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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

14 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Consolidates Ahead of Fed Decision Tonight, Odds of Hike
Close
at 100%
USDINR 67.540 67.418 0.123 0.18% The rupee weakened yesterday to closed 12 paise lower at 67.54
DXY INDX 100.990 101.12 -0.130 -0.13% against the US dollar on steady demand for the greenback from
EURUSD 1.064 1.061 0.003 0.25% importers and corporates.
GBPUSD 1.265 1.270 -0.005 -0.38% India July-Sept. current-account gap at $3.4 billion, or 0.6% of GDP,
USDJPY 115.150 115.42 -0.270 -0.23% from $0.3 billion deficit in previous quarter, RBI says in a statement.
DG USDINR 67.568 67.595 -0.027 -0.04% Current-account gap was 0.1% of GDP in the previous quarter. it
was $8.5b gap in the year ago period, or 1.7% of GDP.
The one month forward USDINR NDF quoted at 67.74 from
GLOBAL INDICES
yesterdays 67.68 5pm(IST) indicating weaker opening at domestic
bourses. The USDINR would drift lower ahead of Fed D-day.
Prev. Technically, the Spot USDINR is having support around 67.10 marks
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close while continue to resist around 67.75.
SGX NIFTY 8227.0 8216.0 11 0.13% India Nov. CPI at record low 3.63% on Demonetisation
NIFTY 8221.8 8170.8 51 0.62% This is the first retail inflation number partly factoring in govt.s
SENSEX 26697.8 26515.2 183 0.69% high-value currency ban announced Nov. 8. The drop in CPI inflation
was driven largely by slower growth in food prices of 2.6% in
HANG-SENG 22582.4 22446.7 136 0.60%
November compared with 3.7% in October. Within food, vegetables
NIKKEI 19235.5 19250.5 -15 -0.08% and pulses continued to drive the decline, while spiralling sugar
SHANGHAI 3147.8 3155.0 -7 -0.23% inflation seems to be contained at elevated levels. While food
S&P INDEX 2271.7 2257.0 15 0.65% accounted for 90% of this drop in CPI inflation, weaker core-CPI
DOW JONES 19911.2 19796.4 115 0.58% inflation also contributed. Within core-CPI, the fall was mainly driven
NASDAQ 5463.8 5412.5 51 0.95% by public transportation (railway, bus and taxi fares), personal care
items (excluding gold), medicines, clothing and household goods.
FTSE 6968.6 6890.4 78 1.13%
This drop in the rate of core-CPI to 4.7% from 4.8% is probably due
CAC 4803.9 4760.8 43 0.91% to demonetization and is therefore only likely to last until the end of
DAX 11284.7 11190.2 94 0.84% December.
Dollar Tread Water as Trader Await Clarity from Fed
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies on
today on uncertainty over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would
Segment 12-Dec-16 09-Dec-16 signal a slow or fast pace of interest rate increases at the end of a
closely-watched policy meeting.
Equity -- 743.18 The dollar index was last down 0.13% at 100.99. The dollar was up
Debt -- -2401.05 0.25% against the Euro at 1.064 after briefly touching a five-day
high of $1.0653.
The buck likely to remain calm today with strong resistance around
102 while hold support of 97.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The spot USDINR halted the fall, after eight consecutive daily losses.
The pair have the support around 67.11, the 200 Days simple moving average.
Momentum oscillators heading lower suggesting continuation down trend.
In near term, the pair would continue downtrend with expected support around 67.10 while face resistance at 67.76.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 67.60 67.56 67.36 67.41 67.51 67.66 67.71 67.81 Consolidation
EURINR 71.78 71.83 71.45 71.59 71.69 71.93 72.07 72.17 Short Covering
GBPINR 85.87 85.79 85.24 85.40 85.63 86.03 86.19 86.42 Consolidation
JPYINR 58.65 58.70 58.33 58.47 58.56 58.79 58.93 59.02 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.27 67.33 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 67.57 68.12 67.28 67.10 67.12
EURINR 73.35 71.42 75.64 71.42 77.49 71.42 72.28 72.63 73.28 74.03 74.67
GBPINR 86.88 84.83 86.88 81.66 101.79 80.89 85.29 85.36 83.60 85.64 90.10
JPYINR 60.14 58.78 66.11 58.08 68.11 53.86 58.85 60.41 62.56 64.14 63.08

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.48 67.57 67.42 67.54 0.12 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 67.51 67.62 67.47 67.60 0.08 1596062 129474 1529248 647064
SPOT EURINR 71.72 71.88 71.59 71.66 0.22 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 71.92 71.98 71.74 71.78 0.09 36761 -2291 30405 -19659
SPOT GBPINR 85.52 85.88 85.45 85.75 0.76 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 85.56 85.95 85.56 85.87 0.70 23986 23986 41677 31300
SPOT JPYINR 58.64 58.69 58.47 58.54 0.33 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 58.74 58.83 58.60 58.65 -0.32 38445 1941 22064 1593

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/13/2016 07:30 CH Industrial Production YoY Nov 6.10% 6.20% 6.10%
12/13/2016 15:00 UK CPI YoY Nov 1.10% 1.20% 0.90%
12/13/2016 15:30 EC Employment YoY 3Q -- 1.20% 1.40%
12/13/2016 15:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Dec -- 18.1 15.8
12/13/2016 17:30 IN CPI YoY Nov 3.90% 3.63% 4.20%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
12/14/2016 10:00 JN Industrial Production YoY Oct F -- -1.30%
12/14/2016 12:00 IN Wholesale Prices YoY Nov 3.10% 3.39%
12/14/2016 15:30 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Oct 0.90% 1.20%
12/14/2016 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 9-Dec -- -0.70%
12/14/2016 19:00 US PPI Final Demand YoY Nov 0.90% 0.80%
12/14/2016 19:45 US Industrial Production MoM Nov -0.20% 0.00%
12/14/2016 19:45 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Nov -0.40% 0.20%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]