MINDAVIEWS

MARGINALIA: China visit as bandwagoning?

Mansoor L. Limba on October 16, 2016

MAKATI CITY (MindaNews /16 October) Yesterday morning, apart from sitting as a
mentor to a thesis about faith-based diplomacy, I was also invited as a panelist to a thesis
defense about strategic bandwagoning in International Relations (IR).

What is bandwagoning?

Though originally coined by Quincy Wright in his book A Study of War published during
the Second World War (1942), the concept of bandwagoning in IR has been expounded and
popularized by structural realisms preeminent figure, Kenneth Waltz, in his influential work
Theory of International Politics (1979).

In a self-help environment of international anarchy with no superior authority over its units
(states), they seek their own preservation and survival, in the least, and global domination, at
most. This is achieved either through internal balancing (in the form of enhancing economic
and military prowess, for instance) or through external balancing (in the form of forging
alliances).

When facing a considerable external threat, states that seek alliances may balance or
bandwagon, structural realists would inform us. Balancing means to ally with others against
the prevailing threat. According to the structural realist John Mersheimer, states prefer to
balance for two reasons: (1) to curb a potential hegemon before it
becomes too strong, and (2) to join the weaker side to increase the
likelihood that the new member will be influential within the alliance.

According to a realist prediction, states will abandon balancing and opt to bandwagon only
when balancing is impossible or too difficult for them to do for one reason or another. As a
strategy employed by weak states, bandwagoning is chosen when such states decide that the
cost of opposing a stronger power exceeds the benefits. Thucydides oft-quoted dictum that
the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must dictates that a weaker state
should align itself with a stronger enemy state because the latter can take what it wants by
force anyway. To induce a weaker rival state to become an ally, the stronger state may offer
various forms of enticement such as territorial gain, trade agreement, investment opportunity,
infrastructure project, and military protection, among many others.

As I went home after the said thesis defense session, I passed by a newsstand and grabbed a
copy of a newspaper. The said national daily carries this headline: Broader China ties seen.
As I read the news story, I have learned that notwithstanding an ongoing dispute over
territorial claims in the South China Sea, the Philippines and China are expected to sign
several cooperation agreements on trade, investment, tourism, people-to-people exchanges,
and private business deals during President Dutertes state visit to China on October 18 to 22.

It is quite revealing that during his speech in Lamitan, Basilan last week (October 10), the
Commander-in-Chief told his audience of Agrarian Reform beneficiaries, thus: May duda
ako na okey tayo sa kanila. Huwag na muna natin pakialaman yang Scarborough kasi hindi
natin kaya. Magalit man tayo, hangin lang. (I think we are okay to them (China). Lets not

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mind the Scarborough [Shoal] for a while because we are not capable. Even if we get mad, it
is to no avail.)

Do this upcoming state visit to China and pronouncement in Basilan herald a strategic shift to
bandwagoning?

If they do, then Waltz would remind us that bandwagoning is not necessarily identical with
independent foreign policy, because of the issue of commitment, intention and deception on
the part of the stronger power.

[MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. Mansoor L. Limba, PhD in International

Relations, is a writer, educator, blogger, chess trainer, and translator (from Persian into
English and Filipino) with tens of written and translation works to his credit on such subjects
as international politics, history, political philosophy, intra-faith and interfaith relations,
cultural heritage, Islamic finance, jurisprudence (fiqh), theology (ilm al-kalam), Quranic
sciences and exegesis (tafsir), hadith, ethics, and mysticism. He can be reached at
mlimba@diplomats.com, or http://www.mlimba.com and http://www.muslimandmoney.com.]