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Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ, 2/2014

Ɉɪɢɝɢɧɚɥɧɢ ɧɚɭɱɧɢ ɪɚɞ 343.14
doi:10.5937/zrpfns48-6764

Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ, ɪɟɞɨɜɧɢ ɩɪɨɮɟɫɨɪ
ɍɧɢɜɟɪɡɢɬɟɬ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ
ɉɪɚɜɧɢ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ

ɉɊɂɆȿɇȺ ɊȺɑɍɇȺ ȼȿɊɈȼȺɌɇɈȶȿ
ɍ Ɉɐȿɇɂ ȾɈɄȺɁȺ
ɋɚɠɟɬɚɤ: Ɋɨɛɨɬ ɡɚ ɫɭɞɫɤɢɦ ɫɬɨɥɨɦ? Ɂɚɫɚɞ ʁɟ ɬɨ ɫɚɦɨ ɧɚɭɱɧɚ ɮɚɧ-
ɬɚɫɬɢɤɚ, ɚɥɢ ɧɚɭɱɧɨ-ɬɟɯɧɢɱɤɢ ɪɚɡɜɨʁ ʁɟ ɢɡɭɡɟɬɧɨ ɛɪɡ. ȵɟɝɨɜɚ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɭʄɚ
ɧɟɡɚɭɫɬɚɜʂɢɜɨ ɩɪɨɞɢɪɭ ɭ ɫɜɟ ɩɨɪɟ ɞɪɭɲɬɜɚ ɢ ɠɢɜɨɬɚ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɰɚ ɢ ɞɨɜɟ-
ɲʄɟ ɢ ɧɚ ɩɨɞɪɭɱʁɭ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɞɨ ɤɪɭɩɧɢɯ ɩɪɨɦɟɧɚ,ɩɚ ɢ ɬɚɤɜɢɯ ɤɨʁɟ ɞɚɧɚɫ
ɢɡɝɥɟɞɚʁɭ ɤɚɨ ɧɚɭɱɧɚ ɮɚɧɬɚɫɬɢɤɚ.ɍ ɦɨɠɞɚ ɢ ɧɟ ɭ ɬɚɤɨ ɞɚɥɟɤɨʁ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤ-
ɬɢɜɢ,ɝɥɚɜɧɢɧɭ ɫɭɞɫɤɢɯ ɩɨɫɥɨɜɚ ɜɢɲɟ ɧɟʄɟ ɨɛɚɜʂɚɬɢ ɱɨɜɟɤ, ɜɟʄ ɪɚɱɭɧɚɪ.
ɉɪɨɞɨɪ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɟ ɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɞɭɪɭ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɨɦɨɝɭʄɚɜɚ ɭ ɩɪɜɨɦ ɪɟ-
ɞɭ ɪɚɡɜɨʁ ɬɟɨɪɢʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɬɢɤɟ.ɍ ɨɜɨɦ ɪɚɞɭ ʄɟɦɨ ɫɟ ɛɚɜɢ-
ɬɢ ɧɟɤɢɦ ɚɫɩɟɤɬɢɦɚ ɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨ-
ɤɚɡɚ, ɤɚɨ ɡɚɱɟɬɤɚ ɚɭɬɨɦɚɬɢɡɚɰɢʁɟ ɧɚ ɨɜɨɦ ɜɟɨɦɚ ɨɫɬɟʂɢɜɨɦ ɩɨʂɭ.
Ʉʂɭɱɧɟ ɪɟɱɢ: Ⱦɨɤɚɡɢ, ɨɰɟɧɚ, ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ

I ɍȼɈȾ

ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɭɨɩɲɬɟ ɧɢʁɟ ɧɨɜɚ ɢɞɟʁɚ. ɍ ɤɚɫɧɨ
ɮɟɭɞɚɥɧɨ ɞɨɛɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɫɭ
ɩɪɨɩɢɫɚɧɢ ɬɡɜ.ɡɚɤɨɧɫɤɨɦ ɨɰɟɧɨɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. ɉɨɡɧɚɬɢ Ʉɚɡɧɟɧɢ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɧɢɤ ɧɟ-
ɦɚɱɤɨ-ɪɢɦɫɤɨɝ ɰɚɪɚ Ʉɚɪɥɚ V (ɩɨɡɧɚɬɚ ɢ ɤɚɨ Constitutio Criminalis Caroli-
na,1532.ɝ.) ɡɚɤɨɧɫɤɨɦ ɨɰɟɧɨɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɭɜɨɞɢ ɭ ɨɜɭ ɨɛɥɚɫɬ ɩɪɚɜɭ ɩɪɚɜɧɭ ɦɚ-
ɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɭ. ɋɭɞɢʁɚ ʁɟ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɱɤɢ ɫɚɛɢɪɚɨ ɢ ɨɞɭɡɢɦɚɨ ɞɨɤɚɡɟ ɞɨɤ ɧɢʁɟ ɩɨɫɬɢ-
ɝɚɨ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦ ɩɪɨɩɢɫɚɧɭ ɤɨɥɢɱɢɧɭ ɢ ɤɜɚɥɢɬɟɬ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɧɢɯ ɡɚ ɨɫɭɞɭ.
Ɍɚɤɨ, ɞɚ ɛɢ ɫɟ ɧɟɤɚ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚ ɦɨɝɥɚ ɫɦɚɬɪɚɬɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚɧɨɦ ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɧɨ ʁɟ ɛɢɥɨ
ɞɚ ʁɟ ɩɪɢɡɧɚ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɢɥɢ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɬɜɪɞɟ 2 ɛɟɫɩɪɟɤɨɪɧɚ ɫɜɟɞɨɤɚ. ɂɫɤɚɡ
ɦɚɧʂɢɜɨɝ ɫɜɟɞɨɤɚ ɫɦɚɬɪɚɧ ʁɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɩɨɥɭɞɨɤɚɡɨɦ ɢ ɨɫɭɻɭʁɭʄɚ ɩɪɟɫɭɞɚ ɫɟ ɧɚ
ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ʃɟɝɚ ɧɢʁɟ ɦɨɝɥɚ ɢɡɪɟʄɢ (ɨɫɢɦ ɡɚ ɧɟɤɚ ɫɢɬɧɢʁɚ ɞɟɥɚ) ɢɬɞ. Ɉɜɚ ýɩɪɚɜ-
ɧɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɚý ʁɟ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚɥɚ ɞɭɛɨɤɨ ɧɟɩɨɜɟɪɟʃɟ ɭ ɫɩɨɡɧɚʁɧɟ ɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ
ɫɭɞɢʁɟ ɢ ɡɚɦɢɲʂɟɧɚ ʁɟ ɤɚɨ ɝɚɪɚɧɰɢʁɚ ɨɞ ɫɭɞɫɤɟ ɫɚɦɨɜɨʂɟ. Ɇɟɻɭɬɢɦ, ɩɪɨɢɡ-
173

Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ, ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. 173–192)

ɜɟɥɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɬɩɭɧ ɤɨɧɬɪɚɟɮɟɤɚɬ, ʁɟɪ ʁɟ ɲɢɪɨɦ ɨɬɜɚɪɚɥɚ ɜɪɚɬɚ ɬɨɪɬɭɪɢ:ɍ ɧɟɦɨ-
ɝɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɛɚɜʂɚʃɚ ɡɚɯɬɟɜɚɧɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɢɧɟ ɢ ɤɜɚɥɢɬɟɬɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ, ɫɭɞ ʁɟ ɦɭɱɟ-
ʃɟɦ ʁɟ ɢɡɧɭɻɢɜɚɨ ɩɪɢɡɧɚʃɟ ɨɞ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɢ ɬɢɦɟ ʁɟ ɫɬɜɚɪ ɛɢɥɚ ɪɟɲɟɧɚ.
ɂɡɧɭɻɟɧɚ ɩɪɢɡɧɚʃɚ ɫɭ ɱɟɫɬɨ ɛɢɥɚ ɥɚɠɧɚ ɢ ɡɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ɫɭ ɱɟɫɬɟ ɛɢɥɟ ɢ ɨɫɭɞɟ
ɧɟɜɢɧɢɯ ɥɢɰɚ. Ⱦɨɞɭɲɟ, ɩɪɢɡɧɚʃɟ ɞɚɬɨ ɧɚ ɬɨɪɬɭɪɢ ɧɢʁɟ ɦɨɝɚɨ ɛɢɬɢ ɞɨ-
ɤɚɡ,ʁɟɪ ʁɟ ɡɚɤɨɧɢɤ ɩɪɢɡɧɚɜɚɨ ɡɚ ɩɭɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡ ɫɚɦɨ ɫɥɨɛɨɞɧɨ ɞɚɬɨ ɩɪɢɡɧɚ-
ʃɟ.Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ʁɟ ɧɟɤɨɥɢɤɨ ɞɚɧɚ ɧɚɤɨɧ ɬɨɪɬɭɪɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɩɨɡɜɚɧ ɞɚ ɩɨɬɜɪɞɢ
ɫɜɨʁɟ ɩɪɢɡɧɚʃɟ ɢɡɧɭɻɟɧɨ ɬɨɪɬɭɪɨɦ. Ɍɚ ɩɨɬɜɪɞɚ ɫɟ ɫɦɚɬɪɚɥɚ ɞɨɛɪɨɜɨʂɧɢɦ
ɩɪɢɡɧɚʃɟɦ ɢ ɩɭɧɨɜɚɠɧɢɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɨɦ. Ⱥɤɨ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɨɞɛɢɨ ɩɨɬɜɪɻɢɜɚ-
ʃɟ,ɩɨɞɜɪɝɚɜɚɧ ʁɟ ɩɨɧɨɜɨ ɦɭɱɟʃɭ.
ɋɢɫɬɟɦ ɡɚɤɨɧɫɤɟ ɨɰɟɧɟ ʁɟ ɭɤɢɧɭɬ, ɤɚɞ ʁɟ ɩɨɞ ɩɪɢɬɢɫɤɨɦ ɞɪɭɲɬɜɟɧɨɝ
ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫɚ ɭɤɢɧɭɬ ɢɧɤɜɢɡɢɬɨɪɫɤɢ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɚɤ ɭ ɬɨɤɭ ɜɟɥɢɤɟ ɪɟɮɨɪɦɟ ɤɪɢɜɢɱ-
ɧɨɝ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɚ ɭ XIX ɜɟɤɭ1.ɍ ɫɚɜɪɟɦɟɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɨɜɚɤɚɜ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɦɟɯɚ-
ɧɢɱɤɟ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ, ɡɚɫɧɨɜɚɧ ɧɚ ɧɟɝɚɰɢʁɢ ɫɩɨɡɧɚʁɧɢɯ ɫɩɨɛɧɨɫɬɢ ɱɨɜɟɤɚ
ɭɨɩɲɬɟ, ɚ ɩɨɫɟɛɧɨ ɫɭɞɢʁɚ ɢ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɫɬɢɦ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɦ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢʁɚɦɚ, ɧɢʁɟ
ɦɨɝɚɨ ɨɩɫɬɚɬɢ.Ɇɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɚ ʁɟ ɚɧɚɬɟɦɢɫɚɧɚ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɚɧɚ ɢɡ ɫɭɞɧɢɰɚ. ɋɜɟ ɞɨ
ɞɪɭɝɟ ɩɨɥɨɜɢɧɟ XX ɜɟɤɚ, ɩɨɞ ɭɬɢɫɤɨɦ ɥɨɲɢɯ ɢɫɤɭɫɬɚɜɚ ɢɡ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɫɬɢ,
ɚɥɢ ɢ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɨɧɚɥɧɟ ɚɜɟɪɡɢʁɟ ɩɪɚɜɧɢɤɚ ɩɪɟɦɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɰɢ, ɨɞɛɢʁɚɧɚ ʁɟ
ɫɜɚɤɚ ɩɨɦɢɫɚɨ ɩɨɧɨɜɧɨɝ ɭɜɨɻɟʃɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɤɟ ɭ ɨɰɟʃɢɜɚʃɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. Ɇɟɻɭ-
ɬɢɦ, ɩɨɞ ɭɬɢɰɚʁɟɦ ɛɪɡɨɝ ɪɚɡɜɨʁɚ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɢɯ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɢɱɤɢɯ ɧɚɭɤɚ, ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢ-
ɤɟ ɢ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɬɢɤɟ, ɩɨɱɢʃɭ ɫɟ ʁɚɜʂɚɬɢ ɢɞɟʁɟ, ɞɚ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɫɥɨɛɨɞɧɟ ɨɰɟɧɟ
ɞɨɤɚɡɚ,ɭɡ ɩɨɲɬɨɜɚʃɟ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɚ, ɢɩɚɤ ɧɢʁɟ ɧɟɫɩɨʁɢɜ ɫɚ ɤɨɪɢɲʄɟ-
ʃɟɦ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɢɯ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ. ɋɚɜɪɟɦɟɧɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ
ɤɨʁɢ ɫɟ ɦɨɝɭ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɢɬɢ ɡɚ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɫɭ ɞɚɥɟɤɨ ɫɨɮɢɫɬɢɰɢɪɚɧɢʁɢ, ɨɞ
ɩɪɢɦɢɬɢɜɧɨɝ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɱɤɨɝ ɫɚɛɢɪɚʃɚ ɢ ɨɞɭɡɢɦɚʃɚ ɭ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɭ ɡɚɤɨɧɫɤɟ ɨɰɟ-
ɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɢ ɡɚɫɧɢɜɚʁɭ ɫɟ ɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢ ɤɨɦɩʁɭɬɟɪɫɤɨʁ ɬɟɯɧɢɰɢ.
Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ɛɢ ɧɚɭɱɧɨ ɡɚɫɧɨɜɚɧɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɛɢɬɢ ɜɪɥɨ ɤɨ-
ɪɢɫɧɢ ɢ ɭ ɧɚʁɨɫɟɬʂɢɜɢʁɟɦ ɞɟɥɭ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɚ, ɚ ɬɨ ʁɟ ɨɰɟɧɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. Ɇɚɬɟɦɚɬɢ-
ɤɚ ɢ ɪɚɱɭɧɚɪ ʁɨɲ ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭ ɡɚɦɟɧɢɬɢ ɫɭɞɢʁɭ,ɚɥɢ ɛɢ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɛɢɬɢ ɤɨɪɢɫɧɨ ɩɨ-
ɦɚɝɚɥɨ ɫɭɞɢʁɢ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. ɍ ɫɜɚɤɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɫɭɞɢʁɚ ɧɟ ɛɢ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɢɨ
ɧɟɩɪɚɜɢɥɧɨ, ɚɤɨ ɭ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚʃɭ ɫɜɨɝ ɭɜɟɪɟʃɚ,ɤɨɪɢɫɬɢ ɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɟ ɦɟɬɨ-
ɞɟ. Ɍɨ ɛɢ ɛɢɥɨ ɭ ɫɚɝɥɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɚ ɧɚɱɟɥɨɦ ɫɥɨɛɨɞɧɟ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. ɇɚɩɪɨ-
ɬɢɜ,ɚ ɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɢɫɤʂɭɱɟʃɟ ɪɚɡɭɦʂɢɜɢɯ ɢ ɩɪɨɜɟɪɟɧɢɯ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ
ɢɡ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɛɢɥɨ ɭ ɫɭɩɪɨɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɚ ɧɚɱɟɥɨɦ ɫɥɨɛɨɞɧɟ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.ɍ
(ɧɟ ɬɚɤɨ ɞɚɥɟɤɨʁ) ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜɢ,ɦɨɠɞɚ ʄɟ ɦɚɲɢɧɚ ɭ ɩɨɬɩɭɧɨɫɬɢ ɡɚɦɟɧɢɬɢ
ɱɨɜɟɤɚ ɢ ɧɚ ɬɚɤɨ ɨɫɟɬʂɢɜɨɦ ɦɟɫɬɭ ɤɚɨ ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɫɭɻɟʃɟ.Ɍɢɦɟ ɛɢ ɫɟ ɤɨɧɚɱɧɨ
ɟɥɢɦɢɧɢɫɚɥɚ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬ ɢɡ ɫɭɻɟʃɚ.
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ɍ ɋɪɛɢʁɢ ʁɟ ɭɤɢɧɭɬɚ ɬɟɤ ɞɨɧɨɲɟʃɟɦ Ɂɚɤɨɧɢɤɚ ɨ ɫɭɞɫɤɨɦ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɢɡ
1929.ɝ.

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Ȼɪɨʁɱɚɧɚ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ (Ⱥ) ɨɤɨ ɤɨʁɟ ɜɚɪɢɪɚ ɛɪɨʁ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɟɥɨɝ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɨɝ ɞɨ- ɝɚɻɚʁɚ ʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɬɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ -ɉ(A). ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɧɚ 175 . ʁɟɪ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ ɢɦɚ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɨ ɦɟɫɬɨ ɢ ɦɟɻɭ ɩɨʁɦɨɜɢɦɚ ɬɟɨɪɢʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. Ɋɚɱɭɧɨɦ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɫɟ ɩɨ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɭ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɛɭɞɭʄɟɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ. ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɡɚɩɪɚɜɨ ɨɩɟɬ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ. Ɋɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ȼɚɠɚɧ ɩɨʁɚɦ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ʁɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ. Ɍɚɤɨ. ʃɟɝɨɜɨ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɟ ʁɟ ɞɚɤɥɟ ɢɫɤʂɭɱɟɧɨ. ɉɨɬɪɟɛɚ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɚɨ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɝ ɚɬɪɢɛɭɬɚ ɭɬɜɪɻɢɜɚʃɚ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɱɧɨɝ ɫɬɚʃɚ ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɧɨ ɡɚ ɨɫɭɞɭ ɨɩ- ɬɭɠɟɧɨɝ. Ʉɚɞɚ ɫɟ ɛɚɰɢ ɤɨɰɤɚ. ɞɚ ɫɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɧɟ ɪɚɞɢ ɨ ɩɪɨɭɱɚɜɚ- ʃɭ ɦɚɫɨɜɧɢɯ. Ɇɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ ɨɩɲɬɟ ɬɟɨɪɢʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɭ 1. Ɍɨ ʁɟɞɚɧ ɨɞ ɩɨɫɬɚɜɤɢ ɮɭɧɞɚɦɟɧɬɚɥɧɨɝ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɚ ɡɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɭ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɧɟɦɨɝɭ- ʄɟɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ʁɟ 0. ɋɭɲɬɢɧɚ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɩɪɢɤɚɡɚɬɢ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɫɬɨɦ ɩɪɢɦɟ- ɪɭ.Ɍɚɞɚ ɭɦɟɫɬɨ ɜɟɪɨ- ɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢɦɚɦɨ ɡɚɩɪɚɜɨ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ. ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɬɢ ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɭɤɭɩɚɧ ɛɪɨʁ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɩɨɫɦɚɬɪɚɧɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ(ɪɟɰɢɦɨ ɛɪɨʁ 6 ɤɨɞ ɤɨɰ- ɤɟ) ɩɨɞɟɥɢ ɫɚ ɡɛɢɪɨɦ ɫɜɢɯ ɩɨɤɭɲɚʁɚ(ɭɤɭɩɧɢɦ ɛɪɨʁɟɦ ɛɚɰɚʃɚ). 2/2014 II ɌȿɈɊɂȳȿ ȼȿɊɈȼȺɌɇɈȶȿ ɍ ȾɈɄȺɁɂȼȺȵɍ 1. Ʉɚɨ ɤɪɭɩɚɧ ɩɪɨɬɢɜɚɪ- ɝɭɦɟɧɬ ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɧɚɜɟɫɬɢ. ɋɢɝɭɪɧɨ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɟ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɫɟ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɜɚ ɫɚ ɛɪɨʁɟɦ 1. Ɍʁ.ɬɨ ɧɢʁɟ ɫɚɫɜɢɦ ɨɩɪɚɜɞɚɧɨ. ɇɚɤɨɧ ɜɟɥɢɤɨɝ ɛɪɨʁɚ ɛɚɰɚʃɚ ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɤɨɧɫɬɚɬɨɜɚɬɢ ɞɚ ʄɟ ɫɜɚɤɚ ɩɨɜɪ- ɲɢɧɚ ɤɨɰɤɟ ɭ ɩɪɢɛɥɢɠɧɨ ʁɟɞɧɚɤɨɦ ɛɪɨʁɭ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɟɜɚ ɛɢɬɢ ɫɚ ɝɨɪʃɟ ɫɬɪɚɧɟ. ɍ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚʃɭ ɨɞɛɨʁɧɨɝ ɫɬɚɜɚ ɩɪɚɜɧɢɤɚ ɩɪɟɦɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢɦɚɥɢ ɫɭ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɭ ɭɥɨɝɭ ɢ ʁɟɡɢɱɤɢ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɢ. ɢɫɤʂɭɱɭʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ ɤɚɨ ɩɨʁɦɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ. ɨɧɢ ɦɨɝɭ ɞɨɡɜɨɥɢɬɢ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɛɢ- ɥɨ ɦɨɝɭʄɟ ɫɬɜɚɪɧɨ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɟ ɬɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɢ ɭ ɩɪɨɲɥɨɫɬɢ. ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɫɟ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɧɟɤɢɦ ɛɪɨʁɟɦ ɢɡɦɟɻɭ 0 ɢ 1. 1.Ɇɟɻɭɬɢɦ. ɚɤɨ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɟ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨʁɟ ɞɚʁɭ ɲɚɧɫɭ ɛɭɞɭʄɟɦ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɭ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ.ɧɟɩɪɟɞɜɢɞɢɜ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɚɧ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ ʁɟ ɤɨʁɚ ʄɟ ɫɬɪɚɧɚ ɛɢɬɢ ɝɨɪɟ. Ɇɟ- ɻɭɬɢɦ. Ɉɜɚʁ ʁɟɞɧɨɫɬɚɜɧɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɪ ɫɚɦ ɩɨ ɫɟɛɢ ɧɟ ɛɢ ɛɢɨ ɞɨɜɨʂɚɧ ɞɚ ɨɩɪɚɜɞɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɭ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ. Ɉɧɚ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɜɚ ɩɨɱɟɬɚɤ ɢ ɤɪɚʁ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. ɚɤɨ ɫɭ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɚ- ɥɢ ɢɫɬɢ ɭɫɥɨɜɢ.1. ɜɟʄ ɭɡɪɨɱɧɨ. ɢɫɬɚ ʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɞɚ ʄɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɝɨɪɟ ɛɢɥɨ ɤɨʁɚ ɫɬɪɚɧɚ ɤɨɰɤɟ.2. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ.ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɢɯ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ. Ɉɧ ɢɡɪɚɠɚ- ɜɚ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɢ ɨɞɧɨɫ ɢɡɦɟɻɭ ɛɪɨʁɚ ɩɨɤɭɲɚʁɚ (ɧ) ɢ ɛɪɨʁɚ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɩɨɫɦɚɬɪɚ- ɧɨɝ ɪɟɥɟɜɚɧɬɧɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ (ɤ) ɢ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɫɟ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɨɦ ɤ/ɧ. ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɢ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ Ɋɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɫɟ ɛɚɜɢ ɭɬɜɪɻɢɜɚʃɟɦ ɨɞɧɨɫɚ ɭɧɭɬɚɪ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɢɯ ɦɚ- ɫɨɜɧɢɯ ɩɨʁɚɜɚ ɢ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ.ɩɨɫɥɟɞɢɱɧɢɯ ɜɟɡɚ ɬɚɱɧɨ ɨɞ- ɪɟɻɟɧɨɝ ɢɧɞɢɜɢɞɭɚɥɧɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ.

ɱɢʁɟ ʁɟ ɩɨɡɧɚɜɚʃɟ ɧɭɠɧɨ ɫ ɚɫɩɟɤɬɚ ɢɦɩɥɟɦɟɧɬɚɰɢʁɟ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬ- ɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɫ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡ.ɨɪɭɠʁɚ ɢ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɫɬɜɚɪɚɥɚɰɚ ɬɪɚɝɨɜɚ.2 ɇɢ ɭ ɩɪɢɛɥɢ- ɠɧɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɧɢʁɟ ɢɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚɧɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɫɬɚɤɥɚ.ɨɪɭ- ɻɚ.ɚɥɢ ɫɭ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɞɨɛɪɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɢ ɡɚ ɪɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. Ɍɚɞɚ ʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄa (ɉ) ɡɚʁɟɞɧɢɱɤɨɝ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɨɛɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ [ɉ(AȻ)] ɢɡɪɚɠɟɧɚ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɨɦ ɮɨɪ- ɦɭɥɨɦ: ɉ(AȻ)=ɉ(A)xɉ(Ȼ) Ɍɨ ɡɧɚɱɢ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɡɚʁɟɞɧɢɱɤɟ ɢɫɬɨɜɪɟɦɟɧ ɩɨʁɚɜɟ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ Ⱥ ɢ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ Ȼ ɞɨɛɢʁɚ ɤɚɞɚ ɫɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ ʃɯɨɜɟ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɚɱɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɩɨ- ɦɧɨɠɟ ʁɟɞɧɚ ɫ ɞɪɭɝɨɦ.N.3. ɉɪɢɦɟɪ: ɍ ʁɟɞɧɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ 1)ɧɚ ɬɟɥɭ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ ɧɚɻɟɧ ʁɟ ɬɪɚɝ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɢɫɬɨɜɟɬɧɟ ɫɚ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɟ.ɚɥɢ ɫɚɦ ɩɨ ɫɟɛɢ ɧɟɞɨɜɨʂɚɧ ɭɫɥɨɜ ɭɜɨɻɟʃɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟ- ɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɢ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɚɤ. Ɍɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɦɧɨɠɟʃɚ Ɂɚ ɪɚɡɭɦɟɜɚʃɟ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɟ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɧɨ ʁɟ ɩɨɡɧɚɜɚʃɟ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɚɤɫɢɨɦɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɤɨʁɢ ɫɭ ɪɚɡɪɚɞɢɥɢ A.ɬɚɞɚ ʁɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟ- ɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɬɟ ɤɪɜɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ 5% ɢɥɢ 0. ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ (Ⱥ) ɢ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ(Ȼ). ɉɨɡɧɚɜɚʃɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɪɟɥɟɜɚɧɬɧɢɯ ɩɨʁɚɜɚ ɢ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ʁɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɩɨɥɚɡɧɢ ɨɫɧɨɜ. 3) ɧɚ ɬɟɥɭ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ ɧɚɻɟɧɨ ʁɟ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɰɟ ɢɫɬɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɤɚɨ ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥ ɫɭɤʃɟ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɟ.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. 173–192) ɥɢɰɭ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɧɚɻɭ ɬɪɚɝɨɜɢ ɤɪɜɢ ɝɪɭɩɟ X. ɇɢʁɟ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɨ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɤɚɨ ɩɪɢɦɟɪ ɤɨɪɢ- ɲʄɟʃɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɧɚɜɨɞɟ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ. ʁɟ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɞ ɫɜɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɤɪɜ- ɧɢɯ ɝɪɭɩɚ ɧɚʁɜɢɲɟ ɢɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚɧɚ. ɂɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚʃɚ ɫɟ ɡɚɫɧɢɜɚʁɭ ɧɚ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚʃɭ ɤɪɜɧɢɯ ɝɪɭɩɚ ɭ ɦɟɞɢɰɢɧɫɤɟ ɫɜɪɯɟ ɭ ɦɢɥɢɨɧɢɦɚ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɟɜɚ. Ɋɚɡ- ɥɨɝ ɬɨɦɟ. 3 Ɋɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɬɟɤɫɬɢɥɧɢɯ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ ʁɟ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɚ ɧɚɭɱɧɢɦ ɢɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚʃɢɦɚ. ɢɫɬɨ ɤɚɨ ɢ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɢ. ɉɪɢ ɬɨɦɟ ɩɪɢɛɥɢɠɧɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɨɜɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ʁɟ: –––––––––– 2 Ɍɪɟɛɚ ɧɚɩɨɦɟɧɭɬɢ ɞɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ȾɇɄ ɞɚʁɟ ɦɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɭɡɞɚɧɢʁɢ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ ɨɞ ɤɪɜɧɢɯ ɝɪɭɩɚ. 1.05. 176 . Ɉɜɞɟ ʄɟɦɨ ɫɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɫɭɦɚɪɧɨ ɨɫɜɪɧɭɬɢ ɧɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɭ ɦɧɨ- ɠɟʃɚ.Ʉɨɥɦɨɝɨɪɨɜ ɢ ʃɟɝɨɜɢ ɫɥɟɞɛɟɧɢɰɢ. ɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɜɢɲɟ ɦɢɥɢɨɧɚ ɭɡɨɪɚɤɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥɚ ɞɚ ɬɭ ɤɪɜɧɭ ɝɪɭɩɭ ɢɦɚ 5% ɫɬɚɧɨɜɧɢɲɬɜɚ.Ɉɧɚ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ ɡɚʁɟɞɧɢɱɤɨɝ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚ- ʃɚ ɞɜɚ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ. ɚ ɩɨɪɟɞ ɬɨɝɚ 4) ʁɟɞɚɧ ɫɜɟɞɨɤ ɬɜɪɞɢ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɭɱɢɧɢ- ɥɚɰ ɛɢɨ ɩɥɚɜɨɤɨɫ. 2) ɧɚ ɬɟɥɭ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɟ ɧɚɻɟɧɨ ʁɟɞɧɨ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɰɟ ɢɫɬɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɤɚɨ ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥ ɩɚɧɬɚɥɨɧɚ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟ- ɧɨɝ3.

ɜɟʄ ʁɟ ɭ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɢʁɚ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ. ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɨ ɨɞɚɛɪɚɧɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ 1:90. ɤɨʁɢ ɢɦɚ ɬɚɤɨɻɟ ɤɪɜɧɭ ɝɪɭɩɭ X. 5 Ewett. ɩɨɡɚɞɢɧɫɤɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ Ɋɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɫɚɦ ɩɨ ɫɟɛɢ.999. ɧɟɤɨɝ ɨɞ ʁɨɲ 49. ɜɟɪɨ- ɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɞɚ ɬɪɚɝ ɤɪɜɢ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ. ɇɨ. ɜɥɚɤɚɧɰɟ 1:100 -2. ɇɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ ɢɡɪɚɠɟɧɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɨɦ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɲʄɭ ɱɟɫɬɨ ɫɟ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɭ ɜɢɞɭ ɬɡɜ. 1. ɞɚ ɭ ɬɨʁ ɝɪɭɩɢ ɢɦɚ ɩɪɢɛɥɢ- ɠɧɨ 50.000. [tj.4.4 ɇɟ ɫɦɟ ɫɟ ɢɡɝɭɛɢɬɢ ɢɡ ɜɢɞɚ ɞɚ ɪɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢɦɚ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɭ ɚɦɛɢɜɚ- ɥɟɬɧɭ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɭ.Ɍɨ ʁɟ ɦɨɝɭʄɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɩɨɪɟɞ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ –––––––––– 4 ɉɪɢɦɟɪ ɧɚɜɨɞɟ: Haller-Klein.ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨ.that this Blood Came from that Person?A Meaningful Question.ɬɪɚɝ ɤɪɜɢ 1:3000 -1. ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɨɞ ɜɟɥɢɤɟ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɢ.000. ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɧɚɫɬɭ- ɩɚʃɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ . ɡɛɨɝ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɢɧɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ ɤɨʁɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɱɚɤ ɢ ɨɜɚɤɨ ɢɦɚɬɢ.ɞɨɤ ʁɟ 1:95 ɞɚ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ.W. ɥɢɰɚ ɫɚ ɢɫɬɨɦ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ.000 ɥɢɰɚ ɫɚ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ X ɤɚɬɟɝɨɪɢɱɤɚ ɬɜɪɞʃɚ. ɭɜɟɤ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚʁɭ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ. ɜɥɚɤɚɧɰɟ 1:100 . Journal of Forensic Science Society.000 ɫɬɚɧɨɜɧɢɤɚ 5% ɡɧɚɱɢ.000 . ɬɜɪɞʃɚ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ X. Ɍɚɤɨ ɭ ɝɨɪʃɟɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɭ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɢ ɲɚɧɫɚ (ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ) 1:5 ɞɚ ɬɪɚɝ ɤɪɜɢ ɧɚɻɟɧ ɧɚ ɥɢɰɭ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ X.35 –37 177 .Überlegung zum kriminaltechnischen Sachbeweis und die möglichkeit seiner wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretischen Bewertung.ɉ(A)=1] ɫɜɟ ɨɫɬɚɥɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ ýɉý ɬʁ.000. ʁɟɪ ʁɟ ɬɪɚɝ ɦɨɝɚɨ ɩɨɬɟʄɢ ɢ ɨɞ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ. ɛɪ.I.177. ɭ ɨɞɧɨɫɭ ɧɚ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɭ ɨɞ 1.ɉ(A)=0] ɢɥɢ ɫɢɝɭɪ- ɧɨɝ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ [tj.000. Ɇɟɻɭɬɢɦ.000 ɥɢɰɚ. Ɍɚɤɨ ɨɧ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨ ɢ ɤɚɬɟɝɨɪɢɱɤɟ ɬɜɪɞʃɟ ɭ ɨɞɧɨɫɭ ɧɚ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɭ ɦɚɫɨɜɧɭ ɩɨʁɚɜɭ ɭ ɰɟɥɢɧɢ ɚɥɢ ɨɫɢɦ ɤɚɬɟɝɨ- ɪɢɱɤɢɯ ɬɜɪɞʃɢ ɧɟɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ A.ɞɚ ʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɩɨɧɚɜʂɚʃɚ ɡɚʁɟɞɧɢɱɤɨɝ ɩɪɢɫɭɫɬɜɚ 4 ɝɨɪɟ ɧɚɜɟɞɟɧɚ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɤɨɞ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ. ɫɬɪ.ɲɚɧɫɟ.9-17.. Ɂɧɚɱɚʁ ɬɡɜ. ɢɡ ɩɪɟɨɫɬɚɥɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɟ ɨɞ 50.ɭɩɪɤɨɫ ɨɱɢɝɥɟɞɧɟ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬɢ.000x3)=90. ɡɛɨɝ ɫɜɨʁɟ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɟ ɢ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɟ ɧɢʁɟ ɭ ɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɚ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɢ ɢɥɢ ɫɦɚʃɢ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɭ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɧɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɫɟ ɨɞɧɨɫɢ.ɒɬɨ ɡɧɚɱɢ. ɧɟɩɨɡɧɚɬɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ5. Ɍɚɤɨ.Archiv der Kriminologie.ɩɥɚɜɚ ɤɨɫɚ 1:3 Ɂɚʁɟɞɧɢɱɤɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɫɜɢɯ ɧɚɜɟɞɟɧɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ʁɟ 1:1ɨɨx100x3.ɨɞɪɟɻɢɜɚʃɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨ- ʄɟ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ. ɬʁ.ɫɬɪ. 2/2014 . ɋ ʁɟɞɧɟ ɫɬɪɚɧɟ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɤɚɬɟɝɨɪɢɱɤɟ ɬɜɪɞʃɟ (ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ) ɚ ɫ ɞɪɭɝɟ ɫɬɪɚɧɟ ɢ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ.ɛɪ.23/1983.What is the Probably.

Ⱥɤɨ ɫɟ ɞɟɮɢɧɢɲɟ ɩɪɟɜɢɲɟ ɲɢɪɨɤɨ. ȼɟɥɢɱɢɧɚ ɫɤɭɩɚ ɇɚ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɭɬɢɱɟ ɢ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɚ ɫɤɭɩɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɢɥɢ ɨɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ ɭ ɨɤɜɢɪɭ ɤɨʁɟɝ ɫɟ ʁɚɜʂɚ ɪɟɥɟɜɚɧɬɚɧ ɨɛʁɟɤɬ ɢɥɢ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ. 1:5ɨɨ.5. 7 Haller-Klein ɬɨ ɧɚɡɢɜɚʁɭ ýPoolý ɬʁ. ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ʄɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɢɪɟɚɥɧɨ ɧɢɫɤɚ(ɤɚɨ ɭ ɝɨɪʃɟɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɭ).ɛɚɡɟɧ. ɦɨɠɟ ɥɚɤɨ ɞɨɜɟɫɬɢ ɭ ɡɚɛɥɭɞɭ.ɩɨɡɚɞɢɧɫɤɟ ɢɧɮɨɪ- ɦɚɰɢʁɟ. ɇɚɢɦɟ. ɤɨʁɟ ɦɨɝɭ ɫɦɚʃɢɬɢ ɫɬɟɩɟɧ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬɢ. 8 Ʉɨɞ ɞɟɮɢɧɢɫɚʃɚ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɟ ɫɤɭɩɚ ɤɚɨ ɨɫɧɨɜɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ.ɨɨɨ ɥɢɰɚ. ɨɜɚɤɚɜ ɨɞɧɨɫ ɧɚɡɢɜɚʁɭ ýɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚý8. Ʉɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɟ ɬɚɤɜɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɤɨɞ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɦɨɝɭʄɟ ʁɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɭɡ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɟ ɤɨɪɟɤɰɢʁɟ:ɬɪɟɛɚ ɭɡɟɬɢ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɲɬɨ ɜɢɲɟ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɢɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚ (ɩɨɡɚɞɢɧɫɤɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ) ɤɨʁɢ ɫɭ ɭ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɨʁ(ɧɚʁɱɟɲʄɟ ɩɪɨɫɬɨɪɧɨʁ) ɜɟɡɢ ɫɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɢɪɚɧɢɦ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɢɦɚ. ɞɚ ɫɟ ɧɚ ɦɭɲɤɨɦ ɝɨɪʃɟɦ ɨɞɟɥɭ ɩɪɟɞɚɬɨɦ ɭ ɩɟɪɢɨɧɢɰɟ ɪɚɞɢ ɩɪɚ- ʃɚ. ɬɚɞɚ ʄɟ ɤɪɜɧɭ ɝɪɭɩɭ X ɪɟɥɚ- ɬɢɜɧɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ 5% ɢɦɚɬɢ ɭɤɭɩɧɨ 5ɨɨ.ɩɨɱɟɬɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɨɞ 1:2. ɍ ɨɜɢɦ ɫɥɭɱɚ- ʁɟɜɢɦɚ ɫɜɟɝɚ 3ɨ%(ɫɪɚɡɦɟɪɚ 1:3)ʁɟ ɛɢɥɚ ɤɪɜ ɫɬɪɚɧɨɝ ɩɨɪɟɤɥɚ (ɬʁ. ɞɟɮɢɧɢɫɚʃɟ –––––––––– 6 ɉɪɢɦɟɪ ɧɚɜɨɞɟ Haller-Klein. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. ɍ ɨɜɢɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɟɜɢ- ɦɚ. cit.ɩɪɢɛɚɜɟ ɢ ɰɟɧɟ ɬɡɜ.000 ɫɬɚ- ɧɨɜɧɢɤɚ 5000 ɥɢɰɚ.ɧɟ ɨɞ ɜɥɚ- ɫɧɢɤɚ). ɭ ɝɪɚɞɭ ɨɞ 100. ɭ ɩɪɟɧɟɬɨɦ ɫɦɢɫɥɭ ɫɤɭɩ. ɇɟɤɢ ɚɭɬɨɪɢ ɩɨɥɚ- ɡɟʄɢ ɨɞ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɨɝ. ɫɦɚʃɟɧɚ ʁɟ ɧɚ1:3ɨɨɨ6. Ɍɨ ɡɧɚɱɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ (ɲɚɧɫɚ) ɞɚ ɦɪʂɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɧɚ ɨɞɟɥɭ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɧɟ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɨɝ ɧɟɝɨ ɨɞ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ ɢɫɬɟ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ 1:3000. ʁɟ ɩɪɢɤɚɡɚɧ ɡɧɚɱɚʁ ɦɧɨɠɟʃɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɪɧɨʄɚ ɪɚɡɧɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. Ɇɧɨɠɟʃɟɦ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ (1:2. 1:3) ɞɨɛɢʁɚɦɨ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɭ ɫɪɚɡɦɟɪɭ 1:(2x500x3)=1:3000.000. Ɉɜɚɤɨ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧ ɩɨʁɚɦ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ. ɍ ɝɨɪʃɟɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɭ. ɡɛɢɪ. Ⱥɤɨ ɫɟ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɦɨɪɚ ɭɡɟɬɢ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɚ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɟ 10. ɲɚɧ- ɫɟ ɩɨɧɚɜʂɚʃɚ ɢɫɬɨɝ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɤɨɞ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɨ ɨɞɚɛɪɚɧɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ ɢɫɬɟ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢ- ʁɟ ʁɟ 1:2.ɭ ɝɪɚɞɭ ɫɪɟɞʃɟ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɟ 1:5000 ɚ ɭ ɫɟɥɭ 1:50. 173–192) ɭɡɦɭ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɢ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɢ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɢ. ɚ ɨɫɬɚɥɢɯ 70% ʁɟ ɩɨɬɢɰɚɥɨ ɨɞ ɜɥɚɫɧɢɤɚ.ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ ɫɚ ɢɫɬɨɦ ɤɪɜ- ɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ ɧɚ ɞɪɠɚɜɧɨɦ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɛɢ ɬɟɪɟɬɢɥɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ(ɲɚɧɫɚ) 1:500. ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ ɢɥɢ ɨɛʁɟɤɚɬ ʁɚɜʂɚ7. Ɍɚ- ɤɨ ɭ ɨɜɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɭɡɟɬɢ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬɟ ɢɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚʃɚ ɤɨʁɢɦɚ ʁɟ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɨ.delo. ɇɚ ɬɚʁ ɧɚɱɢɧ ɭɪɚɱɭɧɚɜɚʃɟɦ ɫɚɦɨ ɨɜɟ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɟ. 178 .000.000 ʂɭɞɢ ɤɚɨ ɫɤɭɩ ɭ ɤɨɦɟ ɫɟ ɨɞɪ. ɚ ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɞɟɮɢɧɢɲɟ ɩɪɟɜɢɲɟ ɭɫɤɨ. ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɜɟʄɢ ɛɪɨʁ ɧɟɡɚɜɢ- ɫɧɢɯ ɢɡɜɨɪɚ ɢɡ ɤɨʁɢɯ ɩɨɬɢɱɭ. ɩɨɥɚɡɟʄɢ ɫɚɦɨ ɨɞ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ. ɚɤɨ ɨɫɬɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɦɟ- ɯɚɧɢɱɤɨɝ ɨɛʁɚɲʃɟʃɚ. Ɉɜɚ ɫɪɚɡɦɟɪɚ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɧɨɫɬ ɜɢɫɨɤɨɝ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɚ. ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚ ʄɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɢɪɟɚɥɧɨ ɜɢɫɨɤɚ.Ⱥɤɨ ʁɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɧɟɤɟ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɭ ɞɚɬɨʁ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɢ 5ɨ%.ɫɬɪ. ȼɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɨɜɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ ʁɟ ɬɨ ɜɟʄɚ.11.ɭ ɫɟɥɭ ɨɞ 1000 ɫɬɚɧɨɜɧɢɤɚ 50 ɥɢɰɚ. 1. ɧɚɥɚɡɢ ɦɪʂɚ ɨɞ ɤɪɜɢ ɧɚ ɫɜɚɤɨɦ 500-ɬɨɦ ɤɨɦɚɞɭ (1:5ɨɨ).ɩɪɟɬɟ ɞɜɟ ɨɩɚɫɧɨ- ɫɬɢ .

ɭ ɨɜɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɧɢʁɟ ɦɨɝɭʄɟ ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɜɚʃɟ ɪɟɚɥɧɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚ ɨɩɬɭɠɟɧɨɝ ɫɚɦɨ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɦɚɪɚɦɢɰɟ ɫɚ ɬɪɚɝɨɦ ɬɭɻɟ ɩʂɭɜɚɱɤɟ. ɭ ɩɪɜɨɦ ɪɟɞɭ Ȼɚʁɟ- ɫɨɜɚ 11 ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. 13. ɤɨʁɢ ɫɟ ɤɪɟɬɚɨ ɭ ɤɪɭɝɭ ɫɜɨʁɢɯ ɩɨɡɧɚɧɢɤɚ . ɢɫɬɚ ɤɨʁɭ ʁɟ ɢɦɚɥɚ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɚ (ɭɛɢʁɟɧɚ ɞɟɜɨʁɱɢɰɚ). ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚ ɫ ɨɫɥɨɧɰɟɦ ɧɚ ɞɚɬɢ ɫɤɭɩ.G.87.Ʉɚɨ ɩɪɜɨ. ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɢɯ ɞɟɥɚ. Ⱥɤɨ ɫɟ ɬɨ ɧɟ ɢɡɜɟɞɟ ɤɨɪɟɤɬɧɨ . Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ. ɉɨɫɬɯɭɦɧɨ ʁɟ ɨɛʁɚɜʂɟɧɨ ɨɞ ɫɬɪɚɧɟ Royal Society ɭ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɭ 1764. ɇɚ ɩɪɜɢ ɩɨɝɥɟɞ ɪɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ʁɟ ɤɨɪɟɤɬɧɨ ɢɡɜɟɞɟɧ. Ɍɪɟɛɚ ɦɟɻɭɬɢɦ. Ȼɟɡ ɧɟɞɨɫɬɚʁɭʄɢɯ ɩɨɡɚ- ɞɢɧɫɤɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ. 2. 2/2014 ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɟ (ýPoolý) ɧɚ ɤɨɦɟ ɫɟ ɡɚɫɧɢɜɚ ɪɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɦɨɪɚ ɛɢɬɢ ɪɟɚ- ɥɧɚ9.ɫɬɪ. ȵɟɝɨɜɨ ɞɟɥɨ «An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances « ɭ ɤɨɦɟ ʁɟ ɨɛɪɚɞɢɨ ɫɜɨʁɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɨ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɨʁ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɢ ɩɪɨɧɚɲɚɨ ʁɟ ʁɟɞɚɧ ʃɟɝɨɜ ɩɪɢʁɚɬɟʂ. ɢɬɞ. ɇɚɢɦɟ ɡɚ ʃɟɝɨɜɭ ɟɮɢ- ɤɚɫɧɭ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɧɭ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɭ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɧɚ ʁɟ ɤɨɦɩʁɭɬɟɪɫɤɚ ɬɟɯɧɢɤɚ ɤɪɚʁɚ XX ɜɟɤɚ. Ɉɞ ɛɪɨʁɧɢɯ ɦɨɝɭʄɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɡɚ ɬɭ ɫɜɪɯɭ ɧɚʁɱɟɲʄɟ ɫɟ ɩɪɟɩɨɪɭɱɭʁɭ ɦɚ- ɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɜɚʃɚ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. 179 . ɧɢɫɭ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɫɜɢ ɫɬɚɧɨɜɧɢɰɢ ɝɪɚɞɚ ɞɨʄɢ ɭ ɞɨɞɢɪ ɫɚ ɨɩɬɭ- ɠɟɧɢɦ. Ɉɜɚʁ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɨɞ ɩɨɱɟɬɤɚ 1980-ɬɢɯ ɝɨɞɢɧɚ ɩɨɫɬɟɩɟɧɨ ɫɟ ɲɢɪɢ. Ɇɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ Ɋɚɡɜɨʁ ɬɟɨɪɢʁɟ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɞɪɭɝɨʁ ɩɨɥɨɜɢɧɢ XX ɜɟɤɚ ɨɦɨɝɭ- ʄɚɜɚ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɩɨɪɟɞ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ ɦɚɫɨɜɧɢɯ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɢɯ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ (ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɜɚʃɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ. ɚɥɢ ɩɨɝɪɟɲɚɧ. ɫɜɟɲɬɟɧɢɤ. ɋɭɞ ʁɟ ɫɦɚɬɪɚɨ ɞɚ ɬɨ ɬɟɪɟɬɢ ɨɩɬɭɠɟ- ɧɨɝ ɫɚɦɨ ɫɚ 4% ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. ɤɨɧɚɱɚɧ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɭɜɟɪʂɢɜ. ɚɥɢ ʁɟ ɫɚɫɜɢɦ ɫɢɝɭɪɧɨ ɨɧɨ ɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɟʄɟ ɨɞ 4% 10.Valós vagy valótlan.ɞɚ ɛɢ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɚɥɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɫɤɚ ɲɚɧɫɚ ɞɚ ɫɟ ʃɢɯɨɜɚ ɩʂɭɜɚɱɤɚ ɧɚɻɟ ɧɚ ɦɚɪɚɦɢɰɢ. Ⱦɪɭɝɨ. ɝɞɟ ʁɟ ɢɡɜɲɟɧɨ ɭɛɢɫɬɜɨ.ɢɦɚɬɢ ɭ ɜɢɞɭ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɧɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɧʂɢɜɨɫɬɢ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ʁɨɲ ɭɜɟɤ ɫɩɨɪ- –––––––––– 9 Haller –Klein. ɦɟɻɭ ʃɟɝɨɜɢɦ ɩɚɩɢɪɢɦɚ ɧɚɤɨɧ ɚɭɬɨɪɨɜɟ ɫɦɪɬɢ. ɍ ʁɟɞɧɨɦ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ. 11 Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). ɤɨʁɚ ʁɟ ɤɚɤɨ ɫɦɨ ɜɢɞɟɥɢ .) ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɦ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɦɚ ɩɨɦɨɝɧɟ ɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɟ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɚɱɧɢɯ ɞɨɝɚɻɚ- ʁɚ.ɫɬɪ.. ɦɧɨɝɟ ɛɢɬɧɟ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɢɫɭ ɭɡɟɬɟ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɢ ɡɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ʁɟ ɞɨɛɢʁɟɧ ɩɨɝɪɟɲɚɧ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬ.1:1500. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨ- ɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɫɟ ɬɟɤ ɤɪɚʁɟɦ XIX ɜɟɤɚ ɩɨɱɢʃɟ ɫɩɨɪɚɞɢɱɧɨ ɩɪɢɦɟʃɢɜɚɬɢ. ɨɫɢɦ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɟ ɢɦɚ ʁɨɲ 24ɨɨ ʂɭɞɢ ɢɫɬɭ ɤɪɜɧɭ ɝɪɭɩɭ.ʁɟɪ ɭ ɝɪɚɞɭ ɋ.ɝ.cit. ɟɧɝɥɟɫɤɢ ɮɢɥɨɡɨɮ.1990. ɧɢʁɟ ɫɟ ɪɚɱɭɧɚɥɨ ɫɚ ɝɨɪɟ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɨɦ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɲʄɭ ɧɚɥɚɠɟʃɚ ɬɭɻɟ ɤɪɜɢ (ɤɨʁɚ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɨɞɧɨɫɢ- ɬɢ ɢ ɧɚ ɩʂɭɜɚɱɤɭ). ɍ ɧɚɲɟɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ. Ɍɨ ʄɟɦɨ ɩɪɢɤɚɡɚɬɢ ɧɚ ʁɟɞɧɨɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɭ. Ɇɟɻɭɬɢɦ. Budapest. 10 Katona.delo.ɭɡɢɦɚʃɟɦ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɫɜɢɯ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɧ- ɤɪɟɬɧɨɝ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɚ. ɫɭɞ ʁɟ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɨ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɧɚ ɦɚɪɚɦɢɰɢ ɧɚɻɟ- ɧɨɝ ɭ ʇɟɩɭ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɢɡ ɩʂɭɜɚɱɤɟ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɚ ɤɪɜɧɚ ɝɪɭɩɚ X.

Ⱦɟɨ ɫɬɪɭɱɧɟ ʁɚɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɫɩɨɪɚɜɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɧʂɢɜɨɫɬ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟɭ ɬɭ ɫɜɪɯɭ ɞɨɤ ɫɟ ɞɪɭɝɢ ɡɚɥɚɠɭ ɡɚ ʃɭ. Ɉ ɬɨɦ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɭ ɡɧɚɦɨ ɫɚɦɨ ɬɨ.L.Emlékkönyv Vargha László születésének 90. ɤɨɥɢɤɨ ɩɭɬɚ ʁɟ ɪɚɧɢʁɟ ɜɟʄ ɞɨɲɥɨ ɞɨ ɢɫɬɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɩɨɞ ɢɫɬɢɦ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɦɚ ɢ ɤɨɥɢɤɨ ɩɭɬɚ ʁɟ ɢɡɨɫɬɚɨ.12 2. ʁɟɞɧɚ ɢɧɞɢɰɢʁɚ) ɩɨɜɟʄɚɜɚ ɢɥɢ ɫɦɚʃɭʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨ- ʄɭ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧ ɫɬɜɚɪɧɢ ɭɱɢɧɢɥɚɰ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ. ɜɟʄ ɫɚɦɨ ɩɨɤɚɡɭʁɟ ɞɚ ɥɢ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡ ɩɨɜɟʄɚɜɚ ɢɥɢ ɫɦɚʃɭʁɟ (ɢ ɭ ɤɨʁɨʁ ɦɟ- ɪɢ) ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɫɬɜɚɪɧɢ ɤɪɢɜɚɰ.1 Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɟ ɬɟɡɟ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ 13 ɍɫɥɨɜɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɫɟ ɛɚɜɢ ɩɪɨɪɚɱɭɧɨɦ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɞɨ- ɝɚɻɚʁɚ Ⱥ ɢ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ Ȼ.:Die Anwendung der Bayes-Analyse im Strafprozess. 180 .Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. ɉɨɤɚɡɭʁɟ ɞɚɤɥɟ. 173–192) ɧɚ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɦɨɠɟ ɢɦɚɬɢ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɭ ɭɥɨɝɭ ɭ ɩɪɜɨɦ ɪɟɞɭ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɩɨɫɪɟɞɧɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.ɫɬɪ. Ɍɭ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɞɚ ɨɞɪɟɞɢ ɥɢɰɟ ɤɨʁɟ ɜɪɲɢ –––––––––– 12 Tatár.ɇɚʁɤɪɚʄɟ ɪɟɱɟɧɨ Ȼɚʁɟ- ɫɨɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɫɟ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɢ ɡɚ ɞɟɮɢɧɢɫɚʃɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɞɜɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɫɭ ɭ ɦɟɻɭɫɨɛɧɨɦ ɨɞɧɨɫɭ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. 252. Ⱥɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɞɚʁɟ ɨɞɝɨɜɨɪ ɧɚ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ: ɤɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɦɟʃɚ ɩɨɱɟɬɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɚʃɚ ɧɟɤɟ ɱɢʃɧɢɰɟ (ɧɩɪ.2003. ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ) ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɞɨɤɚɠɟ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɚʃɟ ɞɨɞɚɬɧɢɯ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚ. Ɏɨɪɦɭɥɚ ɧɟ ɞɚʁɟ ɤɨɧɚɱɧɢ ɨɞɝɨɜɨɪ ɧɚ ɨɜɨ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ.Pécs. ɍɫɥɨɜɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ: ɉ(A/Ȼ)-ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɭʁɟ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ Ⱥ ɭɤɨɥɢɤɨ ʁɟ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɧ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ Ȼ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜ ɰɢʂ ʁɟ ɛɢɨ ɢɡɪɚɞɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɟ ɤɨʁɨɦ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɢɡɪɚɱɭ- ɧɚɬɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɩɨɞ ɞɚɬɢɦ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɦɚ. Ȼɚʁɟɫ ʁɟ ɢɡɪɚɞɢɨ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɭ ɤɨʁɨɦ ɫɟ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜʂɚ ɭ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɦ ɤɨɪɟɥɚɰɢʁɚɦɚ ɢ ɞɚʁɟ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɭ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɢ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ. ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɚ ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧɫɟ ʁɟ ɨɞɝɨɜɨɪ ɧɚ ɤɪɭɰɢʁɚɥɧɨ ɢ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɫɤɨ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ: ɤɨɥɢɤɚ ʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɤɪɢɜɚɰ.ɋɥɚɛɚ ɬɚɱɤɚ ɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ʁɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɚ-ɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧɫɟ.ɭ ɤɨʁɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɧɨɜɨɭ- ɬɜɪɻɟɧɚ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬ (ɧɩɪ. Ɏɨɪɦɭɥɚ ʁɟ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɚ: ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɧɚɫɬɚɧɤɚ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɚɚɤɨ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɫɬɜɚɪɧɨ ɤɪɢɜɚɰ ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɇɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ = –––––––––––––––––––––– ɏ ɩɪɟ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚʃɚ ɞɚɬɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɚ -posteriori ɲɚɧɫɚ) (ɚ-priori ɲɚɧɫɚ) ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɧɚɫɬɚɧɤɚ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɚɤɨ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɧɢʁɟ ɤɪɢɜɚɰ ɍ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɢ. 13 ɍ ɨɜɨɦ ɪɚɞɭ ʄɟɦɨ ɫɟ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɢɬɢ ɫɚɦɨ ɧɚ ɩɪɢɤɚɡ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɟ ʃɟɝɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɫɚ ɚɫɩɟɤ- ɬɚ ɧɚɲɟ ɬɟɦɟ.évfordulójára.

ɫɬɪ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ. ɞɚ ɨɞ 12450 ʂɭɞɢ ɫɚɦɨ 1 ɢɦɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɟɦ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧ ȾɇɄ ɩɪɨɮɢɥ..Ɉɜɨ ʁɟ ɤɪɢɬɢɱɧɚ ɬɚɱɤɚ Ȼɚyɟɫɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ʁɟɪ ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɬɭ ɩɨɝɪɟɲɢ ɧɢ ɤɪɚʁʃɢ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬ(ɚ-ɩɨɫɬɟ- ɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧɫɚ) ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɪɟɚɥɚɧ. 181 .. 2/2014 ɚɧɚɥɢɡɭ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ ɢ ɢɫɤɭɫɬɜɚ. ɬɨ ɡɧɚɱɢ.14 Ⱦɚɤɥɟ. Ⱥ–posteriori ɲɚɧɫɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟ- ɧɨɝ ɞɚɤɥɟ ɭ ɜɟɥɢɤɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɡɚɜɢɫɢ ɨɞ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ ɚ –priori ɲɚɧɫɟ. ȼɟɲɬɚɤ ʁɟ ɬɢɦɟ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɨ ɫɪɚɡɦɟɪɭ ɫɥɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ (Likeli- hood ratio-Ʌɪ) ɫɜɨɝ ɧɚɥɚɡɚ ɢ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɲɬɨ ʁɟ 1/(1/12450)=12450 ɬʁ. ɭ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɢ ɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɩɨɤɚɡɭʁɟ ɤɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɦɟʃɚ (ɩɨɱɟɬɧɚ) ɲɚɧɫɚ (ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ) ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɫɬɜɚɪɧɢ ɤɪɢɜɚɰ( ɤɨʁɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɚɥɚ ɩɪɟ ɧɟɝɨ ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɭɡɟɬɚ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɚ ɧɨɜɢɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɨɦ). Pécs.ɬʁ.ɧ ɉɪɟɧɟɬɨ ɧɚ ɩɨʂɟ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɚ.Ȼ2. ȼɟʄ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɟʄɟ ɩɨɞɚɬɤɟ ɨ ɜɚ- ɠɧɢɦ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚɦɚ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɞɚ ɩɪɟɬɨɱɢ ɭ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɭ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ..ɬɨɥɢɤɨ ɩɭɬɚ ʁɟ ɜɟʄɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɭɱɢɧɢɥɚɰ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɢ ɚ ɧɟ ɧɟɤɨ ɞɪɭɝɨ ɥɢɰɟ. ʃɟɝɨɜɨ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɟ ɧɢʁɟ ɢɫɤʂɭɱɟɧɨ) ɬɚɞɚ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɝɥɚɫɢ ɉ(Ȼɢ/A)=ɉ(A/Ȼɢ) x ɉ(Ȼɢ): ɧɐɉ(A/Ȼɢ)xɉ(A/Ȼɢ) =1 ɩɨɞ ɭɫɥɨɜɨɦ ɞɚ ɢ=1 -Ȼ1..2005.Ȼɧ ɱɢɧɟ ɩɨɬɩɭɧ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ15 ɉ(Ȼɢ) ɧɢʁɟ ʁɟɞɧɚɤɨ 0 ɢ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɢ=1.293.ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɚ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɚ: ɉ(A/Ȼ)=ɉ(AȻ):ɉ(Ȼ) ɉ(A/Ȼ) -ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ Ⱥ ɩɨɞ ɭɫɥɨɜɨɦ Ȼ Ʉɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɟɦ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɦɨɠɟɦɨ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɬɢ ɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ (ɉ) ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɩɪɟɬɩɨɫɬɚɜʂɚʁɭʄɢ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɟ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ Ⱥ.2.ɧɚɤɨɧ ɭɡɢɦɚʃɚ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɧɨɜɟ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɟ ɤɨʁɚ ɩɪɨɢɫɬɢɱɟ ɢɡ ɧɨɜɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. 15 ɉɨɬɩɭɧ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɫɟ ɨɫɬɜɚɪɭʁɟ ɤɚɞɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɢ ɭɡɟɬɢ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɫɟ ɡɚɫɧɢɜɚ ɧɚ ɩɪɟɬɩɨ- ɫɬɚɜɰɢ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɢɜɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ –––––––––– 14 Tremmel-Fenyvesi-Herke: Kriminalisztika.. Ⱥɤɨ ʁɟ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁ Ⱥ ɩɨɡɢɬɢɜɧɨ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɚɧ (ɬʁ. ɨɞ ɞɜɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ ɭ ɩɚɪɭ ɦɨɠɟ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɢɬɢ ɫɚɦɨ ʁɟɞɚɧ. ɉɪɢɦɟɪ: ɚɤɨ ɜɟɲɬɚɤ ɧɚɤɨɧ ɨɛɚɜʂɟɧɟ ȾɇɄ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɢɡʁɚɜɢ: 12450 ɩɭɬɚ ʁɟ ɜɟʄɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɞɚ ɤɪɜ ɧɚɻɟɧɚ ɧɚ ɥɢɰɭ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ ɧɟɝɨ ɨɞ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ.. ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ (ɉ) ɧɚɫɬɭɩɚʃɚ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɚ Ⱥ ɩɨɞ ɩɪɟɬɩɨɫɬɚɜɤɨɦ ɞɚ ʄɟ ɞɨ- ɝɚɻɚʁ Ȼ ɫɢɝɭɪɧɨ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɢɬɢ. Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ʁɟ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɧɨ ɨɞɪɟɻɟʃɟ ɚ-priori ɲɚɧɫɟ ɨɞ ɩɪɜɨɪɚɡɪɟɞɧɟ ɜɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɡɚ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɧɭ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɭ Ȼɚjɟɫɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ. ɩɨɤɪɢɜɚʁɭ ɫɜɟ ɦɨ- ɝɭʄɟ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɟ ɢ ɫɜɪɫɬɚɧɢ ɭ ɩɚɪɨɜɟ ɢɫɤʂɭɱɭʁɭ ʁɟɞɚɧ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ..

ɫ ɨɫɥɨɧɰɟɦ ɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ[ɉ(Ȼɢ)] ɞɟɮɢɧɢɲɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬ- ɧɨʄɭ [ɉ(Ȼɢ)A].16 ɇɩɪ. ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɤɪɢɜ). Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɢɡɜɟɲɬɚʁɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɢ ɭ ʃɟɦɭ ɫɚɞɪɠɚɧɟ ɬɜɪɞʃɟ Ⱥ.G.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. Ɍɨ ʁɟ ɧɚɤɧɚɞɧɚ ɢɥɢ ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ17 ɬʁ. Ʉɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɟ ɨɜɨɝ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɨɦɨɝɭʄɚɜɚ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɢɡɚɰɢʁɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ.ɂ)]x[ɉ(ɐ/ɂ):ɉɐ1/ɂ)] ɢɥɢ ɉɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ = ɭɫɥɨɜɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɝ ɦɢɲʂɟ- ʃɚ x ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ. Ⱦɪɭɝɢɦ ɪɟ- ɱɢɦɚ. ɚ ɫɚ I ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɨɧɚ ɫɚɞɪɠɢɧɚ ɨɫɬɚɥɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɢɯ ɫɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɚ.cit.ɬ ɜɪɞ- ʃɚ ɭ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɦ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɭ ɫɚ F.ɞɟɥɨ.13 17 Katona. ɚɥɢ ɫɟ ɩɪɟɞ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɧɨɦ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢʁɨɦ ɬɨɝɚ ʁɟ ɜɟʄ ɝɨɪɟ ɩɨɦɟɧɭɬɚ.ɂ):ɉ(ɐ1/Ɏ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. ɉɨɬɜɪɞɚɧ ɨɞɝɨɜɨɪ ɧɚ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ ɫɟ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɜɚ ɫɚ C ɚ ɧɟɝɚɬɢɜɚɧ ɫɚ C1. Ⱥɤɨ ɫɟ ɧɚɤɨɧ ɬɨɝɚ ɩɪɢɛɚɜɢ ɧɟɤɢ ɧɨɜɢ ɞɨɤɚɡ (ɤɨʁɢ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɞɚ ɛɭ- ɞɟ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɚɧ ɭ ɨɞɧɨɫɭ ɧɚ ɩɪɟɬɯɨɞɧɨ ɜɟʄ ɤɨɪɢɲʄɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɟ ɤɚɨ ɩɨɡɚɞɢɧ- ɫɤɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ). Ɉɰɟɧɨɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɬɪɟɛɚɥɨ ɛɢ ɞɨɛɢɬɢ ɨɞɝɨɜɨɪ ɧɚ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ ɞɚ ɥɢ ʁɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬ- ɧɨ (ɢ ɫɬɟɩɟɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ) ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɬɪɚɝɨɜɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɭɱɢɧɢ- ɥɚɰ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ.ɂ)=[ɉ(Ɏ/ɐ. ɚ ɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɫɟ ɤɚɨ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɢɰɚ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢʁɟ ɨɰɟʃɢɜɚʃɚ ɧɨɜɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɦɨɞɢɮɢɤɭʁɟ ɭ ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɭ (ɧɚɤɧɚɞɧɭ) ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ.ɫɬɪ. ɩɨɫɬɚɜʂɚ ɫɟ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ ɤɚɤɚɜ ɭɬɢɰɚʁ ɢɦɚ ɬɚʁ ɧɨɜɢ ɞɨɤɚɡ ɧɚ ɩɪɟɬɯɨɞɧɨ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬ- ɧɨʄɭ. ɉɪɢɦɟɪ: ɍ ʁɟɞɧɨʁ ɮɚɡɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɨɝ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɚ ɛɢɥɨ ʁɟ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɚɝɚʃɭ : .ɂ): ɉ(Ɏ/ɐ1. ɭ ɤɨʁɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ʁɟ ɭɜɟʄɚɧɚ ɢɥɢ ɫɦɚʃɟɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɩɨɥɚɡɧɟ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ (ɧɩɪ.89.ɜɢɲɟ ɢɫɤɚɡɚ ɫɜɟɞɨɤɚ ɧɚ ɲɬɟɬɭ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ. .Ɉɜɚ ɟɜɟɧɬɭɚɥɧɨ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɩɨɥɚɡɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɚ (ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ) ɫɥɟɞɟʄɟɝ ɰɢɤɥɭɫɚ ɨɰɟɧɟ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɨɦ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɟ ɫɟ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɭʁɟ ɭ ɞɜɚ ɤɨɪɚɤɚ: ɍ ɩɪɜɨʁ ɮɚɡɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ ɫɟ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɨɝ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɚ. –––––––––– 16 Haller-Klein. 182 .delo. Ɋɟɲɟʃɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚ ɩɨɦɨʄɭ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɢɡɝɥɟɞɚ ɨɜɚɤɨ: ɉ(ɐ/Ɏ.ʁɟɞɚɧ ɭ ɤɨɪɢɫɬ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ(ɩɨɬɜɪɞɚ ɚɥɢɛɢʁɚ) ɇɚɤɧɚɞɧɨ ʁɟ ɩɪɢɛɚɜʂɟɧ ɢɡɜɟɲɬɚʁ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɤɪɜɧɨʁ ɝɪɭɩɢ ɬɪɚɝɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɨɬɤɪɢɜɟɧɨɝ ɧɚ ɦɟɫɬɭ ɢɡɜɪɲɟʃɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ.:ɰɢɬ.ɍ ɞɪɭɝɨʁ ɮɚɡɢ ɫɟ ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɜɚ ɚɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ. ɧɚɥɚɡ ɢ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɟ ʁɟɞɧɨɝ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. 173–192) ɜɟʄ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɨɝ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɚ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɛɢɬɧɢɯ ɨɤɨɥɧɨ- ɫɬɢ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ. Ɍɨ ɫɟ ɧɚɡɢɜɚ ɩɨɥɚɡɧɨɦ (ɩɪɟɬɯɨɞɧɨɦ ɢɥɢ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɢ) ɜɟ- ɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɨɦ. ɫɬɪ. ɬɟɲɤɨ ɫɚɜɥɚ- ɞɢɜɚ ɩɪɟɩɪɟɤɚ:ɚɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɦɨɪɚ ɛɢɬɢ ɧɭɦɟɪɢɱɤɢ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɜɚ.

ɍ ɧɚɲɟɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɭ ɞɜɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɫɭ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɟ: 1. ɉ(Ɏ/ɐ1. ɬɚɞɚ ʁɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɬɨɝɚ ɢɡɪɚɠɟɧɚ ɪɚɡɥɨɦɤɨɦ 1/ɨ. 21 Ewett. ʁɚɱɚ ɩɪɟɬɩɨɫɬɚɜɤɚ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɢ ɭɱɢɧɢɨ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨ ɞɟɥɨ ɬʁ. ɉɨɫɬɚɜʂɚʃɟ ɪɚɞɧɢɯ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ ɫɭɩɪɨɬɧɢɯ ɫɚɞɪɠɚʁɚ ɨɦɨɝɭʄɚɜɚ ɫɜɟ- ɫɬɪɚɧɭ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɪɚɡɧɢɯ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ18. Ɂɛɨɝ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɬɪɚɝɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɫɚ ɥɢɰɟ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɟ ɜɟ- ɲɬɚɱɟʃɟɦ ɭ ɭɤɭɩɧɨʁ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɢ./ɐ.:ɰɢɬ ɞɟɥɨ ɫɬɪ.ɂ)=1(ɬʁ.ɨ5=20.I.G. Ɂɛɨɝ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɬɪɚɝɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɫɚ ɥɢɰɟ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɟ ɜɟ- ɲɬɚɱɟʃɟɦ ɭ ɭɤɭɩɧɨʁ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɢ. P(Ɏ/ɐ.I. 183 .Journal of Fo- rensic Science Society. ɉɪɢɤɚɡɚɧɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɪ ʁɟ ɩɨɝɨɞɚɧ ɡɚ ɧɚɝɥɚɲɚɜɚʃɟ ɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ(ɢ ɨɝɪɚɧɢ- ɱɟʃɚ) ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɨɝ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ.: ɰɢɬ.Ɍɚɞɚ ʁɟ ɉ(Ɏ/ɐ. ɚ ɤɨʁɚ ʁɟ ɢɫɬɨɜɟɬɧɚ ɫ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ.ɂ) 2. ɩɨɜɟʄɚɨ ɡɚ 20 ɩɭɬɚ(ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ)19. ɩɨɦɨʄɭ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ.Trace Transfer Problem .ɭɱɢɧɢɥɚɰ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɢ ɧɟɤɨ ɞɪɭɝɨ ɥɢɰɟ). ɞɚ ʁɟ ɛɢɨ ɧɚ ɥɢɰɭ ɦɟɫɬɚ) ɬɚɞɚ ɩɨɤɥɚɩɚʃɟ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɬɪɚɝɚ ɢ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭ- ɩɟ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɢ ɫɚɦɨ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɨ. ɚɥɢ ɧɟɦɚ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ ɨ ɤɪɟɬɚʃɭ ɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ (ɬʁ.ɫɟɪɨɥɨɝɚ ɩɨɱɟɬɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɤɪɢɜ. 19 Ewett. ɬʁ.: On a meaningful Questions: a two.1987. ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɬɢ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɟ ɜɟ- ɲɬɚɤɚ. ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚɧɭ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɢɫɤɚɡɚ ɫɜɟɞɨɤɚ. ʁɚɱɚ ɩɪɟɬɩɨɫɬɚɜɤɚ ɞɚ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɢ ɧɢʁɟ ɭɱɢɧɢɥɚɰ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ. ɋɪɚɡɦɟɪɚ ɫɥɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ(Likelihood ratio=Ʌɪ) ɤɨʁɚ ɦɨɠɟ ɩɨɦɨʄɢ ɭ ɩɪɜɨɦ ɪɟɞɭ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɬɚɤɨɻɟ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɢ ɢɡ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨ- ɪɟɦɟ21. ɚ ɤɨʁɚ ʁɟ ɢɫɬɨɜɟɬɧɚ ɫ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ.ɂ)= ɦɚʃɟ ɨɞ 1 (ɬʁ. ɞɚ ɧɚ ɦɟɫɬɭ ɢɡɜɪɲɟʃɚ ɧɢʁɟ ɛɢɥɨ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ. 377. 92. Ⱥɤɨ ʁɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɚ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ 5%(ɨ.Ɍɚɞɚ ʁɟ ɉ(Ɏ/ɐ. –––––––––– 18 Ɉ ɬɨɦɟ ɞɟɬɚʂɧɢʁɟ ɜɢɞɟɬɢ ɞɚʂɟ. ɞɟɥɨ. ɧɚ ɞɜɚ ɬɚɤɜɚ ɱɢʁɚ ʁɟ ɫɚɞɪɠɢɧɚ ɫɭɩɪɨɬɧɚ ɢ ɬɨ ɢɡ ɪɚɡɥɨɝɚ ɲɬɨ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɭ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɚɱɧɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɭɜɟɤ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚ ɧɟɢɡɜɟ- ɫɧɨɫɬ.ɂ) ɉɪɜɚ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ: ɤɪɜɧɚ ɝɪɭɩɚ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɫɟ ɩɨɤɥɚɩɚ ɫɚ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ ɬɪɚɝɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɫɚ ɥɢɰɚ ɦɟɫɬɚ.ɂ) ɢɥɢ ɉ(Ɏ/ɐ.W. ɞɚɤɥɟ ɬɪɚɝ ɧɟ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɧɭɠɧɨ ɨɞ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ. Ⱦɚɤɥɟ. ɚ ɨɫɬɚɥɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɟ(I) ɭɩɭʄɭʁɭ ɧɚ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤ. ɫɬɪ.376 20 Katona.W. Ⱦɪɭɝɚ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ : ɤɪɜɧɚ ɝɪɭɩɚ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɫɟ ɩɨɤɥɚɩɚ ɤɪɜɧɨɦ ɝɪɭɩɨɦ ɬɪɚɝɚ ɫɚ ɥɢɰɚ ɦɟɫɬɚ. ɫɬɪ. 2/2014 Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɨ ɩɢɬɚʃɟ ɭ ɜɟɡɢ ɭɬɜɪɻɢɜɚʃɚ ɤɪɜɧɟ ɝɪɭɩɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɪɚɫɱɥɚɧɢɬɢ ɧɚ ɚɥɬɟɪɧɚɬɢɜɧɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɬʁ.ɨ5).Ɉɧ ɧɢʁɟ ɩɨɭɡɞɚɧ ɤɚɞɚ ɫɟ ɪɚɞɢ ɨ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɦɚ ɱɢʁɚ ɫɟ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɩɨɭɡɞɚɧɨ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɬɢ20. ɫɢɝɭɪɧɨ ʁɟ ɨɧ ɭɱɢɧɢɥɚɰ).

Ɍɨ ʁɟ ʁɨɲ ɜɢɲɟ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɨ ɧɚɝɥɢ ɪɚɡɜɨʁ ɧɚɭɤɟ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɢɤɟ ɭ ɞɪɭɝɨʁ ɩɨɥɨɜɢ- ɧɢ XX ɜɟɤɚ. Ɇɟɻɭɬɢɦ.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. ɞɚ ɫɟ ɭ ɞɚɬɨɦ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɞɟɥɭ ɩɨɪɟɞ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɢɜɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ(ɞɨɤɚɡɚ) (I)ɩɪɢɛɚɜʂɚʁɭ ɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɢ ɨ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚɦɚ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɢɦ ɨɞ ʃɢɯ (ɧɩɪ.ɤɨʁɢ ɢɦɚ ɢɫɬɭ ɤɪɜɧɭ ɝɪɭɩɭ ɤɚɨ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ ɚ ʃɟɧɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ʁɟ Q1.ɞɚ ʁɟ ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɧɚ ɤɨɦɩʁɭɬɟɪɢɡɚɰɢʁɚ ɢ ɪɚɡɪɚɞɚ ɧɨɜɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɡɚ ɨɛ- ɪɚɞɭ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ. 173–192) ɉɨɥɚɡɟʄɢ ɨɞ ɬɨɝɚ. ɇɚ ɬɨɦ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚ ʁɟ ɭ ɫɬɚʃɭ ɩɟɪɦɚɧɟɧɬɧɟ «ɥɚɛɢɥɧɟ ɫɬɚɛɢɥɧɨɫɬ» ɢɥɢ «ɫɬɚɛɢɥɧɟ ɥɚɛɢɥɧɨɫɬɢ» ɩɚ ɫɯɨɞ- ɧɨ ɬɨɦɟ ɢ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɰɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɫɟ ɨɞɧɨɫɟ ɢɥɢ ɡɚɫɧɢɜɚʁɭ ɧɚ ʃɢɦɚ ɦɨɪɚʁɭ ɛɢɬɢ ɧɚ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɲɬɨ ɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɟ ɢ ɫɭɞ ɫɬɚɜʂɚ ɩɪɟɞ ɧɨɜɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟ- –––––––––– 184 . ɲɬɨ ʁɟ ɦɚʃɚ ɪɟɥɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ.1.ɩɪɟɦɚ ɝɨɪɟ ɩɪɢɤɚɡɚɧɨʁ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɥɨɝɢʁɢ ɦɨɝɭ ɫɟ ɩɨɫɬɚ- ɜɢɬɢ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ: C=ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨ ɞɟɥɨ ʁɟ ɢɡɜɪɲɢɨ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ C1=ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨ ɞɟɥɨ ɧɢʁɟ ɢɡɜɪɲɢɨ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢ Ⱥɤɨ ɫɟ ɧɚ ɦɟɫɬɭ ɢɡɜɪɲɟʃɚ ɧɚɻɟ ɬɪɚɝ ɤɪɜɢ. ɤɨʁɟ ɜɚɠɟ ɭ ɦɚɤɪɨɫɤɨɩɫɤɢɦ ɞɢɦɟɧɡɢʁɚɦɚ.ɇɚɪɨɱɢɬɨ ʁɟ ɧɚɝɥɚɲɟɧ ɤɚɞɚ ɫɟ ɪɚɞɢ ɨ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɭ ɧɚ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ. Ɉɰɟɧɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɝ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ʁɟ ɞɚɜɧɚɲɚʃɢ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦ ɫɭɞɫɤɟ ɩɪɚɤ- ɫɟ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɤɨɞ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɢɡɜɟɲɬɚʁɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɬɟɬɭ ɧɚ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ.ɦɢɲʂɟʃɟ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɤɪɜɧɢɦ ɝɪɭɩɚɦɚ ɬɪɚɝɨɜɚ ɤɪɜɢ ɫɚ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɢɡɜɪ- ɲɟʃɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ).ɧɨɜɢ ɜɢɫɨɤɨɨ- ɫɟɬʂɢɜɢ (Hi-tec) ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɭʁɭ ɬɚɤɜɭ ɦɚɫɭ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɢɦ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɦɚ. 2.ɬɚɞɚ ʁɟ Ʌɪ = ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɝ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ Ɏ ɭ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɢɫɬɢɧɢɬɨɫɬɢ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɐ ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɝ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ Ɏ ɭ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɢɫɬɢɧɢɬɨɫɬɢ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɐ1 ɇɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɬɨɝɚ. ɚɤɨ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɨɫɢɦ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɧɟɦɚ: Ʌɪ= 1 Q1 Ɍɨ ɡɧɚɱɢ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɞɧɨɫ ɫɥɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ(Ʌɪ) ɬɨ ɜɟʄɢ. ɭ ɦɢɤɪɨ ɢ ɫɭɛɦɢɤɪɨ ɫɜɟɬɭ ɡɚɦɟʃɭʁɟ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɤɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ. Ɋɚɧɢʁɟ ɫɭ ɜɟɲɬɚɰɢ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɧɚ ɡɚɞɨɜɨʂɚɜɚʁɭʄɢ ɧɚɱɢɧ ɨɛʁɚɫɧɢɬɢ ɩɨɪɟɤɥɨ ɢ ɡɧɚɱɚʁ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚ ɞɟɬɟɤɬɨɜɚɧɢɯ ɤɥɚɫɢɱɧɢɦ ɢɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɢɦɚ ɢ ɨɛ- ɪɚɞɢɬɢ ɢɯ ɧɚ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɚɧ ɧɚɱɢɧ ɪɚɞɢ ɭɩɨɪɟɻɢɜɚʃɚ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. ɦɟɯɚɧɢɱɤɟ ɡɚɤɨɧɢɬɨɫɬɢ ɭɡɪɨɱɧɨ-ɩɨɫɥɟɞɢɱɧɢɯ ɜɟɡɚ. ɇɚɢɦɟ.

Ɉ ɬɨɦɟ ɜɢɲɟ:Champod/Ewett ɢ ɞɪɭɝɢ: Harmonising the Scale of Conclusion-the Bayesian Approach. ɚɧɬɚɝɨɧɢɫɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɩɚɪɨɜɚ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ.ɧɚʁɱɟɲʄɟ ɫɟ ɫɟ ɦɨɪɚ ɩɨɫɬɚɜɢɬɢ ɜɢɲɟ ɬɚɤɜɢɯ. Ɉɞɪɟ- ɻɢɜɚʃɟ ɲɚɧɫɟ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ʁɟ ɡɚɞɚɬɚɤ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɞɨɤ ʁɟ ɨɞɪɟɻɢɜɚʃɟ ɚ-ɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧ- ɫɟ ɢ ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɜɚʃɟ ɚ ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧɫɟ ɩɨɦɨʄɭ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɟ ɢ ɲɚɧɫɟ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ (likelihood ratio) ɤɨʁɭ ʁɟ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɨ ɜɟɲɬɚɤ.ɇɢɜɨ ɩɨɪɟɤɥɚ(ɧɚɫɬɚɜɚɤ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɚ)Ɍɪɚɝ ɫɩɟɪɦɟ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɥɢɰɚ X(+)- ɬɪɚɝ ɫɩɟɪɦɟ ɩɨɬɢɱɟ ɨɞ ɞɪɭɝɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ(-) ɇɟʄɟɦɨ ɫɟ ɭɩɭɲɬɚɬɢ ɭ ɢɡɥɚɝɚʃɟ ɤɨɦɩɥɢɤɨɜɚɧɢɯ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɨɩɟɪɚ- ɰɢʁɚ ɡɚ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚʃɟ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɨ-ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɪɟɥɚɰɢʁɚ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɜɟʄ ʄɟɦɨ ɫɟ ɡɚɞɪɠɚɬɢ ɧɚ ɬɡɜ. ɩɨ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɨʁ ɲɟɦɢ: 1. Ɋɚɞɢ ɢɫɩɭ- ʃɟʃɚ ɨɜɨɝ ɡɚɞʃɟɝ ɭɫɥɨɜɚ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ.ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ -E . 3.ɉɪɚɜɢɥɧɨɫɬ ɭɬɜɪ- ɻɟɧɟ ɚ-ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧɫɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɢɤɨɜɟ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɭ ɜɟɥɢɤɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɡɚɜɢɫɢ ɨɞ ɩɨɥɚɡɧɢɯ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ. Ɂɚ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɩɨɫɬɚɜʂɚʁɭ ɫɟ ʁɟɞɧɚ ɚɮɢɪɦɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ ɢ ʁɟɞɧɚ ɧɟɝɢɪɚʁɭʄɚ .ɇɢɜɨ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ-ɉɪɢɦɟɪ:Ʌɢɰɟ X ʁɟ ɫɢɥɨɜɚɥɨ ɥɢɰɟ Ɂ[ɚɮɢɪɦɚɰɢʁɚ(+)]-ɥɢɰɟ Ɂ ʁɟ ɫɢɥɨɜɚɥɨ ɞɪɭɝɨ ɥɢɰɟ.Information Bulletin for SPTM.Encyclopedia of Forensic Science. 23 –––––––––– 22 Ɉɰɟɧɚ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ ɧɚ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ʁɟ ɞɚɧɚɫ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚɬɢɱɧɨ ɩɨɞɪɭɱʁɟ ɩɪɚɜɨɫɭɞ- ɧɟ ɩɪɚɤɫɟ ɢ ɭ ȿɜɪɨɩɫɤɨʁ ɍɧɢʁɢ . ɯɢʁɟɪɚɪ- ɯɢʁɫɤɢ ɩɨɪɟɻɚɧɢɯ.Ȼɚʁɟɫ –ɮɚɤɬɨɪɭ P(Hp/E) = P(Hp) x P(/Hp) P(Hd/E) P(Hd) P(E/Hd) Ƚɞɟ ʁɟ: -ɉ( ) . ɭ : Siegel. 2/2014 ɦɟ22.Ɉɜɟ ɞɜɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɦɟɻɭ- ɫɨɛɧɨ ɢɫɤʂɭɱɭʁɭ ɢ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɞɚ ɩɨɤɪɢʁɭ ɰɟɥɨɤɭɩɧɨ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɱɧɨ ɫɬɚʃɟ. Ʉɨɞ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɜɚɠɚɧ ɡɚɯɬɟɜ ʁɟ ɩɨɫɬɚɜʂɚʃɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ (ɩɪɨ- ɩɨɡɢɰɢʁɚ ɭ ɟɧɝɥɟɫɤɨʁ ɜɟɪɡɢʁɢ).Statistical Interpretation of Evidence/Bayesian Analysis.717.ɧɟɝɢɪɚʁɭʄɚ(-) ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ -/.ɫɬɪ. ɚ ɧɟ X[ɧɟɝɚɰɢʁɚ(-) ].Ʉɨɞ ɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɨɞɪɟɞɢɬɢ ɞɜɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ: ɫɪɟɡɦɟɪɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ (likelihood ratio) ɢ ɚ-ɩɪɢɨɪɢ ɲɚɧɫɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ.ɚɮɢɪɦɚɬɢɜɧɚ(+) ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ -ɏɞ .ɇɢɜɨ ɪɚɞʃɟ-(ɧɚɫɬɚɜɚɤ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɚ).ɡɧɚɤ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ-ɨɡɧɚɱɚɜɚ ɩɨɫɬɨʁɚʃɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢɡɦɟɻɭ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ E ɢ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ ɏɞ ɨɞɧɨɫɧɨ ɏɩ (ɫɬɟɩɟɧ ɢɫɩɪɚɜɧɨ- ɫɬɢ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ E ɩɪɢ ɚɮɢɪɦɚɬɢɜɧɨʁ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɢ ɏɩ).SanDiego.ɦɢɲʂɟʃɟ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ -ɏɪ .3/2000 23 Aitken. Ʌɢɰɟ Ɂ ʁɟ ɢɦɚɥɨ ɩɨɥɧɢ ɨɞɧɨɫ ɫɚ ɥɢ- ɰɟɦ X(+)-Ʌɢɰɟ Ɂ ʁɟ ɢɦɚɥɨ ɩɨɥɧɢ ɨɞɧɨɫ ɫɚ ɞɪɭɝɢɦ ɥɢɰɟɦ ɚ ɧɟ ɫɚ X(-).ɡɚɞɚɬɚɤ ɫɭɞɚ. 2. 185 .ɛɪ.2ooo. ȳɟɞɧɨ ɨɞ ɝɥɚɜɧɢɯ ɩɨɞɪɭɱʁɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɩɤɭ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɨɰɟɧɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɝ ɧɚɥɚɡɚ ɢ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ.

ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ) ɢ ɧɟ ɡɚɯɬɟɜɚ ɫɟ ɧɭɦɟɪɢɱɤɨ ɢɡ- ɪɚɠɚɜɚʃɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɱɚɤ ɧɢ ɚɤɨ ɫɭ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɚɝɚʃɭ ɬɚɱɧɢ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɢ ɩɨɞɚ- ɰɢ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɨɝ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ24.ɧɚɤɨɧ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ.3/2001. ɤɨʁɟ ɫɭ ɨɬɤɪɢɜɟɧɟ ɭ ɬɨɤɭ ɞɨɤɚ- ɡɢɜɚʃɚ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ. Ɇɟɬɨɞɨɥɨɝɢʁɚ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɬɟɬɚ ɨɜɢɦ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɦ ʁɟ ʁɨɲ ɭ ɮɚ- ɡɢ ɪɚɡɜɨʁɚ. ɩɨɫɬɟɪɢɨɪɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ. –––––––––– 24 Weir. ɡɚ ɩɨɥɚɡɧɭ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɫɟ ɭɡɢɦɚ ɩɪɟɬɯɨɞɧɚ(ɚɩɪɢɨɪɢ) ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ. ɬʁ.DNA Match and Profile Probabilities. Ʉɚɤɨ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɟ.000 ɡɧɚɱɢ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɬɭ ɩɨɞɪɲɤɭ. ɍ ɬɨɤɭ ɭɩɨɪɟɻɟʃɚ ɫɚɞɪɠɢɧɟ ɞɜɟ ɫɭɩɪɨɬɫɬɚɜʂɟɧɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɬɢ. ɨɞ- ɪɟɻɭʁɟ ɧɚɤɧɚɞɧɚ.ɛɪɨʁ 1. ɩɪɨɮɢɥ-ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ ɢ match-ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ (alterego . Ɉɞ- ɧɨɫ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɢ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɨ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɬɢ: . ɚ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬ- ɧɨʄɚ ɫɟ ɬɭɦɚɱɢ ɤɚɨ ɦɟɪɚ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɝ ɭɜɟɪɟʃɚ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ ɨ ɧɟ- ɤɨɦ ɪɚɫɩɪɚɜʂɚɧɨɦ ɞɨɝɚɻɚʁɭ ɢɥɢ ɩɨʁɚɜɢ. ɤɨʁɚ ʁɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ (ɚɮɢɪɦɚɬɢɜɧɚ ɢɥɢ ɧɟɝɚɬɢɜɧɚ)ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɢʁɚ.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ.ɛɪ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɝɨɞɧɚ ɡɚ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɢɯ ɢ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɢɯ ɨɞ- ɧɨɫɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɢ ʃɢɯɨɜɟ ɦɟɻɭɫɨɛɧɟ ɜɟɡɟ. 186 . ɧɟɦɚ ɩɨɞɪɲɤɭ ɧɢ ʁɟɞɧɚ ɨɞ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ. ɉɪɟɦɚ ɞɪɭɝɨɦ ɫɯɜɚɬɚʃɭ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɪɚɡɥɢɤɨɜɚɬɢ ɬɡɜ. ɍ ɬɨɦ ɰɢʂɭ ɫɭɞɢʁɚ ɢɫɩɢɬɭʁɟ ɢ ɩɪɨɜɟɪɚɜɚ ɩɪɟɬɯɨɞɧɨ ɩɨɫɬɚɜʂɟɧɟ ɚɧɬɚɝɨɧɢɫɬɢɱɤɟ ɯɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɢ ɧɚɤɨɧ ʃɢɯɨ- ɜɨɝ ɭɩɨɪɟɻɟʃɚ ɭɬɜɪɻɭʁɟ ɫɪɚɡɦɟɪɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ(likelihood ratio): ɉ(ɏɩ) ɉ(ɏɞ) ɇɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɪɟɱɟɧɨɝ. 173–192) Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɨɦ. ɞɨɤ ʁɟ ɨɞɪɟɻɢɜɚʃɟ ɨɞɧɨɫɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ (Likelihood ratio) ɡɚɞɚɬɚɤ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. Ɂɚ ɞɜɟ ɞɟɰɟɧɢʁɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ. ɡɚɞɚ- ɬɚɤ ɫɭɞɚ. . ɩɪɟ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɬɚɤɨ ɢ ɧɚɤɧɚɞɧɟ ɜɟɪɨ- ɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ.ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɨɞ ɩɪɟɤɨ 10. ɢ ɞɚʂɟ ɞɨ ɛɟɫɤɨɧɚɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɡɧɚɱɟ ɩɨɞɪɲɤɭ. ɢ ɨɫɥɚʃɚʁɭʄɢ ɫɟ ɧɚ ɭɫɥɨɜɧɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ. ɞɚ ɫɟ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɢ ɭ ɤɨʁɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɨɧ ɭɬɢɱɟ ɧɚ ɢɫɯɨɞ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɚ. Ɍɨɤɨɦ ɬɟ ɪɚɞʃɟ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɟ ɪɟɥɚɰɢʁɟ ɫɟ ɭɬɜɪɻɭʁɭ ɭɩɨɡɧɚɜɚʃɟɦ ɢ ɨɰɟ- ɧɨɦ ɪɟɥɟɜɚɧɬɧɢɯ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ ɫɚ ɚɫɩɟɤɬɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ.Forensic Science Communikations.ɛɪɨʁ 2. ɤɚɫɧɢʁɟ ɢɡɪɚɻɟɧɨ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɟ ȿ (ɢ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɰɢ ɢ ɬɜɪɞʃɟ ɭ ʃɟɦɭ). ɡɚɭ- ɡɟɬ ʁɟ ɫɬɚɜ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɨɰɟɧɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɟ ɫɧɚɝɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɜɟɡɢ ʃɢɯ. . ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. ɭ ɝɨɪʃɟɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɭ. ɡɚɬɢɦ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɝɨɞɧɚ ɡɚ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɟ ɫɧɚ- ɝɟ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɝ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ. ɍɦɟɫɬɨ ɤɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɚ ɨɞɧɨɫɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ (likelihood ratio) ɭ ʁɟɞɧɨɫɬɚɜ- ɧɢʁɢɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɟɜɢɦɚ ɫɟ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟʂɢ ɪɟɬɤɨɫɬɢ. ɡɧɚɱɢ ɧɟɭɬɪɚɥɧɨɫɬ.

ɤɨɦ- 187 . ɜɟɲɬɚɤ ɞɚʁɟ ɫɜɨʁɟ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɟ ɨ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɬɟɬɭ ɢɥɢ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɢɬɨɫɬɢ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɢɯ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ ɢɥɢ ɬɡɜ.ɤɨɪɢɫɬɟʄɢ ɨɞɝɨɜɚɪɚʁɭʄɟ ȾɇɄ ɛɚɡɟ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ. Ʉɨɞ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɨɧɨɝ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚʃɚ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚɰɚ ɧɚɻɟɧɢɯ ɧɚ ɦɟɫɬɭ ɢɡɜɪ- ɲɟʃɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ.ɧɚ ɬɟɥɭ ɠɪɬɜɟ ɢɥɢ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ. Ɉɰɟɧɭ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɨɧɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɛɢɨɥɨɲɤɨɝ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥɚ ɡɧɚɬɧɨ ʁɟ ɨɥɚɤɲɚɥɨ ɨɬɤɪɢʄɟ ɜɢɫɨɤɨ ɫɟɥɟɤɬɢɜɧɟ ȾɇɄ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ. Ʉɨɞ ȾɇɄ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ. 2/2014 2. ɇɚ ɧɟɤɢɦ ɩɨɞɪɭɱʁɢɦɚ ɫɟ ʁɚ- ɜʂɚʁɭ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɱɧɢ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢ ɨɞ ɤɨʁɢɯ ʄɟɦɨ ɧɟɤɟ ɩɨɦɟɧɭɬɢ. ȼɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ʃɢɯɨɜɟ ɢɫɬɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɟ ɩɪɢɫɭɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɞ ɧɟɤɨɝ ɥɢɰɚ ʁɟ 10% x10% x10%=0.ɩɨɦɨʄɭ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɬɢ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɭ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɨɜɨɦ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɤɭ ɢ ɨɰɟɧɢɬɢ ɢ ʃɟɧɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɚ ɫɧɚɝɚ. ɞɟɥɨɜɢ ɬɟɥɚ. ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɨɩɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚ ʁɟ 100%-0. Ɋɚɡɥɢ- ɤɟ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɨɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ ɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɟ ʃɢɯɨɜɟ ɨɛɪɚɞɟ ɧɭɠɧɨ ɭɬɢɱɭ ɢ ɧɚ ɦɟɬɨɞɟ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɚ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ʃɢɦɚ.Ⱥɥɢ ɭɬɜɪɻɢ- ɜɚʃɟ ɬɨɝ ɛɪɨʁɚ ɧɢʁɟ ɭ ɧɚɞɥɟɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. ɉɪɢɦɟɪ: Ʉɨɞ ʁɟɞɧɨɝ ɤɪɜɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɢɤɬɚ ʁɟ ȾɇɄ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɨɦ ʁɟ ɢɫɤɚɡɚɧɨ 3 ɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɞ ɤɨʁɢɯ ʁɟ ɫɜɚɤɚ ɩɨɫɟɛɧɨ ɩɪɢɫɭɬɧɚ ɤɨɞ 10% ɫɬɚɧɨɜɧɢɲɬɜɚ.2.9% ɉɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɨɜɨɝ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɤɚ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɫɜɚɤɚɤɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɚɜɢɬɢ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɚ ɩɢɬɚʃɚ: – ɞɚɥɢ ʁɟ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɧɨ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ(ɩɪɨɜɟɪɚ ɪɟɩɪɟɡɟɧɬɚ- ɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ-ɞɚ ɥɢ ʁɟ ɜɟɲɬɚɤ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɢɨ ɨɞɝɨɜɚɪɚʁɭʄɭ ɛɚɡɭ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ) .ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɢɦ ɩɭɬɟɦ ɧɚɫɬɚɥɢ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢ ɢɥɢ ɫɭ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɤɢ.ɤɨʁɢ ɛɪɨʁ ɥɢɰɚ ɞɨɥɚɡɢ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɭ ɫɜɨʁɫɬɜɭ ɦɨɝɭʄɟɝ ɭɱɢɧɢɨɰɚ. ɇɟɤɟ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɤɨɞ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɨɧɢɯ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɂɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɨɧɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɫɭ ɢɡɭɡɟɬɧɨ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɚ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨ- ɫɬɭɩɤɭ.1% ɬɡɜ. – ɞɚ ɥɢ ʁɟ ɞɨɛɪɨ ɢɡɪɚɱɭɧɚɬɚ ýɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɨɩɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚý ɍ ɨɜɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɭ ɧɚ ɚɩɪɢɨɪɧɭ (ɩɨɱɟɬɧɭ) ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɭ ɭɬɢɱɟ .ɋɚɫɜɢɦ ʁɟ ɥɨɝɢɱɧɨ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɬɨɤ ɢɞɟɧɬɢ- ɮɢɤɚɰɢɨɧɨɝ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɚ ɞɪɭɝɚɱɢʁɢ ɤɚɞɚ ɫɭ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚʃɚ ɠɢɜɚ ɛɢʄɚ. ɇɚ ɬɨɤ ɢ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɭ ɛɢɬɧɨʁ ɦɟɪɢ ɭɬɢɱɭ ɤɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢ- ɤɟ ɢɫɩɢɬɢɜɚɧɨɝ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɚ ɢɥɢ ɩɨʁɚɜɟ.) ɢ ɨɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɫɭ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɬ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɢɯ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɲɤɢɯ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɚɤɚ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ. – ɞɚ ɥɢ ɫɭ ɢɫɤɚɡɚɧɚ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɚ ʁɟɞɚ ɨɞ ɞɪɭɝɟ.1=99. ʄɟɥɢʁɟ ɢ ɫɥ. ɩɪɢɦɟɧɚ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɢɪɚɥɚ ʁɟ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɢɬɢɦ ɢɫɤɭɫɬɜɢɦɚ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɨɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ ɛɢɨɥɨɲɤɨɝ ɩɨɪɟɤɥɚ (ɠɢɜɚ ɛɢʄɚ. ɉɪɢ ɫɭɞɫɤɨʁ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɨɧɢɯ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ.ɞɪɭ- ɝɢ.

Budapest. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. ɨɪɭɠʁɚ ɢɬɞ.177. 188 .ɐɢʂ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ʁɟ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɭɬɜɪɞɢ ɞɚ ɥɢ ʁɟ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɱɧɨɫɬ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɢɯ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ (ɬʁ.ȼɟɥɢɤɢ ɞɟɨ ɬɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɚ ɫɟ ɦɚɫɨɜɧɨ ɩɪɨɢɡ- ɜɨɞɢ (ɧɩɪ. –––––––––– 25 Bodziak.ɬɪɚɝ ɨɛɭʄɟ.2002. Ʉɨɞ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɬɪɚɝɨɜɚ ɧɚɫɬɚɥɢɯ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɱɤɨɦ ɫɢ- ɥɨɦ(ɧɩɪ. ýɪɚɡɦɟɧɚý ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ ɦɟɻɭ ɭɱɟɫɧɢɰɢɦɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ. ɚɥɢ ɭɡ ɩɨɜɨʂɧɟ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬɢ.ȾɇɄ). ɰɢɩɟɥɟ) ɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɧɢɦ ɬɪɝɨɜɚɱɤɢɦ ɦɪɟɠɚɦɚ ɞɢɫɬɪɢɛɭɢɪɚ ɲɢɪɨɦ ɫɜɟɬɚ. Ⱦɟɮɢɧɢɫɚʃɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢʁɟ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚɰɚ ɫɚ ɦɟɫɬɚ ɢɡɜɪɲɟʃɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɝ ɞɟɥɚ. ɞɨɜɨʂ- ɧɨ ɫɚɦɨ ɡɚ ɝɪɭɩɧɭ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɭ. Ʉɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚ ɨɜɢɯ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ʁɟ ɛɟɡɝɪɚɧɢɱɧɚ ɪɚɡɧɨɥɢɤɨɫɬ ɢ ɛɪɨʁ- ɧɨɫɬ ɨɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ. Ɉɫɧɨɜ ɨɰɟɧɟ ʁɟ ɧɚɥɚɠɟʃɟ ɢ ɭɩɨɪɟɻɟʃɟ ɪɚɡɧɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ(ɞɟ- ɛʂɢɧɚ.A kriminalisztika és a bĦnügyi tudományok.). ɢɬɞ. Ⱦɚ ɛɢ ɫɟ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɦɨɝɥɚ ɨɜɚɤɨ ɞɢ- ɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɪɚɬɢ. ɪɚɱɭɧ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ʁɟ ɩɨɝɨ- ɞɚɧ ɡɚ ɞɟɮɢɧɢɫɚʃɟ ɢ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚʃɟ ɩɨɜɟʄɚɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɟ ɫɧɚɝɟ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ ɜɟ- ɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɰɢɦɚ ɨɬɤɪɢɜɟɧɢɯ ɧɚ ɨɞɟɥɭ ɠɪɬɜɟ ɢ ɨɫɭɦʃɢɱɟɧɨɝ. ɜɟɲɬɚɤ ɬɪɟɛɚ ɞɚ ɭɬɜɪɞɢ ɞɚ ɥɢ ɫɭ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɨɞɪɚɠɟɧɚ ɭ ɬɪɚɝɭ ɧɚɫɬɚɥɚ ɬɨɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞʃɟ.Footwear Impression Evidence. ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɭɬɜɪɞɢɬɢ ɢ ɢɫɬɨɜɟɬɧɨɫɬ ɩɨɪɟɤɥɚ (ɢɫɬɨɜɟɬɧɨ ɦɟɫɬɨ ɢ ɜɪɟɦɟ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞʃɟ ɫɩɨɪɧɨɝ ɢ ɧɟɫɩɨɪɧɨɝ ɭɡɨɪɤɚ). Ɍɨ ʁɟ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɟ ɫɬɪɢɤɬɧɨ ɩɨɫɦɚɬɪɚɧɨ. ɫɬɪ. ɩɪɟɦɚ: Katona. ɛɨʁɚ. Ʉɨɞ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɬɟɤɫɬɢɥɧɢɯ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ ɞɨɫɬɚ ʁɟ ɱɟɫɬɚ ɩɨʁɚɜɚ ɭɤɪɲɬɚɜɚʃɟ ɬɪɚɝɨɜɚ (ɬʁ. ɍ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɨɜɚɤɜɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɚ ɦɚɫɨɜɧɟ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞʃɟ ɚɦɟɪɢɱɤɢ ɫɬɪɭɱ- ʃɚɰɢ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɟ ɩɨʁɚɦ ýɧɟɦɨɝɭʄɧɨɫɬ ɪɚɡɥɢɤɨɜɚʃɚýɢ ɫɦɚɬɪɚʁɭ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɦ ɡɚ ɢɫ- ɤɥɭɱɟʃɟ ɢɧɞɢɜɢɞɭɚɥɧɟ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ25. ɇɚɪɨɱɢɬɭ ɩɚɠʃɭ ɜɚʂɚ ɩɨɫɜɟɬɢɬɢ ɪɚɡɧɢɦ ɬɚ- ɥɨɡɢɦɚ ɫɬɪɚɧɨɝ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥɚ ɧɚ ɜɥɚɤɧɢɦɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɫɭ ɧɚɫɬɚɥɢ ɬɨɤɨɦ ɭɩɨɬɪɟɛɟ ɢɥɢ ɫɤɥɚɞɢɲɬɟʃɚ. ɤɨ- ɪɢɲʄɟʃɚ ɢɥɢ ɩɨɩɪɚɜɤɟ ɫɬɜɚɪɚɨɰɚ ɬɪɚɝɚ. ɋɚ ɚɫɩɟɤɬɚ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ ʁɟ ɧɚɪɨɱɢ- ɬɨ ʁɟ ɜɚɠɚɧ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɚɤ ɛɨʁɟʃɚ.). 173–192) ɩɥɟɬɧɟ ɫɥɢɤɟ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ. ɩɨɜɟʄɚɜɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɭ ɫɧɚɝɭ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɤɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ.ɧɚʁɱɟɲʄɟ ɭɱɢɧɢɨɰɚ ɢ ɨɲɬɟʄɟɧɨɝ).ɍ ɬɚɤɜɢɦ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɟɜɢɦɚ. ɯɟɦɢʁɫɤɢ ɫɚɫɬɚɜ. ɢɞɟɧɬɢɱɧɨɫɬ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɫɩɨɪɧɢɯ ɢ ɧɟ- ɫɩɨɪɧɢɯ ɭɡɨɪɚɤɚ) ɢɥɢ ýɤɨɦɩɥɟɬɧɟ ɫɥɢɤɟý ɜɥɚɤɚɧɚ ɫɚɦɨ ɩɭɤɚ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɧɨɫɬ ɢɥɢ ʁɟ ɬɨ ɭ ɧɟɤɨʁ ɜɟɡɢ ɫɚ ɢɡɜɪɲɟɧɢɦ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɢɦ ɞɟɥɨɦ. ɰɢɬ. Ɉɰɟɧɭ ɨɬɟɠɚɜɚ ɞɚ ɩɨ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɭ ɧɟɦɚ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɪɚɫɩɪɨɫɬɪɚʃɟɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɢɯ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥɚ (ɬɤɚɧɢ- ɧɚ) ɩɚ ɫɟ ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɨ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɬɢ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɤɚɨ ɤɨɞ ɧɟɤɢɯ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ (ɧɩɪ. ɚɭɬɨɝɭɦɟ. Ȼɪɨʁɱɚɧɚ ɜɪɟɞ- ɧɨɫɬ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɩɨɧɚɜʂɚʃɚ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢʁɟ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɜɥɚɤɚɧɰɚ ɭ ýɩɨɬɩɭɧɨʁ ɫɥɢɰɢý ɞɨɛɢʁɚ ɫɟ ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɦɟɻɭɫɨɛɧɨ ɩɨɦɧɨɠɟ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɧɢɯ ɨɛɟ- ɥɟɠʁɚ. ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɧɨ ʁɟ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɚɠɟ ɫɚ ɞɨɛɪɨ ɨɛɪɚɻɟɧɢɦ ɢ ɚɠɭɪ- ɧɢɦ ɡɛɢɪɤɚɦɚ ɭɡɨɪɚɤɚ.ɪɚɡɧɢɯ ɨɪɭɻɚ.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ.

ɞɚ ɫɟ ɢɩɚɤ ɪɚɞɢ ɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɢ. Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ɫɟ ɭɱɟɫɬɚɥɨɫɬ ɩɨʁɟɞɢɧɢɯ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɟɝɡɚɤɬɧɨ.ýɩɨɡɚɞɢɧɫɤɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɟý ɢɥɢ ý ɧɢɜɨ ɥɢɱɧɟ ɢɧɮɨɪ- ɦɢɫɚɧɨɫɬɢý ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɚ ɤɨʁɢ ɜɪɲɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɭ(ɬʁ. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɜɟɨɦɚ ɤɨɪɢɫɧɚ.ɩɪɢɫɭɬɧɢ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɢ ɟɥɟɦɟɧɬɢ. ɭ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɭ ɜɟɪɛɚɥɧɨ-ɨɩɢɫɧɢ. ɉɪɨ- ɛɥɟɦɚɬɢɱɧɨ ʁɟ.ɚɥɢ ɬɨ ɡɚɫɚɞ ɧɟ ɦɟʃɚ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɭ. ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ʃɟɝɨɜɨɝ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫɚ.ɍ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɨʁ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɢ ɢ ɬɨ ɫɟ ɭɡɢɦɚ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɢ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɜɚ ɫɚ ɫɥɨɜɨɦ ɢ (ɫɬɚʃɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɢɫɚ- ɧɨɫɬɢ) 189 . 2/2014 ɍ ɩɪɚɤɫɢ ɫɭ ɞɨɫɬɚ ɱɟɫɬɢ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɟɜɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫɚ.Ɉɰɟɧɚ ɢɡɜɟ- ɲɬɚʁɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ – ɫɬɪɭɱʃɚɤɚ ɡɚ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫ ʁɟ ɩɨɫɟɛɧɨ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚɬɢɱɧɚ. ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɭɦɟɧɬ ɫɭ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɮɚɥɫɢɮɢɤɨɜɚɬɢ ɫɚɦɨ ɬɚɱɧɨ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɢ ɫɥɭɠɛɟɧɢɰɢ ɭ ɧɟɤɨɦ ɩɪɟɞɭ- ɡɟʄɭ).ʁɟɪ ʁɟ ɪɭ- ɤɨɩɢɫ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɱɧɢɯ ɩɫɢɯɨɦɨɬɨɪɢɱɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɚ ɫɚ ɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢʁɚ- ɛɢɥɧɢɯ ɟɥɟɦɟɧɚɬɚ.Ɍɨ ɛɢ ɛɢɥɨ ɭ ɫɭɩɪɨɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɚ ɫɥɨɛɨɞɨɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ.Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ʁɟ ɪɚɡɭɦʂɢɜɨ ɞɚ ʁɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɚ ɫɧɚɝɚ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɤɚ ɜɟ- ɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɭɬɜɪɻɢɜɚʃɭ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɬɟɬɚ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫɚ. Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ʁɟ ɢɡɝɥɟɞɚ ɧɚʁɛɨʂɢ ɨɛɥɢɤ ɢɡɪɚɠɚɜɚʃɚ ɡɚ- ɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɡɚ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫ ɞɨɛɢʁɟɧɢɯ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɨɦ. Ɋɟɡɭɥɬɚɬɢ ɞɨɫɚɞɚɲʃɢɯ ɢɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚʃɚ ɦɨɝɭ ɩɨ- ʁɚɱɚɬɢ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɟ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. ɞɚ ɢ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫ ɢɫɬɟ ɨɫɨɛɟ ɜɚɪɢɪɚ (ɢɧɬɪɚɢɧɞɢɜɢɞɭɚɥɧɨɫɬ) ɢ ɦɨɠɟ ɞɨʄɢ ɞɨ ɩɪɨɦɟɧɟ ɜɟɥɢɤɨɝ ɛɪɨʁɚ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ. . ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬ ɠɟɫɬɨɤɟ ɞɢ- ɫɤɭɫɢʁɟ ɲɢɪɨɦ ɫɜɟɬɚ. ɭ ɦɧɨɝɢɦ ɡɟɦʂɚɦ ɫɭɞɨɜɢ ɫɭ ɫɭɦʃɢɱɚɜɢ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɩɨɭɡɞɚɧɨɫɬɢ ɬɚɤɜɢɯ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɨɦɨɝɭʄɚɜɚ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɟ ɫɧɚɝɟ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɭɬɜɪɻɟɧɨɦ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɬɟɬɭ. ɋɭɦʃɟ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɩɨɭɡɞɚɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫɚ ɧɟ ɡɧɚɱɢ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɬɚɤɜɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɧɟ ɫɦɟʁɭ ɨɛɚɜʂɚɬɢ ɭ ɤɪɢɜɢɱɧɨɦ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɤɭ. Ɉɧɚ ʁɟ ɧɚɪɨɱɢɬɨ ɩɨ- ɝɨɞɧɚ ɡɚ ɬɭ ɫɜɪɯɭ -ʁɟɪ ɫɭ ɭ ɨɜɢɦ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɢɦɚ ɧɚɝɥɚɲɟɧɢʁɟ ɧɟɝɨ ɤɨɞ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ. Ɇɨɞɟɥ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɬɟɬɭ ɧɚ ɧɢɜɨɭ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭɤʂɭɱɭʁɟ ɭ ɫɟɛɟ ɢ ɬɡɜ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ.ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɨ ɢɫɤɚɡɚɬɢ. Ɂɛɨɝ ɛɪɨʁɧɢɯ ɝɪɟɲɚɤɚ. Ʉɪɢɬɢɤɟ ɢ ɫɭɦʃɟ ɭ ɩɨɝɥɟɞɭ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢʁɟ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫɚ ɧɚ- ɝɥɚɲɚɜɚʁɭ ɧɭɠɧɨɫɬ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ ɧɚɭɱɧɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. ɍɩɪɤɨɫ ɛɪɨʁɧɢɦ ɢɫɬɪɚɠɢɜɚʃɢɦɚ ʁɨɲ ɧɢɫɭ ɨɬɤɪɢɜɟɧɚ ɢ ɨɛɪɚɻɟɧɚ ɫɜɚ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɚ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫɚ.ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ).ɚɥɢ ʁɟ ɧɟɨɩɯɨɞɚɧ ɨɩɪɟɡ ɢ ɛɪɢɠʂɢɜɚ ɨɰɟɧɚ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɨɞ ɫɬɪɚɧɟ ɫɭɞɚ. Ⱥɤɫɢɨɦ ɢɧɞɢɜɢɞɭɚɥɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɫɤʂɭɱɭʁɟ ɞɚ ɞɜɚ ɥɢɰɚ ɢɦɚʁɭ ɩɨɬɩɭɧɨ ɢɫɬɢ ɪɭɤɨɩɢɫ ɩɨ ɫɜɢɦ ɨɛɟɥɟɠʁɢɦɚ (ɢɧɬɟɪɢɧɞɢɜɢɞɭɚɥɧɨɫɬ).Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɨɦ ɫɟ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɰɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ ɰɟɧɟ ɡɚʁɟɞɧɨ ɫɚ ɞɪɭɝɢɦ ɞɨ- ɤɚɡɢɦɚ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɝ ɫɥɭɱɚʁɚ. -ɚɤɨ ʁɟ ɤɪɭɝ ɦɨɝɭʄɢɯ ɭɱɢɧɢɥɚɰɚ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧ (ɧɩɪ. Ⱦɚɤɥɟ ɦɨɝɭʄɟ ʁɟ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɨɜɚɬɢ ɧɟɤɨ ɥɢɰɟ ɭ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɭ.

ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. Ɉɰɟɧɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɟ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɨ- ɤɚɡɧɨɝ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥɚ ɜɪɲɢ ɫɟ ɢ ɞɚɧɚɫ ɭ ɫɭɲɬɢɧɢ ɩɨ ɨɫɟʄɚʁɭ. ɧɚɩɨɪɢ ɡɚ ɢɡɧɚɥɚɠɟʃɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɡɚ ɨɛʁɟɤ- ɬɢɜɢɡɚɰɢʁɭ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɫɭ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɢ ɢ ɨɩɪɚɜɞɚɧɢ. ɤɨʁɟ ɨɦɨɝɭʄɚɜɚʁɭ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɭ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɭɩɨɡɧɚ ɫɚ ɫɜɢɦ ɨɤɨɥɧɨɫɬɢɦɚ ɭ ɜɟɡɢ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ.ɫɬɪ. . ɋɚɫɜɢɦ ʁɟ ɢɡɜɟɫɧɨ ɞɚ ɛɢ ɭɧɨɲɟʃɟɦ ɟɝɡɚɤɬ- ɧɢɯ. Ɇɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɭɤɚɡɚɬɢ ɧɚ ɧɟɤɟ ɟɥɟɦɟɧɬɟ ɬɨɝ ɩɨʁɦɚ. ɇɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɫɟ ɩɨɪɟʄɢ ɱɢʃɟɧɢɰɚ ɞɚ ɨɞ ɥɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɭɞɢʁɟ (ɢɥɢ ɬɭɠɢɨɰɚ) ɡɚ- ɜɢɫɢ ɤɜɚɥɢɬɟɬ ɢ ɤɜɚɧɬɢɬɟɬ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɧɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɨɝ ɦɚɬɟɪɢʁɚɥɚ ɡɚ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɚʃɟ ɭɧɭɬɪɚɲʃɟɝ ɭɜɟɪɟʃɚ ɨ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɭ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɜɚʃɚ. ɝɨɜɨɪɟ ɤɪɭɩɧɢ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɢ.ɇɚɪɨɱɢɬɨ ɤɨɪɢɫɧɚ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɬɟɨɪɟɦɚ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɫɟ ɡɚɫɧɢɜɚ ɧɚ ɬɡɜ.ɫɚɦɨ ɩɪɢɦɟ- ɧɨɦ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɢɬɢ ɪɟɲɟɧ ɫɥɭɱɚʁ ɩɪɟɞ ɫɭɞɨɦ. Ɍɨ ɛɢ ɛɢɥɢ: . ɧɚɝɨɧɫɤɢ(ɢ ɩɨɪɟɞ ɨɛɚɜɟɡɟ ɨɛɪɚɡɥɚɝɚʃɚ ɤɨɧɚɱɧɟ ɨɞɥɭɤɟ). ɚ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɢɜɟ ɩɨɡɚɞɢɧɫɤɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɟ. ɉɟɪɦɚɧɟɬɧɨ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɧɟ ɛɚɡɟ ɩɨɞɚɬɚɤɚ ɨɦɨɝɭʄɚɜɚʁɭ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɩɪɢ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɭ ɧɟ ɭɡɢɦɚ ɭ ɨɛɡɢɪ ɛɟɫɤɪɚʁ- ɧɨ ɜɟɥɢɤɢ ɛɪɨʁ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢʁɚɥɧɨ ɫɭɦʃɢɜɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬɚ ɢ ɥɢɰɚ ɜɟʄ ʁɟɞɚɧ ɨɝɪɚɧɢ- ɱɟɧɢ ɤɪɭɝ ɪɟɥɟɜɚɧɬɧɟ ɩɨɩɭɥɚɰɢʁɟ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɦɨɠɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɢ ɤɨɥɢɤɚ ʁɟ –––––––––– 26 Haller –Klein.ɤɨɧɚɱɚɧ ɪɟ- ɡɭɥɬɚɬ ɛɢɨ ɤɜɚɥɢɬɟɬɧɢʁɢ.Ɂɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ . ɇɚɢɦɟ. . ɧɚɪɨɱɢɬɨ ɚɤɨ ɫɟ ɪɚɞɢ ɨ ɩɪɨɬɢɜɪɟɱ- ɧɢɦ ɞɨɤɚɡɢɦɚ26.ɨɩɲɬɚ ɢ ɫɩɟɰɢʁɚɥɧɚ ɡɧɚʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɭ ʁɟɞɚɧ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɬɨ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɢ ɩɪɨɰɟɫ. ȼɟɥɢɤɚ ɦɭ ʁɟ ɩɪɟɞɧɨɫɬ ɲɬɨ ɫɜɨʁɨɦ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɲʄɭ ɦɨɠɟ ɩɨɦɨʄɢ ɫɭɞɢʁɢ ɭ ɢɡɜɥɚɱɚʃɭ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɧɢɯ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɚɤɚ ɢɡ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɢɜɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.ɩɨɡɚɞɢɧɫɤɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢʁɟ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɚɝɚʃɭ. Ɉɧɢ ɦɨɝɭ ɩɪɭɠɢɬɢ ʁɟɞɧɨ ɨɛʁɟɤɬɢɜɧɨ ɦɟɪɢɥɨ ɭ ɫɥɨɠɟɧɨɦ ɩɫɢɯɢɱɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɭ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.ɩɪɚɜɧɢɦ ɩɪɨɩɢɫɢɦɚ ɫɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɞɟ- ɥɢɦɢɱɧɨ ɭɬɢɰɚɬɢ ɧɚ ɬɨ.ɚɥɢ ɛɢ ɦɨɝɥɢ ɩɪɭ- ɠɢɬɢ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɭ ɩɨɦɨʄ ɭ ɬɨɦɟ.11 190 .cit.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. Ⱥɥɢ ɡɚɫɚɞ.ɩɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɬɟɯɧɢɤɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɭ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɦɨɝɭ ɛɢɬɢ ɜɪɥɨ ɤɨɪɢɫɧɢ. ɡɚɬɜɨɪɟɧɨɦ ɩɨɱɟɬɧɨɦ ɤɪɭɝɭ (closed set frame work). 173–192) ɇɢɜɨ ɥɢɱɧɟ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɢɫɚɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɟ ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɪɨʁɱɚɧɨ ɢɡɪɚɡɢɬɢ. ɂɦɚʁɭʄɢ ɬɨ ɭ ɜɢɞɭ.ɞɟɥɨ. ȿɜɢ- ɞɟɧɬɧɨ ʁɟ ɞɚ ɨɜɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭ ɡɚɦɟɧɢɬɢ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɫɭɞɢʁɟ.ɦɟɬɨɞɨɥɨɲɤɟ ɩɪɟɩɨɪɭɤɟ ɡɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɭ ɨɞɪɟɻɟɧɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɟʃɚ ɤɚɨ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɢɱɤɟ ɫɬɚɧɞɚɪɞɟ ɢ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɤɨɧɬɪɨɥɟ. III ɁȺɄȴɍɑȺɄ Ʉɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɟ ɟɥɟɦɟɧɚɬɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ʁɟ ɧɨɜ ɩɪɢɥɚɡ ɪɟɲɚɜɚʃɭ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.ɩɪɨɩɢɫɢɜɚʃɟɦ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɧɟ ɫɬɪɭɱɧɟ ɫɩɪɟɦɟ ɤɚɨ ɭɫɥɨɜɚ ɢɦɟɧɨɜɚʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚɤɚ. ɍ ɩɪɢɥɨɝ ɤɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɭ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.

Ɍɪɟɛɚ ɪɚɫɩɪɚɜɢɬɢ ɟɜɟɧɬɭɚɥɧɟ ɩɪɚɜɧɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɟ ɜɟɡɚɧɟ ɡɚ ɭɩɨɬɪɟɛɭ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ.Ɍɨ ɡɧɚɱɢ ɞɚ ɧɢ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜ ɧɢ ɞɪɭ- ɝɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭ ɛɢɬɢ «ɱɚɪɨɛɧɢ ɲɬɚɩɢʄ» ɡɚ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɧɭ ɨɰɟɧɭ ɫɜɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɭ ɫɜɢɦ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɢʁɚɦɚ. Ɋɟɡɭɥɬɚɬɢ ɬɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɡɛɨɝ ɬɨɝɚ ɦɨɝɭ ɛɢɬɢ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɚɧ ɮɚɤɬɨɪ ɭ ɮɨɪɦɢ- ɪɚʃɭ ɭɜɟɪɟʃɚ ɫɭɞɢʁɟ ɨ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɢ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ. Ɂɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɪɚɞɨɜɚ ɉɪɚɜɧɨɝ ɮɚɤɭɥɬɟɬɚ ɭ ɇɨɜɨɦ ɋɚɞɭ.Ɉɰɟɧɚ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ɝɨɪɟ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɢɦ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɦ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɦɚ. 191 .ɚɥɢ ɫɟ ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭ ɢɝɧɨɪɢɫɚɬɢ ɫɥɟɞɟʄɢ ɩɪɨɬɢɜɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɢ: . ɇɚɭɱɧɨ-ɬɟɯɧɢɱɤɢ ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫ ʁɟ ɧɟɡɚɭɫɬɚɜʂɢɜ ɢ ɨɧ ʄɟ ɫɜɟ ɜɢɲɟ ɩɪɨɞɢɪɚ- ɬɢ ɢ ɭ ɫɭɞɧɢɰɟ ɢ ɧɚ ɩɨɞɪɭɱʁɭ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ ʄɟ ɭ ɫɤɨɪɨʁ ɛɭɞɭʄɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɨʄɢ ɞɨ ɤɪɭɩɧɢɯ ɩɪɨɦɟɧɚ. 2/2014 ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɚ ɤɪɢɜɢɰɟ ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɢɜɢɯ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. ɬɚʁ ɰɢʂ ɫɜɚɤɢɦ ɞɚɧɨɦ ɫɜɟ ɜɢɲɟ ɱɢɧɢ ɞɨɫɬɢɠɧɢɦ. Ɇɟɻɭɬɢɦ ɟɤɫɩɥɨɡɢɜɧɢ ɪɚɡɜɨʁ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɬɢɤɟ ɢ ɪɚɡɜɨʁ ɜɟɲɬɚɱɤɟ ɢɧɬɟɥɢɝɟɧ- ɰɢʁɟ ɢ ɧɚ ɨɜɨɦ ɩɨɞɪɭɱʁɭ ɦɨɝɭ ɞɨɧɟɬɢ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɚɧ ɩɨɦɚɤ. .ɚɥɢ ɫɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɤɨɪɢɫɬɢɬɢ ɭ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɭ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɫɜɚɤɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɚ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɧɚʁɡɧɚɱɚʁɧɢ- ʁɟ ɩɨʂɟ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟ ɦɨɠɟ ɧɚʄɢ ɤɨɞ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɫɥɨɠɟɧɢɯ ɧɚɥɚɡɚ ɢ ɦɢɲʂɟʃɚ ɜɟɲɬɚ- ɤɚ. . Ɋɟɡɭɥɬɚɬ ɞɨɛɢʁɟɧ Ȼɚʁɟɫɨɜɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɨɦ ʁɟ ɫɚɦɨ ʁɟɞɧɚ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɚ ɢɫɬɢɧɚ. Ɍɨ ʁɟ ɡɚɫɚɞ ʁɨɲ ɩɪɟɫɩɟɤɬɢɜɚ.ɛɪɚ- ɧɢɨɰɚ) ɧɢʁɟ ɞɨɜɨʂɧɨ ɡɚ ɤɨɪɢɲʄɟʃɟ ɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɨɰɟɧɟ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ. ɂɡɥɨɠɟɧɢ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɢ ɭ ɤɨɪɢɫɬ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɫɭ ɧɟɫɩɨɪɧɢ.ɨɤɪɢɜʂɟɧɨɝ. ɭɫɥɨɜʂɟɧɚ ʁɟ ɩɨɭɡɞɚɧɢɦ ɭɬɜɪɻɟʃɟɦ ɜɪɟɞɧɨɫɬɢ ɬɟɪɟʄɟʃɚ ɫɜɚɤɨɝ ɞɨɤɚɡɧɨɝ ɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɚ.Ɂɚɫɚɞ ɧɢ ɡɧɚʃɟ ɫɭɞɚ ɧɢ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɫɭɛʁɟɤɚɬɚ(ɬɭɠɢɨɰɚ. Ɉɜɢ ɚɪɝɭɦɟɧɬɢ ɭɩɨɡɨɪɚɜɚʁɭ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɧɟ ɫɦɟ ɩɪɟɰɟʃɢɜɚɬɢ ɡɧɚɱɚʁ ɦɚɬɟɦɚ- ɬɢɱɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɧɚ ɫɚɞɚɲʃɟɦ ɫɬɟɩɚɧɭ ɪɚɡɜɨʁɚ. ɚɥɢ ɭɛɪɡɚɧɢ ɪɚɡɜɨʁ ɧɚɭɤɟ.ȵɟɧɚ ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɚɰɢʁɚ ʁɟ ɨɞ ɫɭ- ɲɬɢɧɫɤɨɝ ɡɧɚɱɚʁɚ ɡɚ ɢɫɩɪɚɜɧɨ ɡɚɤʂɭɱɢɜɚʃɟ.

In the second part the paper deals with some possibilities of applyinɝ the probability analysis to evaluate evidence.D. ɉɪɢɦɟɧɚ ɪɚɱɭɧɚ ɜɟɪɨɜɚɬɧɨʄɟ ɭ ɨɰɟɧɢ ɞɨɤɚɡɚ (ɫɬɪ. It particularly tackles the potential of the Bayes' theorem of conditional probability in evidence assessment. modern mathematical methods that can be used for assessing evidence are far more sophisticated. Ph. probability. The third part is the conclusion in which the author emphasizes that scien- tific progress is extremely fast and that mathematics will enter even more into courtrooms and thus proɝressively increase the exact elements of the now pri- marily subjective process of evidence evaluation. 173–192) Ištvan Feješ. Full Professor University of Novi Sad Faculty of Law Novi Sad The Application of Probability Analysis in Evidence Evaluation Abstract: The paper is divided into three larɝer parts. and are based on probability analysis and computer technoloɝy. In the introductory part the author reminds us that the application of mat- hematics to assess the evidence is not a substantially new idea.. Inquisition pro- cedures prescribed the legal assessment of evidence that consisted of primitive mechanical addinɝ and subtractinɝ the available evidence. 192 . It particularly emphasizes the advantaɝes of Bayesian analysis. However. but it warns that the results of this method are only one” mathematical truth”. Key words: evidence.Ⱦɪ ɂɲɬɜɚɧ Ɏɟʁɟɲ. and that interpretation is the key. evaluation.