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Date: March 1, 2017

To: Interested Parties

From: Andrew Myers and Lauren Spangler

Adam Laxalt Largely Undefined,

GOP Generally On Shaky Ground, Fueled by Trump

As Republican Governor Brian Sandoval completes his term in office, Democrats in Nevada have
a clear opportunity to regain the Governors mansion come 2018, particularly given Republican
heir-apparent Adam Laxalts weak connection with voters today and a toxic political environment
brewing for the GOP1. Buoying this negative environment is President Trump who earns a net-
negative disapproval rating overall among a majority of voters. More compelling, though, is that a
plurality 44 percent say he is doing a poor job, the worst rating they could offer and a
percentage more sizeable than the 42 percent who rate his job as excellent or good. Make no
mistake what that intensity means, progressives are primed and ready to vote en masse, as
evidenced by the surge in voter turnout in Delawares recent special state senate election and the
massive double-digit victory earned by the Democrat despite the district being a narrow 2-point
race in 2014. Today, that same edge is beginning to emerge for Democrats in Nevada as a generic
state legislative Democrat has the edge over the Republican, 45 to 38 percent, nearly the same
edge they had in 2007, a year before Democrats recaptured control of the state senate.

Findings from our recent focus groups2 demonstrate that Laxalt has little top-of-mind connection
among this electorate, yet among those who do know him
impressions are generally poor. Some view him as a typical
politician and insider, openly expressing that he is the status
quo candidate as he is the
Republican establishments
pick. Others who recognize
him resent his political
posturing and allegiance
with President Trump, while
some even mention that he
differed at key times with Governor Sandoval.

These findings are based on a survey of 800 likely November 2018 voters in Nevada. Calling took place from February 6-9, 2017,
and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research | Strategic Services staff. Thirty percent
of respondents were reached on a cell phone, and the data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total
expected vote. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 3.5 percent. The margin
of error for subgroups is greater and varies. The sample was composed of 36 percent registered Democrats, 36 percent registered
Republicans, and 28 percent of unaffiliated voters.
Myers Research | Strategic Services conducted four focus groups on January 30-31, 2017 among voters in Clark and Washoe
Counties. Two groups were conducted in Clark County among voters who self-identified as independents or weak partisans, and
two groups were conducted in Washoe County among voters who self-reported that they voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and
Donald Trump in 2016.

1510 6th St. NW, Unit 1 | Washington, DC 20001

ph. 202.733.3688 |
Laxalt Undefined 2

Our survey reveals that Laxalt is identified by just 56 percent of likely 2018 voters overall, but far
fewer, just 38 percent, are able to give him a substantive, or non-neutral rating on our 0 to 100
personal feeling thermometer scale3. Among those who can rate him, Laxalt receives a neutral
50-degrees with warm,
favorable, ratings equal to cool,
unfavorable, ones.

The scant positive reviews of

Laxalt are unsurprisingly fueled
by his Republican base and
those in more rural counties.
Independents virtually mirror
the trend on the topline, not a
good sign at all, and his
standing dips further among
those who are registered as
unaffiliated with either major
party. Among them, Laxalt
earns a cold 46-degree mean
personal feeling thermometer,
with just 15 percent giving him warm ratings and 21 percent rating him coolly. Importantly, in both
Clark and Washoe Counties Laxalts standing falls below the 50-degree neutral point today, and
foreboding bad news ahead, in Washoe, where Laxalt is best identified, his cool ratings outweigh
his warm ones by a 7-point margin today.

Bottom line, as next years Governors contest begins to take shape Laxalt lacks definition and
earns mixed reviews from the few who have an opinion about him. While he is viewed as part of
the Republican establishment, he is also seen as locking horns with a popular Governor on some
issues, which may have lasting damage. Further, his lockstep allegiance with President Trump
will most likely put him at a disadvantage from the start and will only embolden progressive voters,
mainly Democrats and Hispanics, who are primed to vote and for change.

Myers Research | Strategic Services uses a mean thermometer scale of zero to one hundred to measure personal standing. Zero
represents a very cool, negative feeling, one hundred represents a very warm, favorable feeling, and 50 means neither warm nor
cool. The mean thermometer score is derived among respondents who can rate individuals or organizations.

1510 6th St. NW, Unit 1 | Washington, DC 20001

ph. 202.733.3688 |

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