptional movement network; and The best alignments and locations (above or below ground) are yet to be determined for much of the plausible infrastructure.
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River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010 Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy

Figure 6 Public Transport Integration / Figure 10.0: Road Infrastructure

4.2.9 Road Infrastructure
The primary focus of plausible road infrastructure is to move traffic into and out of the study area core. This may mean greater amenity is created in areas which will have less traffic as a result, whilst amenity in areas where traffic is increased may be affected. Key issues are:   Planned and particularly plausible road infrastructure appears to promote a more efficient traffic system and seems to provide an ‘underground’ ring road for the city; and Planned and plausible road infrastructure appears to support the Australia TradeCoast connections to the city’s other areas of employment and services, although Kingsford Smith Drive remains a significant gap in the network.

4.3 Key Strategic Issues
The key strategic issues to be addressed by the Draft Structure Plan include:       Defining a sustainable city structure; Shifting the development trend (height/density) from river-oriented to transit-oriented; Providing development capacity to meet employment targets and facilitating the growth of knowledge industries connected to education and health research precincts; Providing housing and lifestyle affordability options that reverse the demographic trend of significantly smaller proportion of couples with children living in the inner city; Providing transport modes and interchanges best suited to connecting people along the river corridor (east-west) and transit corridor (north-south) that does not impact on urban amenity and the attractiveness of the place to work, live and play; and Providing urban amenity (scale, character, quality and quantity of public space) and other community facilities to cater for users of the inner city and to provide an attractive place to work, live and play.

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5 Sustainable City
5.1 Introduction
The Sustainable City Framework, including targets and evaluation processes, is being developed to support the River City Blueprint. It will set the strategic direction for the Blueprint towards the desired sustainability outcomes. The Sustainable City Framework has five components (Figure 7). This section sets out the Vision, Principles and the methodology used to develop the Sustainable City Framework. It also documents the outcomes of research on the policy framework, including national/International goals and agreements and Goals and Targets. The Sustainable City Framework has been informed by research and workshop exercises and will be further refined through the outcomes of modelling, additional research and the River City Blueprint Forum. As a capital city Brisbane has multiple roles to fulfil. The River City Blueprint will help the community, Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government to shape answers to the following questions for Brisbane:        How will we live? How will we move around the city and surrounds? Where will we work? And at what? How and where will we play? What condition will the environment be in? What standard of living will we have? How will it differ from today? How equitable will our standard of living be?

Figure 7 Components of the Sustainable City Framework

5.2 A Sustainable River City
‘ Cities are realising that sustainability forms an effective, long term planning framework which can simultaneously raise the standard of living, provide equality to city residents, drive the economy, create a more liveable city and prepare the city for a range of possible futures.’ (The Natural Edge Project, Urban Sustainability Literature Review, Smart Cities Masterplan, 2008).

5.2.1 Sustainable City Framework
The Sustainable City Framework will define sustainability targets for the River City Blueprint. The targets can be used to both influence and measure decision making. They represent a culmination of relevant targets set by the State Government and Council. Where necessary the targets are also augmented by international best practice. As illustrated Figure 8, the Sustainable City Framework integrates, and links to other strategies and establishes targets for assessment. The framework also provides a standard measure for testing various land use and infrastructure scenarios, providing an analysis of the links between decisions we take now and future outcomes.

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Figure 8 The links between the Sustainable City Framework and the River City Blueprint Strategies

There are five components that make up the Sustainable City Framework for the River City Blueprint. These are:      National and international goals and agreements Vision and principles Goals/ targets Shifts/ actions Evaluation criteria

An overview of these components is provided below. The Targets, Shifts and Evaluation are discussed in further detail in later sections.

5.2.1.1 National and International goals and agreements
National and international goals and agreements have been established by the Federal Government and international treaties. In some cases they are binding, whilst others provide guidance or processes for cities on sustainability.

5.2.1.2 Vision and principles
The vision and principles have been established by BCC in consultation with the Queensland Government and community and are reflective of overarching strategic directions and local planning strategies within the study area. ...active and healthy communities, drive a strong economy, sustain a clean and green environment, create a city of cultural vibrancy and provide an enduring legacy of liveability for future generations. (Living in Brisbane 2026, our shared vision)

5.2.1.3 Targets
The Queensland Government and BCC have many policy targets, many of which relate to sustainability. These targets have been further reviewed and refined through workshops, research and reviews of international case studies. The Framework also involves the application of high-level Strategic Impact Modelling to identify sustainability short-falls.

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5.2.1.4 Shifts
One of the most important outcomes of the sustainability framework is the identification and evaluation of potential shifts. These shifts may involve policy, governance, technology, urban form, housing typologies, lifestyle choices and community attitudes. Consideration of the implications of these shifts on our future scenarios needs to be included to ensure we are not planning for a future that falls short of existing sustainability targets, and community expectations. Shifts are fundamental responses required to meet the identified goals and targets that will be developed in response to the outcomes of the strategic impact modelling, and with reference to case studies, will be further identified as part of our work.

5.2.1.5 Evaluation criteria
Evaluation criteria will be used to reflect on the shifts identified. This process will occur after the strategic impacts modelling is complete, and consider the rationale, and implications of each of the shifts.

5.2.2 Scenarios
Three key scenarios of a future Brisbane have been developed to inform development of the River City Blueprint (River City Blueprint, Background Research and Scoping Final Report, Urbis, 2010). These scenarios provide an analysis of the likely outcomes of policy and decisions up to 2031. The scenarios will also provide a vehicle for testing whether the current policy directions will deliver the goals and targets defined in the Sustainable City Framework. The scenarios are ‘River City Now’, ‘River City Planned’ and ‘River City Plausible’.    ‘River City Now’ models current planning frameworks and policies and existing infrastructure. ‘River City Planned’ models Brisbane in 2031 taking account of existing planned, approved and funded projects. River City Plausible models Brisbane in 2031 taking account of proposed or indicative projects.

The scenarios are described below.

5.2.2.1 River City Now
The ‘Now’ scenario effectively provides a snapshot of the current situation.
Snapshot
Population Jobs Dwellings (total) Key Projects

River City now
246,217 323,290 105,783 @13.28 dwellings per hectare Existing road infrastructure including CLEM7 and Go Between Bridge, existing public and active transport (Bus, BUZ, Rail, Ferry) Sub regional Cycle Network, Kurilpa Foot Bridge, Kelvin Grove Urban Village

Source: Background Research and Final Scoping Report (Urbis, 2010)

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Figure 9 River City Now

5.2.2.2 River City Planned
The ‘Planned’ Scenario projects the probable city form taking into account current planning frameworks and approved and funded infrastructure projects, as listed below.
Snapshot
Dwellings Key Policy

River City Planned
121,034 (based on the Priority Infrastructure Plan) Brisbane City Plan 2000 Neighbourhood Planning All existing Local Plans in Brisbane City Plan City West ULDA Areas Woolloongabba Bowen Hills; and Northshore Hamilton Airport Link Northern Busway Eastern Busway (Buranda to Main Ave) Bus Rapid Transit (West End to Newstead) New City Cat Terminals East-West Link Bikeways – City Cycle Princess Alexandra Hospital Expansion Queensland Children’s Hospital QUT Science and Technology Precinct Southbank TAFE Education Precinct The Edge, South Bank Boggo Road Urban Village

Key Projects

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Figure 10 River City Planned

5.2.2.3 River City Plausible
The ‘Plausible’ Scenario projects a likely city form taking into strategic planning directions and proposed but not necessarily funded or committed infrastructure projects. The scope of the scenario is described below.
Snapshot
Projected Population - 5 Projected Jobs - 6 Projected Dwellings -7 Key Policy

River City Plausible
316,808 547,443 170,241 @ 21.36 dwellings per hectare Brisbane City Council Local Plans Toowong Auchenflower Renewal Strategy Kangaroo Point South Renewal Strategy Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront Neighbourhood Plan Fortitude Valley Neighbourhood Plan Lutwyche Road Corridor Renewal Strategy Eastern Corridor Renewal Strategy 2009 South Brisbane Riverside Renewal Strategy Milton Rail Neighbourhood Plan Bulimba District Neighbourhood Plan Indooroopilly Centre Neighbourhood Plan Racecourse Road Neighbourhood Plan TransApex (East West Link, Northern Link) Cross River Rail Western Busway Eastern Busway (Main Ave to Capalaba) New City Cat Terminals Veloways Brisbane Metro City Centre Master Plan (Laneways, Small Scale Spaces)

Key Projects

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Source: Background Research and Final Scoping Report (Urbis, 2010) 5 Source: PIFU (Medium Services) 6 Source: Employment by Place of Work, Early Convergence (5th Run) National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) 7 Source: Brisbane Urban Growth Model(High Growth Series)

Figure 11 River City Plausible

5.3 Methodology
5.3.1 Overview
Brisbane City Council (BCC) adopted a six-step process and program for the development of the Sustainable City Framework that involves analysis, modelling and detailed stakeholder and community consultation. This is depicted in Figure 12 and each the steps are discussed below. Figure 12 Development of the Sustainable City Framework

The following sections provide a brief overview of the methodology.

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5.3.2 Step 1:Transect Study
Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government have an extensive range of performance targets relevant to the inner-5km area of Brisbane. A key task in the development of the Sustainable City Framework has been the identification of targets that are directly relevant to activities and decisions within the study area, and can be readily measured. This has been done via a process of identifying and refining a list of targets with stakeholders. Brisbane City Council undertook and documented a Transect Study to identify all goals and targets that may have relevance to the Study Area. The resultant Transect Document identified 84 relevant goals and targets from eight Brisbane City Council Policies and Plans, and 11 Queensland Government policies and plans. These included:                  Brisbane City Council, Our Shared Vision Living in Brisbane 2026 Summary Brisbane City Council, Program 1 City Smart, Brisbane City Council Brisbane City Council, Brisbane’s Watersmart City Strategy Brisbane City Council, Transport Plan for Brisbane 2008-2026 Brisbane City Council, Clean Air Strategy for Brisbane Brisbane City Council, Towards Zero Waste Brisbane City Council, Two Million Tree Project Brisbane City Council, CS5 Carbon Neutral Policy Department of Environment and Resource Management, South East Queensland Regional Natural Resource Management Plan 2009 – 2031 Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Sustainable Housing Department of Infrastructure and Planning, SEQ Regional Plan 2009-2031 Department of Premier & Cabinet, Towards Q2: Tomorrows Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Smart 2050 Queensland Government, SEQ State of the Region Report 2008 South East Queensland Healthy Waterways Partnership, South East Queensland Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012

5.3.3 Step 2:Transect Workshop
A facilitated workshop provided a forum for project stakeholders from BCC and State Government agencies to discuss and refine sustainability targets that were identified in the Transect Study. The workshop was attended by a range of Brisbane City Council and Queensland Government representatives and included representatives from 13 agencies.

5.3.4 Step 3: Framework/Modelling
The methodology for the framework/modelling phase is depicted in Figure 13. Figure 13 Methodology for Framework/ Modelling Phase

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5.3.4.1 Evaluate and Interpret Policy Guidance
Policy Review
To ensure that the applicable guidance and direction from Local, State, National and International Policy and guidance has been considered throughout the development of the Sustainable City Framework, the following policy and guidance documents have been reviewed or sought out.
Level
International

Title
Brundtland Commission Report, 1987 Agenda 21 and Local Agenda 21 'ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability' Local Action 21 Compact Cities Programme The Melbourne Principles Cities for Climate Protection

National

State of the Cities Report Capital Cities Plans

State

South East Queensland Regional Plan South East Queensland State of the Region Report Towards Q2 Sustainable Planning Act

Local

Living in Brisbane 2026 Brisbane City Council Corporate Plan 2007-2011

This process complements the work undertaken as part of the Transect Study, maintaining a broader focus on sustainability processes for cities, rather than the detail of targets and goals. Theme mapping between the River City Blueprint Themes (strategies) and key State Government and Brisbane City Council Policies was undertaken (Figure 16). This is intended to reinforce the relationships between the strategies, the Sustainable City Framework and these policy documents.

Case Studies
A series of case studies was examined to identify themes and frameworks applied in other cities. While each city has unique strategic challenges and advantages, as informed by constraints and opportunities, the over-arching structures for assessing the sustainability of future plans have degrees of similarity. Therefore, identifying key learnings from the approach of other cities is useful in refining the targets and goals for the River City Blueprint. The following cities' sustainability strategies and plans were examined to identify commonalities and experiences, in particular, where shifts have been implemented, how they have been implemented, and the nature of their outcome:       Adelaide Melbourne New York Sydney Auckland Vancouver

River City Blueprint Charette (Step 5 of BCC Methodology)

5.3.4.2 Vision and Principles
Preliminary Vision and Principles for the Blueprint are based on the vision outlined in existing planning frameworks. These are being refined for the study area via the various studies and consultations underway.

5.3.4.3 Targets
As described previously, a short-list of targets relevant to the study area was identified in the Transect Workshop. Further research and analysis has been undertaken to refine that list to 10 targets that, if achieved, would exemplify sustainable development in the Blueprint area.
River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010 Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy 21

5.3.4.4 Strategic Impacts Modelling
Strategic Impacts Modelling will be used to evaluate at a high level whether the identified Targets are likely to be achieved within the current planning and policy framework. The modelling will be based on the Planned and Plausible scenarios as described earlier and will draw on global experience and urban modelling processes to project a future scenario relevant to each of the targets. The modelling is currently underway and will be informed by the results of the Blueprint.

5.3.4.5 Shifts
“Shifts” are defined as substantive policy changes that are required to deliver a specific outcome. Shifts will be identified in this project when the strategic impact modelling identifies that a target is unlikely to be achieved via the current planning and policy framework. Shifts will be evaluated via the Strategic Impact Modelling to determine their feasibility and scope to deliver the desired target.

5.4 Summary of Research Outcomes
5.4.1 Learnings from Case Studies
Leading sustainable cities display multiple facets of leadership. Ultimately it is the combination of bold and brave visions and initiatives which can guide their constituents. The overarching similarity between the plans examined was that effective plans and strategies were articulated visions that could be understood within logical analysis frameworks. In some cases, such as Sydney and Vancouver, multiple documents were issued to meet various stakeholders’ requirements. Notably, glossy engaging documents were issued to clearly communicate the vision and associated initiatives along with detailed technical documents demonstrating varying degrees of modelling. The boldness and extent of proposed changes varied between the cities, depending on whether a plan or strategy had been issued. Some, such as New York, have issued a plan which emphasises the practical implementation and details hundreds of initiatives which in concert will result in direct and indirect sustainability outcomes. Others, such as the City of Sydney, have issued a strategy which has selected and emphasised key initiatives, such as the implementation of localised energy generation, or the City of Auckland with congestion charging. The objective of the document is to illustrate a sustainable future through holistic thinking. The presentation of sustainability frameworks differed between cities. However, ultimately the key indicators were represented within all the frameworks. Notably, most of the cities addressed equity and social issues spatially rather than measuring them through direct metrics. Most city sustainability documents examined built a base on the challenges and opportunities and integrated these with policy platforms. This was further iterated by 30+ reference which concluded that implementation was more critical to sustainability outcomes than the framework. A key difference across the frameworks was the degree of complexity in the number of targets, indicators and initiatives identified. Some, such as the City of Vancouver, articulated seven sustainability design principles for the city. The complexity is related the ability for the community to engage directly with the sustainability vision and outcomes articulated. Embedding sustainability is both a process and an outcome, which was reflected in the difference between many of the documents. Some were more focused on the outcomes, such as New York, whereas others outlined further detail associated with the decision-making frameworks and modelling. For example, the sustainability strategies from the United Kingdom, which are bound by a European Union Directive to comply with the Sustainability Appraisal Framework, extensively detailed the process and outcome. The key learnings from case studies can be summarised as:     Get the basics of the framework right, and focus on the implementation mechanisms; Keep a short number of targets; Provide transparency in the process and outcomes; and Be bold and take leadership

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5.4.2 Selecting Targets
Targets are at the core of the development of the Sustainable City Framework. They form the basis against which future scenarios can be tested, to determine whether and what shifts might be required. The Transect Study identified 84 established targets from Brisbane City Council and Queensland Government Policy documents. These were further refined and prioritised through the Transect Workshop and ongoing research, analysis and stakeholder and community consultation. Our analysis identified that 35%of targets are influenced by activities in the study area and can be measured within the study area. Figure 15 summarises the currently proposed shortlist of targets. It is expected that these may evolve further depending on discussions to be held during the River City Forum. We note that there are some issues that are not directly represented in the selected targets. For example, climate change adaptation was explicitly noted through the Transect Workshop process but is not currently represented in the short-list. Investigations are currently underway into using existing established state and local targets to address the issue of climate change adaptation. For example, the Background Research and Scoping Study Report suggested appropriate targets could be found in the South East Queensland Regional Plan and Toward Q2, namely that development:   Facilitates reduced greenhouse gas emissions through the alignment of development density with transport corridors; and Plans for flood immunity and resilience to potential climate change.

The range of targets was reviewed and a short-list produced. This short-list of targets is available in Section 5.6 Shortlist of Targets.

5.4.3 Strategic Impacts Modelling
As outlined in the methodology, Strategic Impacts Modelling will be undertaken for the indicators identified in Figure 15 to assess whether the future scenarios are likely to achieve the selected sustainability targets. Where modelling shows that the targets will not be met through delivery of the plausible or planned scenarios, shifts may be recommended to achieve the target. The basis of the Strategic Impacts Model is informed by trend analysis and will help to inform answers to the following questions:        How good or bad is the current situation? Do trends show that it is getting better or worse? How far is the current situation from any established thresholds or targets? Are the problems reversible or irreversible, permanent or temporary? How difficult would it be to offset or remedy any damage? Have there been significant cumulative or synergistic effects over time? Are there expected to be such effects in the future?

Any uncertainty in the modelling will be managed through the use of data informing expert opinion, rather than the creation of fictitious precision. It is important to acknowledge that the modelling outcomes are high level, and are being used to inform the view of whether or not specified targets will be met in future, and therefore, absolute values will not be determined as part of this process. There is an opportunity for neighbourhood plans to explore ways of achieving these targets in precincts across the city.

5.4.4 Shifts
‘Shifts’ can be defined as the progression that would be required to move from the current status (normally business as usual) to a position where goals and targets will be met. Shifts would only be required where a gap, deficiency or lag between the scenario outcome and the policy/goal/ target is identified, through strategic impact modelling or other forms of analysis. An example of a big shift in Brisbane is the Target 140 program which delivered substantial and previously unheard of changes in urban water consumption in Brisbane. International examples of shifts include the introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Curitiba and Bogota, which saw dramatic transformations from car dependence to public transport patronage. In Curitiba this change was delivered via small projects over three decades with a clear vision providing the ‘glue’ for individual projects and decisions.

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A range of implementation mechanisms will be required to enable the shifts to occur. These implementation mechanisms often overlap or are related, sometimes driving others. They are summarised below.      Policy can be a key driver for the implementation of shifts, however policy is dependent on supporting processes, acceptance and evaluation mechanisms. Governance structures are a key force in driving shifts, and implementing change and require consideration. Some of the shifts will be dependent on technology. This includes the emergence of new technologies, or simply adopting technology that delivers efficiency gains. This may also include the subsidisation of technologies to bring about more rapid ‘shifts’, which links back to governance, policy and economics. Economics-driven shifts may be dependent upon local, national and world markets. Often these will be at the heart of change, however the rate of change can vary from incremental to overnight. Community attitudes and expectations are key to the implementation and acceptance of shifts. Viewed as positive or negative impacts on the community’s way of life, potential barriers will need to be understood and overcome through expectation management, and gradual acceptance of the changes that need to occur. Education processes to encourage behaviour change Land use and urban design are at the heart of the delivery of many shifts. This encompasses how we live, move, work, play, and interact.

 

Once identified, the Shifts will be evaluated to determine whether they will achieve the targets in the study area. This will include assessing the implications for implementation, including cost, political goodwill, community acceptance, social equity, timeframes and flow on effects. Each big shift identified will be evaluated against a framework similar to the following, to determine a hierarchy of appropriate recommendations. When the potential impact is deemed to be high, but the ease of implementation is low, this will inform the timeframes for implementation. The future scenarios will be remodelled taking into account the likely implementation of Big Shift to verify that the targets are likely to be met in the nominated time frame. Figure 14 Prioritisation tool for determining five shifts

Evaluation of the Shifts will involve consideration of the following aspects:           Could these work for Brisbane? What would we need to change? Can we adapt? (do we have the capacity? What would we need to get the capacity?) Do we want to adapt? What is the cost/ outcome if we don’t? Which strategy does it link to? What targets/s does it deliver on? Does it catalyse other shifts or changes? Are other shifts or changes required before this one can happen? Ease of implementation? Timeframe for implementation? (degree of readiness and willingness measure)

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5.5 Shortlist of targets
Figure 15 Current Shortlist of Targets
Descriptor
Carbon Neutral by 2026

Selected target
Brisbane to be carbon neutral by 2026 (with 50% from reduction)

Source
Our Shared Vision Living in Brisbane 2026

Proposed Indicators
Brisbane emissions, Electricity fuel mix, Population, Density, Vehicle ownership, Building approvals, Dwelling type

Strategies
Liveable, Connected, Prosperous

Sustainability
Environment

Rationale
Carbon emissions are generated by changes in land-use and the consumption of non-renewable energy sources. Indicators that are generally used to inform the trajectory of increases in carbon emissions are related to emissions in the community are related to population size, vehicle ownership, residential densities and disposable income. Additionally, industrial and commercial emissions can be determined from the number of employees across different industry sectors. Population density is identified as a key strategic and sustainability challenge for South East Queensland. Cities which are planned around densities of 30 dwellings or jobs per hectare have increased sustainability outcomes associated with social interaction, increased pedestrianisation, increased health, decreased energy consumption. The growth corridors will be specifically studied. Housing affordability was reflected as an important indicator of sustainability within the River City Blueprint area by stakeholders to maintain equity and diversity. The levels of housing affordability will be determined by assessing the median income for core workers and comparing this to the average rent or residential purchase price within the study area. Air quality can be affected by behaviour and activities external to the study area, thus influencing the performance against this measure within the study area. Population external to the study area and industrial activity are identified as the key drivers to potential changes in this target. Accessible transport network is often a function of population density. However, not all the inner 5-km region falls along public transport nodes and transport corridors and therefore this target is also important independently. Accessibility is a function of both available and interconnected connected cycling and walking infrastructure. The length of available active transport infrastructure will be used as a key measure, along with actual use.

Compact Urban Form

To achieve a more compact development within the Urban Footprint, within and around regional activity centres and public transport nodes and corridors

South East Queensland Regional Plan 2009 – 2032

Density, Brisbane Urban Growth (BUG) data, Population, Land-use, Household size, Households

Liveable, Connected, Prosperous, inclusive

Social, economic

Housing affordability

Housing spending to represent 30 per cent of gross household income

Target pending revision – outcome of Charette

Employment, Projected employment, Average salaries, Average house price, Average rental price

Prosperous, inclusive, liveable

Social, economic

Improved air quality

Improve air quality compared to 2009 baseline

Clean Air Strategy for Brisbane/ pending

Air quality, Employment figures, Population

liveable

Environment

Active and public transport

Increase contribution of cycling (to 5 per cent) and walking (to 12 per cent) to 24-hour mode share by 2026 Public transport to account for 58 per cent of peak public transport by 2026 in the inner city

Transport Plan for Brisbane 2008 – 2026 (combined target)

Extent of network, Bikeway expenditure over time, Journey to work (cycling), Population Peak transport mode share, Journey to work

Connected, inclusive

Social

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Public transport is related to many of the other targets, but is also being assessed and measured independently. It was reinforced through the Transect Workshop and further stakeholder discussions as a key element of sustainability which requires independent analysis. Use of public transport is a function of available extent and reliability of infrastructure and accessibility.

Public and Green Space

Brisbane will have a city-wide network of major urban parks which will be used by 60 per cent of the population more than once a week By 2016, the ecosystem health of Brisbane’s waterways, the River and Moreton Bay will be maintained and improved from the 2009 baseline Targets from City-wide and SEQ plans require revision to reflect the urban nature of the Blueprint area. Number of precincts delivering ‘vibrancy’

Our Shared Vision Living in Brisbane 2026

Park sport and rec land use, Open space audit, Tree cover

Connected, liveable

Social

Public space design is critical for Brisbane, given the extreme climate. Again, in assessing how the scenarios measure against public space will be a function of the availability of land to be used for sport and recreation purposes and the number of people who are utilising that land. Whilst there are significant influences on this measure that will occur external to the study area, there are many opportunities where water quality outcomes will be affected by decisions, land use, built environment design and retrofitting actions within the study area. Targets for the whole of Brisbane and South East Queensland are currently being revised to reflect appropriate measures. This target links strongly with the public and green space target.

Water Quality

Healthy Waterways report card for Lower Brisbane Catchment +

Healthy Waterways report card for Lower Brisbane Catchment, plus more specific measures under discussion with BCC e.g. natural habitat protected in the study area, tree cover

Liveable

Environment

Urban Biodiversity

Pending – SEQ regional Plan and BCC

Liveable

Environment

Vibrant Precincts

Pending

e.g. number of active frontages, diversity of uses, hours of operation of precinct

Liveable, inclusive, connected, prosperous

Social, economic

This target is currently being built up to reflect the desirable places, spaces, and activities that would result from a sustainable city.

River City Blueprint themes

Relevant dimensions in the State of the Cities reports
Brisbane LGA Productivity – economic output/ growth – productivity/ innovation – service/ knowledge industries Liveability – living affordability Social Inclusion and equity – economic

Relevant indicators from living in Brisbane 2026
Brisbane LGA Smart, prosperous city – Healthy Economy – Outstanding city profile Subtropical designed city – Effective growth management – Well designed and responsive built

Relevant indicators in the SEQ regional plan (2009)

SEQ State of the Region report (2008)

Relevant indicators from Toward Q2
Queensland wide Strong - Creating a diverse economy powered by bright ideas

Inner city Prosperous city

South East Queensland region Desired regional outcome (DRO) 1: The region grows and changes in a sustainable manner— generating prosperity, maintaining and enhancing quality of life, minimising the use of resources, providing high levels of environmental protection, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and becoming resilient to natural hazards including the projected effects of climate change and oil supply vulnerability. DRO 9: Plan for employment to support a strong, resilient and diversified economy that grows

South East Queensland region DRO 1 Sustainability – population growth, ecological footprint, ecosystem services DRO 9 Economic development – labour force and unemployment, employment and economic diversification, research and innovative commercialisation, household income, export of goods and services

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resources – Housing

environment

prosperity in the region by using its competitive advantages to deliver exports, investment and sustainable and accessible jobs. DRO 8: A compact urban structure of well-planned communities, supported by a network of accessible and convenient centres and transit corridors linking residential areas to employment locations establishes the context for achieving a consolidated urban settlement pattern. DRO 12: A connected and accessible region based on an integrated transport system that is planned and managed to support more compact urban growth and efficient travel; connect people, places, goods and services; and promote public transport use, walking and cycling. DRO 6: Cohesive, inclusive and healthy communities have a strong sense of identity and place, and access to a full range of services and facilities that meet diverse community needs. DRO 7: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are actively involved in community planning and decision-making processes, and Aboriginal traditional owners are engaged in business about their country. DRO 12 Integrated transport – vehicle km travelled, journey to work, mode share, public transport patronage, car availability, vehicle occupancy, road congestion, freight movements

Connected city

Productivity – congestion/ transport Liveability – accessibility (to services etc by PT) Social Inclusion and equity – Accessibility (to services etc by PT)

Subtropical designed city/ accessible connected city – Green and active transport

Inclusive city

Social Inclusion and equity – Employment – Education – Disability

Friendly, safe city/ Vibrant, creative city/active healthy city – active and healthy communities – better public health – connected and engaged communities – inclusive, caring communities – learning and informed communities – safe communities Clean, green city – clean air – food in the city – sustainable water use – healthy river and bay – towards zero waste – cleaner sustainable energy use – green and biodiverse city

DRO 6 Strong communities – addressing disadvantage, social capital, health status, healthy lifestyles, housing affordability, police services and crime rates, education benchmarks, vocational training and education, – knowledge of cultural heritage, DRO 7 engaging Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – indigenous equity

Smart – Delivering world-class education and training Healthy – Making Queenslanders Australia's healthiest people Fair – Supporting safe and caring communities

Liveable city

Sustainability – water – energy – climate change – air pollution – waste Liveability – health – amenity – housing

DRO 2: A healthy and resilient natural environment is protected, maintained and restored to sustainably support the region’s rich biodiversity and ecosystem services including clean air and water, outdoor lifestyles and other community needs that critically underpin economic and social development. DRO 3: Key environmental, economic, social and cultural values of the regional landscape are identified and secured to meet community needs and achieve ecological sustainability. DRO 10: Plan, coordinate and deliver regional infrastructure and services in a timely manner to support the regional settlement pattern and desired community outcomes. DRO 11: Water in the region is managed on a sustainable and total water cycle basis to provide sufficient quantity and quality of water for human uses and to protect ecosystem health.

DRO 1 Sustainability – quality of life DRO 2 natural environment – emissions to water, air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change trends, DRO 3 regional landscape – landscape heritage, outdoor recreation opportunity, outdoor recreation participation, scenic amenity DRO 8 Urban Development – urban structure, urban form, housing mix, DRO 10 Infrastructure – electricity demand, electricity generation, use of energy from renewable resources, waste disposal DRO 11 Water management – residential potable water use, water usage

Green - Protecting our lifestyle and environment

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6 Liveable City
6.1 Background Research
6.1.1 Population and demographic projections
South East Queensland is the fastest growing region in the country and that trend is expected to continue. At the regional level, the population of South East Queensland is forecast to increase by 2 million people to 4.4 million by 2031 (SEQRP 2031). Citywide the population is expected to increase from 991,000 to 1,270,000 people (additional 279,000 people) by 2031. In 2006, the inner 5km of Brisbane included 231,526 people and 105,783 dwellings (ABS, 2006 Census). The Planning Information and Forecasting Unit (PIFU, Queensland Treasury) estimates that the 2009 population of the study area was 246,217 people or approximately 25 percent of the Brisbane Local Government Area. Figure 16 Projected population change (Persons) by DISTRICTS and STUDY AREA, 2006 and 2031

CHANGE by DISTRICTS 2006-2031

0-4

% 0-4

5 to 14

% 5 -14

15-24

%15-24

25-64

%25-64

65-84

%65-84

85 & over

%85 & over

Total persons

% total persons

NORTH CENTRAL NORTH WEST NORTH WEST SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH SOUTH EAST EAST Total change in Study Area 2031

727 493 -207 317 447 118 245 -253 1887

82.05 19.08 -14.38 19.29 79.54 10.05 12.69 -17.66 16.19

1184 2347 173 770 725 590 1236 116 7141

109.33 59.03 7.99 26.39 63.37 31.22 43.38 4.92 38.85

3756 2679 364 418 1251 511 1405 96 10480

49.15 35.72 9.05 2.62 37.15 15.55 20.63 3.41 20.39

9308 9988 -1252 3153 6895 1850 3176 544 33662

40.80 40.01 -9.29 13.56 68.85 16.55 13.33 4.45 23.75

1943 2982 1591 2216 1082 1193 2266 1901 15174

82.09 78.89 99.31 63.13 73.71 69.93 65.06 129.06 78.26

289 335 207 580 225 226 259 141 2262

62.02 42.95 71.88 103.39 103.69 64.20 36.48 50.72 61.94

17207 18824 876 7454 10625 4488 8587 2545 70606

48.80 43.19 3.81 15.58 63.34963 22.92 21.68 12.36998 28.68

Brisbane City Council’s BUG Model calculates dwelling capacity on the basis of specific land use policy settings, site development constraints and take-up rates as they relate to individual sites. The BUG Model has calculated the capacity of the study area to be approximately 75, 000 additional dwellings to 2031 based on City Plan (including neighbourhood plans and renewal strategies) and proposed development areas under the River City Blueprint. The BUG modelling supersedes the PIFU projected population data. The demographic analysis of the existing population (PIFU and ID Profile) highlights the following key findings as important for the study area:       The age structure is distinctly different from that of the broader metropolitan area as it has a significantly larger proportion of young working-age adults and a significantly smaller proportion of children and teenagers; Inner Brisbane has a high proportion of residents born overseas (45 percent); Households are predominantly couples without children and lone-person households. The proportion of couple families in inner Brisbane with children is only around one third that of Brisbane as a whole; The number of flats, units and apartments doubled in the 10 years to 2006 and represents nearly two thirds of all dwellings; Renting is by far the most common dwelling tenure type, accounting for half of all dwellings. Rents are also significantly higher than in the rest of the City; and In the five years to 2006, inner Brisbane gained a net population increase of over 37,000 people from migration and of this net gain, more than half was in the 15-29 years age category.

PIFU has also completed demographic projections for the population to 2031 (Figure 16). Based on this work the community will comprise:   5-14 age group significantly increases by 10,480 children (38.84% increase) 65-85 age group significantly increases by 15,174 people (78% increase)
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River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010 Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy

The implications of the population and demographic projections for the study area are clear. A ‘business as usual’ approach to land use policy will see an increase in the number and proportion of smaller units in the inner city to satisfy population growth and will further reduce the diversity of household type in the study area. This approach risks creating a city where families live outside the inner city and couples without children and lone person households live in the inner city.

6.1.2 Housing type and density
Over the next 20 years it is forecast that the housing type in the inner city will continue to shift to the attached dwelling housing type. Approximately two in three dwellings are currently attached, however by 2031, almost four in five dwellings will be attached in the inner city. This will mean that a house in Brisbane’s inner city will be a rare housing type, although it will continue to dominate the urban structure because of the expansive footprint they occupy. It is also likely that these houses will be timber and tin as almost half of the current housing stock in the study area is protected by the Demolition Control Precinct. Dwellings are currently accommodated in the 65 percent of the inner city that allows residential development (59 percent residential classification and 6 percent mixed use). In accordance with observations, the overwhelming majority of the residential land use is low density to low-medium density (94 percent) while medium and high density use is small and scattered (6 percent). Yet, the decrease in the number of detached dwellings and the significant increase in the number of attached dwellings in the study area demonstrate the significant impact of urban consolidation and infill housing policies. Based on the forecasts however, it is obvious that such policies will not translate into significant increases in housing density. Dwelling density on the basis growth projections is shown spatially in Figures 17 and 18. The areas with the greatest dwelling densities include Teneriffe, Kangaroo Point, Spring Hill and parts of Auchenflower (Coronation Drive) and Toowong. However, Figure 17 clearly demonstrates that density is not related to height as parts of Teneriffe have the same density (greater than 51 dwellings/hectare) as Kangaroo Point. The inner 5km of the city currently have a gross density of 13 dwellings per hectare that will increase to 21 dwellings per hectare in 2031. This confirms that the study area is low in density. In comparison, all other Australian capital cities have a greater density than Brisbane while other cities such as Paris, Singapore and Barcelona have significantly greater densities (P. Newman, Urban Density, 1995). Figure 18 demonstrates that existing and future policy settings are further intensifying the river plain with limited dwelling density being achieved in transit corridors and centres away from the river (with the exception of Old Cleveland Road). As a result, residential densities for housing near transit corridors must be identified in the River City Blueprint to ensure that the areas of opportunity are planned using transit oriented development principles. The demographic data for the study area also identifies that the inner city has significantly fewer children and families while accommodating higher levels of lone-person households and couples without children. The homogenous residential apartment types and the cost of housing are perpetuating this trend. Housing type and affordability therefore needs to be re-evaluated if the age and household demographics are to be diversified.

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Figure 17 High Growth Scenario Dwelling Density 2006 (BUG)

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Figure 18 High Growth Scenario Dwelling Density 2031 (BUG)

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6.1.3 Public space and urban amenity
Urban amenity is broadly defined as being the functional qualities, services and aesthetics of an area that attracts residents, employees and users. In the inner city it is considered that these aspects include parks, sporting fields, squares, vibrant streets, river, character of the area, vegetation and could be extended to include walkability and connectivity with other places of high urban amenity. Public space is one element of urban amenity and it is one of the main issues raised when additional residential dwellings are proposed in inner city Brisbane. Public space is defined as publically accessible areas including parks, sporting fields, bushland, creeks and waterways, the Brisbane River, gardens, attractive and safe streets, plazas, and entrances to shopping centres, community gardens, bikeways and paths, spaces around libraries and art galleries, and link between these elements. The issues with public space can be divided into two elements, being quantity and quality. Green and open space planning for urban consolidation – a review of the literature and best practice (Byrne and Sipe, 2009) provides an historic overview of parks planning and interactions between greenspace and density. The research suggests that we should not assume that just because people live in higher density environments that they will necessarily use neighbourhood public spaces and other green areas more frequently. In actual fact, people in these environments will seek out leisure-based travel like countryside trips, or other places for leisure and recreational experiences. The research points out that there are three important factors to consider when planning for increased density and public space use:    Different types of people who live in higher density built environments will have different public space needs; The integration of existing public spaces into denser built environments – many parks, for example, will have historically been designed for different people than the residents that consolidation brings; The character of the built environment affects how people use urban public spaces – urban design must ensure that public spaces are easy to get to, safe and of a high quality.

The preferred approach to the supply and distribution of public space therefore needs to consider the needs and characteristics of people living in higher density urban environments. The people that live in higher density housing in the inner city of Brisbane are differentiated by age, income, household composition and culture and therefore there is no ‘typical resident’. This impacts on parks in the following ways – older people are less likely to use parks than younger people; families may access small parks with younger children and sport parks for older children; adolescents and young singles may require spaces for active recreation such as skateboard parks, sports ovals and tennis courts, swimming pools and even rock climbing walls, and places to socialise. Needs assessment based on the demographics therefore provides greater insights to the size and type of spaces required rather than a planning standards based approach. Figure 19 Comparisons of open space provision (Ha/1,000 persons) (City of Sydney Open Space & Recreation Needs Study 2007)
Population Land Area (Ha) Total Park Area (Ha)
760 377 84 65 107 142 480 2,443 2,336 14,977

Park Area as Percentage of Land Area
12.7% 14.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.6% 13.5% 13.1% 11.2% 19.3% 19.1%

Ha of Parkland per 1000 residents
3.28 2.36 1.72 1.64 3.79 2.58 7.38 4.20 3.10 1.80

Brisbane City (inner 5km)* City of Sydney Leichhardt Ashfield Strathfield North Sydney Melbourne City Seattle*** San Francisco*** New York***

231,526 158,742** 48,705** 39,494** 28,206** 54,970** 65,000** 572,475 744,230 8,104,079

5,975 2,615 1,003 830 1,309 1,050 3,650 21,723 12,094 78,558

* Brisbane Area Classifications for Parkland and Sport & Recreation ** Source: City of Sydney Estimates 2006 *** Source: Trust for Public Land – City Park Facts

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The inner city of Brisbane currently has 3.28 hectares of park per 1000 residents (Figure 19). This figure includes land in the public estate as park but not all open space such as waterways, bikeways and paths etc. The quality of the parks in the inner city varies and not all provide opportunities for recreation. The quantity of parks and open space in the inner city is dependent on the historical subdivision pattern where land was set aside, and contemporary planning decisions that have led to the development of new spaces like Newstead River Park and South Bank. Brisbane compares relatively well with other cities nationally and internationally. Open space provision and infrastructure charging is guided by the Brisbane City Council Desired Standards of Service (DSS) for each Park Classification (Park Type). The DSS for higher density locations is outlined in Figure 20. These standards limit the amount that Council can charge new developments for the parks system in the city. Figure 20 Desired Standards of Service for Parkland in Higher Density Locations (Brisbane City Council)
Park Type
Informal Use Park (Local, District, Metro and Urban Common)

Purpose
To provide a setting for informal recreational and social activities

Description
Park that is developed and used for informal, unstructured recreational and social activities, such as walking, picnicking, playing and skating. Informal Use Parks are usually multipurpose and contain a range of infrastructure.

Standards for Higher density locations, centres and corridors
Local – 0.3ha / 1000 people within 400m of dwellings, min size 0.2-0.5 ha District – 0.4ha / 1000 people within 2km of dwellings, min size 5.0 ha Metro – 0.4 ha / 1000 people across Brisbane, min size 5.0 ha Urban Common – 0.02 ha / 1000 people within 800m of dwellings, min size 0.3 ha

Total Informal Use Park / 1000 people - 1.12 ha Sport Park (District and Metro) To provide a setting for formal, structured sport activities Park that is developed and used for formal, structured sport activities such as team competitions, physical skill development and training. Sport Parks can be single or multipurpose and contain indoor or outdoor facilities designed and managed for one or more sport activities plus ancillary facilities. Sport Parks generally have a lease or license arrangement over part or all of their area. District – 0.5ha / 1000 people within 2km of dwellings, min size 1.0-6.0 ha Metro – 0.5 ha / 1000 people across Brisbane, min size 14 ha

Total Sport Park / 1000 people - 1.00 ha Total Public Parks / 1000 people - 2.12 ha

Across the Brisbane Local Government Area, the following benchmark for the provision of Local Public Park Infrastructure allows comparison of Local Public Park Infrastructure over larger areas of the city. The value of the benchmark is largely to allow Local Public Park Infrastructure comparison with other local governments, regions of the city and between Wards. The benchmark does not recognise past settlement patterns and should not be utilised at a localised level to guide park planning (other than to consider historical provision of park). The benchmark for the provision of Local Public Park infrastructure is: Provide parks for residents at the rate of 40 hectares for every 10,000 residents, comprising:    20 hectares for every 10,000 residents in the form of Informal Use Parks (all sub-types), Corridor Link Park (multipurpose and pedestrian/cycle subtypes only), Natural Area Park (informal recreation node only) and 20 hectares for every 10,000 residents of sport park (general sport only) Provide parks for workers in industrial estates at the rate of 10 hectare for every 10,000 employees. These parks should be centrally located to the catchment and co-located with other worker facilities such as snack bars, kiosks and toilets.

The green space system (parks and sport parks) for the inner 5km of the city is shown in Figure 21. The figure shows parks (dark green) are primarily provided around the river and creeks and the 400m walkable catchment (light green) covers the majority of study area. Nevertheless, there are areas of the inner city where the green space is too little and too hard to find.
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Figure 21 Green space network analysis and 400m walkable catchments

While it is acknowledged that the quantity of public space will need to increase as additional dwellings are constructed in the inner city, it is considered that the desired standards of service and benchmarks, while useful, have limited application when investigating open space provision in older areas due to historical settlement patterns. For example, an additional 75,000 dwellings in the inner city would require an additional 286ha of open space to meet the DSS. The standards are also deficient as they are based on the amount that can reasonably be charged for the open space network through the development process. Provision of space beyond these standards or to rectify historical undersupply therefore needs to be funded from alternative revenue sources, for example South Bank, Newstead River Park, and Kangaroo Point Park where ex-government land was reused for public purposes. The quality of public space, or its design, function and facilities, is a critical factor affecting its use by people. Issues affecting public space use include safety, cultural differences, aesthetics, accessibility, time, attitudes, preferences and ability. The needs-based assessment considers the socio-demographic and bio-physical characteristics of areas for which public spaces are needed, or where facilities will be upgraded. As noted earlier the demographic trends for the inner city are:      The age structure is distinctly different from that of the broader metropolitan area as it has a significantly larger proportion of young working-age adults and a significantly smaller proportion of children and teenagers; Inner Brisbane has a high proportion of residents born overseas (45 percent); Households are predominantly couples without children and lone-person households. The proportion of couple families in inner Brisbane with children is only around one third that of Brisbane as a whole; The number of flats, units and apartments doubled in the 10 years to 2006 and represents nearly two thirds of all dwellings; In the five years to 2006, inner Brisbane gained a net population increase of over 37,000 people from migration and of this net gain, more than half was in the 15-29 years age category.

This demographic profile, combined with the higher density mixed-use urban environment of the inner city, means that public space needs to go beyond parks and sporting fields to include public space as public realm,
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streets, squares, malls and green space. The destinations, experiences, facilities and good quality design on offer in a broad range of places will combine to provide a high quality public space network for residents, employees and visitors. A well connected public space system provides greater opportunity to access active and passive recreational opportunities. With the exception of the Brisbane River and other creek corridors the public space system in Brisbane lacks a coherent, legible network of connections (Figure 21). Gehl suggested that the key considerations for public space should be:          Quality – visiting public space is a voluntary activity and therefore the ‘quality’ of the space attracts people Diversity of uses – public spaces create unique possibilities for a wide range of activities which cannot take place elsewhere Core flavour – public space ‘flavour’ is often defined by its landmarks. For Brisbane, the river is the central landmark both connecting and separating precincts and public spaces. The river could have a far stronger presence as a unifying element and identifier. Streets as public space – streets are generally wide enough for pedestrians and footpath dining but frequently suffer from heavy traffic. Destinations in pedestrian network – like pearls on a necklace, public space provides points of activity and concentrated public life along corridors Inner city recreation – Brisbane’s public space palette needs to include spaces within easy reach of main thoroughfares where people can take a break from the urban pulse and chill out Access to green areas – all people should live within 400m / 5min walk from some form of green recreation area, without having to make complex detours through hostile traffic environments to get there Green pocket parks – can help increase access to green areas, particular where larger parks cannot be established. These spaces should be within easy reach and located near thoroughfares and complement the existing formal parks and green spaces. Green connections – to form coherent green paths through the city, existing green areas can be linked with green corridors that provide recreational and exercise possibilities along the way

6.1.4 City identity and urban design
Brisbane is unique with its subtropical climate and character, its meandering river and tributaries that create quiet residential suburbs that are loved by their residents, its parklands and hills surrounding the inner city and its Queenslander house. These are the attributes that Brisbane people love. The growth of the inner city and provision of development and infrastructure have improved the functioning and quality of life in the city, but at the same time have also impacted on the quality of the urban fabric. During the 70s and 80s the removal of significant heritage buildings and construction of freeways impacted on the aesthetics of the city and river. More recently large scale infrastructure has changed the appearance and function of communities in the inner city. This change has led to improvements in some places for example Woolloongabba streetscape works and urban common around the ventilation stack. Other international cities like Vancouver and Singapore have successfully transformed and retained their image and identity. The strategic directions in the Blueprint include proposals that will significantly transform the shape and appearance of the inner city over the next 20 to 50 years; for example, the metro and river crossings, and southern commercial node centred on Woolloongabba and Buranda (Park Road). The critical challenge will be to ensure that exemplary design is integrated into all plans and projects to retain the city’s subtropical character, sense of place and liveability at the citywide and local levels.

6.2 Planning Framework Overview
6.2.1 Visions
Both the Queensland State Government and Brisbane City Council have broad visions and targets that address current and future challenges and underpin policy and service delivery. In terms of the Liveable City: Residential Communities and Urban Amenity Strategy the following goals are relevant to the inner city of Brisbane.

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Figure 22 Vision outcomes relevant to the Liveable City
Toward Q2 – Tomorrow’s Queensland (Queensland Government)
Green Environment - Protecting our lifestyle and environment Target 1: Cut Queenslanders’ carbon footprint by one third with reduced car and electricity use Target 2: Protect 50% more land for nature conservation and public recreation

Living in Brisbane 2026 – Our Shared Vision (Brisbane City Council)
Clean, green city Our targets for 2026:    to restore 40% of mainland Brisbane to natural habitat to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to reuse 100% of wastewater

Well-designed subtropical city

Our targets for 2026:     to increase the number of street trees from 470,000 in 2006 to 610,000 for both Brisbane and Brisbane City Council to be carbon neutral for all households to be fitted with 5a water-saving devices our energy use per year to be the lowest in Australia

6.2.2 Regional Planning Framework
The South East Queensland (SEQ) Regional Plan 2009-2031 is the pre-eminent plan for the region and takes precedence over all other policy and statutory planning instruments. The purpose of the plan is to manage regional growth and change in the most sustainable way to protect and enhance quality of life in the region. In terms of growth and protecting the liveability of the region, the plan has a focus on accommodating new residential development and providing public space. Under the SEQ Regional Plan, Brisbane is required to provide 156,000 additional dwellings by 2031, of which at least 138,000 are to be provided in infill locations. Desired Regional Outcome 8, Compact Settlement provides the strategic intent for the residential, public space and design elements in the inner city of Brisbane that must be addressed by the River City Blueprint. In the inner city, the plan promotes infill development and renewal of under-used areas around urban activity centres that have existing facilities, services and amenities and along public transport corridors and nodes where the public transport system can best service the additional population. Higher density mixed use that balances the residential, employment and service function is supported around Brisbane’s CBD and surrounding frame area (including Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill, Milton, Albion, Newstead, Woolloongabba, Bowen Hills, South Brisbane and West End). Precincts suitable for development in accordance with transit oriented development principles include areas within a comfortable 10 min walk of a transit node. The City Centre is specifically nominated in the transit oriented development precinct typology given is excellent transit connections and existing high density and mixed use built form. Recommended residential densities in the study area range from 40-120 dwellings per hectare (net) or greater. Housing options to meet the diverse needs of the community are also to be provided through a range and mix of dwelling types and sizes. Green space that is integrated into the urban structure, is high quality and caters to community and environmental needs is identified as an important element in developing and existing communities like the inner city. Aside from quantity issues, the quality, function, experience and connectivity of urban green spaces should also be considered. The SEQ Regional Plan also recognises that design excellence and innovation must be achieved in all buildings and infrastructure and they should reflect the subtropical climate and reinforce local character.
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The South East Queensland Infrastructure Plan and Program (SEQIPP) supports the SEQ Regional Plan and sets out the infrastructure requirements and delivery program.

6.2.3 Local Planning Framework
The SEQ Regional Plan requires all local planning documents to achieve the strategic intent of the regional plan. The Brisbane City Plan 2000 provides the regulatory framework for land use planning within the city. The City Plan is divided into the Strategic Plan, Assessment Tables, Local Plans, Codes and Infrastructure Charges Plans. The City Plan is currently being revised to align with the strategic intent of the Draft CityShape, SEQ Regional Plan and the Sustainable Planning Act 2009. The Strategic Plan establishes a network of mixed-use employment / residential centres supported by residential areas with a range of densities and ancillary facilities and services. The Local Plans override the general provisions and create specific outcomes that relate to the unique opportunities and challenges of a place. The more recent Local Plans have aligned with the outcomes the SEQ Regional Plan given the age of the Strategic Plan. Neighbourhood Planning and Urban Renewal Brisbane (URB) undertake precinct based land use and infrastructure planning, policy and project work within the study area. They are responsible for preparing the nonstatutory Renewal Strategies and statutory Local Plans. URB is currently active in Newstead, Fortitude Valley, Milton, Auchenflower/Towong, South Brisbane Riverside, Kangaroo Point South and Eastern Corridor (BurandaCoorparoo), while Neighbourhood Planning is active in Lutwyche Corridor and Bulimba. Recently completed Local Plans cover the City Centre, Albion and Woolloongabba Centre. Older Local Plans cover areas including Spring Hill, Latrobe and Given Terraces, West End Woolloongabba, New Farm and Bowen Hills. The Codes regulate the amount of the development allowed on a site and the provision of service and facilities like car parking and landscape open space. Specific Codes exist for all mixed use Multi-Purpose Centres and Residential Area Classifications. The City Plan also protects timber and tin homes that were constructed prior to 1946 and are included in a Demolition Control Precinct. Given the historical development pattern of the city, approximately fifty percent of the study area is included in a Demolition Control Precinct.

6.2.4 Urban Development Areas
The Urban Land Development Authority (ULDA) was established by the Queensland Government to help make housing more affordable and to deliver a range of housing options for the changing needs of the community. Their role is to plan, carry out and coordinate the development of land in selected urban areas. The Authority is active in three areas within the study area, specifically Bowen Hills, Hamilton Northshore and Woolloongabba (Go-Print). Development schemes are approved for Bowen Hills and Hamilton Northshore. The Woolloongabba Urban Development Area was gazetted in April 2010. It is important to note that the Urban Development Areas are not included in the Brisbane City Plan 2000.

6.2.5 Community Attitudes
The Your Bright Ideas stand provided an opportunity for the community and stakeholders to familiarise themselves with the project and have they say on the issues and long term solutions. The activity engaged with over 1600 people over a three month period. In terms of the liveable city strategy, open space was the most frequent issue raised, which was only second behind transport for the whole project. Other issues discussed are outlined in the word picture in Figure 23.

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Figure 23 Your Bright Idea Stand key issues raised by community

6.3 Key Strategic Issues
The Liveable City: Residential Communities and Urban Amenity Strategy must address the following key strategic issues facing the inner city:       Amount of land available for residential development and proportion that can feasibly be provided in the inner city subject to infrastructure provision, diversity and affordability to assist in achieving the dwelling target set under the SEQ Regional Plan 2009-2031; Increased residential densities that are sensitive to place and character by developing a new compact medium density building typology that can transition from high density nodes and corridors to established communities; Determining appropriate ratios of residential in mixed use areas; Define city identity and character and the relationship with Queenslander Timber and Tin houses built prior to 1946 and covered by a Demolition Control Precinct; Ensure that a diversity of housing type and affordability is provided so that families are not excluded from the study area, but also recognise that the demographics include higher levels of people in their 20s and over 65; The perceived and actual shortfall of public space in the study area needs to be addressed by broadening the definition of public space to include parks, sport and recreation, streets, squares, malls and waterways; auditing spaces in terms of size, activities, facilities and management; improving the quantity and quality of space according the needs of the people; investigating opportunities to better use existing assets, and connecting public spaces. Currently the study area includes 3.28 hectares of parkland per 1000 residents but the forecast dwelling capacity is an additional 75,000; Investigate opportunities to better utilise other Council and State owned assets and the left over space in 2 the city. For example, roads account for 16,174,938 m or 20 percent of the land in the inner city which could be used as sub-tropical boulevards to form a green web; Identifying the role of the Brisbane River and tributaries as a unifying element and identifier; and Ensure that exemplary design is integrated into all plans and projects to retain the city’s subtropical character, sense of place and liveability at the citywide and local levels. Investigate sensitive ways to achieve infrastructure outcomes without further fragmenting the city or affecting the established urban character of the inner city communities.

  

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7 Inclusive City
7.1 Background Research
7.1.1 Scoping Report
The Social and Cultural Strategy Scoping Report identified the following issues and challenges to be considered by the River City Blueprint Inclusive City Strategy:      Identification and support of Human Service Hubs: Identify human service clusters and hubs and investigate strategies for consolidation; Gentrification: Identify strategies to balance the trend of gentrification in the inner city to maintain population and income diversity and community organisations; Implementation: Ensure the focus is on implementation, as there has been a substantial amount of planning without implementation strategies to support the delivery of social outcomes; Multiple layers of need: The plan provides social infrastructure at a neighbourhood, metropolitan and State wide level, balancing the needs and the impacts of the capital City function with the neighbourhood requirements will be a continuing challenge; and Consultation: Ensure that consultation with the not-for-profit sector particularly is backed by a commitment towards implementation.

7.1.2 Population and demographic projections
South East Queensland is the fastest growing region in the country and that trend is expected to continue. The population of South East Queensland is forecast to increase by 2 million people to 4.4 million by 2031 (SEQRP 2031). Brisbane’s population is expected to increase from 991,000 to 1,270,000 by 2031 (additional 279,000 people) (PIFU 2008). In 2006, the River City Blueprint study area consisted of 231,526 people and 105,783 dwellings (ABS, 2006). The Planning Information and Forecasting Unit (PIFU, Queensland Treasury) estimated that the 2009 population of the study area would be 246,217 people or approximately 25 percent of the Brisbane Local Government Area. Figure 24 below shows the PIFU population forecasts for the River City Blueprint plan area by region and age group. Figure 24 Projected population change (Persons) by DISTRICTS and STUDY AREA, 2006 and 2031

CHANGE by DISTRICTS 2006-2031

0-4

% 0-4

5 to 14

% 5 -14

15-24

%15-24

25-64

%25-64

65-84

%65-84

85 & over

%85 & over

Total persons

% total persons

NORTH CENTRAL NORTH WEST NORTH WEST SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH SOUTH EAST EAST Total change in Study Area 2031

727 493 -207 317 447 118 245 -253 1887

82.05 19.08 -14.38 19.29 79.54 10.05 12.69 -17.66 16.19

1184 2347 173 770 725 590 1236 116 7141

109.33 59.03 7.99 26.39 63.37 31.22 43.38 4.92 38.85

3756 2679 364 418 1251 511 1405 96 10480

49.15 35.72 9.05 2.62 37.15 15.55 20.63 3.41 20.39

9308 9988 -1252 3153 6895 1850 3176 544 33662

40.80 40.01 -9.29 13.56 68.85 16.55 13.33 4.45 23.75

1943 2982 1591 2216 1082 1193 2266 1901 15174

82.09 78.89 99.31 63.13 73.71 69.93 65.06 129.06 78.26

289 335 207 580 225 226 259 141 2262

62.02 42.95 71.88 103.39 103.69 64.20 36.48 50.72 61.94

17207 18824 876 7454 10625 4488 8587 2545 70606

48.80 43.19 3.81 15.58 63.34963 22.92 21.68 12.36998 28.68

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Figure 25 SLAs with highest percentage of growth, 2006-2031
SLA
West End Bowen Hills Fortitude Valley Newstead Albion Woolloongabba Indooroopilly South Brisbane Windsor City Remainder Study Area Brisbane LGA

Population 2006
6,590 1,652 5,673 5,113 2,521 4,059 11,209 4,427 6,385 4,658 246,217 991,260

Population 2031
13,947 8,407 11,122 10,520 6,424 7,385 13,980 7,158 8,420 6,646 316,823 1,220,543

Change number
7,357 6,755 5,449 5,407 3,903 3,326 2,771 2,731 2,035 1,988 70,606 229,283

Change percentage
111.64 408.90 96.05 105.75 154.82 81.94 24.72 61.69 31.87 42.68 28.68 23.13

Brisbane City Council’s BUG Model calculates dwelling capacity on the basis of specific land use policy settings, site development constraints and take-up rates as they relate to individual sites. The BUG Model has calculated the capacity of the study area to be approximately 75, 000 additional dwellings to 2031 based on City Plan (including neighbourhood plans and renewal strategies) and proposed development areas under the River City Blueprint. It should be noted that these projections supersede the PIFU population projections that do not include the most up to date plans.

7.1.2.1 Measuring Disadvantage
The Disadvantage, Need and Risk Ranking (DNR) produced by the Department of Communities and the ABS Socio-Economic Index of Areas (SEIFA) were reviewed in order to establish areas of disadvantage within the study area. For the purposes of the Inclusive City Strategy, the SEIFA and DNR data was analysed at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level to show areas of disadvantage and need which also correspond to the location of support service clusters. The SLAs in the study are grouped into SEIFA quintiles with Quintile1 being the most disadvantaged to Quintile 5 being the most advantaged. These have been displayed in Figure 26. Five of the 41 SLAs were found to fall in the lower quintiles, however no SLAs fell within Quintile 1. This demonstrates that the study area is relatively well advantaged compared to the rest of the state and only small areas of the study area are disadvantaged.

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Figure 26 SLA ‘s by their SEIFA ranking and quintiles
Quintile 2006 Statistical Local Area Name (SLA) Ranking within Queensland
IRSD 2 Dutton Park Woolloongabba 3 West End Annerley Bowen Hills Lutwyche 4 Highgate Hill South Brisbane Fortitude Valley Greenslopes East Brisbane Spring Hill Fairfield Windsor New Farm Albion Kangaroo Point City – Remainder Kelvin Grove Wooloowin 5 Milton Newmarket Coorparoo Red Hill Alderley Yeronga City – Inner Balmoral St Lucia Herston Norman Park Hamilton Toowong Bulimba Wilston Indooroopilly Paddington Hawthorne Bardon Newstead 958 968 999 1011 1016 1023 1029 1032 1034 1035 1037 1040 1044 1047 1050 1050 1054 1058 1060 1060 1065 1066 1066 1070 1071 1076 1079 1080 1082 1083 1085 1087 1091 1092 1095 1096 1099 1106 1118 1132 Rank 131 149 226 251 266 286 291 297 300 307 311 318 336 346 352 353 360 376 377 379 385 386 386 397 402 407 410 412 416 420 422 426 431 433 437 440 444 450 461 471

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Figure 27 SEIFA Disadvantage Ranking Quintiles: showing SLA’s in Quintiles 2 to 4

The spatial distribution of SLAs by SEIFA IRSD data reveals a north south pattern of Disadvantage. The corridor stretches from Annerley in the south via Woolloongabba, Dutton Park, West End and Bowen Hills to Lutwyche in the north.

7.1.2.2 Findings
The demographic analysis of the existing population (PIFU and ID Profile) highlights the following key findings as important for the study area:       The age structure is distinctly different from that of the broader metropolitan area as it has a significantly larger proportion of young working-age adults and a significantly smaller proportion of children and teenagers; Inner Brisbane has a high proportion of residents born overseas (45 percent); Households are predominantly couples without children and lone-person households. The proportion of couple families in inner Brisbane with children is only around one third that of Brisbane as a whole; The number of flats, units and apartments doubled in the 10 years to 2006 and represents nearly two thirds of all dwellings; Renting is by far the most common dwelling tenure type, accounting for half of all dwellings. Rents are also significantly higher than the rest of the City; and In the five years to 2006, inner Brisbane gained a net population increase of over 37,000 people from migration and of this net gain, more than half was in the 15-29 years age category.

The projected demographics show the following:   The spatial pattern of growth in the study area is expected to be concentrated in a North- South corridor focusing on the following SLAs – Lutwyche, Albion, Bowen Hills, Newstead, Fortitude Valley, the City, Milton, South Brisbane, West End, Dutton Park and Woolloongabba. The number of 65-84 year olds is forecast to increase by 15,174 between 2006 and 2031 from 7.87% of the population to 10.91% of the population. This is an increase of 78.26% on the current population of this age group in the plan area.
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 

The number of school aged children will increase by 7,141 from 18,382 (2006) to 25,523 (2031). This is an increase of 38.85%. Indications are that the plan area will take about 50% of the growth in 5-14 year olds Citywide. Youth and young adults (15-24yrs) are forecast to increase by 10,480 (20.39%). This population cohort will decrease from 20.88% of the population at 2006 to 19.53% of the population 2031. According to the PIFU 2008 median series, this decline will be greater Citywide, showing a decline from 16.5% of the population to 14% of the population in 2031.

It is important to note that Brisbane’s inner city performs a capital city function for the region and State. Therefore it is important to consider population forecasts, but also projections of the numbers of people travelling to the study area to access services and facilities. The National Institute of Economic Industry Research forecasts show a possible doubling of jobs within the plan area. The demographic and worker projections for the study area up until 2031 have implications for the study area. Demographic projects show that:   Residential and employment growth forecasts present a challenge for the future planning and provision of social infrastructure in well located areas. Care must be taken when interpreting demographic forecasts, due to PIFU’s policy settings being based on a much higher proportion of detached dwellings than are likely to occur in the Plausible City. A shift in dwelling types is likely to affect the area’s capacity to cater for families with children and the ageing. A diverse choice in housing generally correlates with the demographic diversity of an area. The transition from detached to attached dwellings, documented in the Liveable Strategy, will present a challenge for the City to retain families with children. Considering the forecast number of families with children and the employment forecast, access to childcare will become an emerging need within the plan area. Youth and young adults will be drawn to the City heart, making the provision of affordable accommodation around knowledge hubs necessary to accommodate this age cohort. The corridor of disadvantage identified in the study area is and will continue to be gentrified as population growth occurs. The challenge will be to maintain affordable housing options so that low income residents are not displaced from the advantages that the inner city provides and opportunities associated with growth. If policies and initiatives are not put in place, the risk is that the issues of disadvantage are simply moved to different locations in the city where the transport cost is greater for clients.

   

7.1.3 Social and Affordable Housing Summary
Housing affordability is a key factor in maintaining a socially diverse community. The private market can only go so far to providing affordable housing. When the market fails in providing housing for those on low incomes, Governments step in to provide social and affordable housing. Definitions for social and affordable housing vary. For the purpose of this piece of work, ‘affordable housing’ has been defined as housing for those on or below the median income, where rent or purchase equates to 30% or less of gross household income. Social Housing has been defined as housing for those registered on the One Social Housing list, provided at a percentage of the tenant’s income. Investment, regulatory and incentive based mechanisms contribute to the provision of social and affordable housing. Innovative partnerships such as the Brisbane Housing Company, where Government investment is managed under a business model, can provide efficiencies for Government and generate revenue to further subsidise social and affordable housing provision. Incentives are commonly established and financed by different levels of Government to encourage supply by the private market and can be in the form of financial incentives or non specific built form incentives. Regulatory models are implemented by Governments, by bringing in policies and regulations making it compulsory for developers to provide a certain amount of social or affordable housing. Current and future challenges to delivery:    Sustained commitment from Governments. All the delivery models for social and affordable housing are Government-led policy responses. Some encourage the provision of social and affordable housing by the private and not–for-profit sectors; however, they all require commitment to policy from Governments. Finance approval can affect the potential to deliver. Projects seeking funding from banks are assessed under normal investment lending criteria. Flat rate incentives that take no account of land values (National Rental Affordability Scheme). This can lead to projects being pushed to middle and outer ring suburbs to be viable and can have negative implications for tenants who may be better off closer to particular services.
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  

Discounted market rent may be become unaffordable. The increase in market rents may lead to housing stock provided falling outside the parameters of what is affordable because the housing is provided at a discounted market rate. Regulatory tools in particular areas of the City can discourage development in those areas (Urban Land Development Authority). Where mandatory contributions apply to some areas of the City and not others it can make those areas and projects less viable and therefore less attractive to the market. Social and affordable housing projects are subject to the same fees and costs as commercial providers, placing an added burden on providers. Brisbane City Council’s Affordable Housing Incentives Scheme provides assistance in this area, although additional initiatives should be explored.

7.1.4 Determining Future Social Infrastructure Needs 7.1.4.1 Planned
The Brisbane City Council Facilities Network Plan is in development and will identify the current facilities needs for the City. This is informing the draft Priority Infrastructure Plan. These identified needs are based on the existing capacity within the planning scheme.

7.1.4.2 Plausible
The Inclusive City Strategy will not provide detailed needs assessment for social infrastructure for the plan area. Council will undertake a review of the Priority Infrastructure Plan next year and will conduct a detailed needs assessment of the high growth scenario explore in the River City Blueprint. As a rough indication of emerging social infrastructure need within the plan area, the PIFU population forecasts and the Social Infrastructure Guideline from the Department of Infrastructure have been used to get an indication of facility needs under the plausible scenario. Figure 28: Community and Social Infrastructure Needs Analysis
2031 RCBP Study Area – 316,000 people Standards of Provision – Social Infrastructure Guideline no. 5
19 Secondary schools

Current Provision 2006

Emerging Areas of Need
Green

10 State Secondary Schools 11 Independent Secondary Schools 8 Catholic Secondary Schools 33 State Primary Schools 8 Independent Primary Schools 23 Catholic Primary Schools 2 Special Schools 8 Branch Libraries 23 Kindergartens 98 Childcare Centres 16 Community Centres/ Multi-purpose Halls 14 Major performing arts centres and 10 community performance venues 5 Workshop spaces

52 Primary Schools

Green*

11 to 21 Branch Libraries 32 to 42 Kindergartens 40 to 79 Childcare Centres 32 to 53 Community Centres/ Multi-purpose Halls 6 to 11 performing arts centres and workshop spaces

Orange Orange Orange* Red Orange

The RCB Plan Area has capacity to meet the need (green) The RCB Plan Area is tracking well to meet the need (orange) The RCB Plan Area is falling behind in meeting the need (red) *This rough scan of need is based only on residential need and does not factor in the requirements of visitors, students and workers. This is why childcare has been highlighted as an emerging need even though the numbers do not show this.

7.1.5 Strategic Community Development Plan
The Strategic Community Development Plan is made up of a Social Policy Report, Human Services Sector Analysis and Implementation Plan.

7.1.5.1 Social Policy Report
The report studied several cities that rank highly on indices of a successful world city and have explicit social inclusion strategies. These are Auckland, Barcelona, Vancouver, Melbourne and Sydney. Social inclusion strategies included targets and indicators and collaborative mechanisms to drive implementation. While many of these cities are increasing their economic performance, they are regressing in important indicators of social
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inclusion, such as the concentration of wealth and poor housing affordability. A social inclusion strategy that includes targets and indicators allows cities to focus and debate what kind of community they want to become. Recommended indicators include housing affordability, income, place of birth, age and household structure. As part of the Social Policy Review, a scan of innovative projects was conducted. The aim was to identify strategic projects in high density communities that delivered socially inclusive outcomes. These case studies are collated in Volume 3 of the Social Policy Review. Examples of initiatives include:     A school in Luton, UK, that has used some of its land to provide affordable housing with income from development (and other sources) to provide a learning, sport and recreation facility accessible to the whole community. A community-operated service and enterprise hub in Oakland, USA, that is part of a TOD urban renewal program, providing employment and support services to the area. A high rise mixed-use social and private housing, community and recreational tower in Vancouver, Canada. The facility was provided in a partnership between private, public and community sectors Child friendly city initiatives in the UK creating ‘home zones’ that prioritise children, youth and families using the public realm.

7.1.5.2 Findings
 The inner ring of the City is the State Capital providing employment, social services, education, recreation and amenity for people across the city including disadvantaged communities and individuals. Some social services (especially supported accommodation) are stretched and cannot always provide the services required. Services and employment need to remain close to public transport to ensure that they can remain accessible to people outside the inner ring. State Planning Legislation specifies that local governments can only impose infrastructure charges to purchase land for community purposes. As Brisbane moves toward higher density built form and land values increase, this limits the effectiveness that infrastructure charges can play in the delivery of social infrastructure. Funding social infrastructure will continue to be a challenge within the plan area.

 

7.1.5.3 Human Services Sector Analysis
It is acknowledged that the human services sector and non-profit sector plays a vital role in meeting social inclusion goals and addressing social disadvantage and social exclusion. The Human Services Sector Analysis has focused on examining a range of opportunities for both the State Government and Brisbane City Council to support and facilitate human service provision in the River City Blueprint subject area. Human service organisations provide services in the following priority funding areas - homelessness, community support and family support. Other service needs, multicultural/CALD, older people and youth justice are less-well serviced. These figures provide indications of funding priority as it responds to community needs. Services are funded in accordance with a needs and evidence based framework prioritised by the State and Federal Government. Given the demographic projections and analysis, particularly the ageing population, youth transition to employment and training, and the need for ongoing migration, these areas may warrant future increases in funding.

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Figure 28 Number of service organisations funded by the Department of Communities (prior to State Government restructure)

There are service concentrations in Brisbane CBD, Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill, New Farm, Milton, South Brisbane and West End (Figure 29). Human services are clustered in these locations because a) they are centrally located and accessible for their clients and b) they have been able to find accommodation they can afford.

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Figure 29 Number of organisations and services funded by the Department of Communities by location (prior to State Government restructure)

7.1.5.4 Findings
 Human service providers need locations where they can maximise access for clients either through access to affordable transport or physical proximity, while peak bodies require central locations which provided access to decision makers, other service organisations and government. Community objection against high-need clients and services has increased. New residents have complained about the presence of some services and their clients e.g. Brisbane Youth Service. Consideration needs to be given to the impact of growth and urban renewal on disadvantaged groups within and outside of the study area and their ability to access services. Large human service organisations own and develop their assets, presenting opportunities for those projects to meet social outcomes and strengthen the economic base of the not for profit sector.
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River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010 Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy

Not-for-profit organisations have difficulties raising capital for investment in property and community assets

7.2 Community Attitudes
The River City Blueprint team has been conducting community engagement for the past 3 months in key public locations around Brisbane. The Your Bright Ideas Stands were staffed by facilitators who ran a visioning activity and shared information with more than 1600 passers-by and a number of booked peer group sessions. About one third of the comments made by the public on the Your Bright Idea stands were in relation to ‘community’, this broad heading covered aspirations for facilities, programming and place making. Below is a ‘word cloud’ made from all of the text responses to the ‘community’ topic. Whilst a more in-depth analysis of this information is currently underway, just from scanning the words below it is possible to see the link between ‘community’ and places in the City that have traditionally been hubs for facilities, services and programming such as the Valley and West End. The ‘community’ topic also merges with ‘entertainment’ as participants expressed a desire for a seamless connection between community facilities and human services such as childcare, youth and senior facilities and community meeting rooms with commercial, retail and entertainment uses. Figure 30 Word Cloud

7.3 Key Strategic Issues
7.3.1 Families with children and ageing in place
The demographic forecasts show strong growth in school-aged children and seniors over 65. The PIFU projections are based on assumptions that do not fully account for the shift from detached dwellings to attached dwellings, therefore this trend may not be as strong as the forecasts indicate. The demographic forecasts pose the question, ‘what kind of community is envisioned for the plan area in 2031?’ If the vision is for an inclusive inner city catering for the needs of people at different stages of their life, policy will be required to ensure provision of accessible housing, facilities and services to encourage age diversity within the inner city.

7.3.2 Social and Affordable Housing
The need for maintaining and increasing social and affordable housing within the plan area has already been acknowledged by the State Government with the establishment of the Urban Land Development Authority. Brisbane City Council have taken an incentive approach to encourage the delivery of social and affordable housing. The Council has no legislative power to mandate provision.
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The challenges facing the delivery of social and affordable housing into the future, as land values and rents rise, are significant. There is no one preferred delivery model, this issue requires a range of responses from all levels of Government. A range of models including incentives, rebates, design, financing and regulation should be explored to ensure additional affordable housing is provided in the plan area.

7.3.3 Corridor of Community Services
The Human Services Sector Analysis shows the community service clusters within the plan area. These clusters also align with the north / south transport corridor and whilst some of the services need to be flexible to move to where their clients are, others provide a State and City-wide function and need to be accessible to clients on major transport routes. As urban renewal occurs along the transport routes, services are facing pressure due to rising rents. The State Government funding for services includes rental support, however as rents increase more quickly in the most accessible locations, not all of these services will be able to afford to stay in their current location. Over the long term it may be cheaper and may deliver better social outcomes to ensure space for community service hubs along transport corridors. An example is the Green Square development delivered by Brisbane City Council that will provide floor area for a range of human service organisations.

7.3.4 Governance
Successful international cities pursue planning, policy and programs across the dimensions of economic, social, cultural, political and environmental arenas. They also instigate inter-governmental and cross-sectoral initiatives as part of a comprehensive approach. A key issue within the plan area is that the prime nodes community facility demonstration projects and community service hubs are under the jurisdiction of the Urban Land Development Authority. The legislative powers of the ULDA combined with Brisbane City Council’s long term facilities network planning and community development capacity is a unique opportunity.

7.3.5 Funding for social infrastructure
Social infrastructure is defined as community facilities, services and networks which help individuals, families, groups and communities meet their social needs, maximise their potential for development, and enhance community wellbeing. The provision of social infrastructure involves all levels of government, the private sector and the not for profit sector. Council’s power to charge for social infrastructure through infrastructure charges is very limited, by what it can charge for and the amount it can charge through the Priority Infrastructure Plan (PIP). The PIP is currently being drafted and will include a range of recommendations for social infrastructure provision within the study area, such as sport, cultural and recreational facilities. Funding these community facilities will continue to be a challenge for the plan area. Refer to Section 6 to view a basic need analysis of the PIFU population projections under the Social Infrastructure Planning Guideline 2009.

7.3.6 New World City Cultural Facilities Opportunities
Projects such as the Gallery of Modern Art and The Powerhouse put Brisbane on the international cultural map and meet the needs of local residents. These projects provide catalyst infrastructure that improves liveability and attracts investment from the private sector. To continue to move towards being a new world city, Brisbane must provide the necessary amenity for high density living, State and Council will need to continue to invest in recreational and cultural infrastructure. It is important that key sites are identified before local planning is completed to take full advantage of large post industrial sites.

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8 Prosperous City
8.1 Background Research
8.1.1 Recent trends
In addition to experiencing dramatic population growth, the South East Queensland region and Brisbane in particular have experienced significant economic growth. Between 2001 and 2006, the number of jobs in the South East Queensland (SEQ) Region grew by more than 186,000. Sixty per cent (112,000) of these jobs were located in metropolitan Brisbane. The River City Blueprint study area and in particular, the Brisbane CBD represents a major employment activity centre for the region. In 2006, almost one quarter (24 per cent) of all employment in the South East Queensland region was located in the River City Blueprint study area. Because of the strong population growth experienced throughout the region in recent years, much of the regional employment growth has been in population-serving industries such as retail and construction. In contrast, the River City Blueprint study area has seen substantial growth in advanced business services (technical and professional services provided to other businesses) and high value industries, both of which are major exporters of services to other regions and other countries. As significant exporters, these sectors are the major drivers of economic prosperity for the SEQ region as a whole. The River City Blueprint Study Area embraces a number of distinct precincts: educational, cultural, retail, health, legal and business/commercial services. The CBD is the core activity node for regional and nationally prominent corporate HQs and for a high concentration of financial and professional services within both the study area and the region. This activity dominates both employment and business activity. The CBD function is supported by a network of surrounding areas in the inner suburbs including Milton, Toowong, South Brisbane and Fortitude Valley. These ‘spill-over’ areas are emerging as important commercial office markets in their own right: offering A-grade commercial accommodation, as well as a wider variety of built form than the CBD. The surrounding suburbs have a diversity of accommodation types, thus also offering opportunities for smaller creative and knowledge-intensive businesses which prefer cheaper, non-standard forms of accommodation (eg. conversion of older buildings). Additionally, the spill-over areas serve as business incubators, providing lower-cost accommodation for emerging commercial enterprises. The high costs and lack of availability of commercial accommodation within the Brisbane CBD just prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) delayed the expansion plans of businesses in the CBD, limited their capacity to increase employment and deterred new businesses from other regions and cities from locating in Brisbane. Through the peak periods of 2005-2008, vacancy rates were well below healthy levels, hovering below one per cent and falling to 0. Since then, the combined economic slowdown caused by the GFC and a number of substantial additions to the office stock (which were in train prior to the GFC), have raised the vacancy rate to over 11 per cent, although the supply of premium accommodation remains low at 4.8%. Given the relatively light impacts of the GFC in Australia and the strong long-term prospects for the Brisbane economy, this vacancy rate is expected to return to the levels experienced in the earlier boom period over the next 12-18 months. Other key activity nodes in the Study Area are the specialised precincts representing major research and educational activities, specifically, the University of Queensland at St. Lucia and the combination of hospitals/research institutes at Herston. These research precincts have played a major role in the changes to the River City Blueprint Study Area in recent years. Brisbane has developed competitive advantages in the research fields which have shaped the profile of much recent specialised investment. Brisbane’s role as a major supporting centre – for research and development as well as business activity, production, advanced information technology and a variety of other services – for the mining and resource industry has played a major role in business growth in recent years. A key strength for Brisbane has been its emergence as a world class centre for specialised medical and life science research. Facilities such as the Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Institute for Molecular Biosciences and Queensland Brain Institute have raised Brisbane’s international profile substantially. Significantly, Brisbane has attracted a major research investment in the form of contributions to the development and construction of the Translational Research Institute. A combination of private philanthropic support for the Translational Research Institute and the wider support from Council and State Government to the development of a research and knowledge corridor connecting St. Lucia and the CBD will benefit the further growth of Brisbane’s global competitiveness in research. Other important functions of the inner city include the cultural and entertainment precincts at South Bank and in the Valley, both of which attract large numbers of interstate and international tourists. Queen Street Mall is also a major retail mall with most national and some major international retailers represented. The Mall is a central gathering point for city workers, students and residents and has one of the highest pedestrian counts of any city mall.
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8.2 Economic Outlook
8.2.1 Economic trends
Throughout the world, cities have emerged as the drivers of national competitiveness and prosperity. In modern economies, cities represent the highest concentration of economic activity and account for more than threequarters of total national economic output. Cities also house most of the nation’s population and provide most of the jobs. The capacity of cities to do this is underpinned by the ability to utilise infrastructure efficiently and capture scale economies by achieving a certain critical mass in the generation of goods and services. As labour costs have increased, the economic structure of advanced economies has shifted in the direction of high value, knowledge intensive outputs created by a pool of highly skilled workers using advanced technologies. This shift has changed the location factors for knowledge intensive businesses to seek highly connected locations which offer easy and cheap access to markets, particularly to global and regional markets. Access to a talented workforce, communications networks and efficient reliable transport are the major drivers sought by modern knowledge intensive businesses. The ability of cities and regions to attract businesses and investment, as well as the ability for local businesses to grow and develop, is linked to a wide variety of factors including infrastructure, opportunities for clustering and specialisation, and access to world leading research and technology. At the same time, the human factor in cities is critical to a successful economy as businesses try to accommodate the lifestyle preferences of the talented workers that they are increasingly reliant on for their success. Australian cities are also the engines for national economic growth (Brisbane generates almost half of total State economic output). While the resource sector also generates a significant share of the State economy, its global competitiveness is underpinned by the high value services, including administrative, legal, financial and research and technology services, which are delivered by businesses in Brisbane. Thus the resource sector and the city are interdependent in contributing to the prosperity achieved for the State economy from resource exports. But Brisbane’s economy is also highly diversified with a wide range of other business and activities that are contributing to Brisbane’s success as a global trading economy. In Australia, knowledge intensive services exports are now the second largest exporting sector after coal. Almost all knowledge intensive exports are produced in urban areas and their recently acknowledged contribution to Australia’s exports is an acknowledgement of the rising importance of cities in delivering national prosperity. Brisbane is Queensland’s largest exporter of knowledge-intensive services. Major exporting sectors from Brisbane include professional services (architecture, finance, legal, engineering), education services, research, advanced manufactured products and health services. The figure below depicts recent trends in industry specialisation in inner Brisbane. The size of the coloured circles represents the size of each industry in the inner city in terms of employment. The industry specialisation index is a measure of the growth of importance of each industry within the inner city in comparison with its importance in Brisbane as a whole over the 2001-2006 period. As can be seen from the figure, the three largest employing sectors in inner Brisbane are Business Services, Health and Community, and Government. Their positioning near the top of the chart indicates that they have also been growing faster in inner Brisbane than in Brisbane as a whole. Other faster growing industries in inner Brisbane include Finance and Insurance, Mining (this is very small and relates to the location of mining head offices in the city) and Communication Services.

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Figure 31 Industry specialisation in the River City Blueprint study area
Industry Specialisation in Inner Brisbane 2001-2006
2.20 2.00
Finance and Insurance Mining Government Administration and Defence

1.80
Communication Services

1.60 Industry Specilisation 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants Cultural and Recreation Transport and Storage Wholesale Trade Personal / Other Services Education Business Services (incl Property) Health and Community Services

Construction

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

0.20 0.00 -5.00%

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Share of Growth 2001-2006

Source: Census of Population and Housing 2006, Australian Bureau of Statistics

The increasing importance of the Business Services activities in the city centre, including specialist legal, financial, IT and technical consultancy services, and the knowledge-workers who make these industries globally competitive, will play a major role in the successful development of the River City Blueprint Study Area. Highly skilled and consequently highly mobile, knowledge workers contribute significantly to the prosperity of the local economy, both directly through their capacity to produce exportable products and services and indirectly through the cascading effect of their increasing wealth and capacity to purchase goods and services in the local economy. Some industry sectors are notable for their high export values. For knowledge-based services, this is correlated with significant employment of highly skilled workers. Other industries such as Manufacturing employ smaller numbers of workers relative to their export contribution. The chart below shows estimated export growth for each industry sector in Brisbane’s Inner City between 2006 and 2031. As can be seen, Business Services accounts for the largest share of current export value from inner Brisbane and will also account for the largest value of growth, from just over $3 billion today to over $7 billion by 2031. As expected, manufacturing is indicating a decline share of growth as more manufacturing activities move out of the inner city area to more appropriate locations. Government, Finance and Health Services are the next most significant exporting sectors and are expected to grow. For both Government and Health, exports relate to central administrative services and high level tertiary services provided to residents throughout Queensland. High population growth in SEQ is a major driver of growth of Government and Health Services. Decisions by Government to move certain services out of Brisbane may reduce the levels of employment and export from these areas in future years, but they will still remain the most important central hubs for these services in the State.

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Figure 32 Estimated export value by sector, River City Blueprint study area
Inner Brisbane Exports

7000

6000

Exports ($ millions)

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 Business Services (incl Property) Personal Services Construction Hospitality Manufacturing Communication Agriculture Education Finance Cultural & Recreational Government Wholesale Transport Health & Community Utilities Mining Retail

2006

2031 Forecast

Source: NIEIR Forecasts of Employment and Economic Activity 2009 edition

Figure 33 Estimated employment, study area, Brisbane City and South East Queensland 2006 and 2031
2,500

2,000

('000 jobs)

1,500

1,000

500

0 River City Blueprint study area Brisbane (C) South East Queensland

2006

2031

Source: NIEIR Forecasts of Employment and Economic Activity 2009 edition

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8.2.2 Employment forecasts
At the SEQ level, the number of jobs is forecast to increase by 815,000 jobs between 2006 and 2031 to reach a total of 2.2 million by 2031 (NIEIR). Brisbane LGA employment is expected to increase from 699,000 to 1.06 million jobs (an additional 367,000 jobs) between 2006 and 2031. The number of jobs in the River City Blueprint study area is estimated to increase from 337,000 to 565,000 jobs (an additional 218,000 jobs) between 2006 and 2031 (NIEIR). These additional jobs represent about 62 percent of the forecast citywide jobs growth and are anticipated to be concentrated in the inner city.

8.3 Brisbane’s Drivers of Economic Growth
Over the past two decades, the drivers of Brisbane’s economic growth have been changing. Initially, rapid demand for more services, construction and products was driven by the rapidly growing population of South East Queensland, mainly through interstate migration and more recently through increased overseas migration. However, the Brisbane economy has also been responsive to other global drivers of demand, including rising global affluence bringing more tourists, rising global demand for education services, the mining and resource boom and the rapid expansion of global economic networks and communications systems supporting the expansion of intangible, knowledge intensive exports. These main growth areas are listed below.

8.3.1 Growth to service a growing regional population
With strong population growth forecast for Brisbane and the rest of the South East Queensland region, Brisbane’s function as a capital city is expected to continue to offer opportunities for economic growth. Brisbane offers major service hubs, including hospitals, universities (which also have other functions), government accommodation and logistics services which make use of the City’s infrastructure to offer domestic and international services and products. In particular, the River City Blueprint study area includes a large concentration of education, health, community and government services, with a catchment expected to experience substantial population growth. This population growth will create opportunities for employment in these sectors as businesses expand to meet growing demand. Providing excellent health and education services is also a pre-condition for attracting talented workers out of a global skills pool.

8.3.2 Growth to provide advanced services to the resource sector
While the resources driving the mining and gas booms currently underway in Queensland are not located in Brisbane itself, the City and particularly the study area hosts a variety of services which are integral to the functioning of the mining industry. From direct mining support services such as environmental impact assessments to business management and practice to the specialised manufacturing and technologies required, Brisbane is ideally positioned to offer the high-value services and products to the mining industry that can be most efficiently and competitively delivered within a concentrated urban economy. Concentration and proximity to other businesses and access to the largest possible pool of talented workers are the key locational factors that require such services to be located within Brisbane. Brisbane’s role as the capital city of Queensland is also important in this context as the regulatory environment governing the activities of regional industries is primarily controlled by the State.

8.3.3 Growth in the knowledge economy
Capitalising on Brisbane’s distinct competitive advantage in a selection of fields (including the resource sector), Brisbane holds a range of facilities, almost entirely accommodated within the River City Blueprint study area, which are directly linked to research, development and innovation, the cornerstones of the knowledge economy. In addition to the training capacity of the River City Blueprint’s hospitals and universities, which is integral to the availability of a high-skilled workforce, the study area also hosts world class research facilities and infrastructure. If appropriately supported, the research, development and innovation capacity of the city in industries such as medical research and life sciences could be greatly enhanced, and offer a large number of high value jobs. Initial steps in developing the city’s research sector in these industries are already underway, with projects such as the Pharmacy Australia Centre for Excellence completed early 2010, and the Translational Research Institute under construction in mid-2010 demonstrating significant commitment to growing this sector. Furthermore, a combination of lifestyle benefits, cutting edge research facilities and tax benefits mean that Australia is well-positioned to develop as a major centre for research and development. In terms of costcompetitiveness, Australian cities already outperform the largest cities in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and France as a location for research and development facilities.

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8.4 Key economic issues for Brisbane
8.4.1 To be competitive, the inner city economy must grow
Economic growth is integral to the continued prosperity of the city. The top performing global cities in the developed world, with similar populations compared to the forecast population for Brisbane in 2031, typically employ around 250,000 workers in their CBDs (inner core areas). The ability to compete internationally, attract investment and generate exports improves as the employment density of the inner city increases. Global research on urban economies has found significantly higher productivity growth in cities which achieve high employment densities. High productivity growth drives international competitiveness, higher incomes and a higher standard of living for residents. It is through the promotion of the inner city economy that Brisbane can sustain prosperity in future years. There are a number of key strategic issues which must be addressed to support the prosperity of the River City into the future. These include:  Enabling further concentration and expansion of economy activity in the inner city – the continued growth of CBD-like activities is vital to Brisbane’s long-term success. CBD type accommodation needs to be expanded beyond the current capacity of the existing CBD. This means that there needs to be greater accommodation of economic activity within the River City Blueprint study area. Not all of it will be accommodated suitably within office towers and attention needs to be drawn to the need to allow for a diversity of requirements and to recognise the emergence of clusters of economic activity. However, care needs to be taken in how to balance this requirement with residential densification, which has the tendency to convert economic centres into population serving rather than exporting activities. Connection and mobility – the connection between the economic activity nodes within the study area will be vital to the future of the Inner City. Connections will need to include physical linkages to productive precincts outside the Inner City, and telecommunications linkages to the rest of the world. Conversely, the ease of movement within the Inner City, in particular between nodes of economic activity, must be increased (a 15 minute journey time by foot or by frequent reliable public transport is an accepted standard). Increasing the diversity of the inner city economy – As the main employment node for the region, the River City Blueprint study area hosts areas with a variety of different characters and function. Preserving the differing character of employment areas will be vital to the continued prosperity of the region, allowing for the retention of areas for business incubation, trendy and unconventional commercial environments, some high value light industry (eg. health related) or cultural, retail and tourist precincts. The economic strategy must recognise the different business needs that can be met in different parts of the River City Area. Development of export capacity – knowledge exports – As knowledge exports are already identified as one of the key methods for bringing wealth into the Brisbane economy, the growth of exporting businesses and their needs must be recognised and supported as a priority. This may mean facilitating approvals for developments which propose to accommodate these sorts of businesses. Good governance – creating a positive environment in which to do business is vital to the long term support of the Brisbane economy. Engagement and representation of the business community is vital to creating a climate conducive to long term investment attraction, as is regulatory efficiency. A responsive planning system will be required to help deliver a built form which integrates the needs of the business community with those of the residential community.

8.5 Planning Framework Overview
8.5.1 Regional Planning Framework
The South East Queensland Regional Plan 2009-2031 (the Regional Plan) is the pre-eminent plan for the region and takes precedence over all other policy and statutory planning instruments. The Regional Plan provides a vision for the region together with a number of strategic directions including accommodating future residential and employment growth, building a series of strong, identifiable communities and providing infrastructure and services. Essentially, the Regional Plan promotes a more compact urban form and in economic terms, encourages employment growth within ‘activity centres’ and specialised employment precincts. Desired regional outcome 9 – Employment Location (DRO 9) provides the desired regional policy outcomes from an economic perspective. Amongst other matters, DRO 9 recognises that to continue economic growth and development there must be sufficient land for economic use and adequate infrastructure and services. DRO 9
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also supports the creation of knowledge centres based on educational, scientific and technological institutions and supporting communities with high levels of employment self-containment.

8.5.2 Plans and Policies 8.5.2.1 Brisbane Economic Development Plan
The goal of the Brisbane Economic Development Plan is to enhance Brisbane’s capacity to support long term economic growth. The Plan advances these policies through six strategies: marketing the city, investment and jobs attraction, infrastructure development, productive precincts, workforce availability and capability and development of the export market.

8.5.2.2 Brisbane Long Term Infrastructure Plan
First published in 2007, the Brisbane Long Term Infrastructure Plan is Council's policy on long-term infrastructure planning for the city. The plan outlines Council's strategic approach to infrastructure planning to meet forecast population and employment growth over the next 20 years. Long-term strategic plans for transport, water, energy, telecommunications, social and green space infrastructure are addressed in the Plan. Council is currently working on an update of the Plan through to 2031.

8.5.3 Business Community Attitudes
Research by Brisbane City Council has found that high-value, service exporting businesses require a CBD location and are prepared to pay the higher costs to locate in the city centre. Some businesses accept a near central location provided it offers ready access to the CBD. This need is driven by a range of factors – the ability to access other businesses, the ability to offer a desirable environment to attract staff and access to a range of specialised services and facilities offered within the CBD, including legal and financial and technical services. Transport support, both within the CBD and its surrounds, and connection between their sites and other activity networks were highlighted as major issues for businesses who had been able to locate within the CBD. The ability to access staff and other businesses from a wider catchment (particularly through connections to the industrial precincts such as Australia TradeCoast) were key issues for businesses. In light of the positive economic conditions experienced by many Brisbane businesses in recent years, a large number were looking to expand to new sites. The same considerations and issues that affected them in their current sites were key to their consideration of new sites: access to the CBD and public transport were identified as key considerations.

8.5.4 Key Strategic Issues
Brisbane’s long term prosperity will be achieved by ensuring that the city provides an economic environment which supports the future growth and expansion of competitive businesses and industries which export to other markets. Underpinning this is the need to invest in the appropriate infrastructure and maintain the capacity of the city to provide accessible, well connected locations for businesses to interact with each other and with their markets and have access to a diverse pool of talented workers. Promoting the emergence and growth of innovative new businesses and industries is essential to ensure a vibrant and competitive economy.

8.5.4.1 Enabling further concentration and expansion of economic activity in the inner city
Operating from a globally competitive location is a key success factor for businesses. One simple attribute of global cities is that they contain inner city economies which have sufficient diversity and size to support a wide range of activities. To expand the range of activities and increase the size of the inner city economy, the Brisbane CBD needs to be able to grow. For inner Brisbane businesses to achieve global competitiveness, it is important that the inner city area:     Provides sufficient and appropriate accommodation for businesses to continue to grow in places where they are already concentrated and for future businesses to establish within the CBD and inner fringe areas Provides opportunities for specialist businesses to locate near strategic partners such as research institutes Maximises accessibility at minimal cost and time through efficient private, public and active transport networks enabling businesses to interact with each other and ensuring workers can access places of work within a reasonable travel time Achieves a ‘seamless economy’ within the inner area, including ubiquitous access to high speed broadband.
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Ultimately, the capacity for the existing CBD is limited by geographic and regulatory barriers. To further develop the city as a competitive centre, there will need to be room to grow and expand the capacity for commercial accommodation.

8.5.4.2 Connection and Mobility
There are two scales of connection and mobility which must both be addressed in order to secure the prosperity of the River City Blueprint study area – the internal and the external.   Internal connectivity includes the need for connection between nodes and precincts within the study area, and the ability to move easily and rapidly between them, as well as addressing the perceived barriers which can inhibit movement. External mobility, by contrast, includes similar issues of connectivity, between the River City Blueprint study area and the greater city and region (particularly connections to productive precincts such as the Australia TradeCoast). These connections should not be limited to transport connectivity, but must also include telecommunications – technology such as broadband and fibre-optic line is essential to supporting the ability of businesses to interact and grow, particularly in knowledge-intensive industries.

8.5.4.3 Diversity of the inner city economy
The economy of the River City Blueprint study area is part of a larger integrated whole, and it serves important functions within that whole. While the CBD and style of accommodation evident within the CBD suits many firms, other precincts within the River City Blueprint study area offer different styles of accommodation that are more desirable to certain knowledge workers. Areas which offer fashionable or unconventional office accommodation serve as vital hubs for the more creative knowledge industries, such as architecture. In contrast, other areas of older office stock serve as business incubators, offering cheaper accommodation to allow businesses to grow and develop without the burden of the high accommodation costs of the CBD. In addition, there is a range of economic uses in the River City Blueprint study area which form significant parts of the city economy. Precincts within the inner city host tourist, retail and cultural activities which contribute significantly to quality of life in the city – a factor that is increasingly important in knowledge industries, where high-skilled staff are highly mobile.

8.5.4.4 Development of Export Capacity - Knowledge Exports
Growing Brisbane’s capacity, engagement and strengths in knowledge industries will be vital to the long term prosperity of Brisbane. The capacity of knowledge industries to bring extra wealth into the Brisbane economy will underwrite much of the growth in value of the Brisbane economy in the future. There is a number of key issues which need to be recognised and addressed to support development in the knowledge industry:    Health Education Mining services

These are industries which have shown a particular tendency to cluster around certain activity centres, such as a hospital or a university. This clustering allows for substantial increases in productivity, improving the efficiency of the networks and helping to raise the profile of the city. Infrastructure and regulatory support for the development of knowledge-exports will incorporate a variety of aspects; however key amongst these will be increasing the connectivity, as discussed in a previous point. The role of high-speed internet access in growing businesses and enabling the growth to an exporting business, rather than simply servicing local markets is substantial.

8.5.4.5 Good Governance
Creating a positive and supportive regulatory environment within which businesses may do business is vital. A clear program of engagement with and representation for the business community is integral to advancing and promoting Brisbane as a key destination for investment. The promotion of Brisbane’s strengths is an integral cornerstone to the development of Brisbane as a business location. Internally, the River City Blueprint study area needs to operate under an efficient regulatory environment. There needs to be a responsive planning system which enables the market to deliver upon the needs of businesses while preserving and advancing an appropriate structure and controls for development and built form within the city. The regulatory environment must also efficiently deliver the infrastructure required to support economic growth in a timely fashion – without infrastructure support, growth will not occur.

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9 Connected City
9.1 Background Research
9.1.1 Public Transport Task 9.1.1.1 Lord Mayor’s Mass Transit Investigation
Brisbane City Council released the Mass Transit Investigation report in 2007. The report developed and refined concepts presented in the City Centre Master Plan and proposed the implementation of bus rapid transit (in preference to light rail) in the inner city on three routes including:    West End to Newstead (the first CityGlider route between West End and Teneriffe Ferry stations was successfully launched in mid 2010) Hamilton to Woolloongabba (proposed 2016) Inner city orbital linking Spring Hill, Roma Street and a proposed bridge at Kangaroo Point from (proposed 2010)

The report also recommended   Future extension from Newstead to Bulimba via a green bridge (2026) Investigation into future provision of metro rail services through the Central Business District.

9.1.1.2 Integrated Transport and Land Use Inner City Study
The intent of the Integrated Transport and Land use Inner City Study (ITALICS) is to provide a holistic and integrated analysis of the range of targeted transport and land use studies undertaken by the Queensland Government and Brisbane City Council for inner city Brisbane. Existing studies and projects referenced include the Inner City Rail Capacity Study, Bus Access Capacity Inner City Study, Rail Assessment of Capacity Alternatives, Western Brisbane Transport Network Investigation, Australia Trade Coast Transport Study, SEQ Principal Cycle Network Plan, Bus Rapid Transit Implementation Strategy, City Centre Master Plan and the contemporary inner city renewal strategies and neighbourhood plans. ITALICS provides a coordinated vision for the strategic development of land use and transport infrastructure planning in inner Brisbane to 2031 with a 50 year horizon for infrastructure provision. The role of the River City Blueprint Connected City Strategy is to deliver strategic, integrated land use and transport planning which brings together both Queensland Government and Council transport planning over the medium and long terms. Integrating these directions will ensure the greatest land use efficiencies are achieved, whilst ensuring mobility and accessibility for all modes.

Inner city Brisbane network transport task
Inner city transport demand is forecast to increase to 2.4 million trips/day by 2031 (up from 900,000 trip/day in 2006). Even with all currently planned public transport infrastructure in place, rail and bus networks are expected to reach their capacity well before 2031 (ITALICS). This excludes the Cross River Rail project. The forecast doubling of business and residential activity in the inner city will see a significant increase in the need for commercial vehicle activity. Consequently there will continue to be strong demand for inner city road based trips that are not contestable by public or active transport. Both the Bus Access Capacity Inner City Study (BACICS) and the Inner City Rail Capacity Study (ICRCS) estimated that by 2026 demand for inner city access by public transport would increase by approximately 200% over 2006 levels. The ICRCS identified rail patronage for the 7.00am-9.00am peak period will increase from 44,000 trips in 2006 to 70,000-80,000 trips in 2016 and 105,000-130,000 trips in 2026. The bus network is forecast to accommodate 97% growth, constrained by increasing congestion on the road network. Despite this, BACICS identifies a doubling of bus passenger journeys to the city centre from 34,000 in 2004 to 68,000 in 2026. This change means 1208 buses would be entering the city centre by 2026 (up from 596 at the time of study). Analysis of the land use scenario identified in ITALICS suggests that by 2031 inner city Brisbane could expect an overall growth in commuter trips during peak times of around 165% across all of the key development areas. This coincides with forecast traffic congestion set to increase by approximately 28% by 2026 on Brisbane’s roads. This is low in comparison to the growth in public transport trips and the travel demand only because the road network will surpass its effective carrying capacity.
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Drivers for change
Inner Brisbane is expected to experience significant intensification of land use activity and development in areas adjacent to the CBD and along the major mass transit corridors. The land use will comprise of both residential and economic uses (commercial / retail). ITALICS identified a high growth (ultimate) scenario in which the inner city accommodated 151,000 dwellings. Given that the area currently accommodates 24,000 dwellings; this would represent a growth of 127,000 dwellings. If a more realistic development take-up rate of 50% to 2031 is assumed, factoring in existing dwellings, an additional 63,500 residential dwellings could be achieved in the inner city. The locations where major change is envisaged under the ITALICS scenarios are Bowen Hills, City, Fortitude Valley, Woolloongabba and Northshore. The land use scenarios discussed in ITALICS were based on workshops undertaken by Queensland Government and attended by Brisbane City Council officers. The scenarios were informed by land use planning under progress and Brisbane Urban Growth Modelling. The current River City Blueprint land use options differ from these proposals, however the general level of growth is consistent, as both the ITALICS work and current ‘plausible city’ scenario respond to the dwelling targets of the South East Queensland Regional Plan and the NIEIR employment projections. It should be noted that although the NIEIR projections were used, these have since been refreshed by Council. Projections of residential and employment growth were undertaken using the Brisbane Urban Growth (BUG) model and compared with the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) employment projects for the study area. The ITALICS further utilised the current Neighbourhood Planning being undertaken by Brisbane City Council.

Figure 34 ITALICS combined land use recommendation Increased demand for overall travel to inner Brisbane through growth will result in competition for the limited supply of road, kerbside and parking space. As the road capacity is limited by number of roads and carrying capacity, even with all currently planned road and public transport infrastructure it is understood all road entries to the inner city and the gateways to the middle ring suburbs are expected to be operating below their planned level of service, most surpassing effective carrying capacity.

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9.1.2 Active Transport 9.1.2.1 A People Oriented Vision for Brisbane (Gehl Architects)
A people oriented vision for Brisbane provides a report on various aspects of public realm and human scale connectivity (walking and cycling) in the River City Blueprint area. Focusing on the city frame area, the report highlights the challenges to making the city truly connected and a place for people, and the principles, mechanisms and recommendations which can be utilised to increase connectivity and liveability on the broader scale, right throughout Queensland. The report is broken into three sections. The Introduction provides an overview of the methodology, positioning the Brisbane CBD against other major capital cities across the world. By identifying the typological city characteristics and the changes to the urban form across time, the distinction between mobility and access is made. The second section, Towards a More Liveable Brisbane, defines urban patterns, connectivity, legibility, the human scale, public realm and city cycling and walking. This section provides goals and recommendations for Brisbane which can be applied throughout Queensland. The final section, Cases, applies the principles, goals and recommendations to two key corridors. These corridors are Bulimba to the University of Queensland, and Woolloongabba to South.

Travel Data
The Gehl report used Census 2006 data for the Brisbane inner city ring statistical area. The data provides a basic breakdown of the mode share within inner Brisbane.

Figure 35 Inner city travel to work mode share (Census 2006) The Gehl report does a basic yet effective comparison across the modal choice in the inner Brisbane area, noting that for a city of its size, Brisbane lacks the full range of necessary and available transport choices, particularly in terms of mass transportation. In places the inner Brisbane distribution network reflects the city’s car-dominated mode share. The current network is highly radially focused and both road and public transport networks are congested in peak demand periods. The report provides examples of capacity data for varying modes across a 3.5 metre wide space in an urban environment during a one-hour period. The figures reflect the ability to capture significant capacity for the inner city through cycling, walking and metro-style public transport, particularly in comparison to a private vehicle. The varying capacity of each of the major modes is outlined below:

Figure 36 Varying capacities of modes of transport Within the Cases section of the report, public life surveys were undertaken to assist in demonstrating practical application of the recommendations. The data collected for the public life surveys included activity patterns, flow distributions throughout the day, age and gender, stationary activities and cycling infrastructure.
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Drivers
The significant road infrastructure has divided and isolated large tracts of valuable inner city land as well as the communities in which they have been built, creating barriers to fine grain connectivity and mobility, and surprisingly, in some instances barriers to the private vehicle for which the infrastructure was built.

Figure 37 Major road infrastructure and the disconnect it creates in the local areas Large infrastructure barriers within the inner city decrease mobility for those who cannot access car-based infrastructure, in particular the young and the elderly. The pedestrian and cycle access routes provided through and around the infrastructure do not always enable personal mobility, especially where the access points are unappealing or unsafe, or provide only a highly circuitous route.

Figure 38 Barriers to small scale movement Increased mobility within the inner city area does not have to be at the expense of communities and the public realm. The report favours public transport, walkability and high quality public realm as three mutually-dependent priorities which, when aligned, form accessible cities and provide alternatives to travel by private car.

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Figure 39 Barriers within the River City Blueprint area creating disconnected districts The disconnection of local districts within inner Brisbane is the result of both man-made infrastructure and naturally occurring topography. Although passable, the barriers constitute a serious hindrance to easy and flexible movement by foot and bicycle. The drivers to develop a comprehensive network of pedestrian and cycling networks remain the same drivers for increased and accessible modes of public transport – inner city residential and employment growth. These same drivers are also the reason for the provision of quality public realm along active and public transport corridors and around major public transport nodes. The sustainability of the urban form and accessible urban activities in light of increased urban employment and residential densities can be achieved through the provision of active transport and public realm opportunities.

9.1.3 Road transport 9.1.3.1 TransApex and Road Action Program
TransApex is a system of bypasses – predominantly tunnels – which will combine to form an inner city ring road. The projects will increase the number of general vehicle lanes crossing the river and fill missing links in the motorway network allowing traffic to bypass the CBD. TransApex consists of:     Clem7 – a 6.8km tolled cross-river two-lane twin-tunnel project linking the Pacific Motorway and Ipswich Rd at Woolloongabba to the Inner City Bypass and Lutwyche Rd at Bowen Hills (with another connection to Shaftson Ave, Kangaroo Point) (opened early 2010) Go Between Bridge – a four lane general traffic toll bridge connecting the Inner City Bypass/ Hale St and Coronation Drive, Milton to Montague Rd, Merivale and Cordelia Sts at South Brisbane (opening mid 2010). This includes free cycling and pedestrian access. Airport Link – tolled tunnel to be delivered by City North Infrastructure connecting Clem7 and the Inner City Bypass to the airport (expected to open mid 2012) Northern Link – a 4.6km tunnel connecting the Western Freeway at Toowong to the Inner City Bypass at Kelvin Grove (to be delivered by 2014)
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East-West Link – proposed dual two-lane tunnel connecting the Pacific Motorway at Buranda and the Western Freeway at Toowong (post 2026).

9.1.3.2 Traffic modelling ‘planned’ and ‘plausible’ city scenarios
Brisbane City Council is currently undertaking transport modelling to support the development of initiatives, subinitiatives and actions of the River City Blueprint. This modelling will examine impacts of Blueprint land use and employment options on the operation of road and public transport networks. The modelling will also provide further details about the impacts on modal choice by bypass road tunnels including northern link, Kingsford Smith Drive upgrade project and east-west link.

9.2 Planning Framework Overview
9.2.1 Regional Planning Framework 9.2.1.1 South East Queensland Regional Plan
The South East Queensland (SEQ) Regional Plan 2009-2031 is the pre-eminent plan for the region and takes precedence over all other policy and statutory planning instruments. The Regional Plan has policies related to the River City Blueprint Connected City Strategy such as:  DRO 1 – The region grows and changes in a sustainable manner – generating prosperity, maintaining and enhancing quality of life, minimising the use of resources, providing high levels of environmental protection, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and becoming resilient to natural hazards including the projected efforts of climate change and oil vulnerability. DRO 8 – A compact urban structure of well-planned communities, supported by a network of accessible and convenient centres and transit corridors linking residential areas to employment locations establishes the context for achieving a consolidated urban settlement pattern. DRO 10 – Plan, coordinate and deliver regional infrastructure and services in a timely manner to support the regional settlement pattern and desired community outcomes. DRO 12 – A connected and accessible region based on an integrated transport system that is planned and managed to support more compact urban growth and efficient travel; connect people, places, goods and services; and promote public transport use, walking and cycling.

  

9.2.1.2 Integrated Regional Transport Plan
The Integrated Regional Transport Plan 1997 is due to be updated and released in mid-2010, entitled ‘Connecting SEQ2031’. This document will outline an updated regional transport plan to support the SEQ Regional Plan.

9.2.2 Local Planning Framework 9.2.2.1 Transport Plan for Brisbane 2008-2026
The Transport Plan for Brisbane 2008-2026 sets out the strategic direction for transport planning for Brisbane. It outlines the critical background information required for an understanding of the transport challenges facing the city and presents transport options. With a planning horizon of 2026, it summarises and assesses the options to meet travel demand in the City through reference documents and by coordination with the findings of Council’s Neighbourhood Planning process. The Transport Plan for Brisbane sets out strategies to address the following six strategic objectives:       quality public transport manage travel demand coordinated transport and land use a safe and efficient road network delivering the good son time to the right place more clean and green personal transport.

The city's economic growth and the lifestyle of its residents depend upon an efficient transport system. As such, the transport plan reflects Council’s plan to balance investment in public transport, walking and cycling with the provision of an efficient road network. In order to respond to congestion on the transport network, the transport plan focuses on 'transport corridors', which are the major arterial routes through the city.
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The plan:        defines the specific transport projects Council will make in an area directs planning work to major road corridors and the roads that feed into them considers how to manage travel demand in those corridors, looking at a range of projects to manage congestion, such as: extra road space more public transport walking and cycling facilities improved signal coordination

Each potential project is subject to:    detailed investigation cost benefit analysis funding availability

Council delivering a number of projects that support the transport plan:        $1.2bn Road Action Program purchasing 500 new 'rigid equivalent' buses over 4 years $100m for walking, cycling and bikeways over 4 years CityCycle (bike hire scheme) bus Rapid Transit System six new CityCats over four years new ferry terminals

9.2.2.2 Brisbane City Plan - Strategic Plan
The Brisbane City Plan is accompanied by a set of strategic maps indicating the strategic road network (identifying higher order roads, their roles and function in the network) and the strategic bikeway network (including major recreational and commuter routes). These maps are included in the figures below. Figure 40 Road hierarchy

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Figure 41 Bikeway Network

9.2.3 Community Attitudes from the ‘Your Bright Ideas’ stands
The River City Blueprint ‘Your Bright Ideas’ stand enabled the project team to engage with the community about their ideas for the future 20 - 50 year development of inner Brisbane. Transport and connectivity was a high priority for many visitors to the stand. While this could be attributed to the structure of the ‘Your Bright Ideas Stand’ itself, it does represent a clear indication that transport and connectivity is integral to how people perceive their quality of life. Participants at the stand were given the opportunity to indicate proposed locations for future transport modes within the inner city by laying out sections of rope which represented:    Road (at surface, in tunnel) Public transport (busways, railways, metro, light rail) Active transport (walking and cycling)

Common transport/transit suggestions included:        Expansion of roads at motorway standard (in tunnels) but without tolls enabling bypass of the city centre Segregated and fully connected active transport networks that cross the city and follow the river and railway lines Increases in employment and residential uses focussed at areas of the city that have (or will have) access to public and active transport options Increases in the provision of high quality public open spaces, community facilities and entertainment options Development of an at-grade light rail system Expansion of the busways Provision of metro style, high frequency, high quality rail services.

Participants at the stand were also provided with several 3D bridges which could be placed on the map to indicate proposed river crossings. There was much consistency in where members of the community ‘installed’
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bridges across the city. Many people desired only public or active transport connections (to limit through traffic in their neighbourhood) and others wanted multi-modal bridges (for cars, buses, pedestrians and cyclists). People who suggested new locations for road based bridges acknowledged that there would be concern in the community about increasing local traffic, cost of construction (with respect to wide reaches of the river) and aesthetics. Many participants referenced the success of the Eleanor Schonell Bridge as a fantastic new linkage for public and active transport. Many of these people still expressed a desire to be able to drive across the bridge, however acknowledged that this would undermine its success as a public transport alternative. In many cases, the most popular bridge locations suggested by the community matched locations of existing cross-river ferry services, or locations proposed as crossing points in current or past government studies. Locations (in order from upstream to downstream within the study area) included:         St Lucia to West End Toowong to West End Milton to West End City to Kangaroo Point Kangaroo Point to New Farm Hawthorne or Norman Park to New Farm Newstead to Bulimba Hamilton to Bulimba

The word cloud below represents discussions with the community members through the ‘Your Bright Idea’ stands. The ‘wordle’ represents frequency through size, so the larger the font of the word, the more frequent it was noted in the records of conversations. The diagram does not represent positive or negative connotations, simply the frequency of the word in the record of conversations. This diagram includes comments collected about ‘transport’ (rope for public, active and road transport) and ‘bridges’. Figure 42 Word cloud of transport-related comments by community members at the 'Your Bright Ideas' public information stand

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9.3 Key Strategic Issues
9.3.1 Ensuring adequate mobility to the Brisbane community experiencing demographic change and ongoing residential and employment growth
Inner Brisbane, as the Queensland State Capital, and administrative, employment, business and cultural hub of the region, is experiencing continued and rapid residential growth. The ability of government to respond to such growth and enable continued mobility by private travel within the inner city is highly limited with regards to space, finances and urban impacts. Planning to date has sought to expand road capacity across the city and slow traffic growth on surface roads through the provision of a CBD bypass network (TransApex). Within the inner city, the provision of high capacity public and active transport will be the strategic enablers to enhancing personal mobility over the next 20-50 years of projected residential and employment growth

9.3.2 Responding to the identified transport task
The transport task needs to be identified and understood in order to be able to respond appropriately. The transport modelling that is currently being undertaken will forecast trip generation and mode shares. The forecast mode shares depend on a number of factors ranging from the attractiveness of one mode to the unattractiveness of another; for example high frequency public transport services attract patronage but only if use of private car is unattractive, perhaps because of the unavailability or cost of parking. Similarly, physically attractive footpaths will attract pedestrians but only if the risk of collision with commuter cyclists is low. Some key transport issues already understood are:      the existing road network is reaching capacity at peak times and the cost and loss of amenity of expanding the infrastructure within the River City Blue print area make this an unattractive option the capacity of the existing rail infrastructure is forecast to be reached by 2016 the capacity for bus access within the City Centre will be reached within a few years if current operating strategies continue the current pedestrian infrastructure is at capacity in many locations in the City Centre The safety and amenity of active transport modes is reaching a critical point.

The role and function of each mode needs to be clearly defined through feasibility studies to assist in developing a city vision for transport in inner Brisbane.

9.3.3

Ensuring future transport investment is targeted to appropriate modes

Once the transport task is identified and the appropriate response is developed, it is important that future transport investment is targeted towards this planned response. An implementation plan which identifies potential funding sources and project leaders will help guide transport investment in terms of timing and funding priorities. Understanding the needs of different trip purposes presents an opportunity for the River City Blueprint to influence the evolution of transport provision to promote a safe and efficient inner Brisbane for residents, commuters and visitors and to meet mode share targets.

9.3.4 Enabling Proximity
Proximity is an overarching urban ideal which seeks to provide amenities within short distances, reduce the negative impact on local public space by cars, reduce the need for driving and for road infrastructure and thereby ensure the permeability and walkability needed to create proximity. Proximity is a key principle in major cities such as New York and London where it is possible to enjoy and access public spaces without the use of a private vehicle. Increased urban densities can deliver desirable and attractive urban form while continuing to achieve economic growth. Proximity is also a key determinant of economic innovation.

9.3.5 Accommodating Diversity
Inner Brisbane provides mobility to a diverse demographic. Previous studies indicate that children and the elderly are less visible in the public realm than in other locations. The challenge for inner Brisbane will be to develop and grow into an area which feels safe and welcoming to the old and young and that provides these vulnerable users high mobility to access functions of the inner city.

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9.3.6 Providing fine grain connectivity
Prioritising small scale movements by walking and cycling can substitute vehicular traffic on short distances and boost public life by making people present in the public realm. Achieving fine grain connectivity is however a challenge. Particular destinations may justify special routes, however they should be linked into the ordinary street grid to increase permeability. Developing a pedestrian network which promotes walking, not only for leisure, but also for short commuting trips will assist in creating diverse and attractive public spaces Planning and delivering a pedestrian network for a sub-tropical climate is another challenge in developing active transport network. It is critical to ensure the pedestrian network is adequate to the task, including direct and desirable routes to public transport stop, stations and ferry terminals and other key attractors, and access to key pedestrian commuter networks. This will require investigations across a number of modes as walking generally forms a significant part of trips by all modes, particularly public transport. It is important that the particular needs of public transport users are considered in planning for pedestrians, such as the provision of appropriate, safe and convenient road crossings close to stops, stations and ferry terminals. The way buildings interface with the street at ground floor is important to creating a ‘readable’ and human scaled environment. The creation of ‘active frontages’ (buildings with cafes, shops, doors, windows and other entrances) in major developments and local centres can increase the intuitiveness of the urban environment and also create a pleasant, interesting walking environment. Conversely, development with ground floors heavily dominated by blank concrete walls and/or car parking can deter walking due to uninteresting environments; and the lack of orientation, social interaction and safety.

9.3.7 Providing human scale and ‘readable’ urban networks and spaces
Acknowledging connectivity is for access and not just mobility is a challenge for residents and planners alike. Brisbane has a highly developed car-reliant culture and dispersed urban form. The provision of large scale transport infrastructure has enabled and drastically improved high speed road based travel between distant locations. However this has often occurred at the expense of local areas where major infrastructure has created barriers to the intuitiveness and legibility of the local environment. Such infrastructure has created environments which discourage small-scale movement. In places such as Woolloongabba this has resulted in disconnected neighbourhoods and complicated traffic solutions which ultimately encourage driving while reducing the viability of alternatives such as walking, cycling and public transport.

9.3.8 Travel Demand Management
For sustainable development to be achieved the need for a move from the traditional transport planning approach of matching demand with supply needs to be recognised. Current world’s best practice recognises that travel demand needs to be a managed practice. A range of tools is available to manage travel demand, ranging from reducing the need to travel, improving the attractiveness of active and public transport modes and ceasing to increase capacity for car based travel (in certain locations).

9.3.9 Maximising efficiency of the current and future networks
The growth in demand for travel across the inner city will need careful management in order to match the appropriate solutions that maximise the usage of existing infrastructure. The focus needs to be placed on considerations of moving people rather than the traditional approach of moving vehicles and the modelling tools used need to be suitable for this task. Target mode shares have been derived under the Transport Plan for Brisbane that envisage a proportional reduction of car use and a corresponding increase of both active and public transport modes. It should be noted that although the proportion of trips made by car are expected to decrease, the quantum of trips made is expected to continue to increase and will need to be managed effectively. Provision needs to be made for the commercial trips needed to service the growing inner Brisbane area, which can also consider measures such as consolidation as well as facilities time-shared with other uses. The spread of growth in demand for commuter and distribution trips across the inner city will create gaps in both spatial coverage and capacity. Current commuter capacity is strained and largely focused on the CBD, confining quality public transport accessibility to the city centre and key approach corridors, where growth seeks to capture the benefits of high accessibility.

9.3.10 Providing appropriate and high quality active transport alternatives
Provision of a coherent and safe cycling network remains a challenge. It is noted in the Gehl report that while Brisbane does recreational cycling well, the current infrastructure is a major deterrent for many from cycling as a commuting option, in particular women. Many existing cycle routes are either too narrow and/or shared with pedestrians in ways that prevent cyclists from achieving acceptable commuting speed, or they are along busy arterial road networks where road space allocation to cyclists is inadequate. Brisbane currently has a disjointed
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network of on and off road cycle facilities with many parts struggling to maintain safety under existing demand. Achieving a coherent commuter network reflective of, and coordinated between, the Principle Cycle Network Plan and the Brisbane Active Transport Plan remains a challenge to ensure a cohesive network of task appropriate infrastructure is planned for and delivered.

9.3.11 Providing appropriate and high quality public transport alternatives
The limited range and choice available in public transport, particularly mass transport and an inner Brisbane distribution network, reflects the city’s traditional reliance on private travel. While current approaches acknowledge the continuity of road based transport, especially for the city as a whole, it will be important for the inner city to exploit opportunities to redefine transport choices with new and more efficient public and active transport modes. If it proceeds, the cross river rail project will enable increased rail capacity throughout the entire South East Queensland rail network. New rail services will be provided in the north-south corridor between Fairfield and Bowen Hills via Woolloongabba and the City, supporting the expansion of intense employment uses. However the project may also enable a broader shift towards a two-tiered rail network that enables both express suburban commuter rail services as well as the provision of inner-urban metro-style distribution services. In order to maximise the use of the rail infrastructure and busway network over time, new and improved bus feeder services will be needed that enable seamless connections between modes and that provide a broader range of destination choices. To ensure effective public transport a high level of service is required. Key issues to continually address include frequency, coverage, reliability and access. Increased densities and land use mix will enable efficient provision of services which needs to be supported by priority on transit corridors and intersection and safe, convenient and attractive pedestrian and cyclist access to stops, stations and ferry terminals.

9.3.12 Appropriate timing of land use changes and transport infrastructure investment to enable integrated outcomes
Sequencing of development and infrastructure delivery remains a key challenge in providing adequate transportation choices in the inner city Release and/or staging of development areas for major intensification under the Blueprint will depend on the timing of the delivery of public transport to support the proposed increases to land use intensity in inner city areas. It is important that high quality public transport infrastructure is delivered simultaneously or is in place in time for new development to ensure the early establishment of desired travel behaviour patterns. It is also important for new development to avoid overprovision of facilities for private travel in order to avoid the future expectation that significant road based improvements will occur. The locations where major change is envisaged include Bowen Hills, City, Fortitude Valley, Woolloongabba and Northshore. These areas are considered suitable for mixed use providing both residential and employment intensification.

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10 Next Steps
After the Forum, Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government will review the feedback and report back on what you said. Your feedback and the outcomes of the Forum will form part of a consultation report and help shape the draft River City Blueprint to be released later this year.

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The River City Blueprint is jointly funded by Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government’s Department of Infrastructure and Planning. Council is coordinating and leading the project. The River City Blueprint will draw together existing plans, studies and strategies for suburbs within five kilometres of the CBD to generate a single, consolidated vision for the area. It will also create a cohesive framework to manage future growth and infrastructure delivery. While the blueprint will primarily focus on a 20-year timeframe to 2031, the project will consider the 50-year horizon to 2061. The blueprint will address a range of issues including:       where to encourage new housing and commercial development how to design the inner city so it supports a sustainable subtropical lifestyle possible improvements to public spaces new public transport systems and river crossings how to encourage knowledge-based industries to establish near existing research and cultural institutions social infrastructure and housing to meet the existing and future needs of all residents, workers and visitors.

Cutting-edge national and international innovations will be explored through detailed technical studies, along with fresh ideas provided by industry experts and local people for old problems and tomorrow’s challenges. We need to think big and imagine the possibilities for tomorrow.

River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4th/5th June 2010

Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy

th th River City Blueprint – Strategic Directions Paper, River City Blueprint Forum 4 /5 June 2010

Not Brisbane City Council or Queensland Government Policy