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Environment
Semi-arid climate
Strong seasonality
High groundwater salinity
Society
1.2 mio people (80% rural)
Subsistence economy
Tap water system in Namibia
Natural Societal
structures & structures &
processes processes
Variable Source
Size of households Social-empirical surveys (n = 460)
Households characteristics
ABM
BN
Households decisions 10
Model characteristics:
cut-out with approx. 2000 agents/households (spatially explicit located
according to population density, including population growth)
empirical data basis (n=460)
monthly time steps
140 25,000,000
120
20,000,000
100
15,000,000
80
mm
l/month
60
10,000,000
40
5,000,000
20
0 0
140 7,000,000
120 6,000,000
100 5,000,000
80 4,000,000
l/month
mm
60 3,000,000
40 2,000,000
20 1,000,000
0 0
14
References
Drees, L., and Liehr, S. 2015. Using Bayesian belief networks to analyse social-ecological conditions for migration in the Sahel. Global
Environmental Change, 35, 323339. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.003
Ltkemeier, R. and Liehr, S. 2015. Impact of drought on the inhabitants of the Cuvelai watershed: A qualitative exploration. In: Andreu, J.
et al. (ed.): Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing., Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing Proceedings of the
international Conference on Drought: Research an Science-Policy Interfacing, Valencia, Spain 10-13 March 2015. London: Taylor &
Francis Group, 41-48
Ltkemeier, R., Stein, L., Drees, L. and Liehr S. Uncertainty of rainfall products: impact on modelling household nutrition from rain-fed
farming in Southern Africa. (in preparation)
Niang, I., O.C. Ruppel, M.A. Abdrabo, A. Essel, C. Lennard, J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: Climate Change 2014:
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M.
Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199-1265.
Mendelsohn, J., Jarvis, A. and Robertson, T., 2013. A profile and atlas of the Cuvelai-Etosha basin. RAISON.
Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling,
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.