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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

28 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Weakens Ahead of Dec. Contract Expiry

The domestic currency fell to three-week low against the US dollar


SELL JPYINR JAN FUT. AROUND 58.50 SL 58.75 TGT 58.00 after foreign institutional investors continued to sell in the local equity
and debt markets. Also, fall in Asian currencies markets also
dampened the sentiment. The rupee closed at 68.06 per US dollar--a
level last seen on 5 December, down 0.47% from its previous close of
MAJOR CURRENCY 67.74. It touched a low of 68.08--a level last seen on 6 December.
Since 8 November, the foreign institutional investors have sold a
Prev. combined of over $9.72 billion in local equity and debt markets. So far
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close this year, foreign institutional investors have bought $3.44 billion in
USDINR 68.058 67.736 0.321 0.47% equities and sold $6.61 billion in debt.
DXY INDX 102.960 103.02 -0.060 -0.06% The one month forward USDINR NDF quoted at 68.26, up 1 paise from
EURUSD 1.047 1.045 0.002 0.16% yesterdays 68.25 at 5pm (IST) indicating flat opening at domestic
bourses. Technically, the pair had crossed recent top suggesting near
GBPUSD 1.229 1.226 0.003 0.24%
term reversal. Spot USDINR would move towards 68.36 in coming
USDJPY 117.690 117.31 0.380 0.32% days while find support around 67.70.
DG USDINR 68.013 68.018 -0.005 -0.01%
Upbeat US Consumer Confidence Pulled Dollar Against Yen
GLOBAL INDICES
The dollar inched up against the yen early today after upbeat U.S.
economic data reinforced expectations for economic growth under
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Donald Trump's Administration and more rate hikes by U.S. Federal
Close Reserve next year. The dollar rose 0.32% against the yen to 117.69,
SGX NIFTY 8056.5 8047.5 9 0.11% adding to its gains of nearly 0.5% yesterday. USD/JPY likely to stay
NIFTY 8032.9 7908.3 125 1.58% above 117 as there is no catalyst for active trading into New Year
SENSEX 26213.4 25807.1 406 1.57% holidays.
HANG-SENG 21550.5 21574.8 -24 -0.11% The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of
six major peers, last stood at 102.96, down 0.06%. Treasuries fell in
NIKKEI 19406.9 19403.1 4 0.02% narrow ranges, with most of the drop occurring in early U.S. trading,
SHANGHAI 3113.7 3114.7 -1 -0.03% before bigger-than-expected increases in the Consumer Confidence
S&P INDEX 2268.9 2263.8 5 0.22% Index and two regional manufacturing surveys for December and gains
DOW JONES 19945.0 19933.8 11 0.06% for stocks and most commodities. US 10Y yield has plied a 5 basis-
point range over the past 5 days, its tightest band over a 5-day period
NASDAQ 5487.4 5462.7 25 0.45%
since Nov. 2015.
FTSE 7068.2 7063.7 4 0.06% American Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index rose
CAC 4848.3 4839.7 9 0.18% to 113.7, the highest since August 2001, as expectations for strength
DAX 11472.2 11449.9 22 0.19% in job growth, business conditions and the stock market continued to
build following Donald Trump's election to president.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
After two days pause, USDINR back with the bang and gain 0.5% or 32 paise to end at 68.06, surpassing recent high. It also
surpassed the near term resistance of 20 Days SMA placed at 67.91.
The pair has sharply rebounded without filling Gap Up 67.70 indicating strength in near term.
Momentum oscillators exited from oversold conditions and given positive cross over of RSI and RSI Average suggesting strong up
trend.
The recent technical set up indicating resistance around 68.36 and support at 67.70 with overall bias remains bullish till support
line breaks.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.28 68.21 67.88 67.96 68.12 68.37 68.45 68.61 Bullish
EURINR JAN17 71.46 71.32 70.77 70.91 71.19 71.60 71.74 72.01 Short Covering
GBPINR JAN17 83.87 83.81 83.37 83.50 83.69 84.00 84.13 84.31 Short Covering
JPYINR JAN17 58.35 58.27 57.92 58.01 58.18 58.44 58.53 58.70 Sell on Rally

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.07 67.71 68.86 67.33 68.86 66.07 67.90 67.91 67.52 67.17 67.09
EURINR 71.22 70.42 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 70.94 71.75 72.58 73.71 74.41
GBPINR 84.70 83.07 86.88 83.07 100.49 80.89 83.53 84.90 83.93 85.24 89.52
JPYINR 57.90 57.45 62.38 57.25 68.11 54.86 57.86 58.59 61.27 63.39 62.99

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.81 68.08 67.81 68.06 0.32 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.06 68.29 68.05 68.28 0.27 1171885 349244 588910 429225
SPOT EURINR 70.72 71.16 70.72 71.15 0.31 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 71.05 71.46 71.05 71.46 0.29 25397 5432 18924 11119
SPOT GBPINR 83.09 83.54 83.09 83.47 0.31 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 83.65 83.94 83.63 83.87 0.18 22774 3892 9240 4818
SPOT JPYINR 57.72 58.03 57.72 58.01 0.16 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 58.10 58.36 58.10 58.35 0.12 16588 9859 15873 13515

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/28/2016 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Nov P 4.70% 4.60% -1.40%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
12/28/2016 15:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Nov 41400 40851
12/28/2016 20:30 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Nov -- 0.20%
12/28/2016 21:00 US Dallas Fed Mfg. Activity Dec 10.1 10.2

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]