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Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 2, No.

2, 2008

Deaggregation of Probabilistic Ground Motions for Selected Jordanian Cities

Rasheed A. Jaradat 1), Osama K. Nusier 2), Muheeb M. Awawdeh1), Mahmoud Y. Al-Qaryouti 3),
Yasin M. Fahjan4) and Abdulla M. Al-Rawabdeh1)
1)
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Yarmouk University, Irbid 21163, Jordan, Tel: + 962 2721 1111 ext.
2929, Fax +962 71 1117, E-mail: rjaradat@yu.edu.jo
2)
Jordan University of Science & Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan
3)
Natural Resources Authority, Amman 11118, Jordan
4)
Gebze Institute of Technology, Istanbul, Caddesi, P.K. 141, Turkey

ABSTRACT
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) approach was adopted to investigate seismic hazard distribution
across Jordan. Potential sources of seismic activities in the region were identified, and their earthquake
recurrence relationships were developed from instrumental and historical data. Maps of peak ground acceleration
and spectral accelerations (T=0.2 and T=1.0 sec.) of 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were
developed. This study deaggregated the PSHA results of 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
results of twelve Jordanian cities to help understand the relative control of these sources in terms of distances
and magnitudes. Results indicated that seismic hazard across these cities is mainly controlled by area sources
located along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) fault system. Cities located at short distances from the DST tend to
show close deaggregation behavior. Some discrepancies may exist due to the proximity or remoteness of these
cities relative to the DST seismic sources and local seismicity. The modal or most probable distance distribution
indicated that the distance to the earthquake which contributes most to the hazard at each city is mainly
controlled by shaking along faults associated with near seismic area sources. The influence of adjacent seismic
sources to the seismic hazard of each city is more evident for the long period spectral acceleration. Distant
sources, such as the eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus, Suez and the southern region of the Gulf of Aqaba are
relatively low, but can not be neglected due to the intrinsic uncertainties and incomplete seismic data.

KEYWORDS: Seismic hazard, Deaggregation, Ground motion, Jordan.

INTRODUCTION together and recent field studies clearly delineate the
damaging effects of historic earthquakes of the region
The Dead Sea Transform (DST) fault system has been that are mainly related to the DST (Abou Karaki, 1987;
the locus of seismic activity with a long history of Ben-Menahem, 1991; Al-Tarazi, 1992; Malkawi and
destructive earthquakes (M>7), surface faulting and Alawneh, 2000).
landscape changes (Sbeinati et al., 2005; Ferry et al., The experience gained from recent and historic
2007). Significant archaeological and historical evidences earthquakes of the region and the valued knowledge
acquired through ongoing research are significantly
enhancing our understanding to the DST earthquakes.
Accepted for Publication 1/4/2008.
This knowledge is very crucial for the assessment of

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Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 2, No. 2, 2008

seismic hazard and risks, the development of earthquake Deaggregation procedure is evolving as an essential
designs and subsequent disaster mitigation plans. tool to understand seismic hazard (McGuire, 1995;
The estimation of detailed earthquake hazards Bazzurro and Cornell, 1999; Harmsen et al., 1999). It
involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking enables partitioning of the total hazard into contributions
hazards in a particular area. This is accomplished based on distance and magnitude. Moreover, it helps
probabilistically where uncertainties in earthquake size, bridge the gap between seismic hazard and the design
location and time of occurrence are explicitly considered, earthquake required for engineering purposes (McGuire,
or deterministically according to a particular earthquake 1995). Essential contributions to seismic hazard
scenario (Kramer, 1996). Seismic sources, seismicity deaggregation procedure and applications are found in
models, attenuation of strong ground motion parameters Stepp et al. (1993), Chapman (1995), McGuire (1995)
and soil conditions are among the key inputs for such and Bazzurro and Cornell (1999). This study attempts to
studies. Earthquake hazard analysis involves the use the deaggregation technique to investigate the results
determination of ground motion parameters such as Peak of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for twelve
Ground Acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration major Jordanian cities: Amman, Zarqa, Irbid, Ajlun,
(i.e. response acceleration) for a given area or specific Jarash, As-Salt, Al-Mafraq, Madaba, Karak, Tafela,
site location, which are important parameters for the Ma’an and Aqaba. These cities are characterized by their
design of civil engineering structures. higher population and large urban centers (Department of
In Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), an Statistics, 2004).
attempt is made to evaluate site ground motions for
selected values of the probability of ground motion METHODOLOGY
exceedance in a design period of the structures or for
selected values of annual frequency or return period for a The methodology of this study is based on five main
ground motion to be exceeded (McGuire, 1978). PSHA components: a) delineating earthquake sources, b) defining
method was initially developed by Cornell (1968) and the potential distribution of seismicity for each of these
developed later by McGuire (1978) and Algermissen and sources (magnitude frequency distributions), c) calculating
Perkins (1976). the potential ground motions from attenuation relations for
The probabilistic approach offers a rational all the model earthquakes, d) probabilistic seismic hazard
framework for risk management by taking account of the analysis (PSHA) and e) seismic hazard deaggregation.
frequency or probability of exceedance of the ground
motion against which a structure or facility is designed. a. Earthquake Sources
The occurrence of earthquakes in a seismic source is The Dead Sea Transform (DST) fault system is the
assumed as the Poisson distribution. The probability major tectonic feature dominating the Middle East region
distribution is defined in terms of the annual rate of (Figure 1). It represents a NNE-trending boundary
exceeding the ground motion level at the site under between the Arabian plate in the east and the Sinai-
consideration, due to all possible pairs of magnitude and Palestine subplate to the west. The DST is the major
epicentral distance (M,R) of the earthquake event tectonic feature controlling the stratigraphic and
expected around the site. Moreover, the results of PSHA structural evolution of the region since the Miocene that
can be exploited to determine predominant sources of resulted in a total horizontal displacement 105 km
seismic hazard and can provide deterministic design (Quennel, 1959; Freund and Garfunkel, 1968).
magnitudes and distances through a process known as A prerequisite for PSHA is to define existing zones of
seismic hazard deaggregation processes (Harmsen and seismic sources within the region of interest. An
Frankel, 2001). earthquake catalogue of seismic events which originated

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84 1.179 Cyprus I 26.34 -1.39 -0.5 1.value** Max. Min.333 Suez 36.03 0.59 0.60 1. The seismic sources of the DST region are relatively approach was followed due to the lack of detailed well defined along the DST plate boundary and information about the behavior of existing fault structures associated fractured zones.35 -0.74 0.28 -2.91 -0.5 -1. number of events. Moreover.223 60 33 5 75 4 7.609 11 16 5 33 4 7. ∗∗∗ λ4 = n4/t (t=period in years).5 -0. The available catalogue was DST region as of February 2008.39 1.332 11 41 5 40 4 7.141 14 24 5 40 4 7. ∗∗ β−value = b*ln(10).97 1. and activity rates).19 -3.87 1.422 17 16 5 35 4 7.09 -0.5 2.57 0.944 Aqaba II 2.61 1.19 -0.703 12 7 5 25 4 7. Seismic area sources Gulf of Suez.68 0.80 9.479 16 9 5 33 4 7.22 -0.150 Aqaba III 5.10 1. within an area of about 300 km around central Jordan was carefully reviewed for uncertainties and completeness.04 -0. the Dead .11 2.5 0. Seismic sources and their related attributes: area. Table 1.50 2.73 4.073 Yammuneh 12.089 Dead Sea 2. Wadi Araba.88 7. depth β .167 Mediterranean II 21.68 0.71 6.188 Wadi Araba 5. foreshocks. α−value* Zone name b-value a-value λ 4*** (km) (km) (km) Mediterranean I 24.35 -1.791 21 11 5 33 4 7. Mag.5 -0.5 3. aftershocks and events of region.23 -3. with depth.64 1.13 0. Activity Rate No.60 0.233 Karmel-Wadi Far'a 2.191 12 27 5 40 4 7.653 25 11 5 33 4 7. mean depth. assembled to represent the temporal and spatial Magnitudes were unified in terms of moment magnitude distribution of seismic activity in and around the DST (Mw).559 ∗ α−value = a*ln(10).0 -0. Jaradat et al.164 Mediterranean III 24.168 Palmiride 24.42 -0.60 0.23 -2.397 15 22 5 40 4 7.5 2.342 17 11 5 25 4 7.20 -2.34 0.79 -0. A definite number of clearly demonstrate that most of the earthquake activity seismic area sources of significant activity was seems to be concentrated along the major tectonic characterized by dividing the region into discrete features in the DST.5 -1.59 -0.5 -1.981 19 16 5 33 4 7. The earthquake catalogue of the DST region and moment magnitude of less than 4 were discarded.94 1.90 0.5 1.13 -0.42 1.632 18 6 5 33 4 7.36 2. Mag.10 1. resulting catalogue represents an updated version for the historical and instrumental. The adjacent regions is divided into two main categories.63 -0.678 Cyprus II 19.41 -0.82 0.42 -0.51 1. a very conservative approach was followed to define the Historical and instrumental seismicity information seismicity of the DST region.27 0. maximum depth.36 3.149 Roam 3. the Gulf of Aqaba.627 23 5 5 25 4 7.24 -0.5 -1.88 0.174 - .79 6. of events Mean depth Max.5 -0.173 Jordan Valley 3.65 1.49 -2. depth Area (km2) Min.5 -0.47 0. maximum magnitude and source parameters (a and b values.81 1.530 10 9 5 20 4 7.5 4.2 0.111 Aqaba I 2.81 -0.5 2. For the purpose of this study. These structural features include: the homogeneous seismic sources.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A.

36 0. (2005). Vered.6 1.8 2.0 s) (T=0.9 2.15 0. it can be stated that the maximum magnitude particular magnitude.07 0.6 1.85 0.21 0.17 0. Southwest Syria and Central defined.91 0.5 1.13 0.7 1.° Long. The a and b parameters which along the Dead Sea Transform fault can be assumed to be characterize the seismicity of a given region.) for 10% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years.0 s) Aqaba 29.48 0.55 0.73 0.29 1.55 35.2 s) (T=1.31 1. Magnitude-Frequency Distribution recurrence relationship.8 2.26 0. Table 2.10 0. in correlation with maximum magnitude value to set the upper limit in the documented historic events of the region and the work of .06 0. of the Gutenberg–Richter (1944) frequency–magnitude Based on previous assessments (Arieh and recurrence relationship log10 N=a – bM.37 0.6 1.32 0.33 0.13 0.24 0.5 Irbid 32.1 Zarqa 32.48 0.32 0.13 0.2 Jarash 32.97 0.1 Amman 31. Subsequently.04 35.1 Tafela 30.36 0.2 s) (T=1.21 0.25 0.34 1.26 0.5.20 35.73 0.46 0.7 b.59 0. Shapira and Hofstetter.52 35.35 1.33 35.7 1. where N stands Rabinowitz.91 0.6 1.5 1.37 0.7 1. for the number of earthquakes greater than or equal to a 2001).7 1. 2.9 2.60 0.21 1.18 1.15 0.92 0. and their ratios.9 2.95 35.07 36.17 0.21 0.57 0.8 Ma'an 30.34 36.11 0.21 0.0 Ajlun 32.80 0.42 0.18 0.72 35.0 s) (g) (T=0.09 0. local and regional tectonic features instrumental earthquakes of magnitudes (Mw) ≥ 4 of the associated with the DST and historical and instrumental DST region for the period from 19 AC–February 2008 seismic data.63 0. This required the definition of a mapped fault.6 1.° PGA SA (g) SA (g) PGA SA (g) SA (g) SA SA PGA (g) (T=0.25 0.75 0.39 0.42 0.01 0.5 Al-Karak 31.26 0.27 0.09 0.2 and 1.6 1.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.12 0.46 0. which is a maximum magnitude Seismic activity of a region is characterized in terms associated with each seismic sources area.22 0.9 Al-Mafraq 32.08 0. following the approach given by Jimenez et al.98 0. 1989.13 0. 1978.8 2.8 2. are equal to 7.21 0. 2008 Sea and the Jordan Valley.15 0.13 1.16 0.09 0.28 35.14 0.5 1. These estimations are based mainly on the calculated by regression analysis for the historical and limited seismic history and partially on the length of the instrumental data.37 0.8 2.83 0.8 2. Lebanon and Eastern Mediterranean Region and Cyprus. 10% exceedance probability in 50 2% exceedance Ratio (2% /10%) years probability in 50 years City Lat.82 0. Ground motion values encountered within selected Jordanian cities for PGA and SA (T=0.3 Madaba 31.28 1. Volume 2.19 35. Figure 2 shows the distribution of historic and Based on geology.7 1.84 35.0 sec.71 0.2 s) (T=1. 16 different seismic area sources were and their associated seismic area sources.10 0.175 - .20 1.90 0.15 1. No.15 0.32 1.7 1.11 1.3 As-Salt 32.54 0.

Initially. ground motions were analyzed using representative for the DST region. (1996) and Boore et al. He The characteristics of the defined seismic area sources stated that the equations of Ambraseys et al. Accordingly.2° x 0. Accordingly. term. The ground motion results were conditions. In addition to another deaggregation analysis. deep stiff parameters for the DST region.2) that occurred on the Aragonese occurring on a fault follows a stationary Poisson process. Jaradat et al.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. Table 1 lists the defined seismic area This study investigated the performance of the sources and their characteristic seismic parameters. This more insight on the spatial distribution of ground motions attenuation relationship is sensitive to local site across the region. Ambraseys et al.176 - . 1994) are very database. Later. soil.5. Israel and Palestine to have fitting equation for the investigated events. (1996) and Boore. a hazard in Jordan. where it incorporates a site factor that is estimated on a 0. 1994) equation was the most region encompassing Jordan. (1994) models were accepted as specific in the sense that they may be established for appropriate models for evaluation of the ground motion particular soil condition.5. Figure 3 shows a comparison between these Empirical ground motion attenuation relationships are relations against published strong motion data from generally employed in the quantification of seismic Jordan and Israel.2 for map production. from Al-Qaryouti (2002) and Gitterman (1999). However. the Boore. 70 km south of the towns of Eilat and Aqaba. (2005) employed the equations of probability for a specified interval of time. for Peak Ground Acceleration tectonic structures and faulting styles in the region under (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA). distance and local have a maximum magnitude of 7. Ambraseys et al. Shapira and Hofstetter (2001) and Elnashai and El. Ground Motion Attenuation Relationships Mw=7. such as rock. EZ- 22nd November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake of FRISKTM assumes that the number of earthquakes magnitude (Mw=7. . Ambraseys et al. shallow stiff soil. attenuation equations of Ambraseys et al. Since These relationships describe the change of ground motion most of the long period fault structures of the DST region severity with source mechanism. magnitude of 7. attenuation relationships tend to be show a very acceptable performance for the seismicity of regionally specific according to the geological and the region. Jimenez et al. fault. attenuation relations may be site. (1996) relationships requires the characterization of existing seismic sources.25.. d.… etc. However. Inc. soft soil.2° grid and exported into ArcGIS- essentially a physical characteristic of the local geology 9. ground motion values of by means of a term of average shear wave velocity the selected cities were extracted and used in subsequent measured over the upper 30 m. Due to the limited strong motion data in Jordan. for both Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral the definition of appropriate ground motion model and Acceleration (SA) in terms of surface magnitude (Ms) the calculation of probabilistic seismic hazard for were found to be appropriate to be used for the DST different sites with ground motions expected with a given region. this study assumed a maximum relationship attractively versatile for adoption. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) published empirical ground motion relationships This study adopted the PSHA approach developed by specifically developed for the DST region are not Cornell (1968) and McGuire (1978). study. referring to the fault mechanism type makes this Khoury (2004). the multisite approach of EZ-FRISKTM for the geographic Joyner-Fumal (Boore et al. This approach available.. these relationships geology. (1996) and (Table 1) were incorporated into the software’s area fault Boore-Joyner-Fumal (Boore et al. Furthermore. Strong motion data were complied hazard in either deterministic or probabilistic approaches. Joyner and Fumal (1994 and 1997) for Mw=6 and c. (1996) for the assessment of seismic The PSHA is conducted using EZ-FRISKTM -7. Leonov (2000) investigated a number of computer program for earthquake ground motion attenuation relations against strong motion data of the estimation developed by Risk Engineering.

25 6 15 19 1.0 sec.5 1. No.4 .6 45 47 1.6 55 58 1.7 0. 2008 Table 3.25 6.7 15 24 1.5 1.2 sec.7 0.25 6.3 0.7 45 53 1.3 1.88 Al-Karak 7.36 Tafela 7.25 7 45 100 1.2 25 21 -0.25 6.3 1.7 1. 2.3 0. City PGA Aqaba 5.25 6.55 Zarqa 7.7 25 22 -0.9 25 23 -1.25 6.4 45 73 2.3 Ma'an 7.1 0.89 Ajlun 7.25 6.25 6.9 25 23 -1.25 6.3 15 19 0.8 25 32 -2.25 6. Volume 2.3 As-Salt 7.7 Ma'an 7.2 25 25 1.55 Tafela 7.) at a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years.3 -0.1 0.7 1.63 Amman 7.3 0.6 Al-Karak 7.1 Jarash 7.25 6.4 25 22 -0.3 0.011 Al-Karak 7.6 25 21 -0.025 Irbid 7.18 Jarash 7.25 6.7 25 21 -1.2 sec. Mag.25 6.63 Irbid 7.3 1 Tafela 7.4 Amman 7.5 Al-Mafraq 7.5 25 27 -1.3 1.9 25 31 -2.5 0.9 1.25 6.2 Madaba 7.6 25 30 -1.68 Ajlun 7.) Aqaba 7.9 0.7 25 21 -1.5 0.7 25 28 -1.2 25 20 -0.5 25 20 -0.25 6.3 1.3 0.8 35 42 1.25 6.9 1.83 Madaba 7.29 As-Salt 7. Mag.5 45 60 1.75 6.5 0.25 6.1 0.25 6.1 Amman 7.177 - .1 0.94 Al-Mafraq 7. (Mw) Distance (km) Epsilon Distance Distance Epsilon Epsilon Modal Modal Modal Mean Mean Mean Mag.25 6.25 6. distances and epsilon values for PGA.25 6.6 25 25 -1.5 0.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.25 6.2 Ma'an 7.4 Ajlun 7.3 1.0 sec.25 7 35 53 1.) and SA (1.) Aqaba 5.26 Madaba 7.85 As-Salt 7.25 6.6 25 23 -0.94 Irbid 7. SA (0.7 0.5 25 22 -0.37 Zarqa 7.9 25 23 -1.5 25 21 -0.25 6.25 6.4 25 24 -1.6 25 22 -0.3 0.3 0.25 6.67 Jarash 7.2 SA (1.8 SA (0.7 0.25 6.5 0.5 1 Zarqa 7. PSHA deaggregation results in terms of mean and modal magnitudes.99 Al-Mafraq 7.25 6.25 7 45 67 1.25 6.25 6.25 6.1 1.25 7 25 33 -2.

4 25 32 -2.52 Al-Karak 5.25 6.4 15 35 1.7 Ma'an 5.54 Madaba 6.9 0.9 0. SA (0.8 55 130 1.1 55 92 1.5 1.81 Amman 5.1 1 Al-Mafraq 7.4 45 54 1. Jaradat et al.25 6.1 0.1 25 25 0.1 0.25 6 35 38 2.75 6.8 25 26 1.1 0.75 6.0 sec.25 5.66 As-Salt 5.6 Al-Mafraq 5.79 Ajlun 7.1 Jarash 5.75 6.7 25 23 1.3 25 28 -2.2 25 32 1.1 0.5 1 Al-Karak 5.1 1.61 Jarash 7.4 Amman 5.5 1.25 6.6 35 48 1.1 0.75 6.1 Ma'an 7.96 Irbid 5.9 25 25 1.25 5.2 sec.3 1.7 1.4 25 56 0.3 25 27 -2.25 5.1 45 57 2.4 Tafela 5.8 SA (0.2 25 25 0.) Aqaba 5.1 1.7 25 22 1.25 5.76 Tafela 7.25 6.3 1. Mag.9 25 33 1.75 6.7 15 22 1.5 25 33 -2. Table 4.6 35 53 0.) at a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years.25 6.25 6 15 23 0.75 6.25 6 25 27 1.25 6.72 Zarqa 7.7 45 78 1.1 0.75 6 25 31 0.9 1.75 6. (Mw) Distance (km) Epsilon Modal Mean Modal Mean Modal Mean City Mag.55 As-Salt 7.75 6.1 As-Salt 5.1 1 Zarqa 5.8 25 31 1.2 sec.) Aqaba 7.9 1.25 6.3 0.9 0. PSHA deaggregation results in terms of mean and modal magnitudes.3 1.7 Ajlun 5.9 0.1 1.8 55 92 0.2 Ma'an 5.25 6.25 5.25 6.1 0.37 Irbid 7.82 Tafela 5. distances and epsilon values for PGA.4 55 65 1.3 .75 6.25 5.4 Al-Karak 6.2 55 69 2.9 0.48 Irbid 5. Distance Distance Epsilon Epsilon PGA Aqaba 5.55 Zarqa 5.3 1.65 Jarash 5.25 6.25 5.3 1.3 25 26 0.1 Ajlun 5.3 0.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A.1 0.1 Madaba 5.) and SA (1.78 Amman 7.2 SA (1.25 6.9 0.75 6.9 0.7 0.178 - .5 25 35 -2.3 1.3 55 82 1.75 6 25 22 0.66 Madaba 5.25 6.1 Al-Mafraq 5. Mag.1 0.25 6.0 sec.3 35 37 1.75 6 25 23 1.

Palmiride Roam. Wadi Aqaba I. Dead Sea. Roam. As-Salt Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Karmel-Wadi Far’a Dead Sea. Jordan Valley.) Aqaba I. Jordan Valley. Dead Sea Amman Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Karmel-Wadi Far’a Wadi Araba Wadi Araba Tafela Wadi Araba Wadi Araba Wadi Araba Wadi Araba Dead Sea Dead Sea Jordan Valley. Roam. Wadi Araba. Wadi Aqaba Wadi Araba Araba Araba Araba Araba Araba Ajlun Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. Wadi Dead Sea.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. Ma'an Wadi Araba Wadi Araba Aqaba I. Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. Karmel-Wadi Jarash Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley. Dead Wadi Araba Aqaba I. Wadi Al-Karak Wadi Araba Araba Araba Araba Araba Araba Jordan Valley. Palmiride Jordan Valley. Roam. Palmiride. 2008 Table 5. Dead Aqaba I Sea Sea . Palmiride. Wadi Dead Sea. Dead Sea. Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years City PGA SA (0. Jordan Valley. Dead Sea. Wadi Aqaba I.0 sec. Far’a. Jordan Valley. Roam. Jordan Valley. Wadi Araba.2 sec.0 sec. Aqaba I. Jordan Valley. Palmiride Jordan Valley Roam. Roam. Dead Sea. Dead Sea. Wadi Aqaba I. 2. Palmiride Karmel-Wadi Far’a Jordan Valley. Palmiride.179 - . Dead Sea. Al-Mafraq Roam. Dead Sea. Zarqa Karmel-Wadi Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Dead Sea Far’a. Palmiride.2 sec. Karmel-Wadi Dead Sea Dead Sea Palmiride Karmel-Wadi Far’a Far’a Wadi Araba. Jordan Valley. Wadi Aqaba I. Dead Sea.) SA (1. Jordan Valley Roam. Wadi Dead Sea. Jordan Valley. Wadi Dead Sea. Palmiride. Probable seismic area sources based on the mean distances and magnitudes of each deaggregated ground motion at a probability of exceedance of 2% and 10% in 50 years. Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. Roam. Madaba Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Jordan Valley Dead Sea. Most probable dominating sources are shown in bold face. Irbid Jordan Valley Roam.) SA (1. No. Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. Palmiride Jordan Valley Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley. Jordan Valley.) PGA SA (0. Volume 2. Dead Sea. Dead Sea. Jordan Valley.

Figure (1): Tectonic map of the Dead Sea Transform and the Syrian Arc Fold Belt showing the location of Amman sheet area (After Garfunkel. 1981).Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. Jaradat et al.180 - . .

5 and 6). 2. In order to have more insight into the probabilistic McGuire (1995) mentioned that design earthquakes can seismic hazard maps presented earlier. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral (ε). No. Volume 2. Ground motions of low frequencies (T=1 sec.5 and a distance interval of 10 km. tends to shift the was used to estimate the Peak Ground Acceleration contribution to lower magnitude values (Risk (PGA) and the Spectral Accelerations (SA) at periods of Engineering. following generate scenario earthquakes and select corresponding the procedure presented in EZ-FRISKTM software. median of the log-normal distribution ground motion 1995. such as earthquakes taking place near the periods (T=0. small R and large ε are Accelerations (SA) at periods of 0.2 and 1 sec. The term ε of the attenuation relationships. PSHA contributing more to this hazard. Inc. 2007).. low results using Boore et al.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. motions characterized by high ε values.0 seconds) with respect to 2% and maximum magnitude on a fault or due to rare ground 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. 0. (1994) relationship which decreases with the increase in M. time histories for seismic design.2 and 1 sec. (Figure 3). Pagani and Marcellini. by defining needed earthquake scenarios. respectively.2 sec. 2008). resistant structures (Halchuk et al. expressed in terms of the number of standard Accelerations (SA) deviations from the median ground motion estimated The results of the hazard analysis represent the with a ground motion attenuation relationship (McGuire. Therefore. seismic hazard can be deaggregated to show RESULTS AND DISCUSSION the contribution to the annual frequency of exceedance by magnitude (M). an attempt is made be constructed by modification until the computed to deaggregate these ground motions for the 12 selected spectral ordinates replicate the uniform hazard spectrum cities. can provide useful information on the distance and M). Seismic Hazard Deaggregation help in the construction of needed design earthquakes.2 and 1. which can be used to interval of 0. Boore et al. The selected ground motion parameters of analysis were In general. values for Jordan which are represented in Deaggregation results can serve as an input for Figures (4. deaggregation can e.) of SA values. 2007).) of ground and far (>60 km) distances from expected epicenters shaking. deterministic seismic hazard. On the other hand. The latitude and longitude for the downtowns of of any chosen return period. These results can be plotted each of these cities are used to deaggregate their ground in terms of what is known as deaggregation plots which motions in terms of bin pairs of distance and magnitude (R. large R and were utilized for all sources for the estimation PGA and small ε. distance (R) and the normalized residual a. deaggregation of seismic hazard at high the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Spectral amplitude indicates that large M. respectively.. 2008 The PSHA analysis has been conducted for return recognizing the importance of deaggregation in its design periods of 475 and 2475 years corresponding to 10% and provision that is hoped to lead to improve earthquake- 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. outputs obtained from computations using the above Deaggregation is becoming a more fundamental attenuation relationships on firm-rock conditions procedure to answer the question concerning which (Vs=760 m/s). The National The 475-year and 2475-year seismic hazard maps of Building Code of Canada (NBCC.181 - . For a specific spectral period and ground motion amplitude. Figure 4 through Figure 6 show the PGA sources are significantly contributing to the existing and SA spatial distribution maps for 5% damping at hazard. whereas the results based on Ambraseys et al. Additionally. shaking are usually associated with larger M and larger R (1996) relationship proved to be erratic at near (< 10 km) than those of high frequencies (T=0. Deaggregation was carried out based on a magnitude magnitude of predominant sources. (1994) attenuation relationship amplitudes of ground motion indicate low M. edition-2005) is the investigated ground motions show relative variability .

Jordan Valley. the Mediterranean and Cyprus sources. This is primarily north. compared to the farthest western and close to the Dead Sea Basin and Jordan Valley to the sources. among the 12 selected Jordanian cities. i. Area seismic sources are outlined with red border. where elevated ground Dead Sea Basin. Karmel-Wadi Far’a.e.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. . Jaradat et al. The northern distinctive pattern of ground motion related to their proximity or remoteness to the DST distributions reflects the influence of the seismicity of the seismic sources (Figure 2). motions are taking place along the DST and are Yammouneh and Roam seismic sources on the hazard dominating the vicinity of the Gulf of Aqaba to the south map of the region. Figure (2): Seismicity map of the Dead Sea Transform region including historic and instrumental data.182 - .

the dominant probabilities in less active seismic areas to the east and earthquake contributing to the ground motion is larger west of the DST. expected that the long period spectral accelerations will this study strongly suggests the need to acknowledge the reflect the effect of distant sources. the structure should have a low likelihood of period from 0.2 sec. and SA (T=1.29 g at SA (T=1.9 (Figure 7-B). This may be attributed to the deaggregation of 0. Volume 2. the larger and more distant earthquakes is more Table 2 indicates that the spectral acceleration values pronounced in longer periods more than that in shorter of the 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years are periods. distances and epsilon values for 10% probability of exceedance and 2% probability of the above mentioned spectral accelerations. earthquake ground motion. Figure 7 shows a Table 2 shows a list for the ground motion values comparison between the deaggregation of distance and encountered within each city. 1997) and the International deaggregation of 0. Figure 7-A shows that the deaggregation of 0.2 to 1. 2003). Therefore.. Seismic Hazard Deaggregation means of a bar chart representing magnitude.) shows that the Building Code (ICC.13 g at SA (T=1.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.e. distance and The deaggregation procedure was carried out for the probability density.2 sec.) shows that the increasing influence of the infrequent but larger mean magnitude of the causative event is equal to 6. SA (T=0. of exceedance in 50 years. values) attenuate slower with distance than that of the there would be low confidence that structures would not high frequencies (Malhotra. 2006) provide a minimum contributing event is located at a mean distance of 23 km. In general. and located closer to each city. 2008 Moreover.6. the ground motion difference between the probable) magnitudes. This means that if the 10% mean magnitude equals 6. The height of the bin signifies the relative (Table 2). which is located at a mean distance of 35 km (Figure 7- The provisions of the National Earthquake Hazards D). Moreover. at 2% probability of exceedance. Reduction Program (NEHRP.83 almost 1. Accordingly. Each bar represents a seismic event amplitudes of GPA. conservative margin of about 1. in is typically smaller than the difference between the two comparison to the 10% probability level.5-2 times more than the 10% probability of g at T=0. Tables 3 and 4 present the results of importance of a particular seismic event according to its deaggregation in terms of mean and modal (most probability density.5 magnitude events associated with the DST region.) whose size and distance are indicated along the horizontal at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years axes.5 times the design magnitudes tend to increase along with the increase of level. it is collapse due to these larger ground motions. Meanwhile.5 times the design and has a mean magnitude of 6. At 10% probability of exceedance. This means that if a structure for each probability level. These results exceedance in 50 years close to the DST fault structures show that for the lower probability level (2%).0 sec. deaggregated distances and experiences a level of ground motion 1. The results of deaggregation are more realized by b. . indicating that the effect of collapse. at different probability levels.0 sec. These results indicate that magnitude of contributing sources at 2% and 10% all SA values of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years probability levels for the ground motions encountered at are much higher than those of the SA of 10% probability the city of Irbid. the significance probability of exceedance in 50 years map was used as of distant events increases with the increase in natural the design ground motion and the 2% probability of periods.. 2. No. judging 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years spectral the contribution of proximal or distant earthquake sources accelerations in design practice for the Jordanian cities requires the careful inspection of short and long periods located in the vicinity of the DST. for 2% probability is dominated by an exceedance in 50 years ground motion values for most of earthquake located at a mean distance of 21 km and its the selected Jordanian cities. long-period SA exceedance in 50 years ground motions were to occur. Accordingly.).183 - .0 sec. since low frequencies (i.0 sec.

Contrary to the fact that the distant seismic sources located outside the DST region. respectively.0 sec. deaggregation result of the higher probability (Figure 9).0 (T=0.2 and 1. On the other group. The second group includes Zarqa and Al-Mafraq hand. it is clear that for longer periods.01 0.0 sec. and may show a more tailed Amman and Tafela. some (T=0. Therefore. The tailing and between 22-37 km for SA (0. controlling source region.1 PGA (g) 0. Jarash. Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1994 and 1997) against GPA values of strong motion stations from Jordan and Israel. the SA (1. 1 Recorded Strong Motion (PGA) Ambraseyes et al (1996) Mw=7 Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1994) Mw=7 Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1997) Mw=7 Ambraseyes et al (1996) Mw=6 Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1994) Mw=6 Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1997) Mw=6 0. . The first group cities will focus their bar chart pattern due to a single includes Irbid. Al-Karak. Ajlun.). and includes Ma’an 7). a typical example of this sources.184 - . the more the control two investigated levels of probabilities for PGA and SA is expected from distant seismic sources. Madaba.). which are larger and more distant. while the third group represents all cities (10%) will reflect the largest and closest sources (Figure displaying dissimilar patterns. related to near seismic area sources. Therefore. respectively.) and SA (T=1.2 sec.2 sec. seismic hazard of these cities is mainly (Figure 10) and Aqaba (Figure 11). at a given shapes of their deaggregation bar charts for both SA probability level.) mean distance of the controlling events is still very Inspection of these figures suggests the possibility to near and ranges between 21-33 km and 27-56 km for 2% sort these cities into a number of groups based on the and 10% probabilities. These bar charts were prepared for the 12 cities at the longer the period of ground motion.001 1 10 Distance (Km) 100 1000 Figure (3): Comparison between the attenuation equations of Ambraseyes et al. using Mw=6 and 7. As-Salt. Jaradat et al. sec.) at 2% and 10% behavior of higher SA periods suggests the effect of probabilities. Figure 8 shows the deaggregation behavior due to the influence of juxtaposing seismic results of the city of Ajlun. (1996).Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. whereas the relative The mean distance for the controlling earthquake on contribution from far-field seismic sources to the the cities of the first group is ranging between 20-28 km seimicity of these cities is very limited.

No.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. Volume 2. 2. 2008 Figure (4): Probabilistic seismic hazard map for peak ground acceleration at 10% (upper) and 2% (lower) probability of exceedance in 50 years on firm-rock site conditions. .185 - .

.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. Jaradat et al. Figure (5): Probabilistic seismic hazard map for spectral acceleration (T=0.) at 10% (upper) and 2% (lower) probability of exceedance in 50 years on firm-rock site conditions.186 - .2 sec.

187 - . Volume 2. 2. .0 sec. 2008 Figure (6): Probabilistic seismic hazard map for spectral acceleration (T=1. No.) at 10% (upper) and 2% (lower) probability of exceedance in 50 years on firm-rock site conditions.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.

and SA (0.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A.2 sec. .) (A) and (1.) (D) (1.) at 10% probability of exceedance.2 sec.188 - . Jaradat et al.0 sec.) (B) for the city of Irbid at 2%. A) C) bability bability ro ro Density P Density P w) w) (M (M e e Dis ud Di s ud tanc tanc ni t ni t e (km e (k m) g ag ) Ma M B) D) robability bability ro Density P Density P w) w) (M (M Dist e e Di s ud anc ud e tanc (km n it e (k ni t ) m) ag g Ma M Figure (7): Deaggregation of SA (0.) (C) and (1.0 sec.0 sec.

2 sec. .189 - . 2008 A) C) bability bability Pro Pro Density Density w) w) (M (M e ud e Dist Di s t ud ni t anc anc n it e e (k g (km Ma m) g ) Ma B) D) bability robability ro Density P Density P w) w) (M (M e ud e Di s ud n it tanc Di s t ni t e (k ag m) anc e (k ag M m) M Figure (8): Deaggregation of PSHA results of the city of Ajlun for SA (0.) (C) and (1.0 sec.2 sec.) (B) at 2%.0 sec. and SA (0. 2. Volume 2.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering.) (D) at 10% probability of exceedance: A typical pattern for the first group.) (A) and (1. No.

Deaggregation of… Rasheed A.190 - . Jaradat et al.) (D) at 10% probability of exceedance: A typical pattern for the second group.2 sec.2 sec.0 sec. . and SA (0. A) C) ty bability Probabili Pro Density Density w) w) (M (M e ud e ud nit Dist nit g anc Dis Ma e tanc g (km Ma ) e (km ) B) D) bability ty Probabili Pro Density Density w) (M w) e (M ud Dis e ni t tanc ud e g (km Dist Ma ni t ) anc e g (km Ma ) Figure (9): Deaggregation of PSHA results of the city of Zarqa for SA (0.) (B) at 2%.) (C) and (1.) (A) and (1.0 sec.

2 sec. No.191 - .2 sec. 2.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. and SA (0. Volume 2.0 sec.0 sec.) (A) and (1.) (B) at 2%. . 2008 A) C) ty bability Probabili Pro Density Density w) w) (M (M e ud e ud Dis ni t ni t tanc g Dis Ma e tanc g (km Ma ) e (km ) B) D) ty robability Probabili Density P Density w) w) (M (M e ud e Dis ud ni t tanc Dis nit e tanc ag (km e( ag ) M km) M Figure (10): Deaggregation of PSHA results of the city of Ma’an for SA (0.) (D) at 10% probability of exceedance.) (C) and (1.

these cities are located at almost the same distance Accordingly.2 sec. such as the Mediterranean and Cyprus sources.2 sec.) (A) and (1.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. These mean .0 sec.192 - .) (C) and (1. and SA (0.) (B) at 2%. A)robability C) robability Density P Density P w) (M e w) ud (M Dist ni t anc e e ag (km Dis ud ) tanc M ni t e (km ag ) M B) D) robability robability Density P Density P w) w) (M (M e Dis ud e tanc Dist ud nit e (km anc nit e g ) (km Ma ag ) M Figure (11): Deaggregation of PSHA results of the city of Aqaba for SA (0. Jaradat et al.) (D) at 10% probability of exceedance.0 sec. resemblance between the cities of the first relative to one or more juxtaposing seismic source areas group (Tables 2 and 3) is mainly attributed to the fact that along the DST fault system (Figure 2).

) at 2% probability level.8 for 2% probability of events are ranging between 53 and 67 km for 2% exceedance. Irbid.) at 2%. both long and short Ajlun.25-5. short periods of ground motions have a modal motions dominating the selected Jordanian cities. in addition to is mostly dominated by a source located 15 km from the some minor contributions from adjacent sources located investigated location. Finally. it is mainly dominated by the The modal (most probable) magnitude (Mw) for seismicity of Wadi Araba.2 sec. The mean magnitude range for the PGA is earthquake on the cities of this group is ranging between between 5.3 and 6. and between 78 and 92 km for 10% and 7 for 2% and between 6. with an average of 5. this behavior is not extending probable distance to the earthquake controlling the hazard further than 115-145 km at SA (T=1 sec. the hazard exceedance show the importance of the near sources in Madaba and Al-Karak is dominated by the Dead Sea. Meanwhile.) is controlled largely by Wadi Araba. the expected seismic sources of the expected ground However.2.) ranges between 6.) of 2% and 10% for each city (Tables 3 and 4). The mean The cities of the second group are relatively distant magnitude values show slight variation between the from the DST. while the SA (1. magnitude of 5.0 sec. the mean distance for the controlling 3 and 4).8 for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The distances for 10% probability show a slight increase. 2008 distances indicate that the ground motions of the cities of seismic sources (Table 5). magnitudes and distant sources (Figure 11).75 at 10% of exceedance. Jarash and Amman are mainly periods of the 2 investigated probability levels of controlled by the Jordan Valley. The SA (0. Volume 2. At larger periods. Palmiride and Karmel.2 and 1. As indicated from the deaggregation of seismic area source causes the highest hazard. while the long period is investigated ground motions which strongly suggest that dominated by shaking from Wadi Araba. The results indicate that probability of exceedance in 50 years (Figure 9-B and for most cities. which indicates that hazard locally attributed to the DST. these distances still indicate sources located pronounced tailing trends are seen towards higher within the DST region. various cities for the investigated ground motions (Tables Similarly. (1995) and Fahmi et al. the Aqaba city mainly controlled by the Jordan Valley. model dissimilar magnitude-distance deaggregation results. the mean distance for the controlling 6. between 6. (1996) who pointed very near distances.0-6. . each city from the existing seismic sources for the with a mean distance of 45km. probability of exceedance. As-Salt. the seismic hazard of these cities is (0. while it ranges probability of exceedance. These and Figure 10-D). No.25.7 and 6.0 sec.7 probability. and for the city of Tafela.2 sec. such as Roam. the city of Aqaba reflects a conclusions are very comparable to the speculations of very unique and focused pattern that is associated with Malkawi et al.9 at 10% 42 and 53 km for SA (0. are dominated by sources located at a distance of 25 km Wadi Far’a (Table 5). Similarly. On the other hand. Meanwhile. Dead Sea and the hazard in these cities is most probably controlled by Aqaba I.193 - . For SA longer periods.) ranges between 6 and For SA (T=1. However. shaking along faults associated with near Figure 9-D). where very However. The short Table 4 shows the relative contribution of hazard for period SA (0. which increases up to 35 km for Zarqa and to 45 km for The rest of the cities (Ma’an and Aqaba) have Al-Mafraq and Ma’an. while other outside sources within Aqaba is mainly controlled by very frequent near have little effect on the country.0 sec. while for the 2% it ranges between 54 and 65 km at 10% probability of exceedance.). 2. Tailing towards lower magnitudes out that the main source of seismic hazard in Jordan is and lower distances is shown. these cities show a slight tailing towards events located at The modal distance distribution indicates the most larger distances. with a tailing distance of ~185 km (Figure 10-B close sources of relative higher magnitudes.Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. city of Ma’an has a very distinctive behavior.6. in comparison to those of the first group.4 for 10 % and from 6.3 to 6.2 sec. most of the other cities within the DST. Table 5 gives a summary of earthquakes that dominates the hazard is equal to 7. rather than that of the distant sources.

Geol. Disaggregation of Hazard in Jordan and its Vicinity. Report 76-416. Des Pays De La Bordure OrientaleLa Mediterranee: Ambraseys. N. Journal of Geophysics Research. N. hazard for each city. E.S. of Earthquake Hazard in Israel. Bochum.S. 1998.75 for SA process compares the probabilities of exceeding a (T=0. PhD Thesis.) and 7. J.A. 167 Jordan. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Probabilistic Assessment and Engineering Seismology Implications in Aqaba area. The deaggregation most probable earthquake is equal to 5. and Bommer. Middle East: A Reappraisal of the Acceleration from Western North American Seismicity. 89 (2): 501-520. 47 (2/3): 733–758. and Perkins.M. C. Contiguous United States: U. Probabilistic International.N. University of Strasburg I. Ruhr-Universität. A. and Jackson. probability of exceedance for 2% and 10% exceedance The results indicate that very near seismic sources of probability in 50 years to determine the magnitude and relative higher magnitudes are the dominating sources distance of the earthquakes that contribute most to the of hazard for the selected Jordanian cities.N.A. Synthese Et Carte Sismotectonique Geophysics.A. D. Cyprus and Suez are relatively low. Reihe 34.). 52 (1): 77. Germany. Survey Open-File Prediction of Horizontal Response Spectra in Europe.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A. Berichte Seismic Hazard. 1976..T. where the hazard at specific cities in Jordan. Joyner. Equations 80. W. 133: 390–406.A. E. The 12th Century Seismic Paroxysm in the Middle East:A Historical Perspective. but can not be geologists. 11 (1): 19-32. 1989. Investigation and Assessment of Seismic Bazzurro.J. Tectonophysics. (2/4): 223-233.) for a probability certain ground motion level from each event used to of exceedance in 50 years. Al-Tarazi. 25: Al-Qaryouti. 96: Willis’s List of Earthquakes in Palestine and Syria. Analysis of the Gulf of Aqaba Activity for 1993-2001 Arieh.E. Associated with Historical and Recent Earthquakes in PhD Thesis. This should allow civil engineers. and Rabinowitz.N. University of Jordan.M. K. and Cornell. for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Ambraseys.N. Boore. D. Jaradat et al. 1997. 1987. Bulletin of Seismological Society of des Instituts für Geophysik. 2004. P. 68 (1): 128-153. such as the eastern Mediterranean. America (B. Estimate of Maximimum Acceleration in Rock in the Ambraseys. T. Faulting Sismicite Du System De Failles Du Jourdain-Mer Morte. Geophysical Journal Algermissen. J. CONCLUSIONS representative strong motion records or scenario earthquakes in their design. Simpson. 4000 Years of Seismicity along the Ambraseys. the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. Earthquakes: A Summary of Recent Work. 1992. N. The contributions from characterize the events that contribute most to the distant sources.N. USA. and Fumal. N. Ben-Menahem. seismologists and municipal policy makers neglected due to the intrinsic uncertainties and to identify the predominant hazardous earthquakes in incomplete seismic catalogues. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America. planning and risk We have deaggregated the hazard model of a mitigation.194 - .25-5. N.. N.B. 1991. any region and provide guidance for using REFERENCES Ambraseys. . 2002. 1978. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology. Earthquake Strong Motion Data 371-400.25 for SA (T=1 sec. 1999. Annals of Abou Karaki. S.S.. Seismological Research Letters.2 sec. 17325-17351. 1962. N. 1996. A Note on the Chronology of Dead Sea Rift. M. 45.

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Haz.. Stepp. Mitig. Jaradat et al.K. J. Silva. Conf. In Proc. 1978. 2.. Mcguire. 27: 82-84. 2005). Ga. W. Atlanta.T. R. 651-657. 4th Doe Natural Phen. Vered.J. Israel High Level Nuclear Waste Repository Facility. Determination of Earthquake Design Loads for a Magnitude Associated with the Jordan Rift. and Sewell. Journal of Earth Science.Deaggregation of… Rasheed A.Org/> (May 1. The Probable Maximum Earthquake 1993. M.196 - . .C. R... Merc.