FED SURVEY

March 14, 2017
These survey results represent the opinions of 50 of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.

FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on March 9-11, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.

1. At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Raise interest
rates 100%

Lower interest
rates 0%

Keep rates
unchanged 0%

Don't know/
unsure 0%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 1 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

2. After its upcoming meeting, the Federal Reserve's next
directional move will most likely be:
FED SURVEY
Raise interest rates Lower interest rates
April 30,
Move to negative interest rates Launch new quantitative easing
100%
100% 100% 100% 100%
98%
90% 94% 95% 95%
92%
90%
88% Raise interest rates
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
Launch new quantitative easing
Lower interest rates
10% 10%
10%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2%
0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan 27 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 2 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)

When will FED SURVEY
the Federal Reserve take this action?
0% April 20%
10% 30, 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Apr 0%

May 8%

Jun 69%

Jul 4%

Aug 0%
Average:
Sep 16% July 2017

Jan 31
Oct 0% survey:
May 2017
Nov 0%

Dec 2%

Jan '18 0%

Feb 0%

After
Feb '18
0%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 3 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

3. How many times will the Federal Reserve hike rates in
2017?
FED SURVEY
5.00 April 30,

4.50

4.00

3.50
3.16

3.00
2.78
2.50
Average

2.50

1.97
2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 4 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

4. Please rate President Trump's economic policies on a
scale of +2 (very positive) to -2 (very negative) in the
FED
following SURVEY
areas?
April 30,
Very +2.00
positive
Business tax cuts Plans to reduce business regulation

+1.44 +1.46
+1.50 +1.38

+1.40
+1.33 +1.21
Somewhat +1.00
positive
+0.94
+0.87 +0.87

+0.50
Individual tax cuts
Average

Neutral +0.00

-0.50

-0.96 Trade policies -0.96
Somewhat
-1.00
negative
-1.23

-1.50

Very
negative -2.00
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
Surver dates

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 5 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

5. What is your general view of the border adjustment tax
currently being proposed by House Republicans?
FED SURVEY Jan 31 Mar 14
April 30,
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

18%
Positive
17%

30%
Neutral
19%

45%
Negative
60%

Don't know
8%
enough to
have an
4%
opinion

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 6 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

6. Which of the following statements is closest to your view
of fiscal stimulus?
FED SURVEY Jan 31 Mar 14
April 30,
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Not needed
because the
economy is 48%
near full
employment
and it risks
54%
higher inflation

Needed
because the
economy is 40%
operating below
its potential and
inflation risks
39%
are minimal

13%
Don't know/
unsure
7%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 7 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

7. Which of the following has the biggest influence right
now on your forecast for U.S. growth?
FED SURVEY
April10%30, 20%
0% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Expected
Fed policy
13%

Expected
fiscal policy
49%

Both have
an equal 19%
influence

Neither
have much 15%
influence

Don't know/
unsure
4%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 8 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

8. When do you expect, if at all, the following policies will
be enacted by Congress and signed into law by President
Trump? FED SURVEY
April 30,

Survey Date Avg. Forecast

Health care reform Q3 2017
(4% said “never”)

Dodd-Frank reform Q1 2018
(11% said “never”)

Tax cuts Q4 2017
(0% said “never”)

Infrastructure spending hike Q1 2018
(13% said “never”)

GSE
Q3 2018
Fannie and Freddie reform
(33% said “never”)

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 9 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

9. President Trump's tweets will make enacting his
economic policies:
FED SURVEY
0%
April 30,
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Less
likely
47%

More
likely
9%

Neither 38%

Don't
know/ 6%
unsure

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 10 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

10. If it becomes law, what effect would the House
GOP's proposed health care reform bill have on U.S.
economicFED SURVEY
growth?
April
0%
30, 20%
10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Improve
growth 0%
substantially

Improve
growth 38%
somewhat

Have no
effect on 45%
growth

Reduce
economic
growth
13%
somewhat

Reduce
economic
growth
0%
substantially

Don't know/
unsure
4%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 11 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

11. Compared to Obamacare, the House GOP's proposed
health care bill is:
FED SURVEY
0%
April 20%
10%
30, 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Better 38%

Worse 34%

About
the 15%
same

Don't
know/ 13%
unsure

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 12 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

12. Mr. Trump will likely make several appointments to
the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The people he
FEDare
will appoint SURVEY
likely to support:
April 30,
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

46%
Faster
rate 43%
hikes
26%

5%
Slower
rate 20%
hikes
19%

Rate hikes 50%
at about
the same
38%
pace as
other FOMC
members 55%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 13 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

13. Recent stock market gains appears to be mostly
driven by:
FED SURVEY
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
April 30,
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Solid economic 18%
fundamentals,
including a better 26%
corporate
profit outlook 36%

82%
Expectations
for policy changes
72%
from the new
administration
62%

0%

Don't know/
3%
unsure

2%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 14 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

14. The stock market's expectations for Trump
administration policy changes are:
FED SURVEY
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
April 30,
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

56%
Too
56%
optimistic
64%

42%
Realistic 39%

32%

2%
Too
3%
pessimistic
2%

0%
Don't
know/ 3%
unsure
2%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 15 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

15. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018

2,600

2555

2,500

2480 2453
2427
2,400

2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2,200 2234 2242
2200
2158
2,100
2107

2,000

1,900

1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 16 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

16. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year
Treasury note will be on … ?
FED SURVEY
April 30, December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018
4.0%

3.5% 3.44%3.43%
3.37%

3.09%
2.96%
3.0%
2.90%
2.88% 2.88%
2.83%

2.5% 2.58%
2.54%

2.28%2.25%
2.24%2.26%
2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 17 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

17. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
FED SURVEY
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
April 30,
3.0%

2.73%
2.67% 2.70%

2.5%

2.25%
2.17% 2.15%
2.22%
2.07% 2.10%

2.0%
1.87%
1.81%

1.61% 1.61% 1.62% 1.60% 1.78%
1.69%
1.49%
1.5% 1.43%

1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22%

1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%

0.5%

0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 18 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

18. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminalFED
rate?SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%

3.5%

3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04%
2.92%
2.91%
2.85% 2.79% 2.73%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%

2.42% 2.44%

2.29%

2.0%

Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 19 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

19. When do you believe fed funds will reach its
terminal rate?
FED SURVEY
April
Survey Date30, Forecast
August 20 survey Q4 2017

September 16 survey Q3 2017

October 28 survey Q4 2017

December 16 survey Q1 2018

Jan. 27, 2015 survey Q1 2018

March 17 survey Q4 2017

April 28 survey Q1 2018

June 16 survey Q1 2018

July 28 survey Q2 2018

August 25 survey Q3 2018

September 16 survey Q1 2018

October 27 survey Q3 2018

December 15 survey Q1 2018

Jan. 26, 2016 survey Q2 2018

Mar 15 survey Q3 2018

Apr 26 survey Q4 2018

Jun 14 survey Q4 2018

Jul 26 survey Q4 2018

Aug 24 survey Q4 2018

Sep 20 survey Q4 2018

Nov 1 survey Q1 2019

Dec 13 survey Q2 2019

Jan 31, 2017 survey Q2 2019

Mar 14, 2017 survey Q2 2019

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 20 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

20. What is your forecast for the year-over-year
FEDchange
percentage SURVEYin real U.S. GDP for …?
April 30, 2017 2018

3.0%

2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%

2.6% +2.57%
+2.62%

+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41%
2.4%

+2.38%
+2.28%
+2.26%
+2.31%

2.2% +2.25%
+2.24%
+2.21%
+2.16%

2.0%

1.8%
Jan 26
Dec 15 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
'16
2017 +2.43% +2.31% +2.41% +2.21% +2.25% +2.26% +2.24% +2.28% +2.16% +2.57% +2.51% +2.38%
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 21 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

21. Since Trump's election, by how many percentage
FED SURVEY
points have you changed your GDP forecasts for... ?
April 30,
Jan 31 Mar 14
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

+0.24
2017

+0.20

+0.39
2018

+0.39

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 22 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

22. What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for …?
FED SURVEY 2017 2018
April 30,
2.8%

2.64%
2.6%

2.57%

2.50%
2.38%
2.4% 2.36%

2.37%
2.24%
2.20%
2.2% 2.16%
2.12%

2.12% 2.13%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0%
2.02%

1.8%

1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 23 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

23. When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance
sheet to decline?
FED0%SURVEY5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
April 30,
Feb 0%
Mar 2%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Jun 4%
Jul 0%
Aug 2%
Sep 6%
Oct 2%
Nov 0%
Dec 9%
Jan '18 13%
Feb 2%
Mar 11%
Apr 4%
May 0%
Jun 19%
Jul 2%
Aug 0%
Sep 6%
Oct 0%
Nov 0%
Dec 0%
Jan '19 2%
Feb 2%
Mar '19 or later 11%
Never 2%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 24 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

24. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.
economic recovery?
FED SURVEY
April 30,

Terrorist attacks in the

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
European recession/

presidential election
Immigration policy
regulatory policies

Slow wage growth

Protectionist trade
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Outcome of US
financial crisis

Don't know/
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

policies

unsure
Survey

Other
Tax/

U.S.
Date
Apr 30 20% 31% 20% 0% 2% 2% 11% 0%
Jun 18 15% 28% 20% 3% 3% 0% 13% 0%
Jul 30 8% 30% 22% 0% 2% 2% 10% 14% 4%
Sep 17 4% 27% 22% 2% 0% 4% 18% 7% 2%
Oct 29 8% 29% 24% 3% 3% 3% 8% 13% 0%
Dec 17 5% 32% 29% 2% 0% 2% 15% 2% 2%
Jan 28 '14 7% 21% 30% 2% 0% 0% 12% 21% 0%
Mar 18 10% 23% 26% 3% 5% 0% 5% 18% 0%
Apr 28 3% 26% 21% 3% 5% 0% 8% 18% 13% 0%
Jul 29 12% 29% 12% 6% 3% 0% 12% 12% 12% 3%
Sep 16 6% 26% 29% 6% 3% 0% 6% 11% 11% 3%
Oct 28 31% 18% 15% 3% 3% 0% 10% 8% 8% 3%
Dec 16 40% 14% 14% 3% 6% 0% 3% 14% 3% 0%
Jan 27 '15 0% 13% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% 16% 41% 6% 16% 0%
Mar 17 6% 14% 0% 3% 6% 0% 6% 8% 28% 17% 14% 0%
April 28 3% 11% 8% 3% 0% 0% 6% 11% 28% 8% 19% 3%
Jun 16 3% 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 14% 25% 22% 6% 11% 0%
Jul 28 6% 21% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% 6% 29% 9% 9% 0%
Sept 16 0% 16% 2% 0% 4% 0% 0% 8% 45% 8% 14% 2%
Oct 27 0% 8% 5% 3% 8% 0% 8% 13% 41% 10% 5% 0%
Dec 15 0% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% 8% 10% 44% 5% 3% 15% 0%
Jan 26 '16 0% 10% 5% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 44% 8% 0% 23% 3%
Mar 15 5% 21% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% 33% 5% 0% 3% 21% 0%
Apr 26 0% 22% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 7% 36% 9% 0% 7% 11% 2%
Jun 14 0% 28% 5% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 28% 8% 0% 5% 13% 10% 0%
Jul 26 2% 20% 7% 2% 2% 0% 2% 10% 22% 7% 0% 7% 7% 7% 2%
Aug 24 3% 19% 3% 3% 0% 0% 3% 3% 31% 3% 3% 6% 14% 11% 0%
Sep 20 0% 16% 11% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 30% 8% 5% 5% 8% 11% 0%
Nov 1 3% 27% 8% 0% 3% 0% 8% 3% 32% 3% 0% 0% 5% 8% 0%
Dec 13 5% 9% 2% 7% 0% 0% 7% 7% 19% 0% 2% 7% 28% 5% 2%
Jan 31 '17 0% 5% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 15% 0% 0% 0% 51% 10% 0% 0%
Mar 14 0% 7% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 7% 4% 7% 0% 2% 4% 47% 4% 13% 0%

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 25 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

25. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
FED
chance of SURVEY
recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)
April 30,
40%

36.1%

35%
34.0%

30%
28.5% 28.8%

26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.3% 20.4% 21.1%
20%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4%

15.1%
16.2%
15% 15.1% 15.2%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%

10%
Mar 16

Mar 19

Mar 18

Mar 17

Mar 15

Mar 14
Jan 28 '14

Jan 27 '15
Jan 23, '12

Jan 29, '13

April 28

Jan 15 '16

Jan 31 '17
Oct 31

Oct 29

Oct 28
Dec 16

Oct 27
Dec 15
Dec 11

Dec 17

Dec 13
Sept 16

Aug 24
Jul 30

Jun 14
Sep 6

Nov 1
Aug 11, '11

Jul 31

Jun 18

Jul 29

Jun 16
Jul 28

Jul 26
Sep 19

Sep 12

Sep 16

Sep 20
Apr 24

Apr 30

Apr 28

Jan 26

Apr 26

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 26 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

26. What is your primary area of interest?

FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
22%

Currencies
0%
Fixed Income Economics
11% 51%

Equities
16%

Comments:

Marshall Acuff, Managing Director, Silvercrest Asset
Management: With wages likely to continue to rise, expect
businesses to sustain or improve profitability by raising prices.

John Augustine, Chief Investment Officer, Huntington Bank:
What the markets will focus on next week: will the Fed rate hike and
statement be perceived as a 'hawkish hike', 'neutral hike' or 'dovish
hike'?

Jim Bianco, President, Bianco Research: Be careful what you
wish for ... rising rates might not be the bullish event most assume.

Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst, The Lindsey Group: In
waiting for the perfect world to raise interest rates, the Fed is now in
the position they don't want to be in, having to hike quicker than
they want to.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 27 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Robert Brusca, Chief Economist, Fact and Opinion Economics:
Why don’t you survey the PCE? That is what is important for policy.
The PCE and CPIFED SURVEY
have become quite different. So please take the
plunge. ThereApril
are a30,
lot of threats to the U.S. economy. But one of
the questions now is just how well is the economy doing? Really? I
think current momentum should be questioned. There are
expectations of Trump success driving growth. But can that really
explain what we see? As much as the industrial data are improving,
the consumption side has been doing badly. That makes no sense.
So I am having more trouble with the current data than with the
outlook. We have some sense of the quality of what happens ahead,
just not the quantity of it or the actual timing. And then there are all
the geopolitical risks, the uncertainly about oil that is looking dodgy
again. I am looking for the Fed to overdo it. I am very concerned
that productivity is not picking up and that job growth is being driven
by that fact. If so, this is a low-wage growth economy because that's
all you can pay low-productivity workers (low wages). Or call it the
Peggy Lee economy: is that all there is?

Thomas Costerg, Senior Economist, US, Standard Chartered
Bank: On March 15, the Fed will be mostly raising rates because of
the buoyant stock and corporate bond markets. They will probably
keep the door open for a June hike. A June rate hike could still be
derailed by either a drop in the stock market or by oil prices falling
sharply.

John Donaldson, Director of Fixed Income, Haverford Trust
Co.: For the bond market, the Fed statement is all about one word:
"gradual." If that word disappears, bids in the bond market may do
likewise.

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro
Research: Market participants witnessed a FOMC meeting play out
in real time in recent weeks. This was a hike the Fed sought.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 28 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Mike Englund, Chief Economist, Action Economics, LLC: The
surge in business and consumer confidence into 2017 will boost GDP
FEDofSURVEY
growth regardless new legislative initiatives, as the threat of
April 30,
ongoing policy/regulatory headwinds has been removed. Any
infrastructure spending or tax rate reductions will just add to the
updraft.

Robert Fry, Chief Economist, Robert Fry Economics LLC: The
Fed contributed to the housing bubble of the last decade by limiting
itself to quarter-point moves in the federal funds rate. If the Fed
does that again, things will end badly, in either inflation or another
bubble. When it comes to interest rate moves, up or down,
gradualism is bad. Any Fed governor who is too timid to move rates
by more than 25 bp at a time should retire.

Kevin Giddis, Head of Fixed Income Capital Markets, Raymond
James Financial: The Fed has the green light, because the market
has made it so. It doesn't mean that either is correct. Sub-2.0%
growth, with what could be deemed as mild inflation, keeps the
recipe from being complete. As a result of that, any slip-up from the
White House could mean that the economic cake will be half-baked
in 2017.

Constance Hunter, Chief Economist, KPMG LLP: The economic
gains we are seeing today were in train last year. Seventy-seven
consecutive months of jobs growth, slightly higher wages and
greater labor force participation mean the consumer will continue to
be the cornerstone of the recovery in 2017. Ricardian equivalence
dictates that debt-financed tax cuts are not effective at stimulating
growth. The better option would be for the GOP to revive the
Simpson-Bowles recommendations. Though I recognize it was
soundly defeated, it did put us on a path to fiscal sustainability.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 29 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Kurt Karl, Chief Economist, Swiss Re: We could get some
additional growth from prudent tax cuts, looser regulations and
infrastructure FED SURVEY
spending, but if the U.S. becomes highly protectionist,
U.S. and globalApril 30, will be severely curtailed.
growth

John Kattar, Chief Investment Officer, Ardent Asset
Management: The Fed has a window of relatively solid economic
fundamentals, strong markets, and prospectively active fiscal policy.
They need to take advantage of this unlikely gift by normalizing
policy as long as conditions permit.

Ed Keon, Portfolio Manager, Quantitative Management
Associates: The equity rally has been driven by improved earnings
and economic growth as well as expectations for more pro-growth
policies. I think the market will continue to work its way higher, but
valuations are a bit rich now, so we need continued strong earnings
and enactment of pro-growth legislation in 2017 to support further
upward movement.

Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation: A
March rate hike makes it easier for the FOMC to hike rates three
times. I believe that the economy can absorb a few hikes this year,
with the strength of the economy being driven by the strength of
U.S. consumer spending.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 30 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Subodh Kumar, President, Subodh Kumar & Associates: In
matters of substance, changes loom – not least about populism
FED SURVEY
leading to mercantilism. Geopolitical challenges exist in Asia,
primarily KoreaApril
and30,
the South China Sea, Europe, primarily the
frontier with Russia, and the Levant mired in war. The U.S. and
China have economic and political transition challenges enunciated
by the new U.S. administration since January 2017 and at the March
2017 Chinese National People's Congress. U.S. Treasury yields are
up and likely to rise further as the Fed raises rates in a sustained
path, potentially to 3.50% by early 2019. With their yields still closer
to twelve-month lows, junk bonds have risk. With currencies up, so
do German and Japanese bonds. Trade and currency volatility are
likely to add to risk. Markets still seem complacent on quantitative
ease and lately more so about seamless delivery taking place from
the new U.S. administration. For equities, more robust valuation
expansion would occur were expectations chasing up the actual
reports rather than the rote of recent quarters of meeting reduced
expectations being taken as positive. We see salient aspects at work
in the performance of the financials and of index funds. Capital
infusion and business plan confusion in Europe underscore
restructuring as crucial in banks. Even close to a decade after
emergence of crisis and with reform not complete in regulation,
advantages still accrue for the early movers in financial companies.
Fascination with indexation risks underperformance, since to link to
substance it needs active management to survive. Volatility is likely
through 2017 but appears underappreciated at present.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 31 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Guy LeBas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Janney
Montgomery Scott: Immigration is a bigger economic issue than
common wisdom FED SURVEY
holds. The single biggest problem hampering long-
term economic April 30,in the U.S. is sluggish population growth, and
growth
restricting immigration exacerbates that problem. Without
immigration, the working-age population would barely be growing at
all! We won't feel a concrete impact of restricted immigration in any
one quarter or even year, but it pushes down potential expansion
over many years and will serve to further constrain interest rates in
the long run.

Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sethi Financial Group:
The March 10 jobs report showed rapid job growth with a hint of
wage inflation sprinkled in as well. That will cause the Fed to raise
rates four times in 2017, more hikes than the market expects.

Chad Morganlander, Portfolio Manager, Stifel Nicolaus
(Washington Crossing Advisors): Investors should anticipate a
tightening of financial conditions as the Fed increases the
expectation for rate hikes.

James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist, Wells Capital
Management: Many inflation indicators are near levels that will
capture will capture much attention if they are breached. Core CPI
at 2.3% is at cycle highs, the core PCE deflator is only 0.25% below
2% and wage inflation will likely soon jump above 3%. Just a slight
rise in these inflation indicators is likely to significantly heighten
policy official and investor anxieties about inflation and interest rate
risk. I think inflation/interest rate risk is likely to soon become the
primary focus in the economy and the financial markets.

Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene
University: The Fed is now running to catch the train. Despite a
multitude of uncertainties that have blocked past rate hikes, the risk
of moving too slowly has grown increasingly large.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 32 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist and Strategist, Standish
Mellon Asset Management: The medium-term U.S. outlook is
FEDit SURVEY
more binary than has been in a long time. Will the president be
April 30,
able to get legislation passed or not? Success creates a tailwind of
policy impetus. Failure leads to frustration at the White House and
increased intervention.

John Roberts, Director of Research, Hilliard Lyons: After letting
the market dictate policy over the past several years, the Fed seems
to want to take back the decision-making role on rates for itself. The
question is what happens if the market corrects significantly,
certainly possible in light of the current valuation metrics and
euphoria around the new administration and its expected policies,
which seem to be driving the market higher. Any such break, which
could be precipitated if the administration is unable to put in place
the expected policy changes, could force a pause in the
normalization process that the Fed is attempting to engineer.

Merrill Ross, Managing Director, Wunderlich: I think it is
possible that the FOMC could be on the cusp of raising rates more
aggressively and that the market has not incorporated that
possibility into valuations. The strength of the U.S. dollar and
consequent implications for importers (mostly retailers) is
worrisome.

Chris Rupkey, Chief Financial Economist, MUFG: We're all
doomed. Economic growth was strong when the baby boom
generation hit the labor force in the ‘70s and now that their outlook
on life is sinking and they enter their retirement years, their negative
attitudes and reduced spending could bring the entire economy down
with them. Can't wait till they are gone.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 33 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

John Ryding, Chief Economist, RDQ Economics: On the Fed, the
June rate hike depends on the momentum in job growth, which is
FEDatSURVEY
currently running double the pace of labor force growth. On tax
April
policy, the issue 30,
isn't fiscal stimulus but pro-investment tax reform.
The penalty of investing in the U.S. versus overseas is too high with
the current 35% corporate tax rate.

Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and Strategist, Decision
Economics: The U.S. economy looks great. Even better with the
coming fiscal stimulus. The Fed is way behind the curve!

Hank Smith, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Haverford Trust
Company: Regarding question six: the importance of pro-growth
fiscal policy is it will allow the Fed to move to neutral more
successfully.

Richard Steinberg, Chief Investment Officer, Steinberg Global
Asset Management: The stock market has baked in the rhetoric at
18x earnings. We need to see if the rubber meets the road in tax
policy, infrastructure and deregulation. The administration may have
some difficulty with the more conservative wing of the Republican
Party. Trump's full wish list may be diluted somewhat in
compromises.

Diane Swonk, CEO and Founder, DS Economics: It would serve
the Federal Reserve well to truly make every meeting "live." That
means making a move when a press conference isn’t scheduled
and/or following all meetings with a press conference. One of the
biggest mistakes that the Fed could make at this stage of the game
is to lull markets into the kind of spreadsheet predictability on rate
hikes we saw in 2004-06.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 34 of 35
FED SURVEY
March 14, 2017

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist, Wells
Fargo Securities: We continue to see the greatest risk to the
FEDfrom
economy coming SURVEY
the changing policy mix. Monetary policy has
April easy
been exceptionally 30, for a very long time, while fiscal policy has
been on the sidelines. Policy adjustments create risks, as
adjustments may be more abrupt than investors, businesses and
regulators expect. The number one cause of recessions is policy
mistakes. Expansions do not die from old age, they are typically
murdered.

Scott Wren, Senior Global Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo
Investment Institute: We have looked for the S&P 500 to hit its
high for 2017 in the middle portion of the year (i.e., May-June-July)
at, or a bit above, the top end of our 2230-2330 year-end target
range. So here we are a bit above our target range a couple of
months earlier than our analysis suggested back in September of
2016. The SPX is just a touch above what we consider "fair value."
The new administration will have little, if any, influence on the
economic statistics this year. Second-half headwinds for the S&P
500 include concerns about wage inflation (and general inflation) in
2018 and a Fed that might be "behind the curve" next year.

Clare Zempel, Principal, Zempel Strategic: Fiscal policies matter
most for the long run, while monetary policy matters more for the
short term. Corrections can never, ever be ruled out, but stocks
remain undervalued relative to actual and prospective interest rates.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 14, 2017
Page 35 of 35

Master your semester with Scribd & The New York Times

Special offer for students: Only $4.99/month.

Master your semester with Scribd & The New York Times

Cancel anytime.