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JPM, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, December 2011

"it does not last for ever"
(037)

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1-400 1750 2100
Az elmult felezer ev soran a vilagtortenelemben eloszor tett
kiserletet a vilag egyik civilizacioja, a Nyugat, ana, hogy a sajat
letertelmezesi elveit, es arra epiilo gyakorlatat a vilagra
kenyszeritve, univerzalis civilizaciot hozzon letre. Bar a kiserlet
latszolag sikeres, am a tektonikai melysegu fesziiltsegek egyre
nyilvanvalobba teszik: ez egy vegzetes optikai csalodas. Reszben
azert, mert az emberi vilagot nem lehet egyseges univerzalis
civilizaciova szervezni, masreszt pecug a nyugatias
letszervezodesi elvek onmagukban is a semmibe vezetnek
A Nyugat azonban nem volt kepes egyseges vilagbirodalomkent
fellepni a vilag egeszevel szemben, hanem evszazadonkent egy
nyugati nemzetallam latta el a vilagbirodalmi funkciokat.
Hatszaz ev alatt hat birodalom emelkedett fei es hullott ala
De lei lesz a hetedik birodalom, lesz-e egyaltalan?
According to the IMF, 6l% of allocated foreign
exchange reserve holdings are claimed in US
, a value equaling $11.9 trillion. The yen
dollars
and pound each have about a 4% share. The
Australian and Canadian dollars both represent
less than 2% of global holdings, and the euro’s
share is about 24.5%, down from a record 28% in
2009. In a Central Banldng publication released
on June 23rd, the euro lost 1% compared to a year
earlier according to the 62% of banks surveyed.
A vilag devizatartalekanak penznemenkenti megoszlasa
(201 6. utolso negyedev, %)
egyeb m
frank
•••
juan
ausztral dollar
kanadai dollar
jen

font
euro
dollar

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Forras: IMF, Portfolio
1967-74
•1967-ben De Gaulle hat-hetezer tonna aranyat kerne •••

•1968-banazonbanegy pusztito polgarhaborutkap ••••

1969-ben keptelen kezelni a valsagot, ezert lemond ••••

•1970 novembereben pedig tavozik az elok sorabol ••••
1971-ben aztan Nixon elnok felfuggeszti a dollar
aranyra valo 35 dollaros fix arfolyamon valo atvaltasat •• •

•1972-ben titkos egyezseg az USA es Szaud Arabia
kozott arrol, hogy koolajat csak dollarert lehet eladni..
1973-ban a koolaj ara hatszorosara emelkedik, es ez
atszivja Europabol a gigantikus dollartomeget USA-ba
Most: Traded Currencies By Value (2016)

United States Dollar 87.696
Euro 31.396
] Japanese Yen 21.696

British pound 12.896
Australian Dollar 6.996

1*1 Canadian Dollar S.196
C 3 Swiss Franc

Chinese Yuan
|
Mexican Peso 2.296
Swedish Krona j 2.296
New Zealand Dollar |2.196
Singapore Dollar ! 1.896
Hong Kong Dollar |1.796
:IZ Norwegian Krone | 1.796
South Korean Won|1.696
Turkish Lira 1.496
Indian Rupee | 1.196
Russian Ruble 1.196
Brazilian Real |1.096
§ZZ South African Rand 1.096

096 1096 2096 3096 4096 S096 6096 7096 8096 9096 10096
96 Daily Share
Source: Bank for international Settlements (BIS)

•The total sum is 20096 because each currency trade always involves a currency pair.
Mexican violence. American drugs
The Sharia in the West

Economist Rethinking Stalin and Hitler
The public-sector pensions scandal
m uv» 1M Ml« How light at night might make you fat

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INSIDE THIS WEEK: A SPECIAL REPORT ON HONG KONG
Britain's n prime minister
The The EU summit's rotten outcome

Eco no m1st Crackdown in Iran
The drugs industry goes niche
The Pope ora Jesus

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Birodalmi agonia
•Amerika kettos szerkezetu, van egy nemzetallam Amerika
es felette a szimbolikus terben egy birodalmi Amerika. Am
koltsegvetes csak egy van, a nemzetallam Amerikae, es
ebben kell bele szoritani a birodalom kiadasait is. A
birodalom harom fo pillerje a globalis penzhatalom, a
planetaris katonai ero, es az „amerikai alom” mitologiajara
epiild globalis mediarendszer. A hanyatlo birodalom
azonban a hetvenes evek ota egyre inkabb sorsara hagyja e
„kirakat” Amerika foszereplojet az addig irigyelt
kdzeposztalyt, ami most polgarhaborus helyzet fele sodorja
a nemzetallam Amerikat. Donald Trump elndksege ezt a
helyzetet jeleniti meg. Make America Great Again
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ch< lWinmi Hernia
The Empire's propaganda machine
•Trump can already be credited with an immense
achievement: his campaign has forced the US
corporate media to show its true face - the face of an
evil, lying? morally corrupt propaganda
machine. The American people by their vote
have rewarded their media with a gigantic
“f*ckyou!” - a vote of no-confidence and total
rejection which will forever demolish the credibility
of the Empire s propaganda machine.
The founding myths of the US Empire are crashing down
Likewise, the election of Trump has already
proved that the US media is a prostitute and
that the majority of the American people hate
their ruling class. Again, this is a direct blow
to the credibility and legitimacy of the entire
socio-political order. The founding
myths of the US Empire are crashing
down and what remains is a system
which can only rule by force.
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Picking win rging markets

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Increase in market value since
2016 US presidential election

Nov. 8, 2016-Feb. 14, 2017
Bank of America $72 bn
JP Morgan 70
Wells Fargo 62
Citigroup 28
Goldman Sachs 27
Morgan Stanley 21
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If you want to understand the Trump phenomenon, dig up the
much more detailed county map. Here's how the nation voted
county by county in the 2012 election , red is Republican. Blue
islands in an ocean of red. The cities are less than 4 percent of the
land mass, but 62 percent of the population and easily 99 percent
of the popular culture. Our movies, shows, songs, and news all
radiate out from those blue islands.
And if you live in the red, that fucking sucks.

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The ever-widening wage gap
The chart below shows the growing change since 1973 to wages among men at the
top and middle of the earnings distribution.

50th percentile 95th percentile Upper caste of technocrats,
professionals, state Nomenklatura

51.4%
50

40

30

20

10
0.0%
0 —
-4.6%
1973 2015
everyone else
Source: Economic Policy Institute
THE WASHINGTON POST
U.S Productivity and Real Hourly Compensation, 1948-2013

300%

243.1%
250%

200%

Productivity
150%
108.9%

100%

50% Hourly compensation

0%
1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
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Percentage of total net household wealth 1917
Selected years, held by: top 0.1 top 0.1 - 1.0 -
top 1.0 10.0 bottom 90.0
0 20 40 50 60 80 100
I

1917: In the 1910s Americans worried that the massive wealth of the very rich was
undermining economic opportunity. The government passed progressive income and
estate taxes to address the problem

1913-2012, held by:
40
bottom 90.0
30

20
top 0.1

10

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1910 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 12
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INEQUALITY
AMEPr
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What Americans
THINK
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i •THE MIDDLE CLASS*

THE POOR
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I o% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
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THE WEALTHY* _
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9

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Distribution
92% Choose as MIDDLE TOP 20%
IDEA 20%

BOTTOM 20% SECOND 20% MIDDLE 20% FOURTH 20% TOP 20%
Rising morbidity and morlality in nudlile among white
non Hispanic Americans in Ihe 2lsl century
Anne Case and Angus Deaton
•This paper documents a marked increase in the all¬
cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic
men and women in the United States between 1999
and 2013. This change reversed decades of progress in
mortality and was unique to the United States; no
other rich countryside a similar turnaround. The
midlife mortality reversal was confined to white non- JKC:
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[
Hispanics; black non-Hispanics and Hispanics at 1
midlife, and those aged 65 and above in every racial
and ethnic group, continued to see mortality rates
fall. This increase for whites was largely accounted for
by increasing death rates from drug and alcohol
poisonings, suicide, liver diseases and cirrhosis.
poisonings, suicide, liver diseases and cirrhosis.
The study was based on income data derived from 1.4
billion tax records between 1999 and 2014 of
individuals aged 40 to 76, and death records obtained
from the Social Security Administration. It found that
men in the top one percent had an expected age of
death of 87.3, compared to 72.7 years for the poorest
one percent. The richest women on average lived 88.9
years, while the poorest lived only 78.8 years. "Men in
the bottom 1 percent of the income distribution at the

m
age of 40 years in the United States," the study noted,”
have life expectancies similar to the
mean life expectancy of 40-year-old
men in Sudan and Pakistan.” us men in the
top one percent of income distribution have "higher
life expectancies than the mean life expectancy for
men in all countries at age 40 years” the study found...
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(ad|ustod for Inflotiori and PPP-ad|ustod for
rylnx Honor.
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by tlic» author
Data source: Honlth expenditure from Iho
OECO: Llfa expectancy from tho World Bank nnd moro vlnunll/ntlonn on thin topic.
t flo row dntn
at OurWbrldlnDatn.org. Thoro you find
Tha Interactive data visualization la available
GDP-aranyos egeszsegiigyi kiadasok oo<) ho es oio-ben
az OECD-orszagokban
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Forras: OECD Health Data 2012, Portfolio Jxu
2008-as es 2009-es adatok
* * 201o-es es 2011-es adatok
OECD egeszsegiigyipontszam(i-io)
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Forras: OECD Regional Well-Being Indicators Sept 2014,Portfolio
F
T3 709*5 —
E. Top 59b of spenders account for almost half of spending ($623 billion)
S3 6CKV0 —
o
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509*5 —
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34.8
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309*5 — Total Rcrmnal Health Care Spending
-
SI.259 Trillion
$36 Billion $1,223 Billion
209*5 — 18.8,

10.4
109*5 —
5.6
2.9
0.1 0.4 1.3 95 i 99
0.0
09*5
1 5.4 T T T 1
o io 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 TOO
Percent of Civilian Non-lnstitutionalized Population Ordered by Health Care Spending
Soinxt Schoonman. Ji*o A. "Tho concentration of health care sponcfcng ' NIHCM Foundation Data Brlel. National Institute of Moaltti Care Management.
Washington. DC (?012). (Formatted by wwwCX»V\*x1dlnData org)
400 Lung cancer 30
France 25
Germany 350 Suicide
20
300 Liver diseases & cirrhosis
15
Canada 10
250
Sweden Diabetes
US Hispanics
5
200

1999 2001 03 05 07 09 11
j

13
* 1999 2001 03 05 07 09 11 13
0

Source: "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans
in the 21st century", by Anne Case and Angus Deaton * Drug-related overdoses, etc.

:onomist.com
48% rise in death rate
20

0'

•20

40

•60

•80
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
a «
Homicides by firearms per 1million people in selected developed countries in 2012

United States 29.7
Switzerland E3 7.7
Belgium II 6.8
Luxembourg 6.2
Canada M 5.1
Ireland II 4.8
Finland +” 4.5
Sweden SS 4.1
Netherlands 3.3
Denmark Z 2.7
Austria 2.2
Germany 1.9
New Zealand ifl 1.6
Australia 1.4

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estatistacharts
Sources: UNODC, Small Arms
Survey, via The Guardian Thc» INDEPENDENT statista
Incarcerated Americans
2,000.000 -- 1920-2006

Sources:
1,500,000-- Justice Policy Institute Report: The Punishing Decade,
& U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin
-
NCJ 219416 Prisoners in 2006
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1,000,000

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Global Debt Has Increased By $57 Trillion Since 2007
Global stock of outstanding debt, by type (in trillion U.S. dollars)
Household Corporate Government Financial

Q4 2000 22 87

+57 trillion

Q4 2007 5j 33 142

Q2 2014 5W 58 199

©CD© Source: McKinsey Global Institute Forbes statista a
Moralltc
•Ha az elmult evszazadok tortenelmi logikaja folytatodik,
akkor egy-ket evtizeden beliil jon a hetedik birodalom szaz
eve. De johet egy szazeves haboru is, vagy egy olyan
olanetaris egyezseg-rendszer, ami felvaltja az eddigi
Dirodalmi logikat, sot fokozatosan lebontja a Nyugat
kenyszen'td hatalman alapulo univerzalis civilizacio-epites
zsakutcas kiserletet. Az amerikai nemzetallam es rajta
keresztiil a vilag igen sulyos vaisaggai terhes, kritikus
evtizedek ele nez. A rejtett globalis hatalmi szuper-
strukturan beliili tektonikus fesziiltsegek kezelesenek
eselye kizarolag olyan narrativara epulhet, ami kepes
mindezt elbeszelni. Az elmondottak ezt probaltak segiteni.