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Table/Figure Page Number of

Number publication[1]

Table 1 3

Table 2 16

Table 3 18

Table 4 30

Table 5 30

Data for Figure 4 24

Data for Figure 5 26

Data for Figure 6 27

Annex B 40

Annex C 43

Data for Annex D 44

Annex E 47

Annex F 55

Annex G 60

[1]
MOJ (2013). Analysis of the impact of employment on re-offending following release from custody, using Prope
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/162375/impact-employment-reoffending.p
Table Name

Table 1: Re-offending rates by P45 employment status in the year after release from custody in 2008

Table 2: Descriptive statistics for offenders sentenced to a custodial sentence of less than one year

Table 3: Descriptive statistics for custodial sentences of one year or more

Table 4: Impact of removing P45 employment spells with randomly allocated start dates

Table 5: Removing offenders with a P45 employment spell after re-offence from comparison

Data underlying Figure 4: One year proven re-offending rates after matching.

Data underlying Figure 5: Survival curves showing time to first re-offence for offenders released from custody after a sente

Data underlying Figure 6: Survival curves showing time to first re-offence for offenders released from custody after a sente

Annex B: Available variables for creating the comparison group

Annex C: Logistic regression models

Data underlying Annex D: Distributions of propensity scores before and after matching

Annex E: Assessing balance after matching

Annex F: Testing the difference in re-offending rates

Annex G: Benefit and P45 employment status of all offenders released from custody and offenders serving sentences in th

mpact of employment on re-offending following release from custody, using Propensity Score Matching
/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/162375/impact-employment-reoffending.pdf.pdf
Notes
These tables accompany MoJ's publication 'Analysis of the impact of employment on re-offending following rele

The analysis compares the re-offending rates for offenders who get P45 employment in the year following their
of offenders with no P45 employment. Matching enables us to more confidently estimate the impact of P45 em
differences between the offenders who did and did not get P45 employment on other characteristics.

All tables, except for Annex G, are based on the sample used in the Propensity Score Matching; so are a samp
Only those with valid OASys assessments were used in the analysis, so results cannot be generalised to the w

Annex G uses a different sample of offenders to the other tables. It tracks offenders released from custody and
employment status over time. This is given to provide extra context for the Employment and Re-offending analy

Tables 1 through to Table 3 are before matching, Table 4 through to Annex F are after matching.

Definitions of employment and re-offending for this analysis

Employment:

Any P45 employment spell lasting more than one day is considered an employment spell. Only P45 employme
re-offence are included in the analysis, so we can isolate the impact of P45 employment on the likelihood of re-

Re-offending:

Our outcome measure is the proven one year re-offending rate - any offence committed in the 12 months aft
caution, reprimand or warning in the 12 month period or within a further six month waiting period.
ent on re-offending following release from custody, using Propensity Score Matching'

yment in the year following their release from custody with a matched comparison group
y estimate the impact of P45 employment post-custody on re-offending by minimising the
other characteristics.

Score Matching; so are a sample of offenders released from custody in 2008.


s cannot be generalised to the whole offender population.

nders released from custody and offenders given sentences in the community and looks at their
ployment and Re-offending analysis.

e after matching.

ment spell. Only P45 employment spells which occur prior to the first
ployment on the likelihood of re-offending.

committed in the 12 months after release from custody which receives a court conviction,
nth waiting period.
Table 1: Re-offending rates by P45 employment status in the year after release from cu

Length of custodial sentence One year proven re-offending rate

P45 employment spell No P45 employment spell


after release after release

Less than one year 32% 69%

1 year or more 18% 43%

Based on the sample used in the analysis


[1]
he year after release from custody in 2008, (before matching) [1]
Table 2: Descriptive statistics for offenders sentenced to a custodial sentence of unde

P45 employment
after release

Number of offenders in the cohort: 2,360

One year proven re-offending: 32%


Male: 94%
Some problems in attitude towards employment: 23%
Serious problems in attitude towards employment: 5%
At least some problems with alcohol misuse: 64%
At least some problems with drug 39%
misuse:
Mean (SD)A:

Age at date of index offence: 28.4 ( 9.6)


Previous Court Convictions: 19.0 (26.4)
Weeks in P45 employment
in year prior to custody: 15.4 (20.6)
Weeks receiving an out-of-work benefit
in year prior to custody: 13.6 (18.6)

A
The mean is the average, a measure of the "typical" value of a data set and the standard deviation (SD) measures how spr
A high standard deviation means that the values are widely spread.
to a custodial sentence of under 12 months (before matching)

No P45 employment
after release

12,190

69%
88%
41%
14%
62%
64%

Mean (SD)A:

29.8 ( 9.4)
38.5 (37.8)

4.3 (12.6)

24.8 (21.9)

the standard deviation (SD) measures how spread out the values are.
Table 3: Descriptive statistics for custodial sentences of one year or more (before matc

P45 employment
after release

Number of offenders in the cohort: 3,753

One year proven re-offending: 18%


Male: 94%
Some problems in attitude towards employment: 22%
Serious problems in attitude towards employment: 4%
At least some problems with alcohol misuse: 54%
At least some problems with drug 46%
misuse:
Mean (SD)A:

Age at date of index offence: 30.6 (10.8)


Previous Court Convictions: 19.0 (26.4)
Weeks in P45 employment
in year prior to custody: 13.2 (19.4)
Weeks receiving an out-of-work benefit
in year prior to custody: 12.8 (18.2)

A
The mean is the average, a measure of the "typical" value of a data set and the standard deviation (SD) measures how spr
A high standard deviation means that the values are widely spread.
of one year or more (before matching)

No P45 employment
after release

12,320

43%
94%
35%
10%
54%
63%

Mean (SD)A:

31.4 (10.4)
32.1 (34.9)

4.9 (13.4)

18.7 (20.4)

the standard deviation (SD) measures how spread out the values are.
Table 4: Impact of removing P45 employment spells with randomly allocated start date

Main findings Sensitivity test - Removing rand


P45 employment Comparison group Effect size (percentage P45 employment
(Treatment group) point change in re-off
rate)
Re-offending rate:
Sentences less than 32.2% 41.7% 9.4 31.8%
one year ppt changeA
No. matched pairs (2,298 pairs)
Sentences one year 18.8% 24.4% 5.6 18.5%
or more ppt changeA

No. matched pairs (3,622 pairs)

A
ppt = percentage point
allocated start dates (sensitivity analysis)

ensitivity test - Removing randomly allocated P45 spells


Comparison group Effect size

39.6% 7.8
ppt changeA
(1,869 pairs)
22.7% 4.3
ppt changeA

(3,102 pairs)
Table 5: Removing offenders with a P45 employment spell after re-offence from compa

Main findings Removing offenders with a P45 em


offence from com
P45 employment Comparison group Effect size (percentage P45 employment
(Treatment group) point change in re-off
Re-offending rate: rate)
Sentences less than 32.2% 41.7% 9.4 32.4%
one year ppt changeA
No. matched pairs (2,298 pairs)
Sentences one year 18.8% 24.4% 5.6 18.9%
or more ppt changeA
No. matched pairs (3,622 pairs)

A
ppt = percentage point
-offence from comparison (sensitivity analysis)

moving offenders with a P45 employment spell after re-


offence from comparison
Comparison Effect size
group

39.1% 6.7
ppt changeA
(2,274 pairs)
22.8% 3.9
ppt changeA
(3,609 pairs)
Data underlying Figure 4: Re-offending rates by P45 employment status in the year aft

Length of custodial sentence One year proven re-offending rate

P45 employment spell


after release

Less than one year


32.2%
1 year or more
18.8%

[1]
Based on the sample used in the analysis
y P45 employment status in the year after release from custody in 2008, (after matching) [1]

One year proven re-offending rate

No P45 employment spell after Difference in re-offending rates


release
(matched comparison group)

41.7% 9.5%

24.4% 5.6%
matching) [1]
Data underlying Figure 5: Survival curves showing time to first re-offence for offenders
less than one year. Offenders who enter P45 employment and matched comparison gr

Time to first P45 employment Matched Comparison


re-offence (days) (Treatment group) Group
Release Date 1.000000 1.00000
1 1.000000 0.99565
2 0.999565 0.99347
3 0.999565 0.99217
4 0.999565 0.99043
5 0.999130 0.98651
6 0.998695 0.98520
7 0.998695 0.98390
8 0.998259 0.98129
9 0.997824 0.97911
10 0.997389 0.97737
11 0.996084 0.97520
12 0.995648 0.97215
13 0.995213 0.97084
14 0.994778 0.96954
15 0.994343 0.96910
16 0.993473 0.96693
17 0.992167 0.96432
18 0.989991 0.96258
19 0.989556 0.96171
20 0.989121 0.95909
21 0.989121 0.95518
22 0.988251 0.95474
23 0.988251 0.95257
24 0.987815 0.95083
25 0.986945 0.94735
26 0.985640 0.94517
27 0.985205 0.94256
28 0.984769 0.94125
29 0.984334 0.93951
30 0.984334 0.93908
31 0.983464 0.93908
32 0.982594 0.93734
33 0.980853 0.93647
34 0.980418 0.93516
35 0.979983 0.93211
36 0.979547 0.93081
37 0.979112 0.92820
38 0.978242 0.92646
39 0.977807 0.92515
40 0.975631 0.92298
41 0.975196 0.92124
42 0.974326 0.92037
43 0.974326 0.91819
44 0.973890 0.91732
45 0.972585 0.91601
46 0.972585 0.91427
47 0.971279 0.91123
48 0.970409 0.90862
49 0.969104 0.90557
50 0.968668 0.90426
51 0.968668 0.90078
52 0.966057 0.89904
53 0.964752 0.89817
54 0.964317 0.89643
55 0.963011 0.89382
56 0.962576 0.89208
57 0.960836 0.89034
58 0.958225 0.88860
59 0.956049 0.88729
60 0.955614 0.88599
61 0.955614 0.88294
62 0.954308 0.88207
63 0.953873 0.87990
64 0.953003 0.87728
65 0.950827 0.87511
66 0.949956 0.87424
67 0.948651 0.87206
68 0.946910 0.87076
69 0.946475 0.86945
70 0.945170 0.86858
71 0.942994 0.86728
72 0.941688 0.86597
73 0.941253 0.86510
74 0.941253 0.86249
75 0.940383 0.86118
76 0.939948 0.86075
77 0.938642 0.85857
78 0.936466 0.85596
79 0.935161 0.85379
80 0.935161 0.85335
81 0.934726 0.85292
82 0.932985 0.85117
83 0.931680 0.85030
84 0.930809 0.84813
85 0.930374 0.84595
86 0.930374 0.84552
87 0.928198 0.84378
88 0.927328 0.84334
89 0.926023 0.84030
90 0.925587 0.83899
91 0.925587 0.83768
92 0.923412 0.83507
93 0.921671 0.83420
94 0.920801 0.83333
95 0.919930 0.83116
96 0.918190 0.82942
97 0.916014 0.82768
98 0.914708 0.82724
99 0.913838 0.82594
100 0.913403 0.82376
101 0.911227 0.82289
102 0.910357 0.82115
103 0.909051 0.81984
104 0.908181 0.81897
105 0.907311 0.81810
106 0.906440 0.81767
107 0.905570 0.81636
108 0.905570 0.81506
109 0.903829 0.81332
110 0.902959 0.81201
111 0.902959 0.81070
112 0.902089 0.80983
113 0.901654 0.80853
114 0.900348 0.80766
115 0.899913 0.80635
116 0.898607 0.80505
117 0.896867 0.80461
118 0.896432 0.80331
119 0.895126 0.80244
120 0.894256 0.80244
121 0.892515 0.80157
122 0.891210 0.79983
123 0.888599 0.79678
124 0.886858 0.79460
125 0.885988 0.79243
126 0.884682 0.79069
127 0.882071 0.78938
128 0.880766 0.78764
129 0.879896 0.78634
130 0.878155 0.78590
131 0.878155 0.78503
132 0.875979 0.78372
133 0.875109 0.78242
134 0.873803 0.78198
135 0.872498 0.78111
136 0.871192 0.77937
137 0.870757 0.77807
138 0.869887 0.77720
139 0.868581 0.77589
140 0.868146 0.77502
141 0.867711 0.77285
142 0.867276 0.77111
143 0.865970 0.77067
144 0.865100 0.76893
145 0.864230 0.76675
146 0.863359 0.76501
147 0.862054 0.76414
148 0.862054 0.76240
149 0.861619 0.76066
150 0.860748 0.75849
151 0.859443 0.75849
152 0.856832 0.75762
153 0.855962 0.75762
154 0.855962 0.75587
155 0.854656 0.75457
156 0.854656 0.75239
157 0.852916 0.74978
158 0.850305 0.74848
159 0.849434 0.74804
160 0.847694 0.74630
161 0.845518 0.74587
162 0.845083 0.74413
163 0.843342 0.74151
164 0.842037 0.74108
165 0.841601 0.73977
166 0.839861 0.73890
167 0.838555 0.73760
168 0.836379 0.73760
169 0.835509 0.73629
170 0.835074 0.73586
171 0.833768 0.73412
172 0.832028 0.73281
173 0.831593 0.73151
174 0.830287 0.72933
175 0.830287 0.72715
176 0.829417 0.72585
177 0.829417 0.72193
178 0.829417 0.71976
179 0.828547 0.71845
180 0.827676 0.71758
181 0.826806 0.71758
182 0.825936 0.71628
183 0.825500 0.71584
184 0.824630 0.71410
185 0.823325 0.71366
186 0.821584 0.71323
187 0.821149 0.71149
188 0.819843 0.71018
189 0.818973 0.70757
190 0.818103 0.70670
191 0.818103 0.70540
192 0.816362 0.70366
193 0.815927 0.70235
194 0.815057 0.70191
195 0.814621 0.70061
196 0.813316 0.70061
197 0.812446 0.69974
198 0.811575 0.69974
199 0.811140 0.69930
200 0.809399 0.69887
201 0.807659 0.69800
202 0.806353 0.69669
203 0.805483 0.69495
204 0.803742 0.69321
205 0.802002 0.69321
206 0.801567 0.69278
207 0.800261 0.69234
208 0.799391 0.69147
209 0.798956 0.69147
210 0.798956 0.68973
211 0.797650 0.68930
212 0.796345 0.68799
213 0.795474 0.68799
214 0.794604 0.68668
215 0.793734 0.68494
216 0.792863 0.68451
217 0.792428 0.68190
218 0.789817 0.67972
219 0.789382 0.67885
220 0.788947 0.67755
221 0.787206 0.67624
222 0.786336 0.67450
223 0.785030 0.67363
224 0.783290 0.67319
225 0.782419 0.67232
226 0.781549 0.67015
227 0.781114 0.66971
228 0.780244 0.66884
229 0.779373 0.66884
230 0.778938 0.66797
231 0.778503 0.66754
232 0.778068 0.66667
233 0.776762 0.66580
234 0.776327 0.66536
235 0.775022 0.66536
236 0.774151 0.66449
237 0.774151 0.66406
238 0.772411 0.66406
239 0.772411 0.66232
240 0.772411 0.66144
241 0.771540 0.66101
242 0.770235 0.66057
243 0.769365 0.66014
244 0.768059 0.65970
245 0.767189 0.65927
246 0.766319 0.65753
247 0.765013 0.65535
248 0.764143 0.65535
249 0.763272 0.65535
250 0.762837 0.65318
251 0.762402 0.65231
252 0.762402 0.65100
253 0.761532 0.65057
254 0.759356 0.65057
255 0.759356 0.65057
256 0.758050 0.65057
257 0.755440 0.64883
258 0.754134 0.64795
259 0.754134 0.64708
260 0.753699 0.64621
261 0.753264 0.64534
262 0.752829 0.64447
263 0.752829 0.64317
264 0.751523 0.64099
265 0.751088 0.63969
266 0.750218 0.63925
267 0.749347 0.63882
268 0.749347 0.63751
269 0.748912 0.63708
270 0.748477 0.63577
271 0.748477 0.63534
272 0.748042 0.63446
273 0.747171 0.63446
274 0.746736 0.63316
275 0.746736 0.63272
276 0.744560 0.63185
277 0.742385 0.63185
278 0.741079 0.63142
279 0.739774 0.63098
280 0.739774 0.63011
281 0.739339 0.62924
282 0.739339 0.62794
283 0.738033 0.62750
284 0.736292 0.62707
285 0.735422 0.62663
286 0.734552 0.62576
287 0.733681 0.62533
288 0.733681 0.62489
289 0.733681 0.62489
290 0.731941 0.62446
291 0.731941 0.62402
292 0.731506 0.62315
293 0.731506 0.62228
294 0.731070 0.62185
295 0.730635 0.62185
296 0.729765 0.62097
297 0.728895 0.62054
298 0.728460 0.62010
299 0.727589 0.61880
300 0.727589 0.61836
301 0.727589 0.61619
302 0.726284 0.61575
303 0.725849 0.61532
304 0.724978 0.61488
305 0.724543 0.61358
306 0.724108 0.61184
307 0.724108 0.61140
308 0.723673 0.61053
309 0.722802 0.60923
310 0.721932 0.60923
311 0.721062 0.60923
312 0.719756 0.60836
313 0.718886 0.60748
314 0.717145 0.60705
315 0.716710 0.60705
316 0.715405 0.60661
317 0.714970 0.60618
318 0.713664 0.60574
319 0.713664 0.60531
320 0.712359 0.60531
321 0.710183 0.60400
322 0.708877 0.60313
323 0.707572 0.60313
324 0.707137 0.60226
325 0.704961 0.60226
326 0.704526 0.60183
327 0.704526 0.60139
328 0.704526 0.60096
329 0.702785 0.60096
330 0.701915 0.60096
331 0.701915 0.60096
332 0.701480 0.60009
333 0.701044 0.60009
334 0.700609 0.59965
335 0.699739 0.59878
336 0.697998 0.59878
337 0.697128 0.59878
338 0.696693 0.59835
339 0.696258 0.59791
340 0.695822 0.59748
341 0.695387 0.59704
342 0.693211 0.59704
343 0.692776 0.59661
344 0.691471 0.59617
345 0.690601 0.59530
346 0.690601 0.59443
347 0.689730 0.59399
348 0.688860 0.59182
349 0.687990 0.59182
350 0.687119 0.59095
351 0.686249 0.59008
352 0.685814 0.58964
353 0.684508 0.58877
354 0.684073 0.58877
355 0.682768 0.58790
356 0.682332 0.58790
357 0.682332 0.58747
358 0.681027 0.58703
359 0.680157 0.58660
360 0.679721 0.58616
361 0.679286 0.58573
362 0.679286 0.58529
363 0.678851 0.58442
364 0.678851 0.58355
365 0.677546 0.58312
irst re-offence for offenders released from custody after a sentence of
nd matched comparison group.
Data underlying Figure 6: Survival curves showing time to first re-offence for offenders
one year or more. Offenders who enter P45 employment and matched comparison gro

Time to first P45 employment (Treatment Matched Comparison


re-offence (days) group) Group
Release Date 1.000000 1.00000
1 0.999448 0.99972
2 0.999448 0.99945
3 0.999172 0.99945
4 0.999172 0.99862
5 0.999172 0.99807
6 0.998896 0.99752
7 0.998896 0.99696
8 0.998896 0.99586
9 0.998896 0.99475
10 0.998620 0.99420
11 0.998343 0.99365
12 0.998343 0.99282
13 0.998343 0.99255
14 0.998067 0.99172
15 0.998067 0.99006
16 0.998067 0.98951
17 0.998067 0.98868
18 0.997515 0.98813
19 0.997515 0.98813
20 0.997515 0.98758
21 0.996687 0.98702
22 0.996687 0.98592
23 0.996135 0.98564
24 0.996135 0.98537
25 0.995030 0.98371
26 0.995030 0.98233
27 0.995030 0.98067
28 0.994754 0.98012
29 0.994478 0.98012
30 0.994478 0.97957
31 0.994202 0.97957
32 0.993926 0.97819
33 0.993650 0.97764
34 0.993650 0.97736
35 0.993650 0.97708
36 0.992546 0.97681
37 0.992546 0.97681
38 0.992546 0.97598
39 0.991993 0.97515
40 0.991165 0.97515
41 0.991165 0.97460
42 0.990613 0.97460
43 0.990061 0.97405
44 0.990061 0.97322
45 0.990061 0.97267
46 0.989785 0.97211
47 0.989509 0.97101
48 0.989509 0.96935
49 0.989232 0.96825
50 0.989232 0.96770
51 0.988956 0.96715
52 0.988680 0.96687
53 0.988128 0.96632
54 0.988128 0.96549
55 0.987576 0.96549
56 0.987576 0.96521
57 0.987024 0.96494
58 0.986472 0.96438
59 0.986195 0.96328
60 0.985643 0.96190
61 0.985091 0.96162
62 0.984815 0.96080
63 0.984539 0.95941
64 0.983987 0.95859
65 0.983435 0.95831
66 0.983435 0.95803
67 0.982882 0.95748
68 0.982330 0.95721
69 0.982054 0.95583
70 0.981226 0.95362
71 0.980950 0.95362
72 0.980674 0.95279
73 0.980398 0.95196
74 0.980398 0.95168
75 0.980398 0.95113
76 0.979569 0.94975
77 0.979293 0.94920
78 0.978741 0.94865
79 0.978189 0.94809
80 0.977913 0.94782
81 0.977637 0.94671
82 0.977637 0.94644
83 0.976532 0.94533
84 0.976256 0.94423
85 0.975980 0.94313
86 0.975152 0.94174
87 0.974876 0.94147
88 0.974324 0.94119
89 0.973495 0.94036
90 0.973495 0.93954
91 0.972667 0.93898
92 0.971563 0.93788
93 0.971287 0.93650
94 0.971010 0.93567
95 0.969906 0.93539
96 0.969354 0.93429
97 0.969354 0.93374
98 0.968526 0.93263
99 0.968250 0.93181
100 0.968250 0.93070
101 0.966869 0.92849
102 0.966317 0.92822
103 0.965765 0.92711
104 0.964384 0.92518
105 0.963832 0.92435
106 0.963556 0.92380
107 0.963280 0.92352
108 0.962728 0.92187
109 0.962176 0.92131
110 0.962176 0.92131
111 0.961900 0.92076
112 0.961900 0.91993
113 0.961623 0.91993
114 0.961347 0.91966
115 0.961347 0.91855
116 0.960519 0.91745
117 0.960519 0.91717
118 0.959691 0.91690
119 0.958586 0.91579
120 0.958310 0.91579
121 0.957758 0.91524
122 0.956930 0.91524
123 0.956654 0.91414
124 0.956102 0.91386
125 0.955826 0.91303
126 0.955273 0.91165
127 0.954721 0.91055
128 0.954169 0.90972
129 0.954169 0.90861
130 0.953341 0.90806
131 0.952789 0.90668
132 0.951960 0.90558
133 0.951132 0.90558
134 0.950580 0.90502
135 0.949752 0.90475
136 0.949475 0.90447
137 0.948923 0.90447
138 0.948371 0.90282
139 0.948095 0.90226
140 0.948095 0.90171
141 0.947267 0.89950
142 0.946715 0.89840
143 0.945610 0.89757
144 0.945058 0.89757
145 0.943954 0.89674
146 0.943678 0.89647
147 0.943401 0.89564
148 0.943401 0.89453
149 0.942849 0.89371
150 0.942021 0.89315
151 0.941745 0.89315
152 0.941193 0.89288
153 0.940917 0.89260
154 0.940641 0.89177
155 0.939536 0.89012
156 0.938984 0.88984
157 0.938984 0.88901
158 0.938432 0.88874
159 0.937604 0.88763
160 0.936775 0.88708
161 0.936499 0.88597
162 0.935395 0.88459
163 0.934290 0.88294
164 0.933186 0.88294
165 0.932910 0.88156
166 0.932358 0.88100
167 0.932082 0.88045
168 0.931806 0.87824
169 0.930977 0.87742
170 0.930149 0.87604
171 0.929321 0.87493
172 0.928769 0.87383
173 0.928769 0.87327
174 0.928216 0.87245
175 0.927940 0.87134
176 0.926836 0.87079
177 0.926284 0.87051
178 0.926008 0.86996
179 0.925732 0.86913
180 0.925179 0.86830
181 0.923523 0.86803
182 0.922419 0.86748
183 0.922142 0.86665
184 0.921314 0.86610
185 0.921038 0.86582
186 0.920762 0.86472
187 0.920210 0.86389
188 0.919658 0.86168
189 0.919105 0.86140
190 0.918829 0.86030
191 0.918001 0.85975
192 0.917173 0.85892
193 0.916897 0.85781
194 0.916897 0.85726
195 0.916068 0.85671
196 0.915792 0.85533
197 0.915516 0.85450
198 0.914412 0.85367
199 0.914136 0.85284
200 0.913031 0.85229
201 0.912203 0.85119
202 0.911927 0.85064
203 0.911927 0.84898
204 0.911927 0.84870
205 0.910823 0.84787
206 0.910823 0.84594
207 0.910547 0.84511
208 0.909442 0.84484
209 0.909166 0.84456
210 0.908614 0.84373
211 0.908062 0.84318
212 0.907510 0.84208
213 0.906405 0.84180
214 0.905853 0.84070
215 0.903644 0.84042
216 0.902540 0.83959
217 0.902540 0.83876
218 0.902264 0.83821
219 0.901988 0.83793
220 0.900331 0.83683
221 0.899503 0.83655
222 0.898675 0.83517
223 0.898399 0.83517
224 0.898123 0.83517
225 0.897294 0.83324
226 0.897294 0.83214
227 0.897294 0.83186
228 0.895914 0.83158
229 0.895362 0.83076
230 0.894809 0.83020
231 0.894809 0.82965
232 0.894809 0.82938
233 0.894257 0.82827
234 0.894257 0.82717
235 0.893705 0.82634
236 0.893429 0.82579
237 0.892325 0.82551
238 0.891496 0.82496
239 0.889288 0.82330
240 0.888736 0.82220
241 0.887355 0.82165
242 0.887079 0.82137
243 0.885422 0.82054
244 0.884870 0.81971
245 0.884594 0.81861
246 0.884042 0.81778
247 0.883214 0.81668
248 0.882938 0.81668
249 0.882385 0.81585
250 0.881557 0.81502
251 0.879901 0.81419
252 0.879901 0.81309
253 0.879072 0.81226
254 0.878796 0.81198
255 0.878520 0.81143
256 0.878244 0.81143
257 0.877140 0.81115
258 0.876311 0.81088
259 0.875483 0.81033
260 0.875207 0.80977
261 0.874103 0.80922
262 0.874103 0.80839
263 0.873551 0.80756
264 0.872998 0.80646
265 0.872722 0.80646
266 0.872170 0.80563
267 0.871618 0.80425
268 0.871066 0.80425
269 0.870790 0.80425
270 0.870514 0.80398
271 0.869133 0.80315
272 0.868581 0.80204
273 0.867477 0.80149
274 0.866372 0.80066
275 0.866096 0.79983
276 0.865820 0.79983
277 0.864716 0.79956
278 0.864163 0.79956
279 0.863887 0.79873
280 0.863611 0.79790
281 0.863059 0.79735
282 0.862507 0.79680
283 0.861955 0.79569
284 0.861955 0.79542
285 0.861403 0.79486
286 0.861126 0.79431
287 0.861126 0.79321
288 0.861126 0.79238
289 0.859470 0.79238
290 0.858918 0.79210
291 0.857813 0.79100
292 0.857813 0.79072
293 0.856433 0.79072
294 0.855605 0.79045
295 0.854776 0.79045
296 0.853948 0.78962
297 0.852568 0.78879
298 0.851463 0.78824
299 0.851463 0.78824
300 0.850911 0.78769
301 0.850359 0.78713
302 0.850359 0.78713
303 0.849531 0.78686
304 0.848978 0.78686
305 0.848150 0.78631
306 0.847046 0.78575
307 0.846494 0.78548
308 0.845941 0.78520
309 0.845389 0.78465
310 0.844837 0.78465
311 0.843457 0.78410
312 0.842628 0.78355
313 0.841524 0.78299
314 0.841524 0.78244
315 0.841248 0.78189
316 0.840144 0.78023
317 0.839867 0.77940
318 0.839591 0.77940
319 0.838211 0.77885
320 0.837383 0.77802
321 0.837383 0.77747
322 0.837107 0.77747
323 0.836554 0.77747
324 0.836002 0.77692
325 0.835450 0.77664
326 0.834898 0.77581
327 0.834622 0.77554
328 0.834070 0.77499
329 0.833241 0.77499
330 0.832689 0.77443
331 0.832137 0.77416
332 0.830756 0.77333
333 0.829376 0.77278
334 0.829100 0.77195
335 0.828824 0.77140
336 0.828548 0.77140
337 0.827167 0.77002
338 0.826339 0.77002
339 0.825787 0.77002
340 0.825511 0.77002
341 0.824959 0.76919
342 0.824959 0.76891
343 0.824682 0.76836
344 0.823854 0.76808
345 0.823026 0.76753
346 0.822750 0.76643
347 0.822198 0.76560
348 0.821369 0.76449
349 0.821093 0.76339
350 0.820817 0.76311
351 0.819989 0.76256
352 0.819437 0.76229
353 0.818332 0.76146
354 0.817228 0.76063
355 0.815848 0.76035
356 0.815572 0.76035
357 0.814467 0.76035
358 0.814191 0.75980
359 0.813639 0.75953
360 0.813639 0.75925
361 0.813087 0.75842
362 0.812811 0.75787
363 0.812535 0.75787
364 0.812535 0.75649
365 0.812258 0.75594
irst re-offence for offenders released from custody after a sentence of
d matched comparison group.
Annex B: Available variables for creating the comparison group

Variable Type
Personal/Demographic information
Gender Categorical
Age at date of index offence
(and age squared) Numerical

Government Office Region Categorical


Ethnicity Categorical
Criminal history and contact with CJS
Index offence Categorical
Sentence length for index offence Numerical
Offender has received an accredited
intervention while in custody Categorical
Offender has undertaken the Drug Treatment
Programme Categorical
Offender has undertaken the Sex Offender
Treatment Programme Categorical
Offender has undertaken the General
Offending Behaviour Programme Categorical
Age at first contact with CJS
(and age squared) Numerical
Copas rate (including PNDs)[1] Numerical
Number of previous violent offences[2] Numerical
Number of previous robbery offences Numerical
Number of previous public order offences Numerical
Number of previous sexual offences Numerical
Number of previous sexual offences (child) Numerical
Number of previous burglary offences (domestic
burglaries) Numerical
Number of previous burglary offences (other
burglaries) Numerical
Number of theft offences Numerical
Number of handling offences Numerical

Number of previous fraud and forgery offences Numerical


Number of previous drink driving offences Numerical

Number of previous criminal damage offences Numerical

Number of previous drug offences (import/export/


production/supply) Numerical
Number of previous drug offences
(possession/small scale supply) Numerical

Number of previous absconding or bail offences Numerical


Number of previous offences which resulted in a
conviction Numerical
Number of previous offences which resulted in a
caution Numerical
Number of previous offences committed in the
year prior to index date Numerical
Benefit and labour market history
Job density in offender's Local Authority Continuous
Number of weeks in P45 employment in
year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks receiving Jobseekers
Allowance in year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks receiving Employment &
Support Allowance in year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks receiving Incapacity Benefit in
year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks receiving Permanent Injury
Benefit in year prior to sentence Numerical

Number of weeks receiving Severe Disablement


Allowance in year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks receiving Income Support in
year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks receiving a DWP out-of-work
benefit in year prior to sentence Numerical
Number of weeks on a DWP employment
programme in year prior to sentence Numerical
OASys assessment variables
'Accommodation' criminogenic needs score Numerical
'Education, training and employability'
criminogenic needs score Numerical
'Relationships' criminogenic needs score Numerical
'Lifestyle and associates' criminogenic needs scor Numerical
'Drug misuse' criminogenic needs score Numerical
'Alcohol misuse' criminogenic needs score Numerical
'Thinking and behaviour' criminogenic needs scor Numerical
'Attitude' criminogenic needs score Numerical
Work Skills Categorical
Attitude to Employment Categorical
Financial Situation Categorical
Financial Management Categorical
Illegal income from criminal activity Categorical
OASys re-offending predictor Numerical
OASys violence predictor Numerical

[1] The Copas rate controls for the rate at which an offender has built up convictions throughout their criminal c
has in a given amount of time, and the more likely it is that an offender will re-offend within one year. The Copa

[2] All previous offence variables exclude Penalty Notices for Disorder.
parison group

Values

Male; Female

Integer values
12 UK regions. Series of binary variables. (NB data only covers Prisons and
Probation Services
in England and Wales but some Scottish offenders included)
Series of binary variables: White, Black, Asian, Other, Unknown

13 broad categories, e.g. 'robbery', 'sexual offences'


Continuous variable (no. days)

Binary variable. Values are No / Yes

Binary variable. Values are No / Yes

Binary variable. Values are No / Yes

Binary variable. Values are No / Yes

Integer values
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable

Continuous variable
Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable

Continuous variable (standardised)


Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Values of 0-52

Continuous variable

Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
Continuous variable
2 binary vars, reflecting No Problems / Some Problems / Significant Problems
2 binary vars, reflecting No Problems / Some Problems / Significant Problems
2 binary vars, reflecting No Problems / Some Problems / Significant Problems
2 binary vars, reflecting No Problems / Some Problems / Significant Problems
2 binary vars, reflecting No Problems / Some Problems / Significant Problems
Continuous variable
Continuous variable

s built up convictions throughout their criminal career. The higher the rate, the more convictions an offender
offender will re-offend within one year. The Copas rate formula is
Annex C:

Logistic regression model predicting P45 employment after release for offenders with custodial senten

Standard
Parameter Co-efficient Error
Intercept -0.0643 0.2846
Age at date of first contact with CJS 0.0214 0.00474
Age at date of index offence -0.0609 0.0155
Age at date of index offence, squared 0.00033 0.000215
Previous offences: Burglary (non-domestic) 0.0323 0.0116
Previous offences: Theft -0.0104 0.00526
Previous offences: Fraud and Forgery 0.0367 0.00907
Previous offences: Drink driving offences 0.0856 0.0251
Total number of previous convictions -0.0051 0.0021
Total number of convictions in year prior to index offence -0.0347 0.00788
Copas rate -0.2729 0.0576

Number of weeks receiving Jobseeker's Allowance in year prior to custody 0.0248 0.0104
Number of weeks in P45 employment in year prior to custody 0.0221 0.00156
Number of weeks spent on a DWP employment programme 0.00589 0.00248
Number of weeks receiving Incapacity Benefit in year prior to custody 0.00725 0.0105
Number of weeks receiving Income Support in year prior to custody 0.00766 0.0107

Number of weeks receiving Out Of Work benefits in year prior to custody -0.0181 0.0104
Whether received an intervention while in custody -0.3294 0.151
Whether attended the General Offending Behaviour Programme -0.4429 0.3046
No problems with financial management 0.225 0.0697
Serious problems with work skills -0.1173 0.0897
No problems with employment history -0.1183 0.0814
No problems with attitude to employment 0.1606 0.0752
Female -0.2761 0.1049
Burglary -0.2983 0.1287
Index Offence: Other Indictable offence -0.1386 0.0735
Ethnicity: Asian -0.2118 0.1142
GOR: London -0.212 0.0893
GOR: South East 0.1507 0.076
GOR South West 0.2312 0.1084
Criminogenic Needs Score: Accommodation -0.0146 0.00882
Criminogenic Needs Score: Education, Training and Employability -0.146 0.0242
Criminogenic Needs Score: Drug Misuse -0.036 0.0114

Logistic regression model predicting P45 employment after release for offenders with sentences of one

Standard
Parameter Co-efficient Error
Intercept 0.7154 0.2335
Age at date of first contact with CJS, squared 0.000165 0.000051
Age at date of index offence -0.0427 0.0107
Age at date of index offence, squared 0.000231 0.000145
Previous offences: Sexual (child) 0.0303 0.018
Previous offences: Fraud and Forgery 0.0131 0.0073
Previous offences: Drink driving offences 0.0386 0.024
Previous offences: Criminal damage -0.0286 0.0119
Total number of previous cautions 0.0181 0.0138
Total number of previous convictions -0.00028 0.00122
Total number of convictions in year prior to index offence -0.0113 0.00697
Copas rate -0.1323 0.044
Job density 0.0499 0.0204

Number of weeks receiving Jobseeker's Allowance in year prior to custody 0.00234 0.00169
Weeks in P45 employment in year prior to custody 0.019 0.00124
Number of weeks spent on a DWP employment programme 0.00726 0.0022
Number of weeks receiving Income Support in year prior to custody -0.00862 0.00259
Attended Drug Treatment Programme while in custody -0.1779 0.081
No problems with financial management 0.094 0.0578
No problems with work skills -0.105 0.0634
Illegal income from criminal activity: Some problems -0.1506 0.0526
No problems with unemployment -0.2676 0.0672
Index offence: Drug offences 0.1633 0.0638
Index offence: Fraud and Forgery 0.311 0.129
Index offence: Robbery 0.218 0.0664
Index offence: Sexual offences -0.1323 0.0915
Index offence: Violence 0.1287 0.0553
Ethnicity: Black -0.1183 0.0724
Ethnicity: Other (Not White, Black or Asian) 0.4522 0.23
GOR: London -0.2337 0.069
GOR: North East -0.2154 0.0922
GOR: North West -0.1102 0.0571
GOR: South West 0.1775 0.0913
GOR: Wales -0.1586 0.0924
GOR: West Midlands -0.1585 0.0685
Total criminogenic needs score -0.0436 0.0183
Criminogenic Needs Score: Education, Training and Employability -0.1953 0.0207
Criminogenic Needs Score: Drug Misuse -0.0237 0.0104
Criminogenic Needs Score: Alcohol Misuse 0.0326 0.0107
Criminogenic Needs Score: Atittudes -0.0396 0.0123

These tables show the variables that were used in the logistic regression model used in creating the matched c
(see annex B), but these are the ones that were important in predicting P45 employment after release. From th
characteristics affect whether an offender enters P45 employment on release from custody. In general, a positi
characteristic increases the likelihood of entering P45 employment, and conversely, a negative coefficient mean
likelihood of entering P45 employment.

For help in interpreting logistic regression outputs, see http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/sas


s with custodial sentences of less than one year.

Wald Chi-
Square Pr > ChiSq
0.0511 0.8212
20.425 <.0001
15.4447 <.0001
2.3591 0.1246
7.7119 0.0055
3.9455 0.047
16.3427 <.0001
11.5824 0.0007
5.9625 0.0146
19.4545 <.0001
22.4396 <.0001

5.6524 0.0174
200.0271 <.0001
5.6243 0.0177
0.4795 0.4886
0.514 0.4734

3.0529 0.0806
4.7602 0.0291
2.1144 0.1459
10.409 0.0013
1.7113 0.1908
2.1132 0.146
4.563 0.0327
6.9255 0.0085
5.371 0.0205
3.5533 0.0594
3.4408 0.0636
5.633 0.0176
3.9342 0.0473
4.5511 0.0329
2.732 0.0984
36.3054 <.0001
9.9739 0.0016

s with sentences of one year or more.

Wald
Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq
9.389 0.0022
10.3973 0.0013
15.8545 <.0001
2.5364 0.1113
2.829 0.0926
3.2228 0.0726
2.5829 0.108
5.8049 0.016
1.7298 0.1884
0.0527 0.8185
2.6355 0.1045
9.0413 0.0026
5.9914 0.0144

1.931 0.1647
233.9851 <.0001
10.8695 0.001
11.1059 0.0009
4.829 0.028
2.6415 0.1041
2.7388 0.0979
8.2133 0.0042
15.855 <.0001
6.5519 0.0105
5.8177 0.0159
10.7858 0.001
2.0923 0.148
5.4245 0.0199
2.6741 0.102
3.8661 0.0493
11.4799 0.0007
5.4603 0.0195
3.7269 0.0535
3.7771 0.052
2.9472 0.086
5.3483 0.0207
5.6555 0.0174
89.2392 <.0001
5.2379 0.0221
9.3022 0.0023
10.3005 0.0013

in creating the matched control group. Many more variables were available for use
ent after release. From the model outputs we can see how different offender and offence
stody. In general, a positive coefficient means that that offender or offence
negative coefficient means that that offender or offence characteristic decreases the

www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/sas/dae/logit.htm
Data underlying Annex D: Distributions of propensity scores before and after matching

Custodial sentences of up to one year:

Distribution of propensity scores before matching

0-0.04 0.04-0.08 0.08-0.12 0.12-0.16 0.16-0.20 0.20-0.24


P45 employment
after release n=2,360 3% 6% 9% 8% 10% 9%
No P45 employment
after release n=12,190 19% 22% 17% 12% 8% 6%

Distribution of propensity scores after matching

0-0.04 0.04-0.08 0.08-0.12 0.12-0.16 0.16-0.20 0.20-0.24


P45 employment
after release n=2,298 3% 7% 9% 9% 11% 9%
No P45 employment
after release n=2,298 3% 7% 9% 9% 11% 9%

Custodial sentences of more than one year

Distribution of propensity scores before matching

0-0.04 0.04-0.08 0.08-0.12 0.12-0.16 0.16-0.20 0.20-0.24


P45 employment
after release n=3,753 0% 2% 6% 9% 10% 10%
No P45 employment
after release n=12,320 1% 9% 17% 17% 14% 11%

Distribution of propensity scores after matching

0-0.04 0.04-0.08 0.08-0.12 0.12-0.16 0.16-0.20 0.20-0.24


P45 employment
after release 0% 2% 6% 9% 10% 11%
No P45 employment
after release 0% 2% 6% 9% 10% 11%
e and after matching

Propensity Score
0.24-0.28 0.28-0.32 0.32-0.36 0.36-0.40 0.4-0.44 0.44-0.48 0.48-0.52 0.52-0.56 0.56-0.60

7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%

4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

Propensity Score
0.24-0.28 0.28-0.32 0.32-0.36 0.36-0.40 0.4-0.44 0.44-0.48 0.48-0.52 0.52-0.56 0.56-0.60

7% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2%

7% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2%

Propensity Score
0.24-0.28 0.28-0.32 0.32-0.36 0.36-0.40 0.4-0.44 0.44-0.48 0.48-0.52 0.52-0.56 0.56-0.60

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3%

9% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Propensity Score
0.24-0.28 0.28-0.32 0.32-0.36 0.36-0.40 0.4-0.44 0.44-0.48 0.48-0.52 0.52-0.56 0.56-0.60

10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3%

10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3%
0.60-0.64 0.64-0.68 0.68-0.72 0.72-0.76 0.76-0.80 0.80-0.84

3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0.60-0.64 0.64-0.68 0.68-0.72 0.72-0.76 0.76-0.80 0.80-0.84

2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%

2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%

0.60-0.64 0.64-0.68 0.68-0.72 0.72-0.76 0.76-0.80 0.80-0.84

2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%

1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0.60-0.64 0.64-0.68 0.68-0.72 0.72-0.76 0.76-0.80 0.80-0.84

2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%

2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Annex E: Assessing balance after matching

Custodial sentences of up to one year

Before Matching

No P45 P45
Employment employment
(Control group) (Treatment group)

N: 12,190 2,360
Female 11.6% 6.4%

Black 7.7% 7.6%


Asian 4.3% 5.3%
Other 0.5% 0.8%

Criminal History:
Age at first contact with the CJS 17.5 19.5
Age at first contact with the CJS, squared 348.7 454.7
Age at date of index offence 29.8 28.4
Age at date of index offence, squared 978.6 901.5

Index Offence: Burglary 6.3% 3.7%


Index Offence: Common Assault 11.1% 13.6%
Index Offence: Criminal Damage 2.8% 2.7%
Index Offence: Drug Offences 3.2% 3.6%
Index Offence: Fraud and forgery 1.8% 3.2%
Index Offence: Other Indictable offence 13.2% 15.2%
Index Offence: Other summary offence 6.0% 5.7%
Index Offence: Public Order Offence 2.3% 2.5%
Index Offence: Robbery 0.6% 0.8%
Index Offence: Sexual Offence 0.7% 1.1%
Index Offence: Summary motoring offence 8.4% 12.5%
Index Offence: Theft and Handling 27.3% 15.0%
Index Offence: Violence 12.0% 17.5%

Mean number of previous offences:


Previous Offences: Violence 3.5 2.4
Previous Offences: Robbery 0.3 0.1
Previous Offences: Public Order 2 1.2
Previous Offences: Sexual 0.1 0
Previous Offences: Sexual (Child) 0.1 0.1
Previous Offences: Domestic Burglary 1.1 0.5
Previous Offences: Other Burglary 1.6 0.8
Previous Offences: Theft 8.8 2.9
Previous Offences: Handling 1 0.4
Previous Offences: Fraud and Forgery 1.1 0.7
Previous Offences: Drink Driving 0.5 0.6
Previous Offences: Criminal Damage 2.1 1.4
Previous Offences: Drugs (Import/Export/Production/Supply) 0.1 0.1
Previous Offences: Drugs (Possession/Small Scale Supply) 1.5 0.8
Previous Offences: Absconding or Bail Offences 3.5 1.9
Previous Offences that resulted in a caution 1.5 1.3
Previous Offences that resulted in a court conviction 38.5 19.4
Previous Offences in year prior to custody 4.9 3
Copas rate -0.4 -0.9

Interventions:
Received the Drug Treatment Programme in custody 6.5% 2.5%
Received the General Offending Behaviour Programme in custody 2.0% 0.7%
Received any Prison Accredited Intervention 8.0% 3.0%

Government Office Region:


East Midlands 9.0% 11.0%
East of England 8.0% 10.0%
London 11.0% 9.0%
North East 6.0% 5.0%
North West 16.0% 14.0%
South East 11.0% 13.0%
South West 7.0% 8.0%
Wales 6.0% 6.0%
West Midlands 12.0% 11.0%
Yorkshire and the Humber 11.0% 10.0%

Labour Market:
Standardised Job Density in Local Authority 0.0 0.0
Weeks in P45 employment in year prior to custody 4.3 15.4
Weeks receiving Jobseeker's Allowance in year prior to custody 9.7 8.5
Weeks in DWP Programme in year prior to custody 2.6 2.7
Weeks receiving Incapacity Benefit in year prior to custody 10.5 3.5
Weeks receiving Employment and Support Allowance in year prior to c 0.2 0.0
Weeks receiving Income Support in year prior to custody 4.2 1.6
Weeks receiving out-of-work benefits in year prior to custody 24.8 13.6

OASys Assessment:
OASys re-offending predictor 60.9 44.9
OASys violence predictor 39.9 34.5
Illegal income - some problems 21% 14%
Illegal income - Serious problems 24% 11%
Financial Management - No Problems 32% 47%
Financial Management - Some Problems 41% 35%
Financial Management - Serious Problems 27% 17%
Employment History - No Problems 15% 37%
Employment History Some Problems 46% 46%
Employment History - Serious Problems 39% 17%
Attitude to employment No Problems 45% 72%
Attitude to employment - Some Problems 41% 23%
Attitude to employment - Serious Problems 14% 5%
Financial Situation - No Problems 27% 41%
Financial Situation - Some Problems 42% 38%
Financial Situation Serious Problems 31% 20%
Accommodation Criminogenic Score 3.1 2.1
Education, Training and Employability Criminogenic Needs Score 4.5 2.8
Relationships Criminogenic Needs Score 2.6 2.0
Lifestyle and Associates Criminogenic Needs Score 3.0 2.3
Drug Misuse Criminogenic Needs Score 3.3 1.7
Alcohol Misuse Criminogenic Needs Score 3.0 2.8
Attitudes Criminogenic Needs Score 4.6 4.1
Health and Other Considerations Criminogenic Needs Score 3.1 2.2
Total Criminogenic Needs Score 5.3 4.1

Custodial sentences of more than one year

Before Matching

No P45 P45
Employment employment
(Control group) (Treatment group)

N: 12,320 3,753
Female 6% 6%

Black 11% 9%
Asian 5% 6%
Other 0% 1%

Criminal History:
Age at first contact with the CJS 17.9 20
Age at first contact with the CJS, squared 385.1 500.1
Age at date of index offence 31.4 30.6
Age at date of index offence, squared 1097.3 1053.9

Index Offence: Burglary 19% 12%


Index Offence: Common Assault 1% 1%
Index Offence: Criminal Damage 2% 2%
Index Offence: Drug Offences 15% 16%
Index Offence: Fraud and forgery 2% 3%
Index Offence: Other Indictable offence 11% 11%
Index Offence: Other summary offence 1% 0%
Index Offence: Public Order Offence 0% 0%
Index Offence: Robbery 12% 13%
Index Offence: Sexual Offence 7% 8%
Index Offence: Summary motoring offence 1% 1%
Index Offence: Theft and Handling 6% 5%
Index Offence: Violence 20% 27%

Mean number of previous offences:


Previous Offences: Violence 2.9 2
Previous Offences: Robbery 0.4 0.2
Previous Offences: Public Order 1.3 0.9
Previous Offences: Sexual 0.1 0.1
Previous Offences: Sexual (Child) 0.1 0.1
Previous Offences: Domestic Burglary 1.9 1
Previous Offences: Other Burglary 1.9 1
Previous Offences: Theft 5.3 2.9
Previous Offences: Handling 1.1 0.6
Previous Offences: Fraud and Forgery 1 0.7
Previous Offences: Drink Driving 0.4 0.3
Previous Offences: Criminal Damage 1.7 1.1
Previous Offences: Drugs (Import/Export/Production/Supply) 0.2 0.1
Previous Offences: Drugs (Possession/Small Scale Supply) 1.4 0.9
Previous Offences: Absconding or Bail Offences 2.1 1.3
Previous Offences that resulted in a caution 1.1 1
Previous Offences that resulted in a court conviction 32.1 19
Previous Offences in year prior to custody 2.4 1.7
Copas rate -0.8 -1.2

Interventions:
Received the Drug Treatment Programme in custody 10% 6%
Received the General Offending Behaviour Programme in custody 6% 5%
Received the Sex Offender Treatment Programme 0% 0%
Received any Prison Accredited Intervention 14% 10%

Government Office Region:


East Midlands 8% 9%
East of England 7% 8%
London 13% 11%
North East 6% 5%
North West 18% 17%
South East 10% 12%
South West 4% 6%
Wales 6% 5%
West Midlands 11% 10%
Yorkshire and the Humber 11% 12%

Labour Market:
Standardised Job Density in Local Authority 0 0
Weeks in P45 employment in year prior to custody 4.9 13.2
Weeks receiving Jobseeker's Allowance in year prior to custody 7.8 6.4
Weeks in DWP Programme in year prior to custody 1.9 2
Weeks receiving Incapacity Benefit in year prior to custody 7.9 5
Weeks receiving Employment and Support Allowance in year prior to c 0.1 0.1
Weeks receiving Income Support in year prior to custody 2.6 1.3
Weeks receiving out-of-work benefits in year prior to custody 18.7 12.8

OASys Assessment:
OASys re-offending predictor 52.2 39.5
OASys violence predictor 34.8 29.0
Illegal income - some problems 22% 17%
Illegal income - Serious problems 31% 20%
Financial Management - No Problems 38% 50%
Financial Management - Some Problems 40% 35%
Financial Management - Serious Problems 22% 15%
Employment History - No Problems 20% 40%
Employment History - Some Problems 43% 42%
Employment History - Serious Problems 37% 18%
Attitude to employment - No Problems 54% 75%
Attitude to employment - Some Problems 35% 22%
Attitude to employment - Serious Problems 10% 4%
Financial Situation - No Problems 36% 46%
Financial Situation - Some Problems 40% 36%
Financial Situation - Serious Problems 24% 18%
Accommodation Criminogenic Score 3 2.1
Education, Training and Employability Criminogenic Needs Score 4.2 2.9
Relationships Criminogenic Needs Score 2.4 1.9
Lifestyle and Associates Criminogenic Needs Score 3.1 2.5
Drug Misuse Criminogenic Needs Score 2.9 1.8
Alcohol Misuse Criminogenic Needs Score 2.1 1.9
Attitudes Criminogenic Needs Score 4.3 3.6
Health and Other Considerations Criminogenic Needs Score 2.8 2
Total Criminogenic Needs Score 4.9 3.8
After Matching
Absolute Absolute
standardised No P45 P45 standardised
difference Employment employment difference
(Control group) (Treatment group)

2,298 2,298
18% 6.6% 6.4% 1%

0% 7.9% 7.7% 1%
5% 5.7% 5.4% 2%
3% 1.0% 0.7% 3%

27% 19.7 19.4 4%


23% 462.6 447.8 3%
15% 29.1 28.5 7%
12% 945.6 902.4 6%

12% 4.0% 3.8% 1%


8% 14.8% 13.7% 3%
1% 2.3% 2.7% 2%
2% 3.4% 3.5% 1%
9% 3.6% 3.1% 3%
6% 15.6% 15.0% 2%
1% 5.1% 5.7% 2%
2% 2.7% 2.6% 1%
3% 0.7% 0.8% 2%
5% 1.6% 1.2% 4%
13% 12.6% 12.5% 0%
30% 12.8% 15.3% 7%
16% 17.1% 17.3% 1%

31% 2.3 2.4 4%


18% 0.1 0.1 1%
24% 1.1 1.2 2%
5% 0.1 0 4%
0% 0.1 0.1 1%
29% 0.5 0.5 2%
28% 0.8 0.8 1%
53% 2.6 3 6%
33% 0.4 0.4 0%
14% 0.7 0.7 0%
3% 0.5 0.6 5%
27% 1.4 1.4 1%
15% 0.1 0.1 6%
37% 0.9 0.8 5%
45% 1.8 1.9 3%
11% 1.3 1.3 0%
61% 18.8 19.8 4%
43% 2.8 3.1 9%
63% -0.9 -0.9 7%

20% 2.2% 2.5% 2%


11% 0.5% 0.7% 2%
22% 2.6% 3.1% 3%

7% 10.0% 11.0% 2%
5% 9.0% 10.0% 3%
7% 10.0% 9.0% 4%
6% 4.0% 5.0% 1%
4% 15.0% 14.0% 2%
6% 13.0% 13.0% 1%
4% 7.0% 7.0% 1%
2% 7.0% 6.0% 3%
2% 12.0% 11.0% 3%
4% 9.0% 10.0% 2%

3% 0 0 4%
65% 14.2 14.6 2%
8% 8.4 8.7 3%
2% 2.6 2.8 2%
43% 4.3 3.6 6%
7% 0.1 0 3%
25% 2 1.6 5%
55% 14.8 14 4%

70% 44.2 45.5 6%


30% 33.3 34.8 9%
20% 14% 14% 1%
35% 11% 11% 2%
32% 49% 47% 4%
12% 35% 36% 2%
23% 17% 18% 3%
51% 37% 36% 2%
1% 47% 47% 1%
51% 16% 17% 2%
56% 72% 71% 1%
39% 24% 24% 0%
31% 4% 5% 3%
31% 42% 41% 3%
8% 37% 39% 3%
24% 21% 20% 0%
32% 2.1 2.2 4%
73% 2.8 2.9 3%
31% 2.0 2.1 3%
44% 2.2 2.3 4%
57% 1.6 1.7 5%
4% 2.7 2.9 5%
25% 4.1 4.1 2%
43% 2.2 2.3 5%
60% 4.0 4.1 4%

efore Matching After Matching


Absolute Absolute
standardised No P45 P45 standardised
difference Employment employment difference
(Control group) (Treatment group)

3,622 3,622
0% 6% 6% 1%

7% 10% 9% 2%
7% 6% 6% 1%
5% 1% 1% 3%

23% 20.3 19.9 4%


19% 516.7 494.8 3%
8% 31.2 30.7 5%
5% 1093.9 1059 4%

21% 11% 12% 3%


1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 2% 2% 1%
2% 17% 16% 3%
10% 3% 3% 1%
1% 11% 11% 1%
1% 0% 0% 1%
3% 0% 0% 3%
1% 13% 13% 1%
4% 9% 8% 4%
3% 1% 1% 0%
7% 5% 5% 1%
15% 26% 26% 0%

29% 2 2 3%
17% 0.2 0.2 1%
17% 0.9 0.9 5%
5% 0.1 0.1 2%
0% 0.1 0.1 2%
27% 1 1 0%
25% 1 1 1%
29% 2.6 3 7%
25% 0.6 0.6 2%
8% 0.6 0.7 4%
7% 0.3 0.3 3%
27% 1.1 1.1 2%
6% 0.1 0.1 1%
22% 0.9 1 2%
29% 1.3 1.4 3%
5% 1 1.1 4%
42% 18.3 19.6 5%
21% 1.5 1.7 6%
44% -1.2 -1.2 6%

14% 6% 6% 1%
5% 4% 5% 3%
0% 1% 0% 4%
13% 10% 10% 2%

4% 9% 9% 1%
4% 8% 8% 2%
4% 13% 12% 4%
6% 5% 5% 1%
2% 16% 17% 2%
4% 11% 12% 1%
6% 6% 6% 1%
2% 5% 5% 1%
3% 10% 10% 1%
1% 11% 11% 1%

3% 0 0 0%
49% 12.2 12.1 1%
11% 6.5 6.6 1%
2% 2 2.1 0%
19% 5.6 5.1 3%
3% 0.1 0.1 1%
15% 1.5 1.4 2%
31% 13.9 13.2 4%

52% 39.0 40.3 5%


33% 28.1 29.4 7%
12% 17% 18% 1%
25% 21% 20% 1%
24% 51% 49% 4%
10% 34% 35% 3%
18% 15% 15% 2%
44% 40% 38% 2%
2% 42% 43% 2%
44% 18% 18% 0%
44% 74% 74% 1%
31% 22% 22% 1%
27% 4% 4% 1%
21% 47% 45% 3%
7% 35% 37% 4%
17% 18% 18% 1%
28% 2.1 2.2 2%
57% 3 3 1%
28% 1.9 1.9 3%
37% 2.5 2.5 4%
40% 1.8 1.9 3%
8% 1.8 1.9 5%
33% 3.6 3.7 2%
43% 2 2.1 2%
52% 3.8 3.9 4%
Annex F: Testing the difference in re-offending rates[1]

The table below show whether matched pairs are concordant (both offenders within the pair do re-offend, or bo
of P45 employment. Where the pairs are discordant, there are more pairs where comparison group member re
than the reverse. This suggests that P45 employment reduces the likelihood of re-offending.

Part I: Custodial sentences less than one year

P45 Employment
Comparison Group No proven re-offence Proven re-offence
within one year within one year

No re-offence within 979 361


one year
Re-offence within one 578 380
year

McNemars Test
Statistic (S) 50.148
DF 1
Asymptotic Pr > S <0.0001
Exact 1.4 x10-12

The upper bound of the p value can tell us whether the effect of P45 employment would be significant, even if t
of P45 employment by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent etc. Even if we increased the odds of employment b
effect on re-offending.

Gamma p+ p- p (lower bound)

1 0.5 0.5 8.9 x10-13


1.05 0.5122 0.4878 3.1 x10-15
1.1 0.52381 0.47619 0
1.15 0.53488 0.46512 0
1.2 0.54545 0.45455 0
1.25 0.55556 0.44444 0

Part II: Custodial sentences lasting one year or more

P45 Employment
Comparison Group No proven re-offence Proven re-offence
within one year within one year
No re-offence 2,262 476
within one year
Re-offence within one 680 204
year

McNemars Test
Statistic (S) 36
DF 1
Asymptotic Pr > S <.0001
Exact 2.2 x10-9

Gamma p+ p- p (lower bound)

1 0.5 0.5 1.5 x10-9


1.05 0.5122 0.4878 6.3 x10-9
1.1 0.52381 0.47619 1.8 x10-14
1.15 0.53488 0.46512 0
1.2 0.54545 0.45455 0
1.25 0.55556 0.44444 0

[1]
For further information about these tests, see p55 of the Employment and Re-offending publication.
within the pair do re-offend, or both do not re-offend) or discordant, and the direction of the effect
re comparison group member re-offends but the offender with a P45 employment spell does not,
re-offending.

ent would be significant, even if there was an unobserved variable which increased the odds
eased the odds of employment by 25 per cent, P45 employment would still have a significant effect on re-offending.

p (upper bound)

8.9 x10-13
8.9 x10-13
0.000000012
0.000000523
0.000012337
0.000174846
p (upper bound)

0
0
0.000009
0.000235
0.003083
0.023152

e-offending publication.
Annex G: Benefit and P45 employment status of all offenders released from custody a
sentences in the community in 2008[1]

All offenders released starting community / suspended sentences 2008

Proportion of offenders
claiming benefits
4 weeks before entering sentence date 42%
Sentence Date 44%
2 weeks after sentence date 46%
2 years after sentence date 51%

Proportion of offenders released from custody or starting community sentences in 2008 who claimed b
or were in P45 employment at some point in the two years following release / sentence date

Proportion of offenders
who claimed benefits

Offenders released from custody in 2008:


Under 12 month custodial sentences 83%
Twelve month or more custodial sentences 79%
All offenders released from custody 82%

Offenders starting community sentences in 2008 77%


(Community Sentences /Suspended Sentence
Orders)

Proportion of offenders in P45 employment or receiving DWP benefits each week before prison recepti
(data underlying chart in Annex G)

Custodial sentences up to one year


Number of weeks after custody DWP benefits
-104 (Two years before prison reception) 42%
-103 42%
-102 42%
-101 42%
-100 42%
-99 42%
-98 42%
-97 42%
-96 43%
-95 43%
-94 43%
-93 43%
-92 43%
-91 43%
-90 43%
-89 43%
-88 43%
-87 43%
-86 43%
-85 43%
-84 43%
-83 43%
-82 43%
-81 43%
-80 43%
-79 43%
-78 43%
-77 43%
-76 43%
-75 43%
-74 43%
-73 43%
-72 43%
-71 43%
-70 43%
-69 43%
-68 44%
-67 44%
-66 44%
-65 44%
-64 44%
-63 44%
-62 44%
-61 44%
-60 44%
-59 44%
-58 44%
-57 44%
-56 45%
-55 45%
-54 45%
-53 45%
-52 45%
-51 45%
-50 45%
-49 45%
-48 45%
-47 45%
-46 45%
-45 45%
-44 45%
-43 45%
-42 45%
-41 46%
-40 46%
-39 46%
-38 46%
-37 46%
-36 46%
-35 46%
-34 46%
-33 46%
-32 46%
-31 46%
-30 46%
-29 46%
-28 46%
-27 46%
-26 47%
-25 47%
-24 47%
-23 47%
-22 47%
-21 47%
-20 47%
-19 47%
-18 47%
-17 47%
-16 47%
-15 47%
-14 47%
-13 48%
-12 48%
-11 48%
-10 48%
-9 48%
-8 48%
-7 48%
-6 48%
-5 48%
-4 47%
-3 47%
-2 46%
-1 44%
0 - Prison reception date 33%
0 - Prison release date 39%
1 52%
2 53%
3 54%
4 54%
5 54%
6 54%
7 54%
8 54%
9 53%
10 53%
11 53%
12 53%
13 53%
14 53%
15 52%
16 52%
17 52%
18 52%
19 52%
20 52%
21 52%
22 52%
23 52%
24 52%
25 52%
26 52%
27 52%
28 52%
29 52%
30 52%
31 52%
32 52%
33 52%
34 52%
35 52%
36 53%
37 53%
38 52%
39 53%
40 53%
41 53%
42 53%
43 53%
44 53%
45 53%
46 53%
47 53%
48 53%
49 53%
50 53%
51 53%
52 53%
53 53%
54 53%
55 53%
56 53%
57 53%
58 54%
59 54%
60 53%
61 54%
62 54%
63 54%
64 54%
65 54%
66 54%
67 54%
68 54%
69 54%
70 54%
71 54%
72 54%
73 54%
74 54%
75 54%
76 54%
77 54%
78 54%
79 54%
80 54%
81 54%
82 54%
83 54%
84 54%
85 54%
86 53%
87 53%
88 53%
89 53%
90 53%
91 53%
92 53%
93 53%
94 53%
95 53%
96 53%
97 53%
98 53%
99 53%
100 53%
101 53%
102 52%
103 53%
104 (Two years after prison release) 53%

Data source: MoJ / DWP / HMRC data share (2011)


[1]
This is a different sample to that used in the Propensity Score Matching. It is used here to give extra context
nders released from custody and offenders serving

Proportion of offenders in
P45 employment
26%
25%
25%
30%

ity sentences in 2008 who claimed benefits


g release / sentence date

Proportion of offenders
who were in P45
employment

30%
34%
31%

51%

fits each week before prison reception and after prison release

al sentences up to one year Custodial sentences greater than one year


P45 Employment DWP benefits P45 Employment
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 36% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 37% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 38% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 39% 18%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 39% 17%
15% 40% 17%
15% 40% 17%
15% 39% 17%
14% 39% 17%
15% 40% 17%
14% 39% 17%
14% 39% 17%
14% 39% 17%
14% 39% 17%
14% 39% 17%
14% 39% 16%
14% 39% 16%
14% 39% 16%
14% 39% 16%
14% 39% 16%
14% 39% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 16%
14% 38% 15%
14% 38% 15%
14% 38% 15%
14% 37% 15%
14% 37% 15%
13% 36% 15%
13% 36% 15%
13% 35% 15%
13% 34% 14%
13% 31% 14%
0% 23% 1%
1% 22% 4%
4% 50% 7%
5% 52% 7%
5% 52% 8%
5% 52% 8%
6% 52% 8%
6% 52% 9%
6% 51% 9%
6% 51% 9%
7% 51% 10%
7% 50% 10%
7% 50% 10%
7% 49% 10%
7% 49% 11%
7% 48% 11%
7% 48% 11%
8% 48% 11%
8% 47% 11%
8% 47% 11%
8% 47% 12%
8% 47% 12%
8% 47% 12%
8% 47% 12%
8% 47% 12%
8% 47% 12%
8% 46% 12%
8% 46% 12%
9% 46% 12%
9% 46% 12%
9% 45% 12%
9% 45% 12%
9% 45% 12%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
9% 45% 13%
10% 45% 13%
10% 45% 13%
10% 45% 13%
10% 45% 14%
10% 45% 14%
10% 45% 14%
10% 45% 14%
10% 45% 14%
10% 45% 14%
10% 45% 14%
10% 46% 14%
10% 46% 14%
10% 46% 14%
10% 46% 14%
10% 46% 14%
10% 46% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 45% 15%
11% 45% 15%
11% 45% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 45% 15%
11% 45% 15%
11% 46% 15%
11% 46% 15%
12% 45% 15%
12% 45% 16%
12% 45% 16%
12% 46% 16%
12% 45% 16%
12% 45% 16%
12% 46% 16%
12% 46% 16%
12% 46% 16%
12% 46% 16%
12% 46% 16%
13% 46% 16%
13% 46% 16%
13% 46% 16%
13% 46% 16%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
13% 45% 17%
14% 45% 17%
14% 44% 18%
14% 44% 18%
14% 44% 18%
14% 44% 18%
14% 44% 18%
14% 44% 18%

g. It is used here to give extra context to the main Employment and Re-offending analysis.