You are on page 1of 16

Contents

World supply-demand outlook 1
Crop monitor 3
Policy developments 6
International prices 8
Futures markets 10
Market indicators 11
Monthly US ethanol update 13
Fertilizer outlook 14
Explanatory notes 15

M ARKET
M ONITO R
No. 45 – February 2017

Roundup Markets at a glance
Despite occasional and short-lived price upswings in
international markets, prompted mostly by weather From previous From previous
factors, record to near-record production combined with forecast season
expectations of comfortable stock levels have paved the
Wheat
way for one of the least turbulent seasons in nearly a
decade for all four AMIS crops. While weather will remain Maize
an important factor impacting the size of crops to be
harvested in 2017/18, price prospects, and hence returns, Rice
will be critical for planting decisions. Volatile currency
Soybeans
markets and emerging uncertainties confronting trade
flows are likely to have a strong bearing on market Easing Neutral Tightening
developments in the coming months and into the next
season.

The Market Monitor is a product of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS). It covers the international markets for wheat, maize, rice and
soybeans, giving a synopsis of major market developments and the policy and other market drivers behind them. The analysis is a collective assessment
of the market situation and outlook by the eleven international organizations and entities that form the AMIS Secretariat.
Visit us at: www.amis-outlook.org

go to: http://statistics. f'cast for the fourth year in a row. f'cast est .amis-outlook. US D A IG C RICE 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 Utilization in 2016/17 downscaled on reduced industrial and (milled) est. To review and compare data. 8-Dec 2-Feb 12-Jan 19-Jan  Utilization in 2016/17 up 3. f'cast weather. Supply 359 379 376 392 415 353 368  Trade in 2016/17 (Oct/Sep) virtually untouched. mostly reflecting less Stocks 171 171 170 117 119 118 118 pronounced build-ups in China and the US. reported in the supply/demand commentaries are calculated based on unrounded figures.A M IS US D A IG C MAIZE 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 in the US. confirming a 3 Utilization 320 335 334 316 330 319 333 percent increase from 2015/16.with gains in India and in million tonnes Brazil only partially offsetting downward corrections in the US F A O .  Trade prospects in 2016/17 (July/June) improved further on Utilization 715 734 736 712 740 720 738 bigger anticipated imports by Brazil and India. with drops in China Production 315 336 333 314 338 316 334 and Argentina only in part compensated by gains in Brazil. For more information see the last page of this report. i FAO-AMIS monthly forecast For latest revisions to FAO-AMIS monthly forecasts for 2016/17 see next page. in absolute or percentage terms. across the three main sources.1 No.A M IS in million tonnes downward adjustments for China. Output in 2016 would be the second highest on est.org/data/index.A M IS US D A IG C Australia and Russia.  Stocks (ending in 2017) adjusted upward.9 43. in spite of F A O .45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor World supply-demand outlook  Wheat production estimate for 2016 raised 9 million tonnes in million tonnes since December. as Trade 140 137 138 121 148 136 135 reduced imports in China. f'cast est .7 40. Nigeria.  Soybean 2016/17 production reduced. f'cast est.  Maize production estimate for 2016 lifted. more than offset higher purchases by numerous countries in Africa.3 percent growth in 2016/17. Stocks 226 239 245 240 253 221 235  Stocks (ending in 2017) raised by 6 million tonnes. mostly Production 1006 1027 1033 961 1038 972 1045 driven by strong demand for animal feed and industrial use. more than offsetting a downward revision F A O . with cuts in Stocks 43 43 43 77 82 34 35 Argentina and the US offsetting an upward correction for China. World wheat output to set a new record WHEAT 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 est. with higher anticipated Supply 666 670 667 587 597 591 600 imports by China. following adverse 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 est. the Philippines and Sri Lanka Utilization 495 501 500 471 478 473 482 supporting a partial y/y recovery. All changes.1 percent from 2015/16. largely on upward in million tonnes adjustments in China. f'cast est f'cast est.7 42. . Export forecast Trade 168 168 171 173 178 164 168 for Australia lifted sharply since December. 8-Dec 2-Feb 12-Jan 19-Jan  Utilization pointing to a 2. Supply 1230 1244 1250 1170 1248 1179 1253 especially in China and the US.html#COMPARE Estimates and forecasts may differ across sources for many reasons. Production 735 749 758 735 753 736 752 underpinned by a strong growth in feed use in light of large Supply 947 976 984 953 993 941 973 supplies of low-quality wheat this season. mostly on larger-than-expected harvests in F A O .A M IS US D A IG C SOYBEANS 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 2 0 15 / 16 2 0 16 / 17 and a sharply lower forecast in Argentina. Utilization 1007 1030 1031 960 1027 970 1028  Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) remaining below 2015/16. f'cast feed use prospects in Asia. Rice production in 2016 confirmed at a new record. mostly reflecting the latest upward adjustments to 2016 production estimates in several countries. 8-Dec 2-Feb 12-Jan 19-Jan Production 492 499 496 472 480 472 482 Trade in calendar 2017 raised slightly.8 39 41 Stocks (ending in 2017) lowered. including different methodologies. largely on lower-than- anticipated drawdowns in China and Ukraine. f'cast est. Trade 41. the US and Viet Nam.2 39. 8-Dec 2-Feb 12-Jan 19-Jan  Utilization in 2016/17 lowered somewhat. to a new record. Trade 135 139 139 132 140 134 137  Stocks forecast (2016/17 carryout) trimmed slightly. f'cast record. the EU and several countries in Stocks 217 212 216 210 221 209 225 Central America. f'cast est . f'cast est . by country and commodity.

. . . . 37 37 . 272 . . . . . . . . . . 1250 150 -218 Canada . 60 . . . . . . . - Indonesia . . . .2 No. . 200 . - Russian Fed. - South Africa . - Viet Nam . 300 23 . . . - RICE SOYBEANS P ro duc t io n Im po rt s Ut iliza t io n E xpo rt s Sto cks P ro duc t io n Im po rt s Ut iliza t io n E xpo rt s Sto cks WORLD -2336 319 -966 228 -539 -2994 237 -1657 367 -105 Total AMIS -2384 165 -994 230 -672 -2544 137 -1341 207 -126 Argentina . -306 -1470 -136 27 . . -10 100 . . . -30 . . . . . . 355 Indonesia . - China Mainland . -100 . . . of Korea . . . . 373 US . 200 900 . - Nigeria . . . . . . . . . 500 . . 280 200 . . 100 -10 -138 97 . 198 . . . . . . . 30 . . . . . . . . - Saudi Arabia . . . -1633 Viet Nam -387 -50 61 . - Philippines . . . . . . 130 Japan . -915 . -50 . -93 110 113 US -337 -25 -31 . . 10 Russian Fed. . . 140 100 10 30 Turkey . -900 . - Canada 198 . . 100 -34 -100 34 1223 . -680 -600 37 -80 EU -20 . -100 200 -90 China Mainland -1484 250 -634 30 -500 . . . -35 -15 . 100 400 -200 100 . - South Africa 142 . . . . . 100 . . -500 -500 . . . . - India . -200 Turkey 100 . . . -25 25 . - Philippines -105 140 -195 . 150 -50 . 20 . -1400 . . . . . . . . . - Thailand . . . . -20 . 40 Saudi Arabia . . . . 50 40 . - Mexico . . . . -50 -15 . . 10 . . -38 . . . - Mexico . . -30 -10 . . . . . . . - Australia 4564 . 1300 -500 . . . . . . . . . - Kazakhstan . 1900 Egypt . -5 . . . . -100 Ukraine -4 -5 -14 . . . 500 500 . 42 50 50 . 900 . . . . . - Brazil 113 . 150 . . -50 . . -50 .45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Summary of revisions to FAO-AMIS monthly forecasts for 2016/17 in thousand tonnes WHEAT MAIZE P ro duc t io n Im po rt s Ut iliza t io n E xpo rt s Sto cks P ro duc t io n Im po rt s Ut iliza t io n E xpo rt s Sto cks WORLD 6622 -1425 -344 2755 2477 1399 -200 209 -15 1150 Total AMIS 6417 -1400 -198 2550 2464 813 -200 -177 0 628 Argentina . -37 . -30 . . . . -50 -200 250 . . . . - Brazil . - Nigeria . . -48 . . - EU . 329 169 . . . . . . -33 . - Japan . . . 3 . . 100 Ukraine . . . . . -900 -900 . . . - Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . - Rep. . . . . . . - Kazakhstan . . . - Rep. . -3400 280 -2020 -300 -500 Australia . of Korea . . -5 . . . . - India . . . -27 . . . 855 . . - Egypt . 500 300 500 . . . . . 500 2000 1564 . . .

In the northern hemisphere. Only crops that are in other-than-favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol. Conditions at a glance Wheat . production areas with beneficial rains throughout the Planting of the dry season crop has begun in Viet Nam season and a bumper crop has been harvested.In the southern hemisphere.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Crop monitor Crop conditions in AMIS countries (as of 28 January) Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of 28 January. winter wheat is in Rice – The growing season of main crops is mostly over dormancy in most countries under generally favourable in the marjority of Southeast Asia. . rice. In the southern hemisphere. In Indonesia. and late planted crops owing to excessive rainfall in the central regions and dry conditions in the south. The Rabi crop in India conditions. In Argentina.In the northern hemisphere. and South Africa some areas. conditions are in Brazil are favourable and harvesting has already started in generally favorable in Brazil. and the Philippines under mixed conditions. In the southern hemisphere. maize. conditions are mixed for both early with only minor areas of dry or wet conditions. Australia experienced main crops has begun with concerns over final yields due exceptionally good weather conditions over large to a lack of sunlight during critical growing stages. harvest of the early planted and most of Argentina. and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. growing conditions of season. Maize . maize is mostly out Soybeans .3 No. Argentina. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat. harvest is almost and the dry season crop in Thailand are in favourable complete under favourable conditions in South Africa conditions.

In Australia. reduced yields occurred in some main producing areas. winter wheat is dormant and crop is being harvested under favourable conditions with under favourable conditions and planted area is down. harvest is nearing completion under generally In the EU. overall conditions are favourable for the dormant favourable conditions. Harvest has begun in the south wheat is in the jointing stage under generally favourable and planting has started for the summer planted crop conditions. In the Russian Federation and Ukraine. In Mexico. planting is conditions are favourable with adequate snow cover almost complete under mixed conditions due to excess providing protection from low temperatures.4 No. however reductions were offset by recent expansions of wheat growing areas further north. In Argentina. an average growing conditions throught the season including good to slightly above average yield is expected over both the rainfall that began early in the season and continued through eastern and western maize production regions owing to critical growing stages. rainfall causing flooding in some areas and a lack of harvest is complete with a bumper crop owing to excellent rainfall in southern regions. In the US. In South Africa. complete under generally favourable conditions. In a larger crop than last year expected owing to a mix of Canada. In Brazil. yield increases. winter wheat is under favourable conditions with a factors including increased planted area. harvest is all but favourable weather conditions. under generally favourable conditions with the exception though there are some concerns due to excessive rain in of the northeast region (a relatively minor production parts of the Southwestern growing region.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Wheat Maize In India. In Argentina. conditions for winter wheat are generally favourable. In as well as less crop damage. In India. the spring-summer winter wheat crop. winter region) due to dryness. . minor area currently monitored for winter kill in Alberta. under favourable conditions. the spring crop is China.

southern regions during planting has caused a reduction of sowing has begun in the south for dry season rice under planted area and has impacted the conditions of late less than favourable conditions due to salinization. In planted crops. The findings and conclusions in this joint multiagency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts. ASEAN+3 & Asia RiCE). In the Philippines. In Viet Nam. the Rabi crop is entering the reproductive stage In Brazil. USGS – FEWS NET. More detailed information on the GEOGLAM crop assessments is available at www. published 2 February 2017 and eastern regions. dry season rice is in the Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS planting to early vegetative stages under generally countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Early favourable conditions with the exceptions of the central Warning Crop Monitor. Asia Rice Countries (AFSIS. INTA). Australia (ABARES & CSIRO). conditions are favourable with planting completed in the south. In Brazil. International (CIMMYT. USDA (FAS. Russian Federation (IKI). In the central lack of sunlight during critical growing stages. IFPRI & IRRI). spring and winter wheat). with the main producing countries (90 percent of production) shown individually and the remaining 10 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. In Indonesia.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Rice Soybeans In India. which is the main producing region. USA (NASA. EU (EC JRC MARS). conditions are crops has begun with concerns over final yields due to a mixed for both early and late planted crops. Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners (in alphabetical order): Argentina (Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Brazil (CONAB & INPE). Viet nam (VAST & VIMHE-MARD). Thailand.org . Planted area is up compared to last year owing to adequate irrigation water and rainfall. i Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). harvest of the early planted main good growing conditions. The late vegetative through to reproductive crop growth stages are generally the most sensitive periods for crop development. Japan (JAXA). FAO. Thailand (GISTDA & OAE). Indonesia (LAPAN & MOA). South Africa (ARC & GeoTerraImage & SANSA). and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts. Sections within each country are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country and accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.5 No. China (CAS). Mexico (SIAP). Canada (AAFC). conditions are favourable and harvest has started under generally favourable conditions. UMD. A lack of rainfall in the unseasonable precipitation from La Niña.geoglam-crop-monitor.e. Ukraine (NASU-NSAU & UHMC). with spot dryness in for the short cycle crops in a number of areas following the south. In Argentina. The planting regions excess rainfall is causing flooding and has caused of wet season rice started earlier than usual due to losses of crops in low lying areas. NASS)). where typhoon Nock-Ten caused some crop damage. dry season rice is in the tillering stage under favourable conditions with an increase in planted area compared to last year owing to sufficient rainfall and irrigation water.

96-E/2016). Argentina issued Decree 1343/2016.7) per tonne in November 2016.  On 19 January 2017.7 percent. maize. early payments were made to grain other animal feed crops. distortions affecting the production and Pakistan (56. . starting in 2018.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Policy developments Wheat to five GMO (genetically modified organism) varieties of US maize. up from 10 and 10. and soybeans) as well as biofuels. According to the 10 percent import duty on wheat on 8 December Ministry of Commerce. Soybeans Maize  On 2 January 2017. and thus eliminate government efforts to reduce rice growing areas government subsidies.72 billion). livestock and aquaculture products. Furthermore. the National Food Authority between 2013 and 2015. the Permanent Secretary of the purchase the domestic wheat crop at international Minister of Commerce in Thailand stated that prices in the coming season. the These duties will remain in place for five years. while  Faced with high domestic prices. would continue in 2017 under the overall management of the Ministry of Agriculture. which Rice suspends several mandatory import and marketing requirements that were imposed on wheat exporters  On 14 December 2016. Egypt announced on 5 January 2017 that it would  On 9 January 2017. in early 2016.7 percent. South Africa re-opened the subsidies through specified agencies to eligible application process for import permits with respect crops. countervailing duties were set between  In order to improve the efficiency of delivery and 11. Thailand (284.8 percent to a purchase inputs at preferential interest rates. on 26 January 2017.0 million tonnes) period. with immediate effect for an unspecified stocks (currently holding some 8. enabling producers to distillers dried grains (DDGs) from 33.org/policy/ The AMIS Policy database gathers information on trade measures and domestic measures related to the four AMIS crops (wheat. pounds (USD 158. the Minister of Agriculture of soybean meal exports.2 and 53. the country's president announced a 20 percent increase  On 11 January 2017. would be resumed in the first quarter of 2017. i AMIS Policy database Visit the AMIS Policy database at: http://statistics. starting in 2015.020 tonnes) under WTO-bound quota access (805. sales of rice from public 2016. which outlines a plan to reduce the 30  On 29 November 2016. across commodities and across policies for selected periods of time.5 percentage point reductions will be insect-resistent genetically-treated maize (Resolution applied on a monthly basis. the Ministry of Commerce in in subsidized agricultural credit facilities to 12 billion China further increased anti-dumping duties on US real (USD 3.140 tonnes). India removed the export growth would be promoted.780 tonnes) commercialization of wheat and wheat products. to address the Subsidy to the Rural Insurance Premium contracted persistent oversupply of maize. China announced plans to cut a further 667 000 hectares of maize plantations in the North and Across the board Southwest regions in the course of 2017. 6 No. the policy seeks to correct the market 641.080 tonnes of rice from India (6. Argentina announced the release of new varieties of To this effect. At the same time.200 tonnes. monitoring of farm support. on 17 January 2017. inspection procedures for wheat imported from Argentina. level ranging between 42. These reforms come as part producers on 30 December 2016 as part of the of continuous efforts. 0. while encouraging farmers to switch production towards  In Brazil. Mexico notified the WTO of the Government stocks were last released in August introduction of new phytosanitary requirements and 2016. Effective from 13 January in the Philippines approved the importation of 2017. The design of this database allows comparisons across countries.amis-outlook. and Viet Nam (294.140 tonnes). subject to a 35  After setting the procurement price at 300 Egyptian percent import duty). rice. Identical reductions will be applied to the 27 percent charge currently imposed on soybean oil and  In December 2016.  On 10 January 2017.2 and 12 percent. Ministry of Finance of China issued new guidelines regarding the channelling of agricultural insurance  On 5 December 2016. the Ministry of Production of Argentina issued Resolution 24-E/2017. the Ministry of Agriculture in percent soybean export tax to 18 percent by 2019.

National Energy Administration. as set out by the  On 3 January 2017. respectively. the US filed a complaint with streamlined the import procedures applicable to the WTO alleging that China maintained a number of grains.  In China. On 14 December vegetables. maize and allocated based on climate and soil conditions soybeans) as of 27 May 2017 for a five-year duration. the and maize.7 No. These subsidies will be GM (genetically modified) crops (rice. The Commission. Indonesia approved France's proposed a major expansion of maize-based ethanol food safety testing procedures with regards to production facilities in order to benefit from export of grains (wheat and barley). of new maximum pesticides residue levels for various crops. the European release of GMOs.e. Sixteen AMIS participating countries European Commission and Japan notified the WTO reserved their third-party rights. improve August 2017. particularly as regards soybeans. on 25 January 2017. Fishery and Food in Mexico notified the WTO of its plans to introduce  In response to the recommendations and rulings new assessment criteria governing the experimental issued by the WTO in October 2016. production to 4 million tonnes by the end of the current five-year plan in 2020. the National Agriculture Project. will be eligible prohibited the cultivation. Notably. from Argentina and Indonesia (Official Journal 2016/C 476/04). administration. and subject to labelling agricultural export consignments are GMO-free. Nineteen crops (including all AMIS crops) designated as strategic by . i. Their imports had been halted since last 2016. of all edible farm produce containing GM  On 5 December 2016. fruit and currently huge maize supplies. the Secretariat of Agriculture. the Ministry of Trade in Egypt  On 15 December 2016. and will be disbursed in two The supply of GM seeds and the sale or importation annual instalments. processing and selling of for domestic subsidies. China restated its objective to double ethanol year. Heilongjiang Province in China the government. including AMIS crops. rice  On 13 and 20 December 2016 respectively. The review will be completed by 10  To diversify agricultural production. including maize and soybeans. The sale of GM consumer Protection Service announced plans to food will be confined to a special zone within institute control procedures to ensure that Heilongjiang Province. Furthermore. Accredited companies will be request of the US to examine the WTO-consistency responsible for pre-shipment inspection.  On 13 January 2017. prevailing in each zone. Livestock. the General Organization for Export market access restrictions to imports of US rice.45–February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor  In December 2016. The deadlines set for Biofuels comments are 13 and 17 February 2017. a and will coordinate with the quarantine authorities dispute settlement panel was established at the as appropriate. of China's domestic support policies for wheat. initiated a deadline for comments from the WTO Membership review into EU anti-dumping duties on biodiesel is 14 March 2017. and Import Control will be responsible for safety wheat and maize. on 20 December 2016. productivity and reduce water-intensive crops in structurally disadvantaged areas. as well as livestock. notably through tariff quota inspections upon the arrival of all grain shipments. requirements. Turkey launched a new agricultural subsidy programme in 2017. local governments have reportedly  On 25 January 2017. Ukraine's Food Safety and ingredients will also be prohibited. Rural Development.

1 169.6 166. US Gulf milled tight world supplies. .7% Rice 150 + 2. .5 184. Underpinning also came from quotations in India and Pakistan posted notable gains. touching about unfavourable weather for 2017 crops in some areas.0% +7.4 March 178.0 198.7 149. While the outlook for global supplies Buoyed by firmer markets in South Asia.0 164.3 *GOI: Grains and Oilseeds Index . . .4 April 187. even lower than anticipated winter wheat area in the US.6 164. .6 2017 January 193.9 159.2 150.3 146.1. . .7% +6. but logistical Average global soybean values were fractionally firmer in problems contributed to a recent slowdown in exports. prices in Thailand and Viet Nam were little changed quality milling wheat continued to be bolstered by relatively amid few fresh developments.1 205.4 197.0 182.4% Soybeans 201 +1.2 201.0 156. with the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index rising to its Rice highest since June 2016.7 190. . a fresh four-month peak recently.9 147.1 159. . Black Soybeans Sea milling wheat remained attractively priced.0 210. .2 192. January.4 Maize percent m/m. .2 February 177.4% +14.6% *Jan 2000=100. the IGC GOI availabilities remained a bearish underlying influence maize sub-Index notched 2 percent gains in January.4 203. including a particularly demand from key buyers in Africa and Asia.6 161.8 December 190. .9 180. where crops exceeded earlier expectations. . . price support was often linked to concerns Index advanced by around 2 percent during January. With Gulf FOB values at a discount to offers for Brazilian selling lent support to values in Argentina. .4 220. January 2000 = 100 . although bullish sentiment was values eased against the backdrop of lacklustre buying dampened by the near completion of harvests in Australia and interest.0 179. .6 158. IGC commodity price indices GOI* Wheat Maize Rice Soybeans ( .6 167. . the IGC GOI sub-Index posting a net gain of 1. to supported by tight local availabilities and signs of improved the smallest in more than 100 years. .5 November 189.2% +0. . Outside of Asia. . derived from daily export quotations Wheat with modest price increases stemming from logistical A firmer price tone prevailed in world wheat export markets constraints. . Prices for high region.4 163. .4 193.5 172. A rise in US prices was mainly underpinned by concerns about the impact of heavy rains and tied to buoyant export demand. 8 No. . the IGC GOI rice sub- remained ample. . .2 161. .6 175.7 205.4 156.5 June 212.1% . ) 2016 January 180. . . cumulative activity was seasonally quiet in the main Black Sea exporters.1 228.7 July 204.4% Wheat 163 + 4. .6 156. . world markets were recently for a second successive month. .0 150. Market soybeans was supportive.9 181.6 August 198.3 149.7 159. but with slow country flooding in central growing regions of Argentina. where concerns new crop supplies.7 159. firming throughout the month. 2016/17 (Sep/Aug) export commitments were nearly one- quarter higher y/y. international buying interest for US about recent volatile weather continued to mount. during January. A slow pace of producer area.9 175.6 186. .8 164.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor International prices International Grains Council (IGC) Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) and GOI sub-Indices Jan 2017 % Change Average* M/M Y/Y GOI 194 + 2. Although prospects for heavy global With net advances noted at all major origins.2 144. Elsewhere in the steep fall for hard red winter wheat (HRW).8 October 191.1 150.7 May 198. White and parboiled including in the US and the EU.2% Maize 184 + 1. .4 200.0 150.3 September 192.2 180. . Argentina. as at 12 January. underscored movement and uncertain South American crop prospects also by a downgrade to the official forecast for 2016/17 seeded providing occasional underpinning.5 172.9 162. .4 170.

9% Thailand THB 35.2% Rep.9% Egypt EGP 18. .8% Mexico MXN 21.06 -0.0% 0.3% 1. .32 1. . HRW) 30-Jan 201 208 191 213 -3.0% -16.8% -2. . .9% 1.0% -4. . .56 2.74 -7. . . . .36 0.6% Rice (Thai 100% B) 30-Jan 366 368 367 380 -0.39 -4.94 0.7% Japan JPY 114.7% Soybeans (US No.0% China CNY 6.2.0% -24. 2.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Selected export prices.6% UK GBP 0. . . .73 0.84 3.5% 21. .34 1. . . .45 0.3% India INR 68.34 -1. .0% EU EUR 0.4% -4.89 0.1% Canada CAD 1. .0% Viet Nam VND 22. Korea KRW 1.8% Kazakhstan KZT 330. .9% Australia AUD 1.1% Indonesia IDR 13.4% -16.180.4% -1.9% AMIS Countries' Currencies Against US Dollar AMIS January 2017 Monthly Annual Currency Countries Average Change Change Argentina ARS 15.9% Turkey TRY 3. .3% -18.0% South Africa ZAR 13.55 -1. . USD/tonne .2% -55. . . 2.15 -3.3% 22.0% . . . . .9% 9. .05 0.75 0. .3% -4.3% 3. .81 -1.6% 5.20 4.9 No. . ) Wheat (US No.8% Maize (US No.2% Saudi Arabia SAR 3.1% 7.7% Russian Fed.0% 2.7% 10.1% Philippines PHP 49. currencies and indices Daily quotations of selected export prices Effective Quotation Week ago Month ago Year ago % change % change Date (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) over (2) (1) over (4) ( .602.5% -137.5% -1.95 1. .90 -0. .7% Ukraine UAH 27.9% Brazil BRL 3. . Yellow) 30-Jan 392 407 389 354 -3. .4% -5.0% 16.43 0. . Yellow) 30-Jan 158 164 156 166 -3. RUB 59.362.5% -3.4% -12. .5% Nigeria NGN 308. .96 0.

while maize and soybeans soybeans.6 22.13.7 Soybeans 380 +1. respectively.0% .3 27. with net purchases of about increase in cumulative open interest around the third 110 000 contracts (14 million tonnes). its net long. Implied volatility reflected marginal changes m/m and particularly in maize and soybeans. Despite a managed money reversed its long held net short position drop in volume.5% . however. Rice prices rose steadily during January. Managed money turned active toward month end. some same (contango – upward sloping) as they have since analysts cited re-flation expectations as cause for the harvest.5% Wheat 27. experienced higher levels both m/m and y/y.9 14. Maize and soybeans volumes were about on par Investment flows y/y. Since beginning of January. Gulf export market. Traders from all higher prices. Soybeans exhibited a slightly reversal in the US dollar index following record highs in greater inverse (backwardation) between the July 2017 December. while historical volatility toward multi-month highs. maize and soybeans increased m/m. which for the nearby futures for maize and soybeans often resets price trends of the three commodities. as prices moved y/y for all three commodities. increased on continued strong export demand and Forward curves floods in Argentina.9 18. In wheat. A rise in barge freight due to navigation issues was partly attributable to the rise in export values. week of January. while in soybeans. to end up on average crop/new crop spread) as analysts predicted substantial about one percent m/m.7% -10. with the July contract gaining about Volumes and volatility USD 5 on the November m/m.4 25. In Illinois. maize and wheat sowings (HRW). Maize 18. Wheat and rice prices were switching of both maize and wheat acres into soybeans down 11 and 14 percent respectively y/y while soybeans during the upcoming US planting season.7 Source: CME Futures prices of January 19) continued to outpace last year’s levels by Prices for wheat. Commercials and small speculators Basis levels and transport (categorized as Other Reportables) took the other side of Basis levels for maize and soybeans remained weak in these transactions.0 17.1% +17.7% Rice 20. widened to USD 17. and November 2017 contracts (referred to as the old following the dip in December. This spread were higher by 17 percent and maize unchanged. wide margins: outstanding sales of about 39 million briefly reaching 7 month highs during the third week of tonnes were 55 percent higher y/y while cumulative January before reversing direction.3 26. m/m. noting also a successive contracts. rose modestly from multi- year seasonal lows seen in December. while soybean volumes dropped 13 percent barge loading stations. 10 No.3 17. Export sales (as . managed money marginally the interior as producers made post New Year sales at trimmed its net short position.5 Rice 213 +1. according to the CME.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Futures markets Futures Prices – nearby Historical Volatility – 30 Days. Wheat – the biggest exports of 72 million tonnes were 31 percent higher y/y gainer – rose on reports of a sharp drop in US hard red for the respective marketing years of wheat.4% Soybeans 19. Soft red winter wheat (SRW) Gulf export values were steady at about 20 USD per tonne over the March futures while interior values in northern Illinois remained at discounts to futures prices.3 Maize 142 +3. nearby % Change Monthly Averages Jan-17 Average M/M Y/Y Jan-17 Dec-16 Jan-16 Wheat 156 +6. while in Iowa the bids for the respective crops were minus USD 15 and minus USD 30 per tonne. while wheat volume was higher by 40 percent. the interior bids to local categories are said to be focused on the planting elevators were minus USD 7 and minus USD 11 per tonne intentions report based on the 1 March survey. to be quoted at around USD 18 for maize and USD 14 for soybeans over the respective March futures. varying only in absolute price levels of the price boost in equities and commodities. although open it added almost 90 000 contracts (12 million tonnes) to interest remained well below record. Sparse deliveries occurred on the January soybean contract despite negative basis Wheat and maize volumes rose m/m 80 and 70 percent levels quoted within the delivery area of Illinois River respectively. Amid general uncertainty over the Forward curves for wheat and maize appeared much the incoming US administration’s policy framework. soybean futures posted a record in maize to a net long.

Major Categories Net Length as percentage of Open Interest* *Disaggregated Futures Only.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Market indicators Daily quotations from leading exchanges .nearby futures CFTC Commitments of Traders . Though not all positions are reflected in the charts. 11 No. total long positions always equal total short positions. .

amis-outlook. 12 No.pdf .org/amis-monitoring/indicators/ For more information on technical terms please view the Glossary at the following link: http://www.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Forward Curves Historical and Implied Volatilities i AMIS Market indicators Some of the indicators covered in this report are updated regularly on the AMIS website. as well as other market indicators.org/fileadmin/user_upload/amis/docs/Market_monitor/Glossary.amis-outlook. can be found at: http://www. These.

10 per gallon in Ethanol receipts 1. NE and IL/eastern 2017* 2016 2016  Maize prices moved higher in January and have been on the corn belt average increase since September of last year. with an additional USD 0. NYSE  Ethanol prices declined sharply in January as production Ethanol (USD per gallon) 1.e. Ethanol/RBOB price ratio 94. commonly used as feedstuff. so the actual capacity is assumed to be 15.00 and by the end of January were running just under 80 percent Ethanol price (USD per gallon) 1. falling from positive margin over USD 0. .30 138. USD per gallon) per gallon in December to a loss of USD 0.65 1.15 Ethanol production (million gallons) Monthly production total 1 381 1 361 1 266 Annualized production pace 16 264 16 029 14 904 Based on USDA data and private sources * Estimated using available weekly data to date.50  DDGs prices continued to soften even as maize prices rose DDGs (USD per tonne) 100.55 0.22 -0.2% 121.55 0. it also highlights overall production capacity and the production volume that is mandated by public legislation.55 per gallon of production costs Ethanol Production Pace.49 1. Maize price (USD per tonne) 135. It uses current market prices for maize.10 0. NE and IL/eastern corn belt margins tumbled. producer IA.28 Nearby futures prices of the price of maize on a weight basis. gasoline nearby futures (NYSE).40 Maize costs 1.55 moving ethanol from a premium to gasoline to a discount.65 1.28  Gasoline futures held steady even as ethanol futures declined.31 0.25 1.28 January. but plants can exceed this level. Capacity and Mandate: Overview of the volume of maize-based ethanol production in the United States.40 103.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Monthly US ethanol update Spot prices Jan Dec Jan IA.20 average.32 0. i Chart and tables description Ethanol Production Margins: The ethanol margin gives an indication of the profitability of maize-based ethanol production in the United States.39 1.73 130. CME. Name‐plate (i.6 1.63 1.9% Ethanol margins  With rising input costs and falling output costs.36 reached record levels.2 billion gallons. nominal) ethanol production capacity in the US is roughly 14. DDGs: By-product of maize-based biofuel production.1 annualized basis for the second month in a row.9 billion gallons per annum.20 1.50 130. RBOB: Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending. 13 No.6 1. Production margin -0. Dried Distillers Grains (DDGs) and ethanol. exceeding 16 billion gallons on an RBOB Gasoline (USD per gallon) 1. DDGs receipts 0. Other costs 0.45 104.39 1.

0 DAP-Baltic 335.0 .4 565.4 Urea-Black Sea 235.0 . .1 0.7 0.3 14. Black Sea and Western Europe were averaged to obtain Ammonia Average prices.0 183. Middle East.03 -0. Natural Gas: Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price from ICE. -0.0 7.0 210. Prices are intraday prices averaged by month.7 Source: Bloomberg i Chart and tables description Ammonia and Urea: Overview of nitrogen-based fertilizer prices in the US Gulf.5 3.0 . Nitrogen production in Ukraine has also been negatively affected by diversion of natural gas supplies from Russia.0 225.16 -0. Note: calculations based on Bloomberg.3 305.6 191.2 363.0 310.  Potash m/m prices held steady despite the reopening of Canadian firms. Supplies in international markets were affected by reduced exports from China.  DAP m/m prices in both the US Gulf and the Baltic recovered after reaching a 12-month low. DAP: Diammonium Phosphate. fertilizers. Black Sea Prill and Mediterranean were averaged to obtain Urea Average prices. US GUlf Prill.17 -0.03 -0.8 Natural Gas 2.2 515. Prices are weekly prices averaged by month.0 0.1 347. Middle East Prill. Own elaboration based on Bloomberg.07 0.1 -0.4 3.1 0. % change last % change last 12-month high 12-month low average dev month year Ammonia-US Gulf NOLA 257.0 5.3 0.  The m/m price of natural gas fell.0 Potash-Vancouver 209. monthly average prices from Urea’s US Gulf NOLA.0 198. .0 Urea-US Gulf 249. -0.08 0.6 174.13 -0.0 DAP-US Gulf 309.3 300.4 5.0 300.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Fertilizer outlook Note: calculations based on Bloomberg.4 0. has weighed on supplies from China. the key driver of nitrogen costs in China.0 Ammonia Average 208.0 Potash-Baltic 198.6 6. Ammonia Average and Urea Average: Monthly average prices from Ammonia’s US Gulf NOLA.0 325.2 535. Output cuts by major producers have kept global inventories low. exports to Mexico have declined sharply due to peso weaknest Note: Natural gas is used as major input to produce nitrogen-based against the US dollar.1 447.0 Ammonia-Western Europe 328. Region January January std.2 0.5 0. Natural gas is used as major input to produce nitrogen-based fertilizers. Potash and Phosphate: Overview of phosphate and potassium-based fertilizer prices in the US Gulf. Additionally. .4 0.1 560.3 Urea Average 224. Baltic and Vancouver. rising coal prices. with both commercial and residential consumption declining in the US due to warmer-than-normal weather. Despite the elimination of the export tax. Prices are weekly prices averaged by month.0 209. 14 No. 0.0 8.  The average price of nitrogen-based fertilizers rose due to increased input costs.6 1.08 0. Western Europe and Black Sea.6 192.

and for Soybeans J F M A M J J A S O N D soybeans from October to September. in southern hemisphere countries India (3%) Planting c c Harvest the definition of the national marketing year is not the * Percentages refer to the global share of production (average 2013-15). China (17%) winter c c c Harvest Planting All totals (aggregates) are computed from unrounded data. However. Planting (peak) Harvest (peak) the USDA world stock level is based on an aggregate of stock levels as of 31 August for all countries. 1st crop c c Harvest Planting c Brazil (8%) FAO-AMIS production data refer to the season corresponding 2nd crop Planting c c c Harvest to the first year shown. early crop Planting c c Harvest kharif Planting c c Harvest Supply: Defined as production plus opening stocks. September 7. For soybeans. Apart from different release dates. CFTC. June 8. spring Planting c Harvest especially changes in stocks. CME Group. Reuters. the 2014 production is south Planting c c Harvest allocated to the 2014/15 marketing season). for rice and maize. IGC. Rice J F M A M J J A S O N D 2014) with production of the southern hemisphere of the intermediary crop Planting c c c Harvest second year (2015 production) in the corresponding 2014/15 China (29%) late crop Planting c C Harvest global marketing season. coinciding Planting Harvest with the end of the US marketing season. No major India (21%) rabi c Harvest differences across sources. utilization includes food. USDA and IGC aggregate production of the northern hemisphere of the first year (e. USDA. main Java c c Harvest Planting Utilization: For wheat. For rice. By contrast. No major differences across sources.GEOGLAM Crop Calendar Selected leading poducers The notions of tightening and easing used in the summary table of “World Supply and Demand” reflect judgmental views which Wheat J F M A M J J A S O N D take into account market fundamentals. December 7 Contacts and Subscritions Download the AMIS Market Monitor or get a free e-mail AMIS Secreteriat Email: subscription at: AMIS-Secreteriat@fao. IFPRI. industrial winter-spring c c Harvest Planting utilization and post-harvest losses). trade is main season Planting c c Harvest reported on a July/June marketing year basis. April 6. IGC and USDA. in the case of rice. Specifically: US (35%) Planting c c C Harvest Production: For wheat. same across the three sources as it depends on the methodology chosen to allocate production. India (13%) winter Planting c c Harvest World supply and demand estimates/forecasts in this report are spring Planting c c Harvest based on the latest data published by FAO. food and other uses. For maize and rice. July 6.org/amis-monitoring . which are reported on an second season c c c Harvest October/September basis. World Russia (8%) winter c c c Harvest Planting estimates and forecasts may vary due to several reasons. except for the Thailand (4%) USDA maize trade estimates. it comprises crush. For Soybeans. Brazil (29%) c c Harvest Planting c Stocks: In general. Trade between European USA (31%) Planting c c c Harvest Union member states is excluded. as for wheat. For wheat and maize. EU (7%) Planting c c c Harvest 2014 production also includes secondary crops gathered in Argentina (3%) Harvest Planting c c 2015. FAO. production data refer to the first year of north Planting c c Harvest China (22%) the marketing season shown (e. Indonesia (9%) second Java Planting c c c Harvest feed and other uses (“other uses” comprise seeds. November 2. GEOGLAM. trade covers flows from January to December of the second year shown. the C Weather conditions in this IGC and FAO-AMIS measure of world stocks is the sum of period are critical for yields. Viet Nam (6%) summer/autumn Planting c c Harvest winter Planting c c Harvest Trade: Data refer to exports. US Federal Reserve October 5. In the China (4%) Planting c c Harvest case of maize and rice.amis-outlook. maize and rice. this latter method is used by all three sources. February 2. By contrast. stocks refer to the sum of carry-overs at Argentina (18%) c c c Harvest Planting the close of each country’s national marketing year. March 2.45 – February 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Explanatory Notes AMIS . 15 No.g. the three main sources may apply different methodologies to construct the elements of the Maize J F M A M J J A S O N D balances. Main sources 2017 AMIS Market Monitor Release Dates Bloomberg. For soybeans.g. they also take into account information received spring Planting c c Harvest from AMIS countries (hence the notion “FAO-AMIS”). May 4. inter-alia price EU (21%)* winter c c Harvest Planting developments and short-term trends in demand and supply. for US (8%) winter c c Harvest Planting the former. Growing period carry-overs at the close of each country’s national marketing year.org www.