Remote Sens. 2015, 7, 13782-13806; doi:10.

3390/rs71013782
OPEN ACCESS

remote sensing
ISSN 2072-4292
www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing
Article

Spatial Prediction of Coastal Bathymetry Based on

Multispectral Satellite Imagery and Multibeam Data
Xavier Monteys 1,*, Paul Harris 2, Silvia Caloca 3 and Conor Cahalane 4

1
Geological Survey of Ireland, Beggars Bush, Haddington Road, Dublin 4 D04 K7X4, Ireland
2
Sustainable Soil and Grassland Systems, Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon
EX20 2SB, UK; E-Mail: paul.harris@rothamsted.ac.uk
3
Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Maynooth University, Maynooth,
Co. Kildare, Leinster W23 F2H6, Ireland; E-Mail: silvia.caloca@gsi.ie
4
National Centre for Geocomputation, Iontas, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Co. Kildare,
Leinster W23 F2H6, Ireland; E-Mail: conor.cahalane@nuim.ie

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: xavier.monteys@gsi.ie;

Tel.: +353-1-6782-807.

Academic Editors: Xiaofeng Li, Magaly Koch and Prasad S. Thenkabail

Received: 20 August 2015 / Accepted: 13 October 2015 / Published: 21 October 2015

Abstract: The coastal shallow water zone can be a challenging and costly environment in
which to acquire bathymetry and other oceanographic data using traditional survey methods.
Much of the coastal shallow water zone worldwide remains unmapped using recent
techniques and is, therefore, poorly understood. Optical satellite imagery is proving to be a
useful tool in predicting water depth in coastal zones, particularly in conjunction with other
standard datasets, though its quality and accuracy remains largely unconstrained. A common
challenge in any prediction study is to choose a small but representative group of predictors,
one of which can be determined as the best. In this respect, exploratory analyses are used to
guide the make-up of this group, where we choose to compare a basic non-spatial model
versus four spatial alternatives, each catering for a variety of spatial effects. Using one
instance of RapidEye satellite imagery, we show that all four spatial models show better
adjustments than the non-spatial model in the water depth predictions, with the best predictor
yielding a correlation coefficient of actual versus predicted at 0.985. All five predictors also
factor in the influence of bottom type in explaining water depth variation. However, the
prediction ranges are too large to be used in high accuracy bathymetry products such as
navigation charts; nevertheless, they are considered beneficial in a variety of other
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13783

applications in sensitive disciplines such as environmental monitoring, seabed mapping, or

coastal zone management.

Keywords: multispectral; RapidEye; satellite; bathymetry; kriging; GWR

1. Introduction

The term, remote sensing encompasses a series of well established procedures for bathymetric
surveys of the seabed [1,2], but these procedures are not without limitations in terms of both the sensors
and those imposed by the environment [3]. Remote sensing for bathymetry can be subdivided into active
and passive techniques. Active remote sensing for bathymetry is generally represented by ship borne
multi-beam echo sounding (MBES) sensor arrays [4]. MBES surveys produce accurate depth
measurements along transects on the seabed but this method is constrained by high operating costs and
an inability to survey in very shallow waters, marine protected areas or endangered habitats such as coral
reefs [5]. Additionally, ship-borne surveys are time consuming and swath widths can be very narrow in
shallow waters. Although single beam surveys are less costly than their multi-beam alternative, their low
sampling density requires advanced interpolation (or prediction) techniques [6] to estimate seabed
topography, and, therefore, are generally not used for high accuracy surveys but rather commissioned
by local interest groups as an interim measure. A second non-imaging method known as satellite
altimetry can be used to measure the geoidal height and marine gravity field which, in turn, can be used
to determine the water depth from the linear relationship between the gravity anomaly and square of the
depth [7]. This method is only suitable for deep sea, for example, surveying large sea mounts [8]. Other
active methods such as airborne bathymetric LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) have achieved a
spatial resolution of 4 m (horizontal) and 20 cm in vertical accuracy at depths of over 30 m. However,
LiDAR is not ideal for all water types, as experience gained in Irish waters from the INFOMAR [9]
research program demonstrates. These tests resulted in very poor seabed detection along the east coast
of Ireland and limited penetration in the west coast up to 15 m. Satellite LiDAR (e.g., ICESat) has been
employed by Arsen [10] in conjunction with imagery from Landsat 5 and 7 to ascertain the water levels
of inland lakes but this type of LiDAR platform is not designed for high-resolution, high-accuracy
bathymetric surveys.
Although [11] has employed spatial video to monitor wave patterns to calculate near shore
bathymetry, passive remote sensing for bathymetry is predominantly performed using multispectral
satellite imagery. Multispectral imagery is preferable because electromagnetic radiation at different
wavelengths can penetrate the water column to different depths and the landwater interface can be
clearly defined. Bathymetry is calculated using analytical [12,13] or empirical methods [14,15], based
on the statistical relationships between image pixel values and ground truth depth measurements and is
applicable in shallow coastal waters. Accuracy is high using these methods for depths of water
penetration not exceeding 20 m but becomes less accurate in deeper waters [16]. Turbidity is an issue
for imagery derived bathymetry in all water types, as [17] have demonstrated in their study of high
sediment rivers in tidal inlets [18], and summarized by Gao [16]. Hyperspectral satellite data can provide
an important insight into the water column properties when deriving satellite bathymetry (e.g., turbidity,
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13784

oceanographic) [19] due to the greater number and narrower bands, however, the spatial resolution is
generally much larger than with multispectral (1 or 2 orders of magnitude).
Optical multi-spectral satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB) that implements analytical or empirical
methods, based on the statistical relationships between image pixel values and field measured water depth
measurements, apply the general physical principle that sea water transmittances at near-visible
wavelengths are functions of a general optical equation depending on the intrinsic optical properties of sea
water. A variety of empirical models have been proposed, from linear functions [20], band ratios to log
transformed regression models [21], and non-linear inverse models [22] with varying degrees of
corrections applied (atmospheric, sun glint, seafloor). The evolution of empirical models has been largely
linked to the chronology of satellite platforms: coarse spatial resolution using Landsat TM [13,23,24];
medium spatial resolution SPOT images in shallow waters [15,25] or RapidEye in lakes [26]; and high
spatial resolution with the use of commercial satellites such as WorldView [27,28], QuickBird [29,30]
and IKONOS [31].
The first and most popular approach for deriving bathymetric estimates from remote sensing imagery
was proposed by Lyzenga [20] in clear shallow waters using aerial photographs, identifying that the
reflectance from the seabed is dependent on the bottom type and the water depth. Since then, a wide variety
of empirical models have been proposed, although depth penetration is limited, water turbidity is an issue
and the models require calibration, particularly in areas of variable bottom type. Although [32] have
demonstrated an artificial neural network that is not influenced by bottom type or vegetation on the
seabed. The Lyzenga method [20] is not restricted to imagery from a single satelliteimagery from
Landsat TM [13,21,23,24], QuickBird [29,30], SPOT [15,25] and WorldView-2 [27,28] have all been
employed. Nor is the source of the imagery limited to satellitesFlener [33] have performed a
comparison between mobile laser scanners and UAV imagery for bathymetric surveys of rivers. Due to
the reduced viewing distance achievable with a UAV, this high resolution imagery can result in a ground
sampling distance as low as 5 cm. Work presented by Lyons [30] has demonstrated that not only is the
Lyzenga method [20] suitable for determining bathymetry but it is also suitable for classifying features
on the sea bed such as sea grass.
The methodology used in this research with respect to the remotely sensed imagery has its roots in that
applied by Stumpf and Holderied [21] which introduced an algorithm available in ENVI that uses a ratio
of reflectance to retrieve depths from IKONOS imagery even in deep water (> 25 m) contrary to a standard
linear transform algorithm. Su et al., [22] successfully automated the methodology of Stumpf and
Holderied [21], tested with IKONOS images, and implemented it as a module tool within the ArcGISTM
environment. For prediction model choice, we significantly extend that conducted in the related study of
Su et al., [34], where the (spatial) geographically weighted regression (GWR) model [35] was shown to
provide superior accuracy over a (non-spatial) multiple linear regression (MLR).
For many spatial prediction studies, there exists a wide range of models to choose from (e.g., [36]),
and as such, it is rarely sufficient to only compare two models. The skill is to choose a small but
representative group of predictors, one of which can be taken as the best. In this respect, exploratory
analyses with our study data indicated that the key relationship between the multibeam bathymetry and
the reflectance data is not constant across the study area (i.e., the relationship is non-stationary), but also
that significant spatial autocorrelation effects are present. Thus, GWR is still considered a good predictor
choice, as it accounts for such spatially-varying relationships. However, as autocorrelation effects are
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13785

also present, we aim to demonstrate a possible improvement to the study by Su et al., (2014) [34] above,
by expanding the model comparison from two to five models. One predictor is a hybrid between GWR
and kriging (GWRK) [37,38] that captures both spatial effects. The other two predictors stem from the
kriging with an external drift (KED) model (e.g., [39]), which, provided it is calibrated within a local
neighbourhood (i.e. KED-LN), similarly captures both spatial effects; whilst KED within a global
neighbourhood (i.e., KED-GN) only caters for stationary relationships, as with MLR [37,40]. Although
this particular model comparison is not novel in the wider literature (e.g., see [37,38]), its use in this
studys context is.
Thus, a key study aim is to determine to what degree we need to account for our observed exploratory
findings in order to provide the most accurate water depth predictions. Are the spatial non-stationarity and
spatial autocorrelation effects, equally important (i.e., prefer a KED-LN or GWRK fit)? Alternatively, is
one effect significantly more important than the other (i.e., choose GWR in preference to KED-GN or
visa-versa)? The MLR fit is not expected to perform well, and simply acts as a benchmark predictor, which
the other four models would default to, if spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation effects were
entirely absent in the data. Thus, our study objectives can be summarized as follows:
Evaluate the overall suitability of RapidEye satellite data for deriving coastal bathymetry in a
representative C-shaped bay environment, through application of a blue/green band ratio and
statistical models using ground calibration points.
Determine the most suitable prediction model for the data analysed using a non-spatial,
multivariate model versus four spatial alternatives, each catering for a variety of spatial effects.
Demonstrate the value in comparing a range of predictors, carefully chosen via a suitable
exploratory analysis.
Discuss the spatial patterns of the best models predictions in relation to the bays physical
characteristics.

2. Study Area and Datasets

The following sections introduce the study area, the satellite imagery employed, the multibeam depth
data that was used to calibrate the model and validate it, and the seabed classification maps.

2.1. Study Area

The study area (Figure 1) is located in the inner part of Dublin Bay on the east coast of Ireland. The
region investigated is a C-shaped inlet, a designated UNESCO Biosphere and covers an area of
approximately 50 km(10 km long and 5 km wide) with water depths ranging from 015 m. The bay is
joined and bisected by the river Liffey in the south and north. The intertidal region extends in a broad
arc around most of the bay, giving a total intertidal area of some 20 km, in a relatively flat topography
interrupted by tidally controlled related features, such as drainage channels and inlets. Beyond the intertidal
region, the topography of the bay is characterized by a gentle E-W regional slope not exceeding 0.5. Near
the northern shoreline, off the Howth peninsula, slopes can be, locally, steep up to 5. The Liffey channel
extends ca. 6 km E-W and has a U-shape section, with a width between 300 and 1200 m, heights ranging
from 68 m and wall slopes averaging 13. A number of man-made structures such as pipelines, buoys
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13786

and anchorage sites are present in the study area described in the nautical charts. Descriptions of Dublin
Bay and its intertidal environment are given in earlier papers by several authors [41,42].
The study area has been chosen as a representative test with similar characteristics in terms of
geomorphology (e.g., C-shaped bay, estuaries) and socio-environmental factors (e.g., dense city, sea
level rise) to other embayment areas worldwide. Data availability issues with recent hydrographic
bathy2metry surveys together with suitable satellite imagery have also been a key factor.

Figure 1. Study AreaDublin Bay, East coast of Ireland. The Liffey channel is clearly
centrally located.

2.2. Multibeam Bathymetry Data

The groundtruthing water depth (WD) data used in this study was acquired during JuneSeptember
in 2009 as part of INFOMAR, the Irish national seabed mapping program (www.infomar.ie). The system
employed onboard the R.V. Keary was the multibeam Kongsberg-Simrad MBES (EM3002) operating
at circa 300 kHz [43]. Data was collected using differential GPS and tidal corrections were applied in
the post-processing. Depths were reduced to LAT (Lowest Astronomical Tide) and deemed suitable for
hydrographic charts. The complete system was capable of measuring water depths between 0 and 15 m
with a vertical accuracy of less than 10 cm RMS and a horizontal positioning accuracy of less than 1 m.
These data are used as the response variable in our study models.

2.3. Satellite Imagery

The (model predictor) image used for this study was acquired by the RapidEye satellite constellation.
RapidEye imagery was selected because it was the most suitable in terms of spatial and spectral
resolution and also time of image capture. Figure 2 displays the RGB RapidEye image of the study area,
characterized by calm sea conditions and a cloud free atmosphere (2% cloud-cover).
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13787

Figure 2. Study imagery, a RapidEye RGB Image of Dublin Bay, East coast of Ireland.
1 June 2009 at 12:13 UTC.

2.3.1. Spatial Resolution

There are five pushbroom satellites in the commercial RapidEye constellation, providing a daily
off-nadir repeat cycle and a 5.5 day repeat cycle at nadir. The ground sampling distance of the
multispectral sensors on board these satellites is 6.5 m but this is re-sampled to provide users with a 5 m
spatial resolution for Level 3a orthorectified imagery. A 5 m spatial resolution will enable subtle changes
in bathymetry to be identified and quantified (such as bedforms and channels), whereas larger pixel sizes
such as a 30 m Landsat 8 pixel will cause a greater degree of generalisation/smoothing to be introduced
and steep submerged gradients may not be resolved, leading to errors in bathymetric charts. The 5 m
spatial resolution also corresponded with the 5 m MBES grid spacing and each pixel could then be
matched with a corresponding MBES point.

2.3.2. Spectral Resolution

The spectral range of the RapidEye satellite begins at 440 nm, a comparable wavelength with the
coastal/aerosol band of Landsat8 (433 nm), maximising radiance measurements from the seabed.
Although RapidEye has a dedicated Red-Edge band at 690 nm730 nm for vegetation studies that is
sensitive to changes in chlorophyll content, we used the NIR band (760 nm850 nm) in this study, as it
outperformed the Red Edge band in delineating the landsea interface.

2.3.3. Time of Imagery

The image employed in these tests was captured on 1 June 2009. RapidEyes sun-synchronous orbit and
a 12:13 UTC image capture would correspond with low tide in Dublin Bay on that day (12:05 UTC). There
were three important considerations when choosing the date of the imagery: ensuring the image
corresponded as closely as possible with the date of the INFOMAR MBES survey, coinciding with low
tide to minimize the distance light would have to penetrate through the water column and a high
illumination angle which would have the same effect.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13788

2.4. Seabed Classification Data

Seabed type information was derived from the seabed geological maps and databases published by
the Geological Survey of Ireland (www.gsi.ie). These maps, produced by interpreting multibeam
bathymetry and backscatter data, inform about seabed type and geomorphological factors. Data points
showing similar characteristics are grouped into discrete classes (see Table 1). Sediment samples are
used to label these classes with geological descriptors. This dataset provides a further predictor variable
in our study models. Fine-grained sediments (classes 3, 4 and 5) account for over 92% of the Bays
seafloor. Hardgrounds (class 1) and Channel class (class 2) account for 4% each.

Table 1. Seabed type and descriptions.

MBES
Class Name Description Topography
Backscatter
1 Hardground Rock outcrops and mixed gravelly sediments Rough High
Topographically controlled class with mixed
2 Channel Rough High
fine-grained sediments
3 Fine sediments I Featureless fine sediments Smooth Moderate
4 Fine sediments II Featureless fine sediments Smooth Low
Fine sediments with bedforms and possible
5 Fine sediments III Smooth Very Low
tidal control

3. Methodology

3.1. Satellite Image Processing

3.1.1. Radiometric and Geometric Corrections

Satellite imagery such as Landsat or RapidEye are generally stored in a database and classified by the
degree of processing. This ranges from Level 0, a raw, uncorrected image up to Level 4, where all
corrections have been applied and a series of analyses (such as vegetation indices) have been applied to
the imagery. The RapidEye imagery used in this study was provided at Level 3a, meaning that all
radiometric and sensor corrections had been performed. Level 3a imagery has also been aligned to a
cartographic map projection and geometric corrections applied using fine DEMs with a post spacing of
between 30 and 90 m and Ground Control Points (GCPs). RapidEye satellite images are collected with
a bit depth of up to 12 bits and stored on-board the satellites. They are then scaled to a 16 bit dynamic
range. Scaling converts relative pixel DNs into values directly related to absolute at-sensor radiances. A
scaling factor is applied so that these post-processed single DN values correspond to 1/100th of a W/m2
sr m. The digital numbers of the RapidEye image pixels represent the absolute calibrated radiance
values for the image.

3.1.2. Atmospheric Corrections

The main focus of this research was to assess the suitability of a number of spatial models to predict
relative water depth (WD) using an already tested band ratio algorithm and calibration data. Atmospheric
corrections may pose unnecessary bias in accurately assessing the spatial models due to cumulative
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13789

increase in error uncertainty. Several studies focusing on measuring water quality using Landsat sensors
have questioned the advantage of using atmospherically corrected data when attempting to describe the
variability of optical water properties [44,45]. Additionally, by using a single satellite image, and with
the atmospheric conditions present, it is a reasonable assumption that they will not be noticeably different
across the test area.

3.1.3. Contribution of Sun-Glint as an Error Source

Sun-glint can appear at the slope of waves and this potentially influences the returned signal. Sun-glint
is a problematic issue in bathymetric surveys with satellite imagery. For example, Goodman (2008) [46]
demonstrated that sun-glint in high resolution imagery can result in errors of up to 30% of the water
depth. It is most common where the sensor is facing towards the sun [47], however, with a relative
azimuth of 51(solar illumination elevation angle minus the satellite view angle) significantly less than
90, it can be anticipated that sun-glint was not a significant issue for this RapidEye image [48]. To
further confirm this conclusion, three additional tests were carried out:
(a) A visual inspection of the imagethe RGB image of the test site was inspected to identify the
presence of sun-glint. None were apparent. However the spatial resolution could potentially have
masked the effect.
(b) In theory, energy in the NIR portion of the spectrum should be absorbed in water, and therefore
any NIR that is recorded over water is due to sun-glint. In reality, there is always a small portion
of NIR recorded by the sensor and it rarely equates to a DN of 0 [49]. The NIR values for the test
site were inspected looking for significant variation which would imply areas of sun-glint. None
were identified.
(c) A final dual-wavelength test was designed to ensure no sun-glint was present in the area. A
process developed by Hedley et al., [50] demonstrates a method for removing sun-glint and this
was adapted and used to assess whether sun-glint was a significant contributory factor. An area
of deep water, where the spectral brightness could be considered as homogenous, was located.
The values for the Blue band in the visible portion of the spectrum and the NIR were then plotted
against each other and a linear regression line was applied to the data. Here a very low correlation
of 0.08 between NIR and Blue band values implied that minimal sun-glint is present, as the NIR
values do not increases as the Blue band values increase. The slope of the linear regression line
is used by Hedley et al., [50] to apply a de-glinting correction to the pixels. However, our results
and the clear shallow slope of the linear regression line from the test area demonstrate that this
is not necessary.

3.1.4. Log Ratio Algorithm for Satellite Derived Relative Depth

The method to derive the relative radiance for the satellite data was based on the methodology adopted
by Stumpf and Holderied [21]. The Relative Water Depth tool enabled in ENVI 5 suite was used to
extract the log ratio between the green band (520590 nm) and the blue band (440510 nm). The
algorithm uses a ratio of observed reflectance and two constants to calculate satellite derived relative
depth (SDRD), as follows:
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13790

( ( ))
= 1 0 (1)
( ( ))

Rw is the observed reflectance of the wavelength () for bands i and j, the ratio of which forms the
basis for depth extraction. The blue (i) and green (j) bands were used for the ratio input as they have
the greatest penetration though the water column. The constant, n, is a fixed value, chosen to keep the
ratio positive given any reflectance value input. The output must still be calibrated to field data to
estimate actual depth. m1 is a tunable constant to scale the ratio to depth, while m0 is the offset correction
when the output should be zero (i.e., SDRD = 0), used most recently by Pattaniak et al., [51] and Jawak
and Luis [52] for Indian Ocean and Antarctic Ocean coastal surveys. The application of this band ratio
algorithm has led to improvements in the water depth empirical models, particularly dealing with
seafloor reflectance issues or water column issues [53]. However, limitations in the implementation are
still hampered by its complexity, particularly on the physics of light transmission within turbid
waters [17,54] and in biota covered bottoms as details in Lyons et al., [30]. The output SDRD data was
exported to vector point data using the pixel centroid as the geo-reference locator.

3.2. Data Integration

The geo-referenced SDRD values (our first predictor variable) were combined with the multibeam
WD (response) data, together with the categorical seabed type (our second predictor variable), using the
nearest neighbor algorithm in ArcGIS 10. This resulted in a full data set of 12,665 observations. In
order to efficiently compare the accuracy of our prediction models with respect to reduced computational
overheads, we then decimated this data by randomly removing 80% of the observations. For objective
model comparison, this decimated data set was then randomly split into a model calibration data set of
632 observations and a set-aside model validation data set of size 1898 observations. Here, we choose a
25:75% split as some aspects of model calibration are still computationally expensive (but not
prohibitively so). Data processing operations were conducted within the R statistical computing
environment (http://www.r-project.org), as were the implementation of the prediction models in the
following sections.

3.3. Prediction Models

We calibrate and assess five multivariate prediction models, each of which try to accurately predict
multibeam WD using SDRD data and seabed-type, as two predictor variables. Preliminary analyses
indicated that spatial autocorrelation effects are present and that the relationship between WD and SDRD
changes across the study waters. With these initial findings in mind, we choose the following predictors
for evaluation: (1) MLR; (2) GWR; (3) KED-GN; (4) KED-LN; and (5) GWRK (i.e., kriging with GWR
as its trend component). Essentially, MLR assumes stationary (constant) relationships between the
response and predictor data, as does KED-GN. On the other hand, GWR, KED-LN and GWRK each
model the same relationships, as non-stationary. In addition, KED-GN, KED-LN and GWRK each
account for spatial autocorrelation effects, whilst MLR and GWR do not. Thus, MLR is the only
non-spatial model of the five; and only KED-LN and GWRK model both non-stationary relationships
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13791

and autocorrelation effects. A summary of these properties is given in Table 2. The five study predictors
are now formally described.

Table 2. Core properties of this studys prediction models.

Are Spatial Effects How are Spatial Relationships Is Spatial Autocorrelation
Model
Modelled? Modelled? Accounted for?
MLR No Stationary No
KED-GN Yes Stationary Yes
GWR Yes Non-stationary No
GWRK Yes Non-stationary Yes
KED-LN Yes Non-stationary Yes

For a response variable z and predictor variables 1 , 2 , , , the MLR model has this form: =
0 + =1 + with sample data denoted by = 1, , ; and where are the residual data.
Using ordinary least squares to find the estimator , a prediction from MLR at a target location is
found from:
K
zMLR x 0 k yk x (2)
k 1

The GWR model can be defined as = 0 ( ) + =1 ( ) + , where ( ) is a

realisation of the continuous function () at sample location . In particular, a localised MLR is
calibrated at any location , where observations close to are geographically weighted (GW) according
to some kernel function. Thus, GWR parameters are estimated using a weighted least squares (WLS)
approach with weights changing according to location. A prediction from GWR at a target location is
found from:
K
zGWR x 0 x k x yk x (3)
k 1

For this study, the weighting matrix in GWR is specified using a bi-square kernel whose optimal
bandwidth is found in an adaptive form using leave-one-out cross-validation. Here, the squared
prediction error (or cross-validation (CV) score) is calculated for a range of bandwidths and the
bandwidth that gives the minimum CV score is considered optimal.
All forms of kriging stem from the linear predictor () () = =1 ()[( ) ( )],
where () is the kriging weight assigned to ( ); and where () and ( ) are the means of the
random variables () and ( ), respectively. The prediction error is also defined as a random variable
() (), where the variance of this prediction error 2 () = {() ()} is minimized
under the constraint that E{() ()} = 0. The weights () are found by solving a system of
linear equations calibrated with parameters of the covariogram, which is a model of the datas spatial
autocorrelation. Thus, decomposing () into a mean () plus residual () component; () is
modelled as a stationary random function with E{()} = 0 and covariogram COV{(), ( + )} =
E{(), ( + )} = (), where is the separation distance vector, = . For details, see,
for example, Goovaerts [55].
For KED, () is modelled as an unknown using the linear function () = =0 () (i.e., a
MLR fit with 0 () = 1), where it is filtered from the linear predictor by using constraints to give:
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13792

n
zKED x KED x z x (4)
1

as a KED prediction at . If () is modelled as an unknown constant, then an ordinary kriging (OK)

prediction at results: () = =1 ()( ). The GWRK predictor at a target location is the
sum of the GWR prediction from Equation (3) and the OK prediction of the residual:
zGWRK x zGWR x rOK x (5)
GWRK is an explicit model where the mean and residual processes are dealt with separately in a
two-stage procedure. KED deals with the mean and residual processes in an implicit fashion where all
model equations are solved at once.
Kriging is always defined with the residual covariogram (), but when the mean is taken as some
constant with OK, only the raw data covariogram () is needed. Furthermore, and as is common practice,
we find variograms () instead of covariograms (where () = (0) () is used to relate the two).
Restricted maximum likelihood (REML) is used to find relatively unbiased variogram parameters for
KED. Parameterization via REML is not suited to GWRK and as such, the residual variogram () from
the GWR fit is first estimated with the usual classical estimator (e.g., [56], pp.153154) and then modelled
using a WLS fitting approach. After some initial experimentation, only exponential variogram model-types
are considered, i.e., () = 0 + 1 (1 exp(/)); which caters for a (small-scale) nugget variance
0 ; a (large-scale) structural variance 1 (where 0 + 1 = 2 ); and a correlation range .
All forms of kriging can be applied using local prediction neighbourhoods as opposed to a unique,
global prediction neighbourhood; an approximation that can account for local mean fluctuations and
ease computational burden. In this study, KED is not only applied in its correct and unbiased form using
a global neighbourhood (KED-GN), but also applied using local neighbourhoods (KED-LN), as this
usefully caters for relationships that may vary across space (as now the MLR component fit is also local).
An optimal neighbourhood for KED-LN is found using a cross-validation procedure that is analogous to
that used in GWR for finding its bandwidth (but where the root mean squared error, RMSE, is reported
instead). Further details on the calibration of all five study models can be found in Harris et al. [37,57];
Harris and Juggins [38].
Observe that we model spatial non-stationarity as a first-order mean-response effect (via GWR or the
trend components of GWRK and KED-LN), whilst spatial autocorrelation is a second-order
variance-response effect (modelled via the residuals in GWRK and KED); but as in any single realization
process, their exists an analytical impasse in identifying one spatial effect from the other, that can never
be satisfactorily resolved (e.g., [55,56]). One consequence of which is that a localised predictor such as
GWR will often similarly account for spatial autocorrelation effects even though it is not specifically
designed to do so. This is analogous to how a basic predictor such as inverse distance weighting will
often provide comparable results to a more sophisticated predictor such as simple or ordinary kriging
(e.g., see Cressie [58]). Finally, we do not attempt to model anisotropic effects, either with respect to the
shape of the kernel in GWR or the variogram in kriging.

3.4. Model Validation

The prediction accuracy of each study model is measured by:

Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13793

N
MPE 1 N z xv zxv (6)
v 1
N
RMSPE 1 N zxv zxv 2 (7)
v 1
N
MAPE 1 N z xv zxv (8)
v 1

for the mean prediction error (MPE), the root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE), and the mean
absolute prediction error (MAPE), respectively. The correlation coefficient (Cor-Coef) between ( )
and ( ) is also found. Here, ( ) refers to the actual WD data at the model validation sites, whilst
( ) refers to the predicted WD data at those sites, and = 1898 is the size of the study validation
data set. These model validation statistics are supplemented with various plots and maps to provide a
rich picture of a given models prediction accuracy.

4. Results

4.1. Exploratory Analyses with the Calibration Data

In the first instance, a box-cox transformation of the SDRD data (renamed to SDRD.T) is applied, as
it very slightly improves the linearity between it and WD (with a small correlation improvement of 0.87
to 0.88). The transform results in an estimated exponent of lambda = 2.5 (i.e., this transform is applied,
SDRD2.5). Regardless of whether a transform is applied or not, it is clear that the SDRD data will be a
strong predictor of WD. Histograms and scatterplots of this analysis are given in Figure 3ae. Note also,
that the correlations between WD and the coordinate data are 0.69 and 0.23 for Eastings and Northings,
respectively. This confirms the expected East-West trend in WD, as WD in the Bay generally increases
towards the East, as we move further from the shore.
Conditional boxplots for WD and SEABED display a worthy WD discriminating value for this
predictor variable, especially for seabed class 2 (Figure 3f). The use of this categorical predictor variable
in addition to SDRD.T also provides a stronger exploratory MLR fit; The Akaike Information Criterion
(AIC) without this variable is 395.3, whilst AIC with this variable is reduced to 375.5. Thus, SEABED
is retained as a predictor variable in addition to SDRD.T, and all five study prediction models will be
calibrated as such. The spatial distributions of WD, SDRD.T and SEABED are given in Figure 4.
Visually, both predictor variables appear suited to help explain the variation in WD, in some way.
In order to investigate relationship non-stationarity, GW correlations are found for WD versus
SDRD.T, firstly using (a narrow) 10%, and secondly using (a wide) 50% bandwidth (each with bi-square
kernels). Note that the bandwidths for the GW correlations are user-specified and are not optimally
found. Details on how to conduct a GW correlation analysis can be found in Harris et al., [59], and
follow a similar procedure to a GWR analysis. From Figure 5, it can be seen that this relationship varies
across space, where the relationship tends to get weaker as water depth increases (see Figure 4a). This
local analysis confirms the value in a calibrating a non-stationary relationship predictor (i.e., GWR,
GWRK and KED-LN). Observe that we have not explored the non-stationary relationship between WD
and SEABED.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13794

Figure 3. Exploratory analysis: (a) histogram of WD, (b) histogram of SDRD, (c) histogram
of SDRD.T, (d) scatterplot of WD versus SDRD, (e) scatterplot of WD versus SDRD.T, and
(f) conditional box-plots for WD versus SEABED.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13795

Figure 4. Maps of the study variables: (a) WD, (b) SDRD.T, and (c) Seabed class (see Table 1).

Figure 5. GW correlations between WD and SDRT.T using: (a) 10% and (b) 50% bandwidths.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13796

4.2. Model Calibration

To calibrate GWR and GWRK, an optimal bandwidth is first found for GWR via cross-validation. The
same GWR fit is then used as the trend component of GWRK, and the corresponding residual variogram
is found for GWRK. To calibrate the KED models, residual variogram parameters are found via REML,
which are then used to parameterize both KED forms, but where an optimal local neighbourhood is found
for KED-LN via cross-validation. Variograms for KED and GWRK (Figure 6a,b), both exhibit spatial
structure, indicating some value in accounting for spatial autocorrelation effects. Similarly, the
cross-validation functions (Figure 6c,d) for the bandwidth in GWR and the neighbourhood in KED-LN, both
reach a minimum, indicating some value in accounting for non-stationary relationship effects. As is expected,
the variogram structure is much stronger for KED than for GWRK, and the bandwidth/neighbourhood
function is much steeper for GWR than for KED (see discussions given in Harris et al. [37]).
Interrogating model calibration functions is important, as it provides context to model implementation,
as well as helping to interpret the results. Note that for a visual comparison only, we have presented the
KED and GWRK variograms using the same WLS variogram fitting procedure, but KED actually used
a REML variogram fit.

Figure 6. Model calibration plots: (a) empirical residual variogram for KED with WLS fit,
(b) empirical residual variogram for GWRK with WLS fit, (c) GWR bandwidth function
with optimum at 55 nearest neighbours, (d) KED neighbourhood function with optimum at
135 neighbours.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13797

4.3. Prediction Accuracy at the Validation sites

The prediction accuracy results for the five study models are given in Table 3, indicating that KED-
LN is clearly the best predictor of water depth, in this instance. For model choice, this result concurs
with the simulation study of Harris et al. [37] using the same set of prediction models. Thus, it is
important to cater for non-stationary relationship effects (at least between WD and SDRD.T, but also for
WD and SEABED) and for spatial autocorrelation effectsboth of which KED-LN does. GWRK also
does both aspects, but clearly not as well. The poor performance of GWRK can be explained by its focus
on modelling non-stationary relationship effects, rather than spatial autocorrelation effects (as shown by
the well-behaved GWR bandwidth function in Figure 6c, combined with the weak structure of its
residual variogram in Figure 6b). Considering the relatively good performance of KED-GN (our second
best predictor), it is clear that, in this instance, accounting for spatial autocorrelation effects is much
more important than accounting for non-stationary relationship effects. As expected, MLR is the poorest
performer, and we observe also that GWRK only provides a marginal improvement over the simpler
GWR fit (which again can be attributed to the observed weak structure in the GWRK residual variogram
in Figure 6b).

Table 3. Prediction accuracy results.

Cor-Coef
(MPE) RMSPE MAPE
Model (Should be
(Should be Zero) (Tend to Zero) (Tend to Zero)
One)
MLR (0.041) 1.312 1.002 0.877
KED-GN (0.001) 0.511 0.313 0.983
GWR (0.036) 0.779 0.535 0.960
GWRK (0.038) 0.761 0.522 0.962
KED-LN (0.027) 0.470 0.283 0.985

4.4. Analysis of KED-LN Performance

Prediction accuracy plots and maps are given for KED-LN in Figure 7ac. Clearly the largest
prediction errors occur around the deep channel and can be a result of both over- and under-prediction
(Figure 7b). There is a significant change in polarity from the western mouth (negative) to the eastern
(positive), coupled with a decrease in the amount of anomalous points. A significant number (circa 0.4%)
of over-predictions also occur to the far edges, mostly north and to a lesser extent south (Figure 7b). A
GW correlation map of actual WD (i.e., the MBES WD data at the validation sites) versus predicted WD
(i.e., the KED-LN predictions of WD) is given (Figure 7c) and needs to be compared with the
corresponding global correlation of 0.985 (from Table 2). Again, the poorest correlations are centrally
located, but an area of poor correlation is also present off Howth (the NE corner).
Conditional accuracy plots for KED-LN are given in Figure 7d,e, where it appears that in general
KED-LNs performance does not strongly depend on depth or seabed type. Some notable residual
dependencies can be observed though. For example, many of the largest (positive) residuals from
KED-LN occur in shallow waters, near the channel (i.e., prediction is deeper than it should be); the other
area, off Howth as mentioned above, shows a small cluster of large positive residuals with similar values,
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13798

near the shoreline coinciding largely with SEABED class 1. SEABED class 2 which largely coincides
with the channel (see Figure 4c), also provides the most biased condition boxplot, followed by SEABED
class 1, largely along the edges of the bay and associated to some rock outcrops and hardgrounds.

Figure 7. Accuracy plots and maps for KED-LN at validation sites: (a) scatterplot of actual
WD versus predicted WD, (b) map of residuals (actual WDpredicted WD), (c) GW
correlation map for actual WD and predicted WD, (d) scatterplot of actual WD versus
residuals (with useful thresholds), and (e) conditional boxplots for residuals with respect to
seabed class (with useful thresholds). Observe that WD is always measured negatively.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13799

5. Discussion

5.1. Data Relationships

The linear relationship between SDRD.T and WD was found to be strong with a high negative
correlation coefficient of 0.9. This relationship is global reflecting the bay as a whole. However, in
investigating this relationship locally, it was found to vary across the bay, where the relationship
weakened according to increasing water depth. This heterogeneity in the SDRD.T to WD relationship
was thus accounted for in three of the five study predictors (GWR, GWRK and KED-LN), whilst the
relationship is naively assumed to be homogeneous in the remaining predictors (MLR and KED-GN).
Seabed class was also found to be a good discriminator of WD but this relationship was not assessed
across the bay. As such, this relationship was simply modelled locally in GWR, GWRK and KED-LN;
but globally in MLR and KED-GN. Spatial autocorrelation in the residual data was also observed and
accounted for (in a global fashion only) in the GWRK, KED-LN and KED-GN predictors. Local,
heterogeneous autocorrelation was not investigated but could have been using predictors such as those
presented in Harris et al. [40].

5.2. Performance of this Studys Most Accurate Predictor (KED-LN)

The spatial distribution of the residuals from KED-LN predictions and the spatial distribution of the
local (GW) correlations between the actual and predicted WD (presented in Figure 7b,c, respectively)
shows a distinct spatial pattern linked to the general bays geometry, topographic controls and bottom
type. The local correlations are stronger and more consistent in the southern section, and in a smaller
extent, in the northern section, both areas characterized by low complex topography and homogeneous
fine-grained seabed type (classes 3 and 4). Weak correlation and higher residuals patterns are largely
associated with high relief controls (Liffey channel) and the edges of the bay (very shallow waters or
occasional hardgrounds in class 1).
KED-LNs minor dependency on depth can be observed. Under-prediction occurs mainly in the
Liffey channel (observe the red dots of negative residuals in Figure 7b and the points on the bottom
left-hand quarter of Figure 7d). One possible explanation is that the signal reflected is largely absorbed,
or scattered in the water column, with just a residual component (or inexistent) coming from the seafloor
bottom albedo. Therefore, the water-leaving signal represents closely the maximum penetration in the
water rather than true depth to bottom. Differences in water column properties could be the main cause
for the increase in absorption or scattering effects in these locations. Under-prediction could also be
caused by local changes in the seabed type.
Seafloor bottom reflectance is an important component of the overall water-leaving signal in coastal
waters [24]. The assumption of a uniform bottom type is generally not appropriate in coastal areas due
to the dynamic environment near the shoreline characterised by complex sediment and oceanographic
patterns. The inclusion in our models of seabed class, as a categorical predictor variable, provides some
significant results to further enhance the debate and becomes an initial attempt to better constrain the
contribution of the bottom reflectance in the overall scheme.
The central Liffey channel is where the model presents larger uncertainties, larger residuals and
reduced accuracy. The rough geomorphological characteristics of the channel and the high backscatter
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13800

levels indicating harder and/ or rougher seafloor can influence the bottom reflectance contribution to the
water-leaving radiance becoming more complex and generally larger than the more homogenous
surroundings. Additionally, higher turbidity due to strong sediment fluxes along the navigational channel
might also play a role increasing local variability in the water column. This is to a certain extent captured
in the conditional boxplots for SEABED class 2 in Figure 7e, with some large negative residuals
reflecting large under-predictions.
Rock outcrops and hard bottoms are present in the region approximately covering 5% of the study
area. These hard seafloor patches, mostly falling in seabed class 1, should have a larger component from
the seafloor bottom albedo than the surroundings primarily due to the greater optical contrast in the
water-seabed interface. This is true in the rock outcrops from the northern sector, where the KED-LN
predictions generally show consistently positive residuals (prediction is deeper than it should be).
The southern half of the bay is where the KED-LN model preforms better with high (actual WD
versus predicted WD) correlation coefficients (r 0.98), low residuals (residuals 0.5 m) and the
narrowest residual boxplot (class 3, in Figure 7e). This area is characterised by a smooth topography,
largely featureless and with homogenous sediment type. Additionally, the area also benefits from a low
dynamic environment compared to the other areas, linked to stable water properties. These conditions
are all favourable for a robust model fit.

5.3. The Value of our Model Comparison Exercise and Its Transferability

It has been worthwhile to compare a number of statistical predictors, each covering a range of attributes;
attributes decided upon via a focused global and local exploratory analysis. We chose models that could
account for: (i) global relationships between our variable of interest (WD) and its predictors (SDRD.T and
SEABED class); (ii) local relationships between the same variables; and (iii) spatial autocorrelation effects.
Via a comprehensive model accuracy assessment, a standard geostatistical model (KED-LN) was found to
be the best predictor of water depth. This model was one of two study models (the other being the relatively
new, GWRK model) that could capture both local relationships and spatial autocorrelation.
This studys group of five prediction models should be readily transferable to similar embayment
studies with similar physical characteristics, for predicting water depth. However, it should not be
expected that KED-LN would similarly provide the best predictions at all times, but only that one
predictor of the group is likely to provide similar and worthwhile levels of accuracy as that found here.
Thus the transferability of our approach refers to group of five models as a whole, and not one individual
model in particular. That said, our experience suggests that KED will tend to provide the best results;
reflecting its theoretical property as an optimal linear predictor (e.g., [39]). Observe also that our
approach is suited only to situations where ground measurements exist so that the models can be
calibrated; the parameters of this studys models are not transferable to ungauged areas and should never
be considered so.

5.4. Expected Effects of Reduced Model Calibration Sample Size on Prediction Performance

It is useful to discuss the likely effects of reduced model calibration sample size on each of our study
predictors. As sample size decreases, the prediction accuracy of all predictors would degrade, but not
necessarily in a uniform manner across the five model fits. Here, a reduction in sample size is likely to
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13801

create a problem in selecting the bandwidth for GWR and similarly the neighbourhood for KED (i.e.,
non-stationary relationships cannot be determined due to diminishing local information). As a result, the
optimal bandwidth or neighbourhood will tend to a global form. Thus, GWR prediction accuracy would tend
to that of the corresponding MLR model, whilst KED-LN prediction accuracy would tend to that of the
corresponding KED-GN model. These effects will be more pronounced in KED-LN as its trend component
can be viewed as GWR with a box-car kernel whose localness is determined using only un-weighed
local data subsets; whereas GWR with a distance-decay kernel, such as the bi-square, can still model
locally whist utilising all available information (see Harris et al.) [57]. In addition, KEDs residual
variography would also suffer from diminishing information, ultimately resulting in a pure nugget
variogram. Thus, KEDs prediction accuracy would also then tend to MLR in this instance. Similar
remarks can be made with respect to GWRK whose prediction accuracy would also tend to that of MLR
as sample size reduces. Overall, MLR would be the least affected by a reduction in model calibration
size, as its non-spatial form requires the least information for reliable model parameter estimation.

5.5. Further Considerations

Further work could refine this modelling approach to provide accurate prediction confidence intervals
using a Bayesian construction of the KED model (e.g., Pardo-Igzquiza and Dowd [60]. In this study,
we deliberately chose not to report these intervals, as it is well-known that those from the standard KED
model are of little practical use (e.g., Harris et al., [57]). Assessing predictions at different time periods
would also be worthwhile, where the predictors of this study could either be re-applied at each time
interval, or alternatively, a full space-time prediction model could be used, again using Bayesian
concepts (e.g., [61]). More detailed investigations of the satellite reflectance data may also be worthy,
with possible extensions to hyperspectral imagery. Considering the localised theme of this study, a local
dimension reduction technique for such high-dimensional imagery may be useful; for example, a GW
principal components analysis (e.g., [62]). Finally, if it is known that the study area exhibits well defined
discontinuities, then the prediction models should be tailored accordingly. For example, the GWR model
could be adapted following that outlined in Gribov and Krivoruchko [63].

6. Conclusions

RapidEye multispectral sensors were primarily designed for land applications, however, in this study
they are used satisfactorily for bathymetric mapping in a representative coastal embayment. This study
presents a promising statistical methodology for predicting coastal bathymetry from the water-leaving
radiance signal and field calibration data (i.e., water depth measurements and seabed classification). The
results confirm that RapidEye datasets are well suited to infer depths up to 12 m using spatial prediction
models calibrated with a limited number of water depth measurements (50 depth measurements /km).
The best models prediction accuracy, within a range of 1 m, is 95.0%.
Our assessment reveals that the four spatial models of this study show better adjustments in the basic
non-spatial model in the predictions. Prediction accuracy results indicate that a kriging with an external
drift model using local kriging neighbourhoods is clearly the best predictor, stressing the importance of
catering for both spatial autocorrelation and non-stationary relationships. For this predictor, the
correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted water depth data is very strong at 0.985.
Remote Sens. 2015, 7 13802

In coastal areas, ship-based multibeam or LiDAR bathymetry surveys attaining 100% coverage are
sometimes unavailable or prohibitively expensive, while the dynamic nature of the coast makes precision
and repeatability a challenge. Spatial prediction models can provide reasonable and error controlled
water depth predictions in an inexpensive and efficient manner from a relatively low number of
groundtruthing points.The prediction errors presented in this paper are too large to be used in high
accuracy products such as navigational charts; however, with the right quality controls applied, they can
be applied in a range of important fields from environmental monitoring to seabed mapping and coastal
management.

Acknowledgments

Research presented in this paper is supported by: (a) a Strategic Research Cluster grant
(07/SRC/I1168)StratAG, awarded to the National Centre of Geocomputation by Science Foundation
Ireland under the National Development Plan; and (b) the North Wyke Farm Platform supported by the
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council of the UK (BBSRC BB/J004308). The authors
wish to thank the INFOMAR program, the Irish Marine Institute and the Geological Survey of Ireland
for the datasets provided. RapidEye datasets were provided by the European Space Agency under
Blackbridge Ltd copyright. This publication has emanated in part from research conducted with the
financial support of Science Foundation Ireland under Grant "SFI 13/IF/I2778. We acknowledge the
constructive input provided during review of this manuscript by three anonymous reviewers.

Author Contributions

Silvia Caloca, Paul Harris and Xavier Monteys conceived the research outline. Conor Cahalane and
Xavier Monteys coordinated the image and bathymetry acquisition and analysis procedure for the study site.
Paul Harris carried out the spatial statistical analysis. Conor Cahalane, Xavier Monteys and Paul Harris
analysed the data and interpreted the results. All the co-authors contributed equally to writing the paper.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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