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WORK 1/2016






The aims of carrying this project work are:

I. To adapt and apply a variety of problem-solving strategies to solve problems.

II. To improve thinking skills.
III. To promote effective mathematical communication.
IV. To use the language of mathematics to express mathematical ideas precisely.
V. To provide learning environment that stimulates and enhances effective

VI. To develop positive attitude towards mathematics.


First and foremost, I would like to thank you for giving me the strength to finish
this project work. Not forgotten my parents for providing everything including support
and endorsement on finishing the work related to this project which are the most
needed for this project. They also encouraged me to complete this task so that I will
not procrastinate in doing it.
Then, I would like to thank my Additional Mathematics teachers, Puan
Wazeena and Puan Noraishah for guiding me and my friends throughout this project.
We had some difficulties while doing the task, but she taught us patiently until we
know what to do.
Last but not least, I would to say thank you and express my highest gratitude
to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this coursework. They are my
fellow helpful friends that when we combined and discussed together while sharing
our ideas, we had this task done.



5) PART 1 7-15
6) PART 2 16
7) PART 3 17-18
8) PART 4 19-24
9) PART 5 25-29


Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.[1]

Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility
and 1 indicates certainty).[2][3] The higher the probability of an event, the more certain
we are that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased)
coin. Since the coin is unbiased, the two outcomes ("head" and "tail") are equally
probable; the probability of "head" equals the probability of "tail." Since no other
outcome is possible, the probability is 1/2 (or 50%) of either "head" or "tail". In other
words, the probability of "head" is 1 out of 2 outcomes and the probability of "tail" is
also, 1 out of 2 outcomes, expressed as 0.5 using the above mentioned quantification

These concepts have been given an axiomatic mathematical formalization in

probability theory (see probability axioms), which is used widely in such areas of
study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics),
artificial intelligence/machine learning, computer science, game theory, and
philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events.
Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities
of complex systems.

Probability theory, a branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of

random phenomena. The outcome of a random event cannot be determined before it
occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is
considered to be determined by chance.

It is not possible to predict precisely results of random events. [1] However, if a

sequence of individual events, such as coin flipping or the roll of dice, is influenced by
other factors, such as friction, it will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and
predicted.[2] Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the
law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many

human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. [3] Methods of
probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial
knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth
century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales,
described in quantum mechanics.[4]


a) History of probability.

"A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of

probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de
Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Mr, a French nobleman with an interest in
gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an apparent
contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted in throwing a pair
of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet even money on the
occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly well-
established gambling rule led de Mr to believe that betting on a double six in 24
throws would be profitable, but his own calculations indicated just the opposite.
This problem and others posed by de Mr led to an exchange of letters
between Pascal and Fermat in which the fundamental principles of probability theory
were formulated for the first time. Although a few special problems on games of
chance had been solved by some Italian mathematicians in the 15th and 16th
centuries, no general theory was developed before this famous correspondence.
The Dutch scientist Christian Huygens, a teacher of Leibniz, learned of this
correspondence and shortly thereafter (in 1657) published the first book on
probability; entitled De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae, it was a treatise on problems
associated with gambling. Because of the inherent appeal of games of chance,
probability theory soon became popular, and the subject developed rapidly during the
18th century. The major contributors during this period were Jakob Bernoulli (1654-
1705) and Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754).
In 1812 Pierre de Laplace (1749-1827) introduced a host of new ideas and
mathematical techniques in his book, Thorie Analytique des Probabilits. Before
Laplace, probability theory was solely concerned with developing a mathematical
analysis of games of chance. Laplace applied probabilistic ideas to many scientific
and practical problems. The theory of errors, actuarial mathematics, and statistical
mechanics are examples of some of the important applications of probability theory
developed in the l9th century.
Like so many other branches of mathematics, the development of probability
theory has been stimulated by the variety of its applications. Conversely, each
advance in the theory has enlarged the scope of its influence. Mathematical statistics
is one important branch of applied probability; other applications occur in such widely
different fields as genetics, psychology, economics, and engineering. Many workers
have contributed to the theory since Laplace's time; among the most important are
Chebyshev, Markov, von Mises, and Kolmogorov.
One of the difficulties in developing a mathematical theory of probability has
been to arrive at a definition of probability that is precise enough for use in
mathematics, yet comprehensive enough to be applicable to a wide range of
phenomena. The search for a widely acceptable definition took nearly three centuries
and was marked by much controversy. The matter was finally resolved in the 20th
century by treating probability theory on an axiomatic basis. In 1933 a monograph by
a Russian mathematician A. Kolmogorov outlined an axiomatic approach that forms
the basis for the modern theory. (Kolmogorov's monograph is available in English
translation as Foundations of Probability Theory, Chelsea, New York, 1950.) Since
then the ideas have been refined somewhat and probability theory is now part of a
more general discipline known as measure theory."

The scientific study of probability is a modern development of mathematics.

Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability
for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions arose much later. There are
reasons of course, for the slow development of the mathematics of probability.
Whereas games of chance provided the impetus for the mathematical study of
probability, fundamental issues are still obscured by the superstitions of gamblers.

According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the seventeenth century,

the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that
sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such
as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances. However, in legal
contexts especially, 'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was
good evidence.

The sixteenth century Italian polymath Gerolamo Cardano demonstrated the

efficacy of defining odds as the ratio of favourable to unfavourable outcomes (which
implies that the probability of an event is given by the ratio of favourable outcomes to
the total number of possible outcomes). Aside from the elementary work by Cardano,
the doctrine of probabilities dates to the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat and
Blaise Pascal (1654). Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave the earliest known scientific
treatment of the subject.[14] Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and
Abraham de Moivre's Doctrine of Chances (1718) treated the subject as a branch of
mathematics.[15] See Ian Hacking's The Emergence of Probability [9] and James
Franklin's The Science of Conjecture[16] for histories of the early development of the
very concept of mathematical probability.

b) Example of probability theory applications.

Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade
on financial markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental
regulation, where it is called pathway analysis. A good example is the effect of the
perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil priceswhich
have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader
that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other
traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are neither assessed
independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance
emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace
and conflict.[21]

In addition to financial assessment, probability can be used to analyze trends

in biology (e.g. disease spread) as well as ecology (e.g. biological Punnett squares).
As with finance, risk assessment can be used as a statistical tool to calculate the
likelihood of undesirable events occurring and can assist with implementing protocols
to avoid encountering such circumstances.

The discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability

assessments has changed society] It is important for most citizens to understand how
probability assessments are made, and how they contribute to decisions.

Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability.

Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, use
reliability theory in product design to reduce the probability of failure. Failure
probability may influence a manufacturer's decisions on a product's warranty.

The cache language model and other statistical language models that are
used in natural language processing are also examples of applications of probability

c) How probability is being applied in real life

situations and its importance.
Probability is the mathematical term for the likelihood that something will
occur, such as drawing an ace from a deck of cards or picking a green piece of
candy from a bag of assorted colors. You use probability in daily life to make
decisions when you don't know for sure what the outcome will be. Most of the time,
you won't perform actual probability problems, but you'll use subjective probability to
make judgment calls and determine the best course of action.

Nearly every day you use probability to plan around the weather.
Meteorologists can't predict exactly what the weather will be, so they use tools and
instruments to determine the likelihood that it will rain, snow or hail. For example, if
there's a 60-percent chance of rain, then the weather conditions are such that 60 out
of 100 days with similar conditions, it has rained. You may decide to wear closed-toed
shoes rather than sandals or take an umbrella to work. Meteorologists also examine
historical data bases to guesstimate high and low temperatures and probable weather
patterns for that day or week.

Athletes and coaches use probability to determine the best sports strategies
for games and competitions. A baseball coach evaluates a player's batting average
when placing him in the lineup. For example, a player with a 200 batting average
means he's gotten a base hit two out of every 10 at bats. A player with a 400 batting
average is even more likely to get a hit -- four base hits out of every 10 at bats. Or, if
a high-school football kicker makes nine out of 15 field goal attempts from over 40
yards during the season, he has a 60 percent chance of scoring on his next field goal
attempt from that distance.

The equation is: 9 / 15 = 0.60 or 60 percent


Probability plays an important role in analyzing insurance policies to determine

which plans are best for you or your family and what deductible amounts you need.
For example, when choosing a car insurance policy, you use probability to determine
how likely it is that you'll need to file a claim. For example, if 12 out of every 100
drivers -- or 12 percent of drivers -- in your community have hit a deer over the past
year, you'll likely want to consider comprehensive -- not just liability -- insurance on
your car. You might also consider a lower deductible if average car repairs after a
deer-related incident run $2,800 and you don't have out-of-pocket funds to cover
those expenses.

You use probability when you play board, card or video games that involve luck
or chance. You must weigh the odds of getting the cards you need in poker or the
secret weapons you need in a video game. The likelihood of getting those cards or
tokens will determine how much risk you're willing to take. For example, the odds are
46.3-to-1 that you'll get three of a kind in your poker hand -- approximately a 2-
percent chance -- according to Wolfram Math World. But, the odds are approximately
1.4-to-1 or about 42 percent that you'll get one pair. Probability helps you assess
what's at stake and determine how you want to play the game.

More Examples of Applications of Probability Theory.

d) Categories of Probability (Theoretical vs
Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur,
divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability of events that
come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.

Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based
on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a
large number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.


a) The possible outcomes when the dice is tossed once:

A= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) The possible outcomes when two dices are tossed simultaneously:

Dice 1&2 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (4,5) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

n(s)= {(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5)

(2,6) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5)

(5,6) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)} =36



a) Possible outcomes and corresponding possibility of two dices are tossed


Sum of the dots on both Possible

turned-up faces (x) Outcomes Probability, P(x)

2 (1,1) 1
3 (2,1) (1,2) 2
4 (1,3) (3,1) (2,2) 3
5 (1,4) (4,1) (3,2) (2,3) 4
6 (1,5) (5,1) (4,2) (2,4) (3,3) 5
7 (1,6) (6,1) (4,3) (3,4) (2,5) 6
8 (2,6) (6,2) (3,5) (5,3) (4,4) 5
9 (5,4) (4,5) (3,6) (6,3) 4
10 (6,4) (5,5) (4,6) 3
11 (6,5) (5,6) 2
12 (6,6) 1
(x): 77 : 36 P(x): 1
Table 1
b) Based on Table 1, the possible outcomes and their corresponding probability of
the following events are:
Event 1
A= {The two numbers are the same}
A= {(1,1) (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6,6)}
6 1
P(A)= 36 = 6

Event 2
B= {The product of the two numbers is greater than 25}
B= {(6,5) (5,6) (6,6)}
3 1
P(A)= 36 = 12

Event 3
C= {Both are prime numbers or the difference between two numbers is even}
C= {(1,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,2) (2,5) (5,2) (3,5) (5,3) (6,4) (5,5) (4,6) (2,6) (6,2) (1,5)
(5,1) (4,2) (2,4) (3,3) (1,3) (3,1)}
22 11
P(A)= 36 = 18

Event 4
D= {The sum of two numbers are odd and both numbers are perfect squares}
D= {(1,4) (4,1)}
2 1
P(A)= 36 = 18


a) Conduct an activity:

Our group consist of five students in a group. We need to toss 50 times of two
dices. Each of us decided to make a toss of two dices (ten times per person). The
result from the activity is recorded on the table below.

Students/ S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
1 5,1 3,4 6,6 2,6 1,5
2 6,4 6,5 1,1 3,1 1,6
3 2,5 4,2 2,6 1,4 3,5
4 2,2 1,3 2,4 1,1 2,3
5 6,6 3,2 4,3 6,1 5,6
6 1,1 6,6 4,6 6,4 1,2
7 1,4 5,3 4,1 3,3 4,5
8 6,5 1,2 4,4 6,5 2,2
9 2,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 1,1
10 12 3,6 2,1 1,2 6,6
The outcomes (data for 50 times of dices were thrown):

x2 2
Sum of the Frequency f(x) f x
two numbers (f)
2 4 8 4 16
3 5 15 9 45
4 4 16 16 64
5 5 25 25 125
6 5 30 36 180
7 5 35 49 245
8 6 48 64 384
9 2 18 81 162
10 4 40 100 400
11 5 55 121 605
12 5 60 144 720
: 50 :350 :649 :2946
Table 2

I. Mean; f

x =

x =7

f x ( )2
II. Variance; x
( 7 ) 2

= 9.92
III. Standard deviation; = var
= 9.9 2


b) Predict the value of the mean if the number of tosses is increased to 100

x =7 .5
c) Test for the prediction in b) for the number of toss until 100 times by
continuing activity in a). The result from the activity is recorded in the table

Students/ S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
1 5,1 3,4 6,6 2,6 1,5
2 6,4 6,5 1,1 3,1 1,6
3 2,5 4,2 2,6 1,4 3,5
4 2,2 1,3 2,4 1,1 2,3
5 6,6 3,2 4,3 6,1 5,6
6 1,1 6,6 4,6 6,4 1,2
7 1,4 5,3 4,1 3,3 4,5
8 6,5 1,2 4,4 6,5 2,2
9 2,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 1,1
10 1,2 3,6 2,1 1,2 6,6
11 2,6 5,1 3,5 4,2 2,4
12 3,1 6,4 2,3 5,6 2,6
13 1,4 1,1 5,6 3,4 1,1
14 1,1 2,2 1,2 1,3 6,6
15 6,1 6,6 1,5 3,2 4,3
16 6,4 2,5 6,1 2,4 4,6
17 3,3 1,4 4,5 5,3 4,1
18 6,5 2,6 2,2 4,6 5,6
19 6,6 6,5 6,6 3,6 4,4
20 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2 2,1
The outcomes (new data for 100 times of dices were thrown):

x2 2
Sum of the Frequency f(x) f x
two numbers (f)
2 8 16 4 32
3 10 30 9 90
4 8 32 16 128
5 10 50 25 250
6 11 66 36 396
7 10 70 49 490
8 12 96 64 768
9 4 36 81 324
10 8 80 100 800
11 10 110 121 1210
12 9 108 144 1296
: 100 :694 :649 :5784
Table 3

i. Mean; f

x =

x =6.94

f x ( )2 5784 ( 2
ii. Variance; x = 6.94 ) =9.6764
f 100

iii. Standard deviation; = var

9 6764

= 3.1107

Thus, from the activity above, my prediction is wrong and not proven because the
mean for 50 times of dices tossed is 7 while the mean for 100 times is 6.94 but I
predicted 7.5 in b).


This part of question relates with Part Three, question in a). The questions for Part
Five is based on Table 1 (page 17).

Sum of the dots on

both turned-up faces Probability, P(x) x2 x 2 P(x)
2 1 4 1
36 9
3 2 9 1
36 2
4 3 16 4
36 3
5 4 25 25
36 9
6 5 36 5
7 6 49 49
36 6
8 5 63 80
36 9
9 4 81 9
10 3 100 25
36 3
11 2 121 121
36 8
12 1 144 4
(x): 77 P(x): 1 2
x :649 :63.24
Table 1
a) Based on Table 1,

Mean; xP ( x )

(2 361 )+(3 362 )+( 4 363 )+(5 164 )+(6 365 )+(7 366 )+( 8 365 )+( 9 364 )+(10 363 )+(11 362

Variance; x 2 P ( x ) ( man )2

(4 361 )+(9 362 )+(16 363 )+(25 164 )+(36 365 )+(49 366 )+(64 365 )+( 81 364 )+(100 363 )+

= ( 63.24 ) ( 7 )
= 14.24

Standard deviation; = var

= 14.2 4

b) The mean in Part 4 and 5 is almost the same. Even though the formula used to
find both means is different but the answers are almost the same. To find the
mean in Part 4, I need to use Additional Mathematics formula, f and the

mean is 7.

In the meantime, to find the mean in Part 5, I need to use the formula given,
xP ( x ) and yet the answer is same in Part 4, 7. In Part 5, in order to find
the mean, firstly I need to find the probability of outcomes (refers Table 1, page
17 and 25). Then, I can calculate for the answer by using the formula given.

In a nutshell, from what I can conclude and relate with Empirical Probability is I
can estimate the event will happen based on how often the event occurs after
collecting data or running an experiment (in a large number of trials). This can
be proven when I am conducting the activity in Part 3 and Part 4.

For Theoretical Probability, is about finding the probability of events that come
from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes. This can be proven
when I am calculating the probability after conducting the activity in Part 3 and
Part 4.




In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that

describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times.
According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials
should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials
are performed.

The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the
averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a
single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable
percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will
eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember
that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of
observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of
observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will
immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).
An illustration of the law of large numbers using a particular run of rolls of a
single die. As the number of rolls in this run increases, the average of the values of all
the results approaches 3.5. While different runs would show a different shape over a
small number of throws (at the left), over a large number of rolls (to the right) they
would be extremely similar.

For example, a single roll of a fair, six-sided die produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, or 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a single die
roll is

According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of six-sided dice are
rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be
close to 3.5, with the precision increasing as more dice are rolled.

It follows from the law of large numbers that the empirical probability of
success in a series of Bernoulli trials will converge to the theoretical probability. For a
Bernoulli random variable, the expected value is the theoretical probability of
success, and the average of n such variables (assuming they are independent and
identically distributed) is precisely the relative frequency.

For example, a fair coin toss is a Bernoulli trial. When a fair coin is flipped
once, the theoretical probability that the outcome will be heads is equal to 1/2.
Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a "large"
number of coin flips "should be" roughly 1/2. In particular, the proportion of heads
after n flips will almost surely converge to 1/2 as n approaches infinity.

Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches 1/2, almost surely the
absolute difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as the number
of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute difference is a small
number, approaches zero as the number of flips becomes large. Also, almost surely
the ratio of the absolute difference to the number of flips will approach zero.
Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the number
of flips, as the number of flips grows.


While I conducting this project, a lot of information that I found. I have learnt
how probability appear in our daily life. Apart from that, this project encourages the
student to work together and share their knowledges. It encourages students to
gather information from the internet, improve thinking skills and promote effective
mathematical communication. Not only that, I had learned some moral values that I
This project had taught me to be responsible on the works that are given to
me to be completed. This project also had made me feel more confidence to do works
and not to give easily when we could not find the solution for the question. I also
learned to be more discipline on time, which I was given about a month to complete
this project and pass up to my teacher just in time.
I also enjoy doing this project when I spend my time with friends to complete
this project and it had tightened our friendship. Last but not least, I proposed this
project should be continued because it brings a lot of moral value to the student and
also test the students understanding in Additional Mathematics.
In conclusion, probability is also a daily life necessity. Without it, mans
creativity will be limited. Therefore, we should be thankful of the people who
contribute in the idea of probability.



Project is done by EVERDEEN copyright 2016 .