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ESSAY Summer 1980 lseue

East-West Trade: A European View


By Gi<nJanni Agnelli

T
be United States and the whole West are facing particularly haxd times. Détente between
the superpowers has come to a standstill; world peace is in jeopardy, and mistakes now
can be more hazardous than ever before. The time has come to speak as candidly as
possible, to avoid dangerous misunderstandings among Western partners and allies.

I am a businessman, not a politician. And though I think business to be good in itself, I am fully
aware that, at criticai times in history, business may heavily depend on politica! decision-making.
Today, indeed, the decision-making process involves, to an unprecedented degree, measures in the
economie sphere. At all times it is necessary that this process-widened to include Japan as well as
Western Europe-rest on hard fact-.fìnding efforts, shared judgments, agreed principles and values,
full consultation, and the greatest possible degree of policy coordination. But when the measures
being considered are at the economie ievei, it is especially criticai to take into account the mutuai
1nus, n arorrner Japanese Foretgn Mihtsrer, Kttchi MtyaZawa, recently pur ii, mere ts fooay a
special "need for America to acknowledge the plurality of interests of the allies and accept its
consequences.... The de:fi.nition of the interests of the alliance on any issue has to become a
collective exercise." The same is emphatically true for Europe: if the United States fails to take into
account the variety of national interests and viewpoints, whieh are the result of economie structures
and of historical realities, it will be led to misjudge the reactions of its allies. Some recent and
sudden changes in American policies, as well as the inadequacy of consultations, may have made it
increasingly difficult for the Europeans and Japanese to align themselves with America's strategies,
especially when they often have little or no influence in de:fi.ning and timing such strategies.

Today, the aggressive thrust of Soviet military power, the Mideast diplomatic and political turmoil,
the skyrocketing prices and the scarcity of oil, the galloping worldwide inflation, and the strains on
the international monetary system have drastically changed the global situation and made the
economie and social position of Europe much more difficult. Yet ali this is paralleled by a new
widespread feeling of impotence on the part of the Western alliance in coping with the latest
Mideast political events, which both Iranians and Soviets have overtly exploited to their own
advantage: the former by viciously tearing down the basic principles of international relations, the
latter by trying to widen, step by step, their geopolitical sphere of influence.

In part the situation involves the newly perceived importance of relations with nations once
considered in the category of developing nations, a new predominance of North-South relations or,
as some might say, an end of Eurocentrism. But it also involves a redefìnition of the notion of
détente in East-West relations-if indeed it was ever defined at all-in terms of the roles and conduct
not only of the superpowers themselves but also of the Western countries allied with the United
States.

In this latter area, no subject is more centrai. or controversia!. than the policies to be followed in
East-West trade relations. Europe's trade with the East now far exceeds that of the United States;
yet it is the United States, not only the present Administration but its predecessors, that has
pressed for a forceful approach linked to political developments. The need for understanding and
coordination is acute.

I shall approach this subject using recent history as frame of reference. This subject has been indeed
the center of a hot debate which has not stopped to this day, creating diverging views inside the
United States itself. I then propose to sketch briefly the opportunities and problems created by
East-West trade. I shall fìnally try to draw some generai conclusions. These notes are motivated by
the desire to share my views and experience as a European industrialist who is deeply committed,
as a citizen of the West, to the improvement of relations between America and its Western partners,
for the sake of our common democratic values, the preservation of peace and for the common good
as well.

II
quantities of English goods were being sold to the Russian foreign trade monopoly of the day at the
mouth of the Narva River, a Polish waming to Elizabethan England read: "We know and feel of a
surety that the Muscovite, enemy to ali liberty under the heavens, is daily growing mighty by the
increase of such things as he brought to the Narva ... by means whereof he maketh himself strong
to vanquish all others." In the days of the second Elizabeth, the governments of the United
Kingdom and of the United States have been using the same arguments in order to advise restraint
in the sale of "advanced technology" to the U.S.S.R.

The creation of the Soviet state, and its reluctant recognition by the capitalist nations (last of all the
United States), gave the debate new impetus. In 1920, Mr. Lloyd George felt that having failed "to
restare Russia to sanity by farce," the West might "save her by trade," which, in his opinion, would
"bring an end to the ferocity, the rapine and the crudity of Bolshevism surer than any other
method." Opponents of such trade could, however, quote, against Mr. Lloyd Georgets views,
statements by the Soviet leaders which are remembered to this day, like the declaration made in
March 1921 by L. B. Kam.enev, Deputy Chairman of the centrai Soviet government:

We are convinced that the foreign capitalists, who will be obliged to work on the terms we offer
them, will dig their own grave. . . . Foreign capitai will fulfill the role Marx predicted for it....
With every additional shovel of coal, with every additional load of oil that we in Russia obtain
through the help of foreign technique, capitai will be digging its own grave.1

This statement, by the way, was being made in order to reassure the Soviet hard-liners, who feared
that trade with the West might "contaminate" the new communist society. Not so, Lenin said; on
the contrary, capitalists would even sell communists the rope with which to hang themselves.

Whether trade with the West will strengthen communism and make it more lethal, as Lenin and
friends seemed to believe, or whether it will make it "saner" and more peaceful, as Lloyd George
hoped, is a question which, to this day, has not been settled to everybody's satisfaction. The issue
took on fresh importance after World War Il, when the Soviet Union carne to be perceived as
threatening to all its neighbors including Western Europe. At the same time, the Soviets
themselves concentrated on making themselves as nearly self-sufficient as possible. especially in
areas related to military power, and for years their ability to pay for imports through the export of
needed goods or raw materials was limited, along with their willingness to borrow-while the West
1h rne past 20 years, ma espectany mme past aecaae, rne sIEuatiOn Ras cnangea atastlcatty, Bofh m
politica! and economie terms. In Europe at least, the end of the Berlin crisis in 1962 brought with it
at least a relaxation of the cold war, and the term passed from use entirely in 1971-72, with the
advent of what we now call détente. Thus, limitations and controls on Western exports to the Soviet
Union were gradually lowered, while in the 1970s the Soviet Union showed itself able to export
much increased quantities of raw materials and also of oil and methane gas-and, along with the East
European countries, more willing to enter into credit arrangements with the West.

In Europe, the new possibilities of trade and investment thus opened up were accepted with genera!
approvai, not only in the business community but in government and indeed throughout European
societies. In the United States, on the other hand, there continued to be a heated and complex
confrontation of sharply differing opinions. While the business community was generally favorable
to the expansion of trade, many trade unions were opposed or skeptical, and there were others who
continued to fear that the West might simply add to Soviet power.

The Am.erican government itself was divided between supporters, mostly in the economie and State
Departments, and skeptics, mostly in the White House. Former Secretary of State Kissinger has
given an interesting account of those debates.2 In his memoirs he tells us that, when the Nixon
Administration carne into office, the traditional restrictions on America's trade with the U.S.S.R.
were being widely criticized: liberal opinion regarded them as "archaisms of the Cold War."
President Johnson himself had announced, in October 1966, a shift from "the narrow concept of co-
existence to the broader vision of peaceful engagement," which was expressed in a series of minor
liberalizing measures on trarle and credits. Even during the Nixon years, the prevalent theory of the
Administration was that we should move from an era of confrontation into an era of negotiation
and even cooperation.

But, while the State Department generally favored liberalization on the ground that "it would
improve the politica! atmosphere" and the Commerce Department favored it in answer to the
demands of the American business community, the White House held the view that "given Soviet
needs, expanding trade without a politica! quid pro quo was a gift." This was the so-called linkage
theory. "Our strategy," Mr. Kissinger states, "was to use trade concessions as a politica! instrument,
withholding them when Soviet conduct was adventurous, and granting them in measured doses
when the Soviets behaved cooperatively."

With the development of détente, in fact, especially after the Moscow agreements of 1972, in spite
of "the White House's deterrnination to have trade follow political progress and not precede it,"
Washington seemed to have accepted the view that by creating relations of "interdependence,"
pressure groups would develop on both sides that would malre détente and cooperation between the
superpowers more secure, especially in a time of crisis. Yet there always were enough contradictions
and uncertainties about the exact meaning of détente to make it rather di:fficult to obtain universal
agreement on the connections between détente itself and the strengthening of trade relations.
leaders as domestic. This "far more ambitious form of linkage," as Mr. Kissinger rightly describes it
in his memoirs,3 culminated in the Jackson-Vanik and Stevenson Amendments of 1974, putting
em.igration conditions on most-favored-nation tariff treatment and limiting American officia!
credits, with the result that the Soviet leaders refused to go through with the trade agreements that
had heen a major feature of the origina! détente agreements of 1972.

Thus, there were domestic political factors that limited the growth of U.S.-Soviet trade, although
the policy of détente was pursued in the 1960s and 1970s with equal conviction by Europe, Japan
and successive American administrations. In addition, there are practical conditions that tend to
limit American trade with the Soviet Union.

The United States and the U.S.S.R. are both economie areas of continental size. They have a
wealth of raw material and energy resources, low population density, a high level of economie self-
su.f:lìciency. Foreign trade represents a much larger proportion of the gross national product (GNP)
for the European nations than for America and the Soviet Union. Europe's and Japan's need for
primary commodities and energy resources, together with the Soviet Union's need for manufactures
and advanced technology, creates conditions of "complementarity" among these economies which do
not exist to the same degree between the American and Soviet economies.

Whatever the balance among politica! and economie causes, in practical terms the growth of trade
links was far greater among the Western "middle powers," particularly Germany, Japan, Italy and
France, and the Soviet Union. Trade between the superpowers grew much more slowly.

The following table will better clarify the current mutuai relationship:4

OTHER

USA EEC U.S.S.R. EAST

EUROPEAN

COUNTRIES

GNP (in billions of dollars) 2108.0 1950.0 1254 384

Total export 144.0 462.0 52 64

Total import 183.0 463.0 51 71

Export to COMECON 7.0 17.0 - -

Import to COMECON 1.5 16.0 - -

Export to Western countries5 - -13 15

Import from Western countries - - 16 12


the indebtedness charges.

III

In addition to this basic quantitative difference, there developed important differences both in the
character of the goods traded between the Soviet bloc countries and Western Europe, on the one
hand, and these countries and the United States, on the other, and aiso on the extent to which
Western Europe and the United States entered into deais by which the West supplied capitai and
technology for new industriai enterprises and received in return a portion of the output of these
enterprises.

If one looks at the inner export structure of Western Europe's tracie with the bloc, we can see that
European Economie Community exports to East European countries (including the U.S.S.R.)
consist of 88 percent machinery and other industriai goods, the remainder being food. Imports
from the East cover only 8 percent machinery, and 17 percent semifìnished goods, the remainder
being oil, methane gas and raw materiais. In particular, imports from the Soviet Union show a still
greater prevalence of fuel, oil and raw materiais.

This trend has increased in the last few years. In fact, Soviet exports of energy to Europe have
grown remarkably. In the EEC, imports from the Soviet bloc in coal, oil and gas amount to
between .fìve and six percent of the EEC's total primary energy consumption. lt is worth noting
that the import-export mix has remained aimost unchanged during the last decade, with the
periodic floatings link.ed to Russian imports of grain. Once again a high degree of complementarity
between the European economy and the sociaiist economy becomes evident.

The current high unreliability of energy supply from traditional Middle East sources gives greater
relative importance to "marginar supplies from the Soviet Union, even though the Soviet Union,
too, is potentially unreliable. This is a condition of structural vulnerability which cannot be quickly
modifìed.

Moreover, business in Western Europe was much more prepared than American business to enter
into technology-for-output deais. Such deals are an interesting phenomenon which started with the
Eastern countries, particularly eager to cooperate with Europe, either because they lack.ed the
fìnancial means to pay far industriai technologies, or because they could partly compensate for the
stiff division of labor imposed by the Soviet Union inside the COMECON countries. Today, even
the Soviet Union does not hide its interest in this type of approach to trade. Its motivations may be
different. The Soviet Union, in fact, is industrially self-sufficient, very dose to having a trade
baiance surplus and, of course, it even benefits from a major gold output.

As a matter of fact, in Eastern countries today, we can build up joint ventures with a minority
participation of Western capitai investment and, recently, in Bulgaria, even with a majority
participation. These facts show a certain adjustment to Western patterns, considering that we are
dealing with East European countries. To date, these countries have been punctilious in honoring
1h aodiifon, ah importaht and convehieht busihess ror Western counffies dévefoped wnenever mey
could get methane gas in payment for the installation of gas pipelines connecting Eastem countries
with each other and, later, with Western Europe.

Why was American business, or in some cases the American government, reluctant to have the
United States, with its highly appreciated know-how and technology, enter into similar deals?
Obviously, the holding back was on the American side, again related to a generalized concern lest
trade and the furnishing of advanced technology contribute to Soviet military power, and on
occasion due to specifìc politica! concems, in effect a form of "linkage." The ground was therefore
clear for large West European involvement in the construction of industriai plants such as the
Togliattigrad car manufacturing facility.

One particular example of the impact of political considerations was the decision of the United
States and Japan not to cooperate with the Soviet Union in the development of the large potential
oil and gas fìelds of Eastern Siberia, especially in the Yakutsk area. This "Siberian deal" hung fìre
through the mid-1970s, but was .6.nally allowed to lapse, apparently in part lest it disturb the
development of stronger politica! and economie ties with China, but in large part also because of
security concerns that expanded oil and gas output might increase the military potential of the
Soviet Union.

lt would be inappropriate for me to criticize the American position on these matters, but I do
believe that time has shown that the Siberian deaI would have been, on balance, wise from the
standpoint of American interests as well as those of the West in generai. Specifically, had it gane
through there would be less pressure today by the Soviet Union for access, through peaceful or not
so peaceful means, to the oil of the Middle East. Obviously, that enterprise involved great risks,
both political or economie, due to the dozen billions of dollars to be invested in the project. The
Russians, who are good at long-term planning, but not very good appraisers of short-term targets,
were certainly right in foreseeing the future scarcity of energy both far themselves and the
COMECON countries. The politica! will of the West should have prevailed over myopic economie
considerations, such as an assumed collapse of international oil prices. Todays world tension
perhaps would not overwhelmingly concentrate on the Persian Gulf, which ever since Moham.med
has been an area of instability.

My conviction is that the failure of the "Siberian deal" was a great opportunity lost to world peace.
There was danger, of course, of creating a simultaneous greater dependence of the West on Soviet
energy resources. But this fact would have balanced off the intense, almost exclusive relation with
the Middle East.

Finally, because both trade and investment opportunities in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe
were picked up far more by West European (and to some extent Japanese} business than by
American business, the great bulk of the necessary financing was arranged in E urope and under
European management, albeit with extensive private American participation.
the universal view of business leaders and people involved must have some weight. Business with
the East is usually good business, for reasons which are related to its own special characteristics.
Even if intense inter-Western competition, against a monopolistic buyer, may sometimes reduce
profìt margins to narrow limits, the very size of the "buyer," as well as the size of the deals this
gigantic buyer may offer, make these relations rather unique.

Mr. Piero Savoretti, one of the leading European operators in this fìeld, estimates that almost ali
deals concluded by his trade company in recent years with the Soviet Union produced, as a result,
the construction of huge factories or the incredible expansion of already existing facilities. The most
important of these deals has been the Togliattigrad car factory.

When dealing with a unique social and economie entity such as the Soviet Union-generally rich, yet
characterized by uneven levels of development in different areas-the Western seller may use
technology which has already been developed for his own uses; or he may, if the size of the deal
justifìes it, experiment on a grander scale on new technology, which he will then find useful at
home. For some Western producers (including American grain producers), the Soviet Union, and
sometimes also the East European client-nation, can be the only client in his category, as far as the
size of possible deals is concemed.

Although the Eastern buyer is usually considered "a hard customer," who is quite aware of his
"monopsonic" powers, he is as often considered a reliable customer. He may ask for easy credit on a
large scale and accumulate debts. This applies more to East European countries than to the Soviet
1
Union. In fact the Soviet balance of trade is fundamentally sound, due to that country s great
wealth in rare minerals and energy resources. The U.S.S.R is also thought to be a reliable partner
in its payments, one that may pay in gold when necessary. Of course, a special strength is attached
to this condition: the debtor has a certain hold on his creditor.

In fact the indebtedness of East European countries is today in the arder of over $66 billion, half of
which is covered by govemment-insured export credits. Barring an impending war menace, one can
hardly believe that credit services can be cut off abruptly. For those countries, that would mean an
interruption of imports of products and equipment which are essential to ensure the continued
operation of the Western technological capitai investment underway.

A payment failure-should it hypothetically occur-would affect not only government expenses but
also the Eurodollar market. In fact the amount of money involved is relatively small, yet its impact
on the highly sophisticated mechanism of such a market would be substantial. The outcome is that
certain banks are likely to be badly hit, triggering as a consequence a chain reaction. In a situation
of this kind, the institution of a supernational body would be needed to avoid a potentially more
serious crisis for the international banking system.

Nevertheless, the special conditions of E ast-West trade do not contradict the unanimous opinion of
people involved who say that "this is good business." l t is good for the Soviet Union as well. But
IV

If this is a fair summary of the way East-West trarle has evolved, and of the prevailing European
view of its economie merits, there still remains the originai question of its political impact. Here I
must frankly state my persona! view. Based on my direct experience in this fìeld and concrete
knowledge of facts and people concemed, I believe that, on the whole and within certain limits,
trade does indeed encourage the growth, inside Soviet society, of forces and views naturally
oriented toward the pursuit of more peaceful relations with the rest of the world. It is not so
difficult to identify, in the Soviet hierarchy of power, those economie and technocratic groups which
are in favor of strengthening ties with the West for economie reasons, in arder to develop Soviet
technology and, in general, to compensate for Soviet economie failures and backwardness. If these
people and groups have a certain influence on Soviet policy-and they presumably do have one-
theirs is bound to be an influence for détente and peace, rather than for actions leading to a "cold
war" atmosphere.

Along with this pressure the Soviet Union is experiencing a certain "dissent~ which may be effective
in the context we are discussing. This is not an anti-Soviet movement, but rather a grass roots farce
that strives to introduce within the Soviet regime a greater sensitivity for an economy management
resting on economie evaluations rather than on the rigid planning of the bureaucratic military
system. We must carefully avoid stifling the emergence of such new forces. Trade restrictions would
cause serious problems for them.

As for the COMECON countries, their reliance on trade and "détente" relations with the West is
frequently linked with their aspiration for greater autonomy from the U.S.S.R. I think such
relations (more trade, more freedom, or a growing degree of self-determination, at least in
business) are evident and should not be discouraged.

I would lik.e to present one more point in favor of trade. Should the fìnal result of growth in East-
West trade be a noticeable improvement in the living standard of the Russian people, that in my
opinion would be good for Western interests. Any time I go to Moscow and see cars in the streets-
not just officia! cars, but private cars in increasing number-1 can't help seeing an evident relation
between freedom of moving around and politica! freedom, or, at least, a growing desire for it.

In conclusion, a "better ofF' Soviet Union will bave additional reasons not to risk its new affiuence
in a confrontation with the West, and it could be more easily liberalized. The breakup of East-West
economie relations would weaken those politica! forces which are supporting détente and
cooperation. The Soviet "hawks" would be strengthened in their expansionistic policies, as the only
remedy for the economie problems of the Soviet Union: arms, rather than trade, would have to be
chosen as an instrument to achieve the great ideologica! ambition of the Soviet Union.

V
the Soviet leadership, and for which that leadership can command adequate resources from inside
the Soviet territory. It is impossible to prove-with the exclusion of a few high-technology areas-that
East-West trade adds more to Soviet power than it contributes to the well-being of the Western
econom1es.

It has been claimed that, without the support of Western food and technology, the Soviets would be
forced to divert essential skills and resources from the production of armaments. That is hard to
believe. The politica! control of Soviet society by the communist system is such that it surely can
concentrate on armaments production as much strength as it considers necessary to achieve its
aims. This was the case during the past decades when the level of available resources-and the living
standards of the Soviet people-were immeasurably lower than they are now. The Stalinist regime
was the dreadful outcome of such hard times. Today's conditions are sharply different. Yet the
structural over-power of the Soviet bureaucratic and military system does not seem to have
changed. To some extent, it automatically produces the required concentration of human and
materia! resources in high-priority areas, within the fundamental aims of a global strategy
determined by the system itself. To blame East-West trade for the increase in Soviet power during
the last decade or so is therefore unrealistic. lt is especially so when considering how small these
exchanges are if compared with the size of the Soviet economy. In fact, the latest data available
show that the tota! Western tracie {including American) with the U.S.S.R., in 1978, is no higher
than 1.4 percent of estimated Soviet GNP.

Finally, one should not forget that a net separation still exists between the "clvii" and "military"
sectors of the Soviet economy. The Soviet leadership, being well aware of the inadequacies of its
economie system, mak.es quite sure that the "military" sector remains independent of developments
in the "civil" sector of the economy. They have concentrated there the very best of their technicians
and scientists with a system that rewards only the people engaged in that sector. This structure
allows for, and explains, the high rate of innovation in the weapons industry and, vice versa, the
slow transferring of innovations in the civil segment of industry.

Soviet technological developments in the "military" field, including, for instance, space research,
have not lagged behind Western developments, and have occasionally taken the lead, quite aside
from the level of East-West trade. From Sputnik onward, the experience of the last two or three
decades is there to prove it.

Yet experts and Western governments still think that a certain number of high-technology
products-such as electronic equipment and miniaturization-must be excluded from East-West trade,
because they have a recognizable strategie value, being directly usable for arms production. Western
governments have agreed on lists of "forbidden" goods, which vary from time to time. I happen to
believe this policy is correct, insofar as these lists are kept under constant review and these
prohibitions can in fact be rigorously enforced. It represents, in fact, a "safety rule" that it is
1h fhe fasi anatySis, fhe questlon ls ohe or juogmem. li ffie West were fo Muse fo build pfaniS iri
the U.S.S.R. orto supply the technology and machinery to make them workable, would the result
be that a number of the most skilled Soviet technicians would have to be diverted from military
work in order to meet the minimum demands of the Soviet people? This seems to be the conclusion
of much American argument. To me it seems dubious. I am concerned that the result might be,
instead, not only a cooling of officia! relations and a tendency to retum to an irrevocable cold war
mentality on both sides but, within the Soviet economy, a belt-tightening and partial retum to the
Stalinist era, justified to the Russian people by the demonstrated hostility of the West.

VI

But could East-West trade be used to influence and condition Soviet policies? This is the
assumption on which the Kissinger "linkage" theory was obviously based, on the premise that the
Soviets are more interested than the West in economie relations and, therefore, can be made to pay
for trade deals in that delicate currency called "politica! good behavior." It is also the apparent
assumption behind the measures taken by the Carter Administration in response to the Soviet
occupation of Afghanistan, including the cancellation of grain exports (above the annua! levels
guaranteed in the 1975 agreement on this subject), the tightening of agreed export controls in
military-related areas, and, in addition, the attempt to limit ali forms of technology-bearing
exports. The Carter Administration has asked its NATO allies to join in ali three of these measures,
and there has in fact been a high level of agreement on the fìrst two-Europe is not replacing the
denied American grain (though Argentina, alas, may have done so to a very great extent, and to the
tune of greatly increased ties to the U.S.S.R.), and tightened controls on military-related items
seem to be on the way to being accepted.

But the attempt to limit technology-bearing exports has not met with a similar favorable response,
leading to the suspicion that there may even be a converse premise-that Europe, at least, is more
interested in East-West trade than the Soviet Union, so that the Soviet leaders are in a position to
demand from West European nations their own form of "political good behavior." In its extreme
fonn, the fear is expressed that Western Europe may become-or perhaps has already become-
"Finlandized," which presumably means net objecting to Soviet politica! or military actions no
matter how threatening.

I believe the situation is not as simple as either of these two premises would suggest. I know of no
instance in which the behavior of the parties involved could be taken as proof that there really was
any sign of political-economic dependence of one on the other. We cannot presume that we could
have the other side in our power by withholding Western trade. As a matter of fact, Mr. Kissinger's
"linkage" theory never worked because political and economie interdependencies are much more
complex, and the linkage, to be effective, calls for a much longer time span than is available in an
emergency. The Soviet Union almost certainly cannot be induced to moderate its extemal behavior
by the withholding of trade by the West, or at least will net do so in any case where it believes it is
protecting or advancing major Soviet interests.
Curtain-just to m.aintain tracie with the East.

Yet there can be no question that Western European nations view the issue of reducing or cutting
off trade with the East with substantially greater concerns than are felt in the United States for the
impact on their own societies. I have already mentioned the fact that significant energy supplies are
now imported by Western Europe from the Soviet Union. More broadly, though this type of
calculation has a large margin of uncertainty, it is estimated that about 300,000 jobs in Europe are
directly dependent on trade with the Eastern bloc. And indirect jobs of course are far higher. lt
should not be difficult for America (although it apparently is) to understand that a cut in the level
of trade relations with the Soviet bloc is, in economie and social terms, much more costly for
Europe than for America itself. Although the amount of tracie between the European Community
and the COMECON countries is fairly modest and would seem therefore not likely to produce
serious consequences should that amount be sharply reduced or eliminated, the cut will be mainly
concentrated in particular segments of the mechanical industry, with much more sizable negative
effects. Actually, the real damage suffered would be much greater: the "cost and benefìt" assessment
of such a strategy is therefore bound to have quite different results for America than it has for its
allies. This fact ought to be taken into consideration before, rather than after, sudden changes in
policy are decided by the American Adrninistration.

Thus, one can easily understand that the adequacy of the instrument of economie retaliations
against Soviet rnisdeeds, as cornpared with other possible actions, is bound to appear quite different
to the minds of American and European decision-mak.ers. Of course, ali this does not deal with
rnatters of loyalty. Rather, it deals with different realities and perceptions which seern not to be
taken adequately into account. lt is very difficult for the instrument of economie retaliation to
work, especially over short terms, unless the party one wants to hit is in a condition of particular
weakness. It is even more difficult whenever the retaliating party is itself badly hit, not only in
terms of jobs, energy supplies, and similar tangible elements, but in terms of the very large human
stak.e that one country in particular, the Federai Republic of Germany, has in the continuation of an
Ostpolitik that has made a tremendous difference to communication and movement among the
German people as a whole.

In short, even as Western Europe has greater trade ties than the United States with the Soviet
Union and other East European countries, so it necessarily takes far more seriously the impact of
any impairment of those ties.

But by the same token Europeans may have a greater "feel" for what trade with the West is doing, in
the long run, to the attitudes and felt desires not only of the Soviet people but of Soviet leaders.
The conviction that over the long run the influence in these key respects is a positive one could, of
course, yield if the Soviet Union took an action such as I have suggested above. Afghanistan may
bave brought us all very dose to that point, but most Europeans are not yet persuaded that it has
been reached.
or EasE-Wesf fradé. I his outline iS meanE as a cohifibutlon fo adébate whicn oughE robe urgently
undertaken in both governmental and non-governmental circles.

1. Tracie, according to Western values and culture, is, in itself, a good thing, and we should pursue it
with the Eastern bloc as well, unless there are compelling reasons to the contrary.

2. The idea that Soviet global or domestic policies can be madified and improved through trade
"linkage" has been proved unrealistic. One cannot reduce the expansionist impact of Soviet policies
by withholding trade. On the contrary, one might even increase it.

3. The claim that Soviet policies will become more moderate and peaceful as a result of a higher
leve! of trade and economie interdependence with the West is also beyond proof. Yet, experience
tells us that the growth of trade strengthens forces and individuals inside Soviet society which are
recognizably committed to détente with the West and to peaceful policies.

4. The danger that economie interdependence may bring about the "Finlandization" of Europe and
the West remains, for the time being, purely a theoretical possibility, nota reality. The true danger
of "Finlandization" was actually removed when Western Europe became a powerful economie
community, strongly embedded into the fabric of international trade.

Of course, it is of paramount importance to have a comprehensive vision of needs and problems of


all partners of the Western alliance to ensure that none of them will ever fall into some sort of
dependence on the Soviet bloc. In the field of energy or rare raw materials, for instance, it is
dramatically important that common policies be agreed upon in order to reduce Western
dependence on any single source of such vital resources. The present overall levels of trade with the
East are far from making our economies, with their wide variety of world trade relations,
dangerously dependent on Eastem trade. The "safety limits" of trade with the Eastern countries
have not been reached, so far. But businessmen feel the urgent need for a multilateral body capable
of determining when those "safety limits" may be dangerously dose.

5. A certain number of well-defined areas of strategie importance ought to be excluded from East-
West trade, in order to deprive the other side of goods which could be used for military purposes.

6. A distinction should be made between trade with the Soviet Union and trade with the Eastern
bloc countries. Some of the political arguments being currently advanced in the West against
excessive dependence of our economies on trade with the Soviet Union could be used in favor of an
increasing level of tracie between some of the Soviet Union's European allies and the West. Should
two separate sets of rules be devised?

7. Any strategy agreed upon in the matter of trade with the Soviet bloc must either be a common
policy for ali Western countries, or it will be no policy at all. H the rules of the game are not
respected by ali (the present rules very often are not), no policy will prove workable. (For examplet
it is known that the recent Paris agreements on government-assisted credit aids have been overtly
violated by some countries just a few hours after the signature.)
political instruments for achieving this new kind of coordinated policies do not seem to exist. It is
unthinkable that it is just up to the businessmen to fill up such a vacuum.

9. Unilateral actions of any kind, creating a fait accompli and facing others with an apparent choice
between "loyalty" and "vital interest" are dangerous far the unity of the Western alliance. The lack
of a comprehensive Western strategy today is evident: so long as the situation remains so, the prime
beneficiary will be the U.S.S.R Necessary rules should be established that take into account the
relative exposures to risks of the individual members, both in economie and political terms.

Businessmen cannot be expected to define such strategies. They can only be asked, in a well-
ordered democratic society, to pursue proper economie aims and to respect guidances agreed upon
by governments. These governments must, however, tak.e into account the principle of equality of
opportunity far all, and recognize the values of a free-market economy.

1 Quoted in George F. Kennan, Russia and the West Under Lenin and Stalin, Boston: Little,
Bro"Wtt,1961,p. 187.

3 Ibid., p. l272.

5 The term "Western countries" was used by the compilers of these figures to include the members
of the Organization for Economie Cooperation and Development {OECD), less Turkey but with
the additions of Israel and South Africa. The share of these last two countries in East-West trade is
of course minimal.
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Home • Argomenti >Collcorrenu. e me rati • KenneAh AnvN, Il rtwfuzlonarlo della teoria

CDNCOIUWllA E MERCATI 5CIJOIA E UNlllBISITA

Kenneth Arrow, il rivoluzionario della teoria


Ol.03.17
AndreaPrat

Commenta

Kenneth Am>wè stato un gigi11ltt tkll'«onomia, è tuttora ilpiù giovaM 'tlindto~ del ~mio Nobel per l'economia. È stato un pioniere di
molte disc/pi/ne e Il suo lavoro ha rivoluzionato Il modo di f.ue teoria. La sua ricerca all'Insegna di /nesaurlblle curiosità e flgorosa onestit
Intellettuale.

un grande contributo alla schnza economica

Il 21 febbraio si~ spento Kenneth ArrtM. ~stato un gigante dell'economia -tuttora il più giovane vincitore del premio Nobel per l'economia..
Lo vtnse a 51 anni conJohn Hlcks per Il suo contributo alla teoria dell'equlllb11o generale. Avrebbe meritato senz'altro un altro premio da
solo per il teorema dell'impossibilità e probabilmente un altro per la sua teoria della crescita endogena, o per lo studio delle asimmetrie
lnformatlvt, o per Il suo contrtbuto alla teol1a del merca'lt tlnanzlarl. Almeno quattro suol studenti - John Harsanyl, Erlc Maskln, Roger
Myerson, Mlcha.el Spence - hanno ricevuto Il premio Nobel.
Tuttavia, l'Influenza di ArrtYN sulla scienza economica va oltre la somma di questi contributi. Il suo lavoro ha rivoluzionato Il modo di fare
teoria. Prima di lul I modelll er.uio usati prevalentemente per formalizzare le relazioni tra val1ablll In maniera concisa e per dimostrare altre
relazioni da poter successivamente testare empiricamente o utilizzare a scopi predlttM e normativi. ArrtYN Invece ha dimostrato che la teol1a
pub fare di più: pub svelare Importanti fenomeni economici che non riuscivamo a riconoscere senza la guida del modello giusto. Una volta
Identificati, questi fenomeni cl permettono di spiegare la realtà In maniera più soddisfacente, di elaborare nuovt modelll più calzanti e di
usare megllo l'evtdenza empll1ca.
Cosl, per esempio, dopo avere giocato un ruolo centrale nello sviluppo del due teoremi fondamentali dell'economia del benessere (efflclenu.
del mercati concorrenziali e ruolo della dlstrtbuzlone lnlzlale delle 11sorse), e mentre Il resto degli economisti teorici celebrava e raffinava
questi belllsslml risultati, ArrCN/ lnlzlb a chiedersi qual era li loro punto più debole.
se f'ossimo riusciti a creare una struttura concettuale così perfetta come la teoria dell'equilibrio generale, ~probabile che molti di noi
sarebbero stati tentati di tr.ucorrere il resto della vita professionale ad ammirar1a (e a farla ammirare ad altn"). Atraw, invece, appena finito
di costruire l'edlflclo, si mise a cercare Il modo migliore di farlo cadere. ~una profonda lezione per tutti gli economisti, e probabllmente per
allTI scienziati, soclall e non - una lezione di curiosità sclentlflca e di onestà Intellettuale.
Arraw trovi> Il punto debole del teoremi del benessere In un fenomeno a cui era stata dedicata poca attenzione: lasimmetria Informativa tra
agenti: che cosa sua:ede se A non osserva tutto quello che B sa o tutto quello che C fa?
In uno straordlnal1o articolo del 1963, Intitolato •uncertalnty and the Welfare Economlcs of Medicai Care•, Ken Arff1W mostra come la
presenza di selezione avversa (A non osserva tutto quello che Bsa) possa rendere un mercato Inefficiente, riducendo Il numero di
transazioni e Il benessere di chi Y1 partecipa. E lo dimostra In un contesto, quello della assicurazione medica, che è ancora di grande
attualità. Obamacare va Interpretata come un tentativo di riparare Il "falllmento del mercato" creato dalla selezione avversa. Il premio Nobel
del 2001 a George Akerlof, Mlchael Spence e Joe Stlglltz è un riconoscimento dell'Importanza di questo tipo di modelll nello spiegare una
serie di Inefficienze di mercato e nel proporre rimedi contrattuali e leglslatM.

Curiosità e onestà Intellettuale

In quello stesso articolo, Arrfl'N discute anche l'azzardo morale (A non osserva tutto quello che C fa). Anche questa parte è l'Inizio di
qualcosa di molto Importante: Il premio Nobel del 2016 a Ollver Hart e Bengt Holmstrom per li loro conttlbuto alla teo11a del contratti è Il
coronamento di cinquanta anni di ricerca sulle Istituzioni che si sviluppano per ridurre l'effetto dell'azzardo morale.
Arraw, che era nato a New York nel 1921, partecipò alla seconda guerra mondiale nel servizio di mete.crologla, utilizzando modelll
matematici per predire le condizioni del tempo sulla Manica In funzione della sbarco alleato In Normandia. Ottenne Il dottorato presso la
Columbia Unlversltv sotto la guida di Harold Hotelllng (autore del modello di concorrenza spazlale). Trascorse gran parte della sua carriera
accademica a Stanford, eccezion fatta per nove anni a Harvard, a cavallo tra gli anni Sessanta e gll anni Settanta.
Sempre la cul1osltà sclentltlca e l'onestà Intellettuale avevano portato Am:rw alla flne degli anni Quaranta al famosissimo teorema
dell'lmposslbllltà. che dimostra che non esiste un modo universale e raglonevole di determinare le preferenze della società sulla base delle
preferenze del cittadini. ArrtYN, che si professò sempre un simpatizzante socialista, era partito cercando di modellare la società perfetta.
Non rtuscendo a trovare un modello soddisfacente, lnlzlb a chiedersi se tale società esistesse veramente. Il teorema dell'lmposslbllltà è la
rtsposta, che Ancsw accettò suo malgrado, e che diede origine alla teoria delle scelte sociali, una delle tante discipline di cui è considerato un
pioniere.
Tutd coloro che hanno conosciuto Ken sono rimasti colpltl, oltre che dalle sue dote lntellettuall, dal suo entusiasmo e dalla sua generosità.
Ho avuto l'enorme fortuna di aver1o avuto come relatore di dottorato a Stanford negll anni Novanta. Dopo l'Iniziale terrore all'Idea di
rivolgermi a un mostro sacro dell'economia, scoprii una persona spiritosa, gentile e straordinariamente umile, che non voleva parlare dei
suoi successi e preferiva ascoltare con pazienza le idee confuse di un dottorando italiano e dare consigli che si rivelavano sempre corretti.

Commenta
Stampa

In questo articolo si parla di: Arrow, equilibrio economico generale, Kenneth Arrow, teorema di Arrow

BIO DELL'AUTORE

ANDREA PRAT

Altri articoli di Andrea Prat


Apoailype tflen
The lessons of violence and inequality through the ages
Only camstrophe truly redua!s inequality, acrording tD a hi.storical sw-vey

ID Ffom the prfnt edltlon I Books and arts Mar2nd2017

Tbe Gwatleftller: VioJence an41be HistDIJof~lmm.1be SbllleÀff/!tD 1be


Tw ''rJllntOmtotyByW'illter Scheidel Prina!ton UniYersity Press; so4 pages; $35 and
!1:1.95.

AS Asuppller of momenwy rellef, the Great Depresslon seems an unllkel.y candidate. But
when it turns up on page 363 ofwalter Scheldel's "The Great Levelet' lt feeb oddly welcome.
Jloronce-and it is only once, forno 01her Il!a!Ssion in American history boalltli the same
achievement-real wages rise an.d the incomes of the most affluent fall to a degree that has a
"powerful impact on economie inequallty". Yes, ltbrought wldespread suffering and dreadful
mlsery. BUtltdld notbrlngdeath to mllllons, andln thatltstands out.
If that counts as relief, you can begin to imagine the scale of the woe that comes before and
after. Mr Scheidel, a Vienna-born historian now at Stanford University, puts the discussion of
increased inequality found in the recent work of Thomas Piketty, Anthony Atkinson, Branko
Milanovic and others into a broad historical context and examines the circumstances under
which it can be reduced.

Having assembled a huge range of scholarly literature to produce a survey that starts in the
Stone Age, he finds that inequality within countries is almost always either high or rising,
thanks to the ways that politica! and economie power buttress each other and both pass down
generations. It does not, as some bave suggested, carry within it the seeds of its own demise.

Only four things, Mr Scheidel argues, cause large-scale levelling. Epidemics and pandemics
cando it, as the Black Death did when it changed the relative values of land and labour in late
medieval Europe. So can the complete collapse of whole states and economie systems, as at
the end of the Tang dynasty in China and the disintegration of the western Roman Empire.
When everyone is pauperised, the rich lose most. Total revolution, of the Russian or Chinese
sort, fits the bill. So does the 2oth-century sibling of such revolutions: the war of mass-
mobilisation.

And that is about it. Financial crises increase inequality as often as they decrease it. Politica!
reforms are mostly ineffectual, in part because they are often aimed at the balance of power
between the straightforwardly wealthy and the politically powerful, rather than the lot of the
have-nots. Land reform, debt relief and the emancipation of slaves will not necessarily buck
the trend much, though their chances of doing so a bit increase if they are violent. But
violence does not in itself lead to greater equality, except on a massive scale. "Most popular
unrest in history", Mr Scheidel writes, "failed to equalise at all."

Perhaps the most fascinating part of this book is the careful accumulation of evidence
showing that mass-mobilisation warfare was the defining underlying cause of the
unprecedented decrease in inequality seen across much of the Western world between 1910
and 1970 (though the merry old Great Depression lent an unusual helping band). By
demanding sacrifice from all, the deployment of national resources on such a scale under
such circumstances provides an unusually strong case for soaking the rich.

Income taxes and property taxes rose spectacularly during both world wars (the top income-
tax rate reached 94 % in America in 1944, with property taxes peaking at 77% in 1941). Physical
damage to capi tal goods slashed the assets of the wealthy, too, as did post-war inflations. The
wars also drove up membership in trade unions-one ofthe war-related factors that played a
part in keeping inequality low fora generation after 1945 before it started to climb backup in
the 198os.

The 2oth century was an age of increasing democratisation as well. But Mr Scheidel sees this
as another consequence of its total wars. He follows Max Weber, one of the founders of
sociology, in seeing democracy as a price elites pay for the co-operation of the non-
aristocratic classes in mass warfare, during which it legitimises deep economie levelling.
Building on work by Daron Acemoglu and colleagues, Mr Scheidel finds that democracy has
no clear effect on inequality at other times. (Anice parallel to this 2oth-century picture is
provided by classical Athens, a democracy which also saw comparatively low levels of income
inequality-and which was also built on mass-mobilisation, required by the era's naval
warfare.)

Catastrophic levellings will be less likely in future. Pandemics are a real risk, but plagues
similar in impact to the Black Death are not. Nor are total revolutions and wars fought over
years by armies of millions. On top of that, since the Industrial Revolution general prosperity,
regardless of inequality, has risen. And in past decades global inequality has fallen.

Good news in general, but news which leaves readers who would like to see significantly less
unequal individual economies in a bit of a pickle. Futile though Mr Scheidel thinks it may
prove, attempts to ease inequality democratically through redistributive policies and the
empowerment of labour at least show no signs of doing actual harm. They may, indeed, keep
the further growth of inequality in check, but they can hardly dent the direction of change.
And they may have opportunity costs; if history provides no support for thinking that deep,
peaceful reduction of inequality is possible, perhaps progressives should set themselves
other tasks.

There are two other possibilities. One is to note that historical circumstances change. As Mr
Scheidel shows, the 2oth century was qui te different from all those that carne before. Is it not
possible that another less horrible but equally profound transformation in the way that
people and nations get along with each other, or fail to, is yet to come? If, for example,
increasingly economically important non-human intelligences decided that they would
rather not be owned by anyone, thus in effect confiscating themselves from their owners,
could that not make a difference?

The other possibility is that some may see civilisational collapse as a price worth paying for
the Utopia they might build in the rubble-or may just like to see the world burn. Individuals
and small groups can dream of nuclear- or biotechnologically-mediated violence today on a
scale that was inconceivable in the past. Wealth may ineluctably concentrate itself aver time;
the ability to destroy does not.

This article appeared in the Books and arts section of the print edition under the headline ''Apocalypse then"
Thursdey Mar 2, 2017

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WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING

Sessions and Russia: The U.S. attomey general and former adviser to Tnrmp's
presidential campaign has recused himself from the federal investigation into
Russia's alleged interference with the U.S. election. After last night's revelation that-
contrary to Session's statements during his confirmation process-he was in
contact with Russia's ambassador during the campaign, Sessions faced mounting
pressure from both Dem and GOP lawmakers to resign or recuse himself. Though the
story seems to parallel the events leading to Mike Flynn's firing last month, Trump has
expressed "total" confidence in Sessions, so there's no indication he'll step down-but
if late-breaking news strikes again, you can find our latest coverage bere.

Finding a Pian: As Congressional Republicans come close to finalizing their bill to


repeal and replace Obamacare, Senator Rand Paul went looking today for the draft
legislation, only to find that it's still under wraps. He's not alone in wondering what the
bill will contain: On The Late Show last night, Stephen Colbert and Patrick Stewart
satirized the seemingly endless wait with a Samuel Beckett-inspired skit. But if
health-care policy is hard to find, the people who need coverage are much less so: The
authors of a new study found that medicai debt in the South is
disproportionately high.

Genetic Genius: The future of data storage might be in DNA: Two scientists in
New York have successfully encoded a movie, a computer virus, an Amazon gift card,
and even more data within the same molecule that encodes the blueprint for life.
Elsewhere, a team in Russia has completed a discovery decades in the
making: sequencing the DNA of an Ice-.Age squirrel that Gulag prisoners found in
1946. That team effort spanned not only centwies but species; the scientists got help
fromafox.

SNAPSHOT
Melissa Eich, a speeeh pathologist, pra.ctices signing the word '"thank you" with a
second-grade student in Charlottesvill.e, VD"ginia, OD Novemher 17. 2016. Melissa's
husband, photographer Matt Bich, documented herworkclay as part of our series of
photo essays OD the.American workpJace, More photos here.

EVE!jllj8 RE.AD

Emily :Esfahani Smith on the psychiatrist William Breitbart, who "lives at the edge of
llfe and death":

As chairman of the Depa.rtment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Memoria!


S1oan Kettering Caneet" Center in New York, Breitbart speciali:res in end-of-life care
for terminally ili cancer patients. For many ofhis patients, tbe most pressing
question isn't when they'll die or how paiDful death will be. Rather, irs what makes
life meaningful. 'lhey are in search of a meaning that cannot be destroyed by death.

ls there oDe?

Breitbart has spent tbe better part ofhi.s career trying to answer that question. His
ground-breaking research shows tbat while the specter of death often Jeads people
to conclude that their lives are meaningless, it can also be a catalyst for them to
work out, as tbey Dever bave before, the meaning of their lives.
Keep reading bere, as Smith recounts how Breitbart's patients find meaning in the
face of death. And go bere for a series of reader stories on how their loved ones died
and how they themselves would like to go.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

1. In 1789, Parisian women marched to Versailles and brought back


the king to sign the Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

2. Drug convictions account for about _______ percent of the population in


state prisons.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

3. To help spread its strict form of Islam in the nation of _______, Saudi Arabia
has spent millions of dollars to establish and maintain a free university, several Arabic
language institutes, over 100 boarding schools, and more than 150 mosques.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

ANSWERS: 7,000; 16; INDONESIA

URBAN DEVELOPMENTS

Our partner site CityLab explores the cities of the future and investigates the biggest
ideas and issues facing city dwellers around the world. Adam Sneed shares three of
today's top stories:

Whatever happens to the Environmental Protection Agency, it has a powerful


legacy in the urban environment. That couldn't be clearer in these scenes of wbat
cities looked like before the EPA.

The steady marcb of gentrification isn't a foregone conclusion. For proof, just
look to East L.A.'s Boyle Heights, the neighborbood that went to war against
gentrifiers.
Bflre parldng, stacb ofhooks, artwork, and a rooft:op garden. No, it's not
a hipster cafe-it's the world.'s best bus stop.

For more updates from the urban world, subserlbe to CltyLab's daily newsletta.

AMERICA BY AIR

Wayne clelivers an overhea.d view of the great N'uigara Falls:

My nephew, Joe Burkhart, took tbis photo on bis iPhone ss from our 1964 Piper
P2.8-235 en mute from Massachusetts (KPSF) to Michigan (KPLN) inAugust 2015.
Buffalo Approach [radar that controls regional traffic up to roughly 5000 feet] is
very helpful with the sightseeing corridorwb.en they're not too busy. lt's a beautiful
view of a great American resource.

See manymore aerial photos from readers he:re, and send us your own
via hello@theatlantlc.eom (guidelines here).

READER RE8POH8E
Continuing our series of persona} stories of your first experience with a
firearm, this reader recalls the dark history ofher family's revolver:

My first experience with "the gun" was when my grandfather killed himself with it
when I was 16. My sister, dad, grandfather, and I hadjust had breakfast and
everything seemed normal to me. I didn't even jump when I heard the shot because
we lived out in the country, and people were always shooting at something.

But that event led me to learn the history of "the gun." It had been used 40 years
earlier by my grandmother's first husband in a shoot-out with the police, after
she'd called them to protect her from his drunken abusiveness. So this .38
Detective Special had caused the death of both her husbands.

"The gun" was left to my mother who, at age 91, had it cleaned and bought bullets
for it. As her behavior became more erratic with dementia, my husband and I were
able to get it away from her. If I possibly can, I will bury it with her.

Read more stories bere.

VERBS

Future arrives, failure fascinates, Conan connects, chili dogs unite.

The Atlantic Daily is written by Rosa Inocencio Smith. To contact us,


email hello@theatlantic.com.
Friday Mar 3, 2017

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WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING

The White House and Russia: As fallout continues over Jeff Sessions's contact with
Russia's ambassador, the nation's foreign minister dismissed the controversy as a
"witch hunt." But such a climate of heightened anxiety may be precisely the
problem: Trump's repeatedly d.isproven denials of contact between bis campaign
and the country accused of interfering with the election undermine the public's trust no
matter how innocent such contact may be. Intelligence officers under Obama even hid
evidence from their Russia investigation in a secret wiki for fear the incoming
administration would sweep it under the rug. But for all the U.S. politicians who fear the
influence of an authoritarian Russia, there are others who see radical Islamic terrorism
as a much greater threat-leaving American leaders split on which ideological war
towage.

Budget Batties: President Trump is due to send an officiai outline of his budget to the
Senate within the next couple of weeks, and it's not likely to go over well: Though
he'll need the support of some Dems plus the whole GOP to get his massive increase in
defense spending approved, he's already getting pushback even from some Republican
leaders. But at least the U.S. isn't alone in suffering discord within its ruling
party; here's a list of countries in the same predicament. Should Congress need some
advice, we asked the readers of our Politics & Policy Daily newsletter what they would
do if they were in charge of the federai budget. Check out their responses, and sign
up for the newsletter bere.

Bomb Threats Suspect: The FBI has arrested Juan Thompson, a former reporter
at The Interceptwho was fired in 2016 for fabricating stories, in connection with some
of the recent bomb threats made against J ewish organizations. Thompson has been
linked to eight specific threats, but there's no indication he's responsible for the broader
trend; instead, he appears to have been imitating ongoing threats as part of a campaign
to harass his ex-girlfriend. Here's what we know.

SNAPSHOT
Acatyawns near the Eyup Sultan Masque in Istanbul, Turkey, on February 27,
2017. See more of the week's best photos bere. (Ozan Kose / AFP / Gett;y)

EVE!jllj8 RE.AD

Georgina Voss goes insi.de the lnc:lus'bythat's bulldlng Trump's America:

lt's a colei January afternoon outside the Las Vegas Convention Center.... rm at
World ofConcrete, the concrete and masonryindustry's South by Southwest-a
five-day showthat has summoned more than 60,000 attendees. Concrete takes
many forms here-thick liquid, solid blocks, even slender decorative ribbons. The
riDk in front of me is poured concrete, and the macbjnes are riding trowels wh.ose
whirring blades smooth down concrete tloors into a mirrored sheen....

This is also the week of the presidential inauguration. ••• Trump paved. bis pathway
to the White House with pledges to build roads, hospitals, and, of course, a •great
great wall." So now rm staring at riding trowels in an effort to answer what I soon
realize is not an easy question. How do Trump's high-octane and often contentious
campaign promises sit with the people who will actually be doing the building?

Keep readlng bere for what Voss finds out.


WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

Between 1980 and 2013, the share of American babies born to unmarried mothers
1.
went from 18 to _______ percent.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

2. In the new horror film Get Out, the protagonist (played by Daniel Kaluuya) tells much
of the story using only his _ _ _ _ __

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

3. Researchers have found a promising way to fight antibiotic-resistant superbugs in a


common household seasoning: _ _ _ _ _ __

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

ANSWERS: 41, EYES, SALT

POEM OF THE WEEK

From our January 1861 issue, "Paul Revere's Ride" by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
(wbo would bave been 210 this week):

So through the night rode Paul Revere;


And so through the night went his cry of alarm
To every Middlesex village and farm, -
A cry of defiance, and not of fear, -
A voice in the darkness, a knock at the door,
And a word that shall echo forevermore!

Read the full poem bere, and more on how it's echoed through history bere.

AMERICA BY AIR
Area.der, Vasudha Gidugn, a.dds a new state to our serles of ae:rlal photos-West
VJ.rginia:

When I fly, I like to get the window seat, especially on long fligbts when I know
we•re going to be f1ying aver interesting landscapes. Hills end mountains are a
particularlyfavorite of mine. When I took this photo, I knewwe were near
Shenandoah National Park. I couldn't get that, but then I saw these interesting
rocky formations end discovered what they were later.

What Vasudba spotted was Seneea Rocks, a popular piace for rock climbers in the
Monongahela National Forest and one of the most scenic attractions in West VJ.rginia.
That brings usto seven U.S. states not covered in America by.Air out of the 50 total: cr.
GA, MS, NM, ND, and Rl. lf you bave a good aerial photo above one of them, please
send it our way: hello@theatlantlc.com (guidelines here).
READER RESPONSE

How has the internet affected your creativity? Diane writes:

The promise of digitai technology was: spinning piles of straw into useful pieces of
gold.

My reality is: looking for golden needles in a giant haystack of unusable straw.

I spend so much time looking for the few things actually useful to my project, my
writing, my daily info needs, and by the end of the day I feel like I've wasted so
much time and effort sorting through useless crap. And the pile of useless keeps
getting bigger and bigger, like a bad dream.

More reader responses here-including some tips for productive distraction. And
check back bere on Monday for the next discussion topic in our "Question Your
Answers" series.

VERBS

Hunger sated, rivals hated, twins tested, software shared.

The Atlantic Daily is written by Rosa Inocencio Smith. To contact us,


email hello@theatlantic.com.
Tuesday Feb 28, 2017

SHARE PiEWSLETTER

0 0 0
WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING

The President's Speech: Tonight at 9 EST, Donald Trump is scheduled to


address Congress about his plans for the federai budget (follow our coverage on our
Politi.es page). The budget will reportedly include a major increase in military
spending, offset by cuts that spare Socia! Security and Medicaid-good news for
Trump's constituency of older white voters, though Dem demographics and GOP
lawmakers will be dissatisfied. The conservatives, though, aren't likely to push
back. So, does that mean Trump has succeeded in making Washington bend to his
agenda? Now that his first month in office is over, Molly Hall evaluates how he's
doing so far.

Backlash to Backlash: After Trump's election and his controversial policies sparked
protests across the country, GOP legislators in multiple states have proposed bills aimed
at curbing such demonstrations. Much of the legislation hinges on arguments that
protests cause danger and disorder, and new scientific evidence shows that nonviolent
protest is most effective. Meanwhile, scientists themselves have become newly
politically active, leading some to worry their outspokenness will damage their
credibility-but a new study suggests that isn't really the case.

Other Eruptions: Less than a week after scientists announced the discovery of seven
potentially habitable exoplanets, a new study indicates that the habitable zone of
outer space could be even larger: Volcanoes could keep some planets warm enough
to support liquid water, and life. Back on Earth, however, volcanoes pose a danger to
humans-and though the U.S. is among the world's most volcanically active countries,
its system for watching and predicting eruptions leaves a lot to be desired.

SNAPSHOT
An untitl.ed photo posstblytaken in South River, New Jersey, in Febrlwy 1936 and
defaced witb a hole punch. Roy Stryker, head of tbe Farm Securit;y Infonnation's
lnformation Division, used tbis metbod of vetoiDg work from tbe agency's
photographers throughout tbe 193os-resulting in some surreal images. See more
holes punehed. through hfstory he:re. (Carly Mydans / Llbrary ofCongress)

EVE!jllj8 RE.AD

lan Bogost on the exbaustion tbat comes from a oompulslve obsesslon wlth
smartphones:

Years of odious abuse on services like 'IWitter and Reddit bave


finally :mesta.sta.slze into resigned admission. 'lhe logie of amptuying
inf'ormation based on popularity, as Google and Facebook do, has finally revealed
its obvlous downsldes. The demand of constant, unceasing attention from apps
like Snapchat and games like Candy Crush Saga has begun to fee1 like the unpaid
labor it always was.

Foryears, internet-driven, mobile computing technologywas heralded as either


angel or devil. Only recently has it become possible to admit tbat it might be botb.
Cigarettes, after all, produce pleasure mm as they slowly kill.
Given the rising angst of a society run by technology, Nokia might have picked the
perfect time to introduce an antidote to the smartphone.

Keep reading bere, as lan outlines how Nokia's new "dumbphone" model could
foretell an alternate technological future.

Have the distractions of your smartphone-or other internet technology-sapped your


creativity? Or has the web created new ways to nurture new ideas? We're debating that
question this week in a new reader discussion series. Check out some answers from our
archives bere, and then tell us about your own experience
via bello@theatlantic.com.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

1. In 2015, _ _ _ _ _ _ _ people lived in poverty in America's suburbs-over 3


million more than the number of impoverished residents in cities.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

2. Mahershala Ali, the first Muslim actor to win an Academy Award, follows a sect of the
faith that is outlawed in the nation of - - - - - - -

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

3. So far, only _______ people-all American men-have walked on the moon.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

ANSWERS: 16 MILL/ON, PAKISTAN, 12

URBAN DEVELOPMENTS

Our partner site CityLab explores the cities of the future and investigates the biggest
ideas and issues facing city dwellers around the world. Adam Sneed shares three of
today's top stories:

Housing prices are surging because there aren't enough homes being built where
they're needed most. Underneath that trend is deeper problem: a staggering
productivity crisis in the construction industry.
Transit systema across the U.S. are losing riders. There's any number of culprits,
from bad service to cheap oil to the rise ofUber. Where are those riders going, and
what cm cities doto w.in them baek?

lf Donald Trump is ready to bulld that waD, he's got plenty of w:i1ling partners in
the private sector: So far, more than 180 architecture and engjneering firms
bave bld. for the federai. contract (and only a few appear to be prmks).

For more updates from the urban world, subscrlbe to CltyLab's claily newsletter.

AMERICA BY AIR

Roberto, a reader in Georgia, sends an otherworldly image:

This is the Crescent Dunes Solar Bnergy project, in the Nevada desert, as seen on a
flight from Denverto San Francisco last November. I hadjust heard about it OD
NPR when I sa.w it right under our flight path. (lf I hadn't listened, I would bave DO
idea what itwas.)

More on tbat solar plant (which uses molten salt!) and many more readerphotos here.

RE.AllER RE8P0Jj8E
How will history remember your lifetime? Readers on the TAD discussion group
explored that question today after trying out our new Life Timeline feature, which
gives you a personalized timeline ofhow historical events line up with your life so far.
One reader wrote:

I think my lifetime will be remembered in part for the extraordinary achievements


in technology. The internet and robotic technology developed in the last 20 years
has fundamentally changed how humans interact with each other and the world
around them. People my age are right now developing technology that once was the
stuff of science fiction. I don't know if it'll lead us down a great path. We may be
remembered as the generation that went too far.

I'm part of that generation too: My timeline tells me I'm one of the first people who's
never lived in a world without texting, and that my life can be divided in two halves-
before and after Facebook. But history changes constantly, and in a few years the
defining moments of my lifetime may look completely different. What are yours? Find
your own timeline here-and if one of your milestones sparks a detailed memory or
particularly surprises you, feel free to tell us about it via hello@theatlantic.com.

VERBS

Finance redefined, doctors discriminate, bird experts bicker, love lesson learned.

The Atlantic Daily is written by Rosa Inocencio Smith. To contact us,


email hello@theatlantic.com.
Wednesdey Mar 1, 2017

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WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING

Trump's Speech, Reviewed: Compared to the combative rhetoric of his campaign,


the president's address to Congress last night struck a surprisingly hopeful tone.
He refrained from digressions such as insults to the press, and in many ways, he
sounded like an ordinary politician. The normalcy of it ali earned him some
glowing reviews-but as David Frum writes, there were still some key elements
missing. And lest past assessments ofTrump's speaking style color our judgment of
him now, James Fallows breaks down the speech as if listening to Trump for the
first time.

Budget Points: Trump didn't offer many policy details in the speech, but he did
mention making health insurance cheaper. The GOP has suggested doing this by scaling
baclc what basic plans are required to cover-but for those who do need more extensive
benefits Oike matemity care or mental-health coverage), insurance would get a lot
more expensive. And that'sjust one potential sticking point: Trump's economie pian,
which also involves major tax cuts and an increase in military spending, has
been divisive within bis own party and could hurt his voter base.

Government Insiders: So, can Trump get Congress to carry out his agenda? He's
been running into legislative roadblocks recently, though he's had some success
charming some of the lawmakers. Meanwhile, his Cabinet is moving slowly toward
completion, most recently with today's confirmation of Ryan Zinke as interior
secretary. But in the State Departm.ent, where numerous key posts are left unfilled,
officials are anxious: The White House has announced that radical foreign-policy
change is coming, but current employees seem to know very little about what's
goingon.

SNAPSHOT
Photographer Michael B. Hardie caught this image of an octopus ricling the back of a
turtle in Hawaii for Smithsonian magazine•s 2016 photo contest. See more of the
flnalf&1B here.

EVElllll8 RE.AD

Emily DeRny on CaMn College, Betsy DeVos's misnnderstood alma mater:

DeVos is nowCalvin's most famous alum, and in recent weeks, the school has
been palnted. in some clrcles both online and in conversation as a conservative,
insular institution that helped spawn a controversial presidential-cabinet member
intent on using public dollars to further religious education. But tbat is a grossly
simplified narrative, and one that obscures the nuances and very real tensions at
theschooL

In more than a do7.en interviews, professors, students, and alumni of ali political
stripes painted a picture of a college where intellectual diversity and thought-
provoking debate are the norm, and where the belief that followers of the Christian
Refonned Churcli, with which the school is affiliated, bave an obligation to engage
with the world a.round them compels both instructors and students to qu.estion
wbat theythink they know.
Keep reading bere, as Emily explores Calvin's history of fierce debate and the
complications of its present.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

1. In the wild, elephants sleep for an average of _______ hours every night.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

2. Because of climate change, spring is starting about _______ days earlier


every decade.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

3. Uber is valued at $_ _ _ _ _ _-but after a month of back-to-back scandals, it


may be heading for a meltdown.

Scroll downfor the answer, or find it here.

ANSWERS: 2, 2.5, 68 BILL/ON

LOOK BACK

Yellowstone National Park was established on this day in 1872. In our Aprii 1898
issue, John Muir described the landscape:

However orderly your excursions or aimless, again and again amid the calmest,
stillest scenery you will be brought to a standstill hushed and awe-stricken before
phenomena wholly new to you. Boiling springs and huge deep pools of purest green
and azure water, thousands of them, are plashing and heaving in these high, cool
mountains as ifa fierce furnace fire were burning beneath each one of them; and a
hundred geysers, white torrents of boiling water and steam, like inverted
waterfalls, are ever and anon rushing up out of the hot, black underworld.

More on Yellowstone from our archives bere. Elsewhere in history: Today marks 100
years since the publication of the Zimmerman Telegram-the leak that belped pusb
tbe U .S. into World War I .

AUSTRALIA BY AIR
So far, our colleetion of aerial photos has been limited to the U.S., but John Muir's
description above of an "inverted waterfall" seemed like a good reason to share tbis
image from reader Chelsea .Attenborougb in Australia:

l've always been fascinated by aeria1 photos (to the point where I DOW bave adrone

to bugger around witb-lnsta. is@chelatt ifyou want to checlt tbem out ... ).
But your submfssion on F'ebruary 13 reminded me of a photo I took on my
iPhone in early 2015 as we were cnming in to land at Melbourne airport alter a trip
to the (Auslralian) Gold Coast.

See manymore aerial photos from read.ers he:re, and send us your own
via hello@theatlantic.oom (guid.elines here).

RE..ADER RE8P0Jj8E

From a midshipman at the NavalAcademywho "thougbtyou migbt be interested in


hearing a rea.ction to the President's speech from an officer in training":
I was profoundly disturbed by the moment surrounding the exaltation of Senior
Chief Owens and his widow. Most news analysis marked it as the highlight of the
speech. Even someone like Van Jones said it "was one ofthe most extraordinary
moments you have ever seen in American politics, period."

The full context of the situation makes this all very disturbing to me. Hours before
the speech, Trump blamed "the generals" for the SEAL's death. The country
lost a highly trained special operator and a multi-million dollar aircraft while at the
same time killing civilians and collecting intelligence of questionable value. Yet
Trump considers questioning the efficacy of the mission to be unAmerican and
disrespectful to the SEAL's memory.

I worry what this means for my friends and those who I will lead. Are we simply
offerings to "American greatness," to be slaughtered on the altar in far-offlands so
our mothers and widows can be glorified on national television in this perverse
ritual in our civic religion? Are we to become the pious, saintly martyrs in Bannon's
crusade against the Mohammedans? Nobody in that room could do anything but
clap.

I think what happened was the full maturation of what Fallows calls "The
Chickenhawk Nation." We will continue to honor veterans with major league
baseball games at the Naval Academy and at the Superbowl, and give the DoD
(their contractors) an increase in the defense budget nearly the equal to the size of
the entire defense budget of Russia. Yet this administration will at best not
rethink American grand strategy in the War on Terror, and at worst, they will
undermine the mechanisms that have prevented major-power war for 70 years.

VERBS

Rocks licked, girls glowed, busyness boasted, Wolverine waves goodbye.

The Atlantic Daily is written by Rosa Inocencio Smith. To contact us,


email hello@theatlantic.com.
aeon

In praise of cash
Cash might be grungy, unfashionable and
corruptible, but it is still a great public good,
important for rich and poor alike
Brett Scott

I recently found myself facing a vending machine in a quiet conidor at the Delft University
of Technology in the N etherlands. I was due to spealc at a conference called 'Reinvent
Money' but, suffering from jetlag and exhaustion, I was on a search for Coca-Cola. The
vending machine had a small digitai interface built by a Dutch company called Payter.
Printed on it was a sentence: 'Contactless payment only.' I touched down my bank card, but
rather than dispensing Coke, it beeped a message: 'Card invalid.' Not ali cards are created
equal, even if you can get one - and not everyone can.

In the economist's imagining of an idealised free market, rational individuals enter into
monetary-exchange contracts with each other for their mutuai benefit. One party- called
the 'buyer' - passes money tokens to another party- called the 'seller' - who in turn gives
real goods or services. So here I am, the tired individua! rationally seeking sugar. Tue
market is before me, fizzy drinks stacked on a shelf, presided aver by a vending machine
acting on behalf of the cola seller. It's an obedient mechanical apparatus that is supposed to
abide by a simple market contract: If you give money to my owner, I will give you a Coke. So
why won't this goddamn machine enter into this contract with me? This is market failure.

To understand this failure, we must first understand that we live with two modes of money.
'Cash' is the name given to our system of physical tokens that are manually passed on to
complete transactions. This first mode of money is public. We might call it 'state money'.
Indeed, we experience cash like a public utility that is 'just there'. Like other public utilities,
it might feel grungy and unsexy - with inefficiencies and avenues for corruption - but it is
in principle open-access. It can be passed directly by the richest of society to the poorest of
society, or vice versa.

Alongside this, we have a separate system of digital fiat money, in which our money tokens
take the form of 'data objects' recorded on a database by an authority- a bank- granted
power to 'keep score' of them for us. We referto this as our bank account and, rather than
physically transporting this money, we 'move' it by sending messages to our banks - for
example, via mobile phones or the internet - asking them to edit the data. Money 'moves'
to your landlord if your two respective banks can agree to edit your accounts, reducing your
score and increasing your landlord's score.

This second mode of money is essentially private, running off an infrastructure collectively
controlled by profit-seeking commerciai banks and a host of private payment intermediaries
- like Visa and Mastercard - that work with them. Tue data inscriptions in your bank
account are not state money. Rather, your bank account records private promises issued to
you by your bank, promising you access to state money should you wish. Having 'f:500' in
your Barclays account actually means 'Barclays PLC promises you access to f:500'. Tue ATM
network is the main way by which you convert these private bank promises - 'deposits' -
into the state cash that has been promised to you. Tue digital payments system, on the other
hand, is a way to transfer - or reassign - those bank promises between ourselves.

This dual system allows us the option to use private digital bank money when buying pizza
at a restaurant, but we can always resort to public state money drawn out of an ATM if the
proprietor's debit card system crashes. This choice seems fair. At different times, we might
find either form more or less useful. As you read this, though, architects of a 'cashless
society' are working to remove the option of resorting to state cash. They wish to completely
privatise the movement of money tokens, pushing banks and private-payments
intermediaries between all interactions of buyers and sellers.

The cashless society- which more accurately should be called the bank-payments society-
is often presented as an inevitability, an outcome of 'natural progress'. This claim is either
nalve or disingenuous. Any future cashless bank-payments society will be the outcome of a
deliberate war on cash waged by an alliance of three elite groups with deep interests in
seeing it emerge.
Tue first is the banking industry, which controls the core digitai fiat money system that our
public system of cash currently competes with. It irritates banks that people do indeed act
upon their right to convert their bank deposits into state money. It forces them to keep the
ATM network running. Tue cashless society, in their eyes, is a utopia where money cannot
leave - or even exist - outside the banking system, but can only be transferred from bank to
bank.

Tue second is the private payments industry - the likes of Mastercard - that profits from
running the infrastructure that services that bank system, streamlining the process via
which we transfer digita! money between bank accounts. They have self-serving reasons to
push for the removal of the cash option. Cash transactions are peer-to-peer, requiring no
intermediary, and are thus transactions that Visa cannot skim a cut off.

Tue third - perhaps ironically - is the state, and quasi-state entities such as centra! banks.
They are united with the financial industry in forcing everyone to buy into this privatised
bank-payments society for reasons of monitoring and contro!. Tue bank-money system
forms a panopticon that enables - in theory - ali transactions to be recorded, watched and
analysed, good or bad. Furthermore, cash's 'offline' nature means it cannot be remotely
altered or frozen. This hampers centra! banks in implementing 'innovative' monetary
policies, such as setting negative interest rates that slowly edit away bank deposits in order
to coerce people into spending.

Governments don't really mention that monetary policy agenda. It isn't catchy enough.
Rather, the key weapons used by the alliance are more classic shock-and-awe scare tactics.
Cash is used 1ry criminals! People buy drugs with cash! It's the black economy! It supports tax
evasioni Tue ability to present contro! as protection relies on constant calls to imagine an
external enemy, the terrorist or Mafiosi. These cries of moral panie are set in contrast to the
glossy smiling adverts about digitai payment. Tue emerging cashless society looms like a
futuristic sunrise, cleansing us of these dangerous filthy notes with rays of hygienic,
convenient, digita! salvation.

Signs say 'Card only'. Who is Card? Card is a glamorous


socialite, welcomed into stores. Card is superior
Supporting this core alliance are auxiliary corps of establishment academics, economists
and futurists, living life in leafy suburbs, flying business class to speak at technology
conferences, attended to by a wall of sycophantic media pundits and innovation journalists
preaching the gospel of cashlessness. 1he Curse of Cash (2016) by Kenneth Rogoff,
economics professor at Harvard, was longlisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey
Business Book of the Year award, undoubtedly accompanied by invitations to financial
industry-sponsored conference parties in five-star hotel lobbies.

Tue psychological assault is working. Tue N etherlands - where I face my vending machine
- has become one key front in the war on cash. Here cash is becoming viewed like an illegal
alien on the run, increasingly excluded from the formai economy, drawing dirty looks from
shop assistants. Signs say 'Card only'. Who is Card? Card is a glamorous socialite,
welcomed into stores. Card is superior. Look at the bank adverts showcasing their
accessories for Card. Nobody is building accessories for Cash.

Tue frontlines, though, are now creeping to poorer countries. India's recent so-called
'demonetisation' was a brutal overnight retraction of rupee notes by the prime minister
N arendra Modi to bring discipline to the 'black economy'. It was an exercise that
necessitated choking the poorest Indians, who depend on cash and who often lack access to
bank accounts. Originally cast in popular terms as an attempt to stem corruption, the
message was later ironically altered to cast cashlessness as a way to create economie
progress for India's poor.

This message is given humanitarian credentials by the UN-based Better Than Cash Alliance,
which promotes 'the shift from cash to digitai payments to reduce poverty and drive
inclusive growth', and which counts Visa, Mastercard and Citi Foundation as key partners.
Tue Modi action was also preceded by the initiation of the Cashless Catalyst programme,
'an alliance between the Govemment of India and USAID, to expand digitai payments in
India', backed by a panoply of digitai payments companies. These officiai alliances of states,
corporations and public academics are impressive. In India, well-heeled urban elites who
applauded Modi's actions from the sidelines can safely point to Rogoff's Financial Times-
nominated book of the year to justify it.

Rogoff, though, has appeared spooked, writing articles stating that he was advocating
removing cash only from advanced economies with advanced banking systems. Oh damn.
Highly influential and politically powerful Harvard economist releases a global anti-cash
book and is concemed when poorer nations take him seriously?

Tue attempt to present the cashless bank-payments society as a benefit to marginalised


people is tenuous at best. If you're a vulnerable denizen of the informai economy, an off-the-
grid hustler, or a low-income precarious worker, banks and payments intermediaries have
little interest in prioritising you. Tue bank-payments society will not process the activity that
takes piace in the peripheral cracks that form the basis of your livelihood. Indeed, it is
intended to shut down those spaces. That might be characterised as 'progress', but equally
we might say you're being firewalled out of the economy in an act of economie cleansing.
Under the guise of destroying the 'shadow economy', the underclass, the unwatched, the
eccentric and the untamed will be coercively corralled into the hands of the state-corporate
mainstream.

I have no special love of cash. I don't really care for nostalgie reveries on the beautiful
aesthetics of the banknote, or its texture and cultura! importance within a market system,
though I understand this is important to many. I also don't really care about the pedantic
history of cash, whether it was the Tang or Song dynasty in China who first issued notes.
What I care about is the unaccountable callousness of this vending machine, the one that
has just blocked me from engaging in free trade.
Old vending machines didn't do this. They had a little slot for coins, one that allowed even a
ragged beggar to convert his tiny incarne into sustenance. Look closely at the machine. It's
actually two machines. The Payter device fused into its body does not work for the cola
seller. It works for payments corporations. You see, the cola seller has one bank account, but
there are many people with many accounts at different banks approaching the vending
machine. Those banks need to identify which of their account holders wishes to transfer
how much money to which account at which other bank. The device is there to deliver my
card information into the transmission lines of the card payments networks, where it will be
- in theory - routed to facilitate the transfer of money tokens from my account into the
seller's account, fora small fee.

This is no longer a deal between me and the seller. I am now dealing with a complex of
unknown third parties, profit-seeking money-passers who stand between us to act as
facilitators of the money flow, but also as potential gatekeepers. Ifa gatekeeper doesn't want
to do business with me, I can't do business with the seller. They have the ability to jam,
monitor or piace conditions upon that glorious core ritual of capitalism - the transfer of
money for the transfer of goods. This innocuous device exudes mechanical indifference,
reporting only to invisible bosses far away, running invisible algorithms in invisible black
boxes that don't like me.

Ifwe are going to referto bank payments as 'cashless', we should then referto cash
payments as 'bankless'. Because that's what cash is, and right now it is the only thing
standing between us and a completely privatised money system.

As in the case of previous privatisations, we'll hear suited TV pundits arguing that if the
digitai payments companies don't work for people they will be outcompeted by better
private systems. Yeah right. When did you last see a credible competitor to the likes of
Mastercard and Visa? They preside aver huge network systems, subject to intense network
effects. It's in no shopkeeper's interest to use a competitor to Visa when it's so utterly
dominant already.

The most we can hope for, then, is a benign oligopoly of payments corporations, heavily
exposed to the geopolitica! aspirations of the states they reside within. The Chinese state
encouraged the creation of China UnionPay precisely because they don't want US payment
megacorps installing themselves as gatekeepers into transactions made by Chinese citizens.

The new bank-payments society doesn't actually salve


the old problems - crime just goes digitai, your account gets
hacked rather than your wallet stolen
When mounting a defence, there are always two options. You either block an incoming
attack, or you launch a strategie counterstrike, sometimes summed up as 'offence is the best
defence'.
In the former strategy, you focus on pointing out that the arguments against cash are either
exaggerated, inaccurate or incomplete. Exaggeration and inaccuracy are both present in
anti-cash tirades, but incompleteness is crucial. For example, let's say we agree that
criminals prefer cash. Does that transiate into 'We should ban cash'? Banning everything
that criminals favoured would almost certainly lead to a constrained, suffocating existence
for everyone. Congratulations, we ended crime, but only at the expense of ending privacy
and free creative space too. Tue end of crime comes accompanied by an overbearing
surveillance state, always standing next to you, reaching into your most private moments,
treating you like a small child that cannot be trusted. Enjoy your life.

Tue second mode of defence-as-offence involves attacking the proposed alternative. We


point out that the new bank-payments society, firstly, does not actually solve the old
problems - crime just goes digitai, and your account gets hacked rather than your wallet
stolen - and, even worse, causes a whole range of new problems that were not explicitly
mentioned in Mastercard's marketing materiai. Let me reveal the fine-print written in
invisible ink: Did we mention that in removing the ability to transact with cash we can now see
everything you do and can also censoryou? Cheer up, if you have nothing to hide, you have
nothing to fear!

Oh yes, I can use scare tactics too. I can point out that removing cash takes us one step
closer to potentially realising the most powerful and automated state-corporate financial
contro! complex the world has ever seen. Very few people either seem to understand this, or
care. Like a slow-boiled frog, we don't seem to notice the process of locking ourselves into
daily dependence on an alienating, unaccountable infrastructure that makes us increasingly
subservient to bureaucratic processes we cannot see.

Maybe I need to turn up the shock-and-awe. Maybe I can drum up an argument about how,
in a cashless society, terrorists could target the electrical grid to bring entire regional
economies to a halt.

No. My main defence of cash will be simple and intuitive. As unsexy and analogue as cash
is, it is resilient. It is easy to use. It requires little fancy infrastructure. It is not subject to
arbitrary algorithmic glitches from incompetent programmers. And, yes, it leaves no data
trail that will be used to project the aspirations and neuroses of faceless technocrats and
business analysts into my daily existence. It comes with criminals, but hey, it's good old
friendly normai capitalism rather than predictive Minority Report surveillance-capitalism.
And ask yourself this: do you really want to live in the latter society without the ability to buy
drugs? Believe me, you'll need something to dull the existential pain.

aeon.co 01 March, 2017


lf you cannot see thls e-mal please clck here.

The
Economist Espresso

Thursday March 2nd

Today's agenda

The Macron mystery: French politics


For months, Emmanuel Macron has been surging in polls for the French
presidency without saying exactly what he would do if be got the job. So far,
this has not exactly harmed the politica) novice: he has climbed to second
piace (hebind the far-right Marine Le Pen) in polis for first-round voting,
and is now favourite to win the run-off. In Paris today, finally, the former
Socialist economy minister wil1 unveil bis manifesto. Parts of it will be more
radical than expected. He wants, for example, to cap redundancy payments
and sanction those on unemployment benefit who refuse repeated offers of
work. Such ideas wil1 hand fresh ammunition to his critics, especially on the
left. But bis prospects still look good. His centre-rigbt rival, François Fillon,
yesterday vowed to stay in the race despite an imminent formai judicial
investigation into abuse of the parliam.entary payroll. The more damaged Mr
Fillon becomes, the greater Mr Macron's chances.

Angela on the Nile: Egypt and Germany


The German chancellor arrives in Egypt today, ber first visit since Abdel-
Fattah al-Sisi became president in 2014. Mr Sisi's authoritarian style bas
caused friction in the relationship, but economie ti.es bave strengthened.
Mrs Merkel and Mr Sisi will inaugurate the first phase of a project by
Siemens to build three power plants in Egypt; a clutch of German
businessmen are in tow. Foreign investors are returning to Egypt after years
of weak economie growth. Their renewed appetite has driven up the
Egyptian pound and eased a foreign-currency sbortage that hindered
business. Tue first tranche of a $12bn IMF loan has also belped. In order to
seal that deal, the government agreed to cut energy subsidies, raise new
taxes and allow the pound to fl.oat. More reforms are planned, including a
new investment law awaited by the Germans. As their ambassador put it:
"We don't want old problems to occur again, where the investor can't
repatriate bis profi.ts."

Polls apart: Northern lreland's election


Voters go to the polls today to elect a new devolved legislature. The previous
Northern Ireland Assembly fell apart after less than a year when trust broke
down between the two main ruling parties, the Democratic Unionist Party
and Sinn Fein. The latter accuses the DUP of arrogance and incompetence in
constructing a disastrous fuel-subsidy scheme that could cost taxpayers up
to f:5oom ($615m). The DUP counters that Sinn Fein's real goal in forcing
an early election is to win more seats and gradually edge the province out of
the United Kingdom. London and Dublin worry that political crisis will
undennine a fragile peace process that may be further weakened by a hard
British exit from the European Union. The DUP and Sinn Fein are likely to
remain the largest parties, but relations will continue to be tense. After the
election, they will bave to agree on how to share power. Expect months of
tough negotiations.

Bond bind: the euro-area economy


Inflation figures released today will probably lead to renewed calls for the
European Central Bank to scale back its bond-buying scheme. Thanks to
rising fuel prices, inflation is now near the ECB's target of below but close to
2%, compared with deflation a year ago. Severa! indicators suggest that the
euro-area economy is out of the doldrums. The inflation-averse Germans
will see these as reasons to cut back band purchases. But two considerations
will give the ECB pause for thought. The first is that underlying inflation,
which excludes fuel and food prices, has stayed stubbornly weak, at around
1%. The second is that, as figures released today will show, euro-area
unemployment as a whole remains higher than before the financial crisis
(though it has fallen in recent years). Together with muted growth in hours
worked and wages, that suggests there is stili plenty of scope for the bloc's
economy to expand without causing runaway inflation.

Camera action: Snap goes public


The listing today of Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, a wildly popular
messaging app, is the most prominent social-network public offering since
Twitter's IPO in 2013. Unlike Twitter, Snap makes no claims about
connecting the world. Indeed, despite starting out as a picture-messaging
social network, it now describes itself as a "camera company''. That may be
for the best: Twitter suffered from being constantly compared with
Facebook. Yet Snap has challenges ofits own. It has yet to tum a profit. Its
advertising business, though growing, seems destined to be a niche player
given the large sales force it requires and the labour-intensive nature of
creating bespoke ads for the app. Moreover, the app itself remains
impenetrable to most people outside its core following of 18- to 24-year-
olds, which may explain why user growth is slowing. None of that seems to
bave deterred investors, who are setto snap up the shares.

I Sna ppy days


Snapchat
Smartphone app penetration
United States, by age group, %

80
18 to 24
~~~ 60

~
40
25to34 /
~
cw:z
:;P
- - - - - --
~ 35and ~
20

lllllliilliiiililliiiliiilllilliiliili o
2013 14 15 16

Advertising revenues, $bn


• United States • Rest of the world
FORECAST
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
o
2015 16 17 18
Sources: comScore; eMarketer

The world in brief

Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fu.nd, said that its
founder, Ray Dallo, will step down as co-chief executive in Aprii. He will
remain co-chief investment officer of the $i6obn finn, which is known for
its unusual corporate culture, dubbed "radical truth and radical
transparency". Jon Rubinstein, the other co-CEO, will leave Bridgewater but
serve as an adviser.

McDonald,s announced it will bring app-based ordering and payment to


all of its 14,000 locations in America this year, in an effort to speed delivery.
It will be following in the footsteps of St.arbucks and Domino's, which bave
introduced similar systems. McDonald's reckons it has lost soom orders
since 2012 as the fast-food business got faster.

The pervasive nature of Amazon Web Services as the hosting service


behind hundreds ofthousands ofwebsites, apps and internet-of-things
devices became apparent when a technical fault hit its popular "Simple
Storage Service". Sites ranging from the Securities and Exchange
Commission to Netflix, and apps including Snapchat and Espresso, were
affected for more than four hours.

Jeff Sessions, America's attorney-general, spoke with Russia's


ambassador twice in 2016, conversations he did not reveal during his
confirmation hearings before the Senate. Mr Sessions oversees the FBI,
which is investigating Russia's interference in America's election. He says he
was speaking with the Russians in his role as a senator and not as a member
of the Trump campaign.

Syrian govemment forces, backed by Russia, have for the second time
retaken the areas surrounding Palmyra from Islamic State. Govemment
forces had captured the ancient city, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, from
the jihadist group in March, but lost it again in December. Separately, a UN
commission said both Syrian and rebel forces committed war
crim.es during last year's battle for Aleppo.

In an effort to kick-start debates about the future of the European


Union without Britain, the European Commission presented the European
Parliament with five possible scenarios; their titles ranged from "carrying
on" to "nothing but the single market" to "doing much more together". Jean-
Claude Juncker, the commission's president, wamed the 27 remaining
states of the "allure ofisolation" and called for unity.

A Norwegian appeals court ruled that authorities had not violated the rights
of Anders Behring Breivik, a right-wing extremist who killed 77 people in
2011, by keeping him in near-isolation. The verdict overtumed a lower-court
ruling that he was held in a "completely locked world" in violation of a ban on
"inhuman or degrading treatment" under the European Convention on Human
Rights.
Friday March 3rd

Today's agenda

Star-crossed: LSE and Deutsche Borse


The London Stock Exchange expects its full-year results, out today, to show
strong progress across all business areas. lt appeared this week to abandon
its planned merger with Deutsche Borse, which also operates stock
exchanges and clearinghouses-their third attempt since 2000. Last week
the LSE rejected the European Commission's latest demand that it sell part
of its business in order to allay competition concerns. The regulator is due to
make a decision by early Aprii; unless its position changes, the merger will
fail. Even if it approves the deal, there are more hurdles to clear. German
and British authorities have yet to bless the union; thanks to Brexit, the
Gennans want the new company's headquarters moved to Frankfurt.
Nonetheless, the LSE's share price has been resilient, perhaps buoyed by the
prospect of an alternative suitor. Intercontinental Exchange, an American-
owned rival, expressed interest last year. Given sterling's subsequent fall,
the LSE now looks a cheaper buy.

I Stock in trade
London Stock Exchange Group, share price, f.

35

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 20

1'
J F MA M J J A S O N O J FM
2016 2017
Source: Thomson Reuters

Last big one standing: RCEP


Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an
American-led regional trade pact, supposedly handed power to the Chinese.
Today there will be an early test of what that means: the latest negotiating
round of the Regional Comprehensive Economie Partnership, a deal
currently being bashed out between 16 countries of the Asia-Pacific region,
will wrap up in Kobe, Japan. Expectations are low. Without America, deals
will be shallower, because counb.ies such as China are relatively
uninterested in the deep protections and regulatory harmonisation pushed
by the Obama administration. Notoriously intransigent Indian trade
negotiators, fighting in particular to avoid opening their markets to the
Chinese, won't help. Yet the frequency of discussions between big players
like India, China and Japan has picked up. Now negotiators face a tight
trade-off between the speed and the meaningfulness of the result. TPP may
bave ceded leadership in Asia, but it also lowered the pressure to sign a deep
deal.

I Vendor diagram
Trade agreements, March 2017

Australia
Canada Brunei
Chile
Mexico
r Japan
Malaysia
United States New Zealand
Peru Singapore Cambodia
Vietnam India
Laos
Hong Kong China Myanmar
Papua New Indonesia
Guinea Phi lippi nes
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan Thailand
FTAAP-21
Source: "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific
Integration", by P.A. Petri, M.G. Plummer, F. Zhai

The importance of being: Jeff Sessions


To lose one close aide because of undeclared conversations with the Russian
ambassador might be regarded as misfortnne. To lose two would be careless.
That is why Jeff Sessions, America's attomey-general, probably won't resign
or be sacked-despite having misled Congress during confirmation hearings
when he said plainly that he had not communicated with "the Russians"
during the campaign. He has recused himself from an investigation into
links between the Trump team and Russia, while maintaining that the
answers he gave the Senate were "honest and correct as I understood at the
time". No one should expect a special prosecutor to be appointed to look
into it. There is one person with the authority to launch such an
investigation into the attomey-general: the attomey-general. His meetings
with the ambassador may not have been untoward. But forgetting about
them in a confinnation hearing was. In more nonnal times he would have
gone already.

Target practice: China's parliament


What it lacks in debate, the National People's Congress makes up in
numbers. Some 5,000 delegates are gathering in Beijing for a two-week
session of the annual rubber-stamp parliament. The highlight comes on
Sunday, when Li Keqiang, the premier, gives his work report, akin to a
budget speech. He will unveil China's 2017 GDP goal. After targeting-and
achieving-growth of 6.5-796 last year, many expect sights to be lowered to
"about 6.596" this year. This tweak would symbolise a shift away from
prizing growth at any cost. Similarly, plans will probably feature a lower
target for money-supply expansion, and pledges to tame property
speculation. Mr Li's biggest goal, though, will be unstated: to ensure nothing
goes wrong before a Communist Party congress at the year's end, when Xi
Jinping, the president, is likely to consolidate his grip on power. That is one
target he cannot afford to miss.

Restless: Nigeria's jostling politicians


As President Muhammadu Buhari's stay in London stretches into its sixth
week, his political allies and rivals back home are growing fidgety. Mr
Buhari's inner circle has not said what ails him, nor when he is expected
home, and the platitudes on offer-his spokesman says he is just taking
some rest on doctors' orders-are wearing thin. The business of goveming
has been left to bis vice-president, Yemi Osinbajo, who is quietly pushing
through long-delayed reforms, such as one making business visas easier to
get. Many in the ruling party are already looking towards the next
presidential election in 2019. IfMr Buhari is too unwell to stand, the
obvious candidate would be Mr Osinbajo. But, like the previous president,
Goodluck Jonathan, he is a Christian from the south. Elevating him in place
of Mr Buhari, a Muslim from the north, might be more than the unlikely
alliance that formed the ruling party could stand.

The world in brief

Shares in Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, a messaging app, opened


at $24 per share-well over the $17 pricing for the finn's IPO-swiftly
making its founders billionaires. Though the company has never turned a
profit, and growth is slowing, appetite was voracious: it sold 2oom shares
worth $3-4bn, making it the largest IPO since Alibaba, a Chinese e-
commerce firm, floated in 2014.

The number of Americans making initial claims


for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level in almost 44 years (a
seasonally adjusted 223,000 in the week to Februacy 25th) suggesting
further strengthening of the job market. Jerome Powell, a Federai
Reserve govemor, said the case for another interest-rate rise "has come
together" and that three of them might be needed this year.

Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world's largest brewer, eamed less than


expected last year, and its top brass will miss out on annual bonuses. Net
profits tumbled to $1.2bn, compared with $8.3bn in 2015. On the plus side,
the group now expects its $1oobn merger with SABMiller to cut costs by
more than $2.Sbn, up from a previous forecast of $2.45bn.

An investigation found that senior staff at Yahoo knew about a massive


security breach in 2014 before the firm struck a $4.Sbn deal with
Verizonlast year. Marissa Mayer, Yahoo's chief executive, will forgo her
bonus for 2016 because of the mishandling of the attack, which was carried
out by state-sponsored hackers and affected at least soom accounts. Yahoo's
genera} counsel resigned.

Malaysia said it will deport a North Korean man held in connection with
the assassinati.on of the half-brother of North Korea's leader, as there was
insufficient evidence to charge him. South Korean intelligence believes the
murder-by chemical weapon-was arranged by agents from the North. The
only suspects charged so far are two women, from Indonesia and Vietnam.

The European Parliament passed a resolution to reintroduce visa


requirements for Americans visiting the bloc. The move is a waming shot
intended to spark full visa reciprocity: America requires visas for visitors
from Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland and Romania but its citizens can
currentlyvisit any EU countryvisa-free. The European Commission flagged
the imbalance in 2014 but America has yet to act.

Egypt's highest appeals court acquitted Hosni Mubarak, a former president,


of conspiring in the deaths of hundreds of protesters during the Arab Spring in
2011. After the 18-day uprising unseated Mr Mubarak and resulted in bis
arrest, he had been sentenced to life imprisonment. An appeals court dismissed
the charges in 2014 but the prosecution secured a retrial.
I NTERNATIONAL

Europeans Vate to Alter Visa Rules of


Americans
By JAMES KANTER

BRUSSELS - The European Parliament has passed a nonbinding resolution


calling for the reintroduction of visa requirements for American citizens, raising
the stakes in a long-running battle over the United States' refusal to grant visa-free
access to citizens of five European Union countries.

In the vote on Thursday, European lawmakers played tit-for-tat in their dispute


with the United States, demanding restrictions on American travelers unless the
Trump administration lifts travel requirements for citizens of Bulgaria, Croatia,
Cyprus, Poland and Romania.

"You're talking about citizens from countries, like Poland, with a major diaspora"
in the United States, Claude Moraes, the British lawmaker who leads the
Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs in the European
Parliament, said in a telephone interview on Friday. ''You're really seeing
frustration and anger, and without any timetable, this is becoming increasingly
seen as second-class treatment."

The resolution, while nonbinding, was an important politica! signal, and it


increases pressure on the European Commission, the bloc's executive body, to
confront the new administration in Washington, even though it may prove to be as
intransigent on the matter as the Obama administration, if not more.

The European Parliament also warned that it could take the further step of
bringing the European Commission to court if it continues not to stand up to
Washington.

"Only when the U.S. fully gets that the European Commission is going to act are we
going to get any kind oftimetable from the United States," Mr. Moraes said. "At the
moment, the U.S. just believes the commission is not going to act but stick with the
pragmatic argument that doing so would create damage that's just too great."

He continued, referring to Washington, "There's no denying heightened concern


about the current administration, but that's more about uncertainty about who's in
charge and how the State Department is working."
Mr. Moraes said the civil liberties committee could still recommend within two
months that a case against the commission's failure to act be brought to the bloc's
highest tribuna!, the Court of Justice of the European Union.

"It's a question of using what options are open to us," he said, explaining the
possible resort to litigation.

In the vote on Thursday, the Parliament gave the European Commission two
months to take legai measures to impose visas for American travelers to the
European Union unless the Americans offered reciprocity to all citizens from the
bloc.

European officials in Brussels have balked at making travel to Europe more


difficult for Americans, saying doing so would have an economie cost and would
most likely not even resolve the hurdles facing citizens of the five affected
countries.

The Parliament's measure was approved in a show ofhands and was not expected
to worsen the standoff with the United States. But in the event that the court in
Luxembourg were to rule in favor of Parliament, the commission might be forced
to impose visa requirements on Americans.

The Trump administration, finding itself in a tit-for-tat battle over access, would
then almost certainly do the same for travelers from the European Union.

In 2014, the European Commission was notified that the United States and four
other countries - Australia, Brunei, Canada and Japan - were failing to provide
reciprocai, visa-free travel to citizens of some European Union countries.

Australia, Brunei and Japan have resolved differences with the European Union,
and an agreement with Canada is expected to take effect in December for all
citizens of Bulgaria and Romania, according to a statement from the European
Parliament.

Margaritis Schinas, the chief spokesman for the commission, appeared to tamp
down any expectations that it would impose visa requirements on Americans
within two months, as outlined in the Parliament resolution. Instead, he said he
advocated "continued engagement and patient diplomatic contacts" with
Washington.

The commission will issue a progress report on discussions with the United States,
he added, but not before the end of June.

Follow James Kanter on Twitter @jameskanter.


foreverspin"'

•••
Fact • Shaa:.
Politlcs Check:
Trump's
First Address to Congress
R.eporten from.1be New Yotk Timea 1ict d1ecbd Presidmt Trump's fini
addms 1D Congress. Watdi the yid.eo and see bow we ana!rn:d 1he s.peeçh in
1'l!A) time. and check out our fil.et cbocQ oftbe Democrats' nispome. FEB. 28,
2017

~e murder rate in 2015 experienced


.--.....- largest single-year increase in nearly
century."

Tn.e, but somewhat misleading.


F.B.L crime statistics et~ thatthms were lS,696 murdm m201S, up 10 percent from.
2014. (Lut yeaia figuRll are nat available yet.) 1be increue waa largely driven by atn:et
crime in a lumdfu1 of large citiea, like Chicago ami Baltimore.

But eme l'ClllQ1I. for such a large uptick was that crime had becn falling fora pnmlticm. In
1991, the F.B.I. eatimated tbat tbe.re W<ft 24,703 munlera.

- Charlle Savage

~tiamacare premiums nationwide


--...~ve increased by double and triple
"

Tnle, but cheny-pic:kad.


Doubl.e-digit increue1 m pn:miuma are common. Plesident Trump citecl Arizcma'a 116
peniem incmlae; i1 il the cmly state tbat experienced a trip}e.digit hib. Plali\UDlll for a
popular group of health plana sold cm HealthCan:.gov roee this year by 111. svcnge of 2S
penient, eccording to the Obama adminiatration.

While subeidiea are available to people with 1ow and modaace incomes, people who do Dat
qualify for financial asaistance must bear the full cosl
- Robert Pear
@milies of people killed by
..,.....1;...documented immigrants have been

red by our media."

The individuals killed by undocumcnted i.mmigrants mentioned by President 'INmp in hia


speech mieived widespreed coverage in locai r..ewspapen and on television. For eumple, 1he
death of Jamiel Shaw Jr., who was shot and k.:illed in 2008 in Los Angeles, was widely
cownd by Tbe Los Angeles Thnes and local television s1ations.
- Ron Nbron

~t:>amacare is collapsing."

Thla la an exageratlon.
Pftlmiums for health immance und« the Affordable Care Act inml89ed Sllbstantially thia
year. Deductibles are oftenhigb. Tbemmiberofinsurance companies offering coverage has
s1mmk in many statai. Big insunml, lolling :money in 1he public !Dlllblphu:es, bave cm1ailed
thoir pmticipation.

But millions ofpeople with modcst inCOIDCll bave obtained covc:rage, wilh federai suhsidies
tbat ndw:e thoir pmmiums and oul-of-pocbt costs. Republli:an eft'orbi to mpeal the bl!lllth
c:are law bave Gnl8ied greafCll' unemtainty, whicli 1hnlalals to destabiliz.e the llllllb1» evm
moni.

- Robert Pear

Trulh.
ll's grounded in facts.
Oiscover it wi th us.
Get 60% off for one year.

1113/H.!f+Mf
è~r ~r\u !Jork èimrs

ational Academy of Sciences report


~·- nd that immigrants cost the country
ns.
Thla needa context
Tho 2016 National Acadomy ofSc:ioncos report found tbat 1ho net cost of immigranti varios
drutiça]ly by region, but tbat their avcnl80 c:ost to the Uniteci Stati=s economy between 2011
and 2013 was $57.4 billion. Howeva', the same report found tbat tbc childnm of immigrantg
mab up much of that cost. addiDg a li.Cl bencJit of $30.5 billion. lbird-pncmtion
immigrmta far exceeded tbc cost oftheir grandplrenta. adding a $223.8 billion benefit

- C&ltlln Dlckerson

~ver
43 million Americans are on food
~~-... mps."

The number ls correct.


Accolding to the Agricultun: Departmcnt. 433 million Americana use food stamps. A!J with
tha povmty ntll, 1hougb, 1he number bas bHn tnmding dmmward OVfll' 1he put savmaJ yam.

- Dana Goldstein

~e've lost more than one-fourth of our


- --...,,_,,nufacturing jobs since Nafta was

Not becausa of Nafta.


The United. State& hu lost a lot of factoiy joba aince 2000, but the biggeat reaaon ia
technoJ.ogical progreu, not foreip competition. Amcrica111 IDll1llfacturing output is at the
bigbest level in history- it just doom't take as many worbrs to mab stufi' anymat'8. Some
jobs bave becn IOlt to fcnign çompetition, but stwlies assip a modest role to Nafta.
- Binyamin Appelbaum

~ver 43 million people are now living

True - but the number has allo fallen.


According to the Censua Bureau, 43.1 million Americana m=re living below the federai
poverty line in 2015. But that number ia lower dian it wu in the dcpths ofthe receasion. in
2009 and 2010.
- Dana Goldstein

~e Keystone and Dakota Access


~IJ ...•. . . elines will create "tens of thousands

lllls needs context.


~ident Trump has signed cxmitive oidcn iDtlmded to c:lear dle way for the c:onsttudion of
1he Keystonc md Dako1a Acc:els pjpclincs. This will c:nate jobs, althovgh most of the jobs
will be tempomy. A 2014 State Departmcnt cnviromnental review estimateci 1hat Keystonc
would &app0rt 42,0001empm'a1y jobs over ita ~yesr COIIBCrucCioD pe:riod- about 3,900 of
1hem in ccmstrw:tion. the rest in indirect npportjobs, such u food se:rvice. It eatimab:d tbat
Keystone would creete aboua 35 permanent jobs.

- Comi Davenport

Trulh.
ll's grounded in lads.
Discover it with us.
Get 60% off for one year.

11HH'"i'!.!ffi
~t ~t\U !Jork ièimts

~i raety-four
million Americans are out
~.....the labor farce."

lllis is millaadins.
That ia roughly the number of.Americam older t1um 15 wllo do not bsw jobs. But it include•
hish school ami. college atudarts, people wilh disabilitk:s, stay-at-home psrenll and mi1lions
of retirees. Tbc numbet ofAmericam who would like to work but can't find jobs ia much
lllllllller. 'l'ha BllR!llll ofl..abor Statistiai estimate& that abaut 7.6 million people weni
unemployed in 18DWll)'.
- Binyamin Appelbaum
~e've defended the borders of other
...,.__.,.... jons, while leaving our own borders
open far anyone to cross."

Open In parta, but heavlly patrolled as well.


Jndividuals CllDllOt jut walk acmss tha bordem without fim of intmceptiOJL. Soma do sneak
am>ss, but the borders llJ"Cil guanted by 21,000 Bonklr Pabvl aganbl along with a similar
number of Customs and Border Protection oflic;m at the 325 offieial porta of entry, whiçh
include ahports, 8C8pOl'l8 ami land borda' crossinp.
-Ron Nlxon

~e
are removing gang members, drug
~~lers and criminals. rr

Not a blg change.


President Barack Obama already ordm:d tbc Depertment of Homeland. Sccmity to ma.Ire
9Cllious aimiDals a primary fows ofhis doportation efforts. Pnsidmt Trump bas called for
ali v.ndoc;umeted immigrants to be deported. Widi limitecl manpower ami r:esoun:es, 1hat
could mean a bigber ahale of nonviolent offenden among thoae who are clepoitcd. Multiple
studies bave çonclnded that immigrants commit Cewer crlmcs per capita than pcople bom in
thc UDited States.
- Nlcholas Kullsh

ivelihoods of our great coal


miners."

This is parlly true but misleading.

Mr. Tnunp did indeed aign a bili rolling badt a ~on dud would bave im:vented coa1
miDiq çompanies from polluting streem5. But time ia no evidczu:e that the rule thmlùmcd a
IÌgllificmt lllJIDber of coa1 miningjoba, or that rolling it back will create new onea.

l'ha-e ue only about 70,000 dircct coal miningjobs m thc Uniteci States. But most
economista bave cam:luded tllat the decline ia due to iDcreased medianiation in dJe mining
illdualry ami a mamt llhii\ by el.ectric: utilities away fiom coa18lld toward Dalmal gas, which
i1 che.aper. No cn:da"ble ltwliea hm: ahown dud roll.in& back major regulatiOll8 on coal
pollution. wil1 coD1ribute to amajor increese in coel miningjoba.
- Coral Davenport
~forcing immigration laws will raise
~-ges.

MQbe a litlle.
Economists 11e decply dividcd abolll tbc etrect of immigratiOD OD thc wapa of nativc-bom
woibrs. So.me see evidem:e tbat ill.creued competition lw modcstly reduccd die waps for
10111e kiDda ofwotk, putiçululy low-ekillecl labor. But lhe e1lèctB are Jdatively llDlll-
pcrbapa a few pen:eutage pointa- and the ove:rall effect on the cccmom.y ia moat libly
po1ieive.
- Binyamin Appelbeum

Trulh.
ll's grounded in facts.
Discover it with us.
Get 60% off for one year.

IH'hi.!i!!.141

~ave
directed several federai
~~ncies to fight crime and dismantle
riminal cartels that have spread
across our nation."

True, but they don't do much.


Presiclent Tnunp signed two crimc-r:elated exeeutive orders on Feb. 9 that did little of
substancc. The cmler on reduçing crime e1Sentially just directed tbc Juslicc Depar1mcnt to
dcvdop a stntegy to do so by coorcliaaling with otha' agaicies. The ordcr OD combating
crimiDa1 cartela hagely ccmaiatecl of atming oppoeition to auch groups. It directed dJe
govemmcnt'1 interageney Threat MitigatiOD Woddng Oroup, which hlll eidated lince 2011,
CD review varioua etforta to battle them and "work to improve" those efforts.

- Charlie Sevege

More on NYTimes.com
Franaf's next ravalutiori
The vote that could wreck the European Union
W7ly the Fn!ndl. presidential electiDn wt11 ~ amseqwmc.esfiu beyond its barders

ID Ffom the prfnt edltlon I Leadet"S Mar4th2017

IT HAS been many years since France lallt had a revolution, ot even a seriom attempt at
reform. Stignalion, both political and economie, has been the hallmark of a country where
llttle has changed for decade&, even as power has 1'01.Qted between the establ!shed parti.es of
left and rlght.

unti! now. Th1s year's presldential. election, the most exdtlng ln llving m.emory, promlses an
upheaval. The Socialistand Republican parties, wlùch bave held power sinc::e the founding of
the Pifth Republic in 1958, could be eliminated in the tim round of a presidential ballot on
Aprii .23J:d. French voiers may fac:e a cholce bet.ween two .!nswient candldates: Marlne Le Pen,
the chatlsmatlc leader of the National Front. and Ellllllalluel Maaon, the upswt leader of a
liberal movement, Bn Marche! (On 1he Mowl), whìch be l'ounded onlylast year.
The implieations of these insurgencies are hard to exaggerate. They are the clearest example
yet of a global trend: that the old divide between left and right is growing less important than
a new one between open and closed. The resulting realignment will bave reverberations far
beyond France's borders. It could revitalise the European Union, or wreck it.

Les misérables

The revolution's proximate cause is voters' fury at the uselessness and self-dealing of their
ruling class. The Socialist president, François Hollande, is so unpopular that he is not
running for re-election. The established opposition, the centre-right Republiean party, saw its
chances sink on March 1st when its standard-bearer, François Fillon, revealed that he was
being formally investigated for paying his wife and children nearly €1m ($1.05m) of publie
money for allegedly fake jobs. Mr Fillon did not withdraw from the race, despite having
promised to do so. But his chances of winning are dramatieally weakened.

Further fuelling voters' anger is their anguish at the state of France (see article
(http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21717824 -new-social-faul tline-france-has-
resha ped-countrys-poli ties-and-sidelined-i ts-main) ). One poll last year found that French
people are the most pessimistie on Earth, with 81% grumbling that the world is getting worse
and only 3% saying that it is getting better. Much of that gloom is economie. France's
economy has long been sluggish; its vast state, whieh absorbs 57% of GDP, has sapped the
country's vitality. A quarter of French youths are unemployed. Of those who bave jobs, few
can find permanent ones of the sort their parents enjoyed. In the face of high taxes and heavy
regulation those with entrepreneurial vim bave long headed abroad, often to London. But the
malaise goes well beyond stagnant living standards. Repeated terrorist attacks bave jangled
nerves, forced citizens to live under a state of emergency and exposed deep cultura! rifts in
the country with Europe's largest Muslim community.

Many of these problems bave built up over decades, but neither the left nor the right has been
able to getto grips with them. France's last serious attempt at ambitious economie reform, an
overhaul of pensions and social security, was in the mid-199os under PresidentJacques
Chirac. It collapsed in the face of massive strikes. Since then, few bave even tried. Nieolas
Sarkozy talked a big game, but his reform agenda was felled by the financial crisis of 2007-08.
Mr Hollande had a disastrous start, introducing a 75% top tax rate. He was then too unpopular
to get much done. After decades of stasis, it is hardly surprising that French voters want to
throw the bums out.

Both Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen tap into that frustration. But they offer radieally different
diagnoses ofwhat ails France and radieally different remedies. Ms Le Pen blames outside
forces and promises to protect voters with a combination of more barriers and greater socia!
welfare. She has effectively distanced herself from her party's anti-Semitic past (even evicting
her father from the party he founded), but she appeals to those who want to shut out the rest
of the world. She decries globalisation as a threat to French jobs and Islamists as fomenters of
terror who make it perilous to wear a short skirt in public. The EU is "an anti-democratic
monster". She vows to dose radical mosques, stanch the flow of immigrants to a trickle,
obstruct foreign trade, swap the euro fora resurrected French frane and calla referendum on
leaving the EU.

Mr Macron's instincts are the apposite. He thinks that more openness would make France
stronger. He is staunchly pro-trade, pro-competition, pro-immigration and pro-EU. He
embraces cultura! change and technological disruption. He thinks the way to get more French
people working is to reduce cumbersome labour protections, not add to them. Though he has
long been short on precise policies (he was due to publish a manifesto as The Economist went
to press), Mr Macron is pitching himself as the pro-globalisation revolutionary.

Look carefully, and neither insurgent is a convincing outsider. Ms Le Pen has spent her life in
politics; her success has been to make a hitherto extremist party socially acceptable. Mr
Macron was Mr Hollande's economy minister. His liberalising programme will probably be
less bold than that of the beleaguered Mr Fillon, who has promised to trim the state payroll by
500,000 workers and slash the labour code. Both revolutionaries would bave difficulty
enacting their agendas. Even if she were to prevail, Ms Le Pen's party would not win a
majority in the national assembly. Mr Macron barely has a party.

La France ouverte ou la France forteresse?

Nonetheless, they represent a repudiation of the status quo. A victory for Mr Macron would
be evidence that liberalism still appeals to Europeans. A victory for Ms Le Pen would make
France poorer, more insular and nastier. If she pulls France out of the euro, it would trigger a
financial crisis and doom a union that, for all its flaws, has promoted peace and prosperity in
Europe for six decades. Vladimir Putin would love that. It is perhaps no coincidence that Ms
Le Pen's party has received a hefty loan from a Russian bank and Mr Macron's organisation
has suffered more than 4,000 hacking attacks.

With just over two months to go, it seems Ms Le Penis unlikely to clinch the presidency. Polls
show her winning the first round but losing the run-off. But in this extraordinary election,
anything could happen. France has shaken the world before. It could do so again.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "France's next revolution"
A tale of two mayors

Is Italy's populist Five Star Movement ready to govem?


To judge by its first two big-city mayors: maybe, maybe not

From the print edition I Europe


Mar 2nd 2017 I ROME ANO TURIN

IT IS the best and worst oftimes for the Five Star Movement (M5S), the populist group that is
Italy's main opposition. On the bright side, Matteo Renzi, the fonner prime minister, resigned on
February 19th as leader ofthe Democratic Party (PD), the dominant party in government and the
M5S 's chief rival. Mr Renzi will probably regain contro! of the PD, but bis move highlighted a
split between bis supporters and critics, some ofwhom defected on February 28th to a new
radical-left parliarnentary group. Small wonder the MSS and PD are nearly even in the polls.

But ifthe MSS's popularity is clear, its competence is not. The party's most senior governing
officials are two mayors elected last June, Vrrginia Raggi in Rome (pictured at left), Italy's
biggest city, and Chiara Appendino in Turin (pictured at right), its fourth-biggest. Their
performances since could scarcely be more dissimilar.

On February 7th Ms Raggi learned that prosecutors had fonnally placed ber under investigation
for a second time. The mayor, who denies wrongdoing, risks indictment for falsifying a
document and abuse of her office. Her counterpart in Turin, according to a survey published in
January by Il Sole-24 Ore, a financial daily, has become Italy's most popular big-city mayor. Ms
Appendino 's approva! rate arnong the citizens of Turin was 62%, an increase of seven percentage
points since her election.

I Neck and neck


Italy, % polled, 26th February 2017
"If an election were to be held now,
how would you vate?"
o 10 20 30
Five Star Movement • • • • • • •
Democratic Party
Northern Leag ue
Forza Italia
Others
Source: EMG Acqua

Economist.com
The two women are among the more reassuring faces of a movement that is led by a demagogie
erstwhile comedian, Beppe Grillo. Ms Raggi is a lawyer; Ms Appendino a businesswoman. The
disparities in their records in office are partly caused by differences between the cities they
govem. Turin, in the shadow of the Alps, is elegant but unshowy, imbued with a culture of
reserve and compromise. It is said to have more Ferraris per head than any other Italian city, but
one never sees them. The bureaucracy bequeathed to Ms Appendino by the previous mayor, a
member ofthe PD, has a progressive outlook and a reputation for efficiency.

Rome, on the other hand, for all its ravishing beauty, is corrupt, chaotic and cynical. Ms Raggi
inherited a city hall notorious for sleaze that had been under central-govemment administration
because of an investigation into links between local-authority executives and organised crime.
Severa! officials were behind bars.

Unsurprisingly, Ms Raggi's biggest problems have involved personnel. The mayor put her trust
in officials who are now in jail or under investigation. The latest twist concems a city hall
functionary whom Ms Raggi promoted, almost tripling his salary. He was found to have taken
out three life-insurance policies worth €41,000 ($43,150), and to have made the future mayor
their beneficiary. Why remains unclear. Ms Raggi says she knew nothing of the transactions and
could only have profited if the policyholder had died. Prosecutors, who were already
investigating the mayor over another appointment, appeared to take her word. But they have
since opened a second investigation into alleged irregularities in the policyholder's promotion.
Ms Raggi is a suspect.

Ms Appendino chose her departmental chiefs before her election. She sidelined her most
dangerous rival within the local M5S and works in apparent harmony with a right-hand man
inherited from the previous administration. Maurizio Molinari, editor of La Stampa, a Turin-
based daily, offers two reasons for her popularity. "She keeps her distance from the M5S," he
says. "People don't feel they're being govemed by [Mr Grillo's followers], but by Ms
Appendino." And, he adds, the mayor is "very Torinese: low-profile".

Her achievements, however, have also been modest. And apart from some symbolically radical
gestures (including a proposal for vegan school lunches), what she has done has cost her support
among M5S activists and working-class voters, who backed her because they felt the PD had
grown too close to the city's elite. The mayor has sidestepped her movement's commitment to
blocking a high-speed rail link through the Alps, explaining that she is powerless to stop it. And
she has balked at taking the management of the local water consortium out of private hands.

This is almost treasonable for the M5S. Public ownership ofwater is one ofthe five "star" issues
that give the movement its name. "The M5S has always been on our side," complains
Mariangela Rosolen, a veteran campaigner for de-privatising the locai water consortium. Ms
Rosolen says activists are considering a demonstration against Ms Appendino. That could mark a
turning point in her fortunes. But for her admirers, it would be evidence of her ability to stick
shrewdly to a middle path that might one day lead her to national office.

Her party's chances of giving her that opportunity look ever better. Since Mr Renzi's government
fell in December, the right has failed to unite, while the left has squabbled ruinously. Matteo
Salvini, leader ofthe nationalist Northem League, has wrenched his party rightwards, turning it
into an Italian reflection ofMarine Le Pen's National Front. That makes it harder to ally with
Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right Forza Italia party. Meanwhile, the mutiny in the PD may leave it
unable to win a generai election. Mr Renzi complained that the mutineers were "giving Mr Grillo
a nice present". That is hard to dispute.

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline ''A tale of two mayors"
aeon

What is global history now?


Historians cheered globalism with work about
cosmopolitans and border-crossing, but the
power of piace never went away
Jeremy Adelman

Well, that was a short ride. Not long ago, one of the world's leading historians, Lynn Hunt,
stated with confidence in Writing History in the Global Era (2014) that a more global
approach to the past would do for our age what national history did in the heyday of nation-
building: it would, as Jean-Jacques Rousseau had said was necessary of the nation-builders,
remake people from the inside out. Global history would produce tolerant and
cosmopolitan global citizens. It rendered the past a mirror on our future border-crossing
selves - not unlike Barack Obama, the son of a Kenyan father and white American mother,
raised in Indonesia and educated in the Ivy League, who became the passing figure of our
fading dreams of meritocracy without walls.
Tue mild-mannered German historian Jiirgen Osterhammel might serve as an example of
that global tum. When his book The Transformation of the World: A Global History of the 19th
Century (2014) carne out in English, one reviewer baptised him the new Femand Braudel. It
was already a sensation in Germany. One day, Osterhammel's office phone at the University
of Konstanz rang. On the other end of the line was the country' s chancellor, Angela Merkel.
'You don't check your SMSs,' she scolded lightly. At the time, Merkel was on the mend from
a broken pelvis and the politica! fallout of the Eurocrisis. While recovering, she' d read
Osterhammel's 1,200-page book for therapy. She was calling to invite the author to ber
60th-birthday party to lecture her guests about time and global perspectives. Obsessed with
the rise of China and the consequences of digitalisation, she had turned to the sage of the
moment: the global historian.

It's hard to imagine Osterhammel getting invited to the party now. In our fevered present of
Nation-X First, of resurgent ethno-nationalism, what's the point of recovering global pasts?
Merkel, daughter of the East, might be the improbable last voice of Atlantic Charter
internationalism. Two years after her 60th birthday, the vision of an integrated future and
spreading tolerance is beating a hasty retreat.

What is to become of this approach to the past, one that a short time ago promised to re-
image a vintage discipline? What would global narratives look like in the age of an anti-
global backlash? Does the rise of 'America First', 'China First', 'India First' and 'Russia First'
mean that the dreams and work of globe-narrating historians were just a bender, a neo-
liberal joyride?

U ntil very recently, the practice of modern history centred on, and was dominated by, the
nation state. Most history was the history of the nation. If you wander through the history
and biography aisles of either brick-and-mortar or virtual bookstores, the characters and
heroes of patriotism dominate. In the United States, authors such as Walter Isaacson, David
McCullough and Doris Keams Goodwin bave helped to give millions of readers their
understanding of the past and the present. Inevitably, they wrote page-turning profiles of
heroic nation-builders. Every nation cherishes its national history, and every country has a
cadre of flame-keepers.

Then, along carne globalisation and the shake-up of old, bordered imaginations. Historians
quickly responded to the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crumbling protective ramparts of
national capitalism, the boom in container shipping, and the rise of the cosmopolis. New
scales and new concepts carne to life. Europe's Schengen Agreement, inked in 1985, the
North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993, and the founding of the World Trade
Organization in 1995, heralded new levels of international fusion. These now-imperilled
treaties promised a borderless world. 'Tue world is being flattened,' Thomas Friedman's
popular manifesto of globalisation, The World Is Flat (2005), concluded. 'I didn't start it and
you can't stop it,' Friedman wrote in an open letter to his daughter, 'except at great cast to
human development and your own future.'

As the only game in town, globalisation produced a new popular genre that might be called
patriotic globalism. Samantha Power's A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide
(2002), Philip Gourevitch's We Wish to Inform You Ihat Tomorrow We Will Be Killed with Our
Families (1998), and books by Adam Hochschild all gave us horrible crises with would-be
heroes fashioned, not as nation-builders, but as humanitarian worldmakers. There was also
a surge of stories about a shared, planetary future, with a common, carbon-addicted past.
Tue Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992 tumed sustainability into a border-busting
buzzword and fuelled environmental history. Two decades earlier, Alfred Crosby could not
find a publisher who wanted his book Ihe Columbian Exchange (1972), which charted the
ecological fallout of the integration of the New World biome into the Eurasian system. Now,
his book is Biblical.

After years of falling enrolments, declining majors and a


dispiriting job market, many saw 'global history' as an elixir
In 2006, the scholars jumped officially on board. A team founded the Journal of Global
History. Patrick O'Brien at the London School of Economics kicked it off with a call for new
cosmopolitan meta-narratives
<http:/I eprints.lse.ac.uk/26471/1/__libfile_REPOSITORY_Content_0%27Brien,%20P _His
torical%20traditions%20and%20modem%20imperatives%20for%20the%20restoration%20
of%20global%20history_Historical%20traditions%20and%20modern%20imperatives%20fo
r%20the%20restoration%20of%20global%20history%20(LSE%20RO).pdf> for 'our
globalising world'. It was dedicated to stories to transcend (quoting the 18th-century Tory
philosopher Lord Bolingbroke) 'national partialities and prejudices'. Behind the scenes,
universities in Europe (which includes, for a few more months at least, the United
Kingdom), pockets in Japan, China and Brazil, but most especially in the US, rolled out new
courses, new research centres, and new PhD programmes.

After years of falling enrolments, declining majors and a dispiriting job market for history
PhDs, many saw 'global history' as an elixir, a way to retum to public relevance.
Globalisation had become all the rage. Historians, Hunt wrote in 2014, were stepping up
with narratives of interconnection and integration. Jared Diamond's works, synthesising
13,000 years of global history, populated airport newsstands. To get middle- and high-
school students jazzed up about history on a cosmological scale - '13.8 Billion Years of
History. Free. Online. Awesome' - Bill Gates unveiled his Big History Project. More recently,
Sven Beckert's Empire of Cotton: A Global History (2014) swept prizes and hit No 1 on
Amazon's bestseller ranks under the 'Fashion and Textile' category.

To understand what global history was, it helps to understand what it was supposed to
eclipse. It used to be that, in the US, history departments had their cores in American
and/or European fields; in Canada, Australia and Britain, the nuclei were also national.
History meant the history of the nation, its peoples and their origins. When social and
cultura! history carne along, it changed the subject from presidents or prime ministers to
Hollywood or garment workers. But the framework remained mostly national; historians
stili wrote books about the making of the English working class, or the conversion of
peasants into French citizens. There might be a smattering of East Asian or Latin American
historians in the mix. Often, they were cordoned into regional studies units, or lumped - as
in my home department at Princeton - as 'non-Western historians', defined by their
fundamental difference, there to embellish but not challenge the national canon. Tue major
exception was the study of migrations and diasporas, coerced or free. But even those fields
tended to sit alongside the national behemoths; there was the American history survey (or
French, or British), and then the story of African-Americans.

True, there has long been something called 'world history'. Tue standard world history
course was a tour of the civilisations that preceded or abutted 'Western Civilisation'. Tue
Western Civ industry dated to the early years of the 20th century. Back then, faced with
creeping specialisation, historians got summoned to offer a structured base for the national
collegian-citizen. With household names such as Arnold Toynbee and Will and Ariel Durant
it boomed, like the rest of American industry, in the golden age of NATO, Sputnik and
federal spending. One of its greatest figures was the University of Chicago historian William
H McNeill, author of the stand-by History of Western Civilisation: A Handbook (1949). As
Western Civ became something of a relic in the 1960s, 'world history' or 'world civilisations'
took its piace to explain the Triumph of the West and, by extension, the Decline of the Rest.
McNeill's epic 1he Rise of the West (1963) was the high-standard bearer for this kind of
encompassing view
<http://www.conspiracyschool.com/sites/default/files/journal_articles/Allerydyce%20-
%20Rise%20and%20Fall%20of%20the%20Western%20Civilization%20Course _O.pdf> of
the planetary past composed of civilisational blocs competing for global supremacy. This
was not global history, though many subsequent global historians cut their teeth studying
other civilisations. Rather, it was a story that brought in the Rest to help explain the West.

Connection was in; networks were hot: global history would


show the latticework of exchanges and encounters
By the 1980s, it was no longer foregone that the Rest was synonymous with decline, or the
West with rise. Tue Rest, to some, became the new threat to define the purpose of the West.
Samuel Huntington's 1he Clash of Civilisations and the Remaking of World Order (1996)
offered a counterpoint to the emerging bravura of one-world heroism. In Huntington's view,
the essentially dark, antagonistic, competitive perspective of the world-civilisations
approach remained the driving force of history. Don't kid yourself, he argued: the fall of the
Berlin Wall merely heralded the return of an older, deeper civilisational conflict. That
message has new treads with the White House chief strategist Steve Bannon's prophecies
about the inevitable collision of the 'Judeo-Christian West' with the Jihadist East. 'There is a
major war brewing, a war that's already global,' he told an audience in 2014. 'Every day that
we refuse to look at this as what it is, and the scale of it, and really the viciousness of it, will
be a day where you will rue that we didn't act.'

Tue notion of intractable divides, however, seemed increasingly at odds with the high-def,
global-fusing present; it mobilised a new generation of historians to go beyond stories of our
walled-off, essential selves. Their global history project would reveal connections across
societies instead of cohesions within them. Tue vintage comparative, civilisational
framework gave way to contacts and linkages. Connection was in; networks were hot.
Global history would show the latticework of exchanges and encounters - from the Silk
Road of 1300 to turbo-charged supply chains of 2000.

More than anyone, Sanjay Subrahmanyam, now at the University of California, Los Angeles,
made the coinage of 'connected histories <https://www.jstor.org/stable/312798?
seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents> 'bis own. As determined to dethrone the myth of Indian
civilisation (whose Hindutva ideology is dear to the tribalism of India's Right-wing
Bharatiya Janata Party) as he is to dispel the idea of a Great European Trajectory (from
Athens to the Enlightenment, a march dear to European tribalists), the son of urbane Delhi
turned encounters and contacts with many origin points and as many meanings into a
global bricolage that antedated our multicultural makeups. Through travel, discovery,
translation and the flow of books, silver and opium - 'histories that moved' as
Subrahmanyam called them in his inaugura! lecture
<http://books.openedition.org/cdf/3606> at the Collège de France in 2013 - he evoked a
world laced together long before the rise of the West.

Global history's other signature was its emphasis on dependence between societies. If
globalisation opened the borders between Westerners and Resterners, global historians
were especially interested not just in the contacts, but in the ways in which countries and
regions contoured each other. Tue rise of the West looked more and more not just like a
response to the Rest, but dependent on it. Even the industria! revolution and Europe's great
leap forward in the 19th century, the one thing that seemed to separate Europe from others,
carne under the global historian's macroscope. In The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and
the Making of the Modem World Economy (2000), Kenneth Pomeranz demolished the view of
Europeans as the authors of their own miraculous rise. He revealed how much European
enterprise and accumulation shared with China. How Europe's break from the common,
Eurasian-Malthusian straightjacket began not with the region's internal uniqueness, but
with access to and conquest of what Adam Smith called the wastelands of the Americas. In
the same vein, global historians demonstrated how much insurance, banking and shipping
startups owed to the African slave trade. Tue European miracle was, in short, a global
harvest.

Global history did not mean telling the story of everything in the world. What was global
was not the object of study, but the emphasis on connections, scale and, most of all,
integration. Even the nations and civilisations were more the products and less the
producers of global interactions. Some scholars went all-out. 'If you are not doing an
explicitly transnational, international or global project, you now have to explain why you are
not,' said <http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/armitage/files/s0165115312000551a.pdf?
m=1360043141> the Harvard historian David Armitage in 2012. 'Tue hegemony of national
historiography,' he pronounced, 'is over.'

No sooner did historians catch the globalisation wave with fancy new courses, magazines,
textbooks and attention, than the wave seemed to collapse. Tue story changed. A powerful
politica! movement arose against 'globalism'. White-supremacists and Vladimir Putin fans
from the Traditionalist Worker Party in the US proclaim as their slogan that 'Globalism is
the poison, nationalism is the antidote.' Donald Trump put it only a bit more mildly.
'Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo,' he thundered to cheering Republicans in
his convention speech in July 2016. On the day after the US inaugurated Trump, the French
presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen gave an incendiary speech at a summit in Germany,
calling 2017 the year of the great awakening of the nationalist Right. 'We are living through
the end of one world,' she proclaimed, 'and the birth of another.'

Suddenly, global historians seemed out of step with their times. If the backlash was a wake-
up call for the globalisers, it also revealed some problems for the global chroniclers.

All narratives are selective, shaped as much by what they exclude as what they include.
Despite the mantras of integration and the inclusion on the planetary scale, global history
carne with its own segregation - starting with language. Historians working across borders
merged their mode of communication in ways that created new walls; in the search for
academic cohesion, English became Globish. Global history would not be possible without
the globalisation of the English language. In a recent workshop in Tokyo, I marvelled as
Italians, Chine se and Japanese historians swapped ideas and sake in a lingua franca. But this
kind of flatness can mask a new linguistic hierarchy. It is one of the paradoxes of global
history that the drive to overcome Eurocentrism contributed to the Anglicising of
intellectual lives around the world. As English became Globish, there was less incentive to
learn foreign languages - the indispensable key to bridging ourselves and others.
According to a 2015 report
<https://www.mla.org/content/download/31180/1452509/EMB_enrllmnts_nonEngl_201
3.pdf> by the Modem Languages Association, the US foreign-language head count at
universities peaked in 2009, and has been declining ever since.

Global history is another Anglospheric invention to integrate the


Other into a cosmopolitan narrative on our terms, in our
tongues
Tue retreat from learning how to talk with others reflected a wider stall. Despite the
embrace of global history, there is evidence that the global turn didn't actually help to raise
the profile of the Rest. In a 2013 survey <https://www.historians.org/publications-and-
directories/perspectives-on-history/may-2013/its-a-small-world-after-all> of 57 history
departments in the UK, the US and Canada, Luke Clossey and Nicholas Guyatt show that
historians remain pretty loyal to the West after ali. In the UK, 13 per cent of historians study
the non-Western world. Tue most wincing datum? East Asia commands only 1.9 per cent of
ali history faculty appointments in the UK. In the US, the figure is almost 9 per cent. Even in
the US, less than one-third of historians are interested in the world beyond the West. If
some critics were getting ali worked up about the encroachment of Resterners on the
Western Civ canon, they needn't worry. 'We're overwhelmingly interested in ourselves,'
Clossey and Gyatt conclude. To justify Brexit, the UK's prime minister Theresa May yearns
fora 'Global Britain' (as if Europe were not part ofthe globe), but UK historians still look
inwards; 41 per cent of historians in the UK study Britain and Ireland, homelands to 1 per
cent of the world's population. Oxford University, my alma mater, recently mothballed its
professorship in Latin American history, the last of its kind in the UK. Outside the
Anglosphere, things are mostly worse. In all the German-speaking universities, there are
only five professors of African history. In Japan, to study non-Japanese and non-'Oriental'
pasts means dispatch from history departments altogether, to teach about the Other in
other units on the margins of the master-discipline.

What are we to make of all this? First, the high hopes for cosmopolitan narratives about
'encounters' between Westerners and Resterners led to some pretty one-way exchanges
about the shape of the global. It is hard not to conclude that global history is another
Anglospheric invention to integrate the Other into a cosmopolitan narrative on our terms, in
our tongues. Sort of like the wider world economy.

Secondly, to some extent, global history sounds like history fit for the now-defunct Clinton
Global Initiative, a shiny, high-profile endeavour emphasising borderless, do-good
storytelling about our cosmopolitan commonness, global history to give globalisation a
human face. It privileged motion over piace, histoires qui bougent (stories that move) over
tales of those who got left behind, narratives about others for the selves who felt some
connection - of shared self-interest or empathy - between far-flung neighbours of the
global cosmopolis.

Perhaps we should not be shocked at the backlash against post-national, cosmopolitan


story-telling. During the French regional elections of 2015, one Front National poster
featured two women's faces, one painted with the French tricolour and the other wearing a
burqa. Tue text proclaimed: 'Choose your neighborhood: vote for the Front.' Tue logie of
global history tended to dwell on integration and concord, rather than disintegration and
discord. Global historians favoured stories about curiosity towards distant neighbours. They
- we - tended to overlook nearby neighbourhoods dissolved by transnational supply
chains.

Global history preferred a scale that reflected its cosmopolitan self-yearnings. It also
implicitly created what the sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild in Strangers in 1heir Own
Land (2016) called 'empathy walls' between globe-trotting liberals and locally rooted
provincials. Going global often meant losing contact with - to borrow another of her bons
mots - 'deep stories' of resentment about loss of and threat to locai attachments. Tue older
patriotic narratives had tethered people to a sense of bounded unity. Tue new,
cosmopolitan, global narratives crossed those boundaries. But they dissolved the
heartlanders' ties to a sense of piace in the world. In a politica! climate dominated by railing
against Leviathan government, big banks, mega-treaties with inscrutable acronyms such as
TPP, and distant Eurocrats, the pretentious drive to replace deep stories of near-mourning
with global stories of distant connection was bound to face its limits. In the scramble to
make Others part of our stories, we inadvertently created a new swath of strangers at home.

Global history faces two seemingly opposite challenges for an inter-dependent, over-
heating planet. If we are going to muster meaningful narratives about the togetherness of
strangers near and far, we are going to have to be more global and get more serious about
engaging other languages and other ways of telling history. Historians and their reader-
citizens are also going to have to re-signify the piace of locai attachments and meanings.
Going deeper into the stories of Others afar and Strangers at home means dispensing with
the idea that global integration was like an electric circuit, bringing light to the connected.
Becoming inter-dependent is not just messier than drawing a wiring diagram. It means
reckoning with dimensions of networks and circuits that global historians - and possibly all
narratives of cosmopolitan convergence - leave out of the story: lighting up corners of the
earth leaves others in the dark. Tue story of the globalists illuminates some at the expense
of others, the left behind, the ones who cannot move, and those who become immobilised
because the light no longer shines on them.

To shift the imagery: understanding inter-dependence means seeing how it expands


persona! and socia! horizons for some, but also thins bonds with others. At least until those
bonds become more meaningful than an Instagram list, there will be much more resistance
to integration than we have admitted.

To gain better insights into the dynamics and resistances to integration, to give as much
airtime to separation, disintegration and fragility as we do to connection, integration and
convergence, we are going to have to get rid of flat-Earth narratives and ideas of global
predestination once and forali. We are going to have to account for how more
interdependence can yield more conflict, how for instance, despite growing trade and
student exchanges between China and Japan, Beijing can announce (as it did in 2014) two
new national holidays to commemorate the victims of Japanese aggression from 1937 to
1945.

Connection, mobility, fusion, oneness: we put our stock in the magnetism of the market and
the empathetic power of a cosmopolitan spirit that appeared to take hold of the upper
echelons of a higher education committed to an idyll of global citizenship.

I did my own part in the global pivot. For severa! years, I oversaw Princeton's
internationalisation drive, creating global knowledge supply chains. It never occurred to me,
or to others, to ask: what would happen to those less sexy, diminutive, scales of civic
engagement? We didn't worry much. They were the remits of provincialism, quietly escorted
from the stage upon which we were supposed to be educating the new homo globus.

During globalisation's up-cycle, it was easier to overlook the divides. When economies
slumped, and globalisation fatigue set in, the gauzy veil carne off.

This does not make global history less pressing. On the contrary. One of the ironies is that
the anti-globalism movement is immersed in transnational mutuai adoration networks. Tue
day after the Brexit plebiscite, Trump travelled to the UK to reopen his golf resort. Tue
British had 'taken back their country', he told the bristle of microphones, then retumed
home to Make America Great Again. Le Pen's excitement about Trump is well-known.
Fyodor V Biryukov, head of Rodina, the Russian Motherland Party, calls this swarm 'a new
global revolution'. It was, we should recall, the global financial crisis of 2008-9 that did the
most to ravage the hopes of one-world dreamers, emanating from the sector that had gone
furthest to fuse Westemers and Resterners while creating deeper divides at home: banking.
In short, we need narratives of global life that reckon with disintegration as well as
integration, the costs and not just the bounty of interdependence. They might not do well
on the chirpy TED-talk circuit, compete with Friedman's unbridled faith in borderless
technocracy, or appeal much to Davos Man. But if we are going to come to terms with the
deep histories of global transformations, we need to remind ourselves of one of the
historian's crafts, and listen to the other half of the globe, the tribalists out there and right
here, talking back.

aeon.co 02 March, 2017


ARGOMENTI

Continua il lento CONCORRENZA E MERCATI

CONTI PUBBLICI
miglioramento nel
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
mercato del lavoro
DISCRI MI NAZI ON E
03.03.17
Michele Pellizzari ENERGIA E AMBIENTE

EUROPA

FAMIGLIA
I dati confermano che negli ultimi mesi non si
FINANZA
è arrestato il lento ma progressivo
miglioramento del mercato del lavoro. La FISCO
decontribuzione ha avuto un ruolo importante,
GIUSTIZIA
ma è stata un investimento ragionevole in
tempo di crisi. Più difficile indicare il IMMIGRAZIONE

contributo del Jobs act.


IMPRESE

I numeri del mercato del lavoro INFORMAZIONE

INFRASTRUTTURE E TRASPORTI
Con la pubblicazione dei dati Istat sulle forze
di lavoro per il mese di gennaio 2017 si INNOVAZIONE E RICERCA
completa il quadro delle statistiche disponibili
INTERNAZIONALI
per comprendere le più recenti dinamiche del
nostro mercato del lavoro. Qualche giorno ISTITUZIONI E FEDERALISMO
prima l'Inps aveva già diffuso le statistiche
LAVORO
per il mese di dicembre 2016 del suo
Osservatorio del precariato e diversi MEZZOGIORNO

commentatori avevano tentato di leggerne


vuoi uno straordinario successo vuoi uno
scottante fallimento delle politiche per il
lavoro del governo Renzi, Jobs act e
decontribuzioni in primo luogo.
Proviamo per un momento ad astenerci dal
fornire un'interpretazione dei numeri in
funzione di una valutazione degli interventi di
Renzi e limitiamoci a leggere i dati nella loro
semplice freddezza. Le notizie in fondo non
sono cattive, anzi, piuttosto buone, soprattutto
alla luce dei bollettini di guerra ai quali ci
eravamo abituati durante la crisi, almeno dalla
metà del 2008 e fino al 2014.
Gli occupati aumentano di circa 30mila unità
rispetto a dicembre e confermano un trend
crescente. Tra l'altro, l'aumento si registra
nonostante una diminuzione non indifferente
degli occupati a tempo determinato, 28mila
unità pari all' 1,1 per cento. Il tasso di
disoccupazione rimane stabile,
apparentemente a causa di una crescita sia del
numero di persone in cerca di occupazione sia
di una diminuzione degli inattivi, anche
quest'ultima una buona notizia. Infine, e
questa è davvero un'ottima notizia, la
disoccupazione scende finalmente tra i giovani
(15-24 anni). Il tasso di disoccupazione dei
15-24enni rimane inaccettabile, al 37,9 per
cento, ma è diminuito di 1,3 punti percentuali.
In definitiva, i dati confermano che negli
ultimi mesi non si è arrestato il lento ma
progressivo miglioramento del nostro mercato
del lavoro che, con alti e bassi, è in corso
da almeno un paio di anni. Naturalmente,
rimangono ancora moltissimi elementi di
profonda insoddisfazione: nel confronto con i
partner europei, i nostri principali indicatori di
occupazione e disoccupazione restano tra i
peggiori e altri paesi stanno recuperando più
rapidamente il terreno perso durante la grande
crisi. È innegabile, però, che un certo
miglioramento ci sia stato.

Ruolo di Jobs act e decontribuzioni

Veniamo ora all'interpretazione dei dati. Le


questioni mi sembrano principalmente due.
Primo, in che misura il miglioramento può
essere attribuito alle politiche del governo
Renzi? Secondo, quale è l'importanza relativa
delle decontribuzioni fiscali e degli aspetti
strutturali del Jobs act, primo fra tutti il
contratto a tutele crescenti? Naturalmente,
rispondere a queste domande con rigore
scientifico richiederebbe analisi più
approfondite (che sono in corso, ma delle
quali ancora non abbiamo notizie certe).
Ciononostante, credo che si possa azzardare
qualche interpretazione basata sul buon senso
e sulla conoscenza del funzionamento del
mercato del lavoro in generale.
L'aspetto sul quale si può già rispondere con
una certa consapevolezza è il ruolo delle
decontribuzioni fiscali. Il forte aumento degli
occupati nel 2015 e la crescita comunque
positiva ma più lenta nel 2016 sembra
corrispondere molto chiaramente
all'introduzione degli sconti fiscali e poi al
loro ridimensionamento. Molti commentatori
si sono accaniti contro tale provvedimento
sostenendo che abbia avuto semplicemente
l'effetto di far anticipare assunzioni o
trasformazioni di contratti temporanei che si
sarebbero fatte comunque. Vero, verissimo.
Ma l'anticipo è proprio ciò che ci si aspetta da
una misura anti-ciclica e non strutturale, ideata
quindi per ridurre l'impatto negativo di una
congiuntura economica negativa anche a costo
di limitare il rimbalzo positivo quando la
congiuntura migliora. Mi sembra quindi una
critica poco appropriata.
Una questione più interessante riguarda il
costo delle decontribuzioni, circa il 30 per
cento del costo del lavoro nella sua versione
più generosa del 2015. Data la gravità della
crisi che abbiamo attraversato e la lentezza
della ripresa, credo che si tratti di un
investimento ragionevole.
Molto più difficile capire quale sia il ruolo del
Jobs act e del suo contratto a tutele crescenti.
In questo caso, il problema principale è
separare il suo potenziale effetto da quello
della generale ripresa economica, di una
congiuntura economica mondiale che è
comunque migliorata notevolmente negli
ultimi due-tre anni. Anche in questo caso,
tuttavia, il buon senso suggerisce che in
generale l'effetto dovrebbe essere positivo,
almeno sul fronte dell'occupazione totale.
DifficilD JIClllSllD' cha l'inD:oduzione del
conlratrD tutl!le ~·ti diJincmlivi le
USllllZioni. Naturalmente, p• chi pllllll che
l'miica fmma di 1avmo degna di l9llSCIJ'e
CODSidlllata positivammte 11ia il lavom a
tempo ÌDlll!tCIImilla CODlll dafinito dalla
mmna1iva pm-Jobll act, l'mivo del con1IaUo a
tuu!le - t i à UDa cattiva notizia per
definizione•, anche se av- pmrato un
-
a~ ..l-wU -
· - - " - u,g6Y - r - - di"'
.......,,..,.,.; ' "
!!1mN>l10lD.

CODSidcnvoli.
In c:onc1uaiane, llUlla bllse dai dati oggi
di1pom1n1i 11 in attesa di llJ!aHù pià dettagliate,
mi llCllllbm si posaa ragioncwolmcmre affimmre
che dtioontribuzioni 111011& acthmmo con tutta
probamJid contribuito al MCllltll
migliomm..,to del 110111m mm:ato, sia llllDa
aua compammte ciclica cliii strutturale. La
definizioo11 Clll&Ua dl!lla djmcmsl1111C1 di tale
conlribulD nsta Cllitamllllll da c:apinl.

In ~sto articolo si parla


di: ntribuzione, Iobs Act, men:ato del
lavoro, occupazione

DIO DBLL'AUTOltE

MIOfELE pe I IZZARI

Michele P11mZZ11ri à
profmaore cli
CICOilOlllia
all'univeIBità di
GineVIa dove dirige
anche il Laboratoire
d'écmmnie
Appliquée. In
Jm""'d•7J! à Blllto
CICOilOlllista pmsso
l'Organizzazione per la Coopmazione 11
lo Sviluppo Economico (OCSB) a Parigi
11 ha insegnato CIC'OOomia pmsso
l'Università Bocconi di Milano. È senior
fellow della Fondazione Rodolfo
Debenedetti e Research Fellow
dell'lstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
di Bonn. PhD in economics alla London
School of Economics e dottorato in
economia presso l'università di Verona,
ha trascorso periodi di ricerca presso le
università di Stanford e Berkeley. I suoi
principali interessi di ricerca sono nelle
aree dell'economia del lavoro,
dell'istruzione e dell'econometria
applicata. Redattore de lavoce.info.
Altri articoli di Michele Pellizzari
MARKO DJURICA I REUTERS

SNAPSHOT February 28, 2017

A World Without Borders


Richer, Fairer, and More Free

By Nathan Smith

A
cross the West today, a rising populist right is blaming established elites for letting in too
many immigrants. The immigrants, the populists complain, lower wages, dilute the local
culture, and pose a threat to national security. But even as anti-immigrant sentiment gains
ground, a small but growing band of open borders advocates is reaching the apposite
conclusion: Western elites aren't letting in too many immigrants-they are letting in too few. These
advocates, including the author, call fora regime of nearly complete freedom of migration
worldwide, with rare exceptions for preventing terrorism or the spread of contagious disease.
Borders would still exist in such a world, but as jurisdictional boundaries rather than as barriers to
human movement. Ending migration controls in this way would increase liberty, reduce global
poverty, and accelerate economie growth. But more fundamentally, it would challenge the right of
governments to regulate migration on the arbitrary grounds of sovereignty.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 1/14
uoernes. vv nen me ~tatue or Lmerty was erecteo m nszso, most or me worm s ooroers coma oe
freely crossed without passports. Passport requirements had sometimes existed before and were still
in place in backward tsarist Russia, but the more liberal governments of advanced European nations
regulated migration, as modem democracies regulate speech, only rather lightly and in exceptional
cases, if at all. Comprehensive restrictions on international movement, which almost everyone
today regards as a normal and necessary government function, are really an innovation of the
twentieth century, which emerged as liberalism gave way to nationalism and socialism in the wake
of World War I. Although the reasons for border control were often explicitly racist-such as the
national origins quotas of the 1924 U.S. Immigration Act-the restrictions were also motivateci by
bona fide national security concerns, as well as a desire to protect native wages and welfare states
from immigrant competition and foreign dependents.

The open borders position may sound new and radical, but it is simply a call far the
return of lost liberties.

More so than in the nineteenth century, open borders today would lead to an epic migration of
peoples. Gallup has estimateci that 640 million people worldwide want to emigrate from their
current country of residence. Yet the true number could be much greater-economists such as John
Kennan predict that in the absence of border controls, global labor markets would tend toward
equilibrium, which in practice would mean the migration of several billion people to the West. (In
the short to medium run, the true number of immigrants would be closer to Gallup's estimates, but
over the long run that figure might reach into the billions, as stocks of immigrants and their
descendants accumulate in destination countries.) The more efficient allocation of labor would
result in global increases in productivity, leading the world economy to nearly double in size. This
increased economie activity would, moreover, disproportionately benefit the world's poorest
people.

Despite the potential gains, however, a common-and natural-reaction to the prospective


migration of billions of people is to dismiss it as an absurd and intolerable outcome. This may be an
irrational response, but that does not necessarily make it wrong. The conservative politica! theorist
Edmund Burke shrewdly recognized, in his 1790 pamphlet Reflections on the Revolution in France,
that supposedly irrational prejudice can be a force for good in politics, as it favors the accumulateci
wisdom of generations against a type of abstract thinking that is prone to dangerous naiveté. Yet
complete deference to irrational prejudice would preclude rational reform and moral progress
altogether. With that in mind, there are two compelling reasons why people should override their
instinctive aversion to open borders and give the proposal rational consideration. First, open
borders could plausibly ameliorate or even end world poverty, a result that it is worth taking risks to
achieve. Second, immigration enforcement is an ugly business, separating families and leading to

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 2/14
A MORAL QUESTION

The issue of borders is as much a moral question as it is one of policy calculation. Assessing any
given outcome requires deciding on an ethical framework by which to evaluate and compare
alternatives. That is a question for moral philosophy. And today, the prevailing modem moral
philosophies, such as those derived from the works of Jeremy Bentham, Immanuel Kant, and John
Rawls, are all universalist and egalitarian-that is, they treat all human beings as having the same
inherent value and moral nature, even if their concrete rights and duties vary owing to
circumstance. These theories are inhospitable to those features of premodern ethical thought, such
as prescriptive communal loyalties and the di:fferentiation of people by race, sex, and other traits,
that still seem to influence the thinking of most immigration critics. The theories thus tend to favor
open borders.

The issue of borders is as much a moral question as it is one ofpolicy calculation.

This is the case regardless of which specifìc theory is chosen. Utilitarianism, for instance, attempts
to maximize the total happiness, or "utility," experienced by individuals, all of whom are valued
equally. On the question of open borders, a utilitarian would argue that even if some Westerners
might su:ffer, the utility gained by billions of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and
other impoverished places easily outweighs the Westerners' inconvenience. Another popular moral
theory, laid out by John Rawls in his 1971 book, A Theory of]ustice, asks what kind of social order
people would design if placed behind a "veil of ignorance" -that is, if they did not know what their
own piace in the social order would be. Open borders advocates argue that no one, from behind the
veil of ignorance, would design a world in which they had an 80 percent chance of being born in a
poor country and trapped there, just so that if they turned out to be part of the lucky 20 percent
born in rich countries, they would avoid having some awkward neighbors.

Immigration critics tend not to make counterarguments within these universalist frameworks but
rather reject the frameworks altogether, arguing, for instance, that countries should privilege the
interests of their citizens over foreigners. In his 2013 book, Exodus, Paul Collier, a leading
development economist and another immigration critic, dismisses utilitarian universalist ethics as
"the stu:ff of teenage dreams," before suggesting that nations have something called "existence
value," such that the people of Mali should not be allowed to extinguish Mali through a universal
exodus. Yet the strongest argument for migration restrictions is one that applies even if utilitarian
universalism is accepted. For if open borders would somehow ruin the special something that makes
the rich countries rich, the benefìt to immigrants not only might be reduced but could be
overwhelmed by the loss of global public goods, such as technological innovation and international

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 3/14
ALKIS KONSTANTINIDIS I REUTERS

RISK AND REWARD

It is di:fficult to say with any fìnality why some countries are rich and others are poor, meaning that
it is also di:fficult to evaluate how mass migration might a:ffect global well-being. Some explanations
are more favorable to the prospect of open borders than others. If geography is the determining
factor in comparative development, as the geographer Jared Diamond has argued, then letting
people move from poorly endowed and unproductive places to more wealthy and productive ones
may have little downside. If human capital is more important-if the people in rich countries are
more productive for reasons of nature or nurture-then open borders will do little good, since
migrants will bring their low productivity with them, but also little harm, since citizens of the rich
West will retain their own high productivity and consequent high living standards. But probably the
most influential explanation of the relative wealth and poverty of nations holds that successful
development is the result of high-quality institutions. There would be reason to oppose
immigration, therefore, ifa massive influx of immigrants from developing countries would dilute
and damage the precious institutional heritage of the West, thus killing the goose that lays the
golden eggs.

Evaluating whether it would do so requires making a distinction between productivity-enhancing


institutions, such as sophisticated fìnancial and legal systems undergirded by a robust rule of law,
and social safety-net institutions. The former enable the West to produce an abundance of goods
and services, and the latter redistribute those goods and services to the relatively needy among
Western populations. Although the distinction is not always clear-cut, some institutions, such as
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 4/14
It is these social safety-net institutions that, in a world with open borders, might have to go.
Without migration controls it would probably be impossible for Western governments to maintain
social safety nets, in the sense of public programs guaranteeing a decent standard of living to all
residents residing within a country's territory. At current levels of benefits, a vast influx of
immigrants would bankrupt the welfare state, as newcomers would not be able to pay enough in
taxes to finance the benefits to which they would be entitled. (A possible solution might involve
curtailing welfare programs, or at least their generosity to the foreign-born.) It follows that open
borders would probably lead to a large increase in visible extreme poverty in the West. Yet
impoverishment by Western standards looks like affiuence to much of the world. And far from
creating such poverty, open borders would actually be alleviating it. The new huddled masses,
although worse off than the average Western natives, would be better off in their new countries than
they were at home. The only difference would be that without borders, Westerners would see the
poverty that today is kept comfortably out of sight.

Impoverishment by Western standards looks like affiuence to much of the world.

There is no obvious reason, however, why the West's wealth-fostering institutions could not operate
as least as effectively amid much larger and poorer populations as they do today. The United States
during the Gilded Age and the United Kingdom during the Victorian era had impoverished
proletariats, but that did not prevent them from achieving rapid economie growth. On the contrary,
economists and economie historians such as Tyler Cowen, Robert Gordon, and Alexander Field
have argued that the period from 1880 to 1940 was the zenith of technological progress, especially
compared with the relative stagnation of recent decades. Of course, the proletariat of Victorian
England was British, and a foreign-born proletariat might conceivably be more destabilizing to
wealth-fostering institutions than a native one. And although history provides few if any examples
of a country's institutions being damaged, or its productivity being reduced, by peaceful migration,
it also affords few if any examples of peaceful migration on the scale predicted by economie models
of open borders. So caution is reasonable.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 5/14
A migrant at a protest in the 'Jungle" refugee camp in Calais, France, October 2016.

Yet it is also reasonable to ask how much coercion caution can justify. Enforcing today's border
regime requires separating families and imperiling people's lives-a difficult thing to justify on the
basis not of clear and present dangers but of speculative fears about long-run harms. A 2013 study
by Human Impact Partners found that about 150,000 children are separated from one or both
parents every year by U.S. deportation policies, and smaller numbers have been murdered as a
direct and foreseeable consequence of deportation to countries where they had reason to fear
violence. There is, moreover, a fundamental tension between the ideal of due process and the reality
of immigration enforcement regimes that give officials enormous and arbitrary power aver people's
lives. In the United States, immigration enforcement often clashes with the right of habeas corpus,
since people who have committed no imprisonable offense can get stuck in indefinite detention.
With due process compromised, mistakes happen, and U.S. Immigration and Customs
Enforcement has mistakenly deported thousands of U.S. citizens. Such practices would be
troubling even if they were the desperate expedients of a nation during wartime.

But as harsh as U.S. immigration enforcement is, it does not prevent millions from coming, because
the benefìts of living in the United States are so great. If enforcement were still harsher, the
incentive to come would be reduced but not eliminated, and human rights, including those of
native-born citizens, would be violated even more severely. Many prefer amnesty as a solution:
large majorities of Americans-a recent Gallup poll put the number at 65 percent-favor granting a
path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. But amnesty gives foreigners a strong incentive
to illegally migrate in the hope of benefìting from the next amnesty. In the two decades after U.S.
President Ronald Reagan signed the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which gave
amnesty to three million undocumented immigrants, the number of undocumented immigrants in

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 6/14
mainstream politicians, however, advocate for gentler policies toward today's immigrants while
naively assuming that effective border enforcement can be achieved in the future. Open borders
advocates, by contrast, can deplore the procedura! injustices of immigration enforcement without
inconsistency, for they oppose the goal of immigration enforcement as well as the harsh means by
which it is achieved.

RICHER AND MORE FREE

Immigration restrictionists often argue that citizens of a nation have the democratic right to decide
who enters their country and who does not. Open borders advocates also want a democratic form of
government in which leaders are elected, but they want to limit the powers enjoyed by democratic
governments, such as the right to restrict movement. Letting people choose the jurisdiction in
which they live is at least as good a method as voting when it comes to implementing the principle
of rule by consent of the governed. And even more important than democracy in this regard is
freedom. These usually go together in today's world, but not because democracy inherently favors
freedom. Individua! rights such as free speech are, in a sense, undemocratic, for they mean that no
matter how much the majority of people hate what someone says, they cannot silence him. The
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 7/14
upenmg ooroers woum expano me scope or rreeoom, strengmen respect ror ngnts, ano wmen me
realm of actions that governments, incluciing ciemocratic ones, are not alloweci to take. This
encieavor is an extension of the liberal project that has animateci the West since the Enlightenment.
Anci those who sympathize with abolishing migration restrictions, but fear how popular backlash
against immigration has recently affecteci Western ciemocracy, shoulci ask themselves whether
freeciom can really be secure if its growth is curtaileci; whether respect for rights can be compatible
with the exclusion of the foreign-born; anci whether, in the Uniteci States, immigrants are really a
greater threat to freeciom anci the rule of law than are native-born cievotees of the presicient, Donalci
Trump.

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please contact us.

Europa Edltlon

Your Wednesday Briefing


By PATRICK BOEHLER

Good morning.

Here's what you need to know:

Crowley/The NewYorkTimes

• In bis first address to Congress, President Trump asked lawmakers for help in
__t_ __ !l..l! _ _ L'L- TT-!.&.-..l C't.L-.&.--' !-L--L---.L---- __ _] -L-----L'L--!-- .1.1-- _!l!.a. _ _ _
reouuamg me umtea .:imes ll1mlBt1'UCWre ana strengtoemng me Dlllltary.

Mr. Trump said he was eager to reach across partisan lines and put aside "triviai fights"' in
the intere11t of helping Americans. But he was Rhprt on debtjl11 aJviut hgw to açbjm m..
~.

Earlier in the day, he was said to be oon.sidering a compromise on immigration, but his
speech held to his tough campaign stance.

Here are a yideo and trannçript and our fact check.

• llu.uia cla.shed with the U.S., Britain and France aver the war in S;yrla at the U.N.
Security C.OuncìL

Moscow and China blocked a resolution that would have punished the govemment of
President Bashar al-.Assad for wàng chemical weapoll8 in Syria.

The American ambassador, Nildd R. Haley, accused the Kremlin of putting ":it:s friends in
the Assad regime" before global securi.ty.
• Jeff Serllliom, in his first oflicial speech a.s U.S. attorney general, promised a tsm1her
approach to drng t:raffiç)tjng and illr.pl jmmjgrn.tign. That theme fol'D!B the backbon.e of1
yision of '!'!l!!!aking America sharesl by Ste.phen X. Rannon, the chief White House strategist

And Mr. Trump's education secretary, Betsy DeVos, stwmed many African-Americans
by cliapçtwjrini bj11tpriçally b]ar.Js 001!'&";3 apd uniyemjtjm - fuunded fur Btudents barred
from segregateci white schools - as "pioneers when it oomes to school choice."
• N"ip:ria.'s military ha.s made headway in its war against Boko Haram. the radical
Islamist militants rerrorizing the wontry's northeast.

But witnesses say that in the process, the military ha" a1so resorted to tenor, slaugbtering
civilianB and burning village&.

"We separated the corpst'..'l from the ones who had not yet died," said a sorvivor, who said
she lost Bix relativw in a mass acre."Ali of our bodies were stained wìth blood...

• Frmee is lnsjng tbe rom ofitJ Wtttmjc proyincial tqwns - dense hubs of urbani\)' deep in
the rouutryside where Bal7.ac set bis novels - as commerce moves to sublll'ban shopping
malls.

"We've lost that conviviality that was our signature," a city councilma1:1 in southern France
said.

That change ha.s fueled anxieties about protecting a way oflife, helpiDg the aimpaign of
Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate. And some Parisians are looking
overseas for help by seeking an Cimpnejble) Ob1m11 ramtid11cy.
Business


• •
• •
• •

• Raearcb.Gate, a Bertin-based social network for sclentists,. llllid it bad ajgnaj up 12


milljgn mrnnhmz and raised $52.6 million from inw.rtors, including Goldman Sacli.s and
Bill Gates.

•A court in South Korea jndicted the hwd af&immpg on oomiption charges. a


dramatic development in the rountry's Btruggle to curb the power gffamily-eontroll.ed
conglomeratea, or chaebol, that dominate the eoonomy.

• YouTube salii it planned to start a s;ubscriptipn-based re}eyjsion seMre. wading into the
oomplex web afbroadca.sttelevision.

• Penguin lt.andom. BOUl'le acgujn:d wprld rights to new books by former President
Ba:rack Obama and Michelle Obama, the funner fim lady.

• Here's a snapshot of g!gMI m1rfsru.

IntheNews
• Ital,y's praident commuted part of a prison sentence of a furmer C.I.A. officer detained
in Portugal, ahove, over the kidnapping of a terrorism. suspect in 2003, meaning she will
most likel:y avoid imprisonment. !The New York Times]

• Jean-ctaude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, will PW!!lnt a white
papertoday outliningways tokeep the E.U. together. Critica saythedraft lacks a clear
vision. lPoliticol

• Hungary's prime mini.stcr, Vikl:or Orban, declarecl that "ethnic homogeneity" was
vital fur the cowrtry's eoonomic succt'.\lS. lAgence fl'llDm-pr.:..r.el

• lldar Dadin, the Rvssian opposition activist recently released. from a Sìberian prison,
spoke out about the torture he endured. "The problem. is the sadiBts know how to beat," he
sai.d. fMoscow Timesl

• In France, a police shaipshootcr accidentally fired bis weapon during a speecb. by


President François Hollande, injuring two. fAssocjated Prnwi'

• As Colombia'• FAR.C n:bels beg:jn dismniugtockf, here's OUI recent report about
guenillas tuming cmlia.n. "We've spent 52 years in hammocks," said one commander. "Ifs
time we m~ mto tiny houses." !The New York Times]

• In the U.S., an online debate erupted over a photo of Kellyanne Conway, a presidential
adviser, kneeling on a couch during a meeting in the Ova1 Oflice. !Ihe New York Timesl

Smarter Living
o
o

• Belore your day gets going, read up about the benefits of@ntrolled breything..

• Can great friencbhip be as strong as romanee? This week's Mndmn Loye loolgi at an
int:ergenerationaj bond that feels that wayto the author.

• Recipe of the day: Ifyou're goiDg to roast a chicken, Ja!JQues Pepin's recipe is the way
togo.

Noteworthy
• No more than 30 vaquitas, miniatore snub-nosed porpoises that live in Mexican
waters, are left. Experts propose<l lrr&J»pg sgme in çaptiyity as a !ast resgrt.

• In memoriam: Rmmanuelle Khanh, a French fashion designer wlw chafed at the


rigidity ofhaute couture, died at 79.

• At the Six: Natiom rugbytournament,. underdog Ital,y exploihld a lo9J1hgle in the


g11me's rules. briefly sbmning the front-runner, England. But England pulle<l away and
won, 36-15. Italy will face France next weekend.

• And "Madonna in a. Fur Coat," a love story, has improbahlY Myme a bqt seller in
Iurkey. unìting readers in the pola:ri1.ed country.

BackStory

A piece of mrud is up fur auc:tion in London today•

.But the item in Lot 92 at Bonhams is no ordinary fungus. It wa.s part ofthe batch that
Alexander Fleming used to produce penicillin in 1928. The Scottish scientiBt is credite<l
with the discovery, a happy accident that cbanged the world of medicine and save<l milliom
oflM:s. Penicillin is stìll used to treat bacterial iDfecl:ionB today. It's expected to gofur at
lea.st 4000 pounds (or almost $s,ooo).

The mold itself. a green-yellow splotch, is mounted inside a small glass disc. The back is
insaibe<l in Mr. Fteming's own writing, "The mould that first made Penicillin," with bis
signature.

Such discs have been given as gifts to Prince Philip, Winston Churchill and Marlene
Dietrich.

Many samples of Fleming's medicai breakthrough have sold in the (yes, real) historical
mold market. In 1998, one sample was bought for f'.8,050. A piece that sold in 2015 carne
with a letter from the scientist and a note from his former housekeeper, addressed to future
owners.

This "is a blob of the originai mould of penicillin," she wrote, "not to be confused with
Gorgonzola cheese!!!"

Des Shoe contributed reporting.


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Morning Briefing
Thursday, March 2, 2017 NYlimes.com »

Thank you for supporting Today's Headlines: European Morning. Welcome to the
European edition of The Times's Moming Briefing, your new rundown for the day's
top stories, delivered Monday through Friday. If you have any questions or concems,
please contact us.

Europe Edltlon

Your Thursday Briefing


By PATRICK BOEHLER

Good morning.

Here's what you need to know:

Drago/The N ewYorkTunes

• In their final days in office, Obama administration officials scrambled to ensure that
mrewgence on .KUSS!an eu:om w mterrere m tae Ame:ncan presiaemuu e.iecaon ano
Moscow"s connections with members of the Trump campaign was Preserved

U.S. allie&, including the British and the Dutch, had provided infunnation describing
meetinp in Europe between people close to the R'.remlin and associa~ ofMr. Trump,
former U.S. officials said.

Beyond leavìng a trait for investigalors, the officials also wanted to help F.uropean allies
oombat the threat of Russian intexfereace in upcoming election.s there.

And the U.S. attomey generai. JeffSessions, iB facing questiou over two previously
undisclosed meeting& wìth R.n&sia's ambassador la.st year.

• Reaction to Pre.tident Trump's addreas to C:Ongres.s tended t'O focus 011 it8 sober
style. His seriousness of purpose and calls for unìty w!!l!!lmd- and sur;priBed- many of
the nr_ady 48 mj11ign yieyrers..

Mr. Trump fa.ces not onl;y a committed Democratic opposition but a divided Re,publiran
hlm·

•• •

• Ru.uian aircraft mjiitakenlybombçd Syrjan Arab figbtm who were being trained by
U.S. furres, another unintended clash among the myriad furoe& operating on the battlefield.

U.N. inwstigators released a miort dçt11mng war gimes in Syria, ralling the government's
bombing of a hum11nitarian convoy in September, which kìlled l4 aid workers, •one of the
most egi:egious."

In Iraq, government fuJ:Ce11 lllmely snmmnded lJilmnic State mmtapm in MosuL Our
reporter met a familvflr&ing tbe port:jop ofthe city still controlled by the milfumts.
• In Eastern :Burope, populist leaders are mçking down on nonggremmenta}
m1niz:atjnp1 onçe pmterted by Wghjpgtpn.

Orpnizations funded by George Soros, above, the hberal American billionaire, are facing
particular ire, accused. of working to tlood Burope with Muslim refugees and tnmsform
•Christian" natioll8 into multicultural ste'W8 of left-wing globalism.

•A team ofthree Spanish archited8 won the Pritzker Prize. thcir pmfmjon's hjghm
honor.

It might be a sign that the era of the solo celebrity arclùtwt may be aver. The award cited
"their inten.sely collaborative way of working together, where the creative process,
oommitment to vision and ali re.spo11B1"bilities are shared equall;y."

l • , "' •• '\i:· -r-#. ~ .. .


.. • -; I ~
• ' # • •

. 4 • •
.J > • •
• · • 1 f· I.
• Scientùts may bave found the oldt>.rt sigos of lif'e on Earth. Or nat.

Some researchers say ancient rockB in a remote geological outpost in Canada yjeJded
b@i;teyia fu§!!il' that could be up to 4.2 billion years old, relatively soon after the planefs
birth. Others are dubious - and vocal.

Such battles, an optimìst observed, were "how science progresses."

Business

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• Snap Inc., Snapchat's pareirt company, m11@ its mucb.-hmlded m11rket dehut with a
wluation set at $24 billion, an extraordinary starting point fora trajectoiythat oould rise
like Facebook - or stumble like Twitter.

• Uber's reputation ÌB in tattcrs aft:er a serir.!l of tieandals, inclucling accusation.s of


rampant sexism. If ìt can fix its work culture, it oould be a wtembed fur wpmçn jn trçb
our oofumnist wri.tes.

• Additional costs may make Norwegian Air's $65 tran!l-Af!agtic fares look like less of a
bargain.

• Here•s OW' reriew ofthe first must-try device of 2017: the Nintendo Switcb.

• The Dow clngd ahoye 2LOOO for tbe first time. Here's a mapshot of gloMI m1rkets.

IntheNews

• Voters in Northern Ircland will elect representatives to their legislative Assembly


- -
t'Oday. A political. deadlock oouJd Jud to a twnJxinuy retpm to direct rule from London.
-
fBeffiirit Te}er;raphl

• Britain.'s House ofLorcb voted to amen.d the govemment's draft "Brexìt" law, tieeking
t'O guarantee the rights of E.U. citi7.en.& living in the country, but the more iB unlikelyto
deraìl the government's timetable. !The Qt•wrli11nJ

• Geert Wdders, the Dutcli m-right politician, said he would ~ campaigning a.s bis
party rell behind the goveming liberal party in a poll for the first time .sinre November.
Eleci:ìons are next Wednesday. rpgJjtioo]

• Franee's center-right presidential <:andidate, Françuis Fillon, defiantly vo'WOO to stay in


the rare, even as he announced that he would be charged in a widening embezzlement
in'Vl:Stigation. fllieNçwYorkTimesl

• In Macedonia. the president blocked a ooalition of opposìtion parties from formìng a


govemment over its plans to emure wider use of the Albanian language. r»al!san Infilghtl

•A member ofa commi.uion adv.Uring Pope Franc::is on ways to protect minoni


from sexual abuse by the clergy resigned, citing what she called "cultural rt'Sstanee" from
the Vatican. !The New York Timesl

• F}nland's same sex coupla can now marry an.d adopt c:hildren. !Ikl

Smarter Living

- u""" n .... t ""' t • t .. ~ ...


• Ifyou feel your productivitytlagging at work today, put on wme m11sjc.,

• llec:ipe of the day: Fora diffurent take on dinner, by roasted fi..b with sweet pçp;pers.

Noteworthy

• Mount Etna in Sicìly, Burope's most active volcano, roared to lire in an ernption that
oould be seen for milu.

• Be Dice to doctors and nurses. A Btudy of an Israeli neonatal UDi.t suggests th1t qua]jty of
care mjgbt suffer ifa parent is rude. or evenjust unpl.ea.sant, to the medica! staff.

• Forget fishing or quilting. Older New ZealaDders are fincting purpose in coffip-buildjng
d!lht. One group's motto: "fine aDd affoi:dable underground furniture."'

• Zlabm Ibrahimovic's dominance in Rngland's Premier League mjght be M11ppng the


mx soocer fan!! look at importcd playeni.

• And here•s oar brand·new guide to U>pdgn's Britìsh Mm•çi1m,

BackStory
When the movie "Ring Kong" was fi:rst scmmM 84 years ago todv in New York Citf, it
was widely aDt:icipated fur its technological feats and a challenging nan:ati:ve that had a
"moDStrous ape 50 feet tall" climbing the still-new Empire State Building.

"Ihe film wìll show prehistoric monsters fighting one another and malring weird sounds.•
The 'l'ime& miorted befure the release, ralling it a "'fimtastic film."

It also helped define the career of Bruee Cabot, who playOO Jaclt Drisooll, the hero who
l't'$CUt'.\l Fay Wray from the giant ape.

Mr. Cabofs career didn't start in acting dooL At 14. he scavenged <:attle remaiJIB on the
prairit'.\l of New Mexico furbone meal. Work in construction "gave him a democratic
outlook on life," The Thnes ~ in 1933. ~a ship dookband, he worked bis way to
Europe and meandered through post-World War I France and Spain.

After "Xing Kong," a series of supporling roll'.\! fullowed, often alongside John Wayne.
World War ll military service took him back to Europe, where he worked in jnteTijgence.

That may bave prepared him fur one of his last ro~: Fighting a fictitious tfP1 named James
Bond in "DiamondsAre Forever."

Your Morning Brùifing is published weekday nwrnings and updared online.


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Morning Briefing
Friday, March 3, 2017 NYlimes.com »

Thank you for supporting Today's Headlines: European Morning. Welcome to the
European edition of The Times's Moming Briefing, your new rundown for the day's
top stories, delivered Monday through Friday. If you have any questions or concems,
please contact us.

Europe Edltlon

Your Friday Briefing


By PATRICK BOEHLER

Good morning.

Here's what you need to know:

Mills/The NewYork Tunes

• The Trump administration faced renewed turmoil over new disclosures of contacts
.&.-- _!_li __ L__..] _ • ..!.&.'L C't------T TT!'-1---1- .&.1..- n ____ ! __ --'-----..l-- .&.- .&.'L- TT-!.&.-..l ~.&.-.&.-- ...] __ __! _ _
mp ames .o.ao wito .:iergey J • .r.:wyax, toe .lWBBlllD. amnassaaor lO 'Ul.e umtoo :stares, ourmg
the presidential campaign or before the inauguration.

Attomey Genera! Jeff Sessions, the top U.S. law emorcement officia}, If&JJ"fè bjm!!f:lffrom
anyinyestigation into R:ussian meddling in the 2016 eledion. Here's afimeline ofhis
meetings.

Mr. KiBlyak a1so metwith Mr. Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, Jan:d Knsbner, in
December.

The jgwly 1md oonljul djplomat has told associates that he is likeb' to be replaced. by a hard-
line genera!.

• Wlth. an ~on Rn18:ia, Sweden sought to justìfy the return to manciatozy mi)jtwy
!!mlÌ® - abolished in 2010 - by citing a "deteriorating secu:rity environment."

The neutral countrywill a1so begin to dust off public shelters that bave not been inspected
for two decades.
• The maJ1)r ofCal•i• hae hapnM thç 013anjmd mllrib11tjqp gffugd to mjmW in an
effort to prevent the establishment of new makeshift migrant camps in the Frencb. city.

We visitecl refugee camps in Greece, where tçn,. ofthou!!!!nds of migran!;s are languisbing.
maoy of them. children. Thcir lives there bave taken on an air of perma11ence.

.Above. a birthday party at a Syrian refugee <:amp north of Athens.


• Marine Le Pen. the far-right candidate in France's presideutial elootion, l91!t ber
wrHumephsy jmmnnjty as a Buropean lawmaker amid an inquiry involving graphic
photographs of Islamic State violence.

She is among a group of women wlw are leading what were onc:e fringe parties - pushing
their extremist views to the political mainstream and drawing support from fgma]e vnfem.

• Syrian gowernment fOn:ea 11gain drgyç JsluWc State mmtants out of P11lm,yra, the
ancient city that was among the leading tourist attrac:tiou in prewar Syria.

The I.slamic State had used the city as a propaganda windfall, malring a sport of pilfering
and vandalizing prized antiqu.ities it considered heretical and using the Roman theater for
public beheadinp.
• Egypt's top appeals coart c1'2'ml fpnner PmJjdent HO§DÌ MuMrak of any
l't'$J>Ol!BlDility for the killing of hundreds of people during the 2011 protests that ended bis
30-year rule. sweeping away the final legal hui:dle to bis release from dereirtion.

None of the Mubarak-era figure9 who grew rich and influenti.al during bis time in power are
still in jail.

Business

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• Shares ofSnap Inc., valued at $24 billion in its public offering, jnmped more tbpn 40
permrt in the company's first day of trading. Here's a look at tecb. I.P.Q.s ajnrn 1992 and
where valuations stand now.

• Wall Stteet has been on an upward trajectory since IDection Day. Our rolnmnist loob at
what the Tn1mp e!fect and booming markets meyn for the globa1 eçonamy.

• U.S. lederai offic:ers raided Oil:e:r];!il'ar offim over an inquùy into accusations that the
com~ reduced its American tax. bili by shifting profits to Switzerland.

• Eurozone iu11ation mçbed a four-mr bjgb. Here's a snapshot of gloMI mHiket:s.

IntheNews

• In Ukraine, nationalist acti.vists a:rmed with hunting rifles and clubs are trying to choke
ofI coaJ. supplies that provide income for Russian-backed separatists. !The 'NewYork,TjmP§]

• Aleksei. A. Navalny, a R:ussian anticorruption crusader, aooused Prime Minister Dmìtri


A. Medvedev of amassing a lavish empire of luxury properties, yachts and a v.ineyard in
Italy. !Di.e NewY01kTimçsJ

• European lawma:ken, in a nonbinding vote, called for an end to vis a-free trave! for
U.S. citi1.ens unti! 'visa restrictions on fiveE.U. member states are lifted by Washington.
fBeuteml
• Natiom and philanthropùts pledged close to $200 million for family planning at a
w .on•~1" w ""'wpo;;~c;: • u •.:o. IJUli vu.1W.1W111S 1v1· isiuu_p,11~t11uv~\c;:
""'wt:.t:c;:u~

abortion. [ApnçjirtOO PrewJ

• In Germany, the arrests of two people who are suspected t"O be members of the Nusra
Front, a Syrian terrorist group, are part of an eftbrt t"O weed out radical IslamiBbl. The
domestic intelligence serviee estimates that number at t,6oo, up from 100 three years ago.
!Ihe New YorkTjmP§]

• Did China buy better socoor? Play bq;jns today in the Super IMgue. which outspent the
British Premier Leagu.e fur the first time and is now packed with high-ticlcet stars. [Reutersl

Smarter Living

• Here•s a reminder that a delayed flight is often an fflllf&ially good momegt to be


mjndful.

• Reàpe of the da:f: Por a fi11ing, meatlt'.\JS meal, a cabbtge and potato gratin gets the job
done with style.

Noteworthy
• Arepfu:a ofLondon's Tower Bridge in China, celebrated a& •even more
magnificent" than the origina}, has set offa debate aver whether oopycat buildings ~
art111lly denignrting ChiDfi!!f! culture.

• ScientùbJ ha:re determined the probable cause for the woolly m11mmoth's demise in
Siberia based on a message left in the tooth of a male mammoth. It supportB the idea that a.s
a population dwindles, natwal seledion beoomes less ef!jcient.

•AD Englisb 8heep farmer makes hjR ra@ in an Op-Bd on why demand for cheap food
is killing the American dream for millions of people. •pood is more than a oommodity," he
writes.

•New Orleans may be known for Mardi Gras, but the Alabama town ofMobile dates ili
Carnjwl çrJebmtian to 1703, when ìt was the capitai of the French colony of IDuisiana.

• And bere'• our 36-houn guide to the deligbtful Morocean metlopoliB of Fez, where
new hotels, shops and caful oomplein@t tbe city's anciegt beehjw alJure,

BackStory
Iceland endured a moc:k con.stìtutional crisis 1ast week alter the pre.sident, Gu.dni Thorlacius
Johannesson.jokingly tolda class ofhigb. school students that he would like to han
pineapple pizza toppings.

An uproar on social media ensued. and Mr. Johannesson retracted bis proposa'I. He wrote
in a irtatemçnt that "presidentB should not bave nnlimil:ed power,"' adding that he "would
notwmt to live in sucli a oountry. For pizzas, I reoommend seafuod."

Unlike Mr. Johannesson, Saparmurat Njyawy. the Turkmenistan president who died in
2006, stood out as a head of state who used bis office to impose bis penional preferences on
citizenB.

He renamed Januaiy after bjm""1f..Apri! was renamed alter bis mother.

Mr. Ni,yazov also banned ~ and video games. And he had a gplden rptatjpg statue of
bimself installed in Ashgabat, the capital

His successor, Gurba:nguJy Berdymukbammedov, relocated the statue and ordered hi!! own
lmilt. Last month, he was re-eleded. winning 98 perregt ofthe yqte.

Your Morning Briefing is published weekdJly nwrnings and updared online.

Recul the latest editjon e,ftlte U.S. bril!flng bere and ths late.tt rorMja qndAustmlia bue.
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The Opinion Pages 1 oP-ED co1uMN1sT

Goodbye Spin, Hello Raw Dishonesty


Paul Krugman MARCH 3, 2017

The latest big buzz is about J eff Sessions, the attorney general. It tums out that he
lied during bis confinnation hearings, denying that he had met with Russian
officials during the 2016 campaign. In fact, he met twice with the Russian
ambassador, who is widely reported to also be a key spymaster.

Not incidentally, if this news hadn't come to light, forcing Mr. Sessions to
recuse himseH, he would bave supervised the investigation into Russian election
meddling, possibly in collusion with the Trump campaign.

But let's not focus too much on Mr. Sessions. After all, he is joined in the
cabinet by Scott Pruitt, the Environmental Protection Agency administrator, who
lied to Congress about his use of a private email account; Tom Price, the secretary
of health and human services, who lied about a sweetheart deal to purchase stock
in a biotechnology company at a discount; and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury
secretary, who falsely told Congress that bis financial finn didn't engage in "robo-
signing" of foreclosure documents, seizing homes without proper consideration.

And they would have served with Michael Flynn as national security adviser,
but for the fact that Mr. Flynn was forced out after the press discovered that, like
Mr. Sessions, he had lied about contacts with the Russian ambassador.

At this point it's easier to list the Trump officials who haven't been caught lying
under oath than those who bave. This is not an accident.
Critics of our politica} culture used to complain, with justification, about
politicians' addiction to spin - their inveterate habit of downplaying awkward
facts and presenting their actions in a much better light than they deserved. But
all indications are that the age of spin is over. lt has been replaced by an era of
raw, shameless dishonesty.

In part, of course, the pervasiveness of li es reflects the character of the man


at the top: No president, or for that matter major U.S. politica} figure of any kind,
has ever lied as freely and frequently as Donald Trump. But this isn't just a
Trump story. His ability to get away with it, at least so far, requires the support of
many enablers: almost all ofhis party's elected officials, a large bloc ofvoters and,
all too often, much of the news media.

lt's important not to indulge in an easy cynicism, to say that politicians bave
always lied and always will. What we're getting from Mr. Trump is simply on a
different plane from anything we've seen before.

For one thing, politicians used to limit their outright lies to matters not easily
checked - hidden affairs, under the table deals, and so on. But now we bave the
man who ran the Miss Universe competition in Moscow three years ago, and who
declared just last year that "I know Russia well," then last month said, "I haven't
called Russia in 10 years."

On matters of policy, politicians used to limit their misrepresentations of


facts and impacts to relatively hard-to-verify assertions. When George W. Bush
insisted that bis tax cuts mainly went to the middle class, this wasn't true, but it
took some number-crunching to show that. Mr. Trump, however, makes claims
like bis assertion that the murder rate - which ticked up in 2015 but is still barely
halfwhat it was in 1990 - is at a 45-year high. Furthermore, hejust keeps
repeating such claims after they've been debunked.

And the question is, who's going to stop him?

The moral vacuity of Republicans in Congress, and the unlikelihood that


they'll act as any check on the president, becomes clearer with each passing day.
Even the real possibility that we're facing subversion by agents of a foreign power,
and that top officials are part of the story, doesn't seem to faze them as long as
they can get tax cuts for the rich and benefit cuts for the poor.
Meanwhile, Republican primary election voters, who are the real arbiters
when polarized and/ or gerrymandered districts make the generai election
irrelevant for many politicians, live in a Fox News bubble into which awkward
truths never penetrate.

And what about the Fourth Estate? Will it let us down, too?

To be fair, the first weeks of the Trump administration have in important


ways been glory days for journalism; one must honor the professionalism and
courage of the reporters who have been ferreting out the secrets this
authoritarian-minded clique is so determined to keep.

But then you watch something like the way much of the news media
responded to Mr. Trump's congressional address, and you feel despair. lt was a
speech filled with falsehoods and vile policy proposals, but read calmly off the
teleprompter - and suddenly everyone was declaring the liar in chief
"presidential."

The point is that ifthat's all it takes to exonerate the most dishonest man
ever to hold high office in America, we're doomed. Let's hope it doesn't happen
agam.

Read my blog, The Conscience of a Liberal, and follow me on Twitter,


@PaulKrugman.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter
(@NYI'opinion), and sign upfor the Opinion Today newsletter.
A version of this op-ed appears in print on March 3, 2017, on Page A27 of the New York edition with
the headline: Goodbye Spin, Hello Raw Dishonesty.

© 2017 The New York Times Company


« Retrouver
notre esprit
de conquête
pour bâtir
une France
nouvelle » P.3

PROGRAMME
É L E C T I O N P RÉ S I DE N T I E L L E  —  23 AV RI L ET 7 M A I 2 0 1 7
M O N C O N T R AT AV E C L A N AT I O N

« RETROUVER NOTRE ESPRIT


DE CONQUÊTE POUR BÂTIR
UNE FRANCE NOUVELLE »
J’ai décidé de me présenter à l’élection prési- obsolètes. Et en même temps une France
dentielle car je veux redonner à chaque Fran- qui répare les injustices de départ et protège
çaise et chaque Français confiance en eux, chaque citoyen afin de le mettre en capacité
confiance en la France et dans notre capacité de réussir sa vie.
collective à relever nos défis. Ce faisant, nous
Pour renouer avec l’esprit de conquête fran-
redonnerons à l’Europe et au reste du monde
çais, je veux passer avec vous un contrat de
confiance en notre pays.
droits, de devoirs, et de responsabilités.
Depuis plus de trente ans, nous ne parve-
Emmanuel Macron Si vous me faites confiance, je n’entends pas,
nons pas à régler le problème du chômage de
en Guadeloupe en tant que président, intervenir sur tout et
masse ni celui de l’intégration.
en décembre 2016 partout. Je sais aussi qu’il nous est impossible
Des transformations radicales nouvelles de tout prévoir et que des circonstances ex-
bouleversent nos vies et nos certitudes. La ceptionnelles pourront nous conduire à adap-
SOMMAIRE révolution numérique change nos manières
de produire, de consommer et de vivre en-
ter nos priorités.
On trouvera dans les pages qui suivent le
semble.
contenu de notre projet, celui qui sera mis
Le changement climatique nous oblige à re- en œuvre par le futur gouvernement. Mais
Bien vivre de son travail Une Europe protectrice penser notre organisation et nos modes de je veux auprès de vous prendre des engage-
et inventer de nouvelles et à la hauteur vie. Le nouvel ordre mondial nous impose un ments clairs sur les chantiers essentiels pour
protections 6 de nos espérances 20 terrorisme djihadiste qui a frappé notre pays l’avenir de notre pays. Ce sont ces mêmes en-
ces dernières années, tandis que des puis- gagements que je demanderai au gouverne-
Libérer le travail Faire plus pour ceux sances régionales autoritaires émergent et ment comme à l’ensemble des parlementaires
et l’esprit d’entreprise 8 qui ont moins 22 que notre allié américain semble réviser les qui constitueront la majorité présidentielle.
bases de sa diplomatie.
Le premier chantier sera celui de
Inventer un nouveau modèle Rendre la vie des Français Mais le repli sur nous-mêmes, le refus de voir l’éducation et de la culture. C’est la
de croissance 10 plus facile 24 le monde tel qu’il est ou la volonté de re- condition de notre cohésion nationale. C’est
dresser la France malgré elle ne sont pas des pourquoi je veux remettre la transmission
Les mêmes règles pour tous 12 Une démocratie rénovée 26 solutions. Ils ignorent ses ressorts profonds des savoirs fondamentaux, de notre culture
et le sens de notre destin. Le projet que je et de nos valeurs au cœur du projet de notre
Un État qui protège 14 Les territoires qui font vous propose, c’est de bâtir avec vous une école et de nos universités.
notre France 28 France nouvelle, qui innove, recherche, crée
Les mêmes chances Le deuxième chantier sera celui de
et vit, une France de prospérité retrouvée
pour tous nos enfants 16 Sérieux et responsabilité 30 la société du travail. Dès le début du
et de progrès pour chacun. Qui redeviendra
Emmanuel Macron quinquennat, je demanderai au gouverne-
le fer de lance d’un projet européen qui lui
Fiers d’être Français : en Guadeloupe ment de simplifier le droit, de réformer l’as-
ressemble. Une France qui libère, pour ne
surance chômage pour en faire un droit
exigence et bienveillance 18 le 16 décembre 2016 plus être bloquée par des règles devenues

3
universel avec des exigences nouvelles pour Le cinquième chantier sera celui Je veux que nous retrouvions ensemble la
chacun. du renouveau démocratique. Le fierté d’être français. Car la France est une
Cela s’accompagnera d’un plan inédit pour
la formation et la qualification de nos conci-
« LA FRANCE EST UNE soupçon qui pèse aujourd’hui sur nombre
de représentants, le manque d’efficacité et
chance. Et chacun doit pouvoir y tenir ses
promesses.
toyens les plus fragiles. Je veux par là créer
des emplois, protéger efficacement chacun et
CHANCE. ET CHACUN l’insuffisante responsabilité de nos dirigeants
menacent notre démocratie. C’est pourquoi
Je serai le garant du bon fonctionnement de
nos institutions. Je définirai les responsabili-
améliorer le pouvoir d’achat des travailleurs.
Le troisième chantier sera celui de
DOIT POUVOIR Y TENIR je veux moraliser et responsabiliser la vie pu-
blique, et renouveler la représentation natio-
tés du gouvernement en particulier en ma-
tière de modernisation de l’action publique et
SES PROMESSES. »
nale.
de sérieux budgétaire. Je veillerai aussi à ce
la modernisation de notre écono-
Enfin, sixième et dernier chantier, que l’énergie citoyenne, l’expérimentation,
mie, d’une stratégie d’investissements ambi-
Le quatrième chantier que je vous je m’engage au plan international à l’innovation, les initiatives émanant du ter-
tieuse pour la France hexagonale et des ou-
propose consiste à renforcer la sé- défendre les intérêts de notre pays. En relan- rain participent à la modernisation de notre
tremers. Je veux accélérer l’émergence d’un
curité de la Nation. Notre sécurité à çant une Europe ambitieuse, qui investit et pays. Une grande cause nationale sera mise
nouveau modèle de croissance réconciliant
l’international s’inscrira dans une stratégie de qui protège, et dont la vitalité démocratique au cœur de cet engagement : l’égalité entre les
transition écologique, industrie du futur et
maintien de la paix et de lutte contre le ter- et le goût pour l’avenir seront retrouvés. Et femmes et les hommes.
agriculture de demain. Je veux recréer une
rorisme islamiste. La sécurité intérieure pas- en assurant une nouvelle politique en Afrique
mobilité économique et sociale par le numé- Je rendrai compte chaque année devant le
sera par un investissement conséquent dans où la paix et l’esprit d’entreprise construi-
rique, la recherche et l’innovation, le travail et Parlement de l’avancée de ce contrat avec
nos forces de l’ordre, leur réorganisation, ront le siècle qui commence.
l’entrepreneuriat. La société que je veux sera vous. Il permettra de retrouver l’esprit de
à la fois libérée des carcans et des blocages, mais aussi dans la vigilance que toute notre Les six chantiers de ce contrat permettront conquête dont nous avons besoin.
et protectrice des plus faibles (c’est pour cela Nation doit retrouver. Assurer la sécurité, de construire une société de mobilité plutôt
que la transformation de notre système de faire respecter sans concession notre laïcité, que de statuts, une Nation forte et conqué-
santé et de notre politique du logement y restaurer partout l’autorité de l’État et dans rante.
aura aussi une place centrale). l’État, garantir l’indépendance de l’autorité
judiciaire sont les conditions premières de la
liberté de chacun.

COMMENT CE PROGRAMME A-T-IL ÉTÉ CONSTRUIT ?


Depuis le premier jour, la raison d’être d’En de 500 experts qui ont donné de leur temps et
Marche est de rassembler toutes les bonnes de leur expérience.
volontés autour d’une ambition positive pour
Ce programme a un seul point de départ :
notre pays. Peu importe qu’elles viennent de la
la réalité. Tout ce que nous proposons pro-
gauche, de la droite, du centre, de l’écologie ou
cède de la Grande Marche, cette immense
d’ailleurs : seule compte notre volonté parta-
opération de porte-à-porte que nous avons
gée de progrès au service de l’intérêt général.
menée l’été dernier et durant laquelle nous
Nous sommes aujourd’hui plus de 200 000
avons ausculté la France à travers les yeux de
adhérents.
100 000 de nos concitoyens.
Ce programme a été construit avec plus de
Il a un objectif principal : qu’à la fin du pro-
30 000 Françaises et Français de tous milieux
chain quinquennat, chacun maîtrise davan-
sociaux, de tous âges, dans tous les territoires
tage son destin et que nous vivions tous mieux
de France, au cours de 3000 ateliers de nos
ensemble.
comités locaux. Ils ont enrichi le travail de plus

4 EM M A N U EL M A C R O N P R ÉSI D EN T. M O N C O N T R AT AV E C L E S FR AN ÇAIS 5
Bien vivre Nous améliorerons le pouvoir d’achat de tous
les travailleurs.

de son travail Sans que cela ne revienne plus cher aux employeurs, nous réduirons les cotisations
payées par les salariés, par les indépendants et par les fonctionnaires : près de 500 euros

et inventer
supplémentaires nets par an pour un salaire de 2200 euros nets par mois !

Nous augmenterons le pouvoir d’achat des ouvriers,

de nouvelles
des employés et des salariés les moins bien payés.
Tous les smicards qui bénéficient de la prime d’activité toucheront par exemple l’équivalent
d’un 13e mois de salaire, soit 100€ nets de plus chaque mois.

protections Nous rétablirons les exonérations de cotisations


sociales sur les heures supplémentaires.
Nous ouvrirons les droits à l’assurance-chômage
aux salariés qui démissionnent.
Ce droit ne sera utilisable qu’une fois tous les cinq ans. En contrepartie, l’insuffisance
des efforts de recherche d’emploi ou le refus d’offres raisonnables
Nous ne sommes pas condamnés à choisir entraîneront la suspension des allocations.
entre le chômage de masse et la précarisation
Nous engagerons un effort national de formation
du travail. sans précédent.
Nous ne sommes pas naïfs. Nous savons bien Nous formerons 1 million de jeunes et 1 million de demandeurs d’emploi peu ou pas
qualifiés et aujourd’hui sans perspective.
que, dans la vie, on n’a rien sans rien et que tout
progrès, personnel ou collectif, dépend de cet Nous serons aux côtés des agriculteurs pour qu’ils
effort qu’on appelle le travail. Nous savons que vivent de leur travail, plutôt que des aides publiques.
le travail, lorsqu’il est pratiqué dans de bonnes 5 milliards d’euros de notre Plan d’investissement seront consacrés à la modernisation de
leurs exploitations. Et nous les aiderons à être payés au prix juste en soutenant
conditions et correctement payé, est le moteur les organisations de producteurs dans leurs négociations avec les industriels. Nous nous
de la progression sociale. battrons pour faire évoluer dans ce sens le droit européen de la concurrence.
Nous savons aussi que le travail a toujours Nous ferons un effort massif pour l’apprentissage.
changé (les porteurs d’eau ou les conducteurs Nous développerons les périodes de pré-apprentissage et les filières en alternance dans
de calèche ont été remplacés par d’autres tous les lycées professionnels. Des licences professionnelles seront préparées sur trois ans
et en alternance. Nous ferons converger les contrats existants et impliquerons pleinement
métiers), que de nouveaux besoins naissent les branches professionnelles dans la définition des programmes et l’organisation
du vieillissement de la population, de la transition des formations.
écologique, de la transition numérique, et que
de nouveaux métiers vont surgir. Dans ce monde
nouveau, chacun doit trouver sa place. Et la
France a toute la sienne, si elle sait tout à la fois
libérer les initiatives et protéger les personnes.
6 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 7
Nous simplifierons la vie des entrepreneurs.
Nous réduirons leurs charges et supprimerons le Régime Social des
Indépendants (RSI) qui ne fonctionne pas. Nous doublerons les plafonds pour pouvoir
bénéficier du régime fiscal de la microentreprise. Nous mettrons fin à toute forme
de concurrence déloyale en permettant chaque année à tous les artisans et commerçants
d’opter ou non, selon leurs besoins, pour le régime fiscal de la microentreprise.

Nous réduirons le coût du travail.


Nous aiderons les entreprises à embaucher en baissant les cotisations sociales employeurs
de 6 points en remplacement du CICE, et jusqu’à 10 points au niveau du SMIC :
les employeurs économiseront près de 1800 euros par an et par salarié au SMIC,
2200 euros par an pour un salarié payé 3000 euros bruts par mois.

Libérer
Nous combattrons la précarité en responsabilisant
les employeurs.

le travail
Nous créerons un bonus-malus sur l’assurance-chômage. Les employeurs qui
entretiennent la précarité en recourant exagérément aux contrats courts paieront

et l’esprit
plus de charges, ceux qui créent des emplois stables en paieront moins.

Nous redéfinirons le dialogue social.

d’entreprise
Les principes fondamentaux (durée légale du temps de travail, égalité professionnelle,
salaire minimum...) resteront dans la loi. Mais, par exemple, les horaires effectifs
ou l’organisation du travail seront négociés au plus près du terrain. Ils seront définis
par accord majoritaire ou par référendum d’entreprise sur la base d’un accord.
Le problème qui est aujourd’hui au cœur
des préoccupations des Français, c’est le chômage Nous permettrons à tous les travailleurs d’avoir
de masse que nous connaissons depuis tant d’années. droit à l’assurance-chômage.
Pour le surmonter, il faut changer d’approche. Les artisans, les commerçants indépendants, les entrepreneurs, les professions libérales,
Notre pays n’aime pas toujours la réussite : ceux et les agriculteurs disposeront, comme les salariés, de cette protection.
qui réussissent suscitent une forme de jalousie ou Nous créerons sur Internet un nouveau service
de suspicion. Mais notre pays refuse aussi l’échec : d’explication de la réglementation pour les entreprises.
que ce soit à l’école ou dans la vie professionnelle, Un site Internet unique donnera à chaque TPE ou PME les obligations légales
ceux qui échouent sont souvent montrés du doigt et conventionnelles qu’elle doit respecter en fonction de sa situation. Les réponses
et empêchés de tenter à nouveau leur chance. fournies en ligne seront valables face à l’administration.
Pourtant, nous avons besoin que nos concitoyens
se lancent, tentent, prennent des initiatives, quitte
à les aider à rebondir s’ils échouent. Et nous avons
besoin que certains de nos concitoyens réussissent,
créent de l’activité et des emplois, entraînant
les autres avec eux.
C’est pourquoi nous voulons libérer le travail
et l’esprit d’entreprise !
8 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 9
Inventer Nous lancerons un grand Plan d’investissement
de 50 milliards d’euros.

un nouveau modèle
Ce plan sur 5 ans sera mis au service des qualifications de tous les citoyens, de la transition
écologique, de la révolution numérique, de la modernisation des services publics et de la
rénovation urbaine.

de croissance Nous soutiendrons l’investissement privé.


Nous baisserons l’impôt sur les sociétés de 33,3% à 25% pour rejoindre la moyenne
européenne. Nous transformerons le CICE en allègements de charges pérennes,
et l’ISF en « Impôt sur la Fortune Immobilière » sans accroître la fiscalité actuelle
sur l’immobilier et les droits de succession, et sans taxer ce qui finance les entreprises
et l’emploi. Nous créerons un prélèvement unique sur les revenus du capital, de l’ordre
de 30%.

Nous créerons un Fonds pour l’industrie


et l’innovation.
Doté de 10 milliards d’euros issus des actions d’entreprises possédées de manière
minoritaire par l’État, il servira à financer l’industrie du futur.

Nous placerons la France en tête du combat contre


les perturbateurs endocriniens et les pesticides.
Ils sont l’une des principales causes de l’augmentation des cancers des enfants depuis
20 ans.

Nous rénoverons 1 million de logements mal isolés


Changer le travail et l’entreprise climatique est la menace la plus d’ici 2022 , et en priorité ceux des propriétaires les plus modestes.
ne suffit pas. L’essentiel est pressante. C’est aussi une question
de changer notre rapport à l’écologie qui est posée à chacun d’entre nous. Nous ferons de la France le leader mondial
et à l’environnement. Des progrès C’est une question sur notre modèle de la recherche sur la transition environnementale.
ont déjà été faits, notamment de développement et de production Les spécialistes étrangers bénéficieront de formalités d’accueil accélérées.
en agriculture. qui nous est posée à tous.
Et qui peut créer des emplois ! D’ici 2022, 50% des produits proposés par les cantines
Mais regardons les choses en face : scolaires et les restaurants d’entreprise devront
les dégâts que nous faisons collective- Surtout, c’est une question être bio, écologiques ou issus de circuits courts.
ment au climat et à la biodiversité d’approche et de volonté : nous avons
sont pour beaucoup irréversibles. toutes les ressources pour changer Nous diviserons par deux le nombre de jours
Les conséquences sur notre santé ce qui doit l’être, et ne plus continuer de pollution atmosphérique.
sont connues : des dizaines de milliers comme avant, pour surmonter Nous remplacerons les vieux véhicules polluants en créant une prime de 1000 euros
de morts par an rien qu’en France, le poids des lobbies. pour acheter un véhicule neuf ou d’occasion moins polluant.
des cancers de plus en plus nom- Alors nous allons faire autrement. Nous créerons une banque de données numériques.
breux et de plus en plus précoces… Car nous croyons que nous pouvons Les administrations chargées d’autoriser des activités (l’ouverture d’un hôtel, ou l’obten-
Ce n’est pas qu’une question redevenir maîtres de notre destin ! tion d’une licence de chauffeur privé, …) devront mettre à disposition leurs données.
Face aux géants étrangers, des nouvelles start-ups pourront ainsi s’adresser par exemple
d’énergie, même si le réchauffement à tous les hôteliers pour leur offrir de nouveaux services.
10 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 11
Les mêmes Nous mettrons fin aux injustices de notre système
de retraites.

règles
Un système universel avec des règles communes de calcul des pensions sera progressive-
ment mis en place. Le fait de changer d’activité ou de secteur sera sans effet sur les droits
à la retraite. Avec un principe d’égalité : pour chaque euro cotisé, le même droit à pension
pour tous !

pour tous
Nous ne toucherons pas à l’âge de départ
à la retraite, ni au niveau des pensions.
Nous publierons les noms des entreprises qui ne
respectent pas l’égalité salariale entre les femmes
et les hommes.
Nous testerons au hasard, et massivement, les entreprises pour vérifier qu’elles respectent
bien la loi en la matière.

Nous alourdirons les sanctions contre la fraude fiscale.


La lutte contre la fraude aux prestations sociales
sera amplifiée.
Une fraude grave entraînera désormais, en plus du remboursement, la suspension
de la prestation.

Nous imposerons les grands groupes de l’Internet


En France, la République est née de l’abolition des privilèges. Et pourtant, sur leur chiffre d’affaires réalisé sur notre sol.
ils sont encore nombreux ! Pour cela, la lutte contre l’optimisation fiscale sera une priorité de notre action
européenne.
Notre pays se veut la patrie de l’égalité. Mais le favoritisme fausse souvent
les choses. Nous ferons la transparence sur l’attribution
des logements sociaux.
Les privilèges bloquent notre société. La reconnaissance n’est pas toujours
Au lieu de procédures parfois opaques, nous mettrons en place un système de points,
au rendez-vous pour ceux qui font des efforts. fondé sur des critères objectifs (taille de la famille, niveau des ressources, lieu
Cela doit changer. Nous voulons une société où tous ont les mêmes droits, de recherche). Il permettra à chacun de connaître ses chances d’obtention d’un logement
et le délai d’attente prévisible.
tous ont les mêmes devoirs et tous sont soumis aux mêmes règles.
Nous voulons en finir avec les passe-droits, les arrangements, la fraude, Nous nous battrons contre les abus liés au travail
la corruption. détaché.
Et nous ? En Marche ! Nous devrons limiter à un an la durée autorisée de séjour d’un travailleur détaché
dans notre pays et redéfinir au niveau européen les règles du détachement pour mettre
Ce changement, En Marche n’attend pas une nouvelle loi pour fin à toutes les formes de concurrence sociale déloyale.
l’incarner dans le champ politique. Aucun de nos candidats
à des élections – locales, nationales et européennes – n’aura de
casier judiciaire. Nos futurs élus auront l’interdiction absolue
d’embaucher des membres de leur famille dans leur équipe.
12 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 13
Un État Nous recruterons 10 000 policiers et gendarmes
supplémentaires.

qui
Ils renforceront notamment notre dispositif de renseignement contre le terrorisme.

Nous créerons une police de sécurité quotidienne.


Au plus près des Français, elle développera une connaissance approfondie des lieux

protège
et des habitants qu’elle sera chargée de protéger et d’entendre.

Nous donnerons aux policiers et aux gendarmes


un nouveau pouvoir : sous le contrôle du juge, ils pourront interdire
à une personne délinquante de fréquenter le quartier où elle a commis ses délits.

Nous ne tolèrerons plus les incivilités.


Le harcèlement des femmes, les insultes, la dégradation du mobilier urbain,
les crachats… Ces incivilités seront punies d’amendes immédiates et dissuasives.

Vivre dans la peur, c’est vivre sans Toute peine prononcée sera exécutée.
être libre. Nous construirons 15 000 nouvelles places de prison.
La peur, c’est désormais celle que nous
Nous confirmerons la cyberdéfense
pouvons éprouver au moment de nous et la cybersécurité comme priorités de notre sécurité nationale.
rendre dans une gare, à la terrasse d’un
café, à un rassemblement qui pourrait Nous augmenterons les moyens de nos armées.
être une cible pour des terroristes. Nous mobiliserons 2% du PIB qui serviront à renouveler les avions ravitailleurs,
à moderniser les blindés de l’armée de terre, ainsi que la flotte de surface de notre marine
La peur, c’est aussi une forme d’angoisse nationale.
quotidienne : la crainte de laisser son Nous créerons un état-major permanent des
logement inoccupé pendant qu’on part opérations de sécurité intérieure, de renseignement
au travail ou en vacances, de croiser et de lutte contre le terrorisme.
le mauvais regard ou de s’asseoir Directement rattaché au président de la République, il associera les services et états-
majors des ministères de l’Intérieur et de la Défense, avec la participation des ministères
à la mauvaise place dans les transports. des transports, de la santé et de l’industrie.
Surtout quand on est une femme.
Nous agirons avec nos partenaires européens pour
La puissance de l’État doit être mise créer une force de 5000 garde-frontières européens.
au service de la protection de tous Ils seront chargés de surveiller et protéger les frontières extérieures de l’Union
les Français, partout sur le territoire. européenne.
Et pour cela, ce sera tolérance zéro
lorsqu’il s’agit de sécurité.
Car la sécurité est la première
de nos libertés.
14 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 15
Les mêmes Nous donnerons la priorité à l’école primaire

chances
pour que tous les élèves sachent lire, écrire et compter en arrivant en 6e.

Nous interdirons l’usage des téléphones portables

pour tous
dans l’enceinte des écoles primaires et des collèges.
Nous donnerons plus d’autonomie aux équipes

nos enfants éducatives. Elles seront suivies et évaluées. La formation des enseignants sera
adaptée à ce nouveau cadre.

Nous limiterons à 12 élèves par enseignant la taille


des 12 000 classes de CP et de CE1 en zone prioritaire.
Ces enseignants recevront une prime annuelle de 3000 euros nets. Et ils seront plus
expérimentés : d’ici 2022, ceux affectés en zones prioritaires auront au moins 3 ans
d’ancienneté.

Nous rendrons possible le rétablissement de parcours


bi-langues au collège, de parcours européens et d’un véritable enseignement
du grec et du latin.

Nous proposerons à tous un accompagnement


La France a été faite par tous Ce n’est pas qu’une question après la classe.
ceux qui, génération après de connaissances : c’est une Au collège, nous rétablirons les études dirigées après la classe grâce à des bénévoles
(étudiants et retraités).
génération, ont porté notre question de justice. Car la mis-
pays à chaque fois un peu plus sion de notre République, c’est Nous moderniserons le baccalauréat.
loin. de remettre tous ses membres Il y aura désormais 4 matières obligatoires à l’examen final. Les autres seront validées
sur la même ligne de départ par un contrôle continu.
L ’ éducation a été le moteur de
cette progression, et les ensei- à chaque étape importante Nous renforcerons l’autonomie des universités.
gnants en ont été les artisans. de leur vie. Bien sûr, il y en Elles pourront recruter leurs enseignants et définir leurs formations. Nous ouvrirons
C’est grâce à eux que la France a toujours qui courront vite 80 000 places dans les filières professionnalisantes.

fait partie des premières et d’autres qui trébucheront. Nous demanderons à chaque lycée professionnel
puissances du monde, alors Ou ne pourront tout et université de publier ses résultats (débouchés, salaires, etc.)
qu’elle représente moins de 1% simplement pas se lancer sur les 3 dernières années.

de la population mondiale. dans la course. Ou choisiront Nous construirons 80 000 logements pour les jeunes.
une trajectoire différente.
Depuis que nos performances Mais si l’on connaît à l’avance Nous ouvrirons les bibliothèques en soirée
scolaires diminuent, notre pays l’ordre d’arrivée, alors et le week-end.
éprouve des difficultés : ce n’est à quoi bon essayer de courir ? Nous créerons un « Pass Culture ». Il permettra à chaque
pas un hasard. Notre cohésion Français de 18 ans d’effectuer 500 euros de dépenses culturelles (cinéma, théâtre, livres...).
nationale en dépend. Nous ne retirerons pas un euro au budget du ministère de la Culture.

16 R ET R O U VEZ TOU TE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S UR E N-MAR C HE .FR 17


P R É S E RV E R L E C A D R E D E L A L A Ï C I T É

Nous appliquerons strictement le principe de laïcité.


Nous organiserons pour les ministres du culte une formation universitaire à la laïcité, aux
valeurs de la République et à la langue française. Nous développerons la connaissance des
différentes religions à l’école en prévoyant un enseignement spécifique sur le fait religieux.

Nous n’étendrons pas l’interdiction du voile


à l’université.
Nous démantèlerons les associations qui, sous couvert
de religion, s’attaquent à la République. Nous fermerons

Fiers d’être définitivement les lieux de culte dans lesquels certaines prêchent l’apologie du terrorisme.

Français : R E F O N D E R L E L I E N AV E C L A N AT I O N

exigence
Nous ferons de la maîtrise de la langue française
le principal critère de l’obtention de la nationalité
française.

et bienveillance Nous renforcerons l’apprentissage de notre langue pour les candidats à la naturalisation.
Quelle meilleure preuve de la volonté de quelqu’un de s’intégrer et de devenir français ?

Nous examinerons les demandes d’asile en moins


Nous avons laissé se fragiliser ce qui fait de nous une Nation, de 6 mois, recours compris.
comme si nous pouvions accepter que les fractures qui divisent C’est nécessaire pour accueillir dignement les réfugiés qui ont droit à la protection
de la France. Les autres seront reconduits sans délai vers leur pays afin qu’ils ne deviennent
notre pays s’élargissent sans cesse, et notamment pas des immigrés clandestins.
les discriminations.
Nous avons tous en partage notre langue, notre premier trésor A C C É L É R E R L’ I N T É G R AT I O N
commun, à la fois notre socle et notre phare : ce qui nous a fait
et ce qui nous distingue, nourri aussi par la vitalité de nombreuses Nous créerons des emplois francs pour encourager
et belles langues régionales. l’embauche des habitants des 200 quartiers prioritaires
de la politique de la ville.
Il faut aller plus loin. Renouer avec le patriotisme sans renoncer Quel que soit le lieu où elle se situe, une entreprise qui recrutera en CDI un habitant
à nos histoires multiples et à notre projet européen. Car redonner de l’un de ces quartiers bénéficiera d’une prime de 15 000 euros sur 3 ans : c’est comme
si elle ne payait plus de charges !
à la France son éclat, c’est redonner confiance aux Français.
D’où qu’ils viennent. Où qu’ils habitent. Quels qu’ils soient. Nous ferons de la lutte contre la discrimination
Et leur faire confiance, c’est leur redonner le pouvoir de faire, une priorité nationale.
d’agir, de réaliser. Nous développerons des opérations de contrôle aléatoires et imprévues à grande échelle,
en matière d’accès à l’emploi ou au logement. Les partenaires sociaux seront
Nous voulons être une Nation exigeante et bienveillante. également mobilisés.

18 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 19


Une Europe Nous construirons une Europe qui développe
nos emplois et notre économie.

protectrice
Pour pouvoir investir beaucoup plus qu’aujourd’hui, nous voulons un budget de la zone
euro voté par un Parlement de la zone euro et exécuté par un ministre de l’Économie

et à la hauteur
et des Finances de la zone euro.

Nous lutterons contre les arrangements fiscaux


entre États et entreprises multinationales.
de nos Ils faussent la concurrence en Europe, comme celui entre Apple et l’Irlande
qui a été sanctionné. La France se montrera exemplaire en ce domaine.

espérances Nous réserverons l’accès aux marchés publics


européens aux entreprises qui localisent au moins la moitié
de leur production en Europe dans le cadre d’un Buy European Act.

Nous généraliserons Erasmus et l’étendrons


aux apprentis. 200 000 étudiants et apprentis français partiront chaque
année dans un pays de l’Union européenne.

Que de lâcheté et d’hypocrisie, quand on entend parler Nous construirons une Europe qui nous protège.
d’Europe ! Nous proposerons avec l’Allemagne une Europe de la défense associant les pays volon-
taires, en créant un Fonds européen de défense qui financera des équipements militaires
Certains l’accusent de tous les maux, oubliant qu’ils ont communs (comme les drones européens) et un Quartier Général européen permanent.
eux-mêmes négocié et signé les traités et tous les textes
qui en découlent. D’autres prétendent rendre la France Nous construirons une Europe qui protège
plus libre en sortant de l’Europe. Comme si nous avions nos industries stratégiques. Nous voulons un mécanisme de contrôle
plus de chances de peser seuls face à la Chine, à la Russie, des investissements étrangers en Europe afin de préserver nos secteurs stratégiques.
aux États-Unis (mais aussi face à Google, Apple, Facebook
et tous les géants du numérique) plutôt que rassemblés Dans la discussion du Brexit, nous défendrons
avec 500 millions d’Européens… l’intégrité du marché unique européen. Toutes les entreprises
qui y accèdent doivent être soumises aux mêmes disciplines.
Tous affaiblissent l’image de la France auprès de nos
partenaires en prétendant vouloir « renverser la table ». Nous créerons un marché unique du numérique
Un grand pays s’honore de tenir sa parole. en Europe. Un fonds de capital-risque permettra de financer le développement
Ce n’est pas la table qu’il faut renverser, c’est le cours des start-ups européennes.
de l’Europe.
Nous créerons un marché unique de l’énergie
Nous devons faire chez nous ce que tous nos partenaires en Europe. Nous fixerons un prix plancher du carbone dans les pays de l’Union.
ont fait chez eux : remettre notre économie en mouve-
ment et, dans l’intérêt de nos enfants, mieux gérer Nous donnerons la parole au peuple.
nos finances publiques. Mais l’Europe aussi doit changer : Nous proposerons des conventions citoyennes dans toute l’Europe dès la fin de l’année
elle ne doit pas avoir pour mission de gérer une bureaucra- 2017 pour redonner un sens au projet européen. Ces conventions aboutiront à un projet
tie, mais de protéger notre présent et de préparer qui sera ensuite adopté par tous les pays qui le souhaitent. Aucun État membre n’aura
notre avenir. Elle doit donc nous protéger dès aujourd’hui, le pouvoir de bloquer cette nouvelle étape.
et investir pour demain !

20 R ET R O U VEZ TOU TE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S UR E N-MAR C HE .FR 21


Faire plus
PLUS POUR NOS AÎNÉS
ET LES PERSONNES MODESTES
Nous augmenterons le minimum vieillesse
de 100 euros par mois. 

pour ceux Nous créerons un versement social unique.


Toutes les allocations sociales (APL, RSA…) seront versées le même jour du mois, un

qui ont
trimestre maximum après la constatation des revenus (contre jusqu’à 2 ans aujourd’hui).

Nous créerons un « accélérateur » d’associations.


Elles font un travail formidable, mais il est difficile pour elles de toucher tous leurs publics.

moins
Cette nouvelle structure sera chargée de déployer sur l’ensemble du territoire et en moins
de 5 ans les associations les plus utiles à notre société.

PLUS POUR LA SANTÉ


Nous mettrons en place la prise en charge à 100%
des lunettes et des prothèses auditives et dentaires
d’ici 2022, en lien avec les mutuelles et l’ensemble des professionnels de santé.
Nous consacrerons 5 milliards d’euros de notre Plan
d’investissement à la santé, notamment à la transformation de notre
médecine de ville et de nos hôpitaux.

Nous créerons un service sanitaire. 40 000 étudiants en santé


consacreront 3 mois à des actions de prévention dans les écoles et les entreprises.

Nous renforcerons le droit à l’oubli pour les personnes


ayant été malades. Au moment de souscrire un emprunt ou un contrat
Le plus insupportable, en France, c’est que plus on part du bas d’assurance, les malades de cancers et de l’hépatite C n’auront plus à le mentionner
de l’échelle sociale, plus les obstacles s’accumulent : en matière dès 5 ans après leur rémission (contre 10 ans aujourd’hui). Nous l’étendrons aussi
à de nouvelles maladies.
d’éducation, de santé, de logement, d’accès à l’emploi, au crédit,
ou aux vacances... Et à l’inverse, plus on est haut dans la société, Nous doublerons le nombre de maisons de santé.
plus les barrières se lèvent d’elles-mêmes. Pour lutter contre les déserts médicaux, ces maisons regrouperont des médecins, des
L’égalité ne consiste donc pas à faire pareil pour tout le monde : infirmières, des orthophonistes, des kinésithérapeutes, des professionnels du sport…
sinon on ne corrige pas toutes ces injustices ! PLUS POUR LES PERSONNES
La vraie égalité consiste plutôt à faire plus pour ceux qui ont E N S I T U AT I O N D E H A N D I C A P
moins : les mères célibataires, les habitants des territoires Nous donnerons accès à un(e) auxiliaire de vie
abandonnés, les jeunes décrocheurs qui ont cessé d’aller à l’école, scolaire à tous les enfants qui en ont besoin pour avoir
les seniors victimes d’un chômage de longue durée, et surtout une scolarité comme les autres. Ces AVS auront un emploi stable
les 9 millions de Français pauvres. et un salaire décent.
Il faut donc concentrer nos efforts là où ils sont les plus Nous augmenterons de 100 euros par mois
indispensables. l’Allocation Adulte Handicapé (AAH).
22 R ET R O U VEZ TOU TE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S UR E N-MAR C HE .FR 23
Nous créerons un droit à l’erreur pour tous.
Le cœur de la mission de l’administration ne sera plus la sanction mais le conseil
et l’accompagnement, sauf en matière pénale, ou lorsque la sécurité est engagée.
Par exemple, aujourd’hui, un employeur qui oublie de déclarer à l’URSSAF la prime
de Noël qu’il verse à ses salariés est condamné à une amende. Il pourra demain faire
valoir son droit à l’erreur. Aujourd’hui, des grands-parents qui hébergent leur petite-fille
parce qu’elle vient de trouver un emploi près de chez eux doivent la déclarer à la CAF
sous peine de perdre une partie de leurs allocations logement et de payer des pénalités.
Ils pourront demain faire valoir leur droit à l’erreur et ne plus payer de pénalités.

Nous passerons à la vitesse supérieure en ce qui


concerne la numérisation de l’administration.
Tous les renouvellements de documents officiels (carte d’identité, passeport, carte
grise, etc.) devront pouvoir se faire en ligne, sans nécessité de se déplacer. Les horaires
d’ouverture des services publics seront par ailleurs élargis aux soirées et au samedi
pour s’adapter aux nouveaux modes de vie des Français.

Rendre la vie Nous donnerons aux préfets la capacité d’adapter


l’organisation des services de l’État aux besoins

des Français
de chaque région et département.
Nous ne rajouterons aucune norme nationale

plus facile
aux normes européennes dans les secteurs agricole,
maritime et de la pêche.
Tous les services publics accueillant du public (hôpital, école,
tribunal, CAF, etc.) seront tenus d’afficher leurs résultats
Des décennies d’accumulation de normes et de règlements ont rendu la vie en termes de qualité de service (ex : temps d’attente, taux
de chacune et chacun plus compliquée au jour le jour. Que de temps perdu de satisfaction, etc.)
en démarches administratives, en renouvellement de papiers, ou à cause
Nous établirons dans chaque département
de la lenteur de nos procédures de justice !
un tribunal de première instance qui sera le guichet
Pour les entrepreneurs, c’est la même chose. Certains passent plus unique permettant un accès facilité au juge.
de temps à lutter contre les contraintes administratives qu’à développer Nous ne fermerons aucun site.
leur entreprise. Les élus locaux aussi se heurtent à des normes qui évoluent
tout le temps et qui coûtent de plus en plus cher. Nous raccourcirons les délais de jugement pour
les litiges inférieurs à 4000 euros. La procédure les concernant
La justification de cette énorme accumulation de règles et d’obligations sera entièrement dématérialisée et la décision sera rendue en ligne.
ne peut pas être seulement qu’elles ont toujours été là…
De nouveaux outils, par exemple numériques, existent déjà ou apparaissent
chaque année pour rendre les choses plus faciles.
C’est donc une révolution culturelle qu’il faut mener, notamment dans
nos administrations.
24 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 25
Une démocratie Nous proposerons une grande loi de moralisation
de la vie publique. Elle comprendra :

rénovée
L’interdiction pour les parlementaires d’exercer des activités
de conseil parallèlement à leur mandat, pour mettre fin
aux conflits d’intérêt. Toutes leurs indemnités seront soumises à l’impôt.
L’interdiction de toute embauche par un élu ou un ministre
d’un membre de sa famille.
L’interdiction du cumul de plus de trois mandats identiques
successifs.
L’interdiction pour tous les détenteurs d’un casier judiciaire
(niveau B2) de se présenter à une élection.
La suppression du régime spécial des retraites
des parlementaires. Ils seront rattachés au régime général.
La présentation, par le président de la République, de son bilan
national et européen une fois par an devant le Congrès.

Nous améliorerons le renouvellement et le pluralisme


de notre vie politique.
Nous réduirons d’environ un tiers le nombre de députés
et de sénateurs. Ils disposeront de moyens supplémentaires pour faire
leur travail.
Nous obligerons les formations politiques à respecter la parité
dans la présentation de leurs candidats. Et nous diminuerons
le financement public des formations politiques qui auront une représentation
déséquilibrée en termes de parité.
Année après année, le regard que nous portons sur notre classe politique Nous ferons de la procédure d’urgence la procédure par défaut
se dégrade sans que rien ne change vraiment. d’examen des textes législatifs afin d’accélérer le travail
parlementaire.
Il est faux de prétendre que rien n’a été fait pour tenter de retisser un lien Nous entamerons une rénovation du fonctionnement
de confiance entre la Nation et ses représentants. Mais ce n’est pas assez. parlementaire en limitant le nombre de mois pendant lesquels le Parlement
Des pratiques que l’on pensait impossibles, parce qu’elles sont à l’évidence légifère et en réservant plus de temps à l’évaluation et au contrôle de l’action
inacceptables, sont en réalité répandues – comme l’embauche par les élus du gouvernement, en s’appuyant sur les travaux de la Cour des comptes.
de membres de leur propre famille. Le soupçon s’est installé, qui nourrit
les extrêmes et affaiblit notre vie politique.
Nous développerons la participation des citoyens.
Nous demanderons aux parlementaires de mettre en place
Il faut donc aller plus loin dans la transparence et l’exigence. des dispositifs innovants d’évaluation du travail parlementaire
Mais il faut aussi avoir le courage d’aller plus loin vers la confiance et législatif (jurys citoyens, compte-rendus de mandat via les réseaux sociaux...).
et la proximité. Nos représentants nous ressemblent trop peu… La France Nous encouragerons les communes à développer les budgets
est en effet peuplée pour une bonne moitié de femmes, pour un bon quart participatifs, c’est-à-dire à consulter directement les citoyens sur l’utilisation
de l’argent public.
de jeunes, pour un bon cinquième de Français d’origine étrangère plus
ou moins lointaine… Or ces visages, cette diversité, ces parcours différents,
nous ne les retrouvons pas assez sur les bancs du Parlement !
26 R ET R O U VEZ TOU TE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S UR E N-MAR C HE .FR 27
Les territoires Nous exonérerons de la taxe d’habitation tous
les Français des classes moyennes et populaires

qui font notre (soit 80% des ménages).


C’est un impôt injuste : on paye souvent beaucoup plus quand on vit dans une commune

France
populaire que dans une commune riche. Dès 2020, 4 Français sur 5 ne paieront plus la taxe
d’habitation, et l’État remboursera entièrement auprès des communes leur manque
à gagner, à l’euro près, en préservant leur autonomie fiscale.

Nous couvrirons en très haut débit ou en fibre


l’ensemble du territoire.
Ce sera fait d’ici la fin du prochain quinquennat, pour ne laisser aucun territoire à la traîne
de la transition numérique. Les opérateurs téléphoniques doubleront la couverture mobile
en zone rurale pour réduire les zones sans réseau, et l’État prendra ses responsabilités
partout où cela est nécessaire.

Nous réduirons le millefeuille administratif.


Nous supprimerons au moins un quart des départements, là où ils peuvent être
rapprochés de l’une de nos grandes métropoles.

Nous accélérerons la construction de logements


là où c’est nécessaire.
Beaucoup de nos territoires se sentent progressivement délaissés, Nous mettrons en place des procédures accélérées dans les zones où le logement coûte
voire abandonnés. trop cher. Cela permettra de construire plus vite des logements et de faire baisser les prix
de l’immobilier.
À côté de la France des métropoles, où beaucoup réussissent, il y a
des quartiers et des banlieues populaires où tout est plus dur et plus Nous réformerons radicalement notre politique
compliqué, même s’ils ne sont qu’à quelques kilomètres de distance. des transports.
De nombreux Français se sont installés un peu plus loin, pour Car l’enjeu n’est plus de construire partout des autoroutes, des aéroports et des lignes
de TGV. C’est, grâce à notre Plan d’investissement, de moderniser les réseaux existants
chercher un logement un peu moins cher ou un peu plus spacieux, et de développer de nouveaux services pour que tous les territoires soient raccordés
mais ils doivent affronter des distances toujours plus grandes pour efficacement aux lieux de travail, d’éducation, de culture ou de soins.
trouver un emploi, mettre leurs enfants à l’école, se faire soigner
ou accéder à des loisirs de qualité. Nous lancerons un Plan de Transition Agricole
de 5 milliards d’euros.
Il y a la France de la ruralité. Elle est dépositaire d’une part de notre
Il soutiendra tous les projets de montée en gamme des exploitations, d’adaptation
identité. Et nous n’avons pas le droit de laisser mourir certains aux normes environnementales et de bien-être animal.
territoires comme beaucoup de nos paysans en ont parfois
le sentiment. Nous développerons la continuité territoriale
Il y a la France des outremers. Grâce à elle, nous sommes présents au profit des outre-mers.
à travers le monde. Mais trop souvent, nous ne la considérons pas D’ici la fin du quinquennat, nous proposerons chaque année aux ultra-marins au moins
200 000 billets d’avion à prix aidé en particulier pour les étudiants et les entrepreneurs
à sa juste valeur. pour leur mobilité entre les outremers et l’Hexagone, et dans leur environnement
Nous sommes fiers de tous ces territoires. À égalité. Car tous régional. Nous installerons en outre-mer l’Agence Française pour la biodiversité.
ont des atouts pour réussir. Ensemble. Nous permettrons aux collectivités d’outre-mer de modifier la réglementation de droit
commun pour l’adapter à leur situation particulière.
28 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 29
SÉRIEUX Découvrez toutes
les propositions
d’Emmanuel Macron
ET RESPONSABILITÉ
Nous savons tous que l’État est lourdement endetté.
sur en-marche.fr
Il n’y a pas de politique qui vaille sans responsabilité budgétaire. C’est pour
cela qu’il faut RÉDUIRE NOS DÉFICITS. La France s’y est engagée
mais c’est surtout un devoir à l’égard des générations futures. La première
exigence, c’est de respecter cet engagement envers les Français. Nous
effectuerons donc 60 milliards d’économies, en responsabilisant les ministres
sur leurs objectifs de réduction des dépenses.
La deuxième exigence, c’est de FAIRE DES CHOIX : cibler un petit
nombre de dépenses prioritaires (l’éducation, la défense, la sécurité et
la justice) et sélectionner les baisses de prélèvements qui créeront
de l’activité économique et de l’emploi. Nos baisses d’impôts seront
réparties de manière juste entre les ménages et les entreprises, et seront
financées par nos économies. Nous mettrons fin à l’instabilité fiscale. Une loi
d’orientation votée en 2017 fixera pour 5 ans l’évolution de la fiscalité sur
le quinquennat. Nous ne réformerons pas plusieurs fois un même impôt
dans le quinquennat.
La troisième exigence, c’est de RENOUER AVEC L’EXCELLENCE
DE NOS SERVICES PUBLICS. Nous sommes attachés à notre hôpital,
à notre école. Nous voulons qu’ils redeviennent les meilleurs, pour que nos
agents publics soient respectés à leur juste valeur. Nous voulons un État
agile, concentré sur les priorités du pays, qui s’adapte à nos besoins et à nos
modes de vie. Efficacité, simplicité, adaptabilité : c’est aussi comme cela que
nous ferons des économies.
La quatrième exigence, c’est d’INVESTIR POUR TRANSFORMER.
À l’heure du numérique, de la transition écologique, de la révolution
des compétences, c’est la condition pour dépenser moins et mieux demain :
former les chômeurs plutôt qu’attendre que l’économie aille mieux ; isoler
les bâtiments plutôt que de trop dépenser en chauffage ; et moderniser
l’agriculture plutôt que de payer des aides d’urgence. Nous en tirerons
rapidement les fruits.
30
@EmmanuelMacron @EnMarcheFr

1er tour de l’élection


présidentielle :
dimanche 23 avril 2017
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Sentence Reducedfor
Ex-C.I.A. Officer Sought
byltaly
By ELISABETIA POVOLEDO

ROME - A 10-year legal battle over the


"extraordinacy rendition" of a terrorism
suspect by American intelligence agents
seemed to draw nearer to resolution on Sabrina de
Sousa, a former
Tuesday, when the president of Italy C.I.A. officer, in
commuted part of a prison sentence that 2013 ather
homein
one former C.I.A. officer had been given in Washington. On
absentia. Tuesday,
President Sergio
The president's decree opens the way for the Mattarella of
Italy reduced
former officer, Sabrina de Sousa, 61, to Ms. de sousa's
avoid imprisonment, by serving her s~ntenc~ for
• • kidnapp1ng to
rema1n1ng sentence some other way, such as three
through monitored release or community years.Barbara L.
. Salisbury/MCT,
seIVIce. via Getty Images

Ms. de Sousa was indicted in 2ooz, along with 25


other Americans, over the kidnapping of a radical
Egyptian cleric in Milan in 2003. Severa} high-ranking
ltalian intelligence officials also were indicted, but the
case against them fell apart when evidence was
withheld from the court on national security grounds.

Ms. de Sousa and the other Americans left Italy before


the indictment, so they were tried and convicted in
absentia. Most have remained beyond the reach of
Italian law by not traveling to Europe. But Ms. de
Sousa, who has both American and Portuguese
citizenship, moved to Portugal in 2015 for family
reasons. Since October 2015, she has been fighting in
the Portuguese courts to avoid extradition to Italy;
most recently, she was detained on Feb. 21 in Lisbon
and was scheduled to be sent to Milan by Thursday.

Ms. de Sousa was initially sentenced to seven years for


kidnapping; that was later reduced to four years, and
President Sergio Mattarella reduced it on Tuesday to
three. Under Italian law, sentences of three years or
less are eligible for alternatives to imprisonment.

After Mr. Mattarella acted, the Italian authorities


revoked the arrest warrant that was the basis for the
extradition order. Ms. de Sousa now has 30 days to
petition a court in Milan for alternative punishment. It
was not immediately clear when she would do so.
"She'll come to Italy to defend herself as a free
woman," said Dario Bolognesi, Ms. de Sousa's Italian
lawyer, who has been seeking a pardon for his client
for more than four years. "We're very happy with the
outcome."

Had she gane to prison, Ms. de Sousa, would have


been the first former e.I.A. operative to serve time in
prison outside the United States aver the controversia!
rendition program. Two of the Americans convicted
along with her have been pardoned, and a third had
his sentence reduced.

Her role in the case carne to light when Italian


prosecutors were investigating the 2003 abduction of
the cleric, Hassan Mustafa Osama Nasr, also known as
Abu Omar, who was seized in Milan and taken to
Egypt.

Mr. Nasr, who had been granted politica! asylum in


Italy, said he was interrogated and tortured in Egypt
before being released. His case helped fuel a broad
debate aver the practice, begun after the Sept. 11,
2001, attacks, of abducting terrorism suspects and
transferring them to other countries or to secret e.I.A.
prisons abroad for interrogation.
In the years since she left the C.I.A., Ms. de Sousa has
been publicly critica! of the rendition program. Even
so, some human rights advocates expressed
disappointment at the Italian president's clemency for
her.

"It is very worrying, and sends a clear message that


you can engage in what amount to be crimes under
international law - torture and enforced
disappearance - and get away with it," said Julia Hall
of Amnesty International. "Pardoning people, or giving
lesser sentences effectively letting them off the hook, is
not the way to give victims of these crimes justice."

Ms. Hall did, however, criticize the conviction in


absentia of Ms. de Sousa, and said she should have the
right to a "fair retrial" and the chance to contest the
charges against her. "Without that process, this
remains unfinished business," she said.

Under Italian law, Ms. de Sousa has exhausted her


appeals, though, so a new trial did not appear to be a
possibility.

Mr. Mattarella's statement announcing the reduction


of the sentence said he had taken into account that the
United States had discontinued the rendition program
and that her sentence was out of balance with the
consequences others in the case had faced.

Ms. de Sousa's lawyer, Mr. Bolognesi, said her


sentence "was so clearly an injustice, when three
others were pardoned, state secrecy was invoked for
some defendants, and yet she was facing prison.

"It made no sense, in particular because she later took


a strong position against renditions."

Follow Elisabetta Povoledo on Twitter @EPovoledo.


Set to Lift Rate, Fed Adopts Hope Felt by
lnvestors
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

The Federa} Reserve is poised to raise its benchmark interest rate in mid-March,
significantly sooner than investors had expected, as it moves to keep pace with a
wave of economie optimism that started with the election of President Trump.

In an unusually clear statement about a pending decision, the Fed chairwoman,


J anet L. Yellen, said on Friday in Chicago that the centra} bank was likely to act at
its next policy-making meeting - barring any unpleasant economie surprises.

Ms. Yellen added that the Fed still expected to raise rates twice more later in the
year, which she said would bring the benchmark rate close to a level that the Fed
regards as neutra}, with low rates no longer providing an inducement for
borrowing and risk-taking. That outlook signals that an end is finally in sight for
the Fed's economie stimulus campaign, devised during the depths of the financial
crisis more than eight years ago.

Stanley Fischer, the Fed's vice chairman, delivered the same message at the same
time at a conference in New York. "We've seen a lot of substantial change in a
relatively short time," Mr. Fischer said of the postelection shift in economie
conditions. "There is almost no economie indicator that has come in badly in the
last three months."

Asked whether Fed officials were delivering a coordinated message, Mr. Fischer
responded wryly, "If there has been a conscious effort, I'm about to join it."

The impending rate increase could heighten tensions with the White House, which
wants to stimulate growth by cutting taxes, reducing regulation and increasing
defense and infrastructure spending. Fed officials bave concluded the economy is
already growing at something close to the maximum sustainable pace, meaning
faster growth should be offset by faster rate increases.

Financial markets, however, are taking the prospect ofhigher rates in stride. The
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, which is up more than 11 percent since
Election Day, ended trading on Friday mostly flat.

The prospective Fed move has modest short-term implications for consumers.
Interest rates on car loans and some kinds of credit card debt will tick upward, but
remain at low levels by historical standards. Rates on 30-year mortgages are up by
about half a percentage point over the past year.

The broader consequences depend on the Fed's ability to raise interest rates
without slowing economie growth. The Fed's goal is to return rates to a level that
neither encourages nor impedes economie activity. Over the past century, however,
most of the centrai bank's attempts to strike that balance have ended in economie
recess10ns.

The American economy is in the midst of one of the longest expansions in the
nation's history, but it is also one of the weakest. The economy expanded by 1.6
percent in 2016, compared with 2.6 percent in 2015, according to the government's
most recent estimate.

Fed officials have concluded, however, that monetary policy cannot deliver faster
growth. The Fed's job is to minimize unemployment and moderate inflation. The
unemployment rate, at 4.8 percent in January, is in a range Fed officials regard as
healthy, and prices rose 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in January, the closest
the Fed has come since 2012 to hitting its target of 2 percent annual inflation.

In December, the Fed raised its benchmark rate for just the second time since the
financial crisis, to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, and predicted three
increases in 2017.

At the beginning ofthe week, however, Wall Street analysts and investors did not
expect the Fed to raise rates again any earlier than June. The Fed issued a
measured statement after its policy meeting in early February, and the meeting
minutes, published three weeks later, conveyed little sense of urgency.

Now, after a week of discussions, analysts regard a March increase as highly likely.

Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist at JPMorgan Chase, described
the shift in Fed language as "remarkably swift and decisive." Investors put the
chances at almost 80 percent in trading on Friday, according to an analysis of asset
prices by CME Group.

Some Fed officials appear particularly focused on the rise of the stock market.
William C. Dudley, the president ofthe Federai Reserve Bank ofNewYork, who
described markets as "very buoyant" on Tuesday, has said in the past that if
markets did not respond to rate increases, the Fed might need to act more
forcefully to tighten financial conditions.

lt is also getting harder to dismiss the market's reaction to Mr. Trump's victory as a
bout of temporary euphoria. Mr. Fischer noted on Friday that the stock market
boom was creating wealth that people would begin to spend.

Ms. Yellen pointed to an improvement in the global context. "The prospects for
further moderate economie growth look encouraging, particularly as risks
emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat," she said.

The shift in the Fed's language over the last week also may reflect a recognition
that market expectations were not keeping pace with the Fed's evolving view of the
economy. Ms. Yellen, in a February appearance before Congress, hinted that the
Fed might be providing a little too much stimulus, describing the Fed's policy as
"accommodative." But at the start of this week, investors still put a low probability
on a March increase.

Markets are wary ofthe Fed's flirtations with interest rate increases, as the centrai
bank in recent years has often found reasons for last-minute postponements.

This time, the Fed chose to overwhelm any lingering doubts.

On Tuesday, Mr. Dudley told CNBC that the case fora rate increase "has become a
lot more compelling."

On Wednesday, Lael Brainard, a Fed governor who has been one ofthe most
consistent supporters of raising interest rates slowly, suggested that she too was
ready to act.

"We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our
target, foreign growth is on more solid footing, and risks to the outlook are as dose
to balanced as they have been in some time," Ms. Brainard said at Harvard's
Kennedy School of Government. "Assuming continued progress, it will likely be
appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a graduai
path."

Fed officials often bury their latest views on monetary policy at the end of their
speeches. Ms. Brainard's remarks carne at the beginning, so that no one missed the
point.

On Thursday, another Fed governor, Jerome H. Powell, issued a similarly blunt


notice of intent in an interview with CNBC. "I think the case for a rate increase for
March has come together, and I think it's on the table for discussion," he said.

Then carne Friday, the last day on which Fed rules allowed officials to comment on
monetary policy before the March meeting, and Ms. Yellen delivered the last word.

"At our meeting later this month," she said, "the committee will evaluate whether
employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in
which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be
appropriate."

The committee is scheduled to meet in Washington on March 14 and 15.

Follow Binyamin Appelbaum on Twitter @bcappelbaum.

https://nyti.ms/21Dx1 Rm
Editorials, Op-Ed and Letters I EDITORIAL

The Pope and the Panhandler


By THE EDITORIAL BOARO

New Yorkers, if not city dwellers everywhere, might acknowledge a debt to Pope
Francis this week. He has offered a concrete, permanently useful prescription for
dealing with panhandlers.

lt's this: Give them the money, and don't worry about it.

The pope's advice, from an interview with a Milan magazine published just before
the beginning of Lent, is startlingly simple. lt's scripturally sound, yet possibly
confounding, even subversive.

Living in the city - especially in metropolises where homelessness is an unsolved,


unending crisis - means that at some point in your day, or week, a person seeming
(or claiming) to be homeless, or suffering with a disability, will ask you for help.

You probably already have a panhandler policy.

You keep walking, or not. You give, or not. Loose coins, a dollar, or just a shake of
the head. Your rule may be blanket, or case-by-case.

If it's case by case, that means you have your own on-the-spot, individualized
benefits program, with a bit of means-testing, mental health and character
assessment, and criminal-background check- to the extent that any ofthis is
possible from a second or two of looking someone up and down.

Francis' solution eliminates that effort. But it is by no means effortless.

Speaking to the magazine Scarp de' Tenis, which means Tennis Shoes, a monthly
for and about the homeless and marginalized, the pope said that giving something
to someone in need is "always right." (We're helped here by the translation in an
article from Catholic News Service.)

But what if someone uses the money for, say, a glass of wine? (A perfectly Milanese
question.) His answer: If "a glass of wine is the only happiness he has in life, that's
O.K. Instead, ask yourself, what do you do on the sly? What 'happiness' do you
seek in secret?" Another way to look at it, he said, is to recognize how you are the
"luckier" one, with a home, a spouse and children, and then ask why your
responsibility to help should be pushed onto someone else.
Then he posed a greater challenge. He said the way of giving is as important as the
gift. You should not simply drop a bill into a cup and walk away. You must stop,
look the person in the eyes, and touch his or her hands.

The reason is to preserve dignity, to see another person not as a pathology or a


social condition, but as a human, with a life whose value is equal to your own. This
message runs through Francis' preaching and writings, which always seem to turn
on the practical and persona!, often citing the people he met and served as a parish
priest in Argentina.

His teaching on divorced and remarried Catholics has infuriated some conservative
critics who accuse him, unfairly, of elevating compassion over doctrine. His recent
statements on refugees and immigrants are the global version of his panhandler
remarks - a rebuke aimed directly at the rich nations of Europe and at the United
States.

America is in the middle of a raging argument over poor outcasts. The president
speaks ofbuilding walls and repelling foreigners. That toxic mind-set can be
opposed in Washington, but it can also be confronted on the sidewalk. You don't
know what that guy will do with your dollar. Maybe you' d disapprove of what he
does. Maybe compassion is the right call.

https://nyti.ms/21FJMLg
Editorials, Op-Ed and Letters I OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

How to Stop Populism's Carnage


By TONY BLAIR

LONDON - Outrage is easy; strategy is hard. Outrage provides necessary


motivation. But only strategy can deliver victory.

The emotional response to the rightist populism sweeping the West is one of
protest and dismay. But ifthere is to be an effective fightback, there has to be a
cool analysis of what is happening, why and what can be done.

Politics is being reshaped, and this phenomenon is the same whether it is in the
United States or in Europe. At stake in the forthcoming elections in France and
Germany will be the future of Europe and, possibly, of European liberal
democracy.

The rightist populism, on both sides of the Atlantic, is intent on blowing up


traditional conservative politics and replacing it with a new coalition, comprising
traditionally left-leaning supporters in working-class communities who feel left
behind by globalization and traditionally right-leaning supporters who hate
liberalism. Both constituencies believe that traditional culture is at risk from
immigration and "politica! correctness." Both believe in the nation-state as
opposed to international alliances. Both feel let down by the so-called elites and
think that the solution is an authoritarian figure strong enough not to care what a
biased establishment thinks about him.

This is a revolution that is partly economie, but mainly cultura!. The new coalition
differs from the old Reagan-Thatcher one, though it has some similarities. Back in
the 198os, working-class voters moved to the right because they felt that the left
didn't satisfy their aspirations for self-improvement. That was a cultura! issue, of
course; but it was primarily an economie one. lt was not so much that they felt
fearful as that they felt held back.

Today is different. The modus operandi of this populism is not to reason but to
roar. lt has at times an anarchie feel. Yet it has also mobilized a powerful media
behind it. lts supporters welcome the outrage their leaders provoke. This polarizes
public discourse and enhances their sense of belonging, so that even when they're
in government, they act as if they were excluded from it.

Meanwhile, traditional conservatives feel like strangers in their own land. They are
unsure whether to play along with the new order on the basis that it will soon pass
or to accept that this is a revolution aimed at overturning their authority and fight
it.

The causes of this movement are the scale, scope and speed of change. This is
occurring economically as jobs are displaced and communities fractured, and
culturally as the force of globalization moves the rest of the world closer and blurs
old boundaries of nation, race and culture.

The same dynamics are splintering the left, too. One element has aligned with the
right in revolt against globalization, but with business taking the place of migrants
as the chief evil. They agree with the right-wing populists about elites, though for
the left the elites are the wealthy, while for the right they're the liberals.

This leftist populism is a profound error. It has no chance ofmatching the populist
appeal of the right, and it dangerously validates some of the right's arguments. This
only fuels a cynicism that depresses support for the more progressive parts of the
left's program.

But this left tendency has gained from the seeming paralysis of the center. The
parties and politicians of the center bave become the managers of the status quo in
an era when people want change. So, the center - in both its center-right and
center-left camps - is marginalized, even despised.

The question is, will this be a temporary phase, perhaps linked to the aftermath of
the 2008 financial crisis and Sept. 11, and will politics soon revert to normal, or has
a new politica} age begun?

The party structures on both sides of the Atlantic bave their origins in the
Industria} Revolution and the debates engendered by that epoch about socialism
and capitalism, the market and the state. These parties bave endured because the
roots they put down were very strong. But now, there are different distinctions
than those simply of traditional right and left.

When I was growing up, people like my dad were conservative; and that meant
economically and socially. Today, many such voters don't fit that old stereotype.
They may be pro-private enterprise and conservative on economics in traditional
terms, but they're also socially liberal - in favor, for instance, of gay rights. And
there are those who used to vote left, but who are culturally illiberal and now don't
mind voting for parties of the wealthy.

Today, a distinction that often matters more than traditional right and left is open
vs. closed. The open-minded see globalization as an opportunity but one with
challenges that should be mitigated; the closed-minded see the outside world as a
threat. This distinction crosses traditional party lines and thus has no organizing
base, no natural channel for representation in electoral politics.

Politics in most European countries, and certainly in the United States, is still
dominated by the traditional parties of right and left. Under pressure from radical
populism, though, it's shifting more to the extremes, as we're seeing with the
British Labour Party and the French Socialists.

So this leaves a big space in the center. For the progressive wing of politics, the
correct strategy is to make the case for building a new coalition out from the
center. To do so, progressives need to acknowledge the genuine cultura! anxieties
of those voters who have deserted the cause of social progress: on immigration, the
threat of radical Islamism and the difference between being progressive and
appearing obsessive on issues like gender identity.

The center needs to develop a new policy agenda that shows people they will get
support to help them through the change that's happening around them. At the
heart of this has to be an alliance between those driving the technological
revolution, in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, and those responsible for public policy
in government. At present, there is a chasm of understanding between the two.
There will inevitably continue to be a negative impact on jobs from artificial
intelligence and big data, but the opportunities to change lives for the better
through technology are enormous.

Any new agenda has to focus on these opportunities for radical change in the way
that government and services like health care serve people. This must include how
we educate, skill and equip our work forces for the future; how we reform tax and
welfare systems to encourage more fair distribution of wealth; and how we
replenish our nations' infrastructures and invest in the communities most harmed
by trade and technology.

Progressives must reach across the party divide, making a virtue of


nonpartisanship. Those who feel dispossessed within existing party structures
should make common cause, and do so unashamedly. This is exactly what those of
us are doing in Britain who are making the case for staying in a reformed European
Union.

The politics of the progressive center has not died, but it needs reinventing and re-
energizing. For liberal democracy to survive and thrive, we must build a new
coalition that is popular, not populist.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter
(@NYTOpinion), and sign upfor the Opinion Today newsletter.
Tony Blair, aformer leader ofthe Labour Party, was prime minister of Britain
from 1997 to 2007.

https://nyti.ms/211NzC2 J
Uber Uses Tech to Deceive Authorities
Worldwide
By MIKE ISAAC

SAN FRANCISCO - Uber has for years engaged in a worldwide program to deceive
the authorities in markets where its low-cost ride-hailing service was resisted by
law enforcement or, in some instances, had been banned.

The program, involving a tool called Greyball, uses data collected from the Uber
app and other techniques to identify and circumvent officials who were trying to
clamp down on the ride-hailing service. Uber used these methods to evade the
authorities in cities like Boston, Paris and Las Vegas, and in countries like
Australia, China and South Korea.

Greyball was part of a program called VTOS, short for "violation of terms of
service," which Uber created to root out people it thought were using or targeting
its service improperly. The program, including Greyball, began as early as 2014
and remains in use, predominantly outside the United States. Greyball was
approved by Uber's legai team.

Greyball and the VTOS program were described to The New York Times by four
current and former Uber employees, who also provided documents. The four spoke
on the condition of anonymity because the tools and their use are confidential and
because of fear of retaliation by Uber.

Uber's use of Greyball was recorded on video in late 2014, when Erich England, a
code enforcement inspector in Portland, Ore., tried to hail an Uber car downtown
in a sting operation against the company.

At the time, Uber had just started its ride-hailing service in Portland without
seeking permission from the city, which later declared the service illegal. To build a
case against the company, officers like Mr. England posed as riders, opening the
Uber app to hail a car and watching as miniature vehicles on the screen made their
way toward the potential fares.

But unknown to Mr. England and other authorities, some ofthe digitai cars they
saw in the app did not represent actual vehicles. And the Uber drivers they were
able to hail also quickly canceled. That was because Uber had tagged Mr. England
and his colleagues - essentially Greyballing them as city officials - based on data
collected from the app and in other ways. The company then served up a fake
version of the app, populated with ghost cars, to evade capture.

At a time when Uber is already under scrutiny for its boundary-pushing workplace
culture, its use of the Greyball tool underscores the lengths to which the company
will go to dominate its market. Uber has long flouted laws and regulations to gain
an edge against entrenched transportation providers, a modus operandi that has
helped propel it into more than 70 countries and to a valuation close to $70 billion.

Yet using its app to identify and sidestep the authorities where regulators said Uber
was breaking the law goes further toward skirting ethical lines - and, potentially,
legal ones. Some at Uber who knew of the VTOS program and how the Greyball
tool was being used were troubled by it.

In a statement, Uber said, "This program denies ride requests to users who are
violating our terms of service - whether that's people aiming to physically harm
drivers, competitors looking to disrupt our operations, or opponents who collude
with officials on secret 'stings' meant to entrap drivers."

The mayor of Portland, Ted Wheeler, said in a statement, "I am very concerned
that Uber may have purposefully worked to thwart the city's job to protect the
public."

Uber, which lets people hail rides using a smartphone app, operates multiple types
of services, including a luxury Black Car offering in which drivers are commercially
licensed. But an Uber service that many regulators have had problems with is the
lower-cost version, known in the United States as UberX.

UberX essentially lets people who have passed a background check and vehicle
inspection become Uber drivers quickly. In the past, many cities have banned the
service and declared it illegal.

That is because the ability to summon a noncommercial driver - which is how


UberX drivers using private vehicles are typically categorized - was often
unregulated. In barreling into new markets, Uber capitalized on this lack of
regulation to quickly enlist UberX drivers and put them to work before local
regulators could stop them.

After the authorities caught on to what was happening, Uber and local officials
often clashed. Uber has encountered legal problems over UberX in cities including
Austin, Tex., Philadelphia and Tampa, Fla., as well as internationally. Eventually,
agreements were reached under which regulators developed a legal framework for
the low-cost service.
That approach has been costly. Law enforcement officials in some cities bave
impounded vehicles or issued tickets to UberX drivers, with Uber generally picking
up those costs on the drivers' behalf. The company has estimated thousands of
dollars in lost revenue for every vehicle impounded and ticket received.

This is where the VfOS program and the use of the Greyball tool carne in. When
Uber moved into a new city, it appointed a general manager to lead the charge.
This person, using various technologies and techniques, would try to spot
enforcement officers.

One technique involved drawing a digital perimeter, or "geofence," around the


government offices on a digital map of a city that Uber was monitoring. The
company watched which people were frequently opening and closing the app - a
process known internally as eyeballing - near such locations as evidence that the
users might be associated with city agencies.

Other techniques included looking at a user's credit card information and


determining whether the card was tied directly to an institution like a police credit
umon.

Enforcement officials involved in large-scale sting operations meant to catch Uber


drivers would sometimes buy dozens of cellphones to create different accounts. To
circumvent that tactic, Uber employees would go to local electronics stores to look
up device numbers of the cheapest mobile phones for sale, which were often the
ones bought by city officials working with budgets that were not large.

In all, there were at least a dozen or so signifiers in the VfOS program that Uber
employees could use to assess whether users were regular new riders or probably
city officials.

If such clues did not confirm a user's identity, Uber employees would search social
media profiles and other information available online. If users were identified as
being linked to law enforcement, Uber Greyballed them by tagging them with a
small piece of code that read "Greyball" followed by a string of numbers.

When someone tagged this way called a car, Uber could scramble a set of ghost
cars in a fake version of the app for that person to see, or show that no cars were
available. Occasionally, ifa driver accidentally picked up someone tagged as an
officer, Uber called the driver with instructions to end the ride.

Uber employees said the practices and tools were born in part out of safety
measures meant to protect drivers in some countries. In France, India and Kenya,
for instance, taxi companies and workers targeted and attacked new Uber drivers.
"They're beating the cars with metal bats," the singer Courtney Love posted on
Twitter from an Uber car in Paris at a time of clashes between the company and
taxi drivers in 2015. Ms. Love said that protesters had ambushed her Uber ride and
had held her driver hostage. "This is France? I'm safer in Baghdad."

Uber has said it was also at risk from tactics used by taxi and limousine companies
in some markets. In Tampa, for instance, Uber cited collusion between the locai
transportation authority and taxi companies in fighting ride-hailing services.

In those areas, Greyballing started as a way to scramble the locations of UberX


drivers to prevent competitors from finding them. Uber said that was still the tool's
pnmaryuse.

But as Uber moved into new markets, its engineers saw that the same methods
could be used to evade law enforcement. Once the Greyball tool was put in piace
and tested, Uber engineers created a playbook with a list of tactics and distributed
it to generai managers in more than a dozen countries on five continents.

At least 50 people inside Uber knew about Greyball, and some had qualms about
whether it was ethical or legai. Greyball was approved by Uber's legai team, led by
Salle Yoo, the company's generai counsel. Ryan Graves, an early hire who became
senior vice president of global operations and a board member, was also aware of
the program.

Ms. Yoo and Mr. Graves did not respond to requests for comment.

Outside legai specialists said they were uncertain about the legality of the program.
Greyball could be considered a violation of the federai Computer Fraud and Abuse
Act, or possibly intentional obstruction of justice, depending on locai laws and
jurisdictions, said Peter Henning, a law professor at Wayne State University who
also writes for The New York Times.

"With any type of systematic thwarting of the law, you're flirting with disaster,"
Professor Henning said. "We all take our foot off the gas when we see the police car
at the intersection up ahead, and there's nothing wrong with that. But this goes far
beyond avoiding a speed trap."

On Friday, Marietje Schaake, a member of the European Parliament for the Dutch
Democratic Party in the Netherlands, wrote that she had written to the European
Commission asking, among other things, if it planned to investigate the legality of
Greyball.

To date, Greyballing has been effective. In Portland on that day in late 2014, Mr.
England, the enforcement officer, did not catch an Uber, according to locai reports.
And two weeks after Uber began dispatching drivers in Portland, the company
reached an agreement with locai officials that said that after a three-month
suspension, UberX would eventually be legally available in the city.

Follow Mike lsaac on Twitter @Mikelsaac.

https://nyti.ms/21nl5b8 l
Visions of Trumptopia
By TllE EDD'ORIAL BOARD

If there was a unifying theme to President


Trump's campaign, it was his pledge to
serve America's "forgotten men and
women," working people forsaken by the
economy and Washington. MERTO/WILLEY

In his speech Tuesday night to a joint session of


Congress, Mr. Trump presented himself as having
made an aggressive start at championing the cause of
working people, and promised a new era of rising
wages, bustling factories and coal mines, sparkling air
and water, and cheaper and better health care, ali
behind a "great great wall." He told a few whoppers,
but largely kept his eyes riveted to his teleprompter
and his delivery subdued. He even opened his speech
with a long-overdue condemnation of hate "in ali of its
very ugly forms."

We heard again the same sorts of gauzy promises and


assertions of a future Edenic America, a sort of
Trumptopia, that characterized his campaign. He
didn't explain how he would get it ali done, much less
pay for any of it; indeed, it sounded at times as though
he were still running for the job, rather than
confronted with actually doing it. Across his first few
weeks in office, Mr. Trump has shown little sign of
delivering anything for working Americans beyond
whatever satisfaction they may derive from watching
him bait the Washington establishment and attack the
reality-based media.

Mr. Trump likes to describe his chaotic first month as


"promises kept." Really? Remember how he promised
during the campaign to "immediately" fix Obamacare
and deliver "great health care for a fraction of the
price"? He hasn't even put a plan on the table. On
Monday, he complained to the nation's governors that
"nobody knew" replacing Obamacare "could be so
complicated."

As in the campaign, Mr. Trump also promised Tuesday


night to accelerate economie growth with a $1 trillion
infrastructure plan. "Crumbling infrastructure," he
said, "will be replaced with new roads, bridges,
tunnels, airports and railways, gleaming across our
very, very beautiful land." Sounds great. What's the
plan? How will we pay for it? He wasn't saying. He also
renewed his promise of "massive tax relief' for the
middle class - but once again there are no details in
sight.

It is very early yet in this presidency - though it sure


doesn't feel that way - and Mr. Trump may yet keep
some of his proliferating commitments to Americans.

But the plans he has put forward so far, and the few
actions he has taken, do not bode well. He proposes to
cut the health, disability andjob-training programs
that working people, as well as the poor, rely upon. Mr.
Trump's first big initiative was a draconian
immigration ban, now mired in court challenges, that's
caused problems for businesses from Silicon Valley to
Wisconsin. Mr. Trump proudly noted Tuesday that
one of the administration's first orders froze federa!
hiring, but he seems unaware that those jobs aren't
only in Washington, they're in communities across the
nation.

Mr. Trump has successfully started a national assault


on unauthorized immigrants - and it is already
tearing families apart and disrupting businesses, and
is likely to cast billions without improving the fortunes
of the working poor. On Tuesday he dangled the
possibility of supporting some form of "merit based"
immigration reform that would make struggling
families "very very happy indeed."

Again, that last bit sounds really nice. But it's hard to
escape the conclusion that, so far, the only working
people the president has really delivered far are
members of his own family, who are using his
presidency as a brand-building opportunity, and
former campaign officials, who are cashing in as
lobbyists in Washington.

Yet Mr. Trump has certainly not forgotten America's


"forgotten men and women." The White House is
assiduously stoking their fears, grievances and
prejudices, and selling photo-ops as accomplishments
in arder to portray an undisciplined, unfocused
president as "President Action, President Impact."

Meanwhile, he and his aides have counted on the


protests of Americans outraged by his antics to create
the appearance of an activist presidency. The cable
shows are always on in the West Wing, where Stephen
Bannon loves seeing split-screen television images
with Mr. Trump meeting business executives on one
side and opposition protest rallies on the other.
Mr. Trump closed his address to Congress by recalling
the historic accomplishments of "the country's
builders and artists and inventors" and imagining
what Americans can accomplish today. It's time for the
American president to do his job as well.

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