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Impeachment DA

Trumps impeachment is imminent, but public support is crucial

The public hates engagement with Chinakills any real chance of


impeachment
Mundell 16 William A. Mundell, honorary professor at Tsinghua University, U.S. Public
Opinion Is Driving Us To Re-Fight 20th Century Wars With China, Forbes.com, October 21,
2016.CB

"When important things are addressed first, secondary issues will not be difficult to
settle"--or so goes the Chinese proverb. The laundry list of issues afflicting the U.S.-
China relationship is long and arduous, but none is more fundamental than public
opinion and the constraints it imposes on the ability of both sides to move the
relationship forward.
George Washington famously said, "With public opinion on our side, we can do
anything, without it nothing." U.S. public opinion about China has complicated roots
dating back at least to the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. But its modern
incarnation is based on a fear and a gripe. The fear is that China is destined to
overtake the U.S. economically, and in so doing reassert itself into the dominant
position it held in eight out of the last ten centuries. The gripe is that China will use
any means available to it to win the contest for jobs, and in so doing has decimated
the backbone of America, its middle class.
Putting aside the merits of these deeply ingrained feelings, their mere existence has
a hugely consequential effect on the direction of the U.S.-China relationship. We
hear constant calls for a retrenchment, a retreat from a deepening relationship in
the face of lingering disagreements when the correct policy to cure the fear and the
gripe is the exact opposite. Instead of addressing these concerns, public opinion is
creating a rationale for policies that likely will only reinforce those same opinions.
The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is taking two forms: diversification away
from exports toward a consumer economy, and a shift from domestic investment
toward international investment. Both are taking place with astonishing speed.
China has embarked on an unprecedented spending spree, rebuilding the
infrastructure not only of its near neighbors but also of nations throughout Latin
America and Africa. It has a mega-pipeline project in Russia for natural gas and has
laid plans to help refurbish Europe's aging infrastructure.
Owing in no small part to negative public opinion toward China, the United States is
being left out of this rebuilding bonanza at a time when our balance sheet can ill
afford it. Recycling China's trade surpluses to rebuild American infrastructure would
not only make a dent in our massive infrastructure deficit, and thus strengthen
America, but every investment dollar that comes to America is an investment dollar
that didn't go to another country to create soft power for China. So if the goal is to
mitigate the fear created by the rise of China, closing off America to Chinese
investment creates the opposite outcome. This is true regardless of whether China
is looking for a peaceful rise or to become the dominant leader and replace the U.S.
in that role.
For the first time in a generation, the United States has the real prospect of winning
back the jobs it lost from China. The gift that America gave to China--markets--is a
gift the Chinese are about to give back to America. With the rise of its middle class,
China is rapidly transforming itself from the world's largest factory to the world's
largest market. Today, China's middle class is equal to the entire U.S. population
and is expected to double in size in the next 5-10 years. Absent a significant
protectionist tilt, it is virtually guaranteed that China will be a bigger market for our
exports than Mexico or Canada. Moreover, because China has largely bypassed in-
person shopping in favor of online shopping, its consumer market is more accessible
to small- and mid-sized U.S. businesses.
The sober reality is that as long as it continues to be an article of faith in the U.S.
that the U.S.-China relationship is an economic zero-sum game with China's gain
being America's loss, we will run the risk of missing this opportunity. Public opinion
will hinder the adoption of more open policies that, by helping us win the current
jobs contest, could ultimately change public perception of the U.S.-China
relationship. Instead, we stay stuck in the past, like the generals hatching brilliant
strategies to win the last war that will never come again.
The forces of globalization are inexorable, impersonal and agnostic with respect to
their victims. China is now experiencing significant disruption of its own labor
force with jobs fleeing to Southeast Asia and Africa. That is the nature of free trade.
What is essential if we are to stay engaged in this system which has powered global
growth since the end of World War ll is that we not lose the opportunity to capitalize
on the new markets created by American investment simply because public opinion
is still reeling from job losses produced by the last round of globalization with China.
That would be the worst of both worlds.
To break through the prevailing narrative, American leadership is needed. We have
two candidates for president who have calculated that it's better to fan the flames
of protectionism than to lead Americans to their rightful job bounty--a bounty we
earned through our investment (and no small sacrifice) in creating the Chinese
middle class.
Instead of consigning the U.S.-China relationship to terms like "constructive
engagement" and "living with our differences," we need to raise the expectations of
what the US-China relationship can be. The rise of China does not have to mean the
decline of America. For the first time in history, two rival powers could develop
together, and the U.S.-aided development of China could be responsible for the
redevelopment of America. That may well be the best strategy to make America
great again.