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Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527

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Transportation Research Part A
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tra

Modeling isoexposure to transit users for market potential analysis
Antonio Páez a,⇑, Martin Trépanier b,1, Catherine Morency c,2
a
McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics, School of Geography & Earth Sciences, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street, Hamilton, Ontario,
Canada L8S 4K1
b
CIRRELT, Department of Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, École Polytechnique Montréal, C.P. 6079, Station Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec,
Canada H3C 3A7
c
CIRRELT, Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering, École Polytechnique Montréal, C.P. 6079, Station Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec,
Canada H3C 3A7

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Transit operators face a difficult fiscal environment and an imperative to contribute to
Received 3 August 2011 urban sustainability. Under these circumstances, operators must find innovative ways to
Received in revised form 28 May 2012 make public transportation attractive to broader segments of the public, while simulta-
Accepted 14 July 2012
neously trying to raise revenue to reduce reliance on public subsidies. Development of
commercial partnerships is seen as a promising way to achieve these goals. Previous
research has examined the potential of using geodemographics to assist transit agencies
Keywords:
in the task of identifying potential partners for developing mutually beneficial commercial
Transit
Walking
agreements. In this paper we describe an approach to model isoexposure to transit users as
Isoexposure a tool to assess market potential. The approach is based on the analysis of walking behavior
Spatial modeling of transit users, and specifically distance walked at the end of their transit trip. Spatial
Market potential modeling is used to geographically project estimates of walking distance for a desired
demographic profile at a specific transit facility. After expanding the estimates using sam-
ple weights, overlays of these estimates can be used to generate variations in exposure to
transit travelers at different locations in space. The approach is demonstrated using the
case of Metro users in Montreal, Canada. The case study demonstrates the use of isoexpo-
sure profiles as a novel approach to generate marketing intelligence. This should be of
interest to transit agencies and businesses interested in developing partnerships.
Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Transit systems around the world face growing demands to contribute to the sustainability of cities (May et al., 2000;
Morency and Sioui, 2010). A challenge for operators therefore is to make transit relatively more attractive to broader seg-
ments of the public. Research into the factors that positively influence transit patronage (Currie and Wallis, 2008), reveals
that cost-effective approaches to achieve this include improved frequency and level of service (both of which imply in-
creased operation costs), and reduced fares (which implies reduced revenue). Improving service while keeping a lid on fares
is a delicate balancing act that is highlighted by the fact that transit systems have for many years tended to operate at a loss
and have thus required substantial support from the public sector (Hess and Lombardi, 2005). This situation has led to an
emerging interest on non-fare policies to increase the usability, convenience, and attractiveness of public transportation,

⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 905 525 9140x26099; fax: +1 905 546 0463.
E-mail addresses: paezha@mcmaster.ca (A. Páez), mtrepanier@polymtl.ca (M. Trépanier), cmorency@polymtl.ca (C. Morency).
1
Tel.: +1 514 340 4711x4911; fax: +1 514 340 4173.
2
Tel.: +1 514 340 4711x4502; fax: +1 514 340 5763.

0965-8564/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2012.07.004

overlays of these weighed buffers can be used to calculate the potential number of transit travelers at different locations in space. For some time. multivariate statistical analysis is conducted of the walking behavior of transit users. The research presented in this paper has two components. and specifically the distance they walk at the end of their transit trip. however. the term isoexpo- sure is adopted to describe areas in the vicinity of transit facilities characterized by having equal exposure to potential trav- elers. It has been shown. common business activity and related sources. This is sometimes leveraged by operators in order to create additional sources of revenue. Combined.. but also how many of them are likely to walk a sufficient distance to actually constitute potential customers. and particularly the distance that travelers walk around stations to assess their exposure . and/or loyalty points from commercial partners associated with the transit operator (Blythe. these tools can potentially help transit agencies to better market the benefits of locations close to transit facilities. The available evidence. preferably simple to implement and easy to interpret. can assist in the generation of valuable business and marketing intelligence. there is a need to develop a better understanding of walking behav- ior as a complement of transit trips. Hess and Lombardi. Based on the insights obtained from the statistical analysis market segments can be defined. 2. local and regional funding sources for public transportation include tax. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 including the introduction of rebates.and fee-based funding.. and financing mechanisms. Morabia et al. Páez et al. Canada. in fact. and in need of refine- ment. In this paper. After expanding the network buffers using sample weights. depends more broadly on the walking behavior of people traveling for purposes that include. Context and motivation Over the years. Transit systems in large cities can carry millions of passengers on a daily basis. 2008. small articles. that transit stations can become attraction poles for the location of business estab- lishments (Mejia-Dorantes et al. for instance. The concept of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is partly based on this fact (Atkinson-Palombo and Kuby. where it is used to define a geographical region of equal exposure to a phenomenon (e. non-tax based mea- sures. these tools can be used to gen- erate geodemographic and marketing intelligence for businesses to take advantage of transit investments and transit ori- ented development. traffic around transit facilities is widely targeted for marketing and publicity purposes. Páez et al. The basis for developing commercial partnerships with a transit agency is relatively straightforward. a proposal is to harness these synergies by formalizing agreements of mutual commercial interest. Furthermore. 2009). From the perspective of businesses. 2011. 2005). (2011) discuss the use of geodemographic analysis to identify potential partners for devel- oping partnerships with a transit agency.. and other items. Exposure to transit users. and are thus exposed to commerce and businesses in the vicinity of transit facilities.g. The development of isoexposure surfaces is demonstrated for the case of Metro users in Montreal. new ‘‘user’’ or ‘‘market’’ based sources. First. According to Transportation Research Board (2009). revenue streams from projects. indicates that locational patterns of commercial activities are reflective of the advantages of proximity to transit (Mejia-Dor- antes et al. and network buffers created to geographically project the potential paths of travelers egressing at specific transit facilities. The ability to describe exposure to transit users stands to benefit from a better understanding of the way travelers use urban spaces. as well. transit systems have traditionally relied for the most part on tax. since a business owner at a specific location would be interested not only in knowing how many travelers arrive at a station at a certain distance from her establishment. The tools discussed in said paper can identify the degree and significance of geographical clustering of different business types around stations. especially if transit smart cards are used as a catalyst for partnerships.. A key issue left unresolved. by Zhu and Timmermans (2011) using sophisticated modeling approaches. This exposure to transit users is generally acknowledged although it is not necessarily well understood. Of these funding mechanisms. 2011).and fee-based approaches. Páez et al. and provide estimates of number of travelers at certain distance ranges. For this reason. and in particular of the distances they typically walk from stations at the end of their transit trips. The concept of isoexposure is borrowed from medical science. discounts. 2012. Translating this understanding into a tool. (2011). The shopping behavior of pedestrians has been investigated. there has been an interest in capitalizing some of the accessibility improvements due to the presence of transit facilities through value capture. but are not limited to shopping. The case study demonstrates the use of isoexposure profiles as a novel approach that complements the tools discussed by Páez et al. as people may stop incidentally to buy coffee. the public transit industry has tried to find new sources of revenues to cope with the underfinancing of transit operation in cities (Gwilliam. among others. On the one hand. proximity to transit facilities effectively increases their market areas by extending their geographical reach proportionally to the coverage of the transit network. Estimates of exposure are only partial. On the other hand. The results of this model provide a frame of reference for understanding the demographic and socio-economic factors that influence walking trip length.. 2011). for direct lease of space or for developing commercial partnerships. Along these lines.1518 A. the mobility patterns of transit users at the end of their trips are less well understood. While this creates an opening for the adoption of alternative tax-based measures. re- lates to the behavior of travelers as they exit the transit system. magazines. 2000). For this exam- ple. Given the geographical synergies between transit stations and com- mercial establishments. however. Páez et al. People traveling by transit move around stations for access and egress. maps are produced that show the market potential (exposure to potential customers) in the areas surrounding Metro stations from the perspective of specified demographic profiles. 2011). the locational advantages resulting from proximity to transit also generate opportunities for non-fare. offers. The objective of this paper is to describe an approach to model isoexposure to transit users as a tool to assess market potential.

The 2008 survey was completed at a 4. In these phone-based surveys.977 millions Average age 34. and are thus an attrac- tive alternative for the purpose of analyzing the mobility patterns of transit users.29% Proportion of passengers in households without a vehicle 39.000 $ 21.69 Proportion of less than 25 years old 38.19% 18.100 households and a total of 156. and explain the pro- cedure adopted to create isoexposure profiles. and relevant to their activities beyond their zone of residence. Páez et al. The data used in this study is drawn from the 2008 Regional Household Survey of the Greater Montreal Area (Canada). A clear advantage of generating geodemographic information based on traveler information is that the intelligence gen- erated is specific to the use of space of urban residents. and information collected to include the mode of transportation and other mobility data items of interest. but would be expen- sive to collect on a broad basis so as to provide sufficient spatial coverage. and the Table 1 Descriptive statistics on Metro and other trips. 3. A limitation of smart cards. Data and methods In this section. location-based shopper surveys can be conducted at places of interest. fare type. Household information in- cludes the address. and includes 66. respondents in participant households are asked to re- port all trips made by all members of the household during the day before the interview. and live in households without a car. A.94% 8.89% 6. be single. 2008). we also excluded Metro-to-Metro and Metro-to-bus transfers. males tend to use Metro and transit less than females.46% 13.1. Information about household members includes their age.700 people. etc. This is the latest iteration in a series of large regional household surveys that have been conducted in the metropolitan area of Montreal every 5 years since 1970.570 1.1% sampling level. number of members. mode. Table 2 shows the variables selected for analysis of walking distance. After defining the criteria for selecting records.01 Proportion of passengers with annual household income <20. we describe the database and methods used to develop the walking distance model. but we decided to limit our coverage to records where the egress was at one of 64 stations located in Montreal Island.20 37. we extracted from the database the subset of records corresponding to users of the Metro system. Table 1 presents some descriptive statistics relative to the population segments traveling by Metro. Finally.52% Proportion of passengers living alone 19. Since our interest is on walking trips only. Users of Metro and transit are on average younger than users of other modes.93% 23. Such purposive data collection would provide rich data about shopping behavior.25% 27.50% 39.. which allows the spatial analysis of travel activities.03% . Further. Classical geodemographic and spatial marketing techniques are based on home location and Census data. An emerging source of information is provided by smart card automated fare collection systems. These systems are characterized by their ability to store information. In order to investigate the walking behavior of travelers at the end of the transit trips. Trips are described in terms of the time of departure. and vehicle ownership. The survey is checked for representativeness and sample weights are estimated in order to expand the sam- ple to the population of the metropolitan region. and occupation).05% 12. and trips. park-and-ride stations. and provide a source of data that can be used to investigate mobility patterns within and beyond the transit system. 3.84 0. Data sources Travel behavior data can be obtained from a number of different sources. gender. type of parking space. Walking distance for each record is defined as the network distance from the point of egress to the point of destination of the walking trip.203 millions 7. A Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview software (CATI) developed by a Montreal research team is used to support the collection of data (Trépanier et al. and driver license status. all transit. relative to all modes of transportation. gender. The remaining four sta- tions are sparsely located and do not map well when generating isoexposure profiles. how- ever. a total of 16. It can be seen there that Metro carries over half of all transit daily transit trips. the sequence of modes used (and list of transit routes).969 walking trips were extracted from the survey database. the Montreal Metro network consists of 68 stations. location of origin and destination. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 1519 to business locations. Surveys of this kind are routinely conducted in many cities around the world. Other variables extracted from the travel survey are attributes of the travelers (age.03% 38. An important feature of the travel survey is that origins and destinations are geocoded. 2007). is that they do not generate information about activity patterns beyond the transit system. tend to have lower household incomes. and all modes. For instance. licensing status. purpose. Other specific questions depend on the nature of the trip: for instance. their household (income)..76 34. to calculate traveler volumes at the stations (Trepanier et al. The survey gathers comprehensive information to describe household.00% Proportion of elderly (65 years and older) 4. An alternative is the use of household travel survey data.18% 11. and can be used.79 1. Trips characteristics Metro All transit trips All modes Number of trips per day 674. travelers.98% Men/women ratio 0. for instance.

and in particular the distance of pedestrian trips linked to rapid rail stations. Variable name Categories Description Domain/units Age General Age of user Decade Age 2 Square of age Square decade FEM Female user Binary (0-1) DRLIC Driver license Binary (0-1) PT Work status (ref = full time) Part time Binary (0–1) STUDENT Student Binary (0–1) RETIRED Retired Binary (0–1) ATHOME At home Binary (0–1) OTHER Other status Binary (0–1) INC2040K Annual household income (CAD) From 20 to 40 k$ Binary (0–1) (ref = below 20 k$) INC4060K From 40 to 60 k$ Binary (0–1) INC6080K From 60 to 80 k$ Binary (0–1) INC80100K From 80 to 100 k$ Binary (0–1) INCG100K Above 100 k$ Binary (0–1) INCREFDK Refuse/do not know Binary (0–1) DC2 Distance categories (ref = 0–500 m) Distance from 500 to 1000 m Binary (0–1) DC3 Distance from 1000 to 1500 m Binary (0–1) STUDIES Trip purpose (ref = work) Study trip Binary (0–1) RETURNHOME Return to home trip Binary (0–1) LEISURE Leisure trip Binary (0–1) SHOPPING Shopping trip Binary (0–1) OTHERPURP Other purpose (medical. visit. 3. regression analysis was conducted using a Poisson formulation. few will be long). To account for distance-decay variations at different distances to the destination (many trips will be short. Using multiple regression analysis and analysis of the variance.1520 A. in Colombia. These authors specifically focused on the micro-level aspects of the built environment and their influence in walkability in the areas surrounding the stations. Given the nature of the dependent variable (counts). these authors demonstrated that. we also created three indicator variables (less than 500 m. etc. (2009). as follows: ! X K X J1 lnðdi Þ ¼ b0 þ X ik bk þ X ik Sij hkj þ ei ð1Þ k¼1 j¼1 . The context for the research of Rodriguez et al. we generate a set of dummy variables for the stations that we use to interact with the individual and neighborhood variables to capture station-specific effects. Other variables are used to describe urban form at the point of egress. Introduction of these contextual effects attends to the suggestion of Verhetsel and Vanel- slander (2010) that the areas of influence of transit stations vary locally and must be spatially differentiated. The form of the regression model is thus log-linear. walking distance tended to vary between stations. Analysis of walking distance in the vicinity of stations Pedestrian behavior of travelers in the proximity of transit stations has been studied by Townsend and Zacharias (2010) and Rodriguez et al. into Professional and Managerial and Blue Collar/Trade/Service jobs. Townsend and Zacharias (2010) investigated pedestrian movement in Bangkok. between 500–1000 m.) Binary (0–1) PopDen Urban form attributes around Metro Population density Persons/km2 station PMDen Professional and managerial jobs density Jobs/km2 BCTSDen Blue collar. zero otherwise trip (purpose). our interest is on walking distance from stations. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 Table 2 Variables used in the analysis. The analysis is thus closer in intent to that of Town- send and Zacharias (2010). Employ- ment density is separated by type of job. Páez et al. Finally. In order to ensure that estimates of walking distance are positive. In other words. the variable is transformed using the natural logarithm operator. trades and service jobs Jobs/km2 density S Station dummy variables 63 dummy variables (one station is Binary: Sij = 1 if individual i egressed at station taken as reference) j. including land uses. and between 1000– 1500 m). other things being equal. Analysis was conducted of the number of pedestrians traversing street segments. In the present case. A second finding was that land uses around stations also exerted an influence on walking distance. The results of this analysis indicate that segment- level attributes. positively influence the number of pedestrians in the neighborhood of light rails stations. These include population and employment density in the Dissemination Area (DA) of the station (DAs are the smallest Census geography publicly available). (2009) was the city of Bogota.2. the existence of contextual effects supports the proposition of Verhetsel and Vanelslander (2010) of spatial differen- tiation of stations.

3.i. The model is the outcome of a specification search that started with an exhaustive set of explanatory variables. and in possession of a driver licenses. . 1. we consider j = 1. The actual route is not known. and the environment around the station. Results 4. the network distance from station of egress to destination. Páez et al. and the term ei is the usual random term. A variance inflation factor in excess of 10 is considered Fig. . the first step to create the isoexposure profiles is to define a market segment profile. The coefficients b and h are estimable from the sample. assumed to be normal i. To avoid clutter in more regional representations of exposure. 2004). in order to create a weighted buffer. . / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 1521 The dependent variable in this model is di. and grouped according to their station of egress. 1C. with values giving aggregate exposure of all network segments within the grid cell. The model consists of a sequence (k = 1.3. . and typically there are multiple ways to reach a destination. Once attributes of interest have been identified. to target. male travelers. Exposure values are obtained from the overlay of weighted buffers. . . K) of explanatory variables X for each individual walking trip i. 4. as shown in Fig. The variables used in the final model were checked using variance inflation factors. Generation of the isoexposure profiles The model for walking distance provides a reference framework for identification of market segments. In order to recognize directionality in walk trips. Total exposure can subsequently be cal- culated from the overlay of weighted buffers. . Walking distance: model results Table 3 presents the results of estimating the regression model. for instance. In Fig. As previously described. a fine grid can be overlaid on the weighted net- work buffers. Exposure values can be represented at the level of street segments for micro- level analysis. Travelers corresponding to this profile can then be extracted from the database. it is possible to identify the most direct route that the traveler can take. A. . A profile can be defined as a demographic segment comprised of variables shown to be significant in the model. Since there are J = 64 stations in the analysis. 1B the process is repeated for a different sample traveler. the trip. these variables are selected to represent a broad range of attributes about the traveler. Pop- ulation exposure values are obtained by adding a weight to the network buffer generated. The table shows the estimated values of the coefficients and their corresponding p-values. 1. we consider 63 station dummy variables for the interactions. aged 35. network buffers are created based on the most direct route available to the traveler. and removed variables that were not significant at least at the con- ventional 5% level. The process is repeated for each traveler and each station.d.. Generation of the isoexposure profiles. J  1 station specific dummy variables (Sij) that are interacted with the variables X. Since the points of egress and desti- nations are known for travelers. This procedure is illustrated in Fig. . employed full-time. and the existence of multiple routes. In Fig. In addition. This representative traveler is replaced by the corresponding sampling weight. in order to create a set of (possibly overlapping) buffers.1. 1A a network buffer is created for one sample traveler based on egress station and destination. All operations required to calculate exposure and to represent isoexposure profiles can be easily implemented using a Geographic Information System (Hess et al.

0732 0. As seen in the map. at different stations.0000 Drivers license – – 5 Station interaction variables Population density 0. As seen there.0033 3 Station interaction variables Income > 100 k 0.1522 A. The adjusted coefficient of determination penalizes the model using the number of coefficients. perhaps because trips with these intents are more focused.7648 0.0359 0. Walking trips related to studies and returning home tend to be longer. is negative and significant. see O’Brien. The effect of population and job densities. 2007).9951 0. This is consistent with time-use perspectives. the influence of gender varies from station to station.504 Adjusted R2 = 0.0000 Leisure 0.1930 0.0499 0. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 Table 3 Model results.1213 0. the model also contains 44 significant station interaction effects.0000 DC3 1.502 r2 = 0. ln(network walking distance) = f(X) R2 = 0. relative to people with house- hold incomes below the $60. since more senior travelers tend to face more relaxed time constraints. The results of the model indicate that the effect of age on walking distance is non-monotonic. and two stations located near from each other can have reverse effect.0018 3 Station interaction variables FEMALE – – 13 Station interaction variables Occupation Full time work Reference Part time work 0. but given the large sample size the difference is only marginal. Examples of isoexposure profiles In order to create the isoexposure profiles in these examples.0741 0. or not at all.0007 0. Metro users with higher incomes tend to walk longer distances around stations. before seeing a slight uptick beginning at about age 65.000 line.0000 a sign of multicollinearity (however.6125 0.0000 Return home 0.1520 0. the procedure previously outlined was followed using a net- work buffer distance of 100 m based on the most direct route between station of egress and destination for sample travelers. 2 represents the stations and the value of the interaction coefficient obtained for each station for the variable FEMALE.0000 DC2 0.0005 1 Station interaction variable Income 80–100 k 0. While it would be cumbersome to show all interactions in a table. The coefficient of determination indicates a reasonably good fit of the model. the station interactions for specific attributes could be easily represented in the form of maps. consistent with the expectation that land use and urban form matter.0000 Employment density (p&m) 0. However. the map in Fig. leisure trips tend to be shorter. The station interaction effects contribute to spatially differentiate the effect of some variables at spe- cific stations. The example is for the central region of the island of Montreal (the region where the Metro stations are located). walking distance from egress station is significantly influenced by a number of covariates.349 n = 14. In contrast to the analysis of Townsend and Zacharias (2010) that did not find significant variations by socio-economic and demographic attri- butes. As seen in the table.842 Variable Estimate p-Value Number of significant interactions (at p < 0. Páez et al.0000 Demographic Age 0.05) CONST 5. In addition to the 15 variables shown in the table. 4.0155 INCOME – – Income < 20 k Reference Income 20–40 k – – 5 Station interaction variables Income 40–60 k – – 10 Station interaction variables Income 60–80 k 0. gender exerts its effect differently. The income effect is interesting.0001 6 Station interaction variables Age2 0. The results of our check indicate that all inflation factors are below 10.0509 0. we find that age.2. decreasing with increasing age. Specific user . whether this by itself requires corrective action has been disputed.0601 0. occupation.0492 at home 0.0001 Trip purpose Work REFERENCE Studies 0.0033 0.0054 0. income. and the majority of them are below 2. As an example. and trip purpose display a significant association with walking distance at the end of a transit trip.

employed full time. 4. an inset shows the level of exposure for individual street segments. The model indicates significant differences by gender. In addition. and who is a driver license holder. It can be seen that there are notable differences between the market potential of females and males. The first isoexposure map is shown in Fig. employment status. but sufficient to show the spectrum of results that can be obtained from the method. The map also shows that exposure is not evenly distrib- uted around stations. where each segment is coded using the potential number of travelers in the street during a 1-day period. The map shows that the market potential corresponding to this demographic segment is greatest in the southern part of the CBD and in the two Metro stations in the ‘‘Plateau’’ neighborhood. age. even when other attributes remain constant. This can be seen for exam- ple in the vicinity of ‘‘Jean-Talon Market’’. For the purpose of the example. It is worthwhile to note that these maps are specific. and licensing status. shown in Fig. For instance. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 1523 Fig. The model thus suggests the examination of market segments based on these factors. aged 20–30. and in fact tends to increase due to interactions between multiple stations. Each isoexposure map presents an image at the regional level (based on a 100  100 m grid) where each cell is coded by the potential number of travelers in the cell during a 1-day period. the market potential of (exposure to) females is greater in the northwestern part of the CBD. profiles were defined based on the regression model. The second example. with a household income from 20 to 60 thousand dollars. we present four isoexposure maps that show the market potential corresponding to the selected profiles. 3. The neighborhoods . as opposed to the eastern part as was the case for comparable males. A. where two Metro lines cross. Map of the stations and value of the interaction coefficients associated with the variable FEMALE. Páez et al. The profile selected to generate this figure is a male traveler. presents the isoexposure profile for an identical profile to the first example. with the exception of gender. income level. 2.

driver license holder.1524 A. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 Fig. income 20–60 thousand dollars. Profile 1: Male. of ‘‘Jean-Talon Market’’ and ‘‘Hochelaga’’ display higher levels of exposure to females. despite the fact that there are more female riders in the system. Páez et al. Regional and local isoexposure maps showing the number of potential Montreal Metro travelers per day. income 20–60 thousand dollars. aged 20–30. 4. driver license holder. the market potential is lower in the ‘‘Plateau’’ neighborhood compared to the profile for males. In contrast. Regional and local isoexposure maps showing the number of potential Montreal Metro travelers per day. employed full time. Fig. employed full time. aged 20–30. 3. Profile 2: Female. .

income 60–100 thousand dollars. aged 30–50. The market potential of this demographic segment is much more heavily concentrated in Fig. . driver license holder. Profile 4: Female. employed full time. A. Regional and local isoexposure maps showing the number of potential Montreal Metro travelers per day. Regional and local isoexposure maps showing the number of potential Montreal Metro travelers per day. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 1525 Variations in the level of exposure can also be seen for higher incomes and older people. Páez et al. and a driver’s license. Profile 3: Male. 5 presents the isoexposure maps for Profile 3. 6. employed full time. Fig. employed full time. income 60–100 thousand dollars. Fig. driver license holder. 5. with a household income of 60–100 thousand dollars. corresponding to males aged 30–50. aged 30–50.

Intelligent Transportation Systems Journal 6. by attaching probability values to street segments that are less likely to be visited (Downs and Horner. The results thus serve to identify areas of higher or lower market potential. We suggest that information derived from the analysis of exposure.. Finally. our analysis has shown that walking distance from the point of egress of the transit network is influenced by age. While this recog- nizes directionality of the walking trip. Profiles 3 and 4 appear to be more concentrated. Lombardi. S. 72–80. or the quality of available destinations. P. Acknowledgment The authors wish to acknowledge the Montreal technical committee on Origin-Destination travel surveys for providing access to the data for research purposes..1526 A. Journal of Transport Geography 19. public transit data holds considerable potential for enabling and supporting commercial partnerships that could create new sources of revenue for transit operators. Rubin. Public Works Management & Policy 10. . Shepherd. 138–156. Arizona. employment status and gender. Transforming access to and payment for transport services through the use of smart cards. 23. It is still possible to appre- ciate some intriguing differences in detail. In terms of the walking behavior of transit users... L. That being said.. Mod- eling isoexposure profiles. Research in Transportation Economics 23. (2009). Journal of Transport Geography 16. The approach is supported by multivariate statistical analysis of walk distance. P... 2008. D. the potential exposure profiles could form the basis of additional data collection efforts to assess the quality of pedestrian environments. M. Journal of Transport Geography. However.S..A. 2000. As previously noted (see Páez et al. Probabilistic potential path trees for visualizing and analyzing vehicle tracking data. The concept of isoexposure maps could be applied to other types of transportation infrastructure.M.. C. 2008. More sophisticated modeling approaches (e. which consequently has an impact on the exposure/market potential of businesses. G. 2005. 2004.. this work brings new perspectives on the research on marketing of public transit. P. Currie.g. M. Gwilliam. Effective ways to grow urban bus markets – a synthesis of evidence. 189–199. Canada.M. We placed great value especially in ease of communication. / Transportation Research Part A 46 (2012) 1517–1527 the CBD area. J. The same is true for Profile 4 (Fig. 4–22... we also find that land uses influence walking behavior in the vicinity of transit stations. Compared to Profiles 1 and 2. Blythe. Páez et al. 2011. For instance. West. Optimal transport strategies for European cities. Downs. In: 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. we have used network buffers based on the most direct route between the egress station and the destination. A. A. Discussion and conclusion This paper has presented an approach to model isoexposure profiles based on the pattern of walking trips of transit users from their exit point of the transit network. Zhu and Timmermans. Application of spatial modeling allows us to obtain estimates of exposure to transit users at different points in space. Transportation 27. Furthermore. Further. can be useful to businesses in order to plan marketing. as illustrated in the paper.B.J.A. micro-scale built environment data are seldom collected in a sufficiently systematic and extensive way (Parmenter et al. the buffers assume that the traveler is equally likely to traverse any of the street seg- ments in the buffer. 2011. Transportation infrastructure impacts on firm location: the effect of a new metro line in the suburbs of Madrid. Similar to the studies of Townsend and Zacharias (2010) and Rodriguez et al. 45– 68. 2000–2007. 419–429... certain attributes of the built environment at the micro-scale influence the intention to walk. Unfor- tunately. (2009). The net effect of the model is to capture broad variations in the walking behavior of transit users.L. Horner. in press). the approach can be refined as desired in several ways. 5. Hess. R. I. Decision Support Systems 38.. L. For simplicity. for which ‘‘Jean-Talon Market’’ and ‘‘Hochelaga’’ had higher levels of exposure. as the tool is intended for decision makers in transit agencies and the private sector. current issues..A. 6). A review of issues in transit economics. income. J. Mejia-Dorantes. K. 2011) could help to introduce other aspects of pedestrian behavior. Timms. in order to refine the definition of market segments. 2000. Vasallo. Washington. 197– 212. Governmental subsidies for public transit: history. and recent evidence. Sophisticated time-geographical approaches are currently being developed that could be adopted to refine the way exposure is calculated. Hess. Geographic information systems as a marketing information system technology. DC.. Páez. exposure relative to older and more affluent travelers tends to be lower in these areas.P. promotions. 285–315. 2011).W. Wallis. R. can help to identify regions of the city where exposure to travelers of a designated demographic profile is higher. we find evidence that these influences tend to vary by Metro stations – a finding that is generally in agreement with the research of Townsend and Zach- arias (2010). The approach was demonstrated using the case of Metro users in Montreal. but for gender. and operations. potential for females tends to be more oriented towards the south. such as roads and bike paths. The geography of advance transit-oriented development in metropolitan Phoenix.. there are variations in directionality: whereas the market potential for males extends further in the east direction in the CBD.D.. attending to individual variables and the characteristics of the stations. Kuby. May. and it can be seen that the levels of exposure to these demographic segments outside of the CBD tend to be fairly low.. in press. 2008). as found by Rodriguez et al. given a target market segment. References Atkinson-Palombo.. Our objective in this paper has been to describe an approach that is simple to implement and easy to interpret and com- municate. which is identical to Profile 3.

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