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AROMATICS MARKET REPORT NORTH AMERICA March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 S U M M
AROMATICS MARKET REPORT NORTH AMERICA
AROMATICS MARKET REPORT NORTH AMERICA

AROMATICS MARKET REPORT NORTH AMERICA

AROMATICS MARKET REPORT NORTH AMERICA March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 S U M M A
AROMATICS MARKET REPORT NORTH AMERICA March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 S U M M A
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 S U M M A R Y

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

SUMMARY

CONTENTS/LINKS PRICE FORECAST 2 CRUDE AND UPSTREAM 5 TOLUENE AND XYLENES 7 BENZENE 10 STYRENE
CONTENTS/LINKS PRICE FORECAST 2 CRUDE AND UPSTREAM 5 TOLUENE AND XYLENES 7 BENZENE 10 STYRENE
CONTENTS/LINKS PRICE FORECAST 2 CRUDE AND UPSTREAM 5 TOLUENE AND XYLENES 7 BENZENE 10 STYRENE

CONTENTS/LINKS

PRICE FORECAST

2

CRUDE AND UPSTREAM

5

TOLUENE AND XYLENES

7

BENZENE

10

STYRENE

15

STYRENE DERIVATIVES

19

CYCLOHEXANE

20

CUMENE

22

PHENOL

24

PARAXYLENE

26

PTA

28

PET

30

ORTHOXYLENE

33

U.S. PRICE PAGE

34

W.E. PRICE PAGE

35

ASIA PRICE PAGE

36

Client Services Representative

Stephanie Kirby - Aromatics SKirby@cmaiglobal.com

1-(281)752-3258

Mollie Pampell - Aromatics MPampell@cmaiglobal.com

1-(281)752-3260

INTERNET ACCESS www.cmaiglobal.com email - AMR@CMAIglobal.com

CONSULTANTS

Mark A. Fisler Mfisler@cmaiglobal.com Toluene/Mixed Xylenes

R. Chase Willett Cwillett@cmaiglobal.com Paraxylene/Terephthalates/

Polyester/Orthoxylene

Marc Laughlin Mlaughlin@cmaiglobal.com Cumene/Phenol/Acetone

Simon Palmer Spalmer@cmaiglobal.com Benzene/Toluene/Mixed Xylenes

©Copyright CMAI 2010 All Rights Reserved

Paraxylene & Upstream Overview

Weekly History

Monthly Forecast

   
   

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

Toluene Blend Value

Toluene Spot Nit.

MX Spot

PX Spot

~

The recent bearish influence of Asia on the U.S. BTX markets has been on a collision course with the seasonal support provided as domestic gasoline prices appreciate. In March we have seen the first minor skirmishes and thus far (and not unexpectedly) U.S. gasoline has arguably prevailed. Mar- gins over gasoline have predictably been squeezed and BTX prices are now on a more normal upward course. Despite domestic support, the track re- mains somewhat subdued as the derivative export markets lack the whole- sale confidence necessary to sustain the cost-push and regain some mar- gin. High domestic olefins prices are also making the job of exporting derivatives much more challenging but there are signs that prices may be moderating slightly which should provide support some pick up in rates.

Benzene & Derivatives Overview

Dollars Per Metric Ton

Weekly History Monthly Forecast
Weekly History
Monthly Forecast

Benzene Spot

Cumene Formula

Phenol Wtd. Avg.

Styrene Spot

~

Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot ~   This report is for the exclusive use
 
This report is for the exclusive use of the client company. Distribution outside of the

This report is for the exclusive use of the client company. Distribution outside of the client company is strictly

Distribution outside of the client company is strictly The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion
Distribution outside of the client company is strictly The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion

The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and are based on information collected within the public sector and on assessments by CMAI staff. CMAI MAKES NO GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY AND ASSUMES NO LIABILITY AS TO THEIR USE.

North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST

North America Aromatics Market Report

PRICE FORECAST

Current Prices

   

Assumptions

 

WTI

Naphtha

Natural Gas

 

North America Gasoline Spot Average

Exchange Rate

United States

Crude Oil

spot average

 

Toluene

$/bbl

Cts/Gal

$/MMBTU

Cts/Gal

 

Cts/Gal

 

$/€

Cts/Gal

Notes

 

FOB USGC

Deliv. USGC

Premium FOB USGC

Regular FOB USGC

   

blend value

09

Nov

78.0

187.2

4.4

200.0

 

193.0

 

1.49

 

228.2

Dec

74.5

188.4

4.6

195.4

189.3

1.46

218.2

10

Jan

78.3

197.9

5.9

207.7

201.6

1.43

231.0

Feb

76.5

193.2

5.4

202.2

196.9

1.38

224.7

Mar

81.0

208.2

4.9

224.0

213.2

1.36

255.4

09

Q2

59.5

153.0

3.5

179.2

 

167.2

 

1.36

 

210.8

Q3

68.2

170.1

3.4

189.0

181.0

1.43

214.4

Q4

76.2

185.5

4.3

198.2

190.6

1.48

226.4

10

Q1

78.6

199.8

5.4

211.3

203.9

1.39

237.0

   

benzene

 

Toluene

Mixed xylenes

US

W Europe

NEA

 

US

W Europe

NEA

 

U.S.

W Europe

NEA

Contract

Spot

Contract

Spot

Spot

Spot

Spot

Spot

Spot

Spot

Spot

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

€/t

$/t

$/t

Cts/Gal

$/t

$/t

Cts/Gal

$/t

$/t

Notes

FOB USGC

FOB USGC

Monthly FOB/CIF WE

FOB/CIF WE

FOB S. KOREA

 

Nitration

Nitration

FOB S. KOREA

FOB Houston, TX FOB Rotterdam

FOB S. KOREA

09

Nov

285.0

286.8

547.0

831.0

861.8

 

254.7

773.0

806.6

 

256.9

781.0

846.3

Dec

298.0

322.5

570.0

953.0

960.2

272.5

814.0

873.7

283.0

830.0

896.5

10

Jan

355.0

373.5

759.0

1091.8

1040.6

290.2

880.6

930.7

303.8

878.0

943.8

Feb

369.0

352.3

723.0

1007.0

945.0

273.2

844.0

862.2

277.1

860.0

861.9

Mar

343.0

329.0

741.0

995.0

890.0

276.0

822.0

843.0

285.0

831.0

869.7

09

Q2

197.7

226.8

448.3

687.1

661.6

 

214.5

642.3

660.7

 

226.6

743.7

750.5

Q3

312.0

313.9

658.7

895.0

815.1

250.1

751.3

768.0

245.8

813.0

813.1

Q4

281.0

294.4

540.7

870.7

860.8

258.0

777.3

805.5

258.9

783.7

835.7

10

Q1

355.7

351.6

741.0

1031.3

958.5

279.8

848.9

878.6

288.6

856.3

891.8

 

Cyclohexane

Cumene

Phenol

Styrene

Polystyrene

 

US

 

US

US

 

US Net Industry Avg

   

US

Contract

Delta

Monthly

Monthly

 

Contract

Spot

 

Contract

Spot

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Lb

Cts/Lb

Cts/Lb

Cts/Lb

Cts/Lb

Cts/Lb

Cts/Lb

Notes

FOB USGC

to Benzene

 

Formula

Avg Acq.

 

FOB US

FOB USGC

 

High Heat

High Heat

09

Nov

273.6

-11.4

 

43.01

48.12

 

54.50

46.56

45.25

 

99.00

61.75

Dec

285.5

-12.5

46.50

50.03

58.75

50.68

51.34

99.00

63.00

10

Jan

339.7

-15.3

51.77

59.05

67.00

59.15

59.00

106.50

71.00

Feb

348.6

-20.4

55.39

60.96

68.25

60.71

59.19

114.00

78.00

Mar

324.0

-19.0

52.70

60.96

 

68.25

60.69

59.11

 

113.00

76.00

09

Q2

197.2

-0.4

 

29.49

36.15

 

46.33

37.47

39.42

 

85.33

52.32

Q3

291.1

-20.9

45.56

51.49

56.42

48.48

48.58

97.33

61.80

Q4

269.6

-11.4

43.76

47.58

55.33

47.27

47.05

98.00

61.52

10

Q1

337.4

-18.2

53.29

59.28

 

67.83

60.18

59.10

 

111.17

75.00

   

Paraxylene

 

PTA

DMT

PET

Orthoxylene

 

PAN

US

W Europe

NEA

US

 

US

US

 

US

 

US

Contract

Spot

Spot

Spot

Contract

Contract

Contract Avg.

Contract

Spot

Contract

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

$/t

$/t

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

 

Cts/lb

Notes

Delivered

FOB USGC

Delivered

C&F / NE Asia

Formula

 

Delivered

Delivered

Monthly

FOB US

 

FOB Frt Eq

09

Nov

47.25

42.72

933.0

1005.0

44.17

 

48.51

73.75

42.00

0.00

 

49.50

Dec

52.25

48.72

1031.0

1105.0

47.52

51.77

76.75

44.00

0.00

54.00

Jan

53.75

46.68

1063.0

1135.0

48.82

53.33

79.75

48.00

0.00

56.00

10

Feb

52.00

45.10

1004.0

1100.0

47.65

52.33

81.25

47.00

0.00

60.00

Mar

50.50

44.53

1000.0

1065.0

46.65

51.44

81.25

47.00

0.00

59.00

09

Q2

47.83

45.09

949.0

1005.0

44.06

 

45.70

73.00

37.50

0.00

 

47.17

Q3

49.83

43.73

918.7

1058.3

45.47

47.92

76.58

40.00

0.00

51.83

Q4

47.08

43.15

931.3

998.3

44.05

48.44

74.50

41.17

0.00

51.83

10

Q1

52.08

45.44

1022.3

1100.0

47.71

52.37

80.75

47.33

0.00

58.33

 

General Notes: see page 4

 
unsettled
unsettled

The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.

The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 2

The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.
North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST

North America Aromatics Market Report

PRICE FORECAST

   

UnitedStates Price Forecast - benzene andDerivatives

 
 

Assumptions

 

Crude Oil

Naphtha

Natural Gas

 

Gasoline

Toluene Blend Value Cts/Gal

 

Exchange Rates

$/bbl

$/bbl

Cts/Gal

$/MMBTU

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

$/€

Notes

WTI

Dubai

Spot Avg.FOBUSGC

Deliv. USGC

PremiumFOBUSGC

Regular FOBUSGC

   

10 Q1

78.6

75.7

199.8

5.4

211.3

203.9

237.0

 

1.390

 

Q2

79.2

76.4

198.6

4.4

223.8

211.3

257.0

1.364

Q3

79.2

75.9

195.9

4.2

214.4

205.7

241.4

1.364

Q4

78.9

75.4

192.4

4.8

202.8

197.7

225.8

1.319

11 Q1

79.3

76.0

190.1

5.4

207.4

199.9

234.3

1.289

 

Q2

80.2

77.0

186.4

5.5

217.2

204.9

249.5

1.277

 

2008

99.5

93.4

238.6

9.0

260.4

248.7

296.7

 

1.464

2009

61.7

61.7

156.0

4.0

174.7

165.1

203.2

1.390

2010

79.0

75.9

196.7

4.7

213.1

204.7

240.3

1.359

2011

80.4

77.0

190.8

5.5

211.2

202.7

238.5

1.271

 

benzene

HDA

Pygas

Toluene

Cyclohexane

 

Phenol

Contract

Spot

CashCost

CashCost

CashCost

Spot

Contract

Hydrogen

Avg. Acq.

CashCost

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

$/t

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Notes

FOBUSGC

FOBUSGC

6

7

8

Nitration

Formula

9

 

10

10

Apr

332.0

337.0

378.6

311.2

298.6

283.0

301.6

1082.5

56.13

49.46

May

340.0

343.0

380.1

313.4

294.5

285.0

309.5

1064.1

57.22

50.62

Jun

345.0

342.0

372.6

312.3

286.2

285.0

313.4

1055.0

57.89

51.61

Jul

340.0

333.0

361.7

310.8

271.9

281.0

315.9

1018.3

57.21

51.01

Aug

330.0

324.0

342.8

295.2

260.1

275.0

305.1

1009.1

55.89

49.91

Sep

321.0

324.0

337.8

290.6

252.8

272.0

300.7

999.9

54.70

48.83

 

2008

357.3

345.1

369.5

363.6

296.3

307.2

351.8

1738.2

64.15

57.13

2009

228.1

240.0

268.1

257.9

153.6

220.8

224.3

826.5

40.44

34.45

2010

334.8

332.4

352.1

297.3

276.3

276.8

312.3

1056.1

56.61

50.53

2011

320.2

319.8

342.5

297.1

268.3

269.6

306.8

1193.8

56.32

50.06

   

Mixedxylenes

 

Styrene

Polystyrene

 

Contract

Spot

CashCost

Contract

Spot

CashCost

Contract

Spot

CashCost

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Notes

FOB Houston, TX

FOB USGC

11

FOB USGC

FOBUSGC

12

High Heat

High Heat

13

10

Apr

 

281.0

291.0

269.7

65.00

56.21

53.78

108.00

72.00

65.81

May

287.0

292.0

272.9

64.00

55.93

53.50

107.00

71.00

65.79

Jun

288.0

287.0

272.9

63.00

55.20

52.77

84.00

67.00

64.81

Jul

283.0

277.0

266.3

62.00

54.00

51.29

83.00

66.00

63.83

Aug

273.0

279.0

254.0

61.00

53.00

49.96

82.00

65.00

62.85

Sep

275.0

286.0

246.7

61.00

53.00

50.25

82.00

65.00

62.84

 

2008

 

303.5

311.9

319.6

73.15

63.24

59.81

108.63

79.30

73.62

2009

221.0

231.2

217.0

49.63

41.47

36.81

89.67

55.37

49.62

2010

278.3

283.0

255.3

63.79

55.55

52.96

93.96

69.25

65.30

2011

275.3

278.7

255.0

62.00

53.42

51.10

83.50

66.42

64.17

General Notes: see page 4

The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.

The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 3

The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.
North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST

North America Aromatics Market Report

PRICE FORECAST

UnitedStates Price Forecast - xylenes andDerivatives

   

Assumptions

 
 

CrudeOil

Naphtha

Natural Gas

 

Gasoline

 

TolueneBlendValue

ExchangeRates

$/bbl

$/bbl

Cts/Gal

$/MMBTU

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

$/€

Notes

WTI

Dubai

Spot Avg. FOBUSGC

Deliv. USGC

PremiumFOBUSGC

Regular FOBUSGC

Based on 91 and 95 RON gasoline

 

10 Q1

78.6

75.7

199.8

5.4

211.3

 

203.9

237.0

1.390

Q2

79.2

76.4

198.6

4.4

223.8

211.3

257.0

1.364

Q3

79.2

75.9

195.9

4.2

214.4

205.7

241.4

1.364

Q4

78.9

75.4

192.4

4.8

202.8

197.7

225.8

1.319

11 Q1

79.3

76.0

190.1

5.4

207.4

199.9

234.3

1.289

Q2

80.2

77.0

186.4

5.5

217.2

204.9

249.5

1.277

2008

99.5

93.4

238.6

9.0

260.4

 

248.7

296.7

1.464

2009

61.7

61.7

156.0

4.0

174.7

165.1

203.2

1.390

2010

79.0

75.9

196.7

4.7

213.1

204.7

240.3

1.359

2011

80.4

77.0

190.8

5.5

211.2

202.7

238.5

1.271

 

Mixedxylenes

Paraxylene

 

PTA

PET

Orthoxylene

MEg

Contract

Margin

Contract

Margin

Contract

CashCost

Contract

CashCost

Contract

Delta

Contract

Margin

Cts/Gal

Cts/Gal

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Cts/lb

Notes

FOB Houston, TX

11

 

14

   

FOB

OXE/Mkt xylenes

 

10

Apr

281.0

16.8

52.00

0.31

47.98

39.78

82.75

63.66

48.00

9.22

48.53

13.53

May

287.0

19.6

54.25

1.43

49.49

41.10

80.75

62.97

48.50

8.89

40.37

9.15

Jun

288.0

20.5

56.50

3.35

51.00

42.40

80.50

62.93

49.00

9.25

37.19

7.33

Jul

283.0

22.1

54.00

1.84

49.32

40.82

77.75

60.68

48.00

8.94

33.57

8.21

Aug

273.0

24.4

52.00

1.58

47.98

39.58

76.25

59.60

47.00

9.32

33.57

8.44

Sep

275.0

33.6

49.50

-1.08

46.31

38.04

75.00

58.29

47.00

9.05

34.47

7.29

 

2008

303.5

-8.2

57.88

0.56

52.70

45.58

87.23

73.63

51.13

9.24

53.34

19.76

2009

221.0

9.3

45.83

3.14

43.11

35.74

72.81

55.75

37.92

7.42

31.68

11.41

2010

278.3

28.6

52.02

0.63

47.92

39.87

78.27

61.40

47.42

9.02

39.12

9.62

2011

275.3

26.5

52.92

1.29

48.61

40.94

76.63

61.67

47.04

9.04

35.91

9.01

General Notes:

1. All contract prices are on a delivered basis before discounts.

2. CMAI does not normally publish contract prices when discussions are actively in progress.

3. Prices relate to North American markets.

4. Since Q1 2006, the OX quarterly price is the average of the three monthly prices.

5. Highlighted prices indicate those that have not yet settled as of the time of writing and are therefore subject to change.

6. HDA Cash Cost with Toluene at Chemical

7. HDA Cash Cost with Toluene at Blend Value

8. Pygas cash costs with Raffinate at Market.

9. Cash cost of hydrogen production based on steam reforming of natural gas.

10. Phenol cash cost is based on non-integrated business.

11. Mixed Xylenes cash cost calculated on extraction basis.

12. Styrene cash cost based on conventional EB / SM technology

13. Polystyrene Cash Cost is for High Heat Crystal on a delivered basis.

14. Paraxylene margin is on a pre-tax, nonintegrated basis

15. MEG margin is for fibre grade, contract sales on an non-integrated basis

16. Margins are on a cash cost before tax basis

These price forecasts are stricly the opinion of the staff of CMAI, and are based on information in the public sector. CMAI makes no warantee or guarantee as to their use. CMAI does not normally publish price forecasts when discussions are in progress. The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI personnel.

decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI personnel. March

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 4

decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI personnel. March
North America Aromatics Market Report CRUDE AND UPSTREAM

North America Aromatics Market Report

CRUDE AND UPSTREAM

 

North America

 

NYMEXCRUDEOIL

18-Feb-10

25-Feb-10

 

4-Mar-10

11-Mar-10

18-Mar-10

Current Month

$/bbl

77.39

79.68

 

80.84

82.00

82.29

cts/gal

184.27

189.72

192.48

195.24

195.93

US$/MT

530.22

545.91

553.86

561.81

563.80

U.S. Crude and Crack Spreads

Cents Per Gallon 450 Forecast 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-05
Cents Per Gallon
450
Forecast
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
WTI
3/2/1 Crack
Source: Purvin & Gertz
~

Week-Ending Crude Oil Stocks

-000,000- Barrels For Week Ending: March 12, 2010 385 365 345 325 305 285 265
-000,000- Barrels
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
385
365
345
325
305
285
265
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
245
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Five-Year Range
2008
2009
2010
~

NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Strip

Dollars Per Barrel 86 Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Purvin & Gertz 84 82 80
Dollars Per Barrel
86
Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Purvin & Gertz
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
February-10
June-10
October-10
February-11
CMAI Forecast
March Contract Expiration
February Contract Expiration
~

U.S. Refinery Throughput

-000,000- Barrels Per Day 17 16 15 14 13 12 For Week Ending: March 12,
-000,000- Barrels Per Day
17
16
15
14
13
12
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
11
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
5-Year Range
2008
2009
2010
~
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
 

North America

 

NAPHTHA

February Average

March Average

REFORMATE

February Average

March Average

Price

US$/MT

685.96

739.26

Price

US$/MT

739.35

802.00

Delta

US$/MT

+ 53.30

(+7.77%)

Delta

US$/MT

+ 62.65

(+8.47%)

USGC Naphtha and Reformate Differentials Cents Per Gallon 125 Forecast 100 75 50 25 0
USGC Naphtha and Reformate Differentials
Cents Per Gallon
125
Forecast
100
75
50
25
0
-25
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Naphtha over WTI Crude
100 RON Reformate over Naphtha
Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI
~
U.S. Naphtha Cracking Margins Cents Per Pound 30 Forecast 25 20 15 10 5 0
U.S. Naphtha Cracking Margins
Cents Per Pound
30
Forecast
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Jan-2008
Jul-2008
Jan-2009
Jul-2009
Jan-2010
Jul-2010
Jan-2011
Jul-2011
Ethylene Margin from Naphtha
Naphtha Delta to Unleaded Regular
~
Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 5

from Naphtha Naphtha Delta to Unleaded Regular ~ Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI March 19, 2010
North America Aromatics Market Report CRUDE AND UPSTREAM

North America Aromatics Market Report

CRUDE AND UPSTREAM

 

North America

 

GASOLINE

18-Feb-10

25-Feb-10

 

4-Mar-10

11-Mar-10

18-Mar-10

Reg. Unleaded

cts/gal

192.87

206.95

 

206.56

216.02

215.56

US$/MT

684.68

734.65

733.27

766.89

765.24

Prem. Unleaded cts/gal US$/MT

197.28

212.06

 

218.21

226.22

225.68

692.44

744.31

765.90

794.05

792.12

U.S. Crude and Gasoline Prices

Dollars Per Barrel Cents Per Gallon 100 238 Forecast 95 226 90 214 85 202
Dollars Per Barrel
Cents Per Gallon
100
238
Forecast
95
226
90
214
85
202
80
190
75
179
WTI Crude Oil
RUL Gasoline
70
167
PUL Gasoline
65
155
Source: Purvin and Gertz
60
143
Sep-2009 Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 15 36 12 29 9 21 6 14 3 7
Sep-2009
Dec-2009
Mar-2010
Jun-2010
Sep-2010
15
36
12
29
9
21
6
14
3
7
0
0
RUL Gasoline to WTI Crude Oil Spread
PUL Gasoline to RUL Gasoline Spread
~

U.S. Daily Gasoline Price History 2005-2010

Cents Per Gallon 440 400 NYMEX USGC CASH 360 320 280 240 200 160 120
Cents Per Gallon
440
400
NYMEX
USGC CASH
360
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10

~

~ -000,000- Barrels Implied Demand, U.S. Refined Products -000,000- Barrels Per Day (Distillate) Per Day
~
-000,000- Barrels
Implied Demand, U.S.
Refined Products
-000,000- Barrels
Per Day (Distillate)
Per Day (Gasoline)
10.0
6.5
9.5
6.0
9.0
5.5
8.5
5.0
8.0
4.5
7.5
4.0
7.0
3.5
6.5
3.0
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
6.0
2.5
January
April
July
October
Gasoline, 5-Year Range
Distillate, 5-Year Range
Gasoline, 2009
Gasoline, 2010
Distillate, 2009
Distillate, 2010

U.S. Motor Gasoline Production

-000,000- Barrels Per Day (Four-Week Moving Average) For Week Ending: March 12, 2010 9.5 9.0
-000,000- Barrels Per Day
(Four-Week Moving Average)
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
7.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Five-Year Range
2008
2009
2010
~
USGC Naphtha to BTX Spreads Cents Per Gallon 340 Forecast 320 300 280 260 240
USGC Naphtha to BTX Spreads
Cents Per Gallon
340
Forecast
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
Sep-2009
Dec-2009
Mar-2010
Jun-2010
Sep-2010
Naphtha Prices
Weight-Average BTX Prices
Reformate Prices
~
U.S. Motor Gasoline Inventory -000,000- Barrels For Week Ending: March 12, 2010 245 235 225
U.S. Motor Gasoline Inventory
-000,000- Barrels
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
245
235
225
215
205
195
185
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
175
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
~

Five-Year Range

2008

2009

2010

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 6

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ~ Five-Year Range 2008 2009 2010 March 19,
North America Aromatics Market Report TOLUENE AND XYLENES

North America Aromatics Market Report

TOLUENE AND XYLENES

 

NorthAmerica

 

SPOTTOLUENE

18-Feb-10

25-Feb-10

 

4-Mar-10

 

11-Mar-10

18-Mar-10

Current Month

cts/gal

269.63

-

274.00

277.80

-

284.30

n

273.20

-

276.30

 

269.90

-

273.40

273.00

-

276.00

March

US$/MT

818.8

-

832.0

843.6

-

863.3

n

829.6

-

839.0

819.6

-

830.2

829.0

-

838.1

FollowingMonth cts/gal

 

-

 

-

 

274.50

-

279.40

 

272.00

-

275.50

274.20

-

277.50

April

US$/MT

0.0

-

0.0

0.0

-

0.0

833.6

-

848.4

826.0

-

836.6

832.6

-

842.7

SPOTMIXEDXYLENE

             

Current Month

cts/gal

271.00

-

278.63

279.20

-

284.30

 

271.00

-

275.90

 

270.80

-

273.60

272.90

-

277.10

March

US$/MT

824.5

-

847.7

849.5

-

865.0

824.5

-

839.4

823.9

-

832.4

830.3

-

843.1

FollowingMonth cts/gal

 

-

 

-

 

271.90

-

277.30

n

273.50

-

273.50

275.00

-

278.90

April

US$/MT

-

-

827.3

-

843.7

n

832.1

-

832.1

836.7

-

848.6

Toluene Regional Pricing 2007-2010

U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400
U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
~
USG
WEP
NEA

USGC Spot Toluene and Mixed Xylenes Volumes, 2009-2010

-000- Barrels

1600 * Volumes for March are on a month-to-date basis. 1400 1200 1000 800 600
1600
* Volumes for March are on a month-to-date basis.
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
M-09 A-09
M-09 J-09
J-09
A-09
S-09
O-09 N-09
D-09
J-10
F-10
M-10
Toluene, Nitration-Grade
Toluene, Commercial-Grade
Mixed Xylenes, Spot
~

PRICES AND SPREADS

U.S. Gulf Coast Mixed Xylene Daily Pricing Versus MOGAS Blend Value 2008-2010

Cents Per Gallon 520 480 440 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80
Cents Per Gallon
520
480
440
400
360
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
~
MXY Spot
MXY CP
MX Blend Value
North America Toluene and Mixed Xylene Production Capacity Losses 2010 14% 12% 10% 8% 6%
North America Toluene and Mixed Xylene Production
Capacity Losses 2010
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
TOL
MXY
~

Seasonal trends have begun to take shape in toluene and xylenes markets over the course of March. While prices stagnated for most this month, energy surged ahead, with WTI crude oil gaining six percent so far on February prices and RBOB gasoline prices gaining thirteen percent. This has had the effect of considerably redcucing the margins that producers had from extracting aromatics out of reformate. As prices for gasoline have increased, blend values for aromatics have gone up noticeably, though, trending very seasonally. CMAI’s Benchmark Toluene Blend Value price has matched gasoline’s increase of thirteen percent month-to-date.

Value price has matched gasoline’s increase of thirteen percent month-to-date. March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 7

Value price has matched gasoline’s increase of thirteen percent month-to-date. March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308
North America Aromatics Market Report TOLUENE AND XYLENES

North America Aromatics Market Report

TOLUENE AND XYLENES

Toluene Spread over Octane

Cents Per Gallon (Prices) Cents Per Gallon (Delta) 350 140 300 120 250 100 200
Cents Per Gallon (Prices)
Cents Per Gallon (Delta)
350
140
300
120
250
100
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
0
-50
-20
3/5/2009
5/14/2009
7/23/2009
10/1/2009
12/10/2009
2/18/2010

Delta

Toluene, Spot, FOB USGC

Toluene, Octane

~

STDP Economics - Alternative Toluene Values

Cents Per Gallon (Prices) Cents Per Gallon (Margins) 360 72 300 60 240 48 180
Cents Per Gallon (Prices)
Cents Per Gallon (Margins)
360
72
300
60
240
48
180
36
120
24
60
12
0
0
-60
-12
10/15/2009
11/12/2009
12/10/2009
1/7/2010
2/4/2010
3/4/2010
Toluene Spot Price
Alternative Toluene Value (STDP)
STDP Margin
~

SUPPLY/DEMAND ECONOMICS AND SPOT MARKETS

On the supply side, turnaround season for many aro- matics producers looks to be windling down as the amount of downed capacity as compared to February is off significantly. While the potential for more output is there, production levels really haven’t increased to a great extent. Reforming margins are still well in the red, as octane is still considerably undervalued the relative to its cost. As well, the light-end byproducts coming off of the reformer, such as hydrogen and fuel gas, are decreasing in value as natural gas prices

Mixed Xylenes Spreads Between the U.S. and Asia

Dollars Per Metric Ton

1,400 140 1,200 120 1,000 100 800 80 600 60 400 40 200 20 0
1,400
140
1,200
120
1,000
100
800
80
600
60
400
40
200
20
0
0
-200
-20
-400
-40
3/5/2009
5/14/2009
7/23/2009
10/1/2009
12/10/2009
2/18/2010
Delta
Mixed Xylenes, Spot, FOB USGC
Mixed Xylenes, Spot, FOB SKOR
~

come off. Even with restrained volumes coming out of reformers, demand seems to be low enough for prices suppressed. As mentioned earlier, spreads between spot toluene prices and blend value have tightened to lows not seen since last June. This is due in part to ben- zene and mixed xylene price movements, which have shown weakness for the better part of the month and have subsequently hit toluene conversion margins quite hard.

Xylenes present much the same picture; while potential supply sources seem to be up from February, operat- ing rates have corrected downward in response as overall demand does not seem to be pushing prices upward. While increasing so far in March, spot paraxylene prices are really only keeping up with the increases in naphtha prices. Current xylenes-to-paraxylene spreads March have increased to over $150 per ton from lower levels in late February / early March; however, spreads from naphtha-to-xylenes have tightened to around $75 per ton.

120

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

-120

120 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 -90 -120 U.S. Toluene Trade January 2008 - January
120 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 -90 -120 U.S. Toluene Trade January 2008 - January
U.S. Toluene Trade January 2008 - January 2010 Exports Imports Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09
U.S. Toluene Trade
January 2008 - January 2010
Exports
Imports
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09   200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09   200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
 

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

Jan-10

~

50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 Jan-10 ~ Thousand Metric Tons Dollars Per Metric Ton U.S.

Thousand Metric Tons

Dollars Per Metric Ton

Jan-10 ~ Thousand Metric Tons Dollars Per Metric Ton U.S. Mixed Xylenes Trade Thousand Metric Tons

U.S. Mixed Xylenes Trade

Thousand Metric Tons January 2008 - January 2010 Dollars Per Metric Ton 160 400 Exports
Thousand Metric Tons
January 2008 - January 2010
Dollars Per Metric Ton
160
400
Exports
140
350
120
300
100
250
80
200
60
150
40
100
20
50
0
0
-20
-50
Imports
-40
-100
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
~

~

100 20 50 0 0 -20 -50 Imports -40 -100 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09
100 20 50 0 0 -20 -50 Imports -40 -100 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09
100 20 50 0 0 -20 -50 Imports -40 -100 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09

Other

W. Europe

Asia

Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Spot

Other

W. Europe

Asia

Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Contract

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308

Page 8

Spot - U.S. Spot Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Contract March 19,
North America Aromatics Market Report TOLUENE AND XYLENES

North America Aromatics Market Report

TOLUENE AND XYLENES

2010 North America Toluene Operating Schedule (000 Metric Tons) Annual Capacity

 
 

Capacity

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

North American Capacity North American Capacity Lost North American Capacity Lost: Others/Estimates North American % Capacity Lost

7,584

644

582

644

623

644

623

644

644

623

644

623

644

238

44

23

29

19

33

12

13

15

12

13

12

13

58

-

52

5

1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

4%

7%

13%

5%

3%

5%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2010 North America Mixed Xylenes Operating Schedule (000 Metric Tons)

 
 

Capacity

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

North American Capacity

10,641

904

816

904