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Vietnam and the

Philippines

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer


Presentation to Session 5 Our Near
Neighbourhood: Asia-Pacific Update
State of the Region Masterclass
Canberra, 15 March 2017
Vietnam and the Philippines

95 million Vietnamese
102 million Filipinos

VN GDP $200.5 billion


PH GDP $311.7 billion

VN GDP growth 6.1%


PH GDP growth 6.4%

221,000 Vietnamese-Australians
250,000 Filipino-Australians

VN-Australia trade $10.1 billion


PH-Australia trade $ 4.1 billion
Vietnams Strategic Orientation

Russia

France India

USA
Viet Japan
Nam

UK China

Australia
Arms Procurements from Russia

In five years up to 2015,


Vietnam was the eighth largest
importer of arms globally. It has
just taken delivery of its sixth
Enhanced Kilo-class
conventional submarine.
Australia-Vietnam

Regional Security Dialogue (1998)


Senior officials
Opening of Defence Attach Office (1999)
PM Rudd rejects strategic partnership
Comprehensive Partnership (2009)
Defence and security cooperation
Enhancing the Comprehensive
Partnership (2015)
Australia-Vietnam

MOU Defence Cooperation (2010)


Annual Senior Officials talks
Annual Foreign Affairs/Defence Strategic
Dialogue (2012)
Deputy secretary/Vice minister level
Annual Defence Ministers Meeting (2013)
Naval port visits
Australia-Vietnam

Vietnam is emerging as a major regional


strategic player
Supported Australias entry into East Asian
Summit, ADMM Plus
Convergence on many security issues with
Australia
ASEAN-centric regional security
architecture
South China Sea - sea lanes
Australia-Philippines

Visiting Forces Agreement (2007)


Ratified by Philippine Senate 2012
Defence White Paper 2013
Important long-standing defence partner
Comprehensive Partnership (2015)
ADF participates in Balikatan exercise
(2016)
Australia-Philippines

President Rodrigo Duterte


Populist candidate
Missionary joke
Anti-drug campaign
Separation from the United
States
Tilt towards China for
investment
Russian Navy visit
South China Sea Arbitral
1951 Mutual Defence Treaty with US Tribunal
Militarisation of artificial islands
Enhanced Defence Cooperation
Agreement (EDCA)
Australia-Philippines
Defence Cooperation Program

Five Balikpapan-class Landing Craft


Heavy donated to the Philippines Navy
Scarborough Shoal

2012 China invests


Scarborough Shoal

Arbitral Tribunal
Award: traditional
fishing ground

A rock in international
law, 12 nm territorial
sea

Duterte proposes
marine sanctuary
Completing the Strategic Triangle
Scarborough Shoal
China has a major naval base on Hainan
Island

China has military facilities in the Paracels

China has built three 3-km airfields with


reinforced hangars on three artificial islands

A Chinese outpost in the Scarborough


Shoal would complete the strategic
triangle and give China enhanced maritime
domain awareness over the South China
Sea
What Lies Ahead?

Trump Administration uncertainties


Unilateralism
Strengthening regional architecture
Taking up US slack?
South China Sea
Further Chinese militarisation
Code of conduct discussions
Freedom of navigation/operational patrols
What Lies Ahead?

Assisting in strengthening regional


capacity-building for maritime security
Defence cooperation program
Coalition building among like-minded
states
Key partners: Japan, Singapore,
Indonesia, Malaysia + Vietnam and the
Philippines (?); India, South Korea
Vietnam and the
Philippines

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


E-mail: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au