Qmax Qmax

Ao Ao
(m3/s) (m3/s)
1980 56.00 1993 66.97
1981 160.00 1994 204.80
1982 90.00 1995 23.84
1983 280.00 1996 64.00
1984 152.00 1997 200.00
1985 20.80 1998 850.00
1986 72.00 1999 371.80
1987 64.00 2000 85.83
1988 98.53 2001 66.94
1989 40.00 2002 149.98
1990 22.64 2003 109.46
1991 44.50 2004 42.51
1992 26.02

Para los datos mostrados que corresponden a un registro de caudales

mximos del ro Mala, hallar el caudal mximo correspondiente a T = 100 aos
haciendo uso de la distribucin Gumbel.

166.39 T= 500
140.25 y= 6.214
166.53 K= 4.397
135.84 x = Qmax(T) = 532.30 m3/s
177.79
154.89
452.10
118.34
100.66
102.90
87.00
176.08
264.00
199.11
179.36
163.73
136.47
81.62
32.17
154.07
159.47 Media
84.80 Desv Est
Qmax registrados en la Estacin La Capilla
Ro Mala. (altura del km 84 de la Panam. Sur)
Qmax
Ao
(m3/s)
1940 166.39
1941 140.25
1942 166.53
1943 135.84
1944 177.79
1945 154.89
1946 452.10
1947 118.34
1948 100.66
1949 102.90
1950 87.00
1951 176.08
1952 264.00
1953 199.11
1954 179.36
1955 163.73
1956 136.47
1957 81.62
1958 32.17
1959 154.07
1960 53.46
1961 64.06
1962 169.55
1963 162.73
1964 102.09
1965 165.63
1966 155.80
1967 199.00
1968 22.80
1969 75.98
1970 250.54
1971 120.52
1972 158.00
1973 206.00
1974 207.00
1975 234.00
1976 189.00
1977 196.00
1978 96.90
1979 91.63
1980 65.40
1981 123.00
1982 119.00
1983 200.00
1984 380.00
1985 95.53
 1986 93.30
1987 68.72
1988 49.20
1989 118.00
Media 148.44
Desv.st 78.86
Clculo de la avenida centenaria (segn Gumbel)
T= 100.00 aos
y= 4.600
K= 3.138
x = (Qmax (T)) = 395.92 m3/s
Clculo de valores mximos asociados a
diferentes perodos de retorno

T y Qmax
25 3.199 309.71
50 3.902 352.97
100 4.600 395.92
AO Qmax xi=logQmax (xi-x(raya)) (I)^3
(I)
1940 166.39 2.22113 0.10987 0.00133
1941 140.25 2.14690 0.03564 0.00005
1942 166.53 2.22149 0.11023 0.00134
1943 135.84 2.13303 0.02177 0.00001
1944 177.79 2.24991 0.13865 0.00267
1945 154.89 2.19002 0.07876 0.00049
1946 452.10 2.65523 0.54397 0.16097
1947 118.34 2.07313 -0.03813 -0.00006
1948 100.66 2.00286 -0.10840 -0.00127
1949 102.90 2.01242 -0.09884 -0.00097
1950 87.00 1.93952 -0.17174 -0.00507
1951 176.08 2.24571 0.13445 0.00243
1952 264.00 2.42160 0.31034 0.02989
1953 199.11 2.29909 0.18783 0.00663
1954 179.36 2.25373 0.14247 0.00289
1955 163.73 2.21413 0.10287 0.00109
1956 136.47 2.13504 0.02378 0.00001
1957 81.62 1.91180 -0.19946 -0.00794
1958 32.17 1.50745 -0.60381 -0.22014
1959 154.07 2.18772 0.07646 0.00045
1960 53.46 1.72803 -0.38323 -0.05628
1961 64.06 1.80659 -0.30467 -0.02828
1962 169.55 2.22930 0.11804 0.00164
1963 162.73 2.21147 0.10021 0.00101
1964 102.09 2.00898 -0.10228 -0.00107
1965 165.63 2.21914 0.10788 0.00126
1966 155.80 2.19257 0.08131 0.00054
1967 199.00 2.29885 0.18759 0.00660
1968 22.80 1.35793 -0.75332 -0.42751
1969 75.98 1.88070 -0.23056 -0.01226
1970 250.54 2.39888 0.28762 0.02379
1971 120.52 2.08106 -0.03020 -0.00003
1972 158.00 2.19866 0.08740 0.00067
1973 206.00 2.31387 0.20261 0.00832
1974 207.00 2.31597 0.20471 0.00858
1975 234.00 2.36922 0.25796 0.01716
1976 189.00 2.27646 0.16520 0.00451
1977 196.00 2.29226 0.18100 0.00593
1978 96.90 1.98632 -0.12494 -0.00195
1979 91.63 1.96204 -0.14922 -0.00332
1980 65.40 1.81558 -0.29568 -0.02585
1981 123.00 2.08991 -0.02135 -0.00001
1982 119.00 2.07555 -0.03571 -0.00005
1983 200.00 2.30103 0.18977 0.00683
1984 380.00 2.57978 0.46852 0.10285
1985 95.53 1.98014 -0.13112 -0.00225
1986 93.30 1.96988 -0.14138 -0.00283
1987 68.72 1.83708 -0.27418 -0.02061
1988 49.20 1.69197 -0.41929 -0.07372
1989 118.00 2.07188 -0.03938 -0.00006
Media = 2.11126 0.00000 -0.49159
Desv. St. = 0.24380
Sesgo = -0.7212 3
K(G=-0.7) = 1.806 G=
n ( x i x )
K(G=-0.8) = 1.733 ( n1 )( n2 ) 3
K= 1.791
x= 2.54778
Qmax(T) = 353.01
Ao Qmax Clculo de valores mximos asociados
1940 166.39 diferentes perodos de retorno
1941 140.25
1942 166.53 T p
1943 135.84 25 0.040
1944 177.79 50 0.020
1945 154.89 100 0.010
1946 452.10
1947 118.34
1948 100.66
1949 102.90
1950 87.00
1951 176.08
1952 264.00
1953 199.11
1954 179.36
1955 163.73
1956 136.47
1957 81.62
1958 32.17
1959 154.07
1960 53.46
1961 64.06
1962 169.55
1963 162.73
1964 102.09
1965 165.63
1966 155.80
1967 199.00
1968 22.80
1969 75.98
1970 250.54
1971 120.52
1972 158.00
1973 206.00
1974 207.00
1975 234.00
1976 189.00
1977 196.00
1978 96.90
1979 91.63
1980 65.40
1981 123.00
1982 119.00
1983 200.00
1984 380.00
1985 95.53
1986 93.30
1987 68.72
1988 49.20
 1989 118.00
Media 148.44
Desv.st 78.86

T= 100 aos
p = 1/T = 0.01
F(z) = 0.99
z= 2.33
x = Qmax = 332.19 m3/s
e valores mximos asociados a
perodos de retorno

F(z) z Qmax
0.96 1.75 286.45
0.98 2.054 310.43
0.99 2.323 331.64
Ao Qmax log(Qmax)
1940 166.39 2.22113
1941 140.25 2.14690
1942 166.53 2.22149
1943 135.84 2.13303
1944 177.79 2.24991
1945 154.89 2.19002
1946 452.10 2.65523
1947 118.34 2.07313
1948 100.66 2.00286
1949 102.90 2.01242
1950 87.00 1.93952
1951 176.08 2.24571
1952 264.00 2.42160
1953 199.11 2.29909
1954 179.36 2.25373
1955 163.73 2.21413
1956 136.47 2.13504
1957 81.62 1.91180
1958 32.17 1.50745
1959 154.07 2.18772
1960 53.46 1.72803
1961 64.06 1.80659
1962 169.55 2.22930
1963 162.73 2.21147
1964 102.09 2.00898
1965 165.63 2.21914
1966 155.80 2.19257
1967 199.00 2.29885
1968 22.80 1.35793
1969 75.98 1.88070
1970 250.54 2.39888
1971 120.52 2.08106
1972 158.00 2.19866
1973 206.00 2.31387
1974 207.00 2.31597
1975 234.00 2.36922
1976 189.00 2.27646
1977 196.00 2.29226
1978 96.90 1.98632
1979 91.63 1.96204
1980 65.40 1.81558
1981 123.00 2.08991
1982 119.00 2.07555
1983 200.00 2.30103
1984 380.00 2.57978
1985 95.53 1.98014
1986 93.30 1.96988
1987 68.72 1.83708
1988 49.20 1.69197
 1989 118.00 2.07188
Media 2.11126
Desv.st 0.24380

T= 100 aos
p = 1/T = 0.01
F(z) = 0.99
z= 2.33
x= 2.679
Qmax(T) = 477.87 m3/s
RESUMEN DE RESULTADOS (Qmax)

T (aos) Gumbel Log. P. Normal Qmax

25 309.71 294.15 286.45 296.77
50 352.97 322.78 310.43 328.73
100 395.92 348.01 331.64 358.52

Considerando un periodo de retorno relativamente

conservador, del orden de 100 aos, se adoptar
un caudal mximo de diseo igual a 360 m3/s.
 CAUDALES MAXIMOS ANUALES EN EL RIO MALA (ESTACION LA CAPILLA)

500.00

450.00
Qmax (m3/s)

400.00

350.00

300.00

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
1944

1946

1948

1950

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1968

1970

1972

1974

1980

1982

1984
1940

1942

1952

1966

1976

1978

1986

1988
Ao