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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

23 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee To Gain on Dollar Relaxes Ahead of Year End

The Indian rupee yesterday closed weaker against the US dollar


GBPINR DEC. FUT. SELL AT 83.65 SL 83.85 TGT 83.30 following the losses in the local equity and Asian currencies markets.
It closed at 67.99 per US dollar, down 0.11% from its previous close
of 67.91.
MAJOR CURRENCY The goods and services tax (GST) council two day meet end today
and expected to take up drafts of the model GST, integrated GST
and states compensation Bills. This will lead to boost sentiment for
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. domestic as well as foreign investor. The consensus to bill will pull
Close
rupee higher in todays session.
USDINR 67.990 67.914 0.076 0.11% The one month forward USDINR NDF quoted at 68.14 from
DXY INDX 103.060 102.82 0.240 0.23% yesterdays 68.21 indicating weaker start at domestic bourses.
EURUSD 1.044 1.046 -0.002 -0.21% Technically, USDINR future is having resistance at 68.27, the 23.6%
GBPUSD 1.228 1.234 -0.006 -0.49% Fibonacci resistance while 67.80, the up gap of 15 Dec. In short
USDJPY 117.470 117.58 -0.110 -0.09% term, the pair likely to consolidate in the range of 68.27 to 67.80.
DG USDINR 67.930 67.990 -0.060 -0.09%
Dollar Cools Off Heading Into Holidays
Forex market today as dealers bedded down for the Christmas
GLOBAL INDICES
holidays, though the mood remains bullish for more dollar gains in
the New Year as yield spreads widen in its favour. Dollar Index
Prev. marginally higher at 103.05 and within striking distance of the
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close week's 103.65 peak. Dollar could see its longest yearly win streak
SGX NIFTY 7967.0 7991.0 -24 -0.30% since 1984. Yen stood at 117.55 against dollar after reaching 118.66
NIFTY 7979.1 8061.3 -82 -1.02% a week ago, its strongest since early February.
SENSEX 25979.6 26242.4 -263 -1.00% The real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate
of 3.5% in the third quarter of this year, the fastest quarterly
HANG-SENG 21511.3 21636.2 -125 -0.58%
growth since 2014, according to the third estimate released by the
NIKKEI 19427.7 19444.5 -17 -0.09% Commerce Department yesterday. The growth rate was revised up
SHANGHAI 3125.0 3139.6 -15 -0.46% from the second estimate of 3.2% and also higher than market
S&P INDEX 2261.0 2265.2 -4 -0.19% consensus.
DOW JONES 19918.9 19942.0 -23 -0.12% People filing applications for unemployment benefits rose more than
NASDAQ 5447.4 5471.4 -24 -0.44% expected to a six-month high last week, potentially reflecting
seasonal swings in a still-healthy labor market. US Jobless claims
FTSE 7063.7 7041.4 22 0.32%
increased by 21,000 to 275,000 in the week ended Dec. 17, a
CAC 4834.6 4833.8 1 0.02% report from the Labor Department showed. Seasonally adjusted
DAX 11456.1 11468.6 -13 -0.11% claims have stayed below the 300,000 level for 94 consecutive
weeks, the longest stretch since 1970.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

Spot USDINR recovered intraday losses and ended on positive note to close at 67.99, gaining 8 paise for the day.
Momentum oscillators exited from oversold conditions and heading upward, adding strength in current upwards move.
In near term, Spot USDINR will get resistance around 68.27, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement while 67.68 remains support.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 67.98 67.95 67.67 67.75 67.87 68.06 68.14 68.26 Consolidation
EURINR 71.19 71.10 70.52 70.69 70.94 71.35 71.52 71.77 Sell on Bounce
GBPINR 83.93 83.93 83.59 83.70 83.82 84.04 84.15 84.27 Sell on Bounce
JPYINR 57.88 57.84 57.52 57.62 57.75 57.98 58.07 58.20 Consolidation

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.89 67.42 68.86 66.96 68.86 66.07 67.92 68.03 67.46 67.15 67.10
EURINR 72.02 70.71 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 70.83 72.02 72.77 73.80 74.48
GBPINR 85.88 84.13 86.88 83.64 100.49 80.89 84.12 85.22 83.83 85.37 89.71
JPYINR 58.78 57.25 63.34 57.25 68.11 54.67 57.72 59.05 61.64 63.63 63.02

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.84 68.03 67.83 67.99 0.08 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 67.88 68.03 67.83 67.98 0.05 1938341 -88538 713891 123471
SPOT EURINR 70.85 71.22 70.81 71.14 0.47 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 70.91 71.26 70.85 71.19 0.43 26460 -2108 43651 21328
SPOT GBPINR 83.88 84.01 83.76 83.88 -0.06 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 83.99 84.04 83.82 83.93 -0.08 23516 -1769 31527 -6311
SPOT JPYINR 57.70 57.89 57.67 57.82 0.00 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 57.77 57.94 57.71 57.88 0.00 35873 -1541 17362 -5667

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/22/2016 19:00 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q T 3.30% 3.50% 3.20%
12/22/2016 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders Nov P -4.70% -4.60% 4.80%
12/22/2016 19:00 US Core PCE QoQ 3Q T -- 1.70% 1.70%
12/22/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 17-Dec 258k 275k 254k
12/22/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 10-Dec -- 2036k 2018k
12/22/2016 20:30 US Personal Income Nov 0.30% 0.00% 0.60%
12/22/2016 20:30 US Personal Spending Nov 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
12/22/2016 20:30 US Leading Index Nov 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
12/22/2016 20:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Nov 1.50% 1.40% 1.40%
12/22/2016 20:30 US PCE Core YoY Nov 1.80% 1.60% 1.80%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior


12/23/2016 15:00 UK GDP YoY 3Q F 2.30% 2.30%
12/23/2016 15:00 UK Current Account Balance 3Q -28.7b -28.7b
12/23/2016 20:30 US New Home Sales Nov 575k 563k
12/23/2016 20:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec F 98.1 98

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]