Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr
ISOE – Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt/Main
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main
1st Hamburg Workshop on Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy
Hamburg, 10.-11. March 2017
Original Title
Water use trade-offs: How integrated modelling can help
Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr
ISOE – Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt/Main
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main
1st Hamburg Workshop on Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy
Hamburg, 10.-11. March 2017
Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr
ISOE – Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt/Main
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main
1st Hamburg Workshop on Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy
Hamburg, 10.-11. March 2017
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 6
Integrated modelling
How to integrate knowledge from/of different
disciplines, sources, units, scales and temporal and spatial resolutions? How to capture peoples limited/filtered perception of their environment? How can uncertainty be taken into account?
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 7
Bayesian networks
combine graph theory and
probability theory directed acyclic graphical model represents conditional dependencies between a set of variables (Bayesian statistics) non-parametric method uncertain knowledge can be Probability that searching for a job is explicitly addressed the main motive for migration: combination of different types of P(job) = 43 % variables P(job | favourable conditions) = 27 % e.g. empirical data and expert knowledge P(job | unfavourable conditions) = 81 %
social and natural scientific data
Drees/Liehr Glob. Environ. Chang. 2015
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 8
Integrated modelling methods
Bayesian networks Agent-based models
are able to integrate different micro-level interactions result in
types of variables macro-level patterns uncertain knowledge is explicitly models of heterogeneous addressed population of agents and their interactions non-parametric method describe complex systems with non-linearities
But: Major challenge:
neither spatial nor temporal formalisation of behavioural dynamics rules?!
Software used for screenshots:
Bayesian Networks: Norsys 2017 Agent-based models: Wilensky 1999 Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 9 Modelling approach
Variable Source Size of households Social-empirical surveys (n = 460)
Education Social-empirical surveys (n = 460)
Neighbours behaviour Model (ABM)
Population density Census data Severity of drought Precipitation data (CHIRPS) Pipeline network (Mendelsohn et al. 2013)
Households characteristics
ABM BN
Households decisions 10
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees
First results
Model characteristics: cut-out with approx. 2000 agents/households (spatially explicit located according to population density, including population growth) empirical data basis (n=460) monthly time steps 140 25,000,000
120 20,000,000 100
15,000,000 80 mm
l/month 60 10,000,000
40 5,000,000 20
0 0
PTA TNE PTA BOT BOR
VEN CAN IMW UGT UIW SHW ETD OSH RAW precipitation
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 11
First results
140 7,000,000
120 6,000,000
100 5,000,000
80 4,000,000
l/month mm
60 3,000,000
40 2,000,000
20 1,000,000
0 0
precipitation PTA SHW RAW
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 12
Conclusion and Outlook
Modelling approach is able to capture annual variations of
water sources Assess influence of drivers and disentangle ecological and socio-economic drivers Finalisation and calibration Compare and validate with other measures (e.g. WaterGAP model)
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 13
Thank you for your attention!
Lukas Drees, Robert Ltkemeier, Stefan Liehr
Research Unit Water Resources and Land Use ISOE Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt/Main Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main Contact: drees@isoe.de
14
References
References and Credits
Drees, L., and Liehr, S. 2015. Using Bayesian belief networks to analyse social-ecological conditions for migration in the Sahel. Global Environmental Change, 35, 323339. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.003
Ltkemeier, R. and Liehr, S. 2015. Impact of drought on the inhabitants of the Cuvelai watershed: A qualitative exploration. In: Andreu, J. et al. (ed.): Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing., Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing Proceedings of the international Conference on Drought: Research an Science-Policy Interfacing, Valencia, Spain 10-13 March 2015. London: Taylor & Francis Group, 41-48
Ltkemeier, R., Stein, L., Drees, L. and Liehr S. Uncertainty of rainfall products: impact on modelling household nutrition from rain-fed farming in Southern Africa. (in preparation)
Niang, I., O.C. Ruppel, M.A. Abdrabo, A. Essel, C. Lennard, J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199-1265.
Mendelsohn, J., Jarvis, A. and Robertson, T., 2013. A profile and atlas of the Cuvelai-Etosha basin. RAISON.
Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
Credits (for used icons all from Noun Project):
computer model created by Aygibe Aya, cow created by misirlou, creek by Dan Hetteix, dead plant created by Gemma Garner, drinking glass created by Luis Prado, drought created by Hayashi Fumihiro, empty glass created by Amanda Wray, grain created by Creative Stall, integration created by Gregor renar, line graph created by Lee, sowing created by Sarah JOY, tap water created by Francesco Ameglio, trade-off hands created by Alfredo Hernandez, watering can created by Yohann Berger, well created by Yorlmar Campos, window created by artworkbean
Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees 15
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