Mca4020 Slm Unit 07

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Mca4020 Slm Unit 07

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You are on page 1of 22

Unit 7 Distributions

Structure :

7.1 Introduction

Objective

7.2 Bernoulli Trials

7.3 Binomial Distribution

7.4 Poisson Distribution

7.5 Continuous Distribution

7.6 Summary

7.7 Terminal Questions

7.8 Answers

7.1 Introduction

All the information of a random variable is contained in its probability

distribution. In practice the probability distribution of a random variable may

not be known, but we may be able to find out what type of random variable

is at hand by examining the causes that makes it random. Knowing this we

can often approximate the random variable to a standard one for which the

convenient formulas are available. There are some probability models for

random experiments of the discrete & continuous type that occur frequently

in applications. These will be described in this chapter.

Objectives:

At the end of the unit the student should be able to :

Explain the concept of discreet and continuous probability distribution

function.

Find mean, median , mode, mgf of discreet and continuous distributions.

Trials are called Bernoulli trials if they meet the following requirements

i) Each trial has only two possible outcomes called success and failure.

ii) The probability of the outcome of any trial remains fixed.

iii) All the trials are statistically independent.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

Definition :

Let the random variable X be defined as follows :

X = No: of successes.

Then we call X a binomially distributed random variable with parameters n

and p if its probability distribution is given by

p (1 p)n x, x = 0, 1, . n.

x

p (X = x) = nC X

where p the probability of success

(1 p) = q the probability of failure,

we write X ~ B (n, p)

Example :

Suppose an operator produces n pins, one by one, on a lathe that has

probability p of making a good pin at each trial. If this p remains constant

throughout, then independence is guaranteed and the sequence of success

and failures (1 or 0) denoting the good and bad pins produced in each of the

n trials (Bernoulli trials).

An X that counts the number of success (number of good pins produced) in

fixed number of trials i.e. n is called to follow the Binomial Distribution and X

is called a Binomial random variable.

Conditions for a Binomial Random Variable :

i) The trials must be Bernoulli trials in that the outcomes can only be

either success or failure.

ii) The out comes of the trials must be independent.

iii) The probability of success in each trial must be constant.

Mean & Variance of Binomial distribution:

Mean

n

E(X) x p (x)

x0

n

x. n C p x qn x .

x

x 1

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

n!

x. p x qn x

x 1 (n x ) ! x !

n

(n 1) !

np

x 1 (n x ) ! ( x 1) !

p x 1 qn x

= np

Variance:

V( X) E( X 2 ) [E( X)] 2

n

E( X 2 )

x 1

x 2 p (x)

n

n!

x 1

x2

(n x ) ! x !

p x qn x

n

x ( x 1) n ! x n x n

x 1 (n x ) ! x !

p q x p( x )

x 1

n

(n 2) !

n(n 1) p 2

x2 (n x ) ! ( x 2) !

p x 2 qn x np

n 2 p 2 np 2 np

V ( X ) n 2 p 2 np 2 np n 2 p 2 np (1 p) npq

Mode:

We have to find that value of the random variable X following Binomial

distribution for which the probability of occurrence is maximum. Thus, if X=k

is the modal value its definition provides

P( X k ) P( X k 1) and P( X k ) P( X k 1) .

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

P( X k ) C n p k q nk P( X k ) C n p k q nk

n k k 1 n k 1 1 and n k k 1 n k 1 1

P( X k 1) C k 1 p q P( X k 1) C k 1 p q

(k 1)q (n k 1) p

1 and 1

(n k ) p kq

k np q (n 1) p 1 and k (n 1) p

combining

(n 1) p 1 k (n 1) p

Now two cases arise

Case1. Let (n+1)p be an integer then k can take two values namely

k=(n+1)p and k=(n+1)p-1. Thus there are two modes and the distribution is

said to be bimodal.

Case2. Let (n+1)p be a fraction then since k is an integer it will take only

one value that is k=greatest integer less than (n+1)p and the distribution is

unimodal.

Moments:

Let X ( r ) X ( X 1)( X 2).............( X r 1)

n

n ( r ) nr

(r ) E ( X ( r ) ) C kn p k q n k .k ( r ) C kn C k r

k 0 k (r )

n

n ( r ) p r C knrr q n r p k r n ( r ) p r (q p) n r n ( r ) p r

k r

(1) np

(2 ) n ( 2 ) p 2

(3) n (3) p 3

(4 ) n ( 4 ) p 4

Simple moments:

2 E ( X 2 ) EX ( 2) X n ( 2) p 2 np

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

3 E ( X 3 ) EX (3) 3 X ( 2) X n (3) p 3 3n ( 2) p 2 np

4 E ( X 4 ) EX ( 4) 6 X (3) 7 X ( 2) X n ( 4) p 4 6n (3) p 3 7n ( 2) p 2 np

Central moments:

2 2 1 2 n(n 1)p 2 np (np ) 2 np np 2 npq

3 3 3 2 1 21 3

n(n 1)(n 2)p 3 3n(n 1)p 2 np 3 n(n 1)p 2 np np 2(np )3

np(1 3p 2p 2 ) np(1 p)(1 2p) npq(q p)

4 4 4 3 1 6 2 1 2 31 4

n(n 1)(n 2)(n 3)p 4 6n(n 1)(n 2)p 3 7n(n 1)p 2 np

4np n(n 1)(n 2)p 3 3n(n 1)p 2 np 6(np ) 2 n(n 1)p 2 np 3(np ) 4

3n 2p 2 q 2 npq(1 pq) npq(1 3npq 6pq)

Let X is a Binomial random variable with parameter n and p its moment

generating function is defined as

n n

M X (t ) E (e tX ) C kn p k q n k .e tk C kn ( pe t ) k q nk (q pe t ) k

k 0 k 0

Example:. 6 coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting (i) exactly 3

heads, (ii) at most 3 heads, (iii) at least 3 heads.

Solution: Let X = No. of heads that appear.

n=6

6 C3 123 1 126 3

5

16

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

= p (X = 0) + p (X = 1) + p(X= 2) + p(X = 3)

21 .

= 32

= 1 P(X < 3)

= 1 [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)]

21 .

= 32

Example: Probability that a car driving the entire length of the certain

turnpike will have a blow out is 0.05. Find the probability that among 17 cars

travelling the length of turnpike

a) exactly one will have a blow out.

b) 2 or more will have a blow out.

P(X = x) = n C p x qn x .

x

= 17 C 0.05 1 0.95 16

1

= 0.374

= 1 P (X < 2)

= 1 [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]

= 0.27

5 or 6 is called a success. How many times do you expect to get 3 success ?

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

1

6 1

6 1 .

3

p 1 ,

3 q 2 3 , n 8.

8

PX 3 13 3 2 3 5

P (getting 3 success) =

3

= 0.2731

Example: An unbiased coin is tossed six times. What is the probability that

the tosses will result in:

i) Exactly two heads

ii) At least five heads

iii) At most two heads

iv) Not greater than one head

v) Not less than five heads

vi) At least one head

Solution: Let A be the event of getting head. Given that:

p = 12, q = 12, n = 6

i) The probability that the tosses will result in exactly two heads is given by:

26C2 1

2

62

1

2

2

6 5 1 1 15

1 2 24 22 64

Therefore, the probability that the tosses will result in exactly two

heads is 15/64.

ii) The probability that the tosses will result in at least five heads is given by:

5 5 6 6C5 1 2 1 2

6 5 5

6C6 1 2

66

2

1

6

5 6 1 2 1 2

6 6

7

64

Therefore, the probability that the tosses will result in at least five

heads is 7/64.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

iii) The probability that the tosses will result in at most two heads is given

by:

2 0 1 2

2 C 1 2 1 2 C 1 2 1 2

1

6 6

1

61 1 6

2

6 2 2

1 6 5 1 1 6 15 22 11

2

1

6

64 64 1 2 64 64 64 32

Therefore, the probability that the tosses will result in at most two

heads is 11/32.

iv) The probability that the tosses will result in not greater than one head

is given by:

1 0 1

1 6 7

64 64 64

Therefore, the probability that the tosses will result in not greater than

one head is 7/64.

v) The probability that the tosses will result in not less than five heads is

given by:

5 5 6

6 1 7

6

6

2 2 64

Therefore, the probability that the tosses will result in not less than five

heads is 7/64.

vi) The probability that the tosses will result in at least one head is given

by:

1 1 P( X 1) 1 0 1

1 1 63

6

1 .

2 64 64

Therefore, the probability that the tosses will result in at least one head

is 63/64.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

x number of head occurring when a coin is tossed 6 times.

20%. In a firm having five employees, what is the probability that:

i) None of the employees get the disease

ii) Exactly two will get the disease

iii) More than four will contract the disease

Solution: Let A be the event of employee contracting the disease. Given

that: 0.2 p

q 1 0.2 0.8

n=5

i) The probability that none of the employees get the disease is given by:

0 0.85 0.3277

Therefore, the probability that none of the employees get the disease

is 0.3277.

ii) The probability that exactly two employees will get the disease is given

by:

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

Therefore, the probability that exactly two employees will get the

disease is 0.2048.

iii) The probability that more than four employees will get the disease is

given by:

4 5 0.25 0.00032

Therefore, the probability that more than four employees will get the

disease is 0.00032.

SAQ 1: The latest nationwide political poll indicates that for Americans who

are randomly selected, the probability that they are conservative is 0.55, the

probability that they are liberal is 0.30, and the probability at they are

middle-of-the-road is 0.15. Assuming that these probabilities are accurate,

answer the following questions pertaining to a randomly chosen group of 10

American

a) What is the probability that four are liberal?

b) What is the probability that none are conservative?

c) What is the probability that two are middle-of-the-road?

d) What is the probability that at least eight are liberal?

SAQ 2: If the chance that a vessel arrives safely at a port is 9/10, find the

chance that out of an expected number of 5 vessels, at least 4 will arrive

safely?

7.4 Poisson Distribution

Definition:

Let X be a discrete random variable assuming the possible values 0, 1, ...

n

e k

If P X k , k 0, 1, 2, .......... ...n, .........

k!

We say that X has a Poisson distribution with parameter > 0.

Note: Let X be a binomially distributed variable with parameter p (based

on n repetition of an experiment). That is

n

P X k p k (1 p)n k

k

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

such that np

Under these conditions we have

e k

PX k

Lt

n k!

Mean:

Let X is a random variable following Poisson distribution with parameter

then the mean of X is defined as

e k

k 1

E ( X ) k.P( X k ) k e

e e

k 0 k 0 k! k 1 (k 1)!

Variance:

V ( X ) E ( X 2 ) ( E ( X )) 2

e k

k 2

E ( X 2 ) E ( X ( X 1)) E ( X ) k (k 1) 2 e

k 0 k! k 2 (k 2)!

V (X ) 2 2

Mode:

We have to find that value of the random variable X following Poisson

distribution for which the probability of occurrence is maximum. Thus, if X=k

is the modal value its definition provides

P( X k ) P( X k 1) and P( X k ) P( X k 1)

P( X k ) P( X k 1) k 1

P( X k ) P( X k 1) k

Combining both the equations

1 k

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

and 1 and the distribution will have two modes.

Case 2: Let be a fraction then k is the greatest integer less than .

Moments:

Let X ( r ) X ( X 1)( X 2).............( X r 1)

e k ( r )

k r

(r ) E ( X ( r ) ) .k e r r e e r

k 0 k! k r ( k r )!

(1)

(2 ) 2

(3) 3

(4 ) 4

Simple moments:

2 E ( X 2 ) EX ( 2) X 2

3 E ( X 3 ) EX (3) 3 X ( 2) X 3 3 2

4 E ( X 4 ) EX ( 4) 6 X (3) 7 X ( 2) X 4 6 3 7 2

Central moments:

2 2 1 2 ( 2 ) 2

3 3 3 2 1 21 3 3 3 2 3( 2 ) 2 3

4 4 4 3 1 6 2 1 2 31 4 4 6 3 7 2 4( 3 3 2 ) 6( 2 ) 2 3 4

3 2

Let X is a Poisson random variable with parameter its moment

generating function is defined as

e k

(e t ) k

M X (t ) E (e tX ) e tk e e ee e ( e 1)

t t

k 0 k! k 0 k!

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

probability that such a particle escapes from the container equals 0.0004.

What is the probability that more than 5 such escapes occur ?

Solution: Let X = No. of particles escaping from the container

n = 10,000, p = 0.0004

= np = 4.

Pr {more than 5 particles escape} = Pr {X > 5}

= 1 Pr {X 5}

5 e 4 4k

1 k!

k0

= 0.2148

0.2 evaluate P(X > 2).

Solution: P ( X 0) e

0 .2

O!

e 0 .2

0.6989.

P (X > 2) = 1 P(X 2)

= 1 [P(X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P(X = 2)]

= 0.33.

the population is involved in a certain type of accident each year. If its

10,000 policy holders were randomly selected from the population, what is

the probability that not more than 5 of its clients are involved in such an

accident next year?

= 0, 1, 2, 10,000

n = 10000, p = 0.001

= np = 10.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

5

e 10 10 k

Pr { X 5} k!

0.067 .

k0

1

Example: In a certain factory producing blades there is a small chance 500

for any blades to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10.

Calculate the approximate no. of packets containing (i) No defective blades

(ii) one defective in a consignment of 10,000 packets.

Solution:

1

n 10 P nP 0.02.

500

e

i) Pr (No defective blades } = P {X = 0} =

O!

e 0.02 0.98.

= 9800

0.02

ii) Pr {One defective blade} = P {X = 1} = e 0.02

1!

= 0.0196

= 196

SAQ 3: There are 300 misprints in a book of 500 pages. What is the

probability that a given page will contain at the most 2 misprints?

SAQ 4: A car hire firm has two cars, which are hired out everyday. The

number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson

distribution with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on which a

demand cannot be met due to lack of cars e 1.5 0.2231

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

Normal Distribution:

Let and be two real constants such that < < and > 0. Then

the probability distribution for which

2

x

1 1

f ( x ) N (, , x )

2

e .

2

is the density function is called the normal distribution and the

corresponding continuous random variable X is called the normal variate.

Note:

The function N(, , x) is symmetric about the line x = . The graph is

a bell shaped curve called normal curve.

Mean:

1

1 ( x )2

E( X )

x f ( x) dx

x 2

e 2 2

dx

x

let z x z and dx dz.

z 2/ z2

1 2

(.z )e

2

E( X) dz

2

2 z2

2

e 2 dz

0

z2

ze

2 dz 0 the fn. is odd

Put t = dt = zdz

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

2 t dt

E ( X)

2

0

e

2t

e

t 1

dt ( 12 )

1

t 2

0

( 12 )

Variance:

V (X) = E [ X E(X)]2

= E [X )2

2

1 x

1

( x )

2 2

e dx .

2

x

let z x z and dx dz

1

1 z2

V ( x) z e

2 2 2

dz

2

let t z 2/ 2 dt zdz

1

2 2

V (X )

2

t

0

2

e t dt 2

Mode: Mode is the value for which the density function f(x) is maximum,

i.e. mode is a solution of

f ( x) 0 and f ( x) 0

For normal distribution

1 x

2

1

2

f ( x) e

2

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

1 (x )2 f ( x) x

log f ( x) log 2

2 2 2

f ( x)

1

f ( x) ( x ) f ( x) and

2

And also

1 1

f ( x) f ( x) ( x ) f ( x)

2

2

1

f ( x) ( x ) f ( x)

2

f ( x) ( x ) 2

1

2 2

now f ( x) 0 gives x

1

and also f ( x) at x is 0

2

2

Hence x is the mode of the distribution.

Median: Since the probability distribution function of the normal distribution

is symmetric about x the median will also be at x .

The Normal distribution for which the mean is zero and the variance 1 is

called the standard normal distribution and the corresponding random

variable z is called the standard normal variate.

1

e Z / 2 .

2

( z)

2

The curve represented by this function is called standard normal curve and

it is symmetrical about the line z = 0.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

Note:

1) The cdf of the standardized normal distribution will be denoted by .

That is

s

1

e x / 2 dx.

2

( s)

2

2) If Z N (0,1)

P (a z b) = (b) (a)

3) If X ~ N (, 2) then

X

z ~ N (0, 1).

a b

P z

Hence P (a X b)

b a

4) ( x) = 1 (x).

p( X ) 0.68

5) p( 2 X 2 ) 0.95

p( 3 X 3 ) 0.99

normal distribution table and evaluate.

(i) Pr (X 2.3 ) (ii) Pr (1.8 X 2.1)

Solution :

(i) = 2, 2 = 0.16, = 0.4

X

Put Z , then Z ~ N (0, 1)

2.3 2

Pr ( X 2.3) Pr Z

0.4

= P (Z 0.75) = 1 P (Z < 0.75)

= 1 (0.75) = 0.2266.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

1.8 2 2.1 2

(ii) Pr (1.8 X 2.1) Pr Z

0.4 0.4

= Pr ( 0.5 Z 0.25)

function of and such that Pr (X C) = 2 P ( X > C).

Solution: Given X ~ N (, 2)

Pr (X C) = 2 P (X > C) = 2 [ 1 P (X C)]

= 2 2 P (X C)

2

P (X C) = 3.

C 2

P Z 3 0.6667 .

0.43

C = 0.43 + .

Example: The heights of 500 soldiers are found to have normal distribution.

Of them 258 are found to be within 2 cm of the mean height of 170 cm. Find

standard deviation of X.

Solution:

Let X denotes heights of 500 soldiers.

Given X ~ N ( 170, 2)

X 170

Let Z = then Z ~ N (0, 1).

258

0.516

500

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

Pr (168 < X < 172) = 0.516

Pr Z 0.516 .

Pr 2

Z

2

0.516 .

2 2 0.516

2

0.7 2.85

Solution:

Let X 75

Z then Z ~ N ( 0 , 1)

5

P { ( X 80) ( X 77)}

Pr ( X > 80 / X > 77)

P ( X 77)

P ( X 80 )

P ( X 77 )

80 75

P Z

5 1 (1)

77 75 1 ( 0 .4 )

P Z

5

= 0.4605.

SAQ 5: The mean and standard deviation of the I.Q. of a group of 500

children is 90 and 20 respectively. Assuming that the I.Q. is normally

distributed, find the number of children with I.Q. >100.

SAQ 6: In a normal distribution, 8% of the items are under 50 and 10% are

over 60. Find the mean and standard deviation of the distribution.

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

7.6 Summary

In this chapter several standard random variables, the associated formulas

are given. Identification of the probability distribution is must. With Bernoulli

trials the Binomial distribution could be good guess. The number of

occurrences of a rare event during finite period X could follow Poisson

distribution. Normal distributions could be used independently as well as

approximation to many probability distributions.

1. Of two equally strong ping-pong players A and B, is it more probable

that A will beat B in 3 games out of 4, than in 5 games out of 8.

2. Find the most possible number of heads in 7 tossings of an unbiased

coin and 50 tossings of a biased coin with p = 1/16.

3. The random variable X has Poisson distribution with p(X=1) = p(X=2).

Find p(X=4).

4. If the probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from injection of

a given serum is 0.001, find the probabilitythat out of 2000 individuals

(a) exactly 3, (b) more than 2, individuals will suffer from a bad reaction.

5. In n(15,3.52) population, it is known that 647 observations exceed 16.25.

What is the total number of observations in the population?

6. Suppose diameters of shafts are normally distributed with mean 10cm

and s.d. 0.1cm. If the shaft must meet the specification that its diameter

fall between 9.9 and 10.2cm, what proportion of shafts will meet

specification?

7.8 Answers

Self Assessment Questions

1. a) 0.2001 b) 0.0003 c) 0.2759 d) 0.0016

2. 0.9185

3. 0.977

4. 0.2231

5. 15

6. mean = 55.2, s.d. = 3.7

Probability and Statistics Unit 7

Terminal Questions:

1. Yes

2. 3 and 4, 8

3. 0.0902

4. a) 0.180447 b) 0.3233235

5. 1800

6. 0.8185

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