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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

27 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Rallies for Second Day with Low Volume

Rupee closed nearly two week high in low volume trade on back of
SELL JPYINR AT CMP 57.89 SL 58.10 TGT 57.61/57.45 Christmas holiday in major developed market. The rupee closed at
67.74 per US dollara level last seen on 14 December, up 0.11%
from its previous close of 67.83. The benchmark 10-year
MAJOR CURRENCY government bond yield closed at 6.574% compared to Fridays close
of 6.544%. Yields rise across the curve ahead of $2.6b state bond
sale today. Thirteen states to sell 179.5b of bonds today.
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. The one month forward USDINR NDF quoted at 68.06, higher by 4
Close
paise suggesting flat to positive opening. However, technically the
USDINR 67.736 67.825 -0.089 -0.13% pair is in profit booking mode on hourly chart with down side
DXY INDX 103.130 102.92 0.210 0.20% support in the range of 67.70 to 67.58 while continue to face
EURUSD 1.044 1.045 -0.002 -0.16% resistance around 67.95.
GBPUSD 1.227 1.228 -0.001 -0.09%
USDJPY 117.350 117.10 0.250 0.21% Dollar Edge up after Holidays
DG USDINR 67.774 67.732 0.042 0.06%
The dollar edge up against the yen and euro early today as investors
emerged out of the holiday lull to hunt for bargains as the market
GLOBAL INDICES
entered the last trading stretch of the year. For now the dollar index
added 0.2% to 103.13, clawing back towards a 14-year high of
Prev. 103.650 marked a week ago. US Yields on Treasury bonds rise
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close across the curve, with 10-year yield up 2bps at 2.56%. U.S. bond
SGX NIFTY 7923.0 7911.0 12 0.15% market has completely priced in optimism for Trumps policies
NIFTY 7908.3 7985.8 -78 -0.97% pushing up near-term economic growth.
SENSEX 25807.1 26040.7 -234 -0.90% USD/JPY set for first advance in five days as the pair remains
vulnerable to downside risks amid lack of fresh catalysts and low
HANG-SENG 21574.8 21636.2 -61 -0.28%
liquidity as dollar rally takes breather.
NIKKEI 19451.9 19396.6 55 0.28% The yen did not show any action to Japan's inflation data, which saw
SHANGHAI 3116.0 3122.6 -7 -0.21% core consumer prices mark the ninth straight month of annual
S&P INDEX 2263.8 Close -- -- declines in November. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell
DOW JONES 19933.8 Close -- -- 0.4% y/y in November, vs. est. -0.3%.
NASDAQ 5462.7 Close -- -- The financial markets in Sydney, Hong Kong and London still closed
today for the Christmas holidays.
FTSE 7068.2 Close -- --
The dollar likely to continues good show in todays session with low
CAC 4839.7 Close -- -- volume and volatility.
DAX 11449.9 Close -- --

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
Spot USDINR weakens for the second sessions to settle at 67.74 fell by 9 paise or 0.13%.
The pair is having Gap Up support in the range of 67.70 to 67.58.
Momentum oscillators exited from oversold conditions, but RSI and RSI Average is flatten giving no clues for the day.
In near term, Spot USDINR will get resistance at 67.94 and 68.07, the middle band of the Bollinger band and recent top
respectively, while on down side 67.58 and 67.325 remain support. .

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 67.71 67.76 67.53 67.62 67.67 67.80 67.89 67.94 Bullish
EURINR 70.88 70.91 70.40 70.58 70.73 71.06 71.24 71.39 Bearish
GBPINR 83.25 83.28 82.98 83.09 83.17 83.36 83.48 83.55 Consolidation
JPYINR 57.89 57.93 57.63 57.74 57.82 58.01 58.12 58.20 Bearish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.07 67.71 68.86 67.33 68.86 66.07 67.90 67.94 67.50 67.16 67.09
EURINR 71.22 70.42 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 70.83 71.84 72.63 73.74 74.43
GBPINR 84.70 83.07 86.88 83.07 100.49 80.89 83.64 85.00 83.90 85.28 89.58
JPYINR 57.90 57.45 62.80 57.25 68.11 54.82 57.79 58.74 61.39 63.47 63.00

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.81 67.86 67.72 67.74 -0.09 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 67.82 67.85 67.71 67.71 -0.09 1897664 -36149 438343 -350700
SPOT EURINR 70.93 71.01 70.76 70.84 -0.03 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 71.09 71.09 70.76 70.88 -0.01 23570 -2511 15232 -10948
SPOT GBPINR 83.34 83.38 83.14 83.16 -0.02 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 83.29 83.40 83.21 83.25 0.08 22373 -3775 14697 -31004
SPOT JPYINR 57.94 57.97 57.84 57.85 0.07 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 57.95 58.05 57.86 57.89 0.06 33931 -2251 7669 -1875

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
None

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
None

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]