T H E N A T I O N ’ S F I S C A L O U T L O O K

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T H E N E A R - T E R M F I S C A L O U T L O O K








3.6
2.6
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.2
0.6
0.3
-0.3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Actuals Projections
Balancing the Budget
Deficit as a percent of GDP

























1940 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Declining Federal Debt
Debt held by the public as a percent of GDP

















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1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Strong Economy = Strong Receipts
Percent change
--Projections--















1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
10
15
20
25
Receipts Return to Historical Average
Percent of GDP
40-Year Historical Average 18.3%



























































T H E L O N G - T E R M O U T L O O K
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
0
10
20
30
40
Savings from Entitlement Proposals
Total Outlays after Entitlement Savings
Entitlement Savings Will Reduce
Long-Term Fiscal Challenge
Percent of GDP
Total Revenues




































1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Fewer Workers Will Soon
Support More Retirees
Social Security covered workers per beneficiary
Projected date of
trust fund exhaustion
Projected date of trust
fund cash deficit

















































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Publicly Held Debt
Social Security
Medicare
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Social Security and Medicare Unfunded
Obligations Far Exceed Current Debt
Trillions of dollars























































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B U D G E T R E F O R M S


























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Mandatory Spending is Overwhelming
the Rest of the Budget
1962 2006
Discretionary Mandatory Interest
9%
6%
26%
68%
53%
38%
















































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