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Additional Mathematics Project Work Sample by Me

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You are on page 1of 31

WORK 1/2016

NAME: EVERDEEN

IC NUMBER:

OBJECTIVE

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The aims of carrying this project work are:

II. To improve thinking skills.

III. To promote effective mathematical communication.

IV. To use the language of mathematics to express mathematical ideas precisely.

V. To provide learning environment that stimulates and enhances effective

learning.

VI. To develop positive attitude towards mathematics.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost, I would like to thank you for giving me the strength to finish

this project work. Not forgotten my parents for providing everything including support

and endorsement on finishing the work related to this project which are the most

needed for this project. They also encouraged me to complete this task so that I will

not procrastinate in doing it.

Then, I would like to thank my Additional Mathematics teachers, Puan

Wazeena and Puan Noraishah for guiding me and my friends throughout this project.

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We had some difficulties while doing the task, but she taught us patiently until we

know what to do.

Last but not least, I would to say thank you and express my highest gratitude

to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this coursework. They are my

fellow helpful friends that when we combined and discussed together while sharing

our ideas, we had this task done.

31

CONTENTS

NO CONTENT PAGES

1) OBJECTIVE 2

2) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3

3) CONTENTS 4

4) INTRODUCTION 5-6

5) PART 1 7-15

6) PART 2 16

7) PART 3 17-18

8) PART 4 19-24

9) PART 5 25-29

10) REFLECTION 30

11) BIBLIOGRAPHIES AND FIN 31-32

INTRODUCTION

Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility

and 1 indicates certainty).[2][3] The higher the probability of an event, the more certain

we are that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased)

coin. Since the coin is unbiased, the two outcomes ("head" and "tail") are equally

probable; the probability of "head" equals the probability of "tail." Since no other

outcome is possible, the probability is 1/2 (or 50%) of either "head" or "tail". In other

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words, the probability of "head" is 1 out of 2 outcomes and the probability of "tail" is

also, 1 out of 2 outcomes, expressed as 0.5 using the above mentioned quantification

system.

probability theory (see probability axioms), which is used widely in such areas of

study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics),

artificial intelligence/machine learning, computer science, game theory, and

philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events.

Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities

of complex systems.

random phenomena. The outcome of a random event cannot be determined before it

occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is

considered to be determined by chance.

sequence of individual events, such as coin flipping or the roll of dice, is influenced by

other factors, such as friction, it will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and

predicted.[2] Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the

law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. [3] Methods of

probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial

knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth

century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales,

described in quantum mechanics.[4]

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31

PART ONE

a) History of probability.

probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de

Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Mr, a French nobleman with an interest in

gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an apparent

contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted in throwing a pair

of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet even money on the

occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly well-

established gambling rule led de Mr to believe that betting on a double six in 24

throws would be profitable, but his own calculations indicated just the opposite.

This problem and others posed by de Mr led to an exchange of letters

between Pascal and Fermat in which the fundamental principles of probability theory

were formulated for the first time. Although a few special problems on games of

chance had been solved by some Italian mathematicians in the 15th and 16th

centuries, no general theory was developed before this famous correspondence.

The Dutch scientist Christian Huygens, a teacher of Leibniz, learned of this

correspondence and shortly thereafter (in 1657) published the first book on

probability; entitled De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae, it was a treatise on problems

associated with gambling. Because of the inherent appeal of games of chance,

probability theory soon became popular, and the subject developed rapidly during the

18th century. The major contributors during this period were Jakob Bernoulli (1654-

1705) and Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754).

In 1812 Pierre de Laplace (1749-1827) introduced a host of new ideas and

mathematical techniques in his book, Thorie Analytique des Probabilits. Before

Laplace, probability theory was solely concerned with developing a mathematical

analysis of games of chance. Laplace applied probabilistic ideas to many scientific

and practical problems. The theory of errors, actuarial mathematics, and statistical

mechanics are examples of some of the important applications of probability theory

developed in the l9th century.

Like so many other branches of mathematics, the development of probability

theory has been stimulated by the variety of its applications. Conversely, each

advance in the theory has enlarged the scope of its influence. Mathematical statistics

is one important branch of applied probability; other applications occur in such widely

different fields as genetics, psychology, economics, and engineering. Many workers

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have contributed to the theory since Laplace's time; among the most important are

Chebyshev, Markov, von Mises, and Kolmogorov.

One of the difficulties in developing a mathematical theory of probability has

been to arrive at a definition of probability that is precise enough for use in

mathematics, yet comprehensive enough to be applicable to a wide range of

phenomena. The search for a widely acceptable definition took nearly three centuries

and was marked by much controversy. The matter was finally resolved in the 20th

century by treating probability theory on an axiomatic basis. In 1933 a monograph by

a Russian mathematician A. Kolmogorov outlined an axiomatic approach that forms

the basis for the modern theory. (Kolmogorov's monograph is available in English

translation as Foundations of Probability Theory, Chelsea, New York, 1950.) Since

then the ideas have been refined somewhat and probability theory is now part of a

more general discipline known as measure theory."

Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability

for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions arose much later. There are

reasons of course, for the slow development of the mathematics of probability.

Whereas games of chance provided the impetus for the mathematical study of

probability, fundamental issues are still obscured by the superstitions of gamblers.

the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that

sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such

as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances. However, in legal

contexts especially, 'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was

good evidence.

efficacy of defining odds as the ratio of favourable to unfavourable outcomes (which

implies that the probability of an event is given by the ratio of favourable outcomes to

the total number of possible outcomes). Aside from the elementary work by Cardano,

the doctrine of probabilities dates to the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat and

Blaise Pascal (1654). Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave the earliest known scientific

treatment of the subject.[14] Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and

Abraham de Moivre's Doctrine of Chances (1718) treated the subject as a branch of

mathematics.[15] See Ian Hacking's The Emergence of Probability [9] and James

Franklin's The Science of Conjecture[16] for histories of the early development of the

very concept of mathematical probability.

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Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade

on financial markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental

regulation, where it is called pathway analysis. A good example is the effect of the

perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil priceswhich

have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader

that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other

traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are neither assessed

independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance

emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace

and conflict.[21]

in biology (e.g. disease spread) as well as ecology (e.g. biological Punnett squares).

As with finance, risk assessment can be used as a statistical tool to calculate the

likelihood of undesirable events occurring and can assist with implementing protocols

to avoid encountering such circumstances.

assessments has changed society] It is important for most citizens to understand how

probability assessments are made, and how they contribute to decisions.

Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, use

reliability theory in product design to reduce the probability of failure. Failure

probability may influence a manufacturer's decisions on a product's warranty.

The cache language model and other statistical language models that are

used in natural language processing are also examples of applications of probability

theory.

situations and its importance.

Probability is the mathematical term for the likelihood that something will

occur, such as drawing an ace from a deck of cards or picking a green piece of

candy from a bag of assorted colors. You use probability in daily life to make

decisions when you don't know for sure what the outcome will be. Most of the time,

you won't perform actual probability problems, but you'll use subjective probability to

make judgment calls and determine the best course of action.

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Nearly every day you use probability to plan around the weather.

Meteorologists can't predict exactly what the weather will be, so they use tools and

instruments to determine the likelihood that it will rain, snow or hail. For example, if

there's a 60-percent chance of rain, then the weather conditions are such that 60 out

of 100 days with similar conditions, it has rained. You may decide to wear closed-toed

shoes rather than sandals or take an umbrella to work. Meteorologists also examine

historical data bases to guesstimate high and low temperatures and probable weather

patterns for that day or week.

Athletes and coaches use probability to determine the best sports strategies

for games and competitions. A baseball coach evaluates a player's batting average

when placing him in the lineup. For example, a player with a 200 batting average

means he's gotten a base hit two out of every 10 at bats. A player with a 400 batting

average is even more likely to get a hit -- four base hits out of every 10 at bats. Or, if

a high-school football kicker makes nine out of 15 field goal attempts from over 40

yards during the season, he has a 60 percent chance of scoring on his next field goal

attempt from that distance.

31

which plans are best for you or your family and what deductible amounts you need.

For example, when choosing a car insurance policy, you use probability to determine

how likely it is that you'll need to file a claim. For example, if 12 out of every 100

drivers -- or 12 percent of drivers -- in your community have hit a deer over the past

year, you'll likely want to consider comprehensive -- not just liability -- insurance on

your car. You might also consider a lower deductible if average car repairs after a

deer-related incident run $2,800 and you don't have out-of-pocket funds to cover

those expenses.

You use probability when you play board, card or video games that involve luck

or chance. You must weigh the odds of getting the cards you need in poker or the

secret weapons you need in a video game. The likelihood of getting those cards or

tokens will determine how much risk you're willing to take. For example, the odds are

46.3-to-1 that you'll get three of a kind in your poker hand -- approximately a 2-

percent chance -- according to Wolfram Math World. But, the odds are approximately

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1.4-to-1 or about 42 percent that you'll get one pair. Probability helps you assess

what's at stake and determine how you want to play the game.

31

31

d) Categories of Probability (Theoretical vs

Empirical).

Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur,

divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability of events that

come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.

Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based

on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a

large number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.

31

31

PART TWO

A= {1,2,3,4,5,6}

b) The possible outcomes when two dices are tossed simultaneously:

Dice 1&2 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (4,5) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

n(s)= {(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5)

(2,6) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5)

31

PART THREE

simultaneously:

turned-up faces (x) Outcomes Probability, P(x)

2 (1,1) 1

36

3 (2,1) (1,2) 2

36

4 (1,3) (3,1) (2,2) 3

36

5 (1,4) (4,1) (3,2) (2,3) 4

36

6 (1,5) (5,1) (4,2) (2,4) (3,3) 5

36

7 (1,6) (6,1) (4,3) (3,4) (2,5) 6

36

(5,2)

8 (2,6) (6,2) (3,5) (5,3) (4,4) 5

36

9 (5,4) (4,5) (3,6) (6,3) 4

36

10 (6,4) (5,5) (4,6) 3

36

11 (6,5) (5,6) 2

36

12 (6,6) 1

36

(x): 77 : 36 P(x): 1

Table 1

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b) Based on Table 1, the possible outcomes and their corresponding probability of

the following events are:

Event 1

A= {The two numbers are the same}

A= {(1,1) (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6,6)}

6 1

P(A)= 36 = 6

Event 2

B= {The product of the two numbers is greater than 25}

B= {(6,5) (5,6) (6,6)}

3 1

P(A)= 36 = 12

Event 3

C= {Both are prime numbers or the difference between two numbers is even}

C= {(1,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,2) (2,5) (5,2) (3,5) (5,3) (6,4) (5,5) (4,6) (2,6) (6,2) (1,5)

(5,1) (4,2) (2,4) (3,3) (1,3) (3,1)}

22 11

P(A)= 36 = 18

Event 4

D= {The sum of two numbers are odd and both numbers are perfect squares}

D= {(1,4) (4,1)}

2 1

P(A)= 36 = 18

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PART FOUR

a) Conduct an activity:

Our group consist of five students in a group. We need to toss 50 times of two

dices. Each of us decided to make a toss of two dices (ten times per person). The

result from the activity is recorded on the table below.

Students/ S1 S2 S3 S4 S5

Times

1 5,1 3,4 6,6 2,6 1,5

2 6,4 6,5 1,1 3,1 1,6

3 2,5 4,2 2,6 1,4 3,5

4 2,2 1,3 2,4 1,1 2,3

5 6,6 3,2 4,3 6,1 5,6

6 1,1 6,6 4,6 6,4 1,2

7 1,4 5,3 4,1 3,3 4,5

8 6,5 1,2 4,4 6,5 2,2

9 2,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 1,1

10 12 3,6 2,1 1,2 6,6

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The outcomes (data for 50 times of dices were thrown):

x2 2

Sum of the Frequency f(x) f x

two numbers (f)

(x)

2 4 8 4 16

3 5 15 9 45

4 4 16 16 64

5 5 25 25 125

6 5 30 36 180

7 5 35 49 245

8 6 48 64 384

9 2 18 81 162

10 4 40 100 400

11 5 55 121 605

12 5 60 144 720

: 50 :350 :649 :2946

Table 2

fx

I. Mean; f

350

x =

50

x =7

2

f x ( )2

II. Variance; x

f

2946

( 7 ) 2

50

= 9.92

III. Standard deviation; = var

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= 9.9 2

=3.149

b) Predict the value of the mean if the number of tosses is increased to 100

times:

x =7 .5

c) Test for the prediction in b) for the number of toss until 100 times by

continuing activity in a). The result from the activity is recorded in the table

below.

Students/ S1 S2 S3 S4 S5

Times

1 5,1 3,4 6,6 2,6 1,5

2 6,4 6,5 1,1 3,1 1,6

3 2,5 4,2 2,6 1,4 3,5

4 2,2 1,3 2,4 1,1 2,3

5 6,6 3,2 4,3 6,1 5,6

6 1,1 6,6 4,6 6,4 1,2

7 1,4 5,3 4,1 3,3 4,5

8 6,5 1,2 4,4 6,5 2,2

9 2,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 1,1

10 1,2 3,6 2,1 1,2 6,6

11 2,6 5,1 3,5 4,2 2,4

12 3,1 6,4 2,3 5,6 2,6

13 1,4 1,1 5,6 3,4 1,1

14 1,1 2,2 1,2 1,3 6,6

15 6,1 6,6 1,5 3,2 4,3

16 6,4 2,5 6,1 2,4 4,6

17 3,3 1,4 4,5 5,3 4,1

18 6,5 2,6 2,2 4,6 5,6

19 6,6 6,5 6,6 3,6 4,4

20 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2 2,1

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The outcomes (new data for 100 times of dices were thrown):

x2 2

Sum of the Frequency f(x) f x

two numbers (f)

(x)

2 8 16 4 32

3 10 30 9 90

4 8 32 16 128

5 10 50 25 250

6 11 66 36 396

7 10 70 49 490

8 12 96 64 768

9 4 36 81 324

10 8 80 100 800

11 10 110 121 1210

12 9 108 144 1296

: 100 :694 :649 :5784

Table 3

fx

i. Mean; f

694

x =

100

x =6.94

2

f x ( )2 5784 ( 2

ii. Variance; x = 6.94 ) =9.6764

f 100

9 6764

= 3.1107

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Thus, from the activity above, my prediction is wrong and not proven because the

mean for 50 times of dices tossed is 7 while the mean for 100 times is 6.94 but I

predicted 7.5 in b).

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PART FIVE

This part of question relates with Part Three, question in a). The questions for Part

Five is based on Table 1 (page 17).

both turned-up faces Probability, P(x) x2 x 2 P(x)

(x)

2 1 4 1

36 9

3 2 9 1

36 2

4 3 16 4

36 3

5 4 25 25

36 9

6 5 36 5

36

7 6 49 49

36 6

8 5 63 80

36 9

9 4 81 9

36

10 3 100 25

36 3

11 2 121 121

36 8

12 1 144 4

36

(x): 77 P(x): 1 2

x :649 :63.24

Table 1

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a) Based on Table 1,

Mean; xP ( x )

(2 361 )+(3 362 )+( 4 363 )+(5 164 )+(6 365 )+(7 366 )+( 8 365 )+( 9 364 )+(10 363 )+(11 362

=7

Variance; x 2 P ( x ) ( man )2

(4 361 )+(9 362 )+(16 363 )+(25 164 )+(36 365 )+(49 366 )+(64 365 )+( 81 364 )+(100 363 )+

2

= ( 63.24 ) ( 7 )

= 14.24

= 14.2 4

=3.7736

b) The mean in Part 4 and 5 is almost the same. Even though the formula used to

find both means is different but the answers are almost the same. To find the

fx

mean in Part 4, I need to use Additional Mathematics formula, f and the

mean is 7.

In the meantime, to find the mean in Part 5, I need to use the formula given,

xP ( x ) and yet the answer is same in Part 4, 7. In Part 5, in order to find

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the mean, firstly I need to find the probability of outcomes (refers Table 1, page

17 and 25). Then, I can calculate for the answer by using the formula given.

In a nutshell, from what I can conclude and relate with Empirical Probability is I

can estimate the event will happen based on how often the event occurs after

collecting data or running an experiment (in a large number of trials). This can

be proven when I am conducting the activity in Part 3 and Part 4.

For Theoretical Probability, is about finding the probability of events that come

from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes. This can be proven

when I am calculating the probability after conducting the activity in Part 3 and

Part 4.

c)

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FURTHER EXPLORATION

describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times.

According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials

should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials

are performed.

The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the

averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a

single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable

percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will

eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember

that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of

observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of

observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will

immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).

31

An illustration of the law of large numbers using a particular run of rolls of a

single die. As the number of rolls in this run increases, the average of the values of all

the results approaches 3.5. While different runs would show a different shape over a

small number of throws (at the left), over a large number of rolls (to the right) they

would be extremely similar.

For example, a single roll of a fair, six-sided die produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3,

4, 5, or 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a single die

roll is

According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of six-sided dice are

rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be

close to 3.5, with the precision increasing as more dice are rolled.

It follows from the law of large numbers that the empirical probability of

success in a series of Bernoulli trials will converge to the theoretical probability. For a

Bernoulli random variable, the expected value is the theoretical probability of

success, and the average of n such variables (assuming they are independent and

identically distributed) is precisely the relative frequency.

For example, a fair coin toss is a Bernoulli trial. When a fair coin is flipped

once, the theoretical probability that the outcome will be heads is equal to 1/2.

Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a "large"

number of coin flips "should be" roughly 1/2. In particular, the proportion of heads

after n flips will almost surely converge to 1/2 as n approaches infinity.

Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches 1/2, almost surely the

absolute difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as the number

of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute difference is a small

number, approaches zero as the number of flips becomes large. Also, almost surely

the ratio of the absolute difference to the number of flips will approach zero.

Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the number

of flips, as the number of flips grows.

REFLECTION

While I conducting this project, a lot of information that I found. I have learnt

how probability appear in our daily life. Apart from that, this project encourages the

31

student to work together and share their knowledges. It encourages students to

gather information from the internet, improve thinking skills and promote effective

mathematical communication. Not only that, I had learned some moral values that I

practice.

This project had taught me to be responsible on the works that are given to

me to be completed. This project also had made me feel more confidence to do works

and not to give easily when we could not find the solution for the question. I also

learned to be more discipline on time, which I was given about a month to complete

this project and pass up to my teacher just in time.

I also enjoy doing this project when I spend my time with friends to complete

this project and it had tightened our friendship. Last but not least, I proposed this

project should be continued because it brings a lot of moral value to the student and

also test the students understanding in Additional Mathematics.

In conclusion, probability is also a daily life necessity. Without it, mans

creativity will be limited. Therefore, we should be thankful of the people who

contribute in the idea of probability.

BIBLIOGRAPHIES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory

http://global.britannica.com/topic/probability-theory

http://www.math.uiuc.edu/~r-ash/BPT.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

http://homepages.wmich.edu/~mackey/Teaching/145/probHist.html

31

http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.prob.world.html

https://www.google.com.my/search?

hl=en&biw=1366&bih=651&site=webhp&q=importance+of+probability+in+daily+life&s

a=X&ved=0ahUKEwjhlZ3t3ZzNAhWmJqYKHTx3CeUQ1QIIbCgB

http://world.mathigon.org/Probability

http://www.malaysia-students.com/2012/05/additional-mathematics-add-math-

project.html

https://www.google.com.my/search?

q=importance+of+probability+in+daily+life&safe=active&hl=en&biw=1366&bih=651&si

te=webhp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjdm_70sLDNAhWDp5QKH

RPQAuw4ChD8BQgIKAE&safe=active

http://www.ehow.com/list_7719506_real-life-probability-examples.html

http://www.google.com.my/url?

sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwihvoHu

uLDNAhULmpQKHWO4BnMQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slideshare.net

%2Fimmanuel66%2Fimmanuel&psig=AFQjCNHOGwMTrM6tR8YYv0i0jbY40TuIBQ&u

st=1466300206717262

http://www.mathworksheetscenter.com/mathtips/calculatingprobability.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGXdd7Htf2Q

https://www.coursera.org/learn/principles-of-computing-1/lecture/rNtn2/the-

importance-of-probability

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

http://www.corestandards.org/Math/Content/HSS/introduction/

http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/math/algebra/apr5/theoprop.htm

31

FIN

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